Northern Ireland Housing Market Update - Q3 2023

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Housing market overview: Q3 2023

Sales Rentals

N.Ireland prices: Q3 2023

Prices by houses and apartments

£201,800

*Excludes New Homes

Houses

£207,900

£143,100

Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer at PropertyPal commented on the housing market:

Market activity continued to soften over the last three months as economic pressures and events of the last year became more apparent. Prices in the existing home segment of the market grew at a modest 0.6% over the past quarter, whilst new homes increased by 0.2%.

Newly agreed sales, a strong signal of economic confidence, fell by 15% compared to Q3 2022. However, the drop in transaction activity isn’t spread evenly across N.Ireland. Indeed, Mid & East Antrim, Lisburn & Castlereagh and Ards & North

Down have experienced more modest declines of 7%-10%. Meanwhile areas including Newry, Mourne & Down and Mid Ulster have fallen by a more significant 25% in sales.

The relatively subdued activity has been expected given the Bank of England’s ongoing monetary tightening position and heightened economic uncertainty. However, of encouragement, market analysts have revised down the UK’s projected interest rate path amid signs of a slowing labour market and inflationary pressures somewhat easing as a result of the Bank’s measures. This should continue to feed through into more competitive mortgage markets, supporting buyers borrowing capacity and boosting market activity in the medium term. A combination of stable labour markets, robust income growth and modest house price fluctuations may see affordability pressures ease in the coming months.

House prices by number of bedrooms

Apartments Houses

House prices across Northern Ireland

Derry
& Strabane
Causeway Coast & Glens

N.Ireland prices: Q3 2023

£234,400

Houses

£237,800

Apartments

£202,600

Sale agreed properties

No. of ‘sale agreed’ properties by quarter, N.Ireland, 2016-2023

Sales activity cooled across Q3

Top selling areas across Northern Ireland

Pockets of the country performing relatively well and apartment sales stable

Average days on market to reach ‘sale agreed’, N. Ireland, 2016-2023

Apartments Houses

Note: Based on listed property date until ‘sale agreed’ within 6 months of

Average days on market for houses to reach ‘sale agreed’

Average days on market for apartments to reach ‘sale agreed’

Note: Pre-covid avg. covers the period from 2016-2019

New listings on PropertyPal

Location of advertised sales properties

5,686

newly listed properties available to purchase in Q3 2023

5,118 houses 568 apartments

New inventory % change vs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2019

Total inventory % change vs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2019 -33%

Market demand remains strong but supply a persistent challenge

Market Supply: down 16% on Q3 2022 levels

Number of new listings of properties for sale on PropertyPal by calendar month; 2015-2022

Market Demand: down 9% on Q3 2022 levels

PropertyPal Sales Market Demand Index: Down 7%

Note: Market demand based on enquiries to estate agents for property viewings and homebuyer services. Jan 2020 = 100 compared every monthly time period across different years relative to that period. When a figure highlights 120, this implies a 20% increase relative to Jan 2020 and equally a respective figure of 80, implies a 20% decrease.

Proportion of

Listings experiencing price drops similar to historic norms

Proportion of properties listed for sale with asking price reductions during quarter, N.Ireland, 2016-2023

N.Ireland rents: Q3 2023

Rents by houses and apartments

Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer at PropertyPal commented on the rental market:

Rental market pressures remain at highly elevated levels driven by the persistent challenge of high demand and weak supply with approximately 50% fewer homes advertised for rent. On average, there have been 53 enquiries per advertised rental on PropertyPal over the last three months. This compares to an average of 66 per property throughout the past 2 years during the ‘covid boom’ or a more typical 20 per property seen between the 2017-2019 period.

This ongoing chronic mismatch, alongside high inflation and income growth is leading to steady increase in rent levels. The average rent has increased by 2.4% in the past three months, and by 9.5% over the past year, now sitting at £810 per month. This equates to an additional £70 per month increase in average rent levels.

Rents by number of bedrooms

Houses

Apartments

Rents across Northern Ireland

Derry City & Strabane Causeway Coast & Glens

Apartments Houses Average days on market to reach ‘let agreed’, N. Ireland, 2016-2023

Average days on market for houses to reach ‘let agreed’

Average days on market for apartments to reach ‘let agreed’

New listings on PropertyPal

Location of advertised rental properties

newly listed properties available to rent in Q3 2023

2,087 houses

1,122 apartments

New inventory % change vs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2019

Total inventory % change vs Q3 2022 vs Q3 2019

Rental market - Supply demand imbalance persists

Number of new listings of properties for rent on PropertyPal by calendar month; 2015-2022

Market Supply: down 8% on Q3 2022 levels

Market Demand: down 13% on Q3 2022 levels

Note: Market demand based on enquiries to estate agents for property viewings and homebuyer services. Jan 2020 = 100 compared every monthly time period across different years relative to that period. When a figure highlights 120, this implies a 20% increase relative to Jan 2020 and equally a respective figure of 80, implies a 20% decrease.

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