The ICISA INSIDER | April 2020 | ARTICLE
By Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit
Covid-19: Assessing the economic impact on China and the Asia-Pacific region The novel coronavirus—officially named COVID-19 by
The number of confirmed cases is thus now already 15
the World Health Organization (WHO)—and its rapid es-
times greater than the total number of SARS cases re-
calation have heightened concerns about the economic
corded in mainland China during that epidemic in 2003
damage to the Chinese economy as well as to the rest of
(5,327 persons according to the WHO).
the Asia-Pacific region. The escalation of new Covid-19
By Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit cases in a number of other Asia-Pacific countries, includ-
Mainland China has responded to the crisis by taking
ing South Korea and Japan, as well as in other coun-
strong measures to limit the spread of the new coro-
navirus strain, including a lockdown of many cities in Covid-19: Assessing the economic impact on China and the Asiahave also increased fears that the Covid-19 epidemic Hubei province. A total lockdown has been imposed on Pacific region may become more protracted and widespread, creating movements in and out of the provincial capital of Wutries worldwide, including in Europe and the Middle East,
wider global economic shockwaves. han, a megacity of around 11 million people, where the Summary The novel coronavirus—officially named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization (WHO)—and its rapid coronavirus is believed to have originated and where escalation have heightened concerns about the economic damage to the Chinese economy as well as to the Escalation of the COVID-19 epidemic the vast majority of cases are recorded. rest of the Asia-Pacific region. The escalation of new Covid-19 cases in a number of other Asia-Pacific The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in China in countries, including South Korea and Japan, as well as in other countries worldwide, including in Europe and January 2020 has developed into a major economic Disruption to China’s economic output the Middle East, have also increased fears that the Covid-19 epidemic may become more protracted and shock to the Chinese economy and the broader Asiawidespread, creating wider global economic shockwaves.
The virus has already caused significant negative shock
Pacific region. According to the WHO, the total number
waves in the Chinese economy, affecting retail trade,
of confirmed coronavirus cases in China had reached
tourism, and transport. In addition to restricting public
Escalation of the COVID-19 epidemic
80,174 on 2nd March 2020. This estimate includes transport movements in and out of certain badly imThe outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in China in January 2020 has developed into a major economic shock to the Chinese economy and the broader Asia-Pacific region. According to the WHO, the total number of both laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed (only pacted cities such as Wuhan, China has also banned all confirmed coronavirus cases in China had reached 80,174 on 2nd March 2020. This estimate includes both applicable to Hubei province) cases. group-tourism travel sales by travel agencies in China laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed (only applicable to Hubei province) cases.
The number of confirmed cases is thus now already 15 times greater than the total number of SARS cases for travel both within and outside of China, effective recorded in mainland China during that epidemic in 2003 (5,327 persons according to the WHO).
Covid-19 Cases in China
Jan-Feb 2020 Source: UN WHO *lab confirmed until 16th Feb, all diagnosis after
29th January 30th January 31st January 3rd February 4th February 5th February 6th February 7th February 8th February 9th February 10th February 11th February 12th February 13th February 14th February 15th February 16th February 17th February 18th February 19th February 20th February 21st February 22nd February 23rd February 24th February 25th February 26th February 27th February 28th February 29th February 1st March 2nd March
90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
6
