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SUSAN BROOKS’ ADVICE TO THE GOP NOMINEE: “It’s important we focus on what we’re for, rather than what we stand against.”



July 2016 Volume 50, No. 3

Why Trump

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“Ideas that matter, since 1965.“ Volume 50, Number 3 Debate

Cover Story (cont’d)

4 Why Trade Keeps America Strong and our Workers Employed By Dave Reichert 6 Bad Trade Deals are Keeping Our Economy in Neutral By Rick Manning Politics & Perspective


Picking a VP: Why Rules Matter By Billy Pitts The rules governing conventions have been used for political ends in the past. That is likely to continue in Cleveland, where the selection of the running mate will be critical this year.

20 Time for a New Start By Trey Mayfield As another Republican nomination process comes to an end, this constitutional attorney and GOP activist 9 The Future of NATO By Lamont Colucci argues that it’s time to revisit the 40-year old tradition that dictates where the process begins. NATO is at a crossroads of identity and purpose. It can either rest on 19th century alliance rules, based on reaction and diminutive diplomacy, or 23 Storm Clouds over Philadelphia it can create the destiny of the 21st. By Susan Del Percio 11 The Scalia Election With many Republicans in Cleveland wringing their hands about the candidate they are about By Elizabeth Slattery to nominate, it’s worth noting that many The death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February led to deadlocks and compromises in some of Democrats are doing the same thing. the biggest cases of the term, highlighting the 26 From Reagan & Ford importance of his replacement on the Court. to Trump & the Reality Show Cover Story 40 Years of Republican Conventions A brief summary of GOP Conventions over 14 Why Trump Resonates the past 40 years – the highs and lows and By Lou Zickar good and bad of each, and how they may Americans are ashamed of their government compare to this year’s proceedings. and ready to turn the tables on the governing class. Who better to shame Washington than Sections someone who has no shame? 3 In this Edition 16 Tradition and Novelty in Mr. Trump’s Running Mate Selection 30 News & Events - June 22nd discussion By Joel K. Goldstein with Senate hopefuls Reps. Todd Young, The 2016 GOP vice presidential candidate is Charles Boustany and Joe Heck. uncertain, but the selection process will likely be unique even as it honors certain patterns. 32 Ripon Profile - U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks Publisher The Ripon Society

Editor Lou Zickar

President Jim Conzelman

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Editorial Board Thomas Tauke Michael Castle Billy Pitts Pamela Sederholm Judy Van Rest Jim Murtha John Feehery

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THE RIPON SOCIETY HONORARY CONGRESSIONAL ADVISORY BOARD U.S. Senators: Shelley Moore Capito - Senate Co-Chair Cory Gardner - Senate Co-Chair Roy Blunt Richard Burr Bill Cassidy, M.D. Susan M. Collins Joni Ernst Deb Fischer Orrin G. Hatch John Hoeven Pat Roberts Mike Rounds Thom Tillis Roger Wicker U.S. Representatives: Pat Tiberi - House Co-Chair Susan Brooks - House Co-Chair Renee Ellmers - House Co-Chair Martha Roby - Vice Chair, South Erik Paulsen - Vice Chair, Midwest Bill Shuster - Vice Chair, Northeast Greg Walden - Vice Chair, West Mark Amodei Andy Barr Mike Bishop Diane Black Marsha Blackburn Charles Boustany Vern Buchanan Larry Bucshon, M.D. Michael C. Burgess, M.D. Ken Calvert Jason Chaffetz Tom Cole Barbara Comstock Ryan Costello Ander Crenshaw Rodney Davis Jeff Denham Charlie Dent Bob Dold Sean Duffy Tom Emmer Rodney Frelinghuysen Chris Gibson Kay Granger Sam Graves Richard Hanna Joe Heck French Hill Randy Hultgren Darrell Issa Lynn Jenkins Dave Joyce John Katko Mike Kelly Adam Kinzinger Leonard Lance Billy Long Frank Lucas Tom Marino Kevin McCarthy Michael McCaul Cathy McMorris Rodgers Patrick Meehan Candice Miller John Moolenaar Randy Neugebauer Kristi Noem Bruce Poliquin John Ratcliffe Tom Reed Jim Renacci Reid Ribble Tom Rooney Peter Roskam Steve Scalise John Shimkus Lamar Smith Steve Stivers Glenn Thompson Mac Thornberry Mike Turner Fred Upton Jackie Walorski Mimi Walters Edward Whitfield Steve Womack Todd Young

In this Edition

“Why Trump Resonates.” When people see this headline on the cover, they may think it is an endorsement of Donald Trump. It’s not an endorsement. It’s an explanation. An explanation of how someone who displays so few of the personal qualities we look for in our leaders now finds himself the presumptive Republican nominee. In public at least, he is not honest, is often times racist, and, in his business dealings, is reported to have taken people for a ride. He didn’t work his way up from nothing like Ronald Reagan or Abraham Lincoln. He inherited a bundle and then tried to attribute his entire success to his own hard work and eye for the bottom line. Thrift and industry are important. But so are honesty and integrity and respecting the rights upon which this country was founded. The fact that he defeated 16 other candidates in the Republican primary says as much about the anger and frustration of the American people as it does the power of his personality and strength of his ideas. Almost eight years ago, millions of people descended on Washington for the inauguration of America’s first African American President. It was a hopeful time. It was an optimistic time. It was a time for the country to finally turn the page -- from an age of political dysfunction to an era of putting the interests of the American people first. There are many explanations for why things didn’t pan out. Those on the right tend to blame the President. They say he didn’t do enough to reach across the aisle and build relationships on Capitol Hill. And rather than governing like the centrist he portrayed himself to be during his 2008 campaign, he handed his agenda over to liberal Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and governed from the far left. Naturally, those on the left disagree. They say Republicans dug in their heels from the day Obama was inaugurated and opposed him at every turn. As proof, they point to Mitch McConnell’s statement in 2010 that, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” They also say that Obama was ready to work with Republicans; the problem was that then-Speaker of the House John Boehner was never able to get his Tea Party troops in line. The fact of the matter is both sides are right. Republicans did dig in their heels, and Obama could have done more to cajole them. After all, that is what Presidents are supposed to do. Unfortunately, Washington these days is overflowing with functionaries and zealots -- those who go along to get along, and those who get in the way. What the country needs, and what the American people want, are leaders. Over the past 12 months, Donald Trump convinced a record number of Republican voters that he was the strongest leader in the GOP field. He did it by rewriting the rules of modern campaign warfare. He was like the Minutemen fighting the British -- agilely picking off each candidate one by one, while they stood in formation clumsily trying to take him down. His tactics were offensive. His behavior was objectionable. But in the end, he won. He is the presumptive GOP nominee. The question now facing Republicans and all Americans is -- are we so desperate for change that we want him as our President? Lou Zickar Editor of The Ripon Forum RIPON FORUM July 2016



Why Trade Keeps America Strong and our Workers Employed

DAVE REICHERT The benefits of free trade to our economy are proven barriers that country had in place to limit American businesses and easily seen: small business expansion, job growth, wage from reaching consumers inside their borders. That was the increases, lower consumer prices and an overall strengthening case when we negotiated a trade agreement with South Korea. of the economy. But the overwhelming benefits of trade can Prior to that agreement, U.S. cherry growers faced a 24 percent also be tracked through the journey of tiny hay seeds planted in tariff when they sold their cherries in Korea, but our agreement the fertile soil of Ellensburg, Washington. with Korea eliminated this tariff. Calaway Trading is a hay and agricultural exporter In the year after the agreement took effect, our cherry headquartered in my home state of Washington. Founded exports to Korea nearly doubled and have continued to grow, in 1987, it has successfully expanded because of trade with making Korea our third largest market for cherries. This is not Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, our only success. Take for example the reduction of tariffs and 11 other countries across and other barriers that were the globe. Now one of the ten limiting U.S. exports of pork largest exporters of hay from to Colombia. Because of our the western United States, it has trade agreement with Colombia, grown its employee base to over American pork producers can 100 workers. With export sales better compete with their foreign continuing to grow by 5 percent competitors and their exports annually, the possibilities for this have tripled in value, increasing family-owned farm are endless. the number of Americans they Calaway Trading’s story employ right along with it. of expansion through increased These are just two examples of international trade is a narrative how trade agreements result in that is shared across industries more jobs and more revenue for many American companies – here at home. both large and small. America’s These facts have been agriculture, manufacturing and confirmed by the independent services sectors have seen their International Trade Commission production increase, sales grow, (ITC) in a recent report. and revenues rise as they tap According to the ITC, trade The connection between into the vast consumer base that agreements have positively strong trade agreements and lies across oceans and outside impacted our trade deficit, of America’s borders. With 95 economic growth in the United increased U.S. gross domestic percent of the world’s consumers product (GDP), and increased States is simple, basic math. living abroad, opportunity and U.S. employment and wages. trade have become linked. And for middle and lower This is especially true for small to medium sized income Americans looking to provide for their families, trade companies, which make up 98 percent of America’s exporters. agreements have offered greater consumer choice and lower Like Calaway Trading, they have discovered that consumers prices. Further, workers seeking a pay raise also benefit as U.S. outside our borders are willing to pay for high-quality trade jobs pay 13 to 18 percent more than non-trade related American-made goods and services. But the extent consumers jobs. abroad are willing to pay for even the finest American products It is not just American workers and families who recognize has its limits – and that is why strong trade agreements are trade is the key to succeeding in the 21st Century economy. Our critical for our job creators to remain competitive globally. competitors across the globe are tapping into foreign markets The connection between strong trade agreements and too and are -- and will continue -- negotiating trade agreements economic growth in the United States is simple, basic math. with or without us. If we fail to implement trade agreements When we negotiate a trade agreement between the United while our competitors race ahead to aggressively knock down States and a partner country, we break down tariffs and other trade barriers for their own benefit and increase their own 4


