Northern Ireland Housing Market Update - Q3 2023

Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023

Housing market overview: Q3 2023 Sales

Rentals

All properties (average)*

All properties (average)

£201,800

£810p/m

*Excludes New Homes

Annual price growth

 5.7%

Houses

Quarterly price growth

 0.6%

Apartments

Annual rent growth

 9.5%

Houses

Quarterly rent growth

 2.4%

Apartments

£207,900

£143,100

£810p/m

£810p/m

Annual price growth

Annual price growth

Annual rent growth

Annual rent growth

 6.0%

 2.0%

 9.5%

 9.6%

Quarterly price growth

Quarterly price growth

Quarterly rent growth

Quarterly rent growth

 2.2%

 2.7%

 0.6%



-0.1%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 2

SALES N.Ireland prices: Q3 2023

Prices by houses and apartments Houses

Apartments

£220,000 £200,000

All properties*

£201,800

£180,000 £160,000

*Excludes New Homes

£140,000

Annual price growth

 5.7%

Quarterly price growth

 0.6%

£120,000 £100,000

 6.0%

Houses

£207,900

Quarterly price growth

 0.6%

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

Annual price growth

20 16

£80,000

Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer at PropertyPal commented on the housing market:

Market activity continued to soften over the last three months as economic pressures and events of the last year became more apparent. Prices in the existing home segment of the market grew at a modest 0.6% over the past quarter, whilst new homes increased by 0.2%.

Newly agreed sales, a strong signal of economic confidence, fell by 15% compared to Q3 2022. However, the drop in transaction activity isn’t spread evenly across N.Ireland. Indeed, Mid & East Antrim, Lisburn & Castlereagh and Ards & North Down have experienced more modest declines of 7%-10%. Meanwhile areas including Newry, Mourne & Down and Mid Ulster have fallen by a more significant 25% in sales.

Annual price growth

 2.0%

£143,100

Quarterly price growth



Apartments

-0.1%

The relatively subdued activity has been expected given the Bank of England’s ongoing monetary tightening position and heightened economic uncertainty. However, of encouragement, market analysts have revised down the UK’s projected interest rate path amid signs of a slowing labour market and inflationary pressures somewhat easing as a result of the Bank’s measures. This should continue to feed through into more competitive mortgage markets, supporting buyers borrowing capacity and boosting market activity in the medium term. A combination of stable labour markets, robust income growth and modest house price fluctuations may see affordability pressures ease in the coming months.

