Fail

It’s disappointing—if not downright devastating—to see months of work end in a failed bond referendum. But even if your election didn’t go the way you hoped, it’s important not to lose heart. A failure is an opportunity not to beat yourself up, but to learn from the experience and prepare your school community to move forward.

Conduct a post-election analysis.

For advice on next steps, we turn to Dr. Don Lifto, an expert on school referendums and the co-author of School Tax Elections: Planning for Success in the New Normal. According to Lifto, one of your top priorities should be conducting a post-election analysis, or PEA.

The PEA “is not a survey,” Lifto explains. “It’s not asking anybody their opinions about anything. It’s a profile comparing the demographics of your whole registered voter base to the demographics of who actually showed up to vote.” Conducting a PEA is a useful exercise no matter the outcome of your election, but it’s particularly necessary in the event of a failure. “After winning, it paints you a demographic picture of how you won,” Lifto says. “But after losing, it provides a roadmap for what needs to change in the demographics of turnout to get a successful outcome next time.”

The process for obtaining voter data varies from state to state, but in general, you can get a voter file for election research from the county or state agency that oversaw your election. (Commercial vendors are also a potentially easier and more cost-effective option; Lifto recommends Washington-based vendor L2.) This file will give you a wealth of demographic information about all the registered voters in your community, including which elections they’ve turned out for in the past.

As Lifto points out, an annotated voter file is an invaluable asset in the initial planning of a school bond—but after the fact, it can also help you determine your campaign’s weak points. Here are a few critical points to consider in your postelection analysis.

Parent turnout

According to Lifto, as you look at your election results, you always want to see parents and guardians overrepresented. This simply means that if, say, 30% of registered voters are parents, you want parents to make up more than 30% of those who actually voted. After all, voting “Yes” should be a no-brainer for people with children, who stand to directly benefit from improved schools.

This is probably the easiest thing for a bond campaign to get right—so if parents and guardians are underrepresented, it’s a sign that something’s gone horribly wrong. “Either there was a serious flaw in the planning and/or execution of the campaign or the district’s proposal was significantly out of alignment with the priorities of the parent population,” Lifto writes in School Tax Elections. Before you conduct a future bond or levy campaign, it will be crucial to consult with your community more extensively—especially families—to make sure your proposal reflects their most pressing concerns.

Even if parents are overrepresented, though, further examination of this population is in order. What percent of all parents or guardians who are registered voters actually showed up to the polls? You want that percentage to be as high as possible—to “maximize the parent vote,” as Lifto puts it.

Isolating your parent data into smaller categories will help you determine how to do this in the future. For example, did some neighborhoods see a stronger parent turnout than others? If so, you might reexamine your campus-by-campus messaging. Was it clear what each neighborhood’s school stood to gain from the bond? Your district’s families are your most natural supporters—so it’s crucial to do everything you can to get them to the ballot box.

Other supporters

Throughout your campaign, you should have identified supporters of the bond—people you were confident would vote “Yes.” Compare that list to the actual Election Day data. What percent of those supporters actually made it to the polls?

Ideally, this group should also be overrepresented in your final results. If they’re not (or even if they are), break down your data even further to determine any patterns, just as you did with the parent population. Lifto recommends “looking at the gender, age, party affiliation, and geographic location of identified supporters.” If only a few of your supportive older adults voted, for example, you might consider coordinating a stronger effort to offer rides to the polls next go-round. Whatever you discover, you’ll have an idea of which specific groups to target and monitor better in your future campaigns.

Timing

The timing of your election could also be the determining factor in whether your bond passes or fails. “Too many districts make the assumption that all elections are alike. They are not,” Lifto writes. “Each election has a character that is defined by the types of candidates or issues that appear on the ballot alongside the district’s proposal as well as the year and month of the election.”

According to data from nonpartisan research organization FairVote, registered voter turnout in the U.S. hovers around 60% for presidential elections and 40% for midterm elections. Turnout in local, odd-year elections is generally even lower—usually less than 27%. So which is better for a school tax election? Well, it depends.

“Every state has its own unique laws on when you can run a bond or levy, but when you have options, the general rule is to evaluate the demographics of your community,” says Lifto. “If the majority of your registered voters are progressives or leaning that direction, you want as big a turnout as possible—because progressive voters are more likely to vote ‘Yes’ for a school bond. If the opposite is the case—if the makeup of the school district is very conservative—a smaller turnout is to your advantage.”

Based on your community’s demographics, would you have benefitted from a lower or higher overall turnout in your last election? Adjust the timing of your next vote accordingly.

Never fall out of touch.

Even if your bond didn’t go the way you planned, now is not the time to fall silent; it’s time to rethink and renew your strategies for community engagement. After all, if you’re only communicating with your constituents when you want something from them, you’re unlikely to ever get enough “Yes” votes to move the needle.

So thank your supporters and organizers for their hard work. Keep them updated on what you learn from your postelection analysis and what you plan to do going forward. The more you communicate with your audience, the better chance you’ll have of getting your next bond passed.