Article – Tony Alexander: What Kiwis should expect from the ‘bad luck’ Budget.
06.
Sandringham Sales Statistics
April 2025
12. Auction Update with Cameron Brain
16. Our month in Review Top Stories & Events from the City Realty Group
20.
Article – Kelvin Davidson: Wednesday’s OCR decision: What are the odds of another big drop in interest rates?
26. Why choose us?
22. LoanMarket Update Reading Between the Lines of the Reserve Bank’s Latest Move
28. Ray White Sandringham & Mount Roskill team
Plenty to watch as 2025 unfolds..
Uncertainty continues to shape the New Zealand property market, with ongoing global trade tensions keeping both buyers and sellers alert. As CoreLogic Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson recently noted, “These are uncertain times for New Zealand, with no one quite sure what impact the global trade war will have on interest rates and property prices.”
Despite the challenges, Davidson believes there is still upside in the market: “All in all, there are both supports and restraints for the housing market in 2025, suggesting that a modest rise in values of perhaps 5% remains on the cards this year.”
In April, the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.75% to 3.50%, a widely expected move in response to stable inflation and a subdued economy. However, the MPC’s accompanying statement highlighted global tariffs and trade uncertainty as ongoing risks, making future movements harder to predict.
Then came Budget 2025.
According to the NZ Herald / OneRoof (22 May 2025), the Budget delivered “no surprises for the housing market.” In fact, housing barely featured in Finance Minister Nicola Willis’s speech. However, the Budget’s Economic and Fiscal Update forecasted a rebound in property prices, tipping 5.6% growth by 2026.
Ray White New Zealand also weighed in:
“Budget 2025 provides little immediate relief for the property market but sets the stage for future stability through infrastructure investments.”
From a local perspective, Daniel Horrobin, Director of City Realty Group, commented:
“There were no major surprises in the Budget for us, but we’re watching closely and hopeful that another 25 basis point cut will be announced in the next OCR review on May 28.”
Horrobin also noted a lift in activity across the business:
“May has been a strong listing month for us, which is encouraging as we move into the winter period. We’re particularly looking forward to a major auction event on 29 May, with over 20 properties set to go under the hammer in our central city auction room.”
The vendor pool reflects a broad demographic mix, he adds:
“We’re working with sellers across New Zealand, the UK, Australia, and the Persian Gulf. It brings a diverse, international flavour — although the time zones can be a bit of a juggling act.”
Closer to home, there’s renewed optimism for Auckland’s city centre. As reported by Stuff, Deputy Mayor Viv Beck recently stated:
“Our top priority is to attract more people here to enjoy all the great things that are on, which will only get better as a decade of major construction comes to an end.”
A welcome outlook for those of us who live, work and invest in the heart of the city.
“May
has been a strong listing month for us, which is encouraging as we move into the winter period.”
Total Sales
April 2025
13
April 2024
15
There was a -13% decrease in the total number of sales year on year.
Total Sales Value Median Sales Price Median Days On Market
April 2025
$18,732,000
April 2024
$18,937,500
There was a -1% decrease in the total sales value year on year.
Source: REINZ
April 2025
$1,298,000
April 2024
$1,099,500
There was a +18% increase in the total median sale price year on year.
April 2025
43
April 2024
45
There was a -4% decrease in the total median DOM year on year.
Sandringham Recent Sales.
Mount Roskill Market Statistics.
Total Sales
March 2025
22
March 2024
There was a -40% decrease in the total number of sales year on year.
Total Sales Value
March 2025
$24,987,150
March 2024
Median Sales Price
March 2025
$1,090,500
March 2024
37 $39,473,294 $1,020,000
There was a -36% decrease in the total sales value year on year.
Source: REINZ
There was a 6.7% increase in the total median sale price year on year.
Median Days On Market
March 2025
39
March 2024
44.5
There was a -12% decrease in the total median DOM year on year.
Mount Roskill Recent Sales.
Mount Roskill Listings.
Some of our Recent Sales
11 Nikau Street, New Lynn
Marketed by Susan Woods-Markwick & Hugh Free
Immaculate 3-bed character home on a full site
Opening bid: $600K 36 bids later…
SOLD for $998,000
7 Horoeka Avenue, Mt Eden
Marketed by Diane Goer
Original villa on 1105m², first time on the market in 89 years
Opening bid: $500K 92 bids from 13 bidders… SOLD for $3,290,000
May 28th & 29th 2025
City Realty Group Auction Report.
