WA DEFENCE REVIEW Annual Publication 2021-22 (subscription)

PUBLICATION

ANNUAL

2021-22

INDUSTRY | TECHNOLOGY | CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE & RESOURCES | POLICY | GEO-POLITICAL ANALYSIS | NATIONAL SECURITY

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EDITORIAL

INTRODUCTION

By Serge DeSilvaRanasinghe, Managing Editor,

WA DEFENCE REVIEW

Now celebrating over four years in operation, WA DEFENCE REVIEW is pleased to be releasing our latest Annual Publication, which is again the largest defence sector publication of its kind in Australia; indeed this edition has close to 100 more pages of content than last year’s.

Now celebrating over four years in operation, WA DEFENCE REVIEW is pleased to be releasing our latest Annual Publication, which is again the largest defence sector publication of its kind in Australia; indeed this edition has close to 100 more pages of content than last year’s.

Readers may note that we have also revised and updated the WA DEFENCE REVIEW masthead to reflect our broadening subject matter and multi-disciplinary interests. This diversification has enabled us to produce a slate of more refined products and services which will resonate with the defence sector, and the interests of a broad cross-section of Australian industry.

Some of the notable differences between this and previous editions include an added emphasis on editorial depth and quality of coverage, a greater variety of interesting content, and even more flair in the layout design, which is now accentuated with maps, infographics and illustrations.

We have introduced many new and topical columns, such as: Critical Infrastructure, Defence & Indigenous Engagement, Eastern Australian Security, Innovation & Disruptive Technologies, National Security Affairs, Naval & Maritime Affairs, Oceania Security, Southern Australian Security, Training & Simulation and West Coast Defence.

In terms of content, what is particularly noteworthy about this edition is the unconventional coverage of subjects that seldom receive serious attention. For instance, we have secured in-depth, high-profile interviews with the likes of GEN John W. ‘Jay’ Raymond, Chief of Space Operations, US Space Force, Paul Everingham, President,

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EDITION 4 • 2021-22

Chamber of Minerals & Energy WA and Kim Ellis, Director, Australian Antarctic Division to name a few.

More generally, WA DEFENCE REVIEW has continued to consolidate and refine our focus and objectives. Our Video Channel platform has been augmented by a series of new products and services and has to date received a total of nearly 30,000 views.

The Pragmatist: The Policy Blog of WA DEFENCE REVIEW remains a platform that publishes interesting featured content adding to the overall defence debate in Australia, with original articles being sourced by respected contributors who provide unique insights and analysis on a multiplicity of topics related to defence and national security.

Our events program remains varied, unique and engaging, and continues to evolve with new event concepts to be introduced soon. Since October 2020, we have hosted 11 major events including seven cocktail functions, one keynote speaker event and three exclusive roundtable luncheons addressing issues such as Indigenous engagement and the defence sector, the case for the Western Trade Coast, and a discussion on leadership and management. We look forward to customising our events program to meet the interests of the defence sector and to remaining at the helm of local, national and regional conversations and debates.

In February 2021, WA DEFENCE REVIEW appointed an honorary and multidisciplinary Editorial Advisory Group composed of prominent senior professionals representing a range of different sectors. The profiles of each of the group’s members can be viewed on our website. More recently,

in August 2021 and in line with our commitment to corporate social responsibility we appointed two Advocates, both of whom are veterans, namely Cherish McNamara (Advocate - Women in STEM) and Andre De Barr (Advocate - Veterans Engagement) to help advise WA DEFENCE REVIEW on how best to engage with relevant stakeholders that have relevance to the defence sector; such as charities, veterans’ groups and NGOs. WA DEFENCE REVIEW remains committed to providing a unique value proposition to the Australian defence sector. Indeed, it is our belief that WA’s strengths - whether in industry or strategic geography - have yet to be fully harnessed in the national interest and as such shall remain WA DEFENCE REVIEW’s ongoing focus to ensure that the west coast always has a voice in Australia’s defence and national security conversation.

Seen in this light we are pleased that a growing number of senior and respected defence industry figures recognise our efforts. “Over the four years I have been the Defence Advocate for Western Australia I have been impressed with the continuing maturity of debate within the state on defence sector issues,” said former WA Defence Advocate, RADM Raydon Gates AO CSM (Rtd). He further elaborated: “One of the leaders in this field has been the WA DEFENCE REVIEW, which has not only led engagement with defence industry in the state, but has, as is evident in this edition, gone from strength to strength in setting the geo-strategic context within which defence industry has to consistently excel as a fundamental input to capability. I therefore commend this edition of WA DEFENCE REVIEW to you.”

We hope you enjoy reading this year’s edition!

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EDITORIAL TEAM

Dr Stephanie Koorey

Consulting Editor & Senior Correspondent

Dr Peter Layton Senior Correspondent

Terry Booth Special Correspondent

CDRE Brett Dowsing, RAN (Rtd), Senior Defence Writer

Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe

Managing Editor editor@wadefencereview.com.au

Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe is the author of over 500 articles on topics spanning strategic policy, political risk, maritime Stephen Bunce Simon Louie Thomas Hage security, military affairs, transnational Defence Writer Defence Writer Defence Writer security and defence industry. He has interviewed numerous senior political, government, military and industry figures, with his work featured in publications such as The Diplomat, Harvard International Review, Forbes Asia, Jane’s Defence Weekly, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Military Technology, NAVAL FORCES, The Australian, Australian Financial Review, and many more. He has appeared on radio and television, chaired dozens of events and been invited to deliver presentations for organisations such as the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), Australasian Council of Security Professionals, Australian Defence College, Special Operations Command, Defence Imagery and Geospatial Organisation, Defence, Science and Technology and numerous other organisations. Serge is the Defence Advisor to the CORE Innovation Hub and The Centre for Entrepreneurial Research and and Innovation (CERI), is an Associate of Security Professionals Australasia, is an Honorary Fellow with the National Security Institute, University of Canberra, and is the former President of the Australian Industry & Defence Network of WA.

