VTE June 2024

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY ENGINEER

Savic Motorcycles – Road Ready SAE-A AGM: The 76th AGM with a forward focus Truck Research: The future direction of trucks in Australia Work 4.0: Complex Competence Sets for tomorrow’s working world Aero & Auto: Auto strategies that will drive aerospace

June 2024 Issue 40 Representing mobility engineers since 1927 www.saea.com.au

VTE | Contents

Contents June 2024

SAE-A AGM 2024

8

Electric Passion

12

The Future of Trucks in Australia

14

A smart system living lab

21

Pushing for Australian manufacturing

25

Special Features 8

SAE-A AGM 2024 – The 76th Annual General Meeting

12

Electric Passion – Savic Motorcycles ready to hit the road

14

The Future of Trucks in Australia – The Way Forward

17

NVES – New Vehicle Efficiency Standards are law

18

Work 4.0 – The Identification of Complex Competence Sets

21

Smart Systems – The Living Lab

22

Aero & Auto – Automotive strategy drives aerospace

25

Bremar CEO Meeting – The push for Australian manufacturing

Society News 4

Notes from the Chair

5

SAE-A News

Technical Feature 26

Technical – Forecasting Near-term Uptake of Technologies to Support Transport Agency Decision-making

About the cover Savic Motorcyles has its first electric bike road ready

About the SAE-A SAE-A was founded in 1927 to address the need for further education for all facets surrounding Automotive Engineering, and now encompasses all mobility engineering industries in the Australasian region. The SAE-A is a non-profit organisation that works to serve the needs of its members and to promote the relevance of mobility related technologies to governments, industry and the community in general.

The editor, publisher, printer, the Society of Automotive Engineers – Australasia (SAE-A) and their employees, directors, servants, agents and associated or related entities (Publishing Entities) are not responsible for the accuracy or correctness of the text, pictures or other material comprising the contributions and advertisements contained in this publication or for the consequences of any use made of the products, services and other information referred to in this publication. The Publishing Entities expressly disclaim all liability of whatsoever nature for any consequences arising from the use or reliance on material contained in this publication whether caused to a reader of this publication or otherwise. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the Publishing Entities. The responsibility for the accuracy or correctness of information and other material is that of the individual contributors and the Publishing Entities do not accept responsibility for the accuracy or correctness of information or other material supplied by others. To the extent permissible by law, the Publishing Entities exclude all liability pursuant to the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth) or other applicable laws arising from statute or common law.

Readers should make their own inquiries prior to the use of, or reliance on, any information or other material contained in this publication, and where necessary seek professional advice. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part without the written permission of SAE-A is strictly prohibited.

www.saea.com.au

VTE | 3

Introduction | Secretary, CEO and Chairman Society of Automotive Engineers

VTE Published By: Society of Automotive Engineers - Australasia ABN:

95 004 248 604

Address: VACC House 650 Victoria Street, North Melbourne VIC 3051

Gary White

Phone: 0403 267 166 Email: info@sae-a.com.au Web: www.saea.com.au

President Society of Automotive Engineers – Australasia

Membership & Subscriptions Rose De Amicis Email: rose@sae-a.com.au Events Suzanne Nicol Email: events@sae-a.com.au

Board of Directors: Adrian Feeney (CEO) Gary White (President) Paul Nation (Treasurer) Greg Shoemark (Vice President) Angela Krepcik (Board Director) Mohammed Fard (Conference Director) Martha Oplopiadis (Director Membership) Noi Vera (Director Events & Training) Bernie Rolfe (FISITA & SAE-A Liaison) James Soo (Autonomous/EV) Michael Waghorne (Director Truck & Bus)

Magazine Production: Editor Mandy Parry-Jones Trading Terms Media Email: mandypj@optusnet.com.au Mobile: 0409 806 986 Design Brigid Fraser Email: fraseram@optusnet.com.au Mobile: 0413 009 122 Advertising Jill Johnson Jill Johnson Media Email: jj@jilljohnsonmedia.com.au Mobile: 0409 217 624

VTE Industry Partner: Excellerate Australia

Follow SAE – Australasia:

4 | June 2024

“Electrification Opportunities” Welcome to the June edition of VTE. The team at SAE-A have been quite busy this year, following through on delivering value to our members, with a calendar full of events for 2024, and working on some significant events for next year, in which I am sure you will want to be involved – there will be more news to come.

SAE-A has gone through some development as an Assessment Entity for the Victorian Professional Engineer Registration Scheme (PERS), as the majority of the State’s engineers complete their registration under PERS through the Business Licensing Authority (BLA). Engineers in need of an assessment report for PERS, please visit our website or give Rose a call for more information.

Our AGM and Networking events at the Auburn Hotel in late May was well attended. Our guest speaker, Dennis Savic of Savic Motocycles inspired us with his mature approach to getting his vision of an Australian designed and manufactured electric-powered motorcycle from concept through to production, on sale as the Savic Series-C sports motorcycle. Engaging with a receptive audience, Dennis made sure he answered any questions with a refreshing candour.

And this is a good segway into the vehicle electrification movement, one of my favourite topics.

Change is happening at the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) with Behyad Jafari calling an end to his role as CEO of the EVC and will be handing over the reins to Interim CEO Samantha Johnson. In his seven years as CEO, Behyad has raised the profile of the Council, building an industry-experienced team that effectively informs government policy strategy. The national EV strategy, vehicle fuel efficiency standards and future “powering Australia” growth centre programs each have benefitted from the EV Council thought leadership under his leadership. Behyad will be missed – but

there is no doubt the team at EVC will continue to contribute to the national conversations around sustainable transport and EVs. The uptake of lithium batteries in vehicles for non-EV uses, especially power supply in recreational vehicles (RVs) such as caravans, camper trailers and off-road vehicles, has created a new marketplace for engineers. In the past, lead-acid batteries were seldom used as a serious off-grid power supply in RVs. Lead-acid had such poor energy density, discharge and charge rates, and a severe weight penalty. Lithium batteries are more energy-dense, have much greater cycle life, are significantly lighter, and the cost of batteries has come down significantly. This has encouraged many RV owners to upgrade or spec their new vehicle with a lithium-powered off-grid capable power supply system.

But not all lithium batteries are the same. Lithium Iron Phosphate, or LFP battery chemistry is rapidly becoming the preferred battery for EV and RV applications. LFP is thermally more stable and tolerant of high ambient operating temperatures than other lithium chemistries previously offered (ie NCM and NCA) and has an extremely long cycle life (>2000 charge-discharge cycles, and potentially up to 5000 cycles). These characteristics make LFP ideal for the RV application. But these systems need to be engineered into each vehicle, and must satisfy Australian standards for electrical, mechanical and environmental performance. Our automotive engineers serving the RV industry must develop innovations in their designs to integrate, monitor, control and add features to suit customer requirements – remote monitoring, solar charging, DC supply and high-power AC inverters are only a few of the popular features. This is a growth industry that needs our automotive engineers working to develop today and tomorrow’s solutions.

SAE-A | News

Professor Harry Watson honoured by SAE International Prof Harry Watson was recently honoured with the SAE International Franz Pischinger Powertrain Innovation Award presented at the 2024 WCX Congress in Detroit together with Prof Elisa Toulson and Dr William Attard, who gained PhDs under his supervision.