As the Government’s Budget made headlines this month, the real estate market responded with steady optimism. While no major housing initiatives were announced, the Auckland property market appears well-positioned for a gradual recovery through the second half of 2025.
Interest rates remain a critical factor, with many buyers still anticipating movement—yet confidence is building. Despite a modest dip in average open home attendance, the number of active bidders at auction continues to climb, reinforcing signs of renewed momentum.
This optimism was clearly on display at our Ray White Sandringham auctions earlier this week. With only two properties offered, the auction room was buzzing with energy—proof that smaller lineups can still pack a punch when the campaign is run right.
Results from Sandringham Auctions:
• 11 Nikau Street, New Lynn
SOLD under the hammer for $998,000
• 7 Horoeka Avenue, Mt Eden
SOLD under the hammer for $3,290,000
Nineteen registered bidders competed across the two properties, creating a dynamic auction environment and outstanding outcomes for both sellers.
Cameron Brain, Director of Sales & Auctions and Lead Auctioneer, reflected on the event: “Today’s success reflects the outstanding campaign efforts from Susan, Hugh, and Diane, as well as the compelling nature of the properties. After a quieter period, it was fantastic to see such strong buyer engagement.”
Looking ahead, the momentum is set to continue, with 35 auctions scheduled across the Ray White City Realty Group network next week. As we head into the winter months, all signs point to a busy and exciting market.
Tony Alexander: What Kiwis should expect from the ‘bad luck’ Budget.
Why the economic outlook could challenge the need for optimism.
ANALYSIS: When the Minister of Finance delivers her Budget on Thursday the projections for Crown receipts and expenses will be based upon a particular set of forecasts put together by Treasury. While they are certain to note the downside risks to our growth and therefore tax flows from the disturbing tariff developments in the United States, chances are their numbers will be too optimistic – in the short term, at least.
This risk exists because the figures we have received since Treasury’s forecast cutoff date over a month ago have fallen mainly on the weak side. For instance, spending with debit and credit cards fell 0.2% after falling 1.6% in March, which means spending eased 0.8% in the last
three months after growing 1.1% in the three months to January. The summer lift in spending has reversed, which means times are still challenging for retailers.
Average house prices nationwide fell by another 0.3% in April after declining 0.6% in March. The net migration flow for March of 2314 people was down from 3541 a year ago and the weakest March result outside of the pandemic period since 2013.
The factors driving these poor numbers have also appeared in my various economic surveys. My latest housing market survey with NZHL found that FOMO has almost disappeared again, and that agents are seeing fewer people at auctions and open homes.
Will New Zealand interest rates and inflation go up or down as a result of global instability?
Photo / Fiona Goodall
In the rental sector, a record net 33% of landlords in the survey I run with Crockers Property Management said they were finding it hard to get a good tenant. A year ago, a net 14% said it was easy.
My most recent survey of Kiwi spending plans found that fewer respondents planned to buy things like motor vehicles and sports equipment.
In my survey of businesses with MintHC, the comments on current conditions submitted by respondents are so negative that if I had no numerical outputs to challenge the pessimism, I’d probably conclude our economy was back in recession again. Businesspeople are disappointed that, having survived to 2025, things are not much better than last year.
Margins are being squeezed, and cash flows are compromised, which means more businesses will close.
This sounds fairly dire, but my intent is to
convey an awareness that the economy is not thriving, not that it is going backwards again. Good growth stimulus is coming from the so-far 2% fall in interest rates, and our pastoral farmers and horticulturalists are getting good prices at home and abroad. It’s just that the growth doesn’t look like it will be strong enough this year to easily cover up the inevitable mistakes we all make in our businesses now and again. New customer flows will remain relatively constrained.
In this regard, it is a bit of bad luck that the Government needs to put in place measures to reverse the previous administration’s overspending and set the Crown’s accounts on a more sustainable path. Fiscal policy has to be tightened in readiness for the next shock, to handle growing bills derived from our aging population, and to stop credit rating downgrades as the United States suffered last Friday night.
- Tony Alexander is an independent economics commentator. Additional commentary from him can be found at www.tonyalexander.nz
@raywhiteaucklandcentral
@raywhitewynyardquarter
@raywhitesandringham
@raywhite.mtroskill
Leading Ladies Of Real Estate.
More than 150 real estate professionals gathered at MediaWorks for the highly anticipated ‘Canapes and Conversation’ event, hosted by Leading Ladies of Real Estate.
A brilliant evening for our CRG ladies at Canapés and Conversations — a truly inspiring event. Congratulations to Larissa Tuhaka and the Ray White Head Office team for organising an exceptional night, from bubbles and canapés on arrival to Lou Heller’s powerful keynote, live styling session, and Q&A. We’re proud to have our team part of such a dynamic celebration of leadership, confidence, and connection.
