CLAIMS, PROMISES AND ACCUSATIONS GALORE AS POLITICKING PICKS UP PACE In partnership with
Profit
Monday, 29 January, 2024 i 17 Rajab, 1445
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LAHORE/ISLAMABAD/KARACHI Staff RepoRt
S the general elections scheduled for February 8, 2024 draw nearer, the political parties, especially the major parties, have intensified election campaign with public meetings, corner meetings, rallies and door to door canvassing. Both the PML-N and the PPP organized large gatherings in the country on Sunday, but the PTI’s rallies were thwarted by police in different cities. With less than two weeks to go until the February 8 general elections, all the political parties applying different methods to drum up support for the their electoral victories. On the other hand, the Election Commission of Pakistan has been finalizing all-out arrangements for the conduct of the elections in a peaceful and transparent manner. Security arrangements have been completed with arrival for deployment of Army personnel at sensitive polling stations. Yesterday, the electoral watchdog carried out ‘successful’ trial run of the Election Management System (EMS) and initiated various other measures to ensure that the elections are held in free and fair manner.
Rs 15.00 | Vol XIV No 208 I 8 Pages I Islamabad Edition
Nawaz Sharif vows to contain inflation, unemployment ‘after coming to power’ SIALKOT
Staff RepoRt
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supremo and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif on Sunday promised to contain inflation and unemployment after coming to power. Addressing a massive public gathering at Jinnah Stadium Sialkot, the PML-N supremo said that his party would put the country back on the path to development and prosperity and remove the darkness forever if people voted it to power. The ex-prime minister said that his party would make an all-out effort to get the country out of crises. He asked the people to compare his tenure as a prime minster with the situation after his ouster. ‘’My government was toppled without any reason. We ourselves dragged our country to the quagmire. If the development and policy of our era had continued, the country’s economy would not have been in this condition today,” he added. Nawaz Sharif expressed empathy for the youth, stating that he loved them and was saddened that they were unemployed. He attributed this unemployment to the former PTI government and said if Nawaz Sharif’s gov-
ernment had continued, no youth would have been unemployed today. The PML-N supremo blasted the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government for plunging the country into an inflation and unemployment ditch after his ouster. “I loved the young generation and will take steps for their betterment,” he maintained. The former prime minister said that the PMLN government would provide laptops to youths because it was important to uplift the young generation to put Pakistan back on the prosperity track. “We will provide loans to our youths for a period of 20 years so that they can stand on their own feet and earn respectable employment. To make the youth skilled, providing them with better employment opportunities, attracting the younger generation to the field of information technology, providing them with laptops like the past are all part of our manifesto, which will be implemented,” he added. Nawaz Sharif said that with the support of the people, his party would make Pakistan prosperous, with employment in every house. Nawaz Sharif said that in 2017 roti (bread) was available at Rs4 and now it costs Rs. 25, petrol was available at Rs. 65 per liter which is now Rs 260 per litre, similarly sugar was available at Rs.50 per kg which now costs Rs.150 per kg.
Zardari says only political forces can ‘cure country’s ailments’ HUB
Constitutional reforms promised as PTI unveils election manifesto ISLAMABAD
Staff RepoRt
Staff RepoRt
Former President and PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari reiterated on Sunday that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) would give the people of Balochistan their due share and dignity, emphasizing that only “genuine political parties” could solve the problems faced by the country. Addressing an election rally in Hub district of Balochistan, Zardari said that PPP is a federal party, which deemed serving the people as worship, according to a statement issued by Media Cell Bilawal House. He said that all the problems faced by the country could be solved through democracy, adding that “What can be done with democracy, cannot be done in the war.” He said that despite being a victim of grave injustices, the PPP never spoke of taking up arms. “Yes, [we] talked about fighting on the streets, holding rallies, (and) fighting for democracy around the world, including Pakistan,” he added. He said Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto raised the flag of democracy and was elected prime minister twice. “I also followed in her (Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto’s) footsteps and elected my prime minister and became president myself,” he added. Zardari said that although there is no perfect democracy in the country even now, but it gradually
He said that the Pakistan of 2017 was better or is it better in 2024? “Everything has been made expensive; bills are too high to pay; prices of bread and petrol have been increased; how much oppression has been done to the nation. I can bear the atrocities and sufferings done to me, but I can never bear the injustice done to my people,” he added. The PML-N supremo said that the Sialkot-
Lahore Motorway was also built during the regime of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). “This motorway is not of the quality that I wanted to build. If people give us a chance to serve, I will do it better and start an excellent train project from Sialkot to Lahore so that the people of Sialkot can run their business in a better way and increase foreign exchange for the country,” he maintained. Nawaz Sharif said that Sialkot is a city of faithful people which has a unique identity not only in the country but the whole world. “My political comrades from Sialkot always supported me and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and stood by us in every hardship. “Among them are Khawaja Mohammad Asif, his late father Khawaja Mohammad Safdar, Rana Shamim Ahmed Khan, Vario family, the late Syed Iftikhar-ul-Hassan (Zahray Shah) and now his daughter Nosheen Iftikhar; Ali Zahid Hamid and his father are on the forefront. Khawaja Asif was my classmate and ties with the Khawaja family of Sialkot are over 5 decades old,” Nawaz Sharif said. PML-N Chief Organiser Maryam Nawaz also addressed the rally and said that the people of Sialkot had always honored the party for which they were grateful to them.
strengthens. Describing Balochistan’s progress in democracy, he said that those who take up arms need to be explained. He pointed out that during his tenure, the Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan Program was introduced. “I gave Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan, apologised to Balochistan, took as many steps as I could. I got people released from jails, and tried to be our friends and come back considering Pakistan as their country,” he added.
