The Quill | Issue No. 7 | Fall 2021

FALL 2021 | ISSUE NO. 7

The Quill A T

P A L M

B E A C H

A T L A N T I C

Conversations & Commentary from The LeMieux Center for Public Policy U N I V E R S I T Y

The United States in a Post 9-11 World

By DR. ROBERT LLOYD

the international system look like in the coming decades? Second, how might the United States steer its course in these new and sometimes turbulent waters?

An earlier issue of The Quill (“Liberty & Felicity: Insights of George Washington into American Foreign Policy”) examined how America as a republic sought to preserve the independence of the United States and secure liberty for its citizens in international affairs, using what it also saw as universal democratic ideals.

Two centuries later, Washington’s ideals continued to inform American foreign policy but in situations he never envisioned. The 9-11 period, arguably lasting from 2001 to 2021, saw the United States deeply engaged militarily, diplomatically, and economically in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Iran. During

The United States faces a rapidly changing world. The pandemic has led to major health, economic, and political stresses. The shock waves from the rapid, violent, and chaotic American withdrawal from Afghanistan continue to reverberate in the international system. Iran continues to develop nuclear technology and ballistic missiles. A vibrant Hong Kong faces political repression by an increasingly authoritarian and powerful China. Russia and China challenge U.S. power in ways both small and large.

These and other developments raise two questions for the United States.

First, in assessing the many currents of international events and how they flow together, apart, and against, what will

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balancing alliances to preserve its liberty and interests in the international system.

This brings to mind George Washington’s admonitions against entangling alliances.

The United States, however, set sail on that alliance ship some time ago, as seen in the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In a world of multipolar competition and more powerful states, the U.S. will increasingly lean on alliances to secure its interests. This is especially true in forming alliances against rival states.

Second, ideological considerations continue to shape the international system. Within the United States there is decreasing confidence in liberal democracy and more challenges to many of its basic precepts. Internationally, the number of states that have moved away from a more liberal democratic orientation and to a more authoritarian stance has grown in recent years. At the same time, authoritarian countries are arguing that theirs is a viable alternative to economic development and a just society. A fascinating example of this occurred recently in Anchorage during an interchange of top Chinese and American diplomats. In response to U.S. charges of human rights violations, the Chinese pushed back forcefully, essentially stating that American ideals did not represent universal ideals, but only those of the U.S. government.

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this time the United States employed a variety of policies—with varying degrees of success—to combat militant Islamism.

Recent and related events mark a clear shift in American policy to a post 9-11 international system. The first, and most dramatic, is the rapid withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan.

Although U.S. security ties remain in the broader region, American enthusiasm for military intervention and democratization has ended, absent any new and damaging militant Islamist attack against the United States. The second is the establishment or strengthening of alliances with countries in East and South Asia to counter a more diplomatically and militarily assertive China. The recent announcement of a new alliance between the United Kingdom, United States, and Australia—that includes facilitating the acquisition of nuclear submarines by Australia—is the most recent manifestation of this pivot to East Asia.

These events both illustrate and overshadow the broader trends in the international system that have been at play in the past two decades. As a post 9-11 period begins, what replaces it? Political, ideological, military, and economic developments will be major currents of this new international system.

The first is political. Traditional geopolitics divides the world into more and less powerful states. Thus, the multipolar world that existed before World War II included several powerful states such as France, Britain, Japan, Germany, the Soviet Union, and the U.S. This, in turn, yielded to the bipolar Cold War era of U.S. and USSR superpower competition. The collapse of the Soviet Union then briefly led to a rare unipolar era of American dominance.

The unipolar era has now shifted back to the historically more common multipolar world. The United States must now adjust to a more unfamiliar era of forging and

The third factor affecting the international system is the growing availability, affordability, and lethality of military technology. Missile and drone 2

pandemic on economic growth as well technology in particular make possible as increased government spending the ability of state and non-state actors to policies to stabilize the economy. Recent inflict significant damage on adversaries. proposals by Congress to dramatically For example, Islamist groups such as and permanently Hamas in Lebanon increase federal can seriously Missile and drone technology spending will lead threaten Israel with in particular make possible the to even greater missile attacks. ability of state and non-state debt. This, in turn, North Korea actors to inflict significant damage places pressure on has been able to the U.S. dollar as develop nuclear on adversaries. the premier world weapons and reserve currency over concerns the debt a growing ballistic missile capability. cannot be repaid.