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 3

House prices by number of bedrooms Apartments

£250,000

£200,000

£200,000

£150,000

£150,000

£100,000

£100,000

£50,000

£50,000

£0

£0

20 23

20 16

Houses

Average price

Annual price growth

Quarterly price growth

Apartments

2 bed

£123,400

5.7%

1.2%

3 bed

£168,800

4.7%

4 bed

£284,700

5+ bed All houses

1 bed

20 23

£250,000

2 bed

20 22

£300,000

3+ bed

20 19

£300,000

20 22

£350,000

20 21

£350,000

20 20

£400,000

20 19

£400,000

20 18

£450,000

20 17

£450,000

20 16

£500,000

20 21

2 bed

3 bed

20 18

4 bed

20 17

5+ bed

£500,000

20 20

Houses

Average price

Annual price growth

Quarterly price growth

1 bed

£102,100

2.2%

0.2%

0.4%

2 bed

£135,700

2.8%

-0.0%

6.4%

0.9%

3+ bed

£220,600

-1.2%

-0.2%

£445,200

10.7%

1.0%

All apartments

£143,100

2.0%

-0.1%

£207,900

6.0%

0.6%

*Data excludes New Build Properties

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 4

House prices across Northern Ireland Causeway Coast & Glens

all properties

£208,600 annual

 5.0%

Northern Ireland

Mid & East Antrim

all properties

All properties

£178,700

quarterly

annual

 0.4%

£201,800

quarterly

 4.3%

 0.5%

Annual price growth

 5.7%

Causeway Coast & Glens

Derry City & Strabane

Quarterly price growth

 0.6%

all properties

£162,700 annual

 4.6%

Antrim & Newtownabbey

Mid & East Antrim

quarterly

 1.4%

all properties

Derry City & Strabane

£179,700 Antrim & Newtownabbey

annual

Ards & North Down

Mid Ulster

quarterly

2.8%

-0.1%

Belfast

Fermanagh & Omagh

Fermanagh & Omagh

all properties

£172,400 annual

 9.4%

Belfast

Lisburn & Castlereagh

all properties

£212,300 annual

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon

quarterly

 2.9%

quarterly

4.8%

Newry, Mourne & Down

-0.1%

Ards & North Down all properties

£236,800

Mid Ulster

annual

all properties

 5.6%

£163,400 annual

3.2%

quarterly

-0.1%

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon all properties

£177,400 annual

 7.4%

*Data excludes New Build Properties

quarterly

 0.5%

quarterly

 1.2%

Lisburn & Castlereagh Newry, Mourne & Down all properties

£205,500 annual

 4.8%

quarterly

all properties

£237,600 annual

 7.6%

quarterly

 0.4%

 0.3%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 5

NEW HOMES N.Ireland prices: Q3 2023

New Homes Annual growth in average listed prices, N.Ireland, 2017-2023

All properties

£234,400 Annual price growth

 1.7%

Quarterly price growth

 0.2%

20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10%

Annual price growth

 2.4 %

Houses

£237,800

Quarterly price growth

 0.4%

8% 6% 4% 1.7%

2%

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

Quarterly price growth



£202,600

20 18

 Apartments

-0.5%

0% 20 17

Annual price growth

-4.3%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 6

Sale agreed properties Sales activity cooled across Q3

No. of ‘sale agreed’ properties by quarter, N.Ireland, 2016-2023 10,000

9,000

Change vs Last Year

Change vs Pre-Covid Avg.

(2022)

(2017-2019)

July

-14%

-18%





7,000



8,000

-14%

August

6,000



5,000

-14%

September



3,000

-15%



4,000

-12%

2,000

Q3 Total 1,000



-15%

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

20 16

*Data includes New Build Properties

-14%



0

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 7

Top selling areas across Northern Ireland ‘Sale agreed’ properties in Q3 2023 by council area

No. of ‘sale agreed’ properties by detailed location, Q3 2023

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

Ar ds &

*Data includes New Build Properties

Ul st er M id

Be lfa st

Ar m No ag h, rt h Ba Do nb w rid n ge & Cr An ai tr ga im vo & n Ne w to w na Li bb sb ey ur n & Ca st le re ag M h id & Ea st Ca An us tr ew im ay Co as t& Ne Gl w ry en ,M s ou rn e & Do w De n rr y& St ra Fe ba rm ne an ag h & Om ag h

0

Area

Sales

Council Area

Botanic

191

Belfast

Titanic

176

Belfast

Ormiston

144

Belfast

Lisnasharragh

144

Belfast

Bangor East & Donaghadee

133

Ards & North Down

Bangor Central

133

Ards & North Down

Lurgan

121

Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon

Craigavon

120

Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon

Bangor West

114

Ards & North Down

Castlereagh South

114

Lisburn & Castlereagh

Causeway

111

Causeway Coast & Glens

Balmoral

111

Belfast

Antrim

108

Antrim & Newtownabbey

Banbridge

107

Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon

Castle

105

Belfast

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 8

Pockets of the country performing relatively well and apartment sales stable Sales volumes % change by council area vs 3 year average (2017-2019), year to date (Jan-Sept) 0

Sales volumes % change

-3

-5

Northern Ireland

-11%

-10

-11

Fermanagh & Omagh

-15

-3%

Mid Ulster

-23%

-20

Ul st er M id

No rth er n

Ne w to w na Lis bb bu ey rn & Ca st Ca le us re ew ag h ay Co as t& Ne Gl w ry en ,M s ou rn e & Do w De n rr y& St ra ba ne

Do w n &

No rth

Ar ds &

An tri m

Cr ai ga vo n

&

Be lfa st

Ar m ag h, Ba nb rid ge

Ea st An tri m

&

Om ag h

M id

& Fe rm an ag h

Ire la nd

-23

-25

Sales volumes by property style vs 3 year average (2017-2019), year to date (Jan-Sept) Houses

2022

2017-2019 avg

Fewer sales (No’s)

% change

Apartments

2022

2017-2019 avg

Fewer sales (No’s)

% change

2 bed

1,710

1,850

-140

-8%

1 bed

210

230

-20

-7%

3 bed

9,430

10,950

-1,520

-14%

2 bed

1,480

1,440

40

2%

4 bed

4,100

4,560

-460

-10%

3+ bed

210

240

-30

-14%

5+ bed

1,010

1,110

-100

-8%

All

1,900

1,910

-10

-1%

All

16,260

18,470

-2,210

-12%

Note: Data may not sum to total due to rounding to nearest 10.

