horticulture The Psa rural assistance package is only a temporary solution. page 10
understanding porina Eradication of porina pests such as diamond back moth and bronze beetle set to become a reality. page 23
animal health Company denies claims of health risks for saleyard mixing of rearer calves.
Rural NEWS to all farmers, for all farmers
december 18, 2012: Issue 529
www.ruralnews.co.nz
Tough year ahead – MPI P E TE R BU R K E peterb@ruralnews.co.nz
THE GLOBAL economic crisis is expected to knock $1.7 billion off the value of New Zealand’s primary exports this season. MPI has revised downwards its earlier forecasts for primary exports, to $27.5 billion – 5% less than a year ago. The biggest hit, not unexpectedly, is on lamb exports, predicted to earn $1.91 billion, a drop of 17% on the previous year. MPI is forecasting that lamb prices for season will be about $4.88/kg, with an 18kg lamb this season fetching about $88 – $113 last season. This is due mainly to weaker consumer demand for lamb especially in the European Union. The value of beef exports will remain about the same as last year, aided mainly by the drought in the US. Dairy prices will be down by 8.1% to $12.6 billion, this figure only marginally below what MPI was forecasting in June. While kiwifruit prices will hold up this season, the outlook for next
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season is bleak as the impacts of Psa are felt. Other horticultural exports are expected to do well this season. MPI also predicts forestry will continue to be squeezed in the coming years. What’s not new is that everyone was predicting 2013 to be a tough season, especially given that it was exceptionally good climatically and the markets were receptive to our products at good prices. What is new is that MPI has revised downwards its June predictions by 3% in just six months, something it says creates some ‘short term challenges’ for the primary sector.
don't tell rudolph But it’s velvet and antler competition time in New Zealand, with national and many regional competitions completed in recent weeks. Here, Peter Shearer (centre) shows off the head his employers Kathy and Donald Hudson entered in the South Canterbury and North Otago competition. For a report from the national competition, held last week in Invercargill, turn to p5
Chris Jones, MPI’s manager of economic information and analysis, says the main factors are the global economic situation, a New Zealand dollar expected to remain strong for the next two years and the spread of Psa. On the plus side, Jones says the drought in the US offers opportunities for beef and the growth in developing markets in Asia looks good in the medium-to-long term. “While the IMF has downgraded Chinese growth, it’s still forecasting growth in that country of 7-8%, admirable growth by anyone’s estimation.
“While many commodity prices have taken a hit since we did our forecast in June, dairy prices have risen strongly, horticulture has held up well and meat and dairy volumes have been high,” he says. A major problem on the horizon is the impact of Psa on kiwifruit exports. Jones says exports of gold kiwifruit may halve in 2013/14. There could be as few as ten million trays exported in those years compared with the 24 million trays exported in 2012/13. @rural_news facebook.com/ruralnews
H20 all go for 2013 PRIMARY INDUSTRY Minister David Carter says the biggest threat and challenge to agriculture in 2013 is water and the Government has spent a lot of time talking about it. The Horizons One Plan decision has been an “eye opener for the Cabinet” in view of the Government’s drive to deliver economic growth, Carter says, and it would be a problem if the work on irrigation infrastructure and the ‘acceleration fund’ was gazumped by “unrealistic regional plans being developed anywhere in New Zealand”. “I think the big challenge, having received three reports from LAWF, is to come up with a policy package that shows we are serious about managing this resource in an environmentally sustainable way. “I would summarize this past year, 2012, as the year in which this government has firmly established in the minds of New Zealanders that there has to be a strong economic growth agenda, and we’ve done this well.” Central government must take control of this and make sure there is “substantial guidance to regional councils as to what they have to do”. Carter is disappointed at how the sheep meat industry is positioning itself for the immediate season. He says that given the two biggest meat companies lost collectively about $90 million in shareholder equity, he’s surprised that there hasn’t been more demand for action and accountability.
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