Prof Toulson’s PhD was on the chemistry of turbulent jet ignition, which began development at Melbourne University, Mechanical Engineering, in 1974 and was patented in 1992.

Dr Attard commercialised the technology for Mahle and it was first used by Ferrari Formula One engines in 2014 achieving a thermal efficiency in excess of 50 percent, a world record. The ignition process has been adopted in several sports car engines such as those from Maserati and Honda.

Prof Pischinger founded the FEV automotive research company, which today has thousands of employees in three regions of the world, while he was a researcher and teacher at RWTH Aachen, Germany.

This plaque is presented annually by SAE International and sponsored by FEV. This was the first time it has been presented to a person outside the US or Japan.

The citation included the following: Prof Harry Watson’s vision and research at Melbourne University has made significant contributions to automotive engineering.

With a focus on the chemistry and physics of internal combustion engine processes developed in his Imperial College PhD, he produced mathematical models for HCCI engine processes.

www.saea.com.au

New intern for SAE-A RMIT student Akshaj Bhardwaj has joined the SAE-A as an intern to research national and global conferences and identify ones that focus on electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles (EV/AV) including sustainability and accessibility.

He will also explore opportunities for SAE-A to extend its reach through articles and corporate contacts.

This founded development of further computer models for engine efficiency and emissions including, in 2009, the world’s fastest engine optimizer simulation code suggesting the ultimate performance of optimized internal combustion engines by using very lean (fuel weak) mixtures ignited

by TJI. He also built class leading natural gas and hydrogen engines. His applied research included component design to avoid wear by ideal lubrication and hence long life, and he identified the pollution benefits from changing car driving patterns.

His methods have been used by several EPAs to develop test driving cycles more representative of a cross section of drivers’ experience. He has published more than 120 SAE International papers.

His consultancies ranged from Formula One and Le Mans racing car engines and F1 body design to the benefits from more stringent Australian car Design Rule CO2 standards.

He was Deputy-head or Head of Mechanical Engineering between 1984 and 2000 and president or vice-president for SAE-Australasia for 14 years.

In general his tasks are associated with extending the SAE-A’s reach to corporate bodies such as technology companies, industry associations, government and the education system in order to forge stronger relationships.

He will also have a focus on EV and AV vehicle promotion, and review the SAE-A website and provide ideas to enhance the image of the SAE-A. Mr Bhardwaj is studying at RMIT.

VTE | 5

News | SAE-A

Volunteer for Formula SAE-A The Society of Automotive Engineers Australasia (SAE-A) is seeking enthusiastic volunteers to lend their support to this year’s Formula SAE-A competition.

The event will run from 5-8 December, 2024 at Calder Park Raceway just 30 minutes from Melbourne’s CBD. We are looking for volunteers, specifically for the static and dynamic events, who have a good level of technical, industry and business expertise.

Formula SAE-A volunteers attract a variety of people from all types of professions such as industry, government and business and, of course, motorsport.

Being a volunteer is rewarding and offers an excellent opportunity to witness more than 800 students at their best. The students value feedback and really appreciate the encouragement and teachings volunteers can provide.

Please consider offering your time and feel free to ask your work colleagues, family or friends who may have an interest in this event.

Around July this year there will be an online registration form to complete but if you would like to discuss volunteering, please don’t hesitate to reach out to Angela Krepcik on 0408 218 158 or email: akrepcik2@gmail.com

Unlocking the Secrets of Innovation: A Visit to the Australian Synchrotron In the heart of Clayton, Victoria, lies a beacon of scientific advancement — the Australian Synchrotron.

Recently, members of the Society of Automotive Engineers Australasia (SAE-A) were treated to an exclusive tour of this cutting-edge facility, providing a glimpse into the forefront of engineering and technology.

At the core of the Australian Synchrotron’s capabilities are its powerful beams of light, harnessed to examine the molecular and atomic details of a diverse array of materials. This isn’t just about peering into the microcosm; it’s about unlocking solutions to real-world challenges across a multitude of sectors.

The Synchrotron’s advanced techniques find application in a myriad of fields with engineers, scientists, and researchers alike converging to push the boundaries of what’s possible.

During our visit, we were astounded by the breadth of projects underway. Imagine being able to explore the intricate 3D imaging of the human body or uncovering hidden layers beneath centuries-old artworks to reveal the secrets of the past. The Synchrotron’s capabilities are not just revolutionary, they’re transformative.

One of the most intriguing aspects of our tour was learning about the opportunities for collaboration and innovation. The Synchrotron welcomes projects from diverse

Introduction to Crash Investigation and Reconstruction

6 | June 2024

For engineers, in particular, the Synchrotron represents a playground of possibilities.

Whether it’s optimizing manufacturing processes, developing next-generation materials, or enhancing the efficiency of energy systems, the tools and expertise available are unparalleled.

For engineers and scientists alike, the Australian Synchrotron beckons, offering a portal to the unknown and the opportunity to turn dreams into reality. It’s not just a facility, it’s a testament to the power of human ingenuity and the endless possibilities that lie ahead.

This is a face-to-face course in Melbourne from 22 July to 26 July 2024 and not available online.

Presented by Delta-V experts, participants will learn how to effectively and efficiently examine, record and interpret the results of a collision and provide an opinion as to speed, direction of travel, vehicle and person movements and the probable contributions of the human, vehicle and environment factors associated with the collision.

A full description of the course is online at www.saea.com.au Early bird registration until 30 June 2024 – member $1365, non-member $1715, student $945. From 1 July 2024 member $1950, non-member $2450, student $1350.

For more information: www.saea.com.au/events

industries, offering its state-of-the-art facilities to catalyse breakthroughs in everything from biotechnology to advanced materials development.

New Members

The SAE-A would like to welcome the following Professional Members and Corporate Delegate Members: Professional Members Sherwin Beh David Clarke Matthew McCart Ashan Pieries Manojkumar Vanangamudi Richard Walker

Corporate Delegate Members Mark Barbaro Mark Ceveri Stuart Charity Tim Graham Brett Harris Chris Macmeikan David McLean

Joel Meston John Milfull Chris Powell Paul Sbrissa Jim Srinivas Calum Sutherland Leon Wensley Peter Whitlock

SAE-A | News

Applied EV selects CISSOID’s SiC Inverter Control Module Applied EV has joined with CISSOID to drive its generation of autonomous vehicle E Motors.

Applied EV has selected CISSOID’s new CXTICM3SA series of Silicon Carbide Inverter Control Modules (ICMs) to drive its latest generation of autonomous vehicle E-motors.

our Digital Backbone, allowing for a faster development cycle, giving our customer the safest vehicle in the shortest time possible,” Applied EV’s CEO, Julian Broadbent, said

Dedicated to the E-mobility market, CISSOID’s software-powered SiC ICMs are augmented with onboard programmable hardware, accelerating the response time to critical events, off-loading the processor cores and enhancing functional safety.

CISSOID’s CEO, Dave Hutton said that he was excited to embark on this collaborative journey with Applied EV to drive innovation in e-mobility.

The ICM is integrated into Applied EV’s Digital Backbone, a centralised control system combining state-of-the-art software and hardware, setting a new benchmark for safety rated vehicles.

