Monthly Market Report - April 2025 - Sandringham & Mount Roskill
Market Report.
Part of the group with a family factor.
CITY REALTY GROUP CREATE RECOGNISE GROW
04.
Market CommentPositive momentum, but still a few speed bumps ahead...
08. Mount Roskill Sales Statistics
March 2025
14. Article – Tony Alexander: Global trade war’s effect on house prices - the good, bad and ugly
20.
Article – Kelvin Davidson: What the rise in inflation means for house prices and mortgage rates
26. Why choose us?
06.
Sandringham Sales Statistics
March 2025
12. Auction Update with Cameron Brain
16. Our month in Review Top Stories & Events from the City Realty Group
22. LoanMarket Update Tariffs, Inflation & OCR: Your Mortgage Outlook.
28. Ray White Sandringham & Mount Roskill team
Positive momentum, but still a few speed bumps ahead...
“We’re definitely seeing signs of momentum,” says Daniel Horrobin, Director of City Realty Group. “The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has now cut the Official Cash Rate at five consecutive policy meetings — and there’s speculation a sixth cut could come at the next announcement on May 28th.”
In response, the major banks have started to move. Stuff reported on 16 April that floating mortgage rates were dropped almost immediately after the last OCR cut, and fixed rates are now dipping below 5%.
From a sales perspective, the shift is starting to show in the numbers. The latest REINZ report (15 April) reveals continued year-onyear growth in sales volumes nationwide — carrying on from the strong momentum seen last month.
CoreLogic agrees, stating, “The next phase in New Zealand’s property market has begun.” Their data from Q1 shows a notable drop in the number of suburbs experiencing price declines — a signal, they say, that the early stages of an upturn are underway.
Michael Gordon, Chief Economist at Westpac, backs this up, noting that house prices have been ticking up in recent months, with lower interest rates helping to reignite buyer interest.
That said, not everyone is ready to pop the champagne. Economist Tony Alexander highlights the global uncertainty at play:
“None of us has experience of what happens during a tariff war, or a potential decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies… Any forecast — including mine — is likely to be wrong.”
Still, he notes New Zealand is better positioned than many to weather the storm. Only 13% of our exports go to the US, and most products affected by tariffs are in volatile categories where price swings are expected.
Back Home in Auckland...
“Inquiry levels are steady and open home attendance remains consistent,” says Daniel. “But with more than 600 apartments currently on the market in the central city, buyers are spoiled for choice — and that’s creating a noticeable drag on urgency.”
In Rentals – A Shift is Underway
We’re also seeing major changes in the rental market. Stuff (23 April) reported that national rental listings hit a 10-year high in March, with Trade Me Property showing a 41% increase compared to the same month in 2024.
That trend is very much reflected in Auckland’s central city, where landlords are being forced to reassess their rent expectations. “It’s a case of adjusting to where the market is, or risking long-term vacancies,” says Daniel.
Looking Ahead
“Onwards and upwards,” Daniel adds. “We’re heading into another strong auction event at the end of May, and despite the headwinds, we’re seeing good opportunities — if you’ve got the right strategy and a committed team behind you.”
“Inquiry levels are steady and open home attendance remains consistent,”Inquiry levels are steady and open home attendance remains consistent.”
Sandringham Market Statistics.
Total Sales
March 2025
18
March 2024
23
There was a -21% decrease in the total number of sales year on year.
Total Sales Value
March 2025
$24,060,000
March 2024
March 2025
$1,260,000
March 2024
$29,089,000 $1,125,000
There was a -17% decrease in the total sales value year on year.
Source: REINZ
There was a +12% increase in the total median sale price year on year.
Median Sales Price Median Days On Market
March 2025
36
March 2024
45
There was a -20% decrease in the total median DOM year on year.
Sandringham Recent Sales.
Mount Roskill Market Statistics.
Total Sales
March 2025
31
March 2024
36
There was a -13% decrease in the total number of sales year on year.
