In partnership with Sunday, 4 February, 2024 I 23 Rajab, 1445
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Rs 20.00 | Vol XIV No 217 I 8 Pages I Lahore Edition
CAN ANY MAJOR POLITICAL PARTY ADDRESS INFLATION? ELEVATED PRICE LEVELS RAISE CONCERNS
LATEST CPI DATA SHOWS A DECELERATION IN INFLATION RATE, YET PRICE LEVELS REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH
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PROFIT
MARIAM UMAR FAROOQ & AHTASAM AHMAD
N Thursday, February 1, 2024, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released the inflation figures for the month of January. The price levels saw a rise of 28.34% compared to the same period a year ago, providing a slight relief from December’s figure of 29.66%. Still, the country’s inflation rate continues to remain elevated and is currently the highest in Asia. This highlights a significant trend that every political party is promising to address once they assume office after the upcoming general elections, which are scheduled on February 8. The economic fundamentals and the ground reality, however, suggest that the claims might be mere lip service and sloganeering as the country’s economic future hangs by a thread awaiting the transition from the existing International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Stand-by Agreement (SBA), ending in March, to a long term Extended Fund Facility. The Inflation Conundrum Keeping track of price levels has proven to be a challenging task for policymakers in recent years. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has not met its medium-term inflation expectations since 2020. From 2020 to 2023, the SBP had anticipated a medium-term inflation rate of around 5-7%. Moving into 2024, the central bank
continues to base its decisions on similar expectations. According to the SBP’s Monetary Policy Statement released on January 29, the committee believes that the real interest rate will remain significantly positive over the next 12 months, as inflation is expected to decrease. Additionally, the SBP has maintained its medium-term inflation target of 5-7% aiming to achieve it by September 2025. However, the recent energy price hikes remain a significant threat. “Inflation expectations have shot up (the average inflation rate of the fiscal year 2024 is now at 25.3% against 24.1% earlier) following a petrol price hike (Rs 12/ per litre) and an expected gas tariff hike of 30% in February. This
also includes a higher fuel cost adjustment of Rs 4.66/kWh in February (+20bps impact to Feb CPI),” tweeted FIRM Ventures, a venture capital firm based in Karachi, Pakistan that invests in startups and public equities. Similar concerns are echoed by Amreen Soorani, head of research at JS Global Capital. “Going forward, energy-led inflation is a key risk to our fiscal year 2024 expected CPI average of ~25%. While the impact of the latest petrol price increase amounts to 10 basis points (not including secondround impact), every 20% gas price hike would have an incremental impact of 20 basis points (also due in February 2024)”, she writes in her recent analysis note published on February 2.
‘Third in five days’: PTI founder, wife sentenced to 7 years in prison in Iddat case ISLAMABAD
STAFF REPORT
IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva has recently emphasised that central banks worldwide should refrain from implementing premature rate cuts solely based on “market expectations” as it could lead to a resurgence of price pressures. In Pakistan, however, expectation of a rate cut around March or April remains high as analysts see inflation subsiding. “We maintain our call of the first interest rate cut since 2020 materialising in March/April 2024 where spot inflation is expected to clock in lower than current policy rate; providing policy markers added comfort to the 12-month forward inflation already being comfortably lower than current policy rate. Any sharp increase in global oil prices and/or sharp rupee depreciation against the dollar remain key risks to our CPI forecast,” remarked Soorani in her analysis. Political discourse The election campaigns of the political parties are currently in full swing, with manifestos being released and leaders making promises of a better future for citizens. Central to the discourse is the economic challenge that Pakistan has been grappling with for the past two years. During this period, the country has faced one of its worst episodes of inflation and a foreign exchange crisis. Naturally, many promises are being made regarding the revival of the economy, as it remains the primary concern for voters. However, the proposals being put forth are, to say the least, lacking in substance.
Third sentence over the last five days, the Islamabad’s Senior Civil Court on Saturday sentenced former premier Imran Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi to seven years in prison in marriage during the Iddat period case. The court fined the couple Rs0.5 million each was also imposed on the ex-premier and his wife. This is the third verdict against the PTI founder during the last five days as the former premier was earlier this week sentenced to 10 years imprisonment in the cypher case and 14-year imprisonment in the Toshakhana case. The verdict in the ‘un-Islamic’ marriage case was reserved by the court after a 14-hour-long hearing on Friday night. The hearing was conducted within the premises of Adiala jail in Rawalpindi, and was presided over by Islamabad’s Senior Civil Judge Qudratullah. The case, filed by Bushra Bibi’s first husband, Khawar Maneka, alleges that Bushra violated the Islamic practice of observing the mandatory pause, or Iddat, between two marriages. Furthermore, Maneka accused his ex-wife and Khan of having an adulterous relationship before their marriage. Earlier, the cross-examination of the four prosecution witnesses, including Maneka, Aun Chaudhry, Nikah Khawan Mufti Saeed, and Maneka’s employee Latif, was completed. The defence was led by Advocate Salman Akram Raja for Imran and Advocate Osman Riaz Gul for Bushra. Khan and Bushra submitted a joint statement of 342, answering 13 questions. In her statement, Bushra declared the divorce certificate of November 14, 2017, as fabricated, claiming she completed her mandatory iddat period from April to August 2017 after receiving a verbal triple talaq from Maneka in April 2017. The court rejected the defence’s request to produce additional witnesses. A plea of acquittal under Section 249-A and jurisdictional pleas under Section 179 were also rejected. During the hearing on February 1, Maneka made serious accusations against Imran, claiming the illicit relationship began during the 2014 sit-in and accusing the PTI founder of ruining his family. Imran challenged Maneka to take an oath on the Holy Quran.
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