A Fine Line: International Penalty Shootouts Since 1976 (Rob Gill) by Prozone Sports Ltd

F I N E

L I N E

INTERNANTION PENALTY SHOOTOUTS SINCE 1976

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T H E

L I N E

U P

TIMELINE

HARD LINES

AIM OUTLINED

SIDELINES

ALONG THE LINE

HOLDING THE LINE

ACROSS THE LINE

FA L L I N LINE

DISCIPLINE

OFF LINE

HEADLINES

THE

P E N A LT Y

SHOOTOUT

THE

U LT I M AT E

W AY

DECIDE

F O O T B A L L M AT C H . W I T H J U S T A F I N E L I N E B E T W E E N S U C C E S S A N D FA I LU R E ,

SPOT

KICKS

ARE

I N V A R I A B LY

NERVOUS

AND

H I G H LY

D R A M AT I C S P E C TA C L E S . I N A Z E R O -S U M G A M E , A L L A P L AY E R M U S T D O T O B E S U C C E S S F U L I S E N S U R E T H AT T H E Y B E AT T H E G O A L K E E P E R FROM

YA R D S .

BUT

THINGS

ARE

R A R E LY

T H AT

SIMPLE

T I M E L I N E

GOAL MISS SAVE

FINAL 3RD PLACE

SEMI FINAL QUATER FINAL LAST 16 1976

EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP

1988

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

WORLD CUP

This book visualises international penalty shootouts since they were introduced in 1976. It considers all European Championship and World Cup shootouts since that date.

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

T I TMI EML EI LN I EN E

T h i s m a p d eTm h ios nm s tar p a t ed se m wohni cs h t r actoeus nw t rhi ei cs hh ca o v eu nf tarci e sd heaavceh foatcheedr ei na cah poet nh aelrt yi n a p e n a l t y s h o o t o u t . Tw s heonottyo-unti.n eTwdei n ff teyr-ennitn ec odui n ff terri ee ns t hcaov u e n rt er iseosr the adv et o r eas os rhtoe o d t ot o u t ai ns h o o t o u t i n o r d e r t o r eo so r dl veer at o mraetscohl .v eN ian em aotfc h w.h N i cihn ea roef swt ihl li cuhn a b reea tsetni l, l wu int b h e saet e vn en , w o ift h s e v e n o f t h e s e c o u n ttrhi eess en ec voeurnm t riisessi nnge vaesr i n mgi sl es ipnegnaa lstiyn.gSl e w ipt ez n e rallat y n.dS w a ri e t ztehrel aonndl ya treeatm he only team n e v e r t o s c onreev. eTr hteoy sm c oi srsee. dT h a lel yt h mrieses eodf at h l leti hr rcehea o n fc et hs ei inr tchhea n 2c 0 e0s6 i W n ot hr led 2C0u0p6. W o r l d C u p .

EURO E UP R EOPE

H A R D

L I N E S

STATISTICS FOR ALL PENALTIES

S AV E

M I S S

16.1%

9.1%

50% LOSE G OA L

50% WIN

74.8%

I N N E R O U T E R

C I R C L E

C IR C LE

RESULT

OUTCOME

Penalties can be cruel to teams. Sometimes a single miss can lose the game. By visualising win rates alongside goal rates, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s easy to identify t e a m s t h a t h a v e s u ff e r e d i n t h i s w a y . H o w e v e r , s o m e l u c k y t e a m s s t i l l achieve success even when they are not scoring all their penalties.

