24
January 2017
Countries in the region are pondering whether they will lose or gain from a Trump presidency – but the end results of this new era are hard to call.
Opinion
Balkan States Eye Their Prospects in Trump Era MARCUS TANNER | BIRN | LONDON
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cross the Balkans, people and politicians are waiting to see what Donald Trump’s arrival in the Oval office means for their particular country. Will it go up or down the American and international pecking order? Broadly speaking, Russia’s friends and sympathizers in Eastern Europe – Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria [to a degree] the Bosnian Serbs and the opposition in Montenegro are salivating at the thought of a Trump-Putin love-in, which they hope will strengthen their hands and allow them to capitalize on ties to the Kremlin. In the opposing corner, Romania, Kosovo, Albania, Croatia and Bosnia’s Bosniaks are eyeing the prospect of a US-Russia presidential powwow, mooted for a third country, possibly Iceland, with unease. They all joined, or supported, US-led sanctions on Russia with enthusiasm. None of them stands to gain that much from America’s reconciliation with its old adversary. On the contrary, they fear their old ally America could be about to serve them up on a plate to Moscow. In the short term, Trump’s inauguration as boss of the world’s only superpower is unlikely to change the Balkans much because the region is so low down the priority list of the new President – if, indeed, it features on the list at all. As befits someone whose life so far has been wrapped up in the world of New York real estate, Trump has shown only limited interest in foreign policy issues. Known concerns of Trump start with Russia – potential ally against ISIS; China – abusing free trade; the EU – doing the same; Mexico – stealing jobs, exporting criminals; Muslim countries generally – exporting terrorists; Britain – (“My mother adored the Queen”); Israel – must be supported at all costs. He has yet to say anything significant about Africa, Asia – bar China – or Eastern Europe. As for the former Yugoslavia, the only regional leader he has spoken to there since his election is the Prime Minister of Slovenia – and that only because wife Number 3, Melania, hails from Slovenia. In the long run, however, Trump’s sympathy for Russia, his obvious skepticism
The President of US, Donald Trump, former President, Barack Obama and their wifes during the inauguration day.
about NATO, and scarcely veiled antipathy to the EU can only be bad for countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina that depend heavily on the external support of the EU and NATO to hold together. Both NATO and the EU will, of course, continue to uphold Bosnia’s territorial integrity - but what value to Bosnia is NATO minus the US, its main component? As for the EU, if a pro-Russian is elected President of France this year - a distinct possibility - EU policy on the Balkans will be even less coherent than it was. Kosovo is another Balkan country that has reason to worry about the next few years. A more absent, isolationist US, concerned much more narrowly with America’s direct interests, could tempt discontented Serbia to try to “re-arrange” matters in the Balkans. It could “do a Crimea” in the Serbian-populated sliver of northern Kosovo, for example, and annex it. Without vigorous American back-up, the Kosovars could do little except protest.
Macedonia is another neuralgic point in the Balkans. Back in 2001, the outside world united to force rebel Albanians and Macedonians to the negotiating table. But it is worth remembering that, up till then, Macedonia’s armed forces had made little headway against ethnic Albanian insurgents - who had the advantage of holding an ethnically homogenous block of territory in the west bordering friendly states. Some Macedonian Albanians must surely be wondering if the world would react as decisively today, were they to try to break away again. These are all worst-case scenarios, however, and all depend on Trump more or less totally abdicating Washington’s old role as guarantor of a Pax Americana in the Balkans. So far, we have only the US Democrats’ word for it that Trump is Vladimir Putin’s puppet. Trump himself may have other ideas. An avowed American nationalist, he might equally decide that America’s tiny
allies in the Balkans deserve America’s continued support. In his business dealings, Trump was known for driving hard bargains, not for caving in. In that case, Kosovo, Albania, etc, might have little to worry about. It may also be the case that, as some Russia experts in the UK are suggesting, if Trump reaches some form of grand understanding with Putin, Russia will become less adventurous in the Balkans [and elsewhere] - not more. In recent years, Russia has been more of a spoiler than a real player in the Balkans, blocking things rather than starting them, and fomenting trouble from the sidelines – mainly to remind the rest of the world that it pays a price for excluding it. The hope is that Russia will become less of a frustrated troublemaker if it no longer feels so excluded. Once Trump and Putin actually meet, we will be in a position to tell.