PRA January-February 2015 Country Focus

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Country Focus

Indonesia: steady gait of an Asian tiger cub Indonesia, one of Asia’s tiger-cub economies, is relishing its “growing-up” pains from the political and economic reforms, for an outcome of steady growth in the years ahead, says Angelica Buan in this report.

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iting the 2014 UK Trade and Investments data, Indonesia, which is currently the world’s 16th largest economy, has the potential to move up to the fifth rank by 2030. With a sizeable population that is increasing by an estimated 4.5 million/year, as well as a growing middle class that is forecast to balloon to 141 million by 2020, it accounts for nearly half of Southeast Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP). The region’s largest economy is also witnessing the build-up of its domestic consumption, which accounts for more than half of the country’s GDP. Meanwhile, Amsterdam-based ING Bank’s International Trade Study for 2012-2017 said that Indonesia’s growth, expected at an average of 6.5% through 2017, may be slow yet steady. While this is comparatively lower than the average of other Asian countries, it is higher than the 3.7% global average. A history of tested competence Indonesia’s economic competence has endured critical milestones, including the pre and postAsian crises in 1997, whereby the country’s growth and currency plummeted, according to a report by the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO). Nevertheless, Indonesia’s manufacturing sector has buoyed up the economy, even though the latter barely rode out the impact of manufacturing production globalisation, and liberalisation and free trade agreements before the Asian crisis. In order to get the growth back on track, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), an international organisation comprising 34 countries, recommends that productivity growth must be complemented with structural reforms, including ironing out issues

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JANUARY / FEBRUARY 2015

in infrastructure, skilled labour shortages, and regulatory barriers to the country’s competence in the global market Such conditions are already being addressed by the government of newly appointed President Joko Widodo, through radical trade and policy reforms. Amongst the considered pressing points is easing of restrictions in Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) on certain industries, including the plastics industry. Weaning off imported plastics materials Pitted against other dominant Asian countries, Indonesia can easily outpace the other growing economies like Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Nonetheless, although not entirely a liability, the world’s fourth largest nation, with a population of 253.6 million, has yet to wean itself from being import-dependent. The local plastics industry, particularly the downstream sector, continues to rely on imported raw materials, according to the Global Business Guide. This practice is stunting the sector’s potential for growth on a global scale. Along with raw materials, dependence on imported machinery and equipment is also another hindrance to growth of the plastics sector, according to UNIDO, driven by Indonesia’s relatively low capital goods industry. Meanwhile, the Indonesian Downstream Plastics Producers Association (Aphindo) has said that increasing the competence of the downstream industry would entail making available locally a sufficient supply of raw materials. Thus, by doing this, it would lower costs of production as dependency on imported contents could be minimised. Imported raw material for the downstream industry is valued at US$8.5 billion/ year, according to Aphindo. Seeking tax facilities, as well as removing import duties on upstream products that could not be produced locally, would also promote cost efficient production, said Aphindo. Import duties from non-ASEAN countries are levied at 10%; and 5% for ASEAN member states. Staying competitive with imported machines There is a growing global trend of importing plastics processing machinery. Market research firm Freedonia forecasts the demand for imported plastics processing machinery to advance by


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