STATISTICS FOR ALL COUNTRIES

WIN RATE GOAL RATE

100% 100%

75% 72%

GERMANY

CZECHOSLOVAKIA

ARGENTINA

B E S T

57% 76%

67% 86%

67% 77%

PORTUGAL

SPAIN

WEST GERMANY

BRAZIL

50% 81%

50% 90%

50% 75%

50% 70%

FRANCE

DENMARK

SWEDEN

IRELAND

T O

67% 69%

W O R S T

38% 71%

20% 67%

14% 66%

0% 73%

0% 29%

ITALY

NETHERLANDS

ENGLAND

ROMANIA

MEXICO

CIRCLE SIZE = NUMBER OF SHOOTOUTS

TEAMS WITH ONLY ONE SHOOTOUT

100% 100%

CZECH

100% 100%

BELGIUM

PARAGUAY

SOUTH KOREA

TURKEY

100% 80%

100% 75%

URUGUAY

BULGARIA

REPUBLIC

0% 75%

0% 50%

0% 40%

0% 25%

0% 0%

JAPAN

GHANA

YUGOSLAVIA

CROATIA

SWITZERLAND

100% 75%

UKRAINE

A I M O U T L I N E D

By visualising shot direction as a percentage of all penalties t a ke n , i t b u i l d s u p a c l e a r i d e a of p o p u l a r a re a s t o a i m f o r. W h e n divided into individual countries, directional patterns start to a p p e a r. T h e g r a p h o n t h e r i g h t s h o w s a l l t h e d i re c t i o n a l m a p s l a y e re d o n t o p of e a c h o t h e r, d e m o n s t r at i n g t h at a p e n a l t y re a l l y could go in any direction.

Top Middle Top Left

50% 40% 30% 20% 10

Middle Left

Top Right

Middle Right

Bottom Left

Bottom Right Bottom Middle

STATISTICS FOR ALL COUNTRIES

TM TL

ARGENTINA

BELGIUM*

BRAZIL

TM TM TL

TM TR

TR ML

MR BL BL

BULGARIA*

CROATIA*

TM TL

CZECH REPUBLIC*

TM TL

CZECHOSLOVAKIA

DENMARK

ENGLAND

TM TM TL

TM TR

TR MR

ML ML

MR BL BL

GERMANY

TM TL

GHANA*

TM TL

BR BM

FRANCE

IRELAND

I TA LY

JAPAN*

TM TM TL

TM TR

TR ML

MR BL BL

TM TL

PARAGUAY*

NETHERLANDS

TM TL

BR BM

MEXICO

PORTUGAL

ROMANIA

SOUTH KOREA*

TM TM TL

TM TR

TR ML

BL BL

BR BM

SPAIN

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND*

TURKEY*

UKRAINE*

URUGUAY*

TM TM TL

TR ML

MR BL BL

BR BM

BEST

WEST GERMANY

YUGOSLAVIA*

*PL AYED ONCE

WORST

ACRO S S TH E LINE Scoring a penalty is relatively straightforward. Yo u h a v e t o s h o o t o n t a r g e t a n d m a k e s u r e t h e ball

crosses

the

line.

But

what

makes

the

perfect penalty taker? By studying the goal rates, here are the highest scoring factors that c o m b i n e t o c re at e a n e l i t e p e n a l t y t a ke r.

* A v e r a g e g o a l r a t e t a k e n f r o m e a c h f a c t o r s a v e r a g e . A v e r a g e i s d i ff e r e n t f o r e a c h f a c t o r .

THE BEST PENALTY TAKERS

POSITION:

FOOT:

SUBSTITUTE:

RUN:

STRIDES:

AIM:

ATTACKER

RIGHT

EXTRA TIME SUB

STARTS RUN OUTSIDE THE AREA

NINE

TOP LEFT

+7.00%

+6.93% +6.77%

+6.01%

+1.98% +1.68%

AVERAGE GOAL RATE

OFF

Unfortunately

some

LIN E

players

rarely

success when it comes to taking

enjoy

penalties.

These factors are the worst in each respective category. All are below average and would s i g n i fi c a n t l y r e d u c e t h e c h a n c e s o f s u c c e s s .

* A v e r a g e g o a l r a t e t a k e n f r o m e a c h f a c t o r s a v e r a g e . A v e r a g e i s d i ff e r e n t f o r e a c h f a c t o r .