“Both Applied EV and CISSOID recognise functional safety is critical in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicles. The partnership integrates CISSOID’s ICMs into

“By combining our expertise in electric motor design with Applied EV’s proficiency in software and vehicle integration, the aim is to deliver a game-changing electric motor drive platform for the future of mobility together,” he said.

The collaboration underscores the shared commitment to driving positive change in the automotive industry and contributing to a more sustainable future for transportation globally.

Federal funding for apprentices in EV The Federal Government announced that automotive apprentices are now eligible for funding under the New Energy Apprenticeships Program.

The New Energy Apprenticeships Program will offer payments of up to $10,000 for automotive apprentices that complete work related to clean energy, which includes service and repair of electric vehicles.

Extending the scope of the New Energy Apprenticeships Program aligns with the requirements of new automotive apprentices, who need to be trained on the latest EV and Hybrids to be future ready, but are also able to ensure the safety and reliability of the current ICE fleet.

The program also assists automotive workshops to invest in workshop equipment to support the service and repair of EVs and opens up a new opportunity to attract and recruit apprentices to their business.

2024 National F1 and SUBS in schools Australian and New Zealand students, teachers, judges and industry visitors came together for the 2024 National F1 and SUBS in Schools finals at St Peter’s College in Adelaide.

The event showcased a dynamic display of young talent and highlighted the opportunities available.

The 350 students attended with 113 teachers at their side.

F1 in Schools Professional Class National Champions were Team Lunar from Brighton Grammar in Victoria. Second place went to ACRUX Racing from Modbury High School in South Australia who won Best Manufactured Car, Best Engineered and Outstanding Industry Collaboration. Trinity Grammar School in Victoria took out third with the Best Team Trade Display.

F1 in Schools Development Class National Champions were Blue Mountains Grammar School in NSW, with team Lumin from Trinity Grammar second and Zenith from Riverside High School in Tasmania third. www.saea.com.au

SUBS in Schools Submarine Class National Champions were Team Oceanus Systems from St Philip’s Christina College New South Wales. Second went to Orca from Wagga Wagga Christian College in New South Wales, third to Nautilus from The Heights School in South Australia.

SUBS in Schools Professional Class ROV National Champions were Team Trident from Brighton Secondary School in South Australia, second was Sea Tech Savants from Hampton

High School in Western Australia and third Nautilunar from Parramatta Marist High School in New South Wales.

SUBS in Schools Development Class ROV National Champions was Team Trident from Wagga Wagga Christian College, second was Octobots from Carine Senior High School in Western Australia and third Dolphins from Newton Moore Senior High School in Western Australia.

VTE | 7

Feature | SAE-A AGM 2024

76th Annual General Meeting for SAE-A Gary White, President of the SAE-A opened the 76th Annual General Meeting on 30 May 2024, this was his first in his role as president.

On a very wet night in Melbourne the SAE-A held its AGM in Auburn with an audience both at the venue and also online. After the formalities of voting on the minutes of the previous AGM, Mr White reflected on his entry into engineering and remarked on his time spent in his early years with long time SAE-A member and wellrespected engineer Harry Watson who was present.

He then confirmed the work being done in the background such as VTE magazine, which has evolved and is now in the process of morphing into a journal with more technical articles, and coming in line with common practices such as a reliance more on softcopy issues than hardcopy magazines before Mr White moved on to speak to the PERS assessment.

“The news is, as you know, we were approved as an assessor for the PERS or Professional Engineering Registration Scheme, which means that we can help our engineers get onto the registration list for Victoria and that has reciprocal rights in other states as well,” he confirmed. “It’s quite an important thing for our professional engineers that are working in engineering generally.”

Mr White also touched on the SAE-A’s return to an office environment after COVID with an office area in the new VACC building in North Melbourne.

8 | June 2024

Gary White “It’s got excellent meeting rooms and we’ve been having productive times brainstorming using their facilities. It’s a really good location right near the station. The VACC has been a very good landlord for us, and we hope that continues and we may actually expand our presence there in the coming year,” Mr White said.

SAE-A AGM 2024 | Feature

From there the focus turned to Formula SAE-A and its return to Calder Park, which was initially unexpected but turned out to be embraced wholeheartedly by the teams and organisers.

“We’re prioritising Formula SAE-A. It really is a way for mechanical engineering and electrical and business students to really get a handle on what goes on in real automotive engineering and engineering in general,” Mr White said. “Autonomous vehicles or automated vehicles are part of this. I think it’s going to be a big event this year.”

Other events are also in the planning stages such as a possible technical conference centring on transport mobility for accessibility, and re-introducing the SAE-A Excellence Awards.

Past president and current honorary CEO Adrian Feeney was then applauded for his great work with the SAE-A with a mention of his impending retirement from his current role.

“Adrian will help us work out a path forward and deciding on a replacement. But Adrian won’t leave completely,” Mr White said. “He’s still going to be the standout member that he has been for the SAE-A – coordinating, guiding and leading.

“And as I noted just last year when he was conferred the lifetime membership Greg Shoemark said, ‘few have contributed more conspicuously than you’. And I think www.saea.com.au

that’s true. To many, Adrian is synonymous with SAE-A Australia and the work he’s done to revive it and keep it alive.”

The SAE-A is back, and it has been restored; with a high level of competition in FSAE, the APAC21 conference and the appointment as an assessing authority for PERS – that has all happened under the leadership of Mr Feeney and the SAE-A owes a great debt to his perseverance.

Treasurer’s Report Mr White then handed over to Paul Nation, the treasurer for the SAE-A. “For those that don’t know me, my name’s Paul Nation. I am a regular army officer. So, some people would look at me and go, what does a regular army officer have to do with automotive engineering in Australia? I’m a reliability engineer within the army,” Mr Nation said by way of an informal introduction.

“I work at Victoria Barracks Melbourne, and the companies that I deal with, are the predominant companies within the automotive engineering domain at the moment in Australia.”

Mr Nation then went on to describe the financial situation for the SAE-A referring to the 2021, 2022 and 2023 years in terms of a Statement of Profit and Loss summarising the revenue and expenses for the reporting period.

“For 2023, we had a total revenue of $376,926, total VTE | 9

Feature | SAE-A AGM 2024

“And finally, the Statement of Cash Flow. So, this particular table just tracks all the money flowing in and out of the organisation.

“Just summarising the three slides very quickly, the profit and loss statement demonstrates that the society is operating and delivering a net profit in 2023.

“The Statements of Financial Position and Cash Flow demonstrate the liquidity of the society, that is the ease at which assets can be readily converted into cash. Important to note, the largest asset class is in fact cash within the organisation.

“The Society is solvent, referring to its ability to meet longerterm debts and other financial obligations, and overall, there are no significant financial concerns, the financial health of the organisation is sound.”

The constitution Part of this year’s AGM was a vote on a change to the SAE-A’s constitution regarding a specific clause which says a director appointed under clause 31.1 will hold office until the next general meeting of the company when the director may be re-elected.

Paul Nation expenses of $323,338, which left us with a net profit for 2023 of $53,588. Next, we have the financial position, sometimes referred to as the balance sheet. The purpose is to summarise all the assets and liabilities within the organisation, and in very simple terms, it’s what the organisation owns against what the organisation owes,” Mr Nation said.

“Total assets sum to $455,962431,281. Total liabilities, $98,423, which leaves us with net assets of $332,859. Adding the 2022 retained earnings from that year and the current 2023 cash surplus from our profit and loss statement gives us a total accumulated funds value of ($72,174).