market share, we will lose our competitive edge as our costs surely took a hit with the invention of Henry Ford’s Model go up and opportunities drop. Sitting on the sidelines also T, technologies evolve and industries, workers and economies means countries like China, not us, will be writing the rules must adjust. and setting the standards the rest of the world will be forced to The best way to help our companies grow is by removing play by. Trade agreements give us tools to enforce our rights burdensome tariffs and opening up new markets, allowing us and make sure our trading partners to generate new jobs, design and are living up to their obligations. create more products here in the The best way to help our Critics of trade often blame U.S., compete on a global scale, trade agreements for any negative establish our standards abroad, and companies grow is by development in manufacturing. bring home more profits. American removing burdensome I certainly acknowledge that workers, businesses, and producers sometimes trade can displace create and make the best products tariffs and opening up workers in particular sensitive and services in the world – don’t we new markets. sectors. I also agree that we should want to give them the opportunity help these workers. In fact, I to sell in markets around the globe? introduced bipartisan legislation last year, which became law, to When we knock down barriers for our exporters, they always provide cash benefits and training for workers affected by trade compete and win. to give them the tools to remain in the work force. However, Free enterprise and competition pave the way to the majority of U.S. industries and their workers strongly prosperity. These principles do not change when you cross benefit from trade agreements. Blaming trade agreements national, regional, or party lines. If America is to remain the for any and all negative events ignores the dramatic influence world’s economic leader, we must embrace trade and all it has technology and current economic environments have had on to offer. RF different sectors around the world. What once was done by many hands is now often done by machines and smart devices. Dave Reichert represents the 8th District of Washington in the Are opponents of trade willing to give up their cell phones U.S. House of Representatives. He serves as Chairman of the to reignite the switchboard industry? Just as carriage makers Ways & Means Subcommittee on Trade.



Bad Trade Deals are Keeping Our Economy in Neutral RICK MANNING What benefits would ostensibly be derived in Standing beneath a statue of Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam earlier this year, U.S. president Barack Obama bragged exchange for our leaders making these debilitating about his ability to ram a rigged, crony capitalist trade deal concessions? Prior to Obama’s visit to Vietnam, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) released a report through a lame duck U.S. Congress. “Nothing is easy in Washington these days,” Obama outlining the “positives” associated with passing TPP. said. “But despite the lack of cooperation with Congress, Specifically, the report cited a 0.23 percent increase in annual real income, a 0.15 percent I seem to be able to get a lot of increase in GDP and a 0.07 percent things done anyway.” uptick in employment — over the The result of Obama’s next decade-and-a-half. imperial presidency? Anemic job Obviously these are not real growth, lackluster GDP expansion economic gains, they are rounding and shrinking income levels. errors. Even worse than these This ongoing economic decline status quo stats, though, was the has eviscerated the middle class dubious math used in engineering and dramatically weakened our them. For example, the ITC nation’s position in the world — report assumed every American making us less prosperous and job lost to outsourcing would more vulnerable. be replaced and that foreign As Obama prepares to leave currency manipulation intended office, his final legacy item — to disadvantage American goods and quite possibly the final nail in would not undermine the deal, as the coffin of our free market — is it has the Permanent Normal Trade the passage of the Trans-Pacific Relations deal with China, and the Partnership (TPP). This proposed Korean-US free trade deal. The global agreement should not be ITC projections also presume that confused with the traditional idea Rick Manning foreign governments will honor of “free trade” being based upon the terms of this agreement — a mutual lowering of tariffs to and that America will be able to increase the flow of goods between As Obama prepares to enforce its provisions when they two countries. Instead, the TPP is leave office, his final don’t (which Americans won’t). a managed trade deal that rewrites These are not just flawed the rules for the world’s economy, legacy item — and quite assumptions — they are pure seeking to flatten our nation’s possibly the final nail fantasy. regulations and laws, effectively No wonder ITC dramatically in the coffin of our free ending economic sovereignty for missed the mark in projecting signatories, all the while ignoring market — is the passage outcomes for the 2011 Koreanthe de facto tariffs that will remain of the Trans-Pacific U.S. (KORUS) free trade deal — on U.S. goods. which has doubled our nation’s While the specific Partnership. trade deficit with Korea in the ramifications are still unclear as span of four short years (costing Congress awaits the presentation of implementing legislation, it is clear that Congress’ an estimated 50,000 U.S. jobs in the process). Obama’s response to this damning data is to ignore ability to make changes to some intellectual property laws and at least some aspects of immigration law would be it — saying he had “not yet seen a credible argument that once we get TPP in place we’re going to be worse off.” ceded to the new treaty. 6


Along with government overtaxing, overspending He’s either lying or he’s not looking very hard. and overregulation — trade deals like TPP are why This deal is clearly not about helping America’s the U.S. economy remains stuck in neutral. Growth economy — or the workers who derive their livelihoods hasn’t exceeded 4 percent in a decade-and-a-half, from it — it is about providing select U.S. companies and hasn’t eclipsed three percent since 2005. This with access to cheap, overseas labor. In Vietnam, textile is the worst economic run workers make roughly $100 a since the Great Depression, month. By hiring them — or by and recent data points indirectly benefiting from slave Along with government to things getting worse labor in countries like Malaysia overtaxing, overspending and before they get better — — apparel and shoe companies overregulation — trade deals even without hanging this will be able to replace U.S. millstone around the necks workers. Just ask the 900 New like TPP are why the U.S. of our workers. Balance employees in Maine economy remains stuck in Such is the sad legacy who will get priced out of their of government-negotiated, jobs if this deal goes through. neutral. centrally planned “free” Companies outsourcing trade. Frankly, it is past American positions claim they time America’s leaders rebuked it — and stood up to will make up for the carnage done to our economy by the imperial president looking to foist it upon us as lowering consumer prices — but this promise has proven the capstone of his own failed legacy. RF illusory, too. “U.S. workers without college degrees have lost roughly 12.2 percent of their wages — even after accounting Rick Manning is president of Americans for Limited for the benefits of cheaper imported goods,” columnist Leo Government. Hendrey, Jr. wrote recently for Reuters.

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Politics & Perspective


Future of NATO LAMONT COLUCCI The sword of Damocles hangs over NATO: What required 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense. role does the alliance have in the 21st century? Events in Where does this leave the alliance in the 21st century? Georgia, Ukraine and the Baltic demonstrate Russian use Like all organic healthy bodies it must adapt and grow on of salami tactics (slicing bits and pieces of influence and its foundations. There needs to be a streamlined approach territory) has accelerated. NATO must create relevancy and that blends old and new into a new, vibrant, proactive power if it is not only to survive, but to thrive. alliance. The defensive nature of the alliance was dictated Media coverage about by the rules of the Cold War. Europe has been dominated A shield of defense must now by the European Union and be transformed into a sword Brexit. However, it is highly of offense. unlikely that the fate of The first issue arises the EU is tied to the fate of out of the democratic NATO. electorates that NATO Readers should be serves. These populations reminded that NATO need to be invested in NATO served as a bulwark against as a bulwark of Western communism and the Soviet civilization, not merely a threat during the Cold War technocratic treaty system. and serves as a guarantee for NATO, with American peace in Europe and abroad leadership, must promote today. In an age where the a message to the electorate American people are less beyond an attack upon one likely to endorse unilateral is an attack upon all. It American action, NATO can must create a narrative that serve as the best conduit for describes the alliance in terms American national security of protecting and enhancing Lamont Collucci and by being a united democratic civilization and front for the democratic human rights. West. NATO has been left Second, United States In an age where the American to stagnate as events in leadership is not only critical, people are less likely to endorse the Middle East, issues of but fundamental. This means tactical counterterrorism and that America is always out in unilateral American action, the Obama administration’s front of policy and practice. NATO can serve as the best “pivot to Asia” have Our European and Canadian conduit for American national dominated the few media partners are unwilling to go to centers and policymakers still the mat without us. The tired security and by being a united devoted to foreign affairs. The sentiment that the “Europeans front for the democratic West. alliance increasingly runs the should understand their own risk of what former Secretary interests in a stable world Robert Gates called a “two-tiered alliance”: a minority of order” was never accurate. America is the indispensable NATO partners who can engage in serious 21st century partner and leader of the alliance and should be bold in its combat operations and the majority whose contributions are leadership - leading from the front. likely to be more symbolic or humanitarian. Only 5 percent Third, NATO expansion eastward has happened. There of our European partners have the ability to deploy outside is no turning back, and, as a result, the United States and of their borders and only four of the 28 members spend the NATO are in a position that they must defend Eastern RIPON FORUM July 2016


