May 19 letter, advice on trip

MEMOR-ANDUM TOR:

MR.

,,

russr\cER

/ , r #fu,| ,u ,^,_.4i?,.//I-

('

s'lggested Reply

Froa

You To Proressor

Brzczinski con.e ing u.s. Japan Policy

At Tab A is a snggested courtesy reply from you to Prolessof zbigliew Brsezinski, vlo vrote you outtining sewea1 problems he thougii you hight l.eep ro rnind -s you apptoa.h"d /our rapcn rrip: Japan, nore tha! any other hajor country, Ieers isolated internatiohatly.

TLey feel re lave let theh dovm, and reed soneone with whom they can opeEte potiticalty in a close relatiotrship. Youi Japan wisit colld help hemendously to assist ,apan to a.quire a seBe of di.ection, boih as regards its relation8 wit! the U.S. and tbe vorlil in general.

-

The c.mpetitioa for succession ro Saro las moweil Bo Iar rnar ve hay etrd up wiur ohi.a or eve. 1'anaka, rather tlan Fukuda. r a rough analogy to West German poliii.s can be dram, Sato equte. eitl Adenauer, Fukuda yith Erhardtr Ohid vith Kiesinge!, aad Tatraka witn Barzer/Shauss. To j@p l.oh .he d.5. ro rhe tast I ou,d iovo we a verv maror dis.orfirlin.

'E-.' dre ajs,or6r iih trrd"c r dn.l.a "5&!1y d,.". ry; a, h".c' "",r.,-,:-"ri, :n deat:-Es aU1 u",'-he dis,orri'u.1 / dChr be eomew\at no.d ind-pe,dervorld Iie in fhe tact that an inrense siluggte betveen Tanaka and Fukurta Ior succe6sio. vourd ]uke t'he succession catupeftion one vithin rhe LDP Mainstream, raiher than as neretoJore orc betueer rhe Maiosrream and rhose factiong oufgide it within ile Parry. srcl a siruggte wilt hawe obviors effecls for the lnture nnity of ihe LDP Mairstream -and probably aleo Japanese policies as an inililect conseqlence.l

-

-- The ,alanese wilr press you wely hard oa the senkakus terilod.t issue, and ]roy react wery emotionally unless ve somehow suppoft rhâ‚Ź Japanese clair. [W]rile ve camot deny tle poE3ibitity, we do not now lave evidâ‚Źnce that ure Japatre.e are heaiUng ia rhis airectioL And of course cawing in to Japanese dehands would land us or the Orinese tom of ur ?:"i:ll!HTP

,"-{tb

"""

reviev the 22 con.lusions and re.ommendations in tle Iinal chapter oI his mamscript c.veri4 lis lalf year lesidence in Japan vLi.l he sent you just prior io y.Dr De.ember 3 hreakfast aeetins" (These are or pases 142-1,16 ol the attaclhent at Tab C. )

-

You might

' h"r yo. s.8o i'- -re.,oP.ol-sso.B

.4Ertpw

cz:sr.i a t4oA-

r{i'}'\ n[Jri

c.t Ca

"r

I very mnch appreciated haling vo\. letrer .a Arrril 1l ponrfius !p lhc probl.DS ol Japan s Icelin3 ol inicrnarional isoi.tion, lle sncccssion io Sato, and 11,{: Serka kus. I am rookirg oye. again t11. 22 corchsi.ns and r!cohnendatioas ir thc conclu.nla chzpier oI yotr hartrs.ripi v}icI you scnt me jL,si Lelore ou. br.akfa3t gel-togctl)cr early last DccernLcr.

h.lrixl as I ap?roach my lriP 10 Japan, ,: r-. ,,.., 1.. l.. r r "'...".., Japan oler dre pasr rcar o. ro. I wonld like to sec tou '1 M." - ''rt, :s" nilt, ..o Pleasc lei rne hnov wlcn yotr plan t. be i. L'asliqton nert, and l,opefully lve c.n lL.d a .or!cnjc.t timc to m.er, Your tlorghts are

-- -1

Prof.ssor zLigniek ll.z.zinsllj C.lrn-bia U.iv..sity i. inc Ciry oI Ncv vorii Resear.h lrslilL,r. oD aronnluniii -rfialrs 420

fiest

I

l31n

Sf..r

N.w York, N.rr Yorli

1002?

5 !112

C! nispa.ched

,247,

Gh)

ir i,ltS

[-rrhmbi,r o111ihrl5rt, i$th Onrrrfli{rlE&d.

Hashington, D.

c.

20s00

Since you may be reavinS sholtty shele several brief thoushts with you:

fo!

Japan,

I

hope

I

n.y

(r) rhe b6ic probrcn in the arerican rapanese rerationship political, is not economic, llJhi1e the Ja?anese resent what re have done to then ecoronically, they do understaad - being econonic aninars hy ve shonld have done it. Accordinsly, their resentnent is nitigated rt is on the poriricar trme that the Japanese are troubled and feel thenselves beleaErered. In fac., I knov of no n.jor country in the vorld uhich feels ttself quite as isolated 5 contenpolary Japan. fte Japanese feel no one Nith ,hon they ca opemte poritica y on the rever of intinscy, s.d they feel stronSry that Ne hlve 1et th@ do{n. Moleove!, their international engagenent is in need of froemrk od none seens tn sight.

Your tlip could be extlene1y impoltart ald constructtve if you could sive the Japanese sone sense of direction, not onrr in rega s to this cou.try but in res.rds to Japan's role in the Norrd. Thrt sense of direction vilr requiae a vider frmevork and our wo governnents ough. ro be consulting n re closely on that topic.

(4 I have the feelins that Ne underâ‚ŹstiGte thâ‚Ź extent of changâ‚Ź in Japan. raon everything I read, I gather that the u,s. covemment is sti1l 6sunin8 that Fu*uda,i11 be the next trine Liristei. I lathe! fear that changes in Japan have moved so far that instead of Fukuda {e nay end up Nith ohira o! even perhaps Tanaka. I do not vish to stretch the point too fsr but a good i.sisnt into Nhat this nisht he ca. be susgested by the forloring anarosy vitl the political

llashineton, D.

c,

20s00

E

ardt

.

Fuloda

Kiesinqer = ohin Bar?erlstrauss : ranarta

r do not uish above, but a quick j@p f,on the filst to the last vourd nea a very najor discontinuity, and this is very uerl uhere ve night nov be heading, You ousht to be very (3) The Japanese rirl press you

on the senka*u islands, !!lr !!4! t" po'q'i-;i ,; ro- al e.orional-/ "

ahri-u.s. reaclioh unless ,e soneho, indicate tbar Japan has a lesitimate c1ain. Nhat if the Chinese (either ones) send their foices to prant the flas there after iray 1511

r

in Decenber ny relo.t on Japan (uhicrr h6 nou book forn). Perhaps soneone rast concluding section in rhich I itenize sone 2? co.crusions about Ja?a.. I feel tlat rhey ale stilt valid and you nay ,ish to he.r t]leh in nind uhen you (4)

beer published

sent you

in

I xish you arl the besr a.d I your forthconing [toscov trip befole you ale

off.

t1