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The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf on Sunday launched its election manifesto with party chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan saying that they have been denied a level playing field. The party chairman also lamented the ‘harassment’ of the party’s candidates, calling “such tactics are against the law and the Constitution, and are akin to obstructing the people.” “If every day you obstruct the will of the people, what will and can we predict about February 8,” said Barrister Gohar. He requested the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to ensure equal rights for all. “The equal rights are not just for parties, but also for all candidates.” He added that the PTI is the “country’s largest political party” and yet is it is not being allowed to campaign for the upcoming polls. PTI’S MANIFESTO Revealing the party’s manifesto, Barrister Gohar said if PTI comes into power again, they will make constitutional amendments to change how the prime minister is elected. The party intends to have the country’s premier directly elected by the people and the term of the assemblies will be changed from five years to four years. Gohar also promised to form a truth and reconciliation commission to address the injustices faced by the common man. Reiterating the party’s slogan of bringing change, he added that a glo-
rious future and getting rid of the inadequacies of the past is the new manifesto of PTI. “Our manifesto is one nation, one law, equality for all as there cannot be two laws in one country.” He said the PTI insists on the rule of law, and whether criminal or civil, the laws of the country are “outdated”. Gohar further said the party will protect the fundamental rights of the people by bringing changes to criminal law and introducing a new system for investigations.
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Can a premature rate cut threaten the rupee’s stability?
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The rupee remains vulnerable to external and domestic risks PROFIT
MaRiaM UMaR faRooq & ahtaSaM ahMad
As the country draws closer to the date of its 16th general elections on February 8, 2024, all eyes are set on the political scene, with the public anxiously anticipating the outcome of these contentious polls. However, preceding this event is the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in 2024 scheduled for Monday, January 29, where the fate of the policy rate will be decided. The government is facing significant pressure from the private sector to reduce rates; however, according to experts, the necessary prerequisites for a rate cut have not yet been met. Profit has covered the rate outlook in its article: Has the policy rate peaked or will the SBP wait out an impending round of inflation? Adding to the predicament is the inflation outlook which is still uncertain given the external and domestic economic and political landscape. The dicey situation feeds into speculation around the rupee’s value. While over the last three months, the rupee has gradually appreciated, the downside risk pertaining to the currency remains high in the near term, as highlighted by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) first review under the Stand By Arrangement (SBA). THE FOREX MARKET Pakistan avoided a default by securing a last-minute staff-level agreement from the IMF for a SBA on June 30, 2023. At the
time, the country’s forex reserves plummeted to approximately $ 4.5 billion, covering not even a month’s worth of imports. However, the currency market had other plans, as even after the disbursement of the much needed funds, speculators ran rampant and the rupee lost significant value, breaching the Rs 300 mark. This trend was curbed in September 2023, as a nationwide crackdown on speculators led to a sharp correction in the market. This action was also necessitated by the fact that the IMF SBA required Pakistan to maintain the gap between the interbank and open market rates at a maximum of 1.25%. The idea behind this condition is simple: the IMF suspected that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in the past has been coercing the banks into keeping the dollar rate artificially low in the interbank market. The IMF was apprehensive about this intervention, as it encouraged imports and discouraged exports, worsening the dollar reserve situation. Therefore, post corrective measures, the rupee gained value significantly and the exchange rate outlook remained positive in the short run. The exporters also became cognizant of the trend and ran to the forward market to hedge their risk. By selling the forward contracts, exporters can lock in a specific exchange rate for their future export transactions. This allows them to protect themselves against potential upward movements in currency exchange rates. This trend continued through September and October of 2023, and slightly picked up in early January of 2024. However, since
then, the forward market has dried out as the short run expectation is that the rupee will stabilize around the current Rs 280 mark against the greenback. THE EXTERNAL SITUATION The SBP reserve situation has gradually improved, as post the signing of the SBA in July, multilateral and bilateral flows have been unlocked, easing the liquidity situation. The current reserves levels are around $ 8.3 billion after the disbursement of the latest IMF tranche. “Recently, the rupee has been stable with the current account remaining in the manageable range, even turning surplus in the last few months. Moreover, the latest
tranche received from the IMF helped boost reserves, resulting in the rupee remaining stable”, remarked Sana Tawfik, deputy head of research at Arif Habib Limited. According to the IMF’s latest review report, the open market premium has largely been eliminated, although interbank trading volumes have weakened significantly in recent months. Even though import payments, repatriation of dividends and profits have picked up, nonetheless, concerns about insufficient foreign exchange via banks amongst businesspeople and foreign investors persist. The reserve situation is a key driver in
the rupee stability. To maintain this equilibrium, banks have been instructed by the central bank to match the export receipts and import payments. Additionally, there are still restrictions on import of certain items, and repatriation of profits has not been fully restored. “While Pakistan has been able to achieve a nearly balanced current account since August 23, it is a result of administrative measures where banks have been asked to match their import related USD needs with export proceeds,” read a report by Akseer Research. SO WHAT WILL BECOME OF THE RUPEE? Analysts have cautioned against unfavourable developments which could reduce SBP’s foreign reserves. These include the inability to secure a fresh IMF program, and delayed support from friendly countries backed by changing geopolitical preferences. This would likely negatively impact investor confidence in the country’s macroeconomic outlook. In its outlook for 2024, JS Global labeled the Pakistani rupee as the poster child of risks cautioning that any adverse move on international commodities, IMF, or inflation will reflect in the value of the rupee. As per Tawfik,“Going forward, as demand picks up so does import, which we believe would still be in a managed way along with debt repayments. This is likely to put some pressure on the Pakistani rupee. We expect that the rupee might hover in the range of 310-315 per USD by June 2024. Any further inflows from multilateral creditors, however, will provide a breather.”
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