Europe and the Baltic. Putin’s recent actions serve as Europe, in places like Iraq and Syria, alliance countries will stark reminder that he is willing to use whatever tactics continue to be reactive and devastated. are necessary to achieve Russian expansion into the soEighth, and most importantly, NATO needs a geostrategic called “near abroad.” NATO forward basing into these new mission that does not react to one crisis after another. This partners is the only thing that will deter war. The debates mission must meld the grand strategies of the nation states over NATO expansion into existing partners is over, and is that comprise it, headed by the United States. This mission now counterproductive. must combine the promotion of democratic civilization, Fourth, NATO partners must keep pace with modern human rights and realist interests. NATO’s shield that military and technological innovation and training. The surrounds Europe, the United States and Canada is a given; alliance must be truly integrated so there is no problem the sword that collectively deals with tyranny, genocide of joint, large military operations. The 2011 operations in and illegal conquest would be the goal. This will not only Libya again exposed the dependency on the United States. deter war and atrocities, it will unite the West and relieve the Afghanistan is even more telling. Just as the United States singular burden from one nation, or a small group of them. must lead from Concurrent the front, so do with this is the the Europeans need for NATO to need to keep pace develop and enact through their joint strategies currency, soldiers for assisting and commitments. democratic forms NATO does not of government that have to be as strong replace tyrannies, as its weakest link, since it is no good but it does have to merely defeat to be as strong as tyrants. This will the middle core. require the ability This is especially to create security, a problem when civil society and looking at power market economies projection in those same and overseas countries. Fewer deployment. tyrannies like those Meeting of NATO Ministers of Defense in June Fifth, NATO in Iran, Syria and must have a clear North Korea are and streamlined likely to believe United States leadership is not only critical, plan and that state sponsored but fundamental. organization for terrorism, ethnic integrating allies cleansing or outside of NATO to ensure western diplomatic and military using weapons of mass destruction are good ideas if they success. NATO should work toward a real resurrection of fear a massive, collective Western response spearheaded ANZUS as well as greater coordination with Japan, Taiwan, by the United States. Great power actors like Russia and and South Korea. China will be constrained within their own borders if they Sixth, NATO integration with Russia was always see demonstrations of Western unity, in league with other a fantasy. Russia seeks strategic dominance, and will democratic allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia and New attempt to manipulate Western division for its own ends. Zealand. A discussion of NATO partnership with Russia is not only NATO is at a crossroads of identity and purpose. It unrealistic in the extreme, it also creates a fiction that can either rest on 19th century alliance rules, based on Russian interests and NATO interests coincide. As a matter reaction and diminutive diplomacy, or it can create the of fact, they neither correspond regionally or globally. This destiny of the 21st. RF fantasy brought us the events in Georgia in 2008 and now Lamont Colucci is chair of politics and government at Ripon Ukraine and the Baltic. Seventh, NATO must adopt a cohesive counter- College, a former Fulbright scholar to the Diplomatic terrorism plan that is both united and aggressive. NATO Academy of Vienna and author of “The National Security countries must recognize that the enemy is jihadism and Doctrines of the American Presidency: How they Shape our that unless their power centers are removed outside of Present and Future,” among other books. 10



Scalia Election ELIZABETH SLATTERY was a victory for the Little Sisters and other challengers, The just-concluded Supreme Court term starkly makes the justices did not rule on the merits of their claims. It’s the case for why the Court should be at the forefront of hard not to imagine the full-throated defense of religious every voter’s mind this November. The sudden passing of freedom, like in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby (2014), the Court Justice Antonin Scalia in February led to deadlocks and might have issued had Scalia still been on the Court. compromises in some of the biggest cases of the term, In Fisher v. University of Texas at Austin, Abigail Fisher highlighting the importance of every seat on the Court. sued the school after she was denied admission, arguing Whomever the next president selects as Scalia’s that the school discriminated against replacement will be crucial to either her because she is white. The case preserving or eroding our rights, given reached the Supreme Court twice, the fact that the Court routinely hears with four members of the Court cases involving just about every aspect ruling this term that the school’s of Americans’ lives. Consider the race-conscious admissions program following cases: does not violate the Fourteenth In Friedrichs v. California Amendment’s Equal Protection Teachers Association, publicClause. Justice Elena Kagan recused school teachers who opted out of herself, so the case still may have union membership challenged the ended up tied 4-4 had Scalia been requirement that they subsidize the on the Court. It’s possible, however, costs of collective bargaining. The that Scalia could have persuaded teachers objected to being forced to the author of the majority opinion, pay for the union’s lobbying the state Justice Anthony Kennedy, to write a over teacher salaries and benefits, different sort of opinion. Kennedy’s arguing that this violates their opinion in Fisher II betrayed twoFirst Amendment free speech and and-a-half decades of his own equal associational rights. This case was protection jurisprudence and gutted seen as the best chance of reversing Elizabeth Slattery his prior opinion in the case, leaving a bad precedent dating back to the many Court watchers scratching their 1970s that allowed the government to Whomever the next heads. force employees to pay a “fair share” president selects as In Whole Woman’s Health v. for collective bargaining, even if they Hellerstedt, abortion clinics and opted out of union membership. Scalia Scalia’s replacement doctors challenged Texas’ law was considered a likely fifth vote for will be crucial to either updating the health and safety the teachers, but following his passing, standards for clinics and requiring preserving or eroding the case ended in a 4-4 tie. doctors who perform abortions In Zubik v. Burwell, numerous our rights. to have admitting privileges at a religious organizations, including the nearby hospital. They claimed that Little Sisters of the Poor, colleges, these regulations were intended to limit women’s access and charities challenged Obamacare’s requirement to abortion, while the state argued that its common sense that religiously-affiliated non-profit employers provide regulations advanced women’s health and safety. Five employee health insurance that covers potentially lifemembers of the Court concluded that neither provision ending drugs and devices. The Court issued a short, advanced the health of women and instead placed an “undue unsigned opinion instructing the lower courts to reconsider burden” on them. In an opinion by Justice Stephen Breyer, these claims in light of the government’s belated admission the Court rejected its longstanding precedents to rule in that it could provide the mandated coverage without forcing favor of the clinics and doctors. Once again, all eyes were on the employers to violate their religious beliefs. While this RIPON FORUM July 2016


Kennedy since he was the only justice to join the majority decision who also was on the Court at the time it decided Planned Parenthood of Southeast Pennsylvania v. Casey (1992), setting up the undue burden framework. Likewise, he authored Gonzalez v. Carhart (2007), finding that such regulations are subject only to rational basis review— the lowest standard of review. Scalia’s absence seems to coincide with a change in Kennedy. Though he has long been considered the “swing” vote on the Court, now he is rejecting his own precedents. Perhaps it was Scalia who kept Kennedy from going off the rails in areas where he traditionally had been more conservative. In United States v. Texas, the Court split 4-4 on the Obama administration’s authority to unilaterally change the law and give legal status and work authorizations to almost 5 million illegal aliens. Since the justices were unable to reach a result, the preliminary injunction issued by a district court judge in favor of Texas and 25 other states stands as the case continues. This likely means that the program is dead for the reminder of the Obama presidency, and the next president may decide to rescind the program or not defend the prior administration’s actions in court. Thus, this is a win for the separation of powers because at its core this case underscored the importance of each branch of government respecting the limits of its authority. Scalia was a strong

defender of the separation of powers, and he was not shy about chastising members of any branch of government when they stepped out of line. Imagine the harsh words he may have had for the administration had he been on the Court when it considered this case. These cases demonstrate the magnitude of issues the Supreme Court regularly considers each term. That’s why every justice matters, and why voters should consider what kind of justice the next president will put forward to replace Scalia. Another Obama justice likely would have ruled lockstep with the Court’s liberal block, allowing the administration to violate the separation of powers and trample religious freedom; restricting states’ ability to ensure women’s safety comes before the abortion industry’s profits; limiting public employees’ speech and associational rights; and permitting race-based discrimination at our nation’s colleges. Scalia’s seat is not the only one at stake. The next president may have the chance to appoint several justices over the course of the next eight years. This November, voters should think about why the Supreme Court matters. RF Elizabeth Slattery is a legal fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial Studies

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Cover Story

Why Trump

RESONATES Who better to shame Washington than someone who has no shame? by LOU ZICKAR 14


