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WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Upside and
downside risks
Trade tensions, Brexit, the risk of another financial crisis, the rise of populism and the threat of sanctions are enough to make any self-respecting steel producer remain in their hotel room. However, those who found themselves in the Grand Ballroom of Tokyo’s Grand Hyatt hotel, attending this year’s World Steel Association General Assembly, were given plenty to think about, thanks to Emirates Steel’s CEO Saeed Ghumran Al Remeithi and his delivery of worldsteel’s global short-range outlook DESPITE everything that is going on in terms of tariffs, trade tensions and rising protectionism, there appears to be plenty of cautious optimism floating around, certainly in Tokyo at the recent World Steel General Assembly. Opening proceedings at the opulent Grand Hyatt hotel, the World Steel Association’s director-general, Dr. Edwin Basson, told those present that the global steel industry had grown 8% in terms of turnover, not bad when compared with other industries around the world. Dr. Basson said that the business environment surrounding the steel industry was favourable and that demand for steel was growing – gradually and continually. He said that these were times of huge change in terms of technological innovations, especially within the automotive industry – autonomous vehicles, electric cars – and that the steel industry needed to respond ‘appropriately and rapidly’ and make the most of the latest high tech itself, a specific November/December 2018
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reference to artificial intelligence and the associated technologies of Industry 4.0, or ‘smart manufacturing’. One of the defining moments of the World Steel General Assembly is the presentation of worldsteel’s global shortrange outlook. Resilience As chairman of the worldsteel economics committee, Saeed Ghumran Al Remeithi, who is also CEO of Emirates Steel, addressed delegates and journalists and commented: “In 2018, global steel demand continued to show resilience supported by the recovery in investment activities in developed economies and the improved performance of emerging economies.” Global steel demand will reach 1,657.9Mt in 2018, an increase of 3.9% when compared with 2017, according to the World Steel Association’s (worldsteel) October short-range outlook. In 2019 global steel demand is forecast to grow
1.4% to reach 1,681.2Mt. Demand for steel is expected to remain positive into 2019, Mr Al Remeithi said, growing at 1.4% globally. There are, however, a number of uncertainties from tensions in the global economic environment. According to worldsteel, while the strength of steel demand recovery seen in 2017 was carried over to 2018, risks have increased. Normalisation of monetary policies in the USA and the European Union could influence the currencies of emerging economies. In China, steel demand growth is expected to decelerate due to an absence of stimulus measures. Demand was boosted during H2 2018 by a mini stimulus in real estate and a strong global economy. However, worldsteel argues that continued economic rebalancing efforts and toughening environmental regulations will lead to a deceleration in steel demand towards the end of 2018 and 2019. www.steeltimesint.com
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