What a show at Sandringham!
Lead Auctioneer Cameron Brain said it best:
“Strong campaigns and standout properties delivered big results. After a quieter period, this momentum is great to see.”
With 19 registered bidders, the energy was high and the results spoke for themselves.
SOLD | 11 Nikau Street, New Lynn, Marketed by Susan Woods-Markwick & Hugh Free
Immaculate 3-bed character home on a full site, Opening bid: $600K, 36 bids later…
SOLD for $998,000
SOLD | 7 Horoeka Avenue, Mt Eden, Marketed by Diane Goer
Original villa on 1105m², first time on the market in 89 years, Opening bid: $500K, 92 bids from 13 bidders… SOLD for $3,290,000
Birthday Wishes...
Happy Birthday to Benjamin and Pantea from our Ray White Mt Roskill office.
Open House!
Newly recruited to our Ray White Mount Roskill team - Rahul Sonera - kicked off his first weekend of busy open homes in Te Atatu. But back in the office, Ray White Mount Roskill agents were awareded for their recent efforts. Well done everyone.
Kelvin
Davidson: Wednesday’s OCR decision: What are the odds of another big drop in interest rates?
The five things you need to know about the housing market this week.
1. Nothing much to note for housing in the Budget
Last week’s Budget contained a relatively standard set of economic projections (e.g. GDP growth set to slowly improve, inflation broadly under control) and there also wasn’t much to note from a property perspective either, as expected.
I guess the most relevant, indirect policy change was around KiwiSaver, with both employer and employee contributions set to rise to 4% minimum over the next few years, but the Government contribution being scaled back. This might mean budding first-home buyers will have access to bigger deposits when it comes time for them to
tap their funds (if they want/need to), but perhaps not dramatically so.
On the whole, then, the Budget will probably come and go quickly from a housing perspective. But from a wider perspective, tight Budgets seemingly lie ahead.
2. ‘Business as usual’ for the market
Our recent monthly wrap-up of everything property-related confirmed that the market is essentially in a holding pattern at present. Sales are rising, but slowly, as are property values. Buyers can generally get finance and have plenty of choice amongst the
The housing market is expecting another interest rate cut this Wednesday. Photo / Fiona Goodall
stock of listings on the market; but vendors aren’t capitulating either. First-home buyers remain active, and investors are seeing opportunities.
In other words, to the extent that you could ever call our housing market ‘balanced’, it’s probably now – and these calm conditions could well continue throughout 2025, as the effects of lower mortgage rates are counter-balanced by the subdued economy and lurking credit restraints such as debtto-income ratio limits.
3. ‘Green shoots’?
Speaking of the economy, it’s certainly not racing away, but perhaps not going backwards anymore either. On one hand, it was disappointing last week to see the BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for April signal another fall in activity in this all-important sector. But April’s NZ Activity Index from Stats NZ, by contrast, continued to improve (up by 1.6% from a year ago). As has been the case for a while now, the economy continues to show mixed results.
4. Another cash rate cut looms
As such, and also given that inflation is just about still holding within the 1-3% target range, it seems highly likely that the Reserve Bank will deliver another 0.25 percentage point cut to the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday. But I’d say most focus will be on the tone of their commentary (e.g. around the medium-term effects of tariffs and global uncertainty), as well as their published forecasts for things like GDP, inflation, employment, house prices, and of course the OCR itself. Don’t be surprised if they hold back from committing too strongly to any one particular course of action ahead.
5. Still a lot of people switching banks?
I’ll also be watching the Reserve Bank’s data release on mortgage lending this week, especially the splits by debt-to-income ratio and by loan type (e.g. house purchase, bank switch). In recent months, borrowers have been very willing to swap lenders, due to incentives such as cash-backs, but also the short-term nature of their existing loans, meaning they’re not facing any break fees to get out of longer-term mortgages.
CoreLogic chief economist Kelvin Davidson: “Look for more OCR cuts over the coming months.” Photo / Peter Meecham
Reading Between the Lines of the Reserve Bank’s Latest Move
In the latest OCR announcement from the Reserve Bank on April 9th we got the expected -0.25% cut to bring the Official Cash rates to 3.50%.
This was pretty much baked in before the previous Reserve Bank Governor resigned unexpectedly in March.
