Addressing the growing challenge of space traffic and debris
Satellite communications are an essential part of modern life, enabling everything from global internet access to weather forecasting and military operations. However, with the rapid increase in satellite and other deployments, managing the evergrowing volume of space traffic is proving to be a challenge.
Paul J Kostek, IEEE Life Senior Member and Systems Engineer at Air Direct Solutions LLC
As of December 2024, there were over 14,000 active satellites orbiting Earth, alongside approximately 120 million pieces of debris, ranging from defunct satellites to tiny fragments of paint that can still pose serious risks to operational spacecraft. The European Space Agency (ESA) estimates that over 39,000 pieces of debris larger than 10cm are currently being tracked. However, the number of objects that have broken up or collided is rising year-on-year, posing even further congestion and collision risks. This refers to a scenario coined by NASA scientist Kessler in 1978, known as Kessler Syndrome, where over time, cascading collisions have the potential to generate so much debris that entire orbital regions become unusable for other satellites or space vehicle launches.
THE RISKS POSED BY SATELLITE COLLISIONS
As Kessler theorised, the aftermath of satellite or ‘space junk’ collisions can prove devastating. When two satellites crash, they can generate thousands of high-speed debris fragments, each capable of causing significant damage to other spacecraft. These fragments travel at speeds of up to 28,000 km/h, making even small pieces of debris potentially catastrophic upon impact.
However, industry leaders have expressed concern over the risk ‘space junk’ poses to vital communications and services. Considering the number of active satellites in orbit today with some reports suggesting that by 2030, there could be more than 60,000 active satellites in space – a collision could lead to widespread signal disruptions or network blackouts.
One of the most recent examples of a collision risk occurred earlier this year, when two non-manoeuvrable orbiting spacecraft objects – NASA’s Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics Mission (TIMED) spacecraft and the Russian Cosmos 2221 satellite – passed one another at an altitude of about 373 miles
(600 km). NASA and the United States (US) Department of Defence are closely monitoring the situation and working with industry leaders to establish a better understanding of the risk other objects may pose.
THE URGENT NEED FOR A TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Industry discussions have centred on the urgent need to improve the real-time tracking of objects, as well as satellite traffic management and identification of methods to remove debris or satellites that are near end-of-life. In most cases, satellites remain in orbit despite being inactive for a number of years. The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has already proposed that US-based operators either move satellites near the end of life to higher orbits or position them lower so they can be deorbited within five years of completing their missions.
Besides the handling of decommissioned satellites by moving them to higher orbits, or deorbiting them, some leaders have suggested finding ways to service and extend their life. This includes refuelling satellites and providing updates to software and systems to create new uses, rather than launching a replacement. Other initiatives include the likes of the ESA’s RemoveDEBRIS mission which successfully tested a net capture system for collecting space debris. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) has also been exploring the use of a ground-based laser system to deorbit smaller pieces of debris and other space junk.
Some more experimental projects have involved using electrodynamic tethers to deorbit space debris by drawing electrical current through a long, conductive wire, creating drag and causing the debris to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere. Other research groups have even considered replacing the conventional alloys used in satellite design with plywood, to demonstrate how biodegradable components could help reduce future debris or compliment future space missions.
NASA, ESA, and private companies are investing in these initiatives to ensure a sustainable orbital environment for future generations. However, there will need to be further international cooperation between nations and enterprises and potentially a unified framework or
Paul J Kostek, IEEE Life Senior Member and Systems Engineer at Air Direct Solutions LLC
guidelines for other launches if these projects are to be successful.
GLOBAL COOPERATION
The level of danger posed by space debris in the atmosphere could be decreased through the implementation of Space Traffic Management (STM) which could monitor and operate both commercial and government space systems (satellites, space stations) in real-time. Moving forward, satellites must be designed with safety and long-term sustainability in mind.
Satellites and other space systems like space stations will need to have the capabilities to detect, and if needed, manoeuvre away from debris in real-time. Those enterprises responsible for building satellites should also consider hardening the systems to handle hits by small pieces or have systems in place that deflect or capture debris. However, it is important to note that the former carries the risk of sending the debris into the path of another satellite or vehicle.
Governments and enterprises will also need to address the impact of bad actors – whether government sponsored or independent – hacking satellites to control operations, spoof data, or change orbits.
This will require companies to include cybersecurity
as part of their overall satellite strategy and possibly the launch providers, including cybersecurity, as a requirement for launching a payload.
AN INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT: THE FINAL FRONTIER
The huge surge in the construction of satellite constellations in low Earth orbit (LEO) presents serious logistical challenges, many of which operators may not have encountered before. As satellite deployments continue to rise, ensuring the long-term sustainability of space operations is more critical than ever. This includes the allocation of frequencies for these systems and overall traffic management as well as managing the increasing volume of small satellites as they reach the end of their life span.
Governments, space agencies, and private companies must work together to enhance space traffic management, improve tracking systems, and develop new technologies for debris removal. The industry must discuss how space will be used and managed to avoid further collisions and address the ever-growing volume of space debris. If left unaddressed, this situation could threaten not only satellite communications but also future space exploration as well. Proactive measures today will help maintain a safe and functional space environment for decades to come.
Photo courtesy Shutterstock/Johan Swanepoel
