The Brazilian Candidate Triangle PAULO DALLA NORA MACEDO
It is widely accepted in management theory that managers must consider certain constraints when making decisions. One of the most usual constraints is the project management triangle, used since 1950. The logic is based on three pillars:
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1. The quality of the work is conditioned by the budget, deadlines, and scope (characteristics) of the project. 2. The project manager can negotiate between constraints. 3. Changes in one constraint require changes in others to compensate, or quality will suffer.
PAULO DALLA NORA MACEDO It is the basis for “Good, fast, cheap: Choose two.” I propose to apply a similar methodology to the characteristics of this year’s Brazilian presidential election candidates: 1. Political capability is constrained by the economic agenda and its liberal commitment. 2. The electors can trade between constraints when choosing candidates. 3. Changing one constraint means changing the candidate. I am not advocating constraints between the concepts themselves. Still, to pick from the majority of the candidates, you have to trade between these constraints.
So the relevant question is: What will be crucial for Brazil after Bolsonaro? The answer depends on who you ask: The business and economic crowd will emphasize the economic agenda, while political fauna will emphasize the candidate’s political capabilities. That difference lies diagnosing the Gordian knot of today’s Brazil: economy or politics? The two go hand to hand and can feed into each other for good or bad; however, different groups see that the order matters in today’s Brazil.
Suppose the USA is a good proxy for Bolsonaro’s legacy. In that case, I tend to side with the political fauna: The latest US polls suggest that around 1/3 of Americans lack faith in the US democratic system. They are unsure that their votes will be counted in the future, do not think Biden was fairly elected, and believe violence against the government is justified. That is primarily due to Trump’s legacy, Bolsonaro’s model and inspiration.
It is undoubtedly excruciatingly challenging to prosper economically while alienating such a big part of society. The country has to heal this wound first. An optimal candidate would do both simultaneously: political reconciliation and economic planning aligned with future global challenges.