10 | June 2024

The SAE-A wanted to change it to a director appointed under that clause will hold office until the next general meeting of the company when the director may stand for election in their own right and if elected, serve two full terms from that meeting as per section 32.1.

A director will be eligible for election for only two consecutive three-year terms of office. After two consecutive terms, the retiring director will not be eligible for re-election until the second annual general meeting following their retirement.

Basically, what was discovered was that if there was a casual retirement and therefore a casual replacement, that replacement could only serve out the remaining term of that retirement, a replacement could only stay on the board for four years, which was never intended. The proposed change allows that board member to serve out the remaining 12 months of that person’s resignation plus a full six years.

The amendment was voted upon and agreed unanimously.

SAE-A AGM 2024 | Feature

New Directors Due to a retirement from the SAE-A Board and one resignation two places had to be filled – Mr Richard Taube resigned due to a change of workplace and Professor Mohammed Fard reached the end of his term but was up for renomination.

Professor Fard renominated and was warmly welcomed back to the board while a new board member was elected to replace Mr Taube – Angela Krepcik.

Ms Krepcik is well-known in the industry and was a past CEO of SAE-A, and the person who introduced Formula SAE-A to Australia. After working with the SAE-A, Ms Krepcik worked as CEO of similar industry associations and has spent a significant time in government working with industry and manufacturing. In her most recent role in government, she was building an investment pipeline, helping businesses grow.

The board now consists of: Adrian Feeney (CEO), Gary White (President), Paul Nation (Treasurer), Greg Shoemark (Vice President), Angela Krepcik (Board Director), Mohammed Fard (Conference Director), Martha Oplopiadis (Director Membership), Noi Vera (Director Events & Training), Bernie Rolfe (FISITA & SAE-A Liaison), James Soo (Autonomous/EV), Michael Waghorne (Director Truck & Bus).

www.saea.com.au

VTE | 11

Feature | Electric Passion

Electric Passion Dennis Savic has taken his passion to the next level with the Savic electric motorcycle

Several years ago we featured Dennis Savic in VTE magazine early on when he was in the throes of turning his dream into a reality. Now the first Savic electric motorcycle is about the hit the road as a viable alternative to the internal combustion engine motorcycle.

Mr Savic was a speaker at the SAE-A AGM, he spoke firstly of his dream to one day produce his own high performance electric motorcycle.

“I’ll delve into the journey of Savic Motorcycles,” he began but before that he outlined his own family background, he was born to immigrant parents who had come from Bosnia determined to make a good life in Australia. That drove him to work really hard, as they had.

After moving to Perth in WA Mr Savic recalls going over a bridge into Perth and looking out the car window and seeing what he considered was a very ugly car. That inspired him to work in the automotive industry.

“Time went on and I liked to ride my pushy around when I was at school,” he said. “And when I was about 14, I thought it would be pretty good if there was a motor in this bike. It would be a lot cooler.

“But, again, immigrant parents, we didn’t have a lot of money growing up, so there was no way my parents were going to spend 600 bucks on a motorbike for me … So, I got the pencil case out, came up with what parts I needed to buy, broke the piggy bank up and worked out, right, I can actually build this myself. I was in a motor work class at school.

“I finished all my work and I brought all this to the teacher and I said, look, how good is this? Will you help me build it? And the teacher said, absolutely not.”

He recalls that the teacher, though disappointing him initially suggested that he need to be an engineer.

“At that point, I was basically failing year 10 and to get into engineering – you needed reasonable marks. So, I just worked pretty hard, scraped into UWA (University of Western Australia) and that’s where I did my degree. And as soon as I finished my degree, I started building bikes.

As a university student at the University of WA he became involved with Formula SAE-A and says that it was the best educational experiences a student can get.

“I built my first bike in 2015 and I’ve been bashing my head against the wall ever since.

Now with a team of people collectively bashing their heads against the wall.”

By 2018 Mr Savic had raised his first small amount of capital from friends and family and built his first concept bike launching publicly as Savic Motorcycles in November that year.

However, the ride wasn’t smooth in more ways than one, the concept bike was expensive to build, and the performance wasn’t adequate, neither was the reliability and quality. It proved to him that he couldn’t build an electric bike using existing components it had to be a ground-up design.

Dennis Savic 12 | June 2024

“Right, we’re going to have to do this ourselves. And that’s when we started designing motors, designing battery packs, and, I mean, fast-forward a few iterations and quite a

Electric Passion | Feature

lot of pain,” he said. “We have a bike where pretty much 95% of it is done by us. Software, hardware, rims, axles, nuts.

Instrument cluster, over-the-air updates, backend cloud infrastructure.

“We’ve got a lot of passion in the team. And we definitely wouldn’t be where we are today without all those people. And where we are today is pretty much on the brink of commercial production.”

The first customer bike has been built, just about ready to go out the door, after spending around $5 million of investor equity to get there.

There are several things that are equally hard in this business Mr Savic explained, engineering the product is hard, the greatest engineering challenge has been EMC, electromagnetic compatibility.

But then the supply chain to go along with it also presents a difficulty, because the supply chain actually doesn’t really exist for this type of motorbike. Mr Savic had to go to suppliers, take what they’ve had off the shelf, redevelop it, and ask for a custom specification.

Around the beginning of this year Savic Motorcycles took its bike to Lang Lang to complete durability testing, this is the first time any motorbike as ever been testing at that site.

The bike passed with flying colours because as Mr Savic said, it is every engineer’s nightmare if it doesn’t.

“You know, building these bikes is so cool. And I’d tell someone ... And they’d say to me, why are you doing that? Do you know how much oil’s in the ground? Are you sure you’re spending your money wisely and investing everything you’ve got? This is back in 2015, 2016. And I thought, oh, that’s a bit narrow-minded,” Mr Savic said.

In 2017 Mr Savic moved to Melbourne and he says that was instrumental in fuelling his desire to build this motorcycle because his dream was shared by others.

“I thought, hmm, these are my people. I’m in the right spot.

And one of the things that I reasoned was that the thing that kind of brings us all together in this room and in other parts of the industry is a common interest, right? And it might be bikes, it might be cars, but in general, automotive, manufacturing, design, we all kind of fit together,” he said. www.saea.com.au

VTE | 13

Feature | Truck Research

The Future of Trucking in Australia A report by Isuzu on the way forward for the industry In 2020 Isuzu Australia published its inaugural Future of Trucking Report (FoT) now the company has released its latest issue The Way Forward.

The main goal of this ongoing research project is to arm and assist strategic thinking and decision making within the industry. Key insights from the research were separated into the following sections: Business Sentiment, Procurement, Safety & Technology, Electric Vehicles and Truck Maintenance.

The report presents survey data collected from more than 1300 Australian stakeholders across the trucking and road transport sector.

This is one of very few reports centred on Australia, which is a very different beast to the European truck landscape.

Respondents were from a broad mix of industries and fleet sizes, including truck manufacturing, the research was conducted in mid-2023.

We will limit the focus of this article on outcomes in Safety & Technology, and Electric Vehicles, but there will be a link at the base of this article so that the whole report can be downloaded.

Safety & Technology Changes to powertrain technology and the push for decarbonisation are affecting the greatest single change to the industry in its history. The imminent proliferation of battery electric and related reduced emission truck technology is poised to disrupt traditional modes of operation.