AVERAGE GOAL RATE

-1.68%

-3.51%

-4.19%

-4.16%

-7.78%

-9.15%

POSITION:

FOOT:

SUBSTITUTE:

RUN:

STRIDES:

AIM:

DEFENDER

LEFT

NOT SUB

STARTS RUN INSIDE THE AREA

THREE

MIDDLE RIGHT

THE WORST PENALTY TAKERS

SUCCESS RATE

73 .9%

Players brought on in

SUCCESS RATE

75 .3%

However substitutes rarely take penalties, only one in four takers is a substitute.

extra time score 10.2% more penalties compared to the average success rate.

time on the pitch equates to a higher chance of scoring.

the game. Extra time substitutes have the best success rate, proving that less

Substitutes enjoy more success from penalties compared to players who start

S I D E L I N E S

85.0%

SUCCESS RATE

WINNERS REST DIFFERENCE

TEAMS AVERAGE M I N U T E S P L AY E D P E R P E N A LT Y

COMPARED TO LOOSING TEAM

-40

-20

100

120

success. A team with less playing time compared to their opponent is twice as likely to win the game.

time played per penalty. Reinforcing the point that less time on the pitch equates to a higher chance of

Te a m s w i t h l e s s p l a y i n g t i m e a r e m o r e l i k e l y t o w i n t h e g a m e . T h i s i s e v i d e n t w h e n a n a l y s i n g t h e a v e r a g e

WINNERS WITH LESS REST

WINNERS WITH MORE REST

WINNING TEAM LOSING TEAM

1 WINNER WITH SAME REST

KEY

A L O N G T H E L I N E S

T h i s fl o w c h a r t i s d e s i g n e d t o v i s u a l i s e w h e r e d i ff e r e n t t y p e s o f p l a y e r p r e f e r t o p l a c e t h e b a l l . It highlights that most missed penalties go over the

b a r.

H o w e v e r,

the

goalkeeper

has

never

made a save in the top third of the net. Aiming high means there is more chance of missing but hardly any chance of the keeper making a save.

KEY

GOAL MISS SAVE

*Goal viewed from takers perspective

OUTSIDE AREA

START OF RUN

INSIDE AREA

START OF RUN

RIGHT

INSIDE AREA

LEFT

FOOTED

TACKER

RIGHT

OUTSIDE AREA

LEFT

FOOTED

FENDER

LEFT

RIGHT

ALKEEPER

OUTSIDE AREA

START OF RUN

START OF RUN DFIELDER

START OF RUN

EDGE OF AREA INSIDE AREA

INSIDE AREA

EDGE OF AREA

FOOTED

LEFT

RIGHT

START OF RUN

INSIDE AREA

EDGE OF AREA

INSIDE AREA

START OF RUN

OUTSIDE AREA

EDGE OF AREA

INSIDE AREA

F A L L

I N

L I N E

O r d e r h a s a s t r a n g e e ff e c t o n t h e o u t c o m e o f a penalty.

The

fourth

penalty

taker

has

s i g n i fi c a n t l y l o w e r s u c c e s s r a t e c o m p a r e d t o t h e o t h e r fi r s t fi v e t a k e r s . H e i s t h e o n l y p e n a l t y taker to have a below average success rate.

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

1st

2nd

3rd

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th 5th

fe nd ke e r to s a rs a be r n ta d a e th ki ng re t e w o th he e 2n rst 4t h d p e

p en

1 2 ND 3 RD

DEF

4 TH

6 TH

7 TH

8 TH 9 TH ST

the fourth penalty.

foo

G PEN

AIM

1 2 ST

DIN

3 4 TH RD

5 TH

are more prominent on

g din i c a de n When fa ced with s o i e sur penalty extra pres s. the tak ers shoulder

e cc s hi

f ss s

pe T . t th m e ne e 4 h e s t tir n th t i n h e o ig d he le r t e d d t i in mp The m im e a t at e to plac stly o m

t os

t al

(either a miss or a save)

CESS

a unsuccessful outcome

SUC

RD 3 4

T FOOT

increase the chance of

ted play mp ers are are less successful d to Ho we the rig lik ver, ht footed players. ely left f t to b ooted pla yers are mos e fo und t aking the 4th penalty.