Total Sales Value
March 2025
$31,098,888
March 2024
$38,748,500
There was a -19% decrease in the total sales value year on year.
Source: REINZ
Median Sales Price
March 2025
March 2024
$1,045,000
There was a -13% decrease in the total median sale price year on year.
Median Days On Market
March 2025
$900,000 44.5
March 2024
35
There was a 27% increase in the total median DOM year on year.
Mount Roskill Recent Sales.
CITY REALTY GROUP
AUC ION
Collection 2.0
May 28th & 29th 2025
Why Participate in the CRG Auction Collection 2.0?
This event is designed to create energy, urgency, and outstanding results. Across the Ray White network, this format continues to deliver success.
Key benefits for your sellers:
• Engaged, cash-ready buyers – often resulting in premium sale prices.
• Market momentum – buyer activity is increasing as interest rates ease.
• Speed and certainty – deals are done in hours, not weeks.
• Maximum exposure – targeted campaigns ensure the right buyers are reached.
Spaces are limited, and this is your opportunity to get your listings in front of serious buyers.
Looking forward to another exceptional Auction Collection.
City Realty Group Auction Report.
Ray White New Zealand has continued its strong auction performance, recording a 45.7% clearance rate – a significant uplift of 45.7% compared to the same period last year. Buyer engagement remains strong, with an average of 2.3 registered bidders and 1.8 active bidders per auction, reflecting growing market confidence and competition.
Across the country, Ray White conducted 158 auctions last week, representing a 33.9% increase and signalling a clear return in seller and buyer activity. Ray White New Zealand Head Auctioneer Sam Steele highlighted the strength of auctions as a method of sale in the current market.
“Committed participation yielded strong outcomes, averaging 2.3 registered bidders per auction, highlighting the power of open, competitive bidding in driving successful outcomes,” Steele said. He added that as stock levels begin to stabilise, more sellers are choosing the auction path – a strategy that is proving effective in attracting unconditional buyers and achieving faster results. On average, auction campaigns are producing sales in just 30.5 days, compared to 51 days for private treaty listings.
Nationally, 35.3% of Ray White listings yearto-date are being taken to auction – a clear indication that confidence is growing, and momentum is building.
Locally, the Ray White CRG team has seen buyer activity increase across all price points, with purchasers eager to act ahead of further shifts in interest rates. Several standout auctions from the past month include:
Yuhei Umezaki (Sandringham) achieved a remarkable result with a one-bedroom leasehold apartment at 306/10 Ronayne Street, attracting 11 registered bidders and selling for 104% above reserve.
Pantea Wilson (Mt Roskill) navigated a successful auction at Dundale Road, Blockhouse Bay, concluding with a sale under the hammer following an hour of negotiations with the highest bidder and the vendor.
Susan Wood-Markwick & Hugh Free (Sandringham) saw strong competition with 7 registered bidders at 3/19 Middlesex Road, Waterview, ultimately selling the property for $900,000.
There is no doubt – the market is active, competitive, and full of opportunity.
If you’re considering your next move and would like to discuss how auction could work for you, please feel free to reach out.
Tony Alexander: Global trade war’s effect on house prices - the good, bad and ugly
Nothing is certain right now.
ANALYSIS: At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, we all tried to figure out what the virus would mean for our economies, house prices, interest rates, employment, and so on. Virtually every forecast made at that time proved wrong. This is best understood by considering no one back then said that the closing of our borders and placing of people in lockdown would result in a 46% rise in average New Zealand house prices and a rise in the unemployment rate from 4% to a peak of 5.3%.
Why were all of our predictions wrong? Because none of us had experience of what usually happens in modern times during a global pandemic. I emphasised this point from about April 2020 onwards, and then through 2021-23 emphasised that none of us had experience of what usually happens immediately after a global pandemic.