There have been so many conflicting signals from both the Trump administration overseas but also a lot of economists back here in NZ can’t seem to agree on what all this will mean for interest rates. Some say it will push rates up, and some say it will push rates down further. Even some of the wording in the Reserve Bank announcement was quite diversive.
Past events such as the Global Financial Crisis or the Pandemic had a forceable outcome that could be
managed and although difficult at the time had a predictable end one way or another. Unfortunately this one does not and can change very quickly.
The volatility in the bond markets is so high currently that interest rates could literally rise and fall overnight, so I would expect the banks might adopt a wait and see attitude with their interest rates in the next couple of weeks as this event plays out.
What should I do if I have a fixed rate coming due? Or if I am currently on a floating rate?
1. You need to make a decision based on your own circumstances, affordability, your risk appetite etc
2. If you want to hedge your bets, you can split your lending, some short term, some longer term, like 2 years plus
What you have to do now and go with what’s best for your circumstances, make a call and just go with it.
We still believe interest rates are near the end of the current market cycle, and they will settle in the 4% range somewhere.
The annual student migration
is upon us! So what better time to discuss...
Here are our top 7 tips to get your apartment student-ready. The start of 2025 is in full swing and it’s that time of the year when students return to University to start the new semester. With this newsletter we aim to provide insights for Auckland property managers and apartment owners on how to prepare rentals for returning students.
Tips to get your apartment student-ready:
Clean appliances
• Check appliances and clean if needed, to provide a cleaner and healthier cooking environment for students.
• Ensure air-conditioning service is up to date as the air conditioner will be useful when students stay indoors to focus on their studies during hot summer/autumn days.
Cool Off
• Make sure the apartment’s insulation and weather strips are up to standard. This will keep the apartment cool during summer just as it keeps it warm during winter. It will prevent cold air from escaping the room when the air conditioner or fan is used.
Create an inviting indoor space
• Replace lighting with energy efficient light bulbs such as LED fittings. Lighting is essential for students to excel in their studies. Change out old lightbulbs if required or provide a lamp on the study desk.
• Bring a touch of nature to your indoor space with plants. A variety of indoor plants will create a fresh summer vibe in the apartment. It will not only add visual interest to the room but can also improve air quality.
Create an outdoor space
• Inspect the patio or decking, make sure it’s clean and check if the flooring of the deck is up to standard.
• Create an inviting outdoor space by adding decorations and planters to provide more colors. In apartments and apartment buildings with outdoor space, students will enjoy getting some fresh air in their spare time.
Repaint apartment walls
• Repaint walls with lighter colors. We recommend using neutral colors as it will create a bright and inviting apartment space which will be beneficial for students studying indoors.
Furniture
• Think about what students need in a functional living space. Furniture like a study desk, comfortable chair, bookshelf etc. is essential for student life.
Remodel or renovate
• Is the apartment outdated and in need of remodeling? Transform the living space into a stylish, comfortable and practical apartment for current or new tenants. Benefits of renovating include an increase in property value of a current investment and provide an advantage for future sale.
Why choose us?
City Realty Group is the largest Ray White franchise in New Zealand with offices throughout Auckland. It is the group with the ‘family factor’ - we’re family owned and we treat people like family. We’re all about open doors and open minds. We encourage a unifying atmosphere where opportunities are created, individuals are recognized and everyone grows - from our team to vendors, investors and tenants.
Our experienced and established team service the market Auckland wide -from Residential, Luxury Apartments, waterfront properties and rentals. With a dedicated property management team and marine brokerage teams. City Realty Group has a strategic partnership with Loan Market to provide clients with the best mortgage advice and rates through brokers.
+64 (9) 281 4707
www.rwsandringham.co.nz
+64 (9) 308 5551
www.rwmtroskill.co.nz
Leaders in the Auckland Residential market.
Ray White Sandringham
Ray White Mount Roskill
Meet the team.
SALES TEAM - SANDRINGHAM OFFICE
Pauline Bridgman
Amy Tsai
Kate Jiang
Diane Goer
Emily Hu
Ivan Koulin
Hugh Free
Daniel Chen
Lauren Indrisie
Alastair Hubbard
Ash Anandani
Jay Nair
Susan Woods -Markwick
Rosa Solano
Ren Agnew
Tracey Potter
Tim Cai
Yuhei Umezaki
Sammy Agnew
Claire Firmin
Lakhbir Singh
SALES TEAM - MOUNT ROSKILL OFFICE
OUR LOANMARKET MORTGAGE ADVISORS
WE CAN NEGOTIATE A LOWER RATE. WORK WITH A QUALIFIED AND COMPETENT MORTGAGE ADVISER