LEF

Factors that

6 TH

H E A D L I N E S DECIDING

NON DECIDING GOAL SUCCESSFUL

SUCCESS RATE 100%

90%

DECIDING - TO WIN

80%

NON-DECIDING DECIDING

70%

UNSUCCESSFUL

60%

DECIDING - TO SURVIVE

50%

MISS

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

30%

20%

40%

SAVE

50%

UNSUCCESS RATE AGGREGATED (SAVES MINUS MISSES)

PENALTY ORDER GOAL SUCCESSFUL

SUCCESS RATE

8TH 3RD 7 TH 8TH 9TH

100%

90%

5TH 6TH 80%

3RD

5TH

1ST 2ND 7 TH

70%

6TH

60%

9TH

UNSUCCESSFUL

4TH

50%

MISS

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

SAVE

UNSUCCESS RATE AGGREGATED (SAVES MINUS MISSES)

4TH

In a shootout there is always a deciding penalty that will win the tie. There are two possible situations where this penalty occurs; either win the game by scoring or win the game by saving. If you fail, the shootout continues. However players tend to experience an increase in performance when placed in this situation. Perhaps they don’t want to miss a chance to grab the headlines?

KEY

ALL PENALTIES

DECIDING PENALTIES ONLY

LESS PENALTIES TAKEN

MORE PENALTIES TAKEN

PENALTY TAKERS POSITION GOAL SUCCESSFUL

SUCCESS RATE

GOALKEEPER GOALKEEPER

100%

90% STRIKER STRIKER

80%

DEFENDER MIDFIELDER

70%

DEFENDER

UNSUCCESSFUL

MIDFIELDER 60%

50%

MISS

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

40%

50%

SAVE

UNSUCCESS RATE AGGREGATED (SAVES MINUS MISSES)

GOAL KEEPER’S DIVE DIRECTION GOAL SUCCESSFUL

SUCCESS RATE

NO DIVE NO DIVE

100%

90%

DIVE LEFT 80%

DIVE LEFT DIVE RIGHT 70%

UNSUCCESSFUL

60%

DIVE RIGHT

50%

MISS

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

20%

30%

SAVE

UNSUCCESS RATE AGGREGATED (SAVES MINUS MISSES)

plotting the outcomes from both deciding penalties and non

deciding penalties on the same graph it is easy to compare how d i ff e r e n t f a c t o r s p e r f o r m u n d e r t h e e x t r a p r e a s u r e . W h e n a f a c t o r ' s s u c c e s s i s a ff e c t e d , t h e r e i s a l a r g e c h a n g e i n t h e v e r t i c a l a x i s . T h e frequency of each factor is illustrated by the size of the outer circle.

H O L D

T H E

L I N E

The goalkeeperâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s primary task is to correctly anticipate the direction of the penalty. Going the wrong way almost guarantees failure, as does standing still. Every penalty where the keeper stayed central has been scored.

D I V E D

56% WRONG

I N

WRONG DIRECTION

5% SAVED

D I V E D

44% RIGHT

I N

RIGHT DIRECTION

13% SAVED

D I V E L E FT

S TAY C E N T R E

D I VE R I GHT

24%

19%

50%

47%

3% 50

Saves Made

KEY

Dived right direction Dived wrong direction

WINNING GAMES WITH SAVES 24.0

Goalkeepers pull out all the stops when faced with an V

TI AL

GAME

SAVES RATES

opportunity to win the game for their team. Performance is

16. 1% ALL PE

also increased when conceding the penalty will lose the game. Goalkeepers do a good job of holding the line when the result depends on it. The diagram below highlights penalties where the Goalkeeper has successfully taken their chance to either win the game or save his team from losing.

Euro 1996

Spain vs ENGL AND England save Spain’s 4th penalty to win the game 4-2.

World Cup 2006

World Cup 1998

Argentina vs GERMANY

Holland vs BRAZIL

Germany save Argentina’s 4th penalty to win the game 4-2.

Brazil save Holland’s 4th penalty to win the game 4-2.

World Cup 1990

Yugoslavia vs ARGENTINA Argentina save Yugoslavia’s 5th penalty to win the game 3-2.

World Cup 1994

Romania vs SWEDEN

World Cup 1998

ARGENTINA vs England

Sweden save Romania’s 6th penalty to win the game 5-4.