In tandem with this there are substantial leaps forward in the safety space.

Safety features continue to be a headline purchase consideration for many business types. This is fuelled by further regulatory compliance obligations such as Chain of Responsibility (CoR).

Increasing safety was the number one reason for adopting new truck technology. In the next 1 – 5 years, Lane Keep Assist, Blind Spot Monitoring and Electronic Stability Control are key safety technologies businesses are looking to adopt.

14 | June 2024

Active safety features, which are classified as pre-collision safety systems continue to be in high demand, with some being ‘nonnegotiable’ for larger transport fleets with multiple trucks.

Features such as Adaptive Cruise Control (44 percent), Autonomous Emergency Braking (43 percent), Blind Spot Monitoring (41 percent) and Electronic Stability Control (41 percent) are respectively the most essential active features currently serving truck operators in Australia.

Alongside these key systems, the larger fleet subgroup also nominated Lane Departure Warning (51 percent) as a feature they presently employ.

A combination of sensor based, driver aid technologies, including Lane Keep Assist, Blind Spot Monitoring and Electronic Stability Control (ESC) topped the list (52 percent) for new safety technology that businesses were considering in the coming 1–5 years.

ESC in particular will be a major focus for operators as the feature has been progressively mandated under the Australian Design Rules.

The top–three other technologies currently used by fleets are forward and rear facing cameras (51 percent), driver communication and messaging systems (45 percent) as well as Telematics systems (40 percent). These three features continue to be applied across all business types.

Data–backed technology including telematics (55 percent) and fleet management systems (54 percent) topped the list of tech systems Australian businesses are considering strongly over the coming five years.

These tech priorities have remained consistently in demand since the last FoT report in 2020. The government businesses subgroup shows heightened interest in Telematics for truck performance and predictive maintenance (59 percent).

Overall interest in technologies features point to businesses wanting to have more visibility over their fleet and efficient, proactive management.

With the average age of Australia’s truck parc hovering at around the 13-year mark, the ongoing challenge for transport and

Truck Research | Feature

transport-reliant businesses will be the requirement to update and maintain the veracity of truck safety and new technology features.

Insights into vehicle productivity, efficiency and equipment operating parameters are critical to effective and profitable business operations.

Data shows that many fleet businesses have a form of telematics technology installed (40 percent), with vehicle tracking and truck– specific navigation being the most popular features.

This technology is continuing to be harnessed to varying levels, but the data also indicates an appetite to adopt more proactive telematics features to improve safety and vehicle uptime – noted benefits

include improved driver safety (57 percent), monitoring driver behaviour (54 percent) and increasing efficiency (53 percent).

Interestingly, the perceived benefits of telematics were found to be application and industry specific with retail operators looking for efficiency dividends, while more focussed transport operations are seeking fuel efficiency gains.

The scope of connected transport is of course huge and the exchange of data between vehicles and road infrastructure, otherwise known as the ‘connected city,’ is the longer game at play for the majority of the industry.

“This report indicates that alongside a reasonably strong level of adoption of data-driven safety tech and software such

as telematics or like-minded ‘connected’ systems there also remains a continued strong interest in systems that help support fleet business operations and bolster safety outcomes,” Matt Sakhaie, Head of Produce for Isuzu Australia explained.

“As a modern society we also still have some significant connected milestones to achieve – matching the power and creativity of data-driven software to the static highway infrastructure that ultimately empowers it in a more significant, genuinely ‘connected’ way.

“When it comes to the future of truck safety, this notion of a truly connected vehicle is nonetheless the next horizon in the Australian road transport space.

“When you consider how quickly we’ve arrived at heightened sensor and camera-based systems, one can only imagine the state of the truck safety space over the coming 5–10 years.”

Electric Vehicles This report canvassed operator appetite for a zero tailpipe emissions (zero emissions) future as well as perceptions, positive or otherwise, around the use of commercial electric vehicles (EV) in the Australian market.

The latest findings provide solid insight into the thought process of business operators when it comes to this emerging technology within the Australian market.

This technology continues to evolve however, www.saea.com.au

VTE | 15

Feature | Truck Research

as the findings indicate, the product deployed must be directly relevant to the operating needs, infrastructure, and regulations for customers in their given markets.

In Australia 91 percent of businesses surveyed said they were considering adopting some form of zero–emission strategy for their vehicle fleet. Of those considering, 10 percent were actively considering now, 40 percent indicated this would commence within two years and a further 41 percent noted this would be within 10 years.

The absence to date of any clear Australian legislative or regulatory incentives or broad national charging infrastructure investment, could explain the collective lack of urgency in this space.

In terms of industries looking towards an electric vehicle future, the transport, postal and warehousing sector had the highest rate of implied future adoption at 41 percent.

The public administration and safety sector had the lowest adoption at 15 percent.

A key driver of the adoption of electric vehicles are current perceptions relating to the operation of electric trucks here in Australia. Opinion continues to be mixed, with approximately half of businesses somewhat or strongly agreeing that electric trucks are suitable for Australian conditions (55 percent), are reliable (55 percent) and have a strong residual value (51 percent).

16 | June 2024

Additionally, there are perceived concerns about electric truck charging with 64 percent of respondents somewhat or strongly agreeing that charging an electric truck takes too long, while only 50 percent agreed that there was good electric vehicle charging infrastructure where trucks operate.

By sector this pessimism around electric truck performance is more prevalent from the transport, postal and warehousing industry, those in manufacturing as well as the utilities and waste services sector – perhaps not surprisingly, these are sectors that in numerous instances have been early adopters of electric trucks and have experienced the early adopter challenges of implementing this new technology.

Despite these mixed opinions, there is growing positive sentiment towards some elements. Perceptions of charging time, suitability for Australian conditions and charging infrastructure have all improved since the last report.

Responses also suggest that there remains a knowledge gap when it comes to the viable commercial use of electric trucks.

Across all key perceptions, approximately 25

to 30 percent of those surveyed responded ‘neutral’ to key questions.

It’s clear that OEMs and the industry at large must continue to provide reliable and accurate information about this emerging technology and how it can and should answer the needs of Australian businesses.

“A key hurdle for many years has been the lack of an established, cohesive approach and mandated standards when it comes to rolling out EV technology and infrastructure – from all levels of government,” Grant Cooper Chief of Strategy, Isuzu Australia said.

“This has only very recently been addressed in the passenger car space, but there’s still work to be done when it comes to commercial vehicles.

“We must remind ourselves of the importance of adopting a long–term outlook when assessing new technologies though.”

You can download the entire Future of Trucking Report – The Way Forward at https://www.isuzu. com.au/news/future-of-trucking/?_ ga=2.165969723.429902417.1718934937647064775.1718934934

NVES | Feature

New Vehicle Efficiency Standards Passed Into Law The Australian Parliament on 16 May 2024 passed into law the New Vehicle Efficiency Standards (NVES), which provides enforceable vehicle efficiency standards for new vehicles sold in Australia. The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard Act 2024 (Cth) was enacted after the Federal Government considered submissions to its Consultation Impact Analysis in February 2024.

The Government has stated that the primary problem that it is trying to solve is how to save Australians money on fuel, stimulate the provision of more efficient vehicles into the Australian market and reduce CO2 emissions from new cars.