Now we are in a similar situation. None of us has experience of what usually happens in modern times during a tariff war, potential decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies, and diminishing of the United States’ role, reputation, creditworthiness and stability. We all have to accept that whatever forecasts we make and whatever ones you are reading will almost certainly be wrong.
Does this mean we are floundering around in a blind manner? No. There are some key things that stick out. First, the high uncertainty about what is going to happen means consumers and businesses around the world will put spending plans on hold. That means weaker growth.
In New Zealand, the weaker growth comes not only from heightened uncertainty but also supply chain disruptions, which crimp our businesses and lifestyles. Weaker
Will New Zealand interest rates and inflation go up or down as a result of global instability?
Photo / Fiona Goodall
growth in the economies taking a large share of New Zealand – China accounts for 27%, the US 13% – will hobble growth in New Zealand, and weaker share markets will impel a negative wealth effect.
Second, there will be upward pressure on consumer prices. This happens because higher tariffs offshore will increase the cost of producing the goods New Zealand imports from countries imposing tariffs, as their business input costs will be increased. Also, the above-mentioned supply chain disruptions we know from pandemic experience will fuel inflation – potentially by quite a bit.
There will, however, be some downward pressure on prices if China diverts products away from the US market at discounted prices. But again, supply chain disturbances may limit that factor here. And there will be some downward pressure on inflation because of weaker growth. But that is where a key danger lies.
Weaker growth suppresses inflation by removing the easy ability of businesses to pass cost increases into their selling prices. With one measure of business margins already at a half-century low this will accentuate the wave of business liquidations still running its way through the country through 2025.
Third, for the moment there is downward pressure on share prices because of heightened global risks. But a new element has now emerged. The US President is attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve Board and seeking a leadership change, which would put low inflation targeting at risk. This is causing escalating concerns in the US bond market and that brings a substantial interest rate risk.
Medium- to long-term borrowing costs around the world are determined with reference to where such rates sit in the US Treasuries market. With new uncertainty about the US inflation outlook and the risk that China chooses to exert extra pressure on the US by selling down some of the 10% of US bonds on issue which it owns, upside risks for global fixed interest rates are becoming dominant.
We have no way of knowing how this deteriorating situation will truly play itself out as the US has become a source of instability in the world economy, financial markets, and global geopolitics. For home buyers in New Zealand, these uncertainties should be recognised when considering the “safe” amount of debt to take on and the wiseness of fixing one’s interest rate for only a very short period of time.
- Tony Alexander is an independent economics commentator. Additional commentary from him can be found at www.tonyalexander.nz
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The CRG Training Series!
A huge thank you to Ben East for kicking things off with energy, insight, and practical tools we can all take into our businesses.
This is just the beginning—and we’re excited for what’s to come!
REINZ National Real Estate Auctioneering Championships.
What a wonderful day at the auctioneering championships! Our very own Cameron Brain was nothing short of exceptional— polished, professional, and absolutely commanding on stage.
He represented City Realty Group with pride and precision, reminding everyone why he’s one of the best in the game. We’re so lucky to have him—our auction maestro, setting the standard and doing us proud!
Celebrating our achievements!
Quarter One Awards.
A fantastic way to acknowledge the hard work, milestones, and incredible team culture we’re so proud of.
A big congratulations to all the amazing agents who were recognized!
The Green Team!
Open House
Our sales team were treated to an open house for agents at the Tremont Development in Mount Albert.
Coffee Shout.
Ash Patel & Erin Dayal were down at Westmere School handing out coffee’s to the locals.
Auction Action!
There’s been plently of Auction Action this month within the CRG office.
Flags were out at Luke Crockford’s on site Auction in Grey Lynn. (Left). And below, our Auction room was bustling at Ray White Sandringham.
Pictured: Rosa Solano, Ivan Koulin & Tracey Potter.
Kelvin Davidson: What the rise in inflation means for house prices and mortgage rates
The five things you need to know about the housing market this week.