Argentina save England’s 5th penalty to win the game 4-3.

World Cup 1990 Euro 2000

Euro 2000

Italy vs HOLL AND

ITALY vs Holland

Holland save Italy’s 4th penalty to keep them in the tie.

Italy then react by saving Hollands 4th and win the game 3-1.

KEY

Save to win the game Save to survive

Italy vs ARGENTINA Argentina save Italy’s 5th penalty to win the game 4-3.

D I S C I P L I N E

P r o z o n e h a v e w o r k e d c l o s e l y w i t h t h e G e r m a n N a t i o n a l Te a m t o provide data-driven insights about their opposition. Barry McNeill, former Managing Director of Prozone, sheds some light on the process the German squad go through in order to make shootouts as familiar and comfortable as possible for the players: “ T h e c u r r e n t G e r m a n p e n a l t y s t r a t e g y i s s i m p l e b u t e ff e c t i v e . T h e squad is ranked according to penalty-taking ability at the start of a t o u r n a m e n t a n d e a c h p l a y e r i s g i v e n t w o s p e c i fi c p e n a l t i e s t o p r a c t i c e . For example, a player might be assigned top left (option one) and bottom right (option two) as their two penalties and will only practice shooting in those areas. “ W h e n i t c o m e s t o a s h o o t o u t , t h e t o p fi v e r a n k e d p l a y e r s o n t h e fi e l d will be selected to take spot kicks and the coach (informed by performance data on the opposition goalkeeper) will tell them whether to

take

their

fi r s t

second

penalty

option.

This

takes

the

decision-making pressure away from the player and transfers it to the coach. If the player hits the ball where he is told and the goalkeeper saves it, then he was only following orders. “In this system, when a player steps up to the spot, they know well in a d v a n c e w h e r e t h e y a r e g o i n g t o s h o o t a n d c a n b e c o n fi d e n t i n t h e amount of practice they have dedicated to the particular penalty they will take.”

E N G L A N D When we think of penalty shootouts, thoughts invariably turn to the rivalry between England and Germany. The two nations with hugely contrasting

records

from

the

penalty

spot

have

twice

faced

each

another in a shootout, with the Germans winning on both occasions.

SAVE 22.9%

5.7% 17.1%

17.1%

14.3% W I N M I S S

85.7% LOSE

11.4%

2.9%

8.6%

22.9%

BL G OA L

14.3%

11.4%

65.7%

30 40 20 20

0 Defenders

Midfielders

England

Attackers

Germany

Not a substitute

Normal time sub

England

Extra time sub

Germany

POSITION

SUBSTITUTE

England use more defenders

England rely on players who started

a n d m i d fi e l d e r s , w h o a r e n o t a s

the game, tiredness can contribute

e ff e c t i v e a s a t t a c k e r s .

to poorer performance.

G E R M A N Y Germany have scored 100% of their penalties against England and are regarded as the most clinical nation from 12 yards. England, on the other hand, have a notoriously poor record in shootouts.

What

a r e t h e G e r m a n s d o i n g d i ff e r e n t l y i n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e s u c h s u c c e s s ?

100% G O A L

7.1%

100% WIN

TR 14.3%

14.3%

21.4%

14.3%

21.4%

40 35 80

30 25

20 40

15 10

5 0

0 Left foot

Right foot Germany

England

Inside area

Edge of area Germany

Outside area England

FOOTED

START OF RUN

Germany use a higher percent of left footed

Germany prefer shorter runs, going against

players. This should put them at a disadvantage,

the rule that penalties taken from outside the

but they still manage to covert all their chances.

a r e a a r e m o r e e ff e c t i v e .

Hmm, some good points... Brazil is coming, should I be worried!?

FINISH LINE __________ Thanks to everyone who has supported me throughout this season. Fans, friends and family that have constantly taken interest in my game and put up with me talking about graphs, penalties and football for far too long. I also have to give a special mention to the team at Prozone, who supplied the penalty data for my study and h a v e c h e e r e d m e o n a l l t h e w a y t o t h e fi n a l w h i s t l e .

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