David Nicolson Photographer

Eddy Lidya

Photographer

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe.

®

Front Cover: The Royal Australian Navy’s clearance divers are integral to the protection of fleet assets and shore establishments. Seen here engaged in diving drills at Cockburn Sound in August 2021, is Australian Clearance Diver Team Four member, Able Seaman Clearance Diver (ABCD) Jordan Bitolkoski.

Editor, Publisher, Design and Production: Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe PO Box 6701, East Perth, WA 6892 For enquiries: admin@wadefencereview.com.au

Disclaimer: Any opinion expressed is the honest belief of the author based on all available facts, but is not necessarily the view of WA DEFENCE REVIEW or its employees. Comments and facts should not be relied upon by the reader in taking commercial, legal, financial, or other decisions. Articles are by their nature general, and readers are advised to seek specialist advice before acting on information published within which may not be appropriate for the readers’ particular circumstances. WA DEFENCE REVIEW will not accept liability for any error or omissions printed, however caused. All rights reserved. The ownership of trademarks is acknowledged. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form without the written permission of WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Copyright © 2021 WA DEFENCE REVIEW 4th Edition - printed November 2021. ISSN 2652-5852 Acknowledgements: WA DEFENCE REVIEW would like to acknowledge our valued clients for their ongoing support. We also greatly appreciate the support from our stakeholders and associates, namely the Australian Defence Force, Defence Media, JTSI, Defence West, Defence Science Centre, AIDN and the Henderson Alliance. Finally, it would be remiss to not sincerely thank the following individuals whose generous support made our latest edition achievable: Dr Stephanie Koorey, Colin Cairnes, RADM Raydon Gates AO CSM (Rtd), LCDR Fletcher Wall, RAN, CDRE Brett Dowsing, RAN (Rtd), Ross Louthean, John McIntosh, Peta Magorian, Pat Hall, Terry Booth, Simon Louie, Stephen Bunce, Thomas Hage, Dr Peter Layton and Kiki Stokar von Neuforn.

WA DEFENCE REVIEW is a registered trademark.

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Printed by: Vanguard Press - vanguardpress.com.au

CONTENTS 2. INTRODUCTION 4.

EDITORIAL TEAM

8.

AUSTRALIA’S DANGEROUS AND UNCERTAIN DECADE AHEAD

By RADM James Goldrick (Rtd)

16. AUKUS AND THE NEW INDOPACIFIC ALIGNMENT

By Prof Peter Leahy AC, LTGEN (Rtd) 20. EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW The Hon Kim Beazley AC Governor of Western Australia 30. A BALANCING ACT: HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE, DISASTER RELIEF AND THE ADF

By Dr Peter Layton & Prof Peter Leahy AC, LTGEN (Rtd) 34. EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW The Hon Melissa Price MP Minister for Defence Industry Australian Government 44. EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW The Hon Paul Papalia CSC MLA Minister for Defence Industry, Government of Western Australia 51. ADVOCATING FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S DEFENCE SECTOR: REFLECTING ON THE FIRST FOUR YEARS

By RADM Raydon Gates AO CSM (Rtd) 56. INFRASTRUCTURE, PLANNING, PEOPLE: DEFENCE WEST BUILDS ON STATE’S STRENGTHS

By Rebecca Brown 62. STATE OF THE DEFENCE SECTOR IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA 2021-22

By Thomas Hage & Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe 73. AUSTRALIA’S INDIAN OCEAN GATEWAY: WESTERN AUSTRALIA By the Hon Andrew Hastie MP 76. AUSTRALIA’S INDIAN OCEAN TERRITORIES: DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERATIONS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS By the Hon Nola Marino MP 80. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION AND AUSTRALIA’S NORTHWEST NEEDS MORE THAN JUST RECOGNITION Prof Peter J Dean

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87. WESTPORT: FUTUREPROOFING AN INTEGRAL LINK

By Patrick Seares 108. THE AUSTRALIAN MARINE COMPLEX: A PREEMINENT AUSTRALIAN INFRATSRUCTURE ASSET

By Stephen Bunce & Dr Gregor Ferguson 116. THE ARTEMIS MISSIONS TO MARS: AUSTRALIA, WATCH THIS SPACE

By Gregory M Hunter 124. EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW GEN John W ‘Jay’ Raymond Chief of Space Operations United States Space Force 136. AEROSPACE CONSIDERATIONS IN DEFENDING AUSTRALIA’S NORTH-WESTERN MARITIME APPROACHES

By AVM Brian Weston AM FRAeS (Rtd) 144. STATE OF AUSTRALIA’S UNCREWED AERIAL SYSTEMS SECTOR

By Greg Tyrrell 154. POISED FOR CHALLENGES AHEAD: THE FUTURE OF THE ARMY IN WESTERN AUSTEALIA

By BRIG Brett Chaloner 160. TURNING AN EAST COAST-CENTRIC ARMY’S ATTENTION NORTH WEST

By Stephen Bunce & Graham McKenzie-Smith AM 170. NORTHERN TERRITORY TO PLAY KEY ROLE IN QUAD AND AUKUS By the Hon Michael Gunner MLA 183. TASMANIA: AUSTRALIA’S MARITIME STATE & GATEWAY TO THE SOUTH