2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW In July 2008, the top political story in America was the is being well spent. This is especially true in tough economic rise of Barack Obama from relative political newcomer to times, when budgets are tight and dollars are few. presumptive Democratic nominee. Eight years later, a similar Unfortunately, it often seems like the only time that political story has taken hold. “value” is mentioned in Washington is when there is an “s” Donald Trump has gone from political novice to at the end of the word. Make no mistake – qualities like presumptive Republican presidential nominee in 12 short honesty and integrity are important in our elected leaders. But months. It’s too early to tell if Trump’s story will end the same so is making sure that taxpayers get something back for the way as Obama’s. But one thing is certain – Trump is the antihard-earned tax dollars they send to DC. In this election, it’s Obama of the 2016 presidential campaign. about value, not values. And therein lies the appeal of Donald Where Barack Obama promised to change Washington by Trump. bringing people together, Donald Trump promises to change Despite questions about his record, concerns about his Washington by blowing things up. He is a cruise missile positions, and misgivings about statements he has made that aimed at our nation’s capital. And in this year’s presidential would put any other candidate to shame, many taxpayers are primary, a record 13.4 million Republicans decided to launch giving the billionaire businessman the benefit of the doubt him on his way. because they believe he will bring an end to government For all their differences, though, it is worth noting that dysfunction and make government work. Whether it’s Trump’s rise is being building a wall along our fueled by much of the border or rebuilding our same discontent that crumbling bridges and fueled Obama’s rise in roads, the taxpayers who 2008. The discontent are supporting Donald is a product of the past Trump are doing so decade of dysfunction in because they believe he Washington, DC. From will provide them with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 a return on their federal to the Great Recession of investment by putting 2008 to the VA scandal their tax dollars to good of 2014 to the rise of use. In short, he will ISIS today, the federal provide them with value. government has repeatedly As for the criticism been unable to ward off that Trump has not issued threats and deal with any position papers problems effectively after has no interest in There is no silver bullet when it comes and they arise. public policy, these same to public policy. The only silver bullet taxpayers would also What makes Americans even angrier point out that America is political courage, and that has been is that the governing class has had a decade’s worth in short supply in recent years. in Washington appears of position papers from to be profiting from this presidential candidates. dysfunction. Between Where has it gotten the 2000 and 2012, the income of the typical household in our country? There is no silver bullet when it comes to public nation’s capital increased by 23.3%, while the median policy. The only silver bullet is political courage, and that has household income for the nation as a whole dropped by been in short supply in recent years. 6.6%. Washington was the only large metropolitan area in the Theodore Roosevelt once said that the American people country to make it through the recession virtually unscathed. are “slow to wrath, but when their wrath is once kindled, it Today, five of the 10 wealthiest counties in America are in the burns like a consuming flame.” In 2008, voters elected Barack DC metropolitan area. Obama to change Washington with a message of unity. That As a result of this disconnect and because of this didn’t work, and now the flame of their wrath is burning dysfunction, voter trust in America’s government – and bright. America’s governing class -- is now at or near an all-time low. Americans are ashamed of their government and And when voters are asked to identify the main problems ready to turn the tables on the governing class. Who facing the country, they increasingly rank government at or better to shame Washington than someone who has no near the top of the list. This dissatisfaction is not surprising. shame? RF The average American worker pays over $17,000 in payroll and income taxes each year. They want to know their money Lou Zickar is the Editor of The Ripon Forum. RIPON FORUM July 2016



Tradition and Novelty in Mr. Trump’s Running Mate Selection JOEL K. GOLDSTEIN Recent vice presidential selections have blended tradition had considerable experience in high governmental positions: and novelty. Presidential candidates usually follow similar Bush (10), Quayle (12), Ryan (14), Cheney (16), Dole (16) and selection procedures and criteria. Yet each selection presents Kemp (22). different options, in a different context, considered by a unique Republican presidential candidates who are D.C. outsiders selector. These factors always introduce variation amidst always choose D.C. insiders. Thus Governors Ronald Reagan, continuity. The 2016 Republican vice presidential candidate George W. Bush and Mitt Romney chose George H.W. Bush, remains uncertain but the selection Cheney and Ryan respectively. process will probably be unique even Not since 1948 has an outsider as it honors certain patterns. (Governor Tom Dewey) run with Vice presidential selection another outsider (Governor Earl changed in 1976. The move to Warren). presidential primaries and caucuses Republican vice presidential resolved presidential nominations candidates generally are chosen earlier (although not on the Republican in large part from, or to placate, side that year) and created a prethe more conservative wing of the convention vice presidential selection party. That tendency holds true for period of weeks to months. Intensive every selection since 1976 except vice presidential vetting preceded the Bush who Reagan, the conservative convention (including by President icon of the 20th century, chose. It Gerald R. Ford in 1976) and most also explains every selection from candidates engaged an experienced 1952 to 1976 except Henry Cabot lawyer to scrutinize prospective Lodge, Richard M. Nixon’s 1960 running mates and report either to the choice at a time when Nixon’s presidential candidate or a small circle conservative credentials were not of trusted advisers. As the second contested. office became more important and Donald Trump, this year’s as a vice presidential debate became presumptive nominee, has followed a standard campaign feature, most past practice by engaging A.B. presidential candidates recognized that Culvahouse, a respected Republican Joel K. Goldstein choosing a presidential running mate lawyer, to again vet prospective was politically wise. Ticket-balancing running mates (although Trump’s Republican presidential diminished but did not disappear. process was somewhat erratic in Recent Republican vice initially suggesting that Dr. Ben candidates who are D.C. presidential selections have followed Carson, then Corey Lewandowski, outsiders always choose several patterns. With one exception, would be heavily involved in the D.C. insiders. Republican presidential candidates process, decisions soon reversed). have chosen plausible presidents In other respects, Trump as their running mates. These include Senator Bob Dole, faces challenges which may cause deviation from these past Ambassador George H.W. Bush, Senator Dan Quayle, patterns. Whereas few Republican luminaries have declined former Secretary (of HUD) Jack Kemp, former Secretary (of to be considered for the second spot in recent years, Governors Defense) Dick Cheney, and Representative Paul Ryan. The John Kasich, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, and Rick Scott one exception was Senator John McCain’s choice of Governor and Senators Marco Rubio and Rob Portman are among the Sarah Palin; with less than two years in high governmental otherwise plausible running mates who have come close to office, her experience was far less than any running mate since issuing Shermanesque statements this year. Senator John Governor Spiro T. Agnew and she soon proved a campaign Thune has publicly wondered whether being Trump’s running liability. Other Republican vice presidential nominees have mate would be a good option for many potential candidates. 16


2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW Trump accordingly starts off with some “A” and “B” listers Sessions, and perhaps Senators Tom Cotton and Joni Ernst, apparently removing themselves from consideration. among others. But Gingrich and Christie carry baggage, Whereas prior Republican nominees have reached out Sessions has never been considered a national candidate, to opponents -- Ford chose Dole partly based on Reagan’s Ernst has less experience than any recent nominee other than recommendation, Reagan courted Ford and Bush, and Dole Palin, Cotton just a touch more, and Fallin helps little with the chose Kemp even after the latter endorsed Steve Forbes when national security imperative. Dole’s nomination Whereas past was a done deal -nominees used the Trump has publicly second spot to energize As the first presumptive presidential criticized leading the right, Trump nominee since Wendell Willkie in 1940 Republicans and has critics among without experience holding public office, Senator Ted Cruz’s has made statements which many, including supporters but also Trump, appears the consummate some vice presidential among establishment political outsider. possibilities, have Republicans. The denounced. second spot will not As the first mend all his fences. presumptive presidential nominee since Wendell Willkie in The most unusual Republican presidential candidate 1940 without experience holding public office, Trump, appears in recent history thus faces a challenging context with the consummate political outsider. Past practice would suggest constricted options, all of which may introduce even more he would seek someone with experience in Congress and/or novelty into 2016. RF the executive branch and who would compensate for his lack of a national security credential. Joel K. Goldstein is the Vincent C. Immel Professor of Law at Trump has some apparent options, like former Saint Louis University School of Law. He is also the author of presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Governor Chris The White House Vice Presidency: The Path to Significance, Christie, Governors Mary Fallin and Mike Pence, Senator Jeff Mondale to Biden (Kansas, 2016).

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Picking a VP:

Why Rules Matter BILLY PITTS It was a race like no other. running mate. McNary not only served as Minority Leader The Republican establishment had supported several of the U.S. Senate, but was also the leader of a “Stop candidates as their nominee for President. Willkie” movement at the Convention. Despite this earlier The early long shot was a well-heeled New York CEO disloyalty, Willkie accepted Martin’s recommendation, and of a major corporation who not only had never run for McNary was officially selected as the Vice Presidential public office, but at one-time had supported Democrats and nominee on the first ballot. many of their social programs. The Willkie-McNary ticket would go on to lose the At first, he was just a minor blip in public polling. election to Franklin D. Roosevelt and his running mate, But his candidacy was fueled by Henry Wallace, by a vote of 55endless favorable media attention. 45%. It would be another 12 And after a protracted fight at the years before Republicans won Republican National Convention, the White House. he was voted the Republican During that time – and, nominee. The year was 1940. The in fact, over the next three candidate was Wendell Willkie. decades – rules were adopted Given the “never before” that formalized the nomination quality of the 2016 presidential process at GOP conventions. race, it’s worth recalling that These rules shortened the length Republicans – and America – of nominating and seconding have seen their share of electoral speeches. They also required drama before. It’s also worth two calls of the roll for each state recalling that much of this drama during the Presidential and Vice has occurred at party conventions, Presidential nomination. The where candidates are considered, first call was intended to allow platforms are parsed, and rules states to formally place names are debated that have an impact in nomination; the second call beyond the convention’s three or was intended to provide a vote four days. to select the actual Presidential Take 1940. After Willkie and Vice Presidential nominees. Wendell Willkie won the nomination following a At the 1972 convention, a protracted fight at the convention, new nomination requirement Given the “never before” the big question was who his added. For the first time, quality of the 2016 presiden- was running mate should be. The New any candidate for President tial race, it’s worth recallYork businessman had apparently was required to have the given the question very little majority support from three ing that Republicans – and thought. Perhaps he recalled John state delegations in order to be America – have seen their Nance Garner’s observation from formally nominated. The rule eight years earlier that the office was put in place at the time to share of electoral drama was “not worth a bucket of warm prevent the anti-war candidate, before. spit.” Whatever the reason, he Pete McCloskey, from being delegated the decision to House nominated. There was no such Minority Leader Joe Martin. requirement for the number two Martin also served as Chairman of the Convention. In spot. what was likely one of the more intriguing decisions of In 1976, the rules were changed again. Three weeks his career, Martin selected Charles McNary as Willkie’s before the Kansas City convention, then-candidate Ronald 18