Prior to the law being passed by Parliament, the Government’s impact analysis for fuel efficiency standards came off the back of record vehicle sales in January 2024 being driven by SUVs and Utes. The Ford Ranger was Australia’s top-selling vehicle with sales of 4,747 units, followed by the Toyota Hilux (4,092), Toyota Landcruiser (2,541), Isuzu Ute D-Max (2,541) and Toyota RAV4 (2,211).

The Standards The NVES would imposes a headline target for vehicle importers (suppliers) in grams of CO2 emissions per kilometre travelled by passenger and light commercial vehicles.

The headline CO2 emissions target is based on a supplier’s fleet of new passenger and light commercial vehicles sold from 1 January 2025 – as opposed to each individual vehicle. Heavy vehicles and vehicles subject to heavy vehicle emissions tests are exempt from the NVES. The headline target means that suppliers are able to supply vehicles that exceed target, but the average emissions across the fleet must be at or below the headline target. The law also provides that the headline target will reduce every year until at least 2029, in the following manner:

From the headline targets in 2025 to those set in 2029, the NVES will require carbon intensity reductions of approximately 60% for Passenger Vehicles and an approximate 48% for Light Commercial Vehicles. This means that each supplier, each year, will need to supply increasingly more efficient vehicles.

Mr Stents acts for a broad range of clients in the automotive industry including motor vehicle dealers, component producers, automotive service providers, aftermarket providers and automotive industry group associations including AADA, MTAA and VACC.

The NVES will be enforced through a penalty on suppliers of $100 per g/km exceeding over the target. The penalty mechanism commences from 1 July 2025 to assist manufacturers in the transition to the NVES.

He regularly provides thought leadership in the automotive sector, publishes articles and speaks at industry conferences in Australia and overseas.

Vehicle Weights The NVES incorporates a ‘breakpoint’ mechanism which adjusts the headline figure based on the weight of the vehicle, to determine the effective target for suppliers.

Under this mechanism, heavier vehicles will have higher emissions targets, up to the ‘upper breakpoint’ limit. The ‘upper breakpoint’ will be 2,000kg for Passenger Vehicles and 2,200kg for Light Commercial Vehicles. All Passenger Vehicles heavier than 2,000kg and Light Commercial Vehicles over 2,200kg will have the same emissions target.

Exclusions The NVES will only apply to new car sales and will only apply to cars that are defined as

YEAR

PASSENGER VEHICLE CO2 (G/KM)

LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE CO2 (G/KM)

2025

141

210

2026

117

180

2027

92

150

2028

68

122

2029

58

110

www.saea.com.au

Evan Stents

In 2019, the average light vehicle had an emissions intensity of 181 g/km, which means that the NVES will require an approximately 68% reduction in emissions intensity by 2029 from this base.

Mr Stents holds a degree in Arts, an Honours degree in Law and a Masters degree in Commercial Law. Passenger Vehicles and Light Commercial Vehicles. Heavy Vehicles and used cars will not be regulated by the NVES. Off-road passenger vehicles that have a: •

rated towing capacity of three tonnes or more; and

•

body on frame chassis, are considered to be Light Commercial Vehicles and will have higher emissions targets.

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard Act 2024 (Cth) is available to view, visit https://www.legislation.gov.au/ C2024A00034/asmade/text 1 https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/pages/ UnderstandingEmissions/VehicleEmissions

VTE | 17

Feature | Work 4.0

Work 4.0 and the Identification of Complex Competence Sets INTRODUCTION The accelerating introduction of cyberphysical systems and data analytics is changing the way business and work is done.

Some traditional occupations are being displaced, and some new ones are emerging.

A study of the impact of digital transformation on professions has been lauched in Germany under the umbrella of Work 4.0, and the ‘future of work’ is being considered by a variety of organisations, eg the World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group (WEF, 2019).

New professional skillsets and different combinations of skillsets are needed. At the same time, there are regional and global social and economic dynamics that result in concerted efforts to reskill or upskill significant proportions of the population, drawing attention to the need for mapping our current competencies and those needed for the future.

The emerging business environment highlights a need for enterprise agility, including the need to understand the attributes of an agile workforce (Sherehiy and Karwowski, 2014), and agile project management ideas are being more broadly adopted. Cockburn and Highsmith (2001) had observed that agile development focuses on the talents and skills of individuals, molding processes to specific people and teams, which draws attention to the interplay between team member identification and accessible talent within and external to an enterprise.

This paper briefly explores matters of evolving competency requirements and the nature of information systems tools that facilitate competency mapping to help quickly assemble teams for specific projects and to identify gaps to be addressed.

Competency mapping and evolving competency requirements A number of researchers (eg Rezgui et al, 2012) have reviewed competency modelling initiatives in the context of information systems tool development to support human resources management and e-learning practices. Some variety in the definition of competency, variety in efforts to establish competency meta-standards, and in representative ontologies has been noted. An interplay between competency acquisition, application and assessment has been 18 | June 2024

discussed in different ways (e.g. Schnidt and Kunzmann, 2006). Rather than assemble a long list of references, we chose to use the space available for this paper to present some illustrative examples of our observations from the literature. In the following we use the term competency to represent the combination of knowledge, skills and attributes we bring together to get tasks done and the term competence to represent how well we might be able to perform such tasks.

Observation 1: identifying relevant competency sets.

In the context of building information modelling system utilization, Succar et al (2013) introduced the concept of competency sets: collections of specific kinds of individual competencies. A core set provided a foundation, another set was associated with the activity domain (in their case, building design), and a third set was designated as execution competencies (generally linked to knowledge of IT tools used). The underlying 24 competency elements (each of which had a brief description) identified in this case were viewed as a Business Information Modelling inventory of competencies to be acquired, assessed and applied.

Observation 2: introducing matters of relative proficiency.

Consistent with broad industry practice, Succar et al (2013) drew on the concept of levels of proficiency associated with each competency, adopting the following definitions:

ABSTRACT In our progressively more interconnected world some people may be displaced from their traditional occupations by intelligent agents and smart machines. At the same time there may be a shortage of people skilled in the development of these technologies, and societal changes may see more people undertaking a succession of short-term project assignments. This is leading to studies of future competency requirements (called Work 4.0 in Europe) and the evolution of agile human resources management systems. A focus on mapping accessible individual competence sets is emerging, facilitated by the identification of associated information systems.

In this paper we explore challenges in the identification of current and future competency requirements and in competency mapping to facilitate agile operations. We also introduce the concept of competency relationship mapping.

Keywords Industry 4.0, HRM agility, agile teams, competency mapping, lifelong learning. study of engineering project management competencies in a case study firm. They identified four competence categories, each of which had many components: project management processes, personal capabilities, technical capabilities and context/business understandings. Seventy-five employees provided a self-assessment of competencies needed in their respective roles, choosing from a list of 55 candidate topics. As might be expected, some roles had an emphasis on process/technical competencies (eg expert consultant, coach) and some on personal competencies (eg consortium facilitation), but the point to be made here is that sets of competencies were required, with different combinations for different roles.

•

Level 0 (none) denotes a lack of competence in a specific area or topic;

Observation 4: new requisite competencies and competency sets emerge over time.