By RADM Steve Gilmore AM CSC (Rtd) 187. EXCLUSIVE NTERVIEW Kim Ellis Director, Australian Antarctic Division 202. NEW ZEALAND DEFENCE INDUSTRY: RELATIONSHIPS TRUMP CONTRACTS & COLLABORATION BEATS ISOLATION

By Andrew Ford 206. DEFENCE INDUSTRY PARTNERSHIPS KEY TO ACHIEVING SCALE

By Dr Jens Goennemann

210. SUBSEA INNOVATION CLUSTER AUSTRALIA: SYNERGIES BETWEEN DEFENCE AND THE ENERGY SECTOR

By Dr Colin McIvor 222. INTERVIEW Simon Harcombe, Tom Huberli and Riaan Bronkhorst RSM Australia 226. ACSC: FOCUSED ON CYBER SECURITY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

By Abigail Bradshaw CSC 234. DEFENCE CAN PLAY LEADING ROLE IN ENERGY TRANSITION

By Miranda Taylor 236. AUSTRALIA’S PERILOUS OVER-DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED FUEL

By AVM John Blackburn AO (Rtd) 245. GROWING A SMART AND TECHNOLOGICALLY SAVVY DEFENCE INDUSTRY WORKFORCE By the Hon Sue Ellery BA MLC 248. SOUTH METROPOLITAN TAFE: PREPARING THE NEXT GENERATION OF SKILLED DEFENCE INDUSTRY WORKERS

By Terry Durant 255. SIMULATION SYSTEMS IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA: VIRTUAL TRAINING FOR REAL WORLD READINESS

By Dr Peter Layton & Simon Louie 265. BUILDING INDIGENOUS BUSINESS TO ENHANCE SOVEREIGN CAPABILITY

By Adam Goodes 272. A STRONGER INDUSTRY FOR GREATER NATIONAL RESILINECE

By Brent Clark 275. SMALL BUSINESS SHOULD BE HEART AND SOUL OF DEFENCE INDUSTRY

By Rohan Green 282. EXCLUSIVE NTERVIEW Paul Everingham Chief Executive Chamber of Minerals and Energy of Western Australia 291. LOOKING AFTER OUR DIGGERS, OLD AND YOUNG By the Hon Andrew Gee MP

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ANALYSIS

CANBERRA MUSINGS

AUSTRALIA’S DANGEROUS AND UNCERTAIN DECADE AHEAD

By James Goldrick,

RADM (Rtd), Adjunct Professor at SDSC, Australian National University and at UNSW Canberra (ADFA).

We live in interesting times. Australia and its friends face the prospect of an increasingly powerful and authoritarian China bent on re-setting the global order and achieving dominance of its surrounding region.

FESTERING TENSIONS Taiwan is increasingly a point of tension, and one that carries far greater risk of precipitating major conflict than China’s claims in the South China Sea. As the centenary anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party confirmed, China is determined to reincorporate Taiwan into China.

An armed conflict between China and Taiwan would be in no one’s interests, least of all China itself, but there remains the danger that both external and domestic pressures, including China’s internal narrative of ultra-nationalism, may see events spiral out of control. Furthermore, possession of the island has a new significance for China since it would give its naval forces unfettered access to the deep waters of the Pacific and thus to the world’s oceans.

This would create immediate problems not only for the United States but for Japan as well; a seadependent nation whose maritime approaches would be at much greater risk from an all-round threat.

Japan’s increasingly robust attitude to the regional deployment of its own navy and recent public statements indicate that it is increasingly aware of its own interests in the continuing independence of Taiwan.

TESTING THE ALLIANCE The implication for Australia is huge: if Japan should be open in its support for Taiwan, a crisis over the island may rapidly become a test not only of our alliance with the US, but of our nascent security relationship with Japan.

Ships from the Australian, United States, Japanese and Indian navies sail in formation in the Indian Ocean at the start of phase two of Exercise MALABAR 2020. © Department of Defence.

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ANALYSIS

CANBERRA MUSINGS

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Credit: Kaboom Toons.

The South China Sea will provide other tests.

China continues to assert its power over the littoral states, which are subject to the continuing dilemma of balancing their own sovereign claims against the fear of Chinese reprisals. Australia cannot allow the South China Sea to become a closed sea, but our responses to China’s coercive behaviour and our presence in those waters and skies must be calibrated to the concerns of our friends in the region, as well as those of our major allies.

Such calibration applies in another region where Australia has key responsibilities - the South Pacific.

The more sensitive our support for the Pacific islandcountries, the more effective will be our efforts to ensure that the region does not become a new focus for strategic competition.

INDIAN OCEAN MILITARY BALANCE The Indian Ocean is already the scene of such strategic competition, although this is not in itself a trigger for conflict. China has legitimate interests and key vulnerabilities, notably its dependence on oil via the Strait of Hormuz and the hundreds of thousands of Chinese nationals in Africa and other parts of the Indian Ocean littoral.

China’s Belt and Road initiative has encountered several obstacles, but China is bent on exploiting

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Africa’s natural resources and, quite probably, its demographic boom as a source of cheap labour in the years ahead. Indeed, the key challenge for Australia may be in ensuring that our leading position in iron ore and other resources is not threatened by the Chinese development and exploitation of of African mines.

For India in particular – and, it should be observed, for several members of the European Union – there will be increasing challenges by China to their customary influence around the Indian Ocean littoral.

India itself will have to manage not only its contested land border with China, but the latter’s influence on Pakistan and in Afghanistan and other central Asian states. Australia will be a secondary player in this new ‘great game’ but cannot be oblivious to its outcome.