2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW Reagan announced that he was selecting Pennsylvania Kemp candidacy for VP. A challenge never materialized, Senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate. Reagan’s in large measure because the convention had adopted a announcement was part of a gambit that included an attempt temporary rule. The provision would allow a motion to to change the rules to force Gerald Ford to announce his nominate by acclamation if there was only one candidate choice. Ford had already tried to stack the deck against who had demonstrated the required support of the majority any opponent by adding rules that not only required formal of five states. No roll call was required, and Dan Quayle nominations to have the support of five states, but also was chosen in a matter of minutes. required delegates to abide by the results of their respective This temporary rule was made permanent in 1992, and state primaries. Reagan’s rules gambit in response failed. every nominee since then has been unopposed and selected Ford captured the nomination and selected Senator Bob quickly as the nominee. Dole over Nelson Rockefeller for Vice President. Many In 2000, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney -- one of the Reagan delegates were upset over their candidate’s of the supporters of the acclamation rule in 1988 -- was hard-fought loss. To demonstrate their ire, they placed chosen by acclamation even before the convention had Jesse Helms’ name in nomination, and voted for over 30 finally selected George W. Bush as their candidate for other people, as well. President. When Reagan In 2012, sweeping finally won the changes were adopted, nomination in Detroit including the new four years later, he requirement that chose George H. W. candidates for both Bush of Texas. Many President and Vice conservatives were President must now still angry about demonstrate the Bush’s primary run support of eight states. against their idol. To These rules were demonstrate their ire, made on behalf of the when the balloting presumptive nominee, began for Vice Mitt Romney, in large President, a number of measure to prevent delegates did not vote Ron Paul from being for Bush. Rather, they nominated. They also threw their support made any convention behind Phil Crane, challenge to a second Jesse Helms, Jack term bid more Kemp, Henry Hyde and difficult. three other conservative Some have The rules governing political conventions favorites. questioned whether have been used to obtain political ends in future Republican At the 1984 the past. That is likely to continue convention in Dallas, conventions should unity prevailed as continue with such in Cleveland. Republicans coalesced requirements for behind the reelection of formal nominations. Reagan and Bush. The party adopted a rule that required This year in particular, many are questioning whether a majority of five states to formally nominate both the delegates should be bound to vote according to their candidates for President and Vice President. The rule for respective state primaries. a first call of the roll of the states was also dispensed with, While it remains to be seen how these questions will a practice that has continued at every convention since. A be answered, one thing is certain -- the rules governing motion to suspend the rules was also adopted, allowing political conventions have been used to obtain political the delegates to vote for the nominees for both President ends in the past. and Vice President on the same ballot. This has never been That is likely to continue in Cleveland. RF done again. In 1988, on the second day of the convention, George Billy Pitts is a former Officer and Assistant to the Chairman H.W. Bush announced that he had selected Senator Dan at past Republican Conventions and former top aide to the Quayle as the choice for his Vice President. His choice was House Republican Leadership. He currently serves as a unexpected, and there was talk of the possibility of a Jack member of The Ripon Forum’s editorial board. RIPON FORUM July 2016



Time for a New Start

As another nomination process comes to an end, it’s time to consider changing where it begins TREY MAYFIELD In addition to officially selecting their Presidential nominee Sensing a chance to share the first-in-the nation limelight, for 2016, Republicans attending this year’s convention in the Iowa GOP decided to copy the Democrats, and hold its Cleveland will also be setting the rules that will govern the GOP own presidential caucuses in 1976. As a result of this series of nomination process in 2020. historical curiosities, the nation now finds itself descending on For 40 years now, this process has started in Iowa. But Iowa every four years to begin the nation’s primary season. But given the inordinate amount of time and money that candidates why should Iowa continue to occupy first in the nation status 40 spend in the Hawkeye State leading up to its first-in-the-nation years later? At least from a Republican perspective, it should not. contest, and given the fact that the winner of the Iowa Caucus Iowa’s caucuses are simply lousy at predicting the Republican is almost never presidential the eventual GOP nominee. nominee, perhaps Indeed, they it is time to make a aren’t even change. particularly After all, adept at Iowa became firstwinnowing the in-the-nation not field. because of a grand In fact, political plan, but since the because of a fluke. modern GOP The year was 1972. presidential When national primary system Democrats debuted in decided that year 1976, there to democratize have been eight their presidential competitive Given the fact that the winner of the Iowa selection process Republican Caucus is almost never the eventual GOP with a nominee contests (1984, selected by voters, 1992, and 2004 nominee, perhaps it is time to make a change. Iowa Democrats all featured decided to use the incumbent state’s traditional caucus system to choose their delegates to the GOP Presidents with no meaningful challengers). In those national convention, instead of the primary system most states eight nomination cycles, the Iowa winner went on to win the implemented. Republican nomination just three times. Put another way, Iowa’s In order to get the national delegates selected in time for the GOP caucus-goers picked the same candidate as the national summer convention, the Democrats had to hold their precinct party only 37.5% of the time. caucuses in the preceding winter so that there was time to How does this compare to other early states (defined complete the subsequent county, district, and state conventions. as one of the first ten contests in a given primary season)? Because Iowa’s process took so long, it had to be started long New Hampshire, home of the nation’s first primary, picked before other states. the eventual winner five out of eight times, a success rate of The 1972 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses garnered 62.5%. South Carolina has picked correctly six out of seven unexpected media coverage when the then-relatively unknown times -- 86%. Other early states also have better track records. Senator (and eventual nominee) George McGovern of South Wyoming, with five early contests, picked the winner 40% of Dakota made an unexpectedly strong showing against then- the time. Nevada and Michigan, with four early contests apiece, front-runner Senator Ed Muskie of Maine. have batted 50%. And Florida has correctly picked the ultimate 20


2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW Republican winner all four times it has held an early primary. evangelical Protestants are roughly 64% of Iowa’s Republican This track record is often excused by asserting the caucuses voters, they’re only about 35% of the GOP’s nationwide perform a winnowing function in the primary process, or, as the electorate. As Ted Cruz discovered this year, a Republican saying goes, “there are three tickets out of Iowa.” But even this candidate who frames himself to win Iowa is unlikely to travel rationale hardly withstands scrutiny. In the seven election cycles well in the rest of the country. with four or more candidates, Iowa has picked the eventual top Finally, the caucus process itself discourages turnout by three contenders just twice -- in 1988 and 2016, a 28.5% success Iowa’s electorate. Unlike a primary, where voters have all day rate. to cast their ballot, or even mail them in, caucuses require that Iowa’s most egregious failure to discern what the nation’s everyone seeking representation show up at a set time and day. Republican voters considered presidential material came in Iowans, however, must show up in person at 7:00 p.m. on a 2000 and 2008, with the same candidate: Senator John McCain winter weekday night. Even though Iowa has twice as many of Arizona. In 2000, McCain came in fifth place in Iowa’s eligible voters as New Hampshire, it has less than a third of the caucus, with less than five percent of the vote (behind Alan turnout. In 2016, 28% of eligible voters participated in the New Keyes and Gary Bauer). McCain went on to become George Hampshire, compared to 8% for Iowa. W. Bush’s only meaningful adversary that year, winning seven A couple of changes in the GOP’s rules would significantly states. Eight years later, McCain came in fourth, behind Mike ameliorate the problems created by Iowa’s caucuses. First, Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson. Nonetheless, the national GOP’s delegate allocation rules should be keyed McCain became the GOP’s 2008 standard-bearer. to each state’s Republican voter turnout. The current rules McCain’s problems in Iowa illustrate two key factors already provide bonus delegates for Republican presidential causing the state’s GOP electoral failures: ethanol and performance and electing Republican officials, as well as evangelicals. sanctions for states that violate timing and delegate allocation The federal government’s Renewable Fuels Standard rules. The rules should also incentivize Republican voter turnout. (“RFS”) of ethanol (and to a If states wish to keep their caucus lesser extent biodiesel) mandates (or convention systems), that accounts for $4.6 billion (3.5%) should be their prerogative, but After all, Iowa became firstof Iowa’s GDP. The industry the delegate allocation system in-the-nation not because of creates approximately 43,000 should prioritize the system that a grand political plan, but Iowan jobs, accounting for best reflects the preferences of about 3% of the state’s total Republican voters: primaries. because of a fluke. employment. The RFS also Second, no state should happens to be one of the worst have a sacrosanct position in the public policies ever designed, harming consumers, agriculture, primary calendar. There is much to be said for letting the primary the poor, energy efficiency, and the environment. Absent the process begin in small, low population states in order to give federal mandate, the industry would not exist. But because candidates with smaller budgets and/or low name recognition Iowa is first, presidential contenders swear fealty to the RFS in a chance to make their case to the voters. A tiered system of order to maintain their political viability in Iowa’s caucus. To regionally dispersed primaries based on state population, with his credit, Senator McCain consistently opposed the mandate, the order chosen randomly by the RNC, could significantly rendering him persona non grata in Iowa politics, where he then mitigate the practice of candidates trying to curry favor in a barely campaigned. particular state in order to vault their candidacies into contention While some may point to Senator Ted Cruz’s Iowa victory (e.g., ethanol and social conservatives in Iowa; protectionism this year as proof that ethanol’s interest has waned, the opposite and secularism in New Hampshire), as well as favorite-son is true: Cruz was able to win with 28% of the vote only because advantages. For instance, in a given year, Wyoming and there were eleven active candidates in the race. His next two Delaware could go first on the same day, followed two weeks closest competitors were pro-RFS candidates Donald Trump later by Maine, Hawaii, and Montana, and two weeks after that, and Marco Rubio, who garnered nearly half the Iowa vote Rhode Island, Alaska, Vermont, and South Dakota. And so on. between them. Cruz and Rand Paul (the only other anti-ethanol Iowa’s Republican caucuses have overwhelmingly failed to candidate) received only 33% of the vote combined. In 2012, correctly identify the eventual GOP nominee, and the Hawkeye anti-RFS candidates got 37% of the vote; in 2008, 24%, and 5% electorate doesn’t reflect the views of GOP voters nationwide, in 2000. Cruz’s success came from his assiduous cultivation of who are more ideologically diverse, and not beholden to a social conservatives, and the fracturing of the 2/3 pro-ethanol government welfare program. Having demonstrated its electoral vote among nine other candidates. ineptitude for over 30 years, Iowa’s undeserved first-in-theWhich brings us to McCain’s second problem: Iowa nation reign should end. RF Republicans are unrepresentative of the party at large. Forty percent of Iowa Republicans describe themselves as “Very Trey Mayfield is a constitutional litigator with the Washington, Conservative” compared to 25-30% nationwide. While white D.C. –area firm of Juris Day. RIPON FORUM July 2016