1. Inflation still just about under control
As expected, the headline CPI inflation rate rose from 2.2% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in Q1 2025, with non-tradable prices slowing (such as insurance and rents) but the tradable component becoming less favourable, rising from -1.1% in Q4 to +0.3% in Q1. On one hand, there’s not too much to be stressed about here. After all, inflation rate is still within the Reserve Bank’s target of 1-3%, and in a central scenario it should dip back towards 2% again in the near term. Indeed, part of the rise in Q1 was just due to a technicality about how fee-free tertiary education programmes are measured.
The Reserve Bank will be watching the numbers very closely and will no doubt be wary of cutting the Official Cash Rate
too fast or far in the coming months –especially if the US tariffs push down the NZ dollar and result in a bit more imported inflation. That said, the risks to the real economy are still to the downside, hence an “easing bias” for interest rates.
2. First-home buyers’ market share drops, but don’t panic!
The latest CoreLogic Buyer Classification data showed that first-home buyers’ share of property purchases dipped from its recent record highs of 26-27% down to 25% in the first quarter of the year, while the comeback by mortgaged multiple property owners (including investors) continues. That reflects rule changes such as mortgage interest deductibility for investors going back to 100%, but also
First-home buyers’ share of the market has dropped but they are buying more properties than they did a year ago. Photo / Fiona Goodall
lower interest rates, which have reduced the typical cashflow top-ups on a rental purchase.
However, before pundits start proclaiming the demise of first-home buyers at the hands of investors, there are some things to note. First, conditions remain pretty favourable for first-home buyers, and I doubt these factors will collapse. After all, KiwiSaver is still in play for at least part of their deposit, and there’s still access to the low-deposit lending allowances at the banks too. Moreover, in a busier overall market, first-home buyers are still likely to buy more properties in 2025 than they did in 2024.
3. Sales activity continues to trend higher
Just to ram home that point, consider overall property transactions activity over the first three months of the year – which, measured across estate agents and private deals, was about 5% higher than the same period in 2024. Even though first-home buyers’ market share is down year on year, a bigger pie meant they purchased nearly 100 more properties in Q1 2025 than Q1 2024.
4. Net migration may have reached a floor
Net migration into New Zealand was about 8800 in March, the highest monthly figure since September 2023, with non-citizen arrivals lifting a bit and Kiwi departures dropping slightly. Now, these numbers can be subject to revisions down the track. But even so, there are hints here that the migration cycle has reached its trough; another reason to think the property market could trend slowly higher in 2025.
5. GDP looks encouraging for Q1
A final one here for the stats boffins. Last week the Reserve Bank launched its own real-time indicator for GDP growth, which relates to the latest quarter for which we don’t have official data yet – at present Q1 2025 (but it’ll switch to Q2 2025 after the Q1 GDP stats are out on June 19). It covers a huge range of timely indicators for the economy, including the confidence surveys, jobs data, dwelling consents, lending activity, migration, and house sales. The key point: it’s currently suggesting GDP growth of around 0.8% in Q1 – a solid result.
CoreLogic chief economist Kelvin Davidson: “Look for more OCR cuts over the coming months.” Photo / Peter Meecham
This has put some uncertainty in the market with most economist still predicting rates to drop, however some are saying they could rise. Another factor is inflation. The Reserve Bank requires inflation to be between 1 – 3%. Good news is the most recent data on 17th April see’s the inflation rate at 2.5% in the acceptable levels.
Even better news is from the latest OCR announcement on the 9th of April where the reserve bank dropped the official cash rate by 0.25%. There is another OCR on the
28th May where it is expected to drop again. The talk now is when to start looking at fixing for longer term. There is talk from some economist that sometime late into 2025 you might want to investigate longer term rates. Therefore, this is why we are recommending putting some of your mortgage on a long-term rate sooner than later.
