Epaper_24-02-10 (KHI)

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WITH ECONOMY AT A STANDSTILL, WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR AN ELECTED GOVT? In partnership with

Saturday, 10 February, 2024 I 29 Rajab, 1445

Rs 20.00 | Vol XIV No 223 I 8 Pages I Karachi Edition

PTI HAS EMERGED AS SINGLE LARGEST POLITICAL FORCE IN COUNTRY. PML-N IS TRYING TO PLAY SPOILSPORT. WHOEVER ASSUMES POWER HAS AN UNENVIABLE TASK AHEAD

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MARIAM UMAR FAROOQ & AHTASAM AHMAD

OR a while there, we weren’t even sure if elections would happen. But after weeks of muted campaigning and bluster that proved premature, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz finds itself in an unenviable position. Beaten, bloodied, stripped of its electoral symbol, and with its leader in jail the PTI has managed to sweep the elections despite all the odds. Even in the face of massive irregularities, it seems Imran Khan’s party has emerged the victor. But that hasn’t quieted the PML-N. Nawaz Sharif on Friday gave a victory speech despite his party being well-clear of winning. And while the noon supremo tried to strike a conciliatory tone, the weeks to come will show just what shape the next government takes. But whether Mian Nawaz returns for a historic fourth term or the PTI is able to cobble together a government with their growing lead, the challenge will be massive. So what is the task a new government will have to take on? The economy was a major issue in this election Perhaps more than ever before the economy was a hot topic in this election. The PML-N will perhaps be regretting their decision to lead the PDM coalition government for the last year-and-a-half of the last national assembly. At the time when he was ousted through a vote of no confidence, Imran Khan and his party were deeply unpopular due to increasing inflation. But the situation worsened in the PDM government

and Mian Shehbaz Sharif ended up taking the political brunt for the state of the economy and rising cost of living. As many analysts, including former Finance Minister Miftah Ismail, have reiterated multiple times that the voting trends have indicated that PML-N has borne the burden of poor governance, particularly in the economic sphere. In the lead up to the elections, the crackdown on PTI and attempts to disenfranchise the party has enabled them to garner massive public support. “The people of Pakistan have spoken, loudly and clearly; any attempt to manipulate their mandate will result in unsustainable chaos. The heat of the electoral process has passed; it is time to allow the country to heal. The political leadership – Mian Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari, Imran Khan, Maulana Fazal ur Rehman, and others – must rise above petty politics and work together to confront the immense challenges our country is facing; they need to recognise that history is not kind to selfish politicians,” said former Prime Minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. Additionally, the elections have come at a time when the country is at economic crossroads. The inflation levels have been hovering at an average rate of around 28%29% in the first seven months of the fiscal year of 2024. Similarly, economic growth has slumped, external debt has exceeded more than $100 billion. At the same time, the country’s reserves are less than $10 billion. “Elections determine public mandate. A government backed by strong public support can enact vital reforms for economic stability,” remarked Mustafa Pasha, chief investment officer at Lakson Investment Limited.

“Conversely, a government lacking public support tends to resort to populist measures like keeping the rupee artificially overvalued, decreasing petrol prices, leading to adverse economic consequences,” he added. Hence, transparent elections are crucial for countries like Pakistan to ensure the formation of governments capable of making tough economic decisions for sustainable growth. S&P Global’s analysts have echoed similar sentiments in their February 4 report stating that a government with popular support and the ability to work with key institutions will have a better chance of securing financing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Moreover, according to S&P, Pakistan’s credit rating could improve if the elections result in a government that can push for

tough reforms. Currently, Pakistan has CCC+ which signifies that the country is ‘vulnerable’ to a default. Regardless of who succeeds in assuming power now, one thing is certain, the road ahead is bumpy with economic challenges posing the biggest threat. The country is anticipating a transition from the current IMF stand-by agreement to a long-term Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Moreover, the high inflation, and consequently high-interest rates, are putting the patience of the masses to the test. The external sector also poses a significant challenge. With low foreign reserves and massive repayment obligations in the next 12 months, the government has been constrained from allocating funds for public spending.

Securing a new IMF deal The elected government is likely to take charge in March. This timeline coincides with the expiry of the $3 billion IMF bailout program which is expiring on March 30. This means that following elections, there is mounting pressure on the upcoming government to swiftly secure a new IMF deal to prevent a sovereign default. Pasha anticipates the formation of the new government by early to mid-March. “The expectation is that the government will likely require some form of coalition setup, hence it might take a few weeks to form the government, possibly by early or mid-March.” As per analysts at JS Global, “Any unfavourable developments such as Pakistan’s inability to secure a fresh IMF program owing to lagged reform-related measures, delayed support from friendly countries backed by changing geopolitical preferences etc, are expected to bring the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) foreign exchange reserves back to concerning levels, as witnessed in the first half of 2023. The same would likely lead to a negative impact on investor confidence in the country’s macroeconomic outlook.” Therefore, the upcoming government needs to be decisive and able to take tough decisions to secure a deal with the IMF. This would require further austerity measures which include phasing out untargeted subsidies, increasing direct and indirect taxes to increase revenues, reducing expenditures, letting rupee take its course, and lastly circular debt reforms.