Storm Clouds

over Philadelphia SUSAN DEL PERCIO With many Republicans wringing their hands ‘establishment’ at a time when voters regard the very when they think about the candidate they are about to idea with deep antipathy.” nominate in Cleveland, it is worth noting that many Second, she has fundamental policy differences Democrats are doing the same thing when they think with Sanders. Brian Hanley outlined 15 of them for about the candidate they are about to nominate in the Huffington Post earlier this year. The differences Philadelphia. range from her opposition to a single payer health This year’s plan (something Democratic National Sanders supports) Convention was to his belief that the supposed to be a nation’s biggest banks coronation of sorts for should be broken up, Hillary Clinton. She something Secretary was the heir apparent Clinton (who made -- running as a Vice millions giving President normally speeches to Wall would with the full Street) opposes. support of the White The third and House behind her. perhaps the most But the challenge by daunting challenge Democratic Socialist she faces revolves Senator Bernie Sanders around the issue exposed her for who of trust – or lack she really is – a deeply thereof. Jonathan flawed candidate. Chait summed up She does not have this challenge in an an inspiring message article for New York like former President magazine last month. Bill Clinton’s “Putting “His supporters trust The challenge by Democratic Socialist People First” or Clinton far less than Senator Bernie Sanders exposed President Obama’s hers trust Sanders,” “Change We Can Chait wrote. “A Hillary Clinton for who she really is – Believe In.” In fact, significant chunk of a deeply flawed candidate. as we enter the general his base tells pollsters election campaign, her it won’t vote for strategy appears to be geared around a simple premise Clinton over Trump, leaving the polls precariously -- “I’m not Donald Trump.” This is an undeniable close.” premise, but is hardly an inspirational message for Even if Secretary Clinton makes some policy winning votes. shifts to placate Senator Sanders’ followers, will they As Secretary Clinton seeks a connection with actually believe her? In all likelihood, many will not. Senator Sanders’ supporters, she faces three challenges. Furthermore, it is also likely that Senator Sanders will First, she is viewed as part of a broken system. As continue to advocate for those issues that he campaigned Jeff Greenfield wrote in Politico, “Her public life -on and has long believed, leaving Team Clinton with the posts she has held, the positions she has adopted the distinct possibility that Sanders’ supporters will (and jettisoned) -- define her as a creature of the decide to stay home with their “Bernie or Bust” signs. RIPON FORUM July 2016


2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW If her support among Sanders voters is not The only reason Hillary Clinton will likely not lose concerning enough, Secretary Clinton also faces a the female vote is because Donald Trump’s negatives challenge among women voters. As Courtney Weaver among women are even higher. This is very concerning wrote in the Financial Times last month: “On paper for Republicans in down ballot races. There are many Clinton should have the support of most liberal or issues on which Mr. Trump could make inroads, but he moderate female voters in America. In reality, she is has squandered away opportunity after opportunity. struggling. Early polls suggest that the gender gap For this reason, Republicans must stop defending actually works in Trump’s favor, with Trump’s support and explaining Mr. Trump’s proposals and start going from men outmatching Clinton’s support from women. after Mrs. Clinton’s positions. The playbook for the And Clinton currently has worse numbers among Democrats is to define the Republican Party as the party women than Bill Clinton did of Trump. Now is the time in his 1992 presidential race for Republicans to fight back against George H.W. Bush. and define Hillary Clinton. Bill won the female vote by With the balance of the 17 points; Clinton has just a Senate at risk and concerns 13-point lead among women of a smaller majority in the in a matchup against Donald House of Representatives, Trump, according to the Wall let’s use our best weapon of Street Journal/NBC poll.” attack -- Secretary Clinton’s For millennials, many record and her desire to of whom are not familiar continue President Obama’s with her past, Mr. Trump’s failed policies. attacks labeling her an enabler Under President during her husband’s time in Obama’s tenure, the economy the White House have been is faltering with little growth effective. Similarly, the and labor force participation controversy surrounding her rate is at a 40-year low. And private email servers while let’s not forget Obamacare. she was Secretary of State has It will be nearly impossible Susan Del Percio taken a toll across women of for Hillary Clinton to defend all ages. As we now know, health insurance rates going she lied to the American up an average of 10%. Then, The playbook for the public about sending and there is the disastrous foreign Democrats is to define the receiving classified emails, a policy of the last seven and Republican Party as the party a half years. The Iran deal. practice which FBI Director James Comey scathingly Benghazi. Syria. And, of of Trump. Now is the time characterized as, “extremely course the infamous reset for Republicans to fight back careless.” As a result, a button that Secretary Clinton majority of the American presented to Russia. and define Hillary Clinton. people do not trust her. A It is critical for Republicans May survey conducted by the not to lose sight of the massively New York Times and CBS News bears this out, finding flawed candidacy of Hillary Clinton. There are serious issues that 64% of registered voters do not find either Hilary to jump on, and now is the time to pounce. RF Clinton or Donald Trump to be “honest or trustworthy. Writing about the survey, NYT reporter Amy Chlozick Susan Del Percio is a New York-based Republican concluded, “Ask voters why they don’t trust Mrs. strategist and founder of Susan Del Percio Strategies. Clinton, and again and again they will answer with a She previously served in the administration of Mayor single word: Emails.” Rudolph Giuliani.

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From Reagan & Ford to Trump & the Reality Show: 40 Years of Republican Conventions

Forty years ago this summer, Republicans gathered in Kansas City for the Republican National Convention of 1976. It would be the last time the GOP entered a convention without a clear nominee. It would also be the last time the party allowed an air of uncertainty to hang over the proceedings. In the years since, conventions would become set, staid affairs, where nothing was left to chance and the outcome was already known. Many began questioning whether conventions were even needed. The major networks were no longer covering all four nights, and what they did cover was limited to speeches and interviews in the 10-11 pm time slot. The expected nomination of Donald Trump at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland will likely change that. If GOP conventions since 1980 have followed a script, this one may well turn into a reality show – which is befitting given Trump’s years as host of the Apprentice, but is concerning for those who remember the chaotic convention of ’76 and the result at the ballot box later that fall. What follows is a brief summary of Republican Conventions over the past 40 years – the highs and lows and good and bad of each, and how all of it, and none of it, compares to what we may see in Cleveland this year.

1976: The Battle of Kansas City

The media responded by providing unprecedented levels Few conventions have been as contentious as the ­­ battle between President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan of television coverage. One Republican official lamented in America’s bicentennial year. One was an outsider -- a that “the prime-time factor dictates that the convention’s proceedings will start just after former actor and governor who cocktail time on its penultimate had electrified the conservative and ultimate night.”3 With movement. The other was an Reagan’s supporters issuing establishment Republican and rules challenges and so ardently unelected incumbent who had opposing Ford’s nomination, risen through the ranks. many feared a potential split Both had campaigned within the party, questioning if in the shadow of Watergate. the contested convention was Neither possessed enough “a prophecy that this year, as so delegates to win the nomination long threatened, the Republicans outright. Reagan’s supporters could go the way of the Whigs.”4 argued that their candidate The warnings did not brought a lot of people into prove prophetic. Ford won the party. “The fact that we’ve Few conventions have been as the nomination and went on had competition is a plus.”1 As contentious as the battle between to lose the election to Jimmy the convention began, many Carter, but the party survived – warned that the proceedings President Gerald Ford and as did Reagan, who, in part on will “be unlike any Republican Ronald Reagan. the strength of an electrifying National Convention you ever concession speech on the watched. It will be full of passions, conflict, gamesmanship, and suspense. It will be convention floor, emerged from Kansas City not only alive but politically stronger than ever. untidy. It will be fascinating.”2 1. Cannon, Lou an Broder, David “Battered Grand Old Party” Washington Post June 27, 1976: Print