Most importantly, Australia needs to work with India to share the burden of balancing China’s maritime presence in the region.

What Australia will see, as the Chinese navy learns to use its new power projection capabilities, will be an increasingly powerful Chinese naval presence to its north west and west, at levels even greater than that of the anti-piracy and flag showing deployments of the last decade and a half. This may not happen for a year or two, since the Peoples Liberation Army Navy seems to be adopting a cautious approach, learning by doing with

ANALYSIS

“

CANBERRA MUSINGS

its aircraft carriers but keeping them close to home.

An armed conflict between China and Taiwan would be in no one’s interests, least of all China itself, but there remains the danger that both external and domestic pressures, including China’s internal narrative of ultra-nationalism, may see events spiral out of control. Furthermore, possession of the island has a new significance for China since it would give its naval forces unfettered access to the deep waters of the Pacific and thus to the world’s oceans.

Nevertheless, Chinese carrier battle and amphibious ready groups are likely to be a regular, if not semi-permanent presence in the Indian Ocean well before the end of the decade. They will be an important complement to China’s efforts to increase its influence around the Indian Ocean’s littoral. And they need to be matched, when appropriate, by an Australian maritime presence powerful and persistent enough to demonstrate our capacity for action.

Efforts to exert Australian influence must extend further. Our presence should also include measures which support maritime security in the wider sense, such as through capacity building in the smaller littoral states. This could include creating an Indian Ocean

The upgraded facilities at HMAS Stirling and Fleet Base West in Western Australia will gather renewed importance as the AUKUS trilateral security partnership rises in prominence. © Department of Defence.

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ANALYSIS

CANBERRA MUSINGS

Patrol Vessel Program and extending to the region the associated support and training programs which have underpinned the long-standing Pacific Patrol Boat Program and its successor Pacific Maritime Security Program. Another concept that has recently been proposed is the establishment of a Perth-based Indian Ocean Maritime Academy. As with the Pacific schemes, in which New Zealand plays a role, this does not have to be a purely national effort and could provide another avenue for cooperation with India.

arrangements. This has been strongly reaffirmed

by AUKUS, a major new agreement which has, interestingly, also demonstrated Britain’s renewed intent to be a contributor to Indo-Pacific security.

Nevertheless, success in handling the rise of China will also depend upon our ability to develop new links with Japan and India, and with countries like Indonesia - a nation too often given lesser priority in Australia’s external relationships - as well as the other members of ASEAN.

QUAD NOT ENOUGH

In other words, AUKUS and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ‘Quad’), are not enough.

They are extremely important - if not critical - but even the Quad must be much more than a military coalition. China’s economic bullying of Australia has provided a stark, perhaps timely, demonstration that

In managing these and other responses, Australia must be both independent and collaborative in asserting its national interests. The alliance with the US remains the keystone of our security

ANALYSIS

CANBERRA MUSINGS

“

Efforts to exert Australian influence must extend further. Our presence should also include measures which support maritime security in the wider sense, such as through capacity building in the smaller littoral states. This could include creating an Indian Ocean Patrol Vessel Program and extending to the region the associated support and training programs which have underpinned the long-standing Pacific Patrol Boat Program and its successor Pacific Maritime Security Program. Another concept that has recently been proposed is the establishment of a Perth-based Indian Ocean Maritime Academy.

economic and financial considerations are central elements in any national security strategy. So is technology, cooperation in which will be a key part of the AUKUS arrangements. More than ever, Australia’s instruments of government need to be both aligned and aware. This is important at both federal and state levels, as is the consistency of our external messaging.

This issue has been thrown into sharp relief by the mixed regional reactions to the surprise of the AUKUS announcement in September 2021.

Australia’s need to increase its strategic weight and to benefit from the full range of emerging technologies must be justified in terms which emphasise Australia’s interest in ensuring a secure and stable region for all.

Furthermore, the need for alignment goes much further than managing the rise of China. Dealing with the effects of revived great power rivalries and tensions does not mean that a multitude of other problems can be ignored. The toxic cocktail of climate change, environmental

degradation, and resource depletion – particularly of global fishery stocks – present both international and domestic challenges.

The ADF must manage its transition to being a force much more capable of sustained high intensity operations than at any time in its recent past, as it continues also to respond to emerging crises of governance and natural disasters.

There has to be a limit to the latter, however, and the national effort to strengthen Australian resilience must include greater emphasis on non-military domestic response capabilities. The need to bring in ADF staff not only for the immediate response to the COVID-19 pandemic but to help manage the national vaccination effort confirms that major improvements are needed in both Commonwealth and state governments’ civil structures for undertaking such operations.

Security challenges are also emerging in the military technology domain. In the 2020s, Australia’s research, development and manufacturing capabilities will be critical elements in our security strategy. Australia must exploit emerging technology to the greatest extent it can, while recognising that the ‘old economy’ of warfare will not go away. Unmanned

Another demonstration of the rapidly intensifying military cooperation between Australia and the United Kingdom as part of recently announced AUKUS trilateral security arrangement was the visit of HMS Astute, a Royal Navy nuclear submarine currently deployed to the Indo-Pacific region.

Australia’s Minister for Defence the Hon Peter Dutton MP conducted a press briefing at HMAS Stirling on 29 October 2021, flanked by the Hon Melissa Price MP, Minister for Defence Industry, Her Excellency Victoria Treadell, Britain’s High Commissioner to Australia, and VADM Michael Noonan, Chief of the Royal Australian Navy. © WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe.

