VICTORIAN GREENFIELD MARKET UPDATE
Victorian Greenfield Land Snapshot - March 2025
Gross Lot Sales 888 Melbourne and Regional Growth Areas
Median Lot Price vs. Feb 2025
$400,000 Melbourne Growth Areas N/C
Median Lot Size vs. Feb 2025
365sqm Melbourne Growth Areas
Gross sales across metropolitan and regional growth areas rose 11.3% in March, reaching 888 lots. This marks a 2.3% increase in lot sales compared to March 2024. While the February interest rate cut has helped improve market sentiment and boosted sales activity, purchaser incentives – such as rebates and discounts – remain essential. These incentives are crucial for supporting demand in the new home market, given the ongoing affordability challenges and intense competition from both the established home market and the secondary vacant lot market.
Metropolitan outperform regional areas over March
All Melbourne growth corridors saw increased sales in March, with the strongest growth in the Northern corridor (26%), followed by the Western corridor (15%). As a result, these two corridors now account for 31% and 35% of total gross lot sales, respectively. Conversely, sales activity in Geelong remained unchanged from the previous month, causing its share of total sales to decrease slightly to 9%. While gross lot sales experienced a monthly decline in the growth corridors of Ballarat, Bendigo, and Drouin & Warragul.
The trend of stable lot prices and slightly larger lot sizes continued in March. Melbourne’s median lot size grew by 2.2% to 365sqm, while the median lot price remained unchanged at $400,000. This resulted in a 2.2% decline in the median per sqm rate, which is now down 6.5% for 2025. Improving price points are augmented by discounts and rebates ranging from 5% to 10% of the headline lot price. In contrast, Geelong’s median lot size shrank by 5% to 400sqm, leading to a 6.4% decrease in the median lot price, now at $379,000.
Source: RPM Research, Data & Insights
Over 2023/24, Western growth corridor experienced the strongest population growth of 4.8%, with its Estimated Resident Population (ERP) increasing by 26,622 persons. This was followed by population growth of 19,806 persons or 3.7% in the Northern growth corridor, and 16,806 persons or 3.2% in the South East growth corridor. Within regional growth areas, Geelong recorded the highest absolute increase of 6,778 persons. However, its resultant growth of 2.4% was slightly below the corresponding figure for Ballarat of 2.5%, which gained 2,924 persons.
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