3. Lelyuld, Joseph “Networks Face an Opportunity – and a Risk” New York Times August 16, 1976: Print

2. “A Guide for Convention Watching New York Times August 16, 1976: Print

4. Cannon, Lou an Broder, David “Battered Grand Old Party” Washington Post June 27, 1976: Print



2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW 1980: The Reagan Revolution A mere four years after narrowly losing the nomination to Ford, Reagan returned to the GOP Convention as the presumptive nominee. Whereas chaos and rules challenges were the order of the day in Kansas City, order and party unity were the rule of the day in Detroit. In fact, things were so orderly that some were worried that people would lose interest. “Reagan’s only problem in Detroit next week will be stage management, trying to stir some excitement in what promises to be one of the dullest GOP conventions in memory,” wrote Steve Neal of the Chicago Tribune. “The biggest question, of course, is the vice presidential nomination. To keep everyone guessing, Reagan probably won’t announce his choice until Thursday morning.”5 And that is exactly what he did. After seriously considering the idea of forming a unity ticket with his 1976 rival, former President Gerald Ford, Reagan settled on his rival from that year’s campaign – former CIA Director, George H.W. Bush. With the ticket set, Republicans left Detroit “with the hope that 1980 would be the breakthrough year for a born-again Republican Party, just as the 1932 election helped establish the Democrats as the pre-eminent party.”6 Over the next four years, Republican hopes would be realized. A new era was born.

America, and under the leadership of President Reagan, our country is prouder and stronger and better. Why would we ever want to return to where we were less than four short years ago?” Those who were around at the time can still hear legendary ad man Hal Riney saying the above words in the commercial that came to define the 1984 Reagan reelection campaign. The tone of the commercial – upbeat, positive, optimistic – was reflected in that summer’s GOP Convention in Dallas, as well. The Keynote Address was delivered by Katherine Ortega, the U.S. Treasurer and the daughter of Mexican immigrants, who – addressing not Republicans, but Democrats -- urged those in the opposing party to “join us now,” telling them, “Nuestra casa es su casa … Our home is your home.”7 After another masterful speech by Reagan to officially accept the nomination on Thursday night, Ray Charles performed an improvised rendition of “America the Beautiful” to close the convention and send Republicans off on their way to a 49-state landslide victory that fall.

1988: Passing of the Torch After defeating five other candidates in the Republican Party primary, George H.W. Bush traveled to the GOP Convention in New Orleans with one goal in mind – to officially accept the mantle from Ronald After defeating five other candidates Reagan as the 1988 1984: Morning in in the Republican Party primary, Republican presidential America nominee. “The vice “It’s morning again George H.W. Bush traveled to the GOP presidency is not really in America. Today more Convention in New Orleans with one the big story here at all,” men and women will go to goal in mind – to officially accept the GOP strategist John Sears work than ever before in our country’s history. With mantle from Ronald Reagan as the 1988 said at the time. “It’s how Bush does, it’s how he interest rates at about half Republican presidential nominee. comes across, particularly the record highs of 1980, Thursday night. nearly 2,000 families today As it turned out, will buy new homes, more than at any time in the past four years. This afternoon 6,500 the number two pick did end up being a big story when young men and women will be married, and with inflation at Bush surprised everyone by selecting Indiana Senator Dan less than half of what it was just four years ago, they can look Quayle as his running mate. But the surprise gave way to forward with confidence to the future. It’s morning again in wistfulness when Reagan gave an emotional farewell address on Wednesday evening, and by the time Bush outlined his vision for a “kinder, gentler nation” in his acceptance speech 5. Neal, Steve “This show will be all Reagan’s” Chicago Tribune July, 8, 1980: Print

6. Smith, Hedrick “GOP Hopes Go Beyond 1980 And Beyond the White House, NY Times, July 20, 1980: Print

7. Gerstel, Steve “Katherine Ortega sent two messages in delivering the Republican” UPI August 24, 1984



2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW the following night,” Republicans had begun to turn the page and look toward victory in November, which they achieved.

and why he was prepared to lead the party – and the nation – as President over the next four years. Despite her bravura performance, network ratings were down overall. The reason was simple: in selecting Kemp the Friday before the convention began, Dole took away the last bit of suspense that came with conventions of recent years. And in doing so, he took away one of the last reasons for the networks to provide three hours of coverage of the conventions for all four nights. “I can’t imagine devoting as much time or as many resources to convention coverage in the year 2000,” said CBS News President Andrew Hayward after the event.8

1992: End of an Era It could be argued that the face of the Republican Party began to officially change at the party’s 1992 convention in Houston. For even though Reagan came out of retirement to deliver one more hopeful speech on behalf of his successor, a darker mood descended upon the party’s gathering as well. The mood stemmed from an ailing economy, which had seen unemployment rise to nearly 8% over the previous two years, and by an uneven economic record during Bush’s first term, which had seen him going back on his “No 2000: New Vision for a New Taxes” pledge. New Century The mood was reflected By the time the outside the convention Republican National hall by the candidacy of Convention kicked off Ross Perot, a billionaire in Philadelphia four businessman who had years later, Americans launched a third party were ready for a change. bid for the White House Since the last election, earlier that year. Inside the country had seen a the hall, the dark mood President impeached, a was further reflected by the Speaker of the House step speech of Pat Buchanan, down, and a disturbing who mounted a populist increase in terrorist attacks challenge against Bush in on U.S. interests overseas. the primary and spoke of a The new century called for a new vision, and that’s culture war in remarks that The 9/11 terrorist attacks reordered just what George W. Bush would best be described as Bush’s priorities. He was now a War offered when he took to being off script. President. The 2004 Republican the convention stage to Bush still managed to formally accept the GOP’s leave the convention with National Convention in New York nomination for President. a 6-point bump in the polls, City reflected that. “This is a remarkable but the surge didn’t last, and moment in the life of on November 3rd, he went down to defeat. our nation,” the Texas Governor declared. “Never has the promise of prosperity 1996: The War Hero & the Quarterback been so vivid. But times of plenty, like times of crisis, are tests When Republicans traveled to San Diego for the GOP of American character … Big government is not the answer. Convention in 1996, they not only knew who their nominee But the alternative to bureaucracy is not indifference. It is was going to be, but who his running mate was going to to put conservative values and conservative ideas into the be, as well. Bob Dole and Jack Kemp brought years of thick of the fight for justice and opportunity. This is what I experience to the Republican ticket. They were the Senator mean by compassionate conservatism. And on this ground and the Secretary; the common sense conservative from the we will govern our nation.” heartland and the bleeding heart conservative from New York; the war hero and the quarterback. 2004: In the Shadow of 9/11 In addition to the acceptance speeches of the two Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore in 2000 in one of the running mates, one of the highlights of the convention closest and most contentious contests in election history. was the speech by Elizabeth Dole, who captivated those But if hard feelings existed after his victory, they were set in attendance with an Oprah-like performance that saw her aside at least temporarily on September 11th of the following leave the podium and, wireless mike in hand, stroll among the delegates on the convention floor telling them about the Bennet, James “Few Tears for the Death of the Network virtues of her husband, his lifetime of service to America, 8. Convention” NY Times September 1, 1996: Print 28


2016 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION PREVIEW year. The 2001 terrorist attacks changed America and the world for good. They also reordered Bush’s priorities. He was now a War President. And while there can be no doubt that he remained a compassionate conservative at heart, the main focus of his administration became keeping our country secure. The 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City reflected that. Held in Madison Square Garden just over three miles from Ground Zero, the convention was meant to remind people of the pain and suffering the country had gone through, and the considerable threats and challenges that still lie ahead. National security leaders such as Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain spoke, as did relatives and victims of the terrorist attacks. Like the two conventions before it, there was little suspense at the GOP convention in New York. But there was a lot of emotion. And at the end of the day, it can be argued that emotion – particularly as it relates to the fear of terrorism -- helped carry Bush through to victory later that year.

too much for the War Hero and the Hockey Mom to overcome in the end. 2012: Make My Day If one were looking for a reason why organizers like to follow a tight script when planning a political convention, then look no further than the 2012 GOP convention in Tampa. From having to delay the opening of the proceedings by one day because of a hurricane to having to contend with Clint Eastwood’s decision to carry on a conversation with an empty chair on the convention’s final night, the importance of proper planning and execution should be apparent for all to see. One mistake can overshadow a good message. Just ask Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. They received no bounce from the convention, and went on to lose a tough but very winnable race in the fall. Which brings us to…

2016: Trump & the Reality Show … t h e 2008: The War Hero & Republican National If one were looking for a reason the Hockey Mom Convention this year why organizers like to follow When John McCain in Cleveland. Donald a tight script when planning a astonished the political Trump certainly has world by picking the beaten the odds. An political convention, then look then-relatively unknown outsider with no political no further than the 2012 GOP Sarah Palin as his running experience, he stands on mate on August 29, the cusp of being formally convention in Tampa. 2008, one of the biggest named the GOP nominee. questions surrounding Despite this, a growing the following week’s GOP convention in Minneapolis number of delegates have launched an effort to stop him became -- “How will she do?” As it turned out, the self- in Cleveland. proclaimed hockey mom and one-term Alaska Governor The effort conjures up memories of 1976 and raises hit it out of the park, delivering what Chris Cillizza of the likelihood that this year’s convention will potentially The Washington Post later called the best speech of her stand in stark contrast to the relatively uneventful career. “She slayed,” Cillizza wrote.9 coronations of the recent past. It is unclear what will Her remarks, along with tributes to McCain’s long unfold in Cleveland; however, America’s love of reality record of military service and the nominee’s formal television promises high ratings and possibly even a acceptance speech the following night, helped propel the twist ending – an environment in which Donald Trump Republican ticket to a 5-point lead in the polls coming has always thrived. RF out of the convention. The lead didn’t last though. Two wars, a bad economy, and the promise of electing This report was prepared with the research and assistance the nation’s first African American President proved of Hannah Shepherd and Jesse Jacobs. Hannah is a rising 9. Cillizza, Chris “Seven years ago today, Sarah Palin gave the best speech of her career” Washington Post, September 3, 2015

junior at Miami University in Ohio, while Jesse is a rising junior at Georgetown. Both are serving as Michael G. Oxley Interns with The Ripon Society this summer.