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ANALYSIS

units will complement and extend the capabilities of manned platforms but cannot replace them outright, no matter how many systems will be ‘human on the loop’ rather than ‘human in the loop’.

HARD DECISIONS AHEAD Kinetic effects will continue to count; being able to deploy people and platforms over long distances and sustain them will still matter. AUKUS has created the prospect of Australia acquiring nuclear powered attack submarines, with a possible build in-country. Some hard decisions will need to be made about how such a capability can be achieved.

There are both short and long-term implications for Western Australia. The naval base at HMAS Stirling has long been a favoured destination for US nuclear-powered boats. It is likely that the frequency of such visits will increase, while there are indications that the United Kingdom is interested in using the facility during the operational deployments of its own submarines to the region. In the longer term, if Australia does bring such units into service, HMAS Stirling will almost certainly be their base and maintenance facility. Such support will never extend to nuclear refuelling, which is not required by the latest designs, but it will require the creation of new facilities and a workforce with new skills, as it will acceptance by the community of the permanent, rather than transient presence of nuclear-powered submarines.

CANBERRA MUSINGS

not to throw it off track. The reported delays to the Future Frigate at least indicate that the mistake, made too often in the past, of starting construction before the design is sufficiently mature, will not be made.

Nevertheless, in this and other major projects there is an element which cannot be ignored - our strategic warning time has reduced to practically nothing.

Australia, in other words, needs to get on with it.

The new focus in Defence on munitions, logistics and sustainment recognises this reality, as it does the fact that Australia will not be able to count on external military supplies in a major contingency. Indeed, the requirement for national resilience is one that cannot be ignored. Measures to improve fuel security must only be the start of a new effort to balance economic rationalism with an understanding of just what needs to be done and stored in Australia to maintain our island existence when our sea and airborne communications are under threat. There are many challenges, and we have much to do.

The surface ship program will require continuing attention if design problems and labour shortages are

The AUKUS trilateral security arrangement in action. On 29 October 2021 HMS Astute conducted a logistics resupply visit to HMAS Stirling during a deployment to the Indo-Pacific region in support of the Royal Navy’s carrier strike group. Pictured here is the Royal Navy nuclear submarine HMS Astute (back) berthed at Fleet Base West behind HMAS Rankin (front left) HMAS Collins (front right). © WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: Serge DeSilva-Ranasinghe.

EDITION 4 • 2021-22

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ANALYSIS

CANBERRA MUSINGS

AUKUS AND THE NEW INDOPACIFIC ALIGNMENT

By Professor Peter Leahy AC, LTGEN (Rtd), Director, National Security Institute, University of Canberra

Four recent and ongoing developments are dramatically transforming Australia’s strategic environment. First, the United States’ much delayed pivot away from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific is finally materialising. Second, the United Kingdom, in search of a post-Brexit foreign policy, is resurfacing in the Indo-Pacific. It is in fact the combination of these two developments which has served as the genesis for the AUKUS security partnership. Third, Australia has stopped sitting on the fence and come down on the side of security with the US over economic prosperity with China. The fourth but no less significant development is that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ‘Quad’), has now gained substance and real purpose.

On 16 September 2021, PM Scott Morrison alongside the Secretary of Defence Greg Moriarty and the Chief of Defence Force, LTGEN Angus Campbell, announced the AUKUS trilateral security partnership at a Parliament House, Canberra, press briefing. © Department of Defence. Photographer: Jay Cronan.

“

GEOGRAPHIC SWEET SPOT

Referred to as the ‘aircraft carrier of the Pacific’ during World War II, Australia provided a base for training, logistics, repair, sustainment and command and control.

As AUKUS unfolds expect Australia to perform a similar role.

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These developments highlight a new alignment in the Indo-Pacific, based on a collective pushback against an increasingly authoritarian, and assertive China; the Chinese Communist Party has miscalculated and now faces the prospect of being isolated in its own region. There is now a coalescence of values and interests across AUKUS, ANZUS and the Quad which adds strength and consistency to Australia’s security outlook.

While the early attention of AUKUS is on submarines, the focus, over time, is likely to be the pursuit of scientific, technical and industrial breakthroughs such as artificial intelligence, space, cybernetics, quantum physics, missile defence, hypersonics and autonomous systems. Aside from the military implications, Australian industry should also benefit through high levels of technology and industrial transfers, the sharing of innovations, and with contributions and access to supply and sustainment chains and critical raw materials.

AUKUS is also about geography. A 2013 report from the American Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment noted that Australia, sitting astride the Indian and Pacific Oceans, was in a ‘geographic sweet spot’. It also noted, for the first time since World War

ANALYSIS

CANBERRA MUSINGS

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Credit: Jacques Polome.

“

Western Australia, with open access to the Indian Ocean, has an important role to play. It already hosts large naval forces, air force ‘bare bases’ and important radar and electro-optical facilities for space surveillance and control. In the future it can provide port and land base options for allied forces, providing protection and enabling persistence.”

II, that Australian and American areas of strategic priority overlapped.

Covering the sea lanes across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and with easy access to the chokepoints into and out of the South China Sea, Australia’s position provides strategic depth to any IndoPacific campaigns. Much of America’s military capability is forward deployed in

vulnerable places like Japan, Guam and Diego Garcia. All are exposed to China’s increasing militarisation and growing sea, air, cyber and space capabilities.

AUSTRALIA’S CENTRAL ROLE Referred to as the ‘aircraft carrier of the Pacific’ during World War II, Australia provided a base for training, logistics, repair, sustainment and command and control. As AUKUS unfolds expect Australia to again perform a similar role. The US is currently undertaking a global force posture review to ensure the footprint of American troops worldwide is correctly sized and supports strategy.