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 9

Average days on market to reach sale agreed Average days on market to reach ‘sale agreed’, N. Ireland, 2016-2023 Houses

Average days on market for houses to reach ‘sale agreed’

Apartments

80

70

60

Pre-covid

60

days

43

days

Q3 2023

47

days

40

Average days on market for apartments to reach ‘sale agreed’

30

20

10 Pre-covid

Note: Based on listed property date until ‘sale agreed’ within 6 months of listing

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

0

20 16

No. of days

50

Q3 2022

63

days

Q3 2022

45

days

Q3 2023

49

days

Note: Pre-covid avg. covers the period from 2016-2019

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 10

New listings on PropertyPal

Location of advertised sales properties

5,686

Mid Ulster

4%

Fermanagh & Omagh

4%

Belfast

Derry City & Strabane

newly listed properties available to purchase in Q3 2023

22%

5%

Newry, Mourne & Down

6%

5,118 houses

568

apartments

Causeway Coast & Glens

8%

Ards & North Down

12%

New inventory % change vs Q3 2022

vs Q3 2019





-16%

-1%

Total inventory % change

 +1%

vs Q3 2019



vs Q3 2022

-33%

Mid & East Antrim

8%

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon

Antrim & Newtownabbey

9%

10%

Lisburn & Castlereagh

10%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 11

Market demand remains strong but supply a persistent challenge Market Supply: down 16% on Q3 Number of new listings of properties for2022 sale levels on PropertyPal by calendar month; 2015-2022 2019

2020

2021

2022

Market Demand: down 9% on Q3 2022 levels PropertyPal Sales Market Demand Index: Down 7% Year over Year

2023

2019

180

2020

2021

2022

2023

250

160

200

140

120

Jan 2020 = 100

80

100

60

40

50

20

De c

No v

Oc t

Se p

Au g

Ju l

Ju n

M ay

Ap r

M ar

Fe b

De c

No v

Oc t

Se p

Au g

Ju l

Ju n

M ay

Ap r

M ar

Fe b

Ja n

0

0

Ja n

Jan 2020 = 100

150

100

Note: Market demand based on enquiries to estate agents for property viewings and homebuyer services.

Jan 2020 = 100 compared every monthly time period across different years relative to that period. When a figure highlights 120, this implies a 20% increase relative to Jan 2020 and equally a respective figure of 80, implies a 20% decrease.

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 12

Listings experiencing price drops similar to historic norms Proportion of properties listed for sale with asking price reductions during quarter, N.Ireland, 2016-2023 7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

0%

20 16

Proportion of total listings for sale

6%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 13

RENTALS

Rents by houses and apartments

N.Ireland rents: Q3 2023

Houses

Apartments

£900

All properties

£810

£800

Annual rent growth

 9.5%

Quarterly rent growth

 2.4%

Average rent per month

p/m

£700

£600

£500

Annual rent growth

£810p/m

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

Quarterly rent growth

20 17

Houses

£400

20 16

 9.5%  2.2%

Jordan Buchanan, Chief Operating Officer at PropertyPal commented on the rental market:

Rental market pressures remain at highly elevated levels driven by the persistent challenge of high demand and weak supply with approximately 50% fewer homes advertised for rent. On average, there have been 53 enquiries per advertised rental on Annual rent growth

Apartments

£810p/m

PropertyPal over the last three months. This compares to an average of 66 per property throughout the past 2 years during

 9.6%

the ‘covid boom’ or a more typical 20 per property seen between the 2017-2019 period.

Quarterly rent growth

The average rent has increased by 2.4% in the past three months, and by 9.5% over the past year, now sitting at £810 per

 2.7%

This ongoing chronic mismatch, alongside high inflation and income growth is leading to steady increase in rent levels. month. This equates to an additional £70 per month increase in average rent levels.