News & Events

Young, Boustany & Heck Point to Economic Growth and National Security as Key Issues in Fall Campaign WASHINGTON, DC – With the which has disproportionately consultant for public and private general election just over four and adversely impacted so many organizations in his home state. months away, The Ripon Society Hoosiers. He concluded his remarks held a breakfast discussion yesterday “Indiana is the most by talking about the tenor of his morning with three Members of the manufacturing-intensive state in upcoming race, and some of the U.S. House of Representatives who the country. It’s understandable necessary distinctions he plans to are running for the U.S. Senate. that people are disaffected, as they draw with his opponent this fall. The Members were U.S. Rep. have been outsourced and their jobs “I will be running a positive Joe Heck (NV-3), U.S. Rep. Charles have been automated and so forth. campaign,” the Indiana lawmaker Boustany (LA-3), and U.S. Rep. But nonetheless, I think our job as stated. “But of course, I have to Todd Young (IN-9), who kicked off legislators and even as candidates is draw some distinctions. I’m a U.S. the discussion by Marine. He’s talking about his done different impressive victory things in his in the Indiana life, most of primary on May them involving 3rd, the challenges elected office for facing the people a long period of of his home state, time. He voted and some of the for Obamacare. issues that will He voted for be important in the stimulus the upcoming package. He election. voted for Cap and “We ended up Trade. I hope this winning 72,000 doesn’t sound more votes than negative – these our presumptive are just the facts. Republican And they’re nominee for unpopular facts “I think we are at an inflection point. President,” Young among most The future will depend on this stated. “We also Hoosiers. won among Cruz “With that election.” voters and Kasich said, my aim is Charles Boustany voters. The reason to ensure that we I bring that up is are sufficiently in part to preempt resourced and any questions about what I read into to go out there and continue to make focused between now and the end of the presidential race, because it’s the argument for things like free trade, the summer, so that the Democrats difficult for us to tease out of that tax reform, and regulatory reform, will perceive Indiana to be out of data really much useful information rather than embrace superficial reach – irrespective of what happens other than to continue doing what solutions. And I’ll be doing that on on other spots on the ballot.” we have been doing -- continue to the stump.” Boustany opened his remarks raise resources, continue to offer Young was elected to the House by talking not about his upcoming a solutions-oriented agenda, and in 2010. A graduate of the Naval race for the Senate, but about his also acknowledge the frustration Academy, he spent a decade serving background – both as a boy growing of folks on account of this dynamic in the military before returning to up in Louisiana and as a medical 21st century service-based economy, Indiana to work as a management professional later in life – and some 30


of the qualities he hopes to bring to the job. “I am the oldest of 10 kids,” he stated, “so I had to learn responsibility. My father would look at me and say, ‘You’re responsible for getting us all in one place at one time.’ In that context, we always had a lot of people at the dinner table, friends coming in and out. If you didn’t show up on time, you often missed a meal. So I learned you have to settle your differences and compromise. Otherwise, you may not get a meal if you showed up late. “Then as a heart surgeon, I learned three important things. One is trust. If you can’t earn trust as a heart surgeon, you are going to be very unsuccessful. Second, I learned to make decisions under life and death circumstances multiple times a day. So I am not intimidated very easy, and I am used to dealing with pressure. And third, I learned to be decisive -- make decisions based on the information that you have. “What I didn’t learn was patience. And I am very impatient with this place even now in my 12th year of serving. People are angry and frustrated across Louisiana and across the country. My message is: a) it’s worse than you think; and, b) it’s time to get serious about real solutions to problems. Don’t give me a 15-point plan about how you are going to change the world. Give me a problem and let me fashion a solution and take it from concept to legislation to law. That’s how I’ve tried to conduct myself in Congress, and that’s what I intend to do as a U.S. Senator.” Boustany was elected to the House in 2004 after spending more than 30 years as a cardiovascular surgeon. Recognized as one of Washington’s foremost experts on health care, he said that economic growth and national security will be key issues in the upcoming campaign, along with defending individual liberty and promoting innovation. “I am worried that this may be

the first time in the history of this country that if somebody has an idea and they try to launch a small business out of their garage, they’re going to fail,” he stated. “And if you fail, then you may not come back. Who’s going to give you credit? In the past, this country always valued entrepreneurship and risk taking. If you failed, you could come back and be successful. Abraham Lincoln is a prime example of that. But the fact is, I am worried. “I think we are at an inflection point. The future will depend on this election. We have to sustain a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate. Louisiana will be the last race, likely, in the country. Depending on the calculus, it could be the determining factor of whether there is a 51 seat majority or not. It could come down to that, and I am ready for that fight.” Heck echoed his colleague’s remarks. “I don’t think anybody in this room would doubt how important it is to have a Republican majority in 2017,” he stated. “I talk about it primarily from the perspective of Supreme Court nominations. The next President will have the ability to nominate two, three, maybe four Supreme Court Justices, which will allow for a generational impact that will far surpass the four or eight years that that occupant might have in the White House. So think about who you want conducting those confirmation hearings, regardless of who is making that nomination.” “As I’ve travelled around the state of Nevada, it’s pretty clear that after eight years of Barack Obama and 30 years of Harry Reid, both Americans and Nevadans are ready for a change. Because they do talk about the frustration, the anger, the disappointment that they’ve experienced – not just in the last eight years of this administration, but really in the last 30 years of Harry Reid holding this seat.” Heck was elected to the House RIPON FORUM July 2016

in 2010 after spending more than 35 years in public service as a physician, small business owner, Army Reservist, and community volunteer. In his remarks, he talked about visiting with people across his home state, and how four main areas seem to top their concerns. The areas are national security, jobs and economic growth, health care, and education. “I have lived and worked in every one of those four areas,” Heck observed. “So when somebody wants to talk about national security, I can go back to the fact that I am in my 26th year in the Army Reserve. I was honored to be promoted to brigadier general in 2014 and honored to command some of the finest men and women that this country has to offer. I was deployed three times – so I can talk about national security more so than probably anyone else currently serving. “If they want to talk about jobs and the economy, besides being a physician and working in a hospital emergency department, I had my own business. I had a homeland security consulting firm, so I know what it takes to run a business. My business during the 2008 recession, like most consulting firms, was the first to see hits. But I learned how to keep my doors open and make sure people got their paychecks, even though I went without the paycheck so we didn’t have to lay anybody off. So I know what it’s like to run a business in today’s economy. “On health care, I’ve had 25 years working in inner-city hospital emergency departments. If you want to know what works and doesn’t work in the health care system, come spend some time in an inner-city hospital emergency department. And lastly, on education, my undergraduate degree is actually in education.” Noting that he requested a seat on the Education and Workforce Committee when he was elected to Congress in 2010, the Nevada Republican concluded by declaring: “Education policy is important.” RF 31

Name: Susan W. Brooks Occupation: Representative of the Fifth District of Indiana Previous jobs held: Senior Vice President of Workforce Development and General Counsel at Ivy Tech Community College, U.S. Attorney General for the Southern District of Indiana, Deputy Mayor of Indianapolis, Criminal Defense Attorney Book(s) on my summer reading list: The Magnificent Mountain Women: Adventures in the Colorado Rockies by Janet Robertson Proudest achievement since coming to Congress: I continue to be proud of the work my colleagues and I are doing to address the heroin and opioid epidemic that is claiming 78 Americans every day. This epidemic is sweeping across the country, and as a member of the conference committee tasked with developing a final, comprehensive package of solutions, I’m confident that we can help people struggling with addiction and their families, and ultimately, save lives. Challenge facing your District that you’re working hard to address: Curbing heroin and opioid addiction is critical to the future of our country, and to my district. I’ve been focused on finding the root of the problem, which I believe is the culture of over-prescription that exists in this country. More than 80 percent of heroin users start with a legal prescription opioid, and we have to change patient expectations, prescriber guidelines, and pain management strategies to make sure that people are getting the care and treatment they need without creating an environment that can, in many cases, lead to addiction. Finish this sentence: “If I could give the Republican nominee one bit of advice, it would be…” Policies and ideas that isolate us or discriminate undermine our leadership in the world and divide our country. As we look towards November, it’s important we focus on what we’re for, rather than what we stand against. Our ‘A Better Way’ policy agenda is a great start, and I hope it’s an agenda where we can all find some common ground on the best way forward for our country.




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