A HEADLINE EXPLORATION of the relationship between air temperature and accidental drowning fatalities in the UK
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Last year, the National Drowning Report UK1 reported evidence of an increase in accidental drowning fatalities during periods of extreme air temperatures in 2022.
The fifth hottest August on record coincided with an increase in the proportion of accidental drowning fatalities, compared to the 5-year average.
As a leading water safety charity, the Royal Life Saving Society UK (RLSS UK) is interested in understanding more about the possible relationship between air temperature and accidental drowning fatalities.
Approach
We have used two data sources in our analysis.
Average UK maximum air temperatures, provided by the Met Office.
These cover all of the UK, including England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. As such, where maximum air temperatures are at their highest, these reflect extreme hotweather events.
- Daily data, which covers the period 2018 to 2022.
- Long-term average, which covers the period 1991 to 2020.
Accidental drowning fatalities, 2018 to 2022, from WAID2.
The headline findings from our analysis are outlined on the following pages.
19 people accidentally drowned across a consecutive 4-day period in July as the UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave, when air temperatures reached over 38°C.
1 Royal Life Saving Society UK (June 2023), National Drowning Report UK
2 Water Incident Database (WAID) | National Water Safety Forum
FINDING ONE:
Increases in the daily UK average maximum air temperatures in the summer coincide with increases in the number of daily UK accidental drowning fatalities
Figure 1 shows the daily UK average maximum temperature (°C) and the daily UK accidental drowning fatalities between 1st January 2018 and 31st December 2022.
Visually, we see increases in the daily UK average maximum air temperatures in the summer, which coincide with increases in the number of daily UK accidental drowning fatalities.
Fig 1. UK Average Maximum Air Temperatures ( °C) vs. UK Accidental Drowning Fatalities
Figure. 1: UK Average Maximum Air Temperature (°C) vs. UK Accidental Drowning Fatalities
Source: # of Accidental Drowning Fatalities, WAID (2018-2022), UK Average Maximum Air Temperatures, Met Office (2018-2022)
FINDING TWO:
The higher the daily UK average maximum air temperature, the higher the average number of daily UK accidental drowning fatalities
In Figure 2 we can see that the higher the daily UK average maximum air temperature, the higher the average number of daily UK accidental drowning fatalities.
Figure 2: Average no. of UK accidental drowning fatalities per day based on the average maximum air temperature ( °C)
Figure. 2: UK Average no. of UK Accidental Drowning Fatalities Per Day Based On The Average Maximum Air Temperature (°C)
Drowning
Source: # of Accidental Drowning Fatalities, WAID (2018-2022), UK Average Maximum Air Temperature, Met Office (July 2023)
By summarising this data into Table 1, it can be observed that when the daily UK average maximum air temperature reaches 25°C or above:
5x as many UK accidental drownings per day, on average, compared to when UK average maximum air temperatures are below 17°C.
Table 1: Summary Table - Average no. of UK accidental drowning fatalities per day based on the average maximum air temperature (°C)
Max Air Temperature (°C)
3x
There are more than 3x as many UK accidental drownings per day on average, compared to when temperatures are at or around the long-term UK average maximum summer air temperature of 18.9°C.
Base (days): Below 17°C (1,274), 17-18.9 °C (215), 19-20.9 °C (187), 21-22.9°C (80), 23-24.9°C (36), 25°C and over (34)
FINDING THREE:
Evidence of people actively entering the water when UK average maximum air temperatures rise to 25°C and over
When air temperatures rise, people may be tempted to head to nearby outdoor water spaces to enjoy the weather. In our analysis of UK accidental drownings that occur when UK average maximum air temperatures were 25°C, we found that 63% or above were inland, in places such as rivers and lakes.
We also found evidence of an increased propensity to enter the water during these periods of heat. Of those who accidentally drowned when UK average maximum air temperatures were 25°C or above, over half (57%) were swimming. This compares to just 20% of cases across all accidental drownings, where 1 in 3 of those who drowned were walking or running3, as shown in Figure 3.
Figure. 3: % UK Accidental Drowning Fatalities by Activity, Compared To The 5-Year Average
Base: UK Average Maximum Air Temperature 25°C or over (90), 5-Year Average, 2018-2022 (1,243)
3 Based on the WAID 5-year average 2018-2022
Accidental Drownings (5-year average)
FINDING FOUR:
Data shows an increase in the number of adolescents and young adults drowning when average maximum air temperatures are 25°C and over
We have also explored the ages of those who lost their lives to accidental drowning when UK average maximum air temperatures were 25°C and over.
In total, 40% of those that accidentally drowned were aged between 13 and 24 years of age.
- 20% were aged between 13 and 17 years old. This compares to 6% across all accidental drownings.
- 20% were aged between 18 and 24-years old, compared to 14% for all drownings.