•

Level 1 (basic) denotes an understanding of fundamentals and some initial practical application;

•

Level 2 (intermediate) denotes a solid conceptual understanding and some practical application;

•

Level 3 (advanced) denotes significant conceptual knowledge and practical experience in performing a competency to a consistently high standard; and

•

Level 4 (expert) denotes extensive knowledge, refined skill and prolonged experience in performing a defined competency at the highest standard.

Lu (2017) suggested that mobile computing, cloud computing, big data, and the Internet-ofThings are the key technologies associated with the ‘Industry 4.0’ environment, and that the integration of ‘things’, data, services and people place a focus on interoperability. A representation of ‘Industry 4.0’ is presented in figure 1. Prifti et al (2017) undertook a combined literature review and focus group study of competencies required in this environment. They considered potentially overlapping information system, computer science and engineering competencies. The most commonly mentioned competency sets were firstly, communicating with people, secondly technology affinity/big data/ problem-solving, and thirdly life-long learning/ working in interdisciplinary environments.

Observation 3: Different roles require a different mix of competency sets.

Takey and Carvalho (2015) undertook a

Work 4.0 | Feature

Ronald C Beckett Ron Beckett has more than 25 years’ experience in aerospace R&D and manufacturing management plus more than 10 years’ experience in innovation management consulting.

He is an Engineers Australia Fellow and an Adjunct Professor at the Swinburne University of Technology.

Figure 1 A representation of the elements of ‘Industry 4.0’

Eight generic competency factors with a total of 20 sub-tier competency dimensions were identified. Some dimensions showed computer science – engineering overlaps and some showed computer science – information systems overlaps. Thirdly, more than 6000 individual behaviors were identified at a lower level again, and these were clustered into 112 sets.

Observation 5: new requisite competencies are not just associated with new technologies.

Sherehiy et al (2007) characterized three attributes of an agile workforce. Proactivity was seen as a capability to anticipate a problem related to change, to offer solutions and take personal initiatives. Adaptivity was mentioned in terms of interpersonal and cultural adaptability, spontaneous collaboration, learning new tasks and responsibilities, and professional flexibility.

Resilience as seen to embody a positive attitude to change, to new ideas and new technology; a tolerance of an uncertain or unexpected situation and coping with stress.

From a study of 136 IS projects in a global firm, Fisk et al (2010) showed that boundaryspanning roles positively influenced success.

The characterised such roles as ambassador, coordinator and scout, enactment of these roles helped provide access to business, technical and business information systems competence sets within and external to the team. Successful teams could accumulate experience related to language usage, business network connections, business www.saea.com.au

contacts and cross-organizational activities (described as an acculturation process).

Competency Modelling Observation 6: competency modelling as a management tool is not just about Information Systems (IS).

Campion et al (2011) reported on the findings of an industry/academia task force on best practice in competency modelling facilitated by the Society for Industrial and Organisational Psychology. Industry practitioners saw the shift from a focus on job descriptions to a focus on competency as an innovation. A strategic management view of a competency model as a collection of knowledge, skills, abilities and other characteristics was taken, and favored over job analysis for a number of reasons. For example a finite number of competencies could be applied across many job families, future job requirements could also be readily identified, and the same attributes could be utilized in many HR systems like hiring, career development, learning/training and compensation systems. Twenty management ‘Best Practices’ related to analyzing, organizing and utilizing competency information were identified, including using competency libraries and identifying an appropriate level of granularity (number of competencies, level of detail). Those that characterized operational excellence, personal effectiveness and exceptional talent in the realization of organizational goals

He has contributed more than 150 articles related to entrepreneurship, innovation and knowledge management. His Doctorate was about the practicalities of implementing learning organisation concepts in an industry setting, based on the principle of ‘Learning to Compete’.

Mr Beckett has been involved in industry – academia collaborations for some 20 years and has served as a board member of two Cooperative Research Centres and has been a member of an Australian Government expert panel that reviewed CRC operations and proposals for new ones.

He has been a board member of a distance learning organisation and of a manufacturing industry technology transfer not-for-profit enterprise. and strategies were discussed, introducing matters of context. It was noted that competencies had to be maintained over time, and it was important to recognize the role of IS as a tool, not the system.

Observation 7: supporting IS tools have proven useful in specific contexts, but generic representations are still evolving.

Given that competence model components can be associated with sets of competencies, each having associated knowledge, skill and other attributes, a number of IS initiatives have pursued the idea of an underlying generic ontology (eg Miranda et al, 2017).

At finer levels of granularity a distinction is made between the ability to do something (skill) and the information to support this ability (knowledge). This may also facilitate analysis of who knows what in an organization. Christiaens et al (2006) had noted that mapping child-parent relationships VTE | 19

Feature | Work 4.0

may be necessary in identifying appropriate competence sets, but it is not sufficient as child-child and parent-parent relationships may exist to service particular applications.

Drawing on developments in database design, they characterized a three-layer model representation as a competency repository supporting a competence repository (a set of competency ‘commitments’) that supported an application layer. This kind of structure seems consistent with observation 4 made earlier in this paper and allows for the recognition of new knowledge set combinations needed to support Industry 4.0 work.

Concluding remarks Our interpretation the foregoing observations is that there is some value in being able to map workforce competencies, that individual competency elements are combined in sets to achieve particular goals, and that in considering individual capabilities, the level of competence needs to be considered. Whilst the context of the studies presented earlier may be different, at some level of abstraction there are generic requirements, as illustrated in Table 1.

We might not only need to understand a new technology and how to use it, we might have to understand how to use multiple technologies in combination. If work is organized as a succession of team-based projects rather than individual tasks, then assembling a group that between them have all the required competencies becomes the focus (e.g. Fisk et al, 2010), suggesting a need for matching processes that include consideration of non-technical skills.

Competence Model Components

Competencies

The ability to get work done

technical knowledge, personal skills and the use of tools

The ability to work with others

communication, leadership and boundary spanning skills

The ability to adapt to changing conditions

a pro-active, collaborative orientation, being able to learn fast, and a tolerance of uncertainty

Table 1 - A representation of Requisite Competence Model Components and Associated Competency Sets

Competency mapping can be used to identify what an organization needs and to make a comparison with current competencies.

As people are engaged in a succession of projects they may learn from others, enhancing their knowledge base and they may become more proficient in applying what they know. This introduces a need to have a process for refreshing the competency repository.

From an IS perspective, representations of a competency map like table 1 implies that generic parent-child ontologies might be developed, and this concept has provided a foundation for some specific IS implementations. But we suggest here that interactions between the ontological components also need to be considered using relationship matrices.

For example, taking the 10 kinds of objects shown in Table 1 competencies column and mapping them against each other would highlight, eg a need to consider boundary spanning skills in relation to technical knowledge. In addition, when considering a particular role, requisite competency sets can

be identified, eg technical skills combined with communication skills. While the diagonal of a matrix is normally considered null, this gives a pathway to explore subsidiary matrices (eg the skill / skill connections may stimulate consideration of intellectual and physical skillsets). This leads to a hierarchy of matrices.

Our practical experience is that, consistent with the concept of inclusiveness in the IT talent pipeline, mapping an individual’s competencies in this way can reveal strengths that can be used in different settings, facilitating effective re-skilling programs. For example, we have witnessed construction workers being reskilled to become aircraft mechanics by building on physical skills and learning capabilities, and how intergenerational boundary-spanning competencies can facilitate teamwork.