Wait for Australia to be asked to help redress the imbalance in the Indo-Pacific.

Western Australia, with open access to the Indian Ocean, has an important role to play. It already hosts large naval forces, air force ‘bare bases’ and important radar and electro-optical facilities for space surveillance and control. In the future it can provide port and land base options for allied forces, providing protection and enabling persistence.

Don’t forget the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. Their position in the Indian Ocean, close to the sea lanes and maritime chokepoints through the Indonesian archipelago, provide

ideal launch and recovery options for reconnaissance and surveillance. Access to manouevre training areas will be important, as will range access for long-range artillery, missiles and electronic warfare capabilities.

Australia should expect requests for base access, forward deployments and substantial pre-positioning of equipment, stores and ammunition. Priority will be afforded to air and naval assets. Often neglected in Defence arrangements, attention should also be provided to the need for more army elements across Western Australia.

LONG TERM COSTS & BENEFITS As the details of the AUKUS partnership emerge, we need to be alert to the cost. In the first instance, expect a much larger Defence budget.

Moreover, with all the recent talk about sovereign defence capabilities and sovereign national interests we need be alert to maintaining our independence and freedom of thought and action within the developing web of partnerships, keeping in mind that AUKUS is backed by trust, resolve and shared values.

This new security partnership will undoubtedly be of enormous benefit to Australia, and support peace and security in the Indo-Pacific more broadly.

EDITION 4 • 2021-22

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BUILDING ON OUR PASSION AND HISTORY

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THE DNA OF SHIPBUILDING

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

By Stephen Bunce,

Defence Writer,

WA DEFENCE REVIEW

&

Serge DeSilvaRanasinghe, Managing Editor,

WA DEFENCE REVIEW

NATIONAL SECURTIY AFFAIRS

THE HON KIM BEAZLEY: “MORE AND MORE FOCUS WILL COME ON TO WESTERN AUSTRALIA, OUR STRATEGIC CONCERNS, AND OUR STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHY.” In August WA DEFENCE REVIEW had the pleasure of visiting Government House to conduct an exclusive interview with the Governor of Western Australia, the Hon Kim Beazley AC. The Governor’s impressive experience and knowledge of defence and keen understanding of the complex strategic issues key to the peace and prosperity of Australia and the region, made for a fascinating and insightful conversation.

How would you describe the circumstances of Australia’s present strategic challenges? Where are we at right now?

Australia is facing a more difficult situation than we have seen for a very long time and must think through the requirements of our national security with a maturity that we have not had to before. In the 1930s when we were faced with a survival threat, we considered ourselves under the umbrella of the British Empire defence, so there wasn’t the same sort of pressure on the leadership of the country. It was very difficult for that threat to be conceptualised by those who had responsibility for Australia’s defence.

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If you look at what potential adversaries would want from Australia in the future, the North West has a massive proportion of high-value product for our neighbourhood - and further afield. It is a place you might consider seizing if we had no capability in this region to deter.

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Now, however, Australia is intellectually up to the challenge and thoroughly aware of the extent to which we ourselves must look after our concerns in the first instance. Australia needs to persist with allies, but we need to have a very close understanding of what we want from them and whether what we want from them is doable. If it’s not, then we need to think through what extra we need to do.

What we must do is effectively deter. If we are going to effectively deter,

we need to demonstrate a capacity to meet all likely threats to us, and for any ally who chose to assist us to do something about it themselves. In practical terms that is to anticipate and be able to deal with the threat ourselves now, albeit with the help of the technologies and intelligence of your friends and allies. We need a deeper thought process about what it is that we need and where it ought to be dispersed to be able to achieve that deterrence.

World War II was the height of Australia’s awareness of the Indian Ocean’s importance – Australia’s navy deployed and lost a number of warships in the Indian Ocean and our connection to the British Empire was through this ocean. Do you think we are seeing a reawakening of Australian strategic consciousness of the Indian Ocean?

To a degree, yes. Would it be the extent to which the strategic considerations justify? No. Every now and then you see it pop up with a Defence strategic update which looked at the major threats to Australia, and what parts of the country would be of prime significance to a potential enemy. Much of the threat perception revolved around the North West and it continues to. If you look at what potential adversaries would want from Australia in the future, the North West has a massive proportion of high-value product for our neighbourhood - and further afield. It is a place you might consider seizing if we had no capability in this region to deter.

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

NATIONAL SECURTIY AFFAIRS

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: David Nicolson.

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“

Western Australia must have readily available the capability to facilitate the rapid deployment of the ADF through the north. There are two directions from which that can come - Darwin or Perth.

Given the importance of strengthening defence ties with regional neighbours in view of the deteriorating geo-political situation, do you see potential for RAAF Pearce to be used in a more significant training role with air forces from around the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific regions?

Well, the Singaporeans think it is a good idea with all their own initial training there.

It would require a bit more construction

because it’s all utilised now, but quite clearly it is capable of being used more than it is, even though it’s one of the busiest airports in the country. You can easily use it for general training purposes and for occasional deployments with quite a lot of countries involved. When you get out into the airfields used in the Western Australian countryside there is plenty of opportunity out there too - some of the best flying conditions you could conceivably imagine.

Yes, it is a good thought.

There has been growing talk of increasing the strength of the regular army presence in WA because it is currently quite limited. What role do you see the state playing in supporting the evolving status of the Indian Ocean region in Australia’s strategic calculus?

WA must have readily available the capability to facilitate the rapid deployment of the ADF through the north. There are two directions from which that can come - Darwin or Perth.

