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Climate Change and Tourism – Responding to Global Challenges
The impact of extreme events such as storms, drought and wildfires on tourist perceptions of a destination are likely to be short-lived and thus the recovery period relatively quick. Other climate change impacts are likely to be more enduring in the minds of consumers and may over time widely alter the perceived attractiveness of a destination. The expansion of geographical areas susceptible to the transmission of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue 598, to popular tourism destinations where these diseases are not now prevalent is one such example. How would travellers respond if required to take malaria medication to go to the Azores, South Africa, Cuba or Mexico in the future? Traveller response to media coverage of regional outbreaks and perceived changes in disease risk could have important implications for travel patterns and remains an important area for further research. Similarly, in the absence of credible information and recurrent exposure to messages that the Mediterranean is or will soon become too hot for comfortable holidays may eventually lead some consumers to accept this notion, especially if it is combined with education campaigns on the increased risk of skin cancer. While the effectiveness of public relations and marketing campaigns to avoid or correct consumer misperceptions about climate impacts is uncertain, this is likely to be an indispensable adaptation strategy for the tourism industry and governments alike.
10.3 Demand Implications of Mitigation Policies and Tourism Mobility National or international mitigation policies – that are policies that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – have an impact on tourist behaviour in two ways. First, policies, especially market-based instruments, will lead to an increase in the costs of travel. Second, policies can foster environmental attitudes that lead tourists to change their travel patterns. Tourism transport providers and especially the airline industry seek to improve their fuel efficiency to reduce their costs and offer more competitive prices. At the same time climate change initiatives such as carbon trading are likely to increase transport costs and this may well outweigh economic savings achieved through efficiency gains. 599 Recognition should also be given to the manner in which various transport sectors are approaching mitigation, either through their own initiative or via mandatory participation in incentive-based systems. Notwithstanding regional and unilateral efforts, such as the proposed inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS, which would require certain emission targets for all aircraft operating within and to the EU to be met, industry groups such as ICAO and IATA have called for more global measures that would act outside of incentive-based mitigation schemes. 600 A number of studies have analysed the price sensitivity of air passengers, and the results vary considerably. Overall, it appears that leisure travellers are more price sensitive than business traveller), and shorthaul travellers are more sensitive to price increases than those on long-haul trips. The reason for this is that there are more choices and possibilities for substitution for shorter trips compared with long ones. 602 Also, tourists who can afford long-distance holidays are likely to be wealthier than average. Research also found that tourists are more likely to adjust their behaviour (i.e., travel less by air) in response to higher prices in the longer term rather than immediately. This means that an increase in airfares may not have an immediate effect (i.e., tourists cannot change their plans quickly), but over time tourists may learn to avoid the pricier option of air travel and become more savvy in alternative transport options (e.g., trains).
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The perception of transport, and in particular air travel, in relation to its carbon footprint is possibly more important than tourists’ responses to price changes. Recently, there has been substantial media coverage on this topic, for example: •
‘What is the Real Price of Cheap Air Travel?’, The Observer, 29 January 2006
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‘It’s a Sin to Fly, Says Church’, The Sunday Times, 23 July 2006
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‘Flugreisen als Klima-Killer’, Abendblatt, 6 July 2004
UNWTO, 18 June 2008 Draft