Regional countries want peace, US questions conduct of Pakistan stability in Afghanistan: PM election, calls for ‘fraud’ probe

ISLAMABAD STAFF REPORT

Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul-Haq Kakar om Friday said that all countries of the region, including Russia and China, wanted peace, security and stability in Afghanistan. In an exclusive interview with TOLO news, he said that the recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan needed regional consensus. Until the countries of the region and the world recognized the current government of Afghanistan, Pakistan would not take a step forward in that regard, he added. “I personally believe that all the

countries in the region want the Afghan government to get recognized, although I cannot talk about the exact time, regional countries have understood this. I believe that the issue of recognition will be resolved as time passes.” The prime minister said the Durand Line was an internationally recognized border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. “The UN and 206 countries have approved this as an international border and what the Afghan people say about this is their internal discussion, in which I am not interested.” He said the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) had shelter in some

provinces of Afghanistan and that issue had caused insecurity in Pakistan. “When my people come to your soil, use it, train on it, and then come and harm my people, then I will definitely be telling you that my unpleasant brother is on your soil, no matter if by your permission or not, he must be expelled from your soil,” he added. “This is Pakistan’s stance and we have not accused the Afghan government of intentionally sheltering these people,” the prime minister said. He said that no nation would be permitted to utilize Pakistan’s airspace against Afghanistan. PM extends well wishes for ailing King Charles III Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar on Friday extended well wishes to King Charles III of Britain, joining hands with the people of the Commonwealth in praying for the monarch’s complete health and full recovery. “The Government and the people of Pakistan join the people of the Commonwealth in wishing His Majesty King Charles III complete health and full recovery,” the prime minister wrote on X. He said King Charles’ resilience and courage in confronting cancer was a source of strength to millions of concerned Commonwealth citizens around the globe.

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ISLAMABAD

STAFF REPORT

State Department of the United States of America (USA) has called for “full investigation” into the the claims of “interference or fraud” in the general elections held in Pakistan, reiterating its resolve to work with to work with the next Pakistani government, regardless of political party, to advance our shared interests. According to the statement by Mr Matthew Miller, Spokesperson of the State Department, millions of Pakistanis made their voices heard by voting in Pakistan’s elections on February 8, with record numbers of Pakistani women, members of religious and ethnic minority groups, and youth registered. “We commend Pakistani poll workers, civil society, journalists and election observers for their work to protect and uphold Pakistan’s democratic and electoral institutions. We now look forward to timely, complete results that reflect the will of the Pakistani people,” he said. Miller said that the US joins credible international and local election observers in their assessment that these elections included undue restrictions on freedoms of expression, association, and peace-

ful assembly. “We condemn electoral violence, restrictions on the exercise of human rights and fundamental freedoms, including attacks on media workers, and restrictions on access to the Internet and telecommunication services, and are concerned about allegations of interference in the electoral process. Claims of interference or fraud should be fully investigated,” he added. “The United States is prepared to work with the next Pakistani government, regardless of political party, to advance our shared interests. We look forward to bolstering

our partnership by supporting Pakistan’s economy through trade and investment. We will continue to support Pakistan strengthening its democratic institutions, engage through the U.S.-Pakistan Green Alliance Framework, broaden peopleto-people ties, and promote human rights including freedom of expression,” he added. “We are also committed to strengthening our security cooperation and creating an environment of safety and security that affords the Pakistani people the peace, democracy, and progress they deserve,” he concluded.

Nawaz vows to form ‘unity government’ after PML-N falls short of simple majority PTI vows to form governments in center, Punjab and KP

LAHORE

MIAN ABRAR

Former prime minister and chief of PML-N, Nawaz Sharif late Friday addressed his party workers and vowed to form unity government with allies and likeminded parties after PML-N fell short of simple majority in National Assembly. Sources privy to fast taking developments told Pakistan Today that Nawaz Sharif phoned PPPP President Asif Zardari and invited him to hold a meeting so as formation of a unity government could be discussed. He also invited Bilawal BhuttoZardari who would flew to Lahore later in the night for the crucial meeting as Asif Zardari is already in Islamabad to finalise the deal. Sources said that some other politicians may be joined in by once PML-N and PPP leadership finalise details of the future government. The source said that Shehbaz Sharif would also meet Maulana Fazlur Rehman and MQM chief Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui to help form a coalition government. “Things would be finalised over the weekend,” the source added, requesting not to named. Nawaz Sharif claims victory in address to party workers

In a candid address to his supporters outside his Model Town residence in Lahore, former prime minister and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supreme leader Nawaz Sharif conceded that his party, despite emerging as the ‘single-largest party’ in Thursday’s general elections, does not have the numbers to form a government on its own at the Centre.

“We respect the mandate of all parties and independent candidates,” Nawaz stated, acknowledging the reality of the election results. Urging unity in the face of a fragmented political landscape, he called upon his former coalition partners to come together and establish a ‘unity government’ for the benefit of Pakistan.

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ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Tehreek-eInsaf (PTI) top leader Barrister Gohar Ali Khan on Friday said that the PTI would form federal and provincial governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) being majority party in National and provincial assemblies of Punjab and KP. In a video statement, Gohar Ali Khan said that the people had coast votes in historic numbers and PTI was leading in 150 National Assembly constituencies. “There is an effort to engineer election results but our candidates have form 45 and we will move to relevant forums against election irregularities. I request the election commission to announce results of all candidates,” he said, adding that formation of governments would commence after all results are announced. Gohar Ali Khan said that the PTI is in a position to form government at the Cen-

tre and ruled out forging an alliance with Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). “We are not in contact with PPP or PML-N,” Barrister Gohar told media. He claimed that PTI is winning 150 National Assembly seats and would be able to achieve the required number of seats to form government at the Centre. “We are not intending to form a coalition government with PPP and PML-N, Barrister Gohar Ali Khan. “We will form the government at the Centre and Punjab,” he added. He said the PTI has a clear lead in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and will form government there as well. “PTI will remain in Parliament and will play its role.” He said independent candidates belong to PTI and asserted they would not join any party against party directives amid fears of horse trading. STAFF REPORT


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