When it comes to refixing, we recommend holding out until a few days before your fixed rate rollover date. This will allow you to get the lowest rate on offer. Most banks
release rates for you to refix 1-2 months before your date, however, do hold off as when you lock your rates there is typically a break fee if they drop before your refix date and you want to change.
Most of our clients are now fixing a mixture of 6 months and longerterm rates. The term you choose will ultimately come down to what you are comfortable with financially and/or your future goals. We would be shying away from the longer 4, and 5-year rates; looking at the cycle, we believe these are overpriced.
The annual student migration
is upon us! So what better time to discuss...
Here are our top 7 tips to get your apartment student-ready. The start of 2025 is in full swing and it’s that time of the year when students return to University to start the new semester. With this newsletter we aim to provide insights for Auckland property managers and apartment owners on how to prepare rentals for returning students.
Tips to get your apartment student-ready:
Clean appliances
• Check appliances and clean if needed, to provide a cleaner and healthier cooking environment for students.
• Ensure air-conditioning service is up to date as the air conditioner will be useful when students stay indoors to focus on their studies during hot summer/autumn days.
Cool Off
• Make sure the apartment’s insulation and weather strips are up to standard. This will keep the apartment cool during summer just as it keeps it warm during winter. It will prevent cold air from escaping the room when the air conditioner or fan is used.
Create an inviting indoor space
• Replace lighting with energy efficient light bulbs such as LED fittings. Lighting is essential for students to excel in their studies. Change out old lightbulbs if required or provide a lamp on the study desk.
• Bring a touch of nature to your indoor space with plants. A variety of indoor plants will create a fresh summer vibe in the apartment. It will not only add visual interest to the room but can also improve air quality.
Create an outdoor space
• Inspect the patio or decking, make sure it’s clean and check if the flooring of the deck is up to standard.
• Create an inviting outdoor space by adding decorations and planters to provide more colors. In apartments and apartment buildings with outdoor space, students will enjoy getting some fresh air in their spare time.
Repaint apartment walls
• Repaint walls with lighter colors. We recommend using neutral colors as it will create a bright and inviting apartment space which will be beneficial for students studying indoors.
Furniture
• Think about what students need in a functional living space. Furniture like a study desk, comfortable chair, bookshelf etc. is essential for student life.
Remodel or renovate
• Is the apartment outdated and in need of remodeling? Transform the living space into a stylish, comfortable and practical apartment for current or new tenants. Benefits of renovating include an increase in property value of a current investment and provide an advantage for future sale.
Why choose us?
City Realty Group is the largest Ray White franchise in New Zealand with offices throughout Auckland. It is the group with the ‘family factor’ - we’re family owned and we treat people like family. We’re all about open doors and open minds. We encourage a unifying atmosphere where opportunities are created, individuals are recognized and everyone grows - from our team to vendors, investors and tenants.
Our experienced and established team service the market Auckland wide -from Residential, Luxury Apartments, waterfront properties and rentals. With a dedicated property management team and marine brokerage teams. City Realty Group has a strategic partnership with Loan Market to provide clients with the best mortgage advice and rates through brokers.
+64 (9) 281 4707
www.rwsandringham.co.nz
+64 (9) 308 5551
www.rwmtroskill.co.nz
Leaders in the Auckland Residential market.
Ray White Sandringham
Ray White Mount Roskill
Meet the team.
SALES TEAM - SANDRINGHAM OFFICE
Pauline Bridgman
Amy Tsai
Kate Jiang
Diane Goer
Emily Hu
Ivan Koulin
Hugh Free
Daniel Chen
Lauren Indrisie
Alastair Hubbard
Ash Anandani
Jay Nair
Susan Woods -Markwick
Rosa Solano
Ren Agnew
Tracey Potter
Tim Cai
Yuhei Umezaki
Sammy Agnew
Claire Firmin
Lakhbir Singh
SALES TEAM - MOUNT ROSKILL OFFICE
OUR LOANMARKET MORTGAGE ADVISORS
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