Executive Summary
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operators may be overestimating their adaptive capacity (e.g., capacity to make snow under the warmest scenarios). The incorporation of adaptation to climate change into the collective minds of private and public sector tourism decision-makers (‘mainstreaming’) remains several steps away. Consequently, there is a real need for effective communication between the climate change science community and tourism operators at the regional and local scale, particularly with respect to the development of climate change scenarios and indicators catered toward local tourism decision-making. Figure 6.2 Geographic distribution of major climate change impacts affecting tourism destinations*
* Key destination vulnerabilities are identified at the sub-regional scale in the full technical report
6.3 Implications of Climate Change for Tourism Demand Patterns Climate, the natural environment, and personal safety are three primary factors in destination choice, and global climate change is anticipated to have significant impacts on all three of these factors at the regional level. Tourists also have the greatest capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change, with relative freedom to avoid destinations impacted by climate change or shifting the timing of travel to avoid unfavourable climate conditions. As such, the response of tourists to the complexity of destination impacts will reshape demand patterns and play a pivotal role in the eventual impacts of climate change on the tourism industry. Understanding and anticipating the potential geographic and seasonal shifts in tourist demand will remain critical areas of research in the future. The evidence available from studies that have explored the potential impact of altered climate conditions for tourist demand suggests that the geographic and seasonal redistribution of tourist demand may be very large for individual destinations and countries by mid- to late-century. 84, 85 Anticipated impacts include a gradual shift in preferred destinations to higher latitudes and to higher elevations in mountainous areas. Tourists from temperate nations that currently dominate international travel (e.g., Northern Europe) are expected to spend more holidays in their home country or nearby, adapting their
UNWTO, 18 June 2008 Draft