There is a bit of a mismatch now between our understanding of how we need to

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: David Nicolson.

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defend ourselves and the focus of our Defence structure. We are focusing on systems that are 15-30 years away from their full deployment. These systems are very appropriate in the ways that we define our needs, but they are way out of time. We must look at what we can do right now. We must ask ourselves the question: if you were going to sustain action for any period, what should you prioritise? Well, it is a matter of logistics, it’s an issue of your ammunition stocks, it is an issue of your oil stocks, it is an issue of hardening and spreading the bases that we have already. Almost nothing happening in contemporary force structure planning addresses these things.

It is not easy to leave a brigade of full-time soldiers in the North West as you have to support them, and let their families sustain liveable lives - but you do need them as close as you can get. In which case it is Darwin and Perth. That means both places having an effective brigade - a force that would not be readily overcome by an opponent. You also need the right type of navy and aircraft.

I am happier with the air force than any other service in terms of its structure and readiness to act.

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

NATIONAL SECURTIY AFFAIRS

“

There is a bit of a mismatch now between our understanding of how we need to defend ourselves and the focus of our Defence structure. We are focusing on systems that are 15-30 years away from their full deployment. These systems are very appropriate in the ways that we define our needs, but they are way out of time.

We must look at what we can do right now… Almost nothing happening in contemporary force structure planning addresses these things.

There should be more exercises. You need to practice in the areas where you might be engaged. They need more up near Yampi Sound. There are also other areas our ADF can exercise that may not be designated for the purpose. There are also all the desktop exercises that you need to do and the naval and air force exercises that can function through that area. We should be doing a lot more of that and making it obvious to all that we are. We have got a pretty good read on it all with our overthe-horizon radar system, the impact of our intelligence collaboration with the United States, our own Australian Signals Directorate. We’ve got a transparent region to our north and capacity to see what’s coming in a timely way.

Continuing with the theme of Indian Ocean security - what are your views on the security considerations for our Indian Ocean Territories such as Cocos and Keeling, Christmas Island, and our southern Indian Ocean areas.

These interests must take their place co-equally on the other side of the continent. The east coast also has its problems. We are more engaged in the South Pacific than we were. In terms of

© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: David Nicolson.

perceptions, from our allies and friends, and the region itself, we basically carry the card for the South Pacific, so we must be effective there too. The things that were effective such as patrol boats, patrolling and fishing agreements also apply in the Indian Ocean. That is an important sphere of influence.

In the Indian Ocean we have interesting friends and relationships developing, with India one such example.

They’re getting a good idea about what in our strategic geography is useful for them, so they are looking for more sophisticated engagement. India has their own massive security and health problems now, which are important to recognise. Then you have all the island nations that you must be concerned about – though not in the way you are concerned about the South Pacific. Some of these nations are bigger and much more complex, like Sri Lanka and the Seychelles.

We have discussed previously how Australia could strengthen its Indian Ocean engagement in a practical sense. Two notable concepts are the Indian Ocean patrol vessel program, and the Indian Ocean maritime academy.

What are your thoughts?

Many Indian Ocean nations are very maritime in their orientation, and in a sophisticated sense - obviously in the industry sense with their fishing industries - but also in terms of piracy and naval capabilities. There is a lot of sophisticated focus around the Indian Ocean region and we need a training establishment that goes beyond what you simply need to be a good marine engineer.

You need training that gives you a grasp of what you do with strategy, with all its ramifications. The fishing industry is appallingly impacted by gross overfishing and environmental degradation, yet it is so vital to most countries in that region.

You’ve got strategic issues, environmental issues, safety issues and sustainability issues. You need something that puts it all together and it may as well be here in WA. That’s a desirable objective.

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What an Indian Ocean stepup means is a much more sophisticated and complex concept to the one that applies in the South Pacific.

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© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: David Nicolson.

In addition to the patrol vessel program and a maritime academy, how else can we meaningfully enhance Australia’s security and influence in the Indian Ocean Region? For example, could we initiate a ‘step-up’ for the Indian Ocean, essentially replicating some elements of the Pacific Step-up?

We talk about it partly reflecting a reality, but also sending a message regarding the South Pacific, which we perceive to be under Australia’s bonnet. It is more complicated in the Indian Ocean region as you have big and effective powers in the Indian Ocean and on the littoral, as well as a number of smaller states that look

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like bit like the South Pacific states. We ourselves also extend a long way into the Indian Ocean with the Cocos and Keeling and Christmas Islands. They contribute opportunities but also present challenges.

The Indians are intrigued with what we are doing in the zones immediately adjacent to them. What an Indian Ocean step-up means is a much more sophisticated and complex concept to the one that applies in the South Pacific.

How do you see strategic competition evolving in Australia’s Southern Indian Ocean Territories such as Heard and McDonald Islands, and its Antarctic territory in the years ahead?

I think people have re-focused towards the area, particularly Antarctica. In part that is a derivative of what’s happening with obvious open competition in the Arctic with the Russians, Americans, Canadians, and Chinese. It is not quite the same in the south, but it will probably get there which brings into play the other islands you are talking about. That is quite costly and it’s the same problem you are confronted with in the north, so we really must build up a fleet with ice capable boats, which neither we nor the Americans have. The Russians perhaps do, and the Canadians and Chinese are working hard on it, and what is used in the northern waters you could be used down south. We have to think our way through that, but I think it’s not quite as urgent a problem as some of the others in the Indian Ocean. Our current problems

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“

Many Indian Ocean nations are very maritime in their orientation…There is a lot of sophisticated focus around the Indian Ocean region and we need a training establishment that goes beyond what you simply need to be a good marine engineer.