Other countries like Iran take note of The final factor is demographic. World this success. The proliferation of such population has increased enormously weapons increases insecurity and the in the past century. In recent decades, possibility of a local or regional conflict however, it has become evident that occurring and expanding. the world’s population is rapidly and New weapons change the calculus of decisively slowing down and, in some war. The development of hypersonic countries, declining. Population growth missiles, capable of extremely high speed in the developed and some of the and precision, means that American developing world has decelerated. Subaircraft carriers are at greater risk Saharan Africa is the notable exception as (as are fixed bases). China has been the population continues to grow rapidly. testing anti-satellite missiles that could These developments profoundly affect degrade American military surveillance the nature of the international system. capabilities. Finally, the use of surveillance and cyber warfare technology Nigeria, for example, will edge out the United States as the world’s third most complicate conventional understandings populous country by 2050. of war. Cyberattacks against countries These various currents suggest a and companies have become increasingly future world that is both familiar and common and damaging. new. The United States will continue The fourth factor is economic. to provide leadership to the world International economic growth of the that is dependent on it for setting and past two decades has been truly historic, maintaining international norms, lifting hundreds of millions of people in such as freedom of maritime trade and the developing world out of poverty and financial transactions. The willingness opening doors for human flourishing. At of Americans to countenance foreign the same time, economic globalization intervention—military or diplomatic—is may have peaked as countries become (for the foreseeable future) low. The increasingly wary of free trade amidst country will, however, need to adjust to populist calls for protectionism. This is a new international environment that is being accompanied by a penchant for greater state involvement in the economy, both less receptive to American ideas and better able to resist American pressure. directly challenging free market and free At the same time, internal divisions trade policies. among Americans will make forging a Domestically, the United States common foreign policy more difficult, federal debt has increased to historic even when there is an agreement on the highs. Much of this may be attributed need to project power to secure national to the negative impact of the COVID-19 3

interests. Demographic considerations, particularly rapidly slowing populations in the United States and many other countries in the world, will increase financial burdens to sustain an elderly population. In the case of the United States, this will directly impact defense expenditures as pressure grows for redirecting funds to social programs.

George Washington’s farewell address on securing liberty and felicity will continue to guide American foreign policy. The experiences of the 9-11 period reaffirmed that international events can be both surprising and confounding.

The United States has weathered more challenging international times in its history and will continue to do so in a post 9-11 future.

Dr. Robert Lloyd is the Executive Director of the LeMieux Center for Public Policy and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at Palm Breach Atlantic University, where he holds the Loreen Beisswenger Farish Chair for Political Thought.

The LeMieux Center for Public Policy at Palm Beach Atlantic University provides a space for reasoned, thoughtful and civil discourse on pressing public policy issues confronting Florida, the United States and the world.

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From the desk of Senator LeMieux I am pleased to welcome you to the latest edition of The Quill! This publication highlights the LeMieux Center’s mission to provide a space for reasoned, thoughtful and civil discourse on pressing public policy issues confronting Florida, the United States and the world. Every quarterly issue includes an article written by a scholar, policy maker, journalist or other thought leader with the knowledge, expertise and prudence to inform the reader on topics of broad public interest.

The previous issue of The Quill examined the Supreme Court in a Biden Administration. The current issue turns attention to the American foreign policy.

Dr. Robert Lloyd, a political scientist at Palm Beach Atlantic University — and an expert in the area of international relations — examines the nature of the recent international system, before turning attention to the new post-9-11 order.

The Quill and The Quill Podcast are but one facet of the Center’s interests and activities. In addition, the Center’s Distinguished Speaker Series hosts luminaries such as former Prime Minister Tony Blair of the United Kingdom, Associate Justice Clarence Thomas of the United States Supreme Court and Dr. George Will, a well-known political commentator with The Washington Post.

These speaking events, offered free of

charge to the community, are held on the beautiful campus of Palm Beach Atlantic University in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Finally, the Freidheim Fellows program seeks to inculcate young people with the principles, perspectives and training to empower them to lead a new generation.

Each year Palm Beach Atlantic students selected as Freidheim Fellows conduct research and present their findings on public policy questions. Their public presentations are certainly one of the highlights of the year for me.

The activities of the LeMieux Center would not be possible without the dedication and support of a number of individuals and organizations. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the president of Palm Beach Atlantic, Dr. Debra A. Schwinn, for the University’s strong support. It is a partnership that already has borne much fruit, and I firmly believe it will continue to make a difference in the life of this nation. Members of the LeMieux Center Board of Advisors deserve special commendation and thanks.

Their energy, generosity, wisdom and leadership are an amazing testament to the commitment of these leaders to the broader public good.

George S. LeMieux U.S. Senator & Founder of The LeMieux Center for Public Policy

www.lemieuxcenter.org

NONPROFIT ORG U.S. POSTAGE PAID WEST PALM BEACH FL PERMIT #1356 Last year, Senator LeMieux and Dr. Robert Lloyd launched The Quill Podcast — the official podcast of The LeMieux Center, in which they tackle conversations of consequence to the political, economic and social realms. Listen and follow today on Spotify and Apple Podcasts: go.pba.edu/quill-podcast

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Academic Advisors Dr. Robert Lloyd, Executive Director, LeMieux Center for Public Policy, Loreen Beisswenger Farish Chair for Political Thought, Palm Beach Atlantic University

Tom Rooney, Congressman & LeMieux Senior Fellow