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 14

Rents by number of bedrooms Houses

£1,300

£1,300

£1,200

£1,200

£1,100

£1,100

£1,000

£1,000

£800 £700 £600

£200

£200

£100

£100

£0

£0

Houses

Average rent p/m

Annual rent growth

Quarterly rent growth

2 bed

£697

10.4%

2.4%

3 bed

£780

9.6%

4 bed

£1,100

5+ bed All houses

20 16

20 23

£300

20 22

£300

20 21

£400

20 20

£400

20 19

£500

20 18

£500

Apartments

20 23

£600

£900

20 22

£700

1 bed

20 21

£800

2 bed

20 20

£900

20 18

Average rent per month

£1,400

20 17

3+ bed

£1,500

20 19

2 bed

3 bed

£1,400

20 16

Average rent per month

4 bed

20 17

5+ bed

£1,500

Apartments

Average rent p/m

Annual rent growth

Quarterly rent growth

1 bed

£651

7.6%

2.8%

2.4%

2 bed

£801

9.2%

2.3%

8.9%

1.5%

3+ bed

£1,088

13.9%

4.7%

£1,426

4.8%

0.8%

All apartments

£810

9.6%

2.7%

£810

9.5%

2.2%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 15

Rents across Northern Ireland Causeway Coast & Glens

all properties

£682p/m

annual

 14.5%

Northern Ireland

Mid & East Antrim

all properties

All properties

£676p/m

quarterly

annual

 3.1%

£810p/m

quarterly

 14.9%

 5.7%

Annual price growth

 9.5%

Causeway Coast & Glens

Derry City & Strabane

Quarterly price growth

 2.4%

all properties

£676p/m

annual

 11.2%

Antrim & Newtownabbey

Mid & East Antrim

quarterly

 2.6%

all properties

Derry City & Strabane

£706p/m

Antrim & Newtownabbey

annual

Ards & North Down

Mid Ulster

quarterly

 10.1%

 1.5%

Belfast

Fermanagh & Omagh

Fermanagh & Omagh

all properties

£606p/m

annual

10.5%

Belfast

Lisburn & Castlereagh

all properties

£930p/m

annual

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon

quarterly

-0.5%

quarterly

 10.4%

Newry, Mourne & Down

 2.4%

Ards & North Down all properties

£850p/m

Mid Ulster

annual

all properties

 9.4%

£599p/m

annual

 6.0%

quarterly

 1.1%

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon all properties

£653p/m

annual

 10.1%

quarterly

 2.6%

quarterly

 2.7%

Lisburn & Castlereagh Newry, Mourne & Down all properties

£706p/m

annual

 9.5%

quarterly

all properties

£827p/m

annual

 10.4%

quarterly

 2.3%

 2.4%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 16

Average days on market to reach let agreed Average days on market to reach ‘let agreed’, N. Ireland, 2016-2023 Houses

Apartments

Average days on market for houses to reach ‘let agreed’

50

40

38

30

days

Q3 2022

23

days

Q3 2023

25

days

Average days on market for apartments to reach ‘let agreed’

20

10

Pre-covid

39

Note: Based on listed property date until ‘let agreed’ within 6 months of listing

20 23

20 22

20 21

20 20

20 19

20 18

20 17

0

20 16

No. of days

Pre-covid

days

Q3 2022

25

days

Q3 2023

26

days

Note: Pre-covid avg. covers the period from 2016-2019

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 17

New listings on PropertyPal

Location of advertised rental properties

3,209

Derry City & Strabane

3%

Newry, Mourne & Down

Fermanagh & Omagh

3%

4%

newly listed properties available to rent in Q3 2023

Mid Ulster

5%

Mid & East Antrim

6%

2,087 houses

1,122 apartments

New inventory % change vs Q3 2022

vs Q3 2019





-8%

-38%

Total inventory % change

 +2%

vs Q3 2019



vs Q3 2022

-49%

Note: analysis based on traditional fixed term letting properties. Does not include short term lets, holiday lets, single room and other non fixed term lets.

Belfast

Antrim & Newtownabbey

43%

6%

Causeway Coast & Glens

7%

Lisburn & Castlereagh

7%

Ards & North Down

8%

Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon

9%

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 18

Rental market - Supply demand imbalance persists Number of new listings of properties for rent on PropertyPal Market Supply: down 8% on Q3 2022 levels by calendar month; 2015-2022 2020

2021

2022

2023

2019

350

120

300

100

250

80

200

Jan 2020 = 100

140

60

2020

2021

2022

2023

De c

No v

Oc t

Se p

Au g

Ju l

Ju n

M ay

Ap r

M ar

Fe b

De c

No v

Oc t

Se p

Au g

Ju l

0

Ju n

0

M ay

50

Ap r

20

M ar

100

Fe b

40

Ja n

150

Ja n

Jan 2020 = 100

2019

PropertyPal Rental Market Demand Index: Market Demand: down 13% on Q3 2022 levels Up 22% Year over Year

Note: Market demand based on enquiries to estate agents for property viewings and homebuyer services.

Jan 2020 = 100 compared every monthly time period across different years relative to that period. When a figure highlights 120, this implies a 20% increase relative to Jan 2020 and equally a respective figure of 80, implies a 20% decrease.

PropertyPal: Northern Ireland Housing Market Update Q3 2023 | 19

PropertyPal

Chief Operating Officer

Follow us online

Jordan Buchanan

 www.propertypal.com

 jordan.buchanan@propertypal.com

 @PropertyPal

 @jbuchanan0707



PropertyPal

 @propertypal

Methodology: The price and rental statistics are based on arithmetic averages of newly listed properties based on advertised asking price/rents in each calendar month. The price and rental indices produced are weighted to reflect the market share of each property type. The data has been cleansed to remove outliers and anomalies. This report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology.

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