You need training that gives you a grasp of what you do with strategy, with all its ramifications… You’ve got strategic issues, environmental issues, safety issues and sustainability issues.

You need something that puts it all together and it may as well be here in WA. That’s a desirable objective.

in the Indian Ocean are in the northern Indian Ocean.

WA has a thriving local defence industry sector. What are some key opportunities that you see for the expansion of the sector?

We have the Australian Marine Complex in Henderson and HMAS Stirling on Garden

Island, but it’s much more than that – there are a very large number of derivative technologies from the mining industry, many of them a product of innovation in things like communication, autonomous vehicles and 3D manufacturing. What I find going around the state is that many of the local companies with these capabilities don’t fully comprehend their potential Defence value, with their primary focus on the civilian sector.

One of the good things with the WA government setting up the Defence Science Centre is that they have managed to get a chain of information to people about what they ought to be interesting themselves in, and the government’s approach to sovereign capability. There is robotics which the state excels in and the people associated with that are building up a bit of presence with Defence, but I don’t think we are recognised in the east as much as we should be. We have to be a bit louder in getting our capabilities across to Defence.

Some of the companies we dealt with have terrific communications background. There’s underwater gliders, and uncrewed vehicles and the like, both on land and in the water, as well as provision for drone type activity. Most EDITION 4 • 2021-22

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© WA DEFENCE REVIEW. Photographer: David Nicolson.

of them, fortuitously, have a priority for selling in the civilian area so that gives them considerable survivability if a tender submission they make to Defence does not eventuate. I didn’t necessarily think this when I became Governor, but now that I have had a chance to look around, you do see some potential.

How does the WA defence industry’s potential to increase its participation in the defence supply chain compare with other states, in terms of its overall efficacy?

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It is huge, we are very effective. A huge amount of the engineering capability for this stuff is in Victoria and a certain amount in South Australia, but South Australia don’t have the manpower.

In WA there is a match of skills and capability probably at least as good as in any other states. The major problem we have is that we are not the expected source. If you’re looking for an answer in the defence industry you don’t necessarily ring up and say it’s Perth. Although it is.

You’ve highlighted parallels and synergies between the resources and offshore oil and gas sectors

In terms of implications for Western Australia: enhanced security is central. We need to also be mindful that the foundation of AUKUS is mutual benefit. The Joint Leaders Statement is right to look holistically to consider industrial bases and supply chains. Western Australia is integral to the effective functioning of our allies and the world economy. Look no further than our resources that feed supply chains – whether they rare earths, iron ore or other critical resources – not to mention the innovation born out of this sector including remote operations and autonomous systems.

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with the defence sector. What more can be done to highlight the potential for different industries to further integrate and to promote that nationally?

For starters, listen to people. I think there is a very substantial capability in the west which, after its revealed and discussed, doesn’t get much follow-through with decision-makers. It should. Quite often there are alternative fixes for a problem from the eastern states’ perspective. They take it over and run with it and we tend to get neglected. Some of that is inherent prejudice, and that is not necessarily against us as westerners per se – it is just the response they have. Changing expectations is critical. If you’re a state politician - infuse it with the debate. It’s not an easy narrative to overcome but you just keep trying.

You have made interesting remarks about WA’s ascendency in Australian strategic culture and its role in Defence. What’s your prognosis for WA and its position in the national strategic debate over the next few years?

Generally, I expect it to be bright.

As time goes by more and more focus will come on to Western Australia, our

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

strategic concerns, and our strategic geography. I think we’ll be more and more effective in the way in which our people in the east see the world. They have a bit of tendency to jump quickly to forward defence in the east. That is fine but it’s beginning to look a bit sillier to be focused in that way. It suggests you are going to create trouble for people who you are not actually going to create trouble for, so you must be careful about that. I think that we will get it pretty right after a few more years of strategic debate from our point of view so I am hopeful.

Finally, what do you see as the strategic and regional security repercussions of the recent AUKUS trilateral security announcement? And what implications is AUKUS likely to have on the future of Western Australia’s security and defence sector?

First, we need to unpack what the announcement appears to entail.

AUKUS is much more than just plans

NATIONAL SECURTIY AFFAIRS

for Australia’s acquisition of nuclearpowered submarines. It is about cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, collaboration in hypersonics, wider undersea capabilities and also standoff strike. The cruise missile capabilities in particular will drastically change the strategic calculus in favour of Australia’s defence capabilities and the rules-based international order.

As might be expected, regional concerns including over Australia’s proposed acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines have been emerging internationally. I am however confident that Australia’s positive standing and strengthened capacities will ultimately serve to promote stability and negate concerns. The fact that our prosperity is mutually inclusive of our neighbours, and vice-versa, reinforces this.

In terms of implications for Western Australia: enhanced security is central.

We need to also be mindful that the foundation of AUKUS is mutual benefit.

The Joint Leaders Statement is right to look holistically to consider industrial bases and supply chains. Western Australia

is integral to the effective functioning of our allies and the world economy. Look no further than our resources that feed supply chains – whether they rare earths, iron ore or other critical resources – not to mention the innovation born out of this sector including remote operations and autonomous systems.

The intellectual capital in our resources sector clearly offers considerable applications in the defence and space domains. More to the point, Western Australia’s industrial capabilities are an integral pillar of the nation’s defence capability aspirations; as well as the potential for an industrial surge capability. In this state, we are not trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

Our industrial capacities are a natural fit for Defence and we need not drive the sector just for the sake of creating jobs at the expense of our national nor allied defence interests.

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