CONCLUSION

Conclusion

Given the totality of information available, the Forensic Team concludes that a series of acts and omissions by Iranian civil and military authorities caused a dangerous situation where previously identified risks were underestimated and not taken seriously. These acts and omissions were both in the development and the implementation of plans, systems and procedures. The following decisions created the conditions that allowed the SAM operator to launch missiles at Flight PS752:

• They launched a premeditated attack on US positions in Iraq that they believed, by their own admission, would likely generate a US response.

• They planned how they would likely respond to the anticipated US retaliation.

• They put their air defence on the highest level of alert and likely delegated down to a lower level authority to fire on aerial targets.

• They positioned anti-aircraft systems on high alert in close proximity to an international airport and tasked IRGC personnel with monitoring airspace in which approaching and departing civilian flights would be present.

• They conducted a severely flawed analysis, which determined that the risk of Iranian air defence forces misidentifying a civilian aircraft was “low.”

• Based on this analysis and despite these proximate military threats, they decided to keep the airspace over Tehran open; they issued no official warnings to civilian aircraft and they implemented only one measure to prevent misidentification that would have applied to Flight PS752. This measure failed due to foreseeable military inadequacies.

While the decision to keep the airspace open was arguably shared between military and civilian decision makers, the remaining decisions were exclusively made by Iran’s military.

The Forensic Team assesses that Iran’s official account of events, and specifically its Final Report, is absent a recognition of these deficiencies and the broader context of decision making. Moreover, Iran’s account of events to date has been wholly inadequate. While the Forensic Team believes that target misidentification was one of the causes, the Iranian government cannot expect the international community to set aside the other clear, immediate and systemic causes and contributing factors. This report has identified many of these failures and has indicated, where possible, the evidence that supports the Forensic Team’s assessment.

The Forensic Team determined Iran has fallen well short of providing a credible explanation of how and why the IRGC downed Flight PS752. While the Forensic Team found no evidence that the downing of Flight PS752 was premeditated, this in no way absolves Iran of its responsibility for the death of 176 innocent people. Iran is ultimately responsible for the actions it took – or failed to take – which led to the shoot-down. Iran’s Final Report does not provide any explanation as to why basic preventative measures

were not taken that could have avoided this tragedy. Iran is responsible for failing to protect these civilian lives and for its lack of subsequent transparency. Iran must provide solid evidence to establish the credibility of its account and remove any doubt on the chain of events that led to this tragedy.

Iran’s Final Report claims that Iran and the IRGC have instituted unspecified and unsubstantiated actions in response to its investigative findings. Iran has failed to clearly demonstrate what these actions were and what steps need to be taken to address the numerous deficiencies that caused and contributed to the downing of Flight PS752. There is no explanation of how similar shoot-downs might be prevented in the future. Most troubling, Iran has not outlined any concrete actions taken by the Iranian military to address the stated cause of the tragedy – the launching of missiles at a civilian aircraft.

Moving forward, it is of particular importance for the victims’ families, Canada, and the international community that Iran provide a transparent and credible explanation of the downing and provide facts to back up its assertions. Without knowing the answers to the many remaining critical questions, the international community cannot conclude that these deficiencies have been resolved. The international community is left to assume that civilian aircraft in Iranian airspace are still at risk, particularly when Iran heightens its defence posture during times of increased tension.

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