Housing market overview: Q4 2023
Sales Rentals
£203,100
*Excludes New Homes
Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer at PropertyPal commented on the housing market:
£143,700 Houses
£209,200
Last year ended more robustly than expected given the challenging economic conditions in the opening half of the year. For most of 2023, inflation was close to double digit territory, economic growth was muted and successive base rate hikes pushed mortgage rates over 5-6%. Despite this, newly agreed sales increased by 16% vs Q4 2022 levels, highlighting the underlying positive sentiment still prevailing in the market. Furthermore, demand (as measured by enquiries sent to estate agents for their listed properties), is 30% higher than last year and the average time to find a buyer is about 10 days faster than the longer term average. To add to the positive news, gradually improving inflation levels has created competitiveness in the lending markets with many mortgage rates sitting in the 4% range. These conditions give some more optimism for a more active market in 2024.
On the other hand, it would be careless to think that the full economic implications have been experienced. With inflation still double the Bank of England’s target and proving sticky, expect to see rates sitting at higher levels for much of 2024. The Bank also estimates around half of mortgaged households are yet to refinance their deals on the higher rates. As this happens, this disposable income will be sucked out of spending in a consumer driven economy. In addition, supply issues remain a stubborn challenge. New listings for sale are largely back to typical levels but much more is required to offset the erosion of stock levels of recent years.
On the pricing front, PropertyPal’s index suggests an increase of 4.2% over the last year. This is very similar to the Nationwide index which suggests growth of 4.5%. This compares to a UK wide fall of approximately 2%. It is very difficult to estimate pricing activity in the coming 12 months given uncertainty around interest rates and a General Election with some likely giveaways. Based on the current economic data, it is unlikely to see any meaningful growth in prices, but perhaps a more meaningful uplift in overall levels of activity
House prices by number of bedrooms
Apartments Houses
House prices across Northern Ireland
Derry City & Strabane Causeway Coast & Glens
N.Ireland prices: Q4 2023
£235,200
Houses
£239,100
Apartments
£196,500
No. of agreed sales
No. of ‘sale agreed’ properties by quarter, N.Ireland, 2016-2023
Q4 2023
5,105 Q4 2022
4,413 Q4 Avg (2016-2019) 5,778
Sales Volumes up 16% vs Q4 2022 levels but down by 12% vs 2016-2019 average.
Top selling areas across Northern Ireland
Average days on market to reach ‘sale agreed’, N. Ireland, 2016-2023
Apartments Houses
Average days on market for houses to reach ‘sale agreed’
Average days on market for apartments to reach ‘sale agreed’
New listings on PropertyPal
Location of advertised sales properties
3,882
newly listed properties available to purchase in Q4 2023
3,461 houses 421 apartments
New inventory % change vs Q4 2022 vs Q4 2019
Total inventory % change vs Q4 2022 vs Q4 2019
Market demand remains strong but supply a persistent challenge
Market Supply: down 5% on Q4 2022 levels
Number of new listings of properties for sale on PropertyPal by calendar month; 2015-2022
Market Demand: up 30% on Q4 2022 levels
PropertyPal Sales Market Demand Index: Down 7% Year
Note: Market demand based on enquiries to estate agents for property viewings and homebuyer services. Jan 2020 = 100 compared every monthly time period across different years relative to that period. When a figure highlights 120, this implies a 20% increase relative to Jan 2020 and equally a respective figure of 80, implies a 20% decrease.
Proportion
Listings experiencing price drops similar to historic norms
Proportion of properties listed for sale with asking price reductions during quarter, N.Ireland, 2016-2023
N.Ireland rents: Q4 2023
Rents by houses and apartments
Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer at PropertyPal commented on the rental market:
Rental market pressures remain at highly elevated levels. On average, there have been 75 enquiries per advertised rental on PropertyPal over the last three months, compared to a more typical 20 per property seen between the 2017-2019 period.
There is some evidence of supply beginning to rise and demand gradually cooling as rent levels increase. By Q4 2023, average rents are now £830 per month, approximately 10% higher than 2022 levels. This year may see more activity from the first time buyers segment as mortgage rates improve and stable labour market conditions with real income growth. Should this materialise, rental demand is expected to moderate and overall rent levels should gradually cool later in the year.
Rents by number of bedrooms
Houses
Apartments
Rents across Northern Ireland
Derry City & Strabane
Causeway Coast & Glens
Average days on market to reach ‘let agreed’, N. Ireland, 2016-2023
Apartments Houses
Average days on market for houses to reach ‘let agreed’
Average days on market for apartments to reach ‘let agreed’
New listings on PropertyPal
Location of advertised rental properties
newly listed properties available to rent in Q4 2023
1,927 houses
950 apartments
New inventory % change vs Q4 2022 vs Q4 2019
Total inventory % change vs Q4 2022 vs Q4 2019
Rental market - Supply demand imbalance persists
Number of new listings of properties for rent on PropertyPal by calendar month; 2015-2022
Market Supply: down 8% on Q4 2022 levels
Market Demand: up 30% on Q4 2022 levels
Note: Market demand based on enquiries to estate agents for property viewings and homebuyer services.
2020 = 100 compared every monthly time period across different years relative to that period. When a figure highlights 120, this implies a 20% increase relative to Jan 2020 and equally a respective figure of 80, implies a 20% decrease.
