WHAT’S NEW WITH SCHOOL BONDS? HOW PASSING A SCHOOL BOND HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST DECADE
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magine it’s 2013. For anyone over the age of 35, that probably doesn’t seem so long ago. After all, some things haven’t changed. Taylor Swift is still reigning on the pop charts, and many of us still while away our time watching short, funny videos on our phones—only on TikTok now instead of Vine. But in more serious ways, the world is a much different place than it was 10 years ago. Gen Z has replaced millennials as the youngest segment of the workforce, and it’s not an overstatement to say that the global pandemic changed everything. Against this backdrop of sweeping changes, school bonds have changed, too. What was once a humdrum process now has all the markers of fully fledged political intrigue. But what can a school leader do to deal with all these shifts? The first step is learning what has and hasn’t changed over time.
What’s Changed? The Playing Field During the pandemic, many districts held off on running bond campaigns, fearing low voter turnout. This led to a rush of bonds in 2022 and 2023 once pandemic restrictions were lifted. And while national analysis about post-pandemic bonds is still very much in the research phase, one certainty is clear: The playing field is different.
The environment is more political. You don’t need us to tell you that the political environment is more polarized than ever. As a result, school bonds and levies have also become more politicized. While most voters have positive perceptions of their local schools, national approval of public schools has decreased since the pandemic, and many districts find themselves having to work harder than ever for stakeholder support. Politics, of course, don’t stop when you enter your school buildings. Experts are quick to point to one important factor for school referendum success: the unilateral approval of the school board. At a time when some school boards are more fractured than ever, this is a tall ask for many districts. The
reality is that most board candidates run for school board with an agenda—and if the details of your bond don’t support their agenda, they likely won’t support your campaign. The act of voting itself has also changed. According to Paul Hanley, the managing director of pre-referendum consulting firm Beyond Your Base, you can no longer count on the majority of voting to happen on Election Day. “More and more voters are voting early, either in person or via absentee ballot,” Hanley explains. “Campaign timelines need to factor in this growing number of early voters. Fortunately, data is often available to determine who voted early in previous elections, at least when it comes to general elections. This allows the campaign to develop two separate timelines— one for early voters and one for Election Day voters.”
Your bond doesn’t have to please everyone, but it does need to appeal broadly to different parts of your community. All of this speaks to the necessity of crafting a bond campaign that aligns with the goals of both your community and your district. Your bond doesn’t have to please everyone, but it does need to appeal broadly to different parts of your community. And because the timeline itself has changed, you need to build this strategy from the beginning to win over as many voters as possible.
Bond packages are under more scrutiny. Inflation has also impacted the world of school bonds. Throughout his career, Hanley has observed a steep rise in the cost of the average bond campaign, mostly due to inflation. “Driven primarily by construction inflation and aging infrastructure, school bond measures keep getting bigger,” SUMMER 2023 /
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