Surface-to-Air Missile Operator’s Sequence of Events KEY FINDINGS • While the act of shooting the missiles was a deliberate and intended action, the information available to the Forensic Team indicates the IRGC surface-to-air (SAM) unit operator likely misidentified Flight PS752 as a hostile target. • The IRGC SAM unit operator took a series of actions and made decisions that resulted in the downing of Flight PS752. The Forensic Team determined it is likely the SAM operator failed to align the direction indication system of the SA-15 unit properly or detect and correct the misalignment during the six hours after it was deployed and likely operational. • Analysis by the Forensic Team concluded that a misalignment of 105-degrees, when present, would have likely resulted in Flight PS752 appearing to approach the SAM operator from the southwest (Iraq) rather than the true direction from IKA which was from the southeast. However, it is the Forensic Team’s assessment that, in the context of military operations, a misalignment of this nature should have been detected. • Following delays and obfuscation in the days immediately following the downing, especially the numerous misleading pronouncements from Iranian civilian and military officials (including from the IRGC) Iran has now stated that they view the downing of PS752 as a mistake. The Forensic Team has found no information that contradicts the suggestion that the IRGC SAM operator mistook Flight PS752 as a hostile target and fired upon Flight PS752 without receiving the necessary approvals from command and control. The Forensic Team also found no evidence that Iranian officials ordered the shoot-down or that it was premeditated. • However, given the number and sequence of decisions, acts and omissions known to the Forensic Team, Iran has not provided sufficient information or explanations to account for the broader questions this raises regarding the proficiency of the IRGC SAM operator who downed Flight PS752. These include the adequacy of his training, the target validation process, and the supervision of SAM operators under such circumstances. • Without a credible and transparent accounting of the facts, including into the causes related to military activities, it is the Forensic Team’s assessment that the international aviation community cannot be assured that a similar tragedy will not occur again in the skies over Iran.
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