This competency relationship matrix concept combined with standardized ways of representing entities (e.g. IEEE Std 1484.20.1TM-2007) is to be a subject for further research.

References 1. Campion, M.A, Fink, A.A, Ruggeberg, B.J, Carr, L , Phillips, G.M and Odman, R.B (2011) Doing competencies well: Best Practices in competency modelling.

Pesonal Psychology, Vol 64, pp 225 262 2. Christiaens, S, DeBo, J and Verlinden, R (2006) Competency model in semantic context: Meaningful Competencies (Position Paper). In Meerzman, R, Tari, Z, Herrero, P et al (Eds): OTM Workshops 2006. LNCS 4278 pp 1078 - 1087.

Springer- Verlag, Berlin 3. Cockburn and Highsmith (2001) had observed that agile development focuses on the talents and skills of individuals, molding processes to specific people and teams.

4. Fisk, A., Berente, N. and Lyytinen, K., 2010. Boundary Spanning Competencies and Information System Development Project Success. In ICIS Proceedings (paper. 96) http://aisel.aisnet.org/ icis2010_submissions/96 20 | June 2024

5. Miranda, S., Orciuoli, F., Loia, V. and Sampson, D., 2017. An ontologybased model for competence management. Data & Knowledge Engineering, 107, pp.51-66.

6. Prifti, L., Knigge, M., Kienegger, H. and Krcmar, H., 2017. A Competency Model for” Industrie 4.0” Employees.

Wirtschaftsinformatik, University of St Gallan, Switzerland, February 12 - 15 https:// aisel.aisnet.org/wi2017/track01/paper/4/ 7. Rezgui, K., Mhiri, H. and Ghedira, K., 2012, July. Competency models: A review of initiatives. In Advanced Learning Technologies (ICALT), 2012 IEEE 12th International Conference on (pp. 141-142). IEEE. 8. Schmidt, A and Kunzmann, C (2006) Towards a human resource development ontology for combining competence manageent and technology-enhanced workplace learning. In Meerzman, R, Tari, Z, Herrero, P et al (Eds): OTM Workshops

2006. LNCS 4278 pp 1078 - 1087.

Springer- Verlag, Berlin 9. Sherehiy, B. and Karwowski, W., 2014. The relationship between work organization and workforce agility in small manufacturing enterprises.

International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 44(3), pp.466-473.

10. Succar, B., Sher, W. and Williams, A., 2013. An integrated approach to BIM competency assessment, acquisition and application. Automation in Construction, 35, pp.174-189.

11. Takey, S.M. and de Carvalho, M.M., 2015. Competency mapping in project management: An action research study in an engineering company. International Journal of Project Management, 33(4), pp.784-796.

12. WEF (2019) Towards a Reskilling Revolution: Industry-Led Action for the Future of Work. World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland ISBN: 978-2940631-08-7

Smart System | Feature

A smart system living lab Automotive sector designers and marketers have historically worked with potential users, suppliers or customers such as using focus groups, to gather and experiment with ideas. But an extension of this general concept called a ‘living lab’ has evolved that may challenge traditional approaches to innovation management.

Originally applied in the USA to investigate the practicalities of utilising ‘smart’ technology in the home, the concept has been applied more broadly in Europe over the last 20 years to help deal with complex technology uptake and societal problems like those associated with the pursuit of UN Sustainable Development Goals.

A traditional lab provides a safe place for experimentation with and validation of technological and/or biological science ideas using ethical and controlled practices.

A ‘living lab’ follows a comparable practice by empowering participants from diverse backgrounds to work with combinations of ideas from the technological and social sciences.

This can be challenging as it brings together people with different world views and different kinds of expertise in real-world settings. People from a community where a technology might be applied interact with business, government and academic participants at different times to both experiment with and validate ideas and new products or services.

While some established collaborative practices may deliver comparable outcomes, experience to date suggests that a living lab approach in the development phase may identify unexpected outcomes and may speed acceptance in the deployment phase. In addition, transdisciplinary knowledge, new connections made, and enhanced participant capabilities can provide a better foundation for a future round of innovative action.

Within the transport sector, living labs

www.saea.com.au

have been established to either provide a place with infrastructure for real-world experimentation and testing or to deal with the practicalities of wide-spread adoption of complex systems such as autonomous vehicles or fully electrified vehicle operations. Some examples follow.

The Italian city of Modena is building on local infrastructure (multiple test circuits) and its automotive heritage (the home of Ferrari) to provide testing, test management and data collection services in assessing the performance of new technology vehicles.

In the Karlsruhe region of Germany, the FZI has created a new type of research environment – a “House of Living Labs” building on local IT expertise. One of the living labs hosted is focused on smart future mobility concepts and another on intelligent systems in an industrial context.

A number of transport sectors are exploring the practicalities of living with smart autonomous vehicles systems for personal transport or for handling physical goods. In the Dutch province of Zeeland, a living lab is working with logistics companies to experiment with autonomous vehicles with mixed traffic in real-life logistic operations and on public roads.

A London (UK) Smart Mobility Living Lab is trialling an autonomous local taxi service supported by live CCTV and sensors at the roadside for collection and analysis of data, and to provide and evaluate vehicle-to-infrastructure communications in real-world conditions.

A Slovenian Autonomous Vehicle Living

The New London Taxi?

Lab is managing a globally unique, live learning environment, which is full of everyday interactions, all within the BTC City Ljubljana area.

The use of autonomous vehicles is well established in some rail sector applications. Examples are in mining transport operations and an autonomous underground rail line in the city of Turin, Italy. The Finnish city of Tampere living lab provides an example of extending this into public spaces as a light rail service.

The substitution of electric powered engines for fossil fuel powered engines has implications for ready access to renewable energy capacity and refuelling infrastructure, and living labs are being used to help confront emergent issues.

An RMIT-led electric vehicle living lab is investigating multiple implementation issues in conjunction Monash and La Trobe universities and industry partners Siemens, City of Melbourne, Centre for New Energy Technologies (C4NET) and CitiPower/Powercor.

A Monash University Zero Emission Bus Living Lab is partnering with ComfortDelGro Corporation Australia (CDC) to trial electric buses to service its main campus.

In 2010, the Netherlands started up nine living lab projects to explore the practicalities an economics of hybrid and electric vehicles. Reflection on the experience gained after five years has informed both citizens and policymakers about potential benefits and barriers to uptake.

Submitted by Ron Beckett

VTE | 21

Feature | Aero & Auto

Automotive Strategy Drives Aerospace Innovation

Darryn La Zar and Matt Guise ACS

The correlation between the automotive and aerospace markets holds more similarities than most may think and offers a valuable learning opportunity for the aerospace sector.

With its high demand and rapidly progressing standards, the automotive realm constantly strives for and achieves cutting-edge solutions to maintain continuous growth.

With the added pressure of geopolitical conflict, sustainability standards, and increased global travel, aerospace hasn’t faced these drivers until now. That’s why when a 50-year-old or older aerospace facility needs upgrading, the solutions that worked in the past simply will not address the objectives of today’s organization and its customers.

The many lessons that the automotive industry has learned through volume and iteration offer valuable expertise that serves as a bridge to other industries, specifically aerospace.

One significant area of overlap lies in data, both sectors assess facility performance and equipment efficiency. These present an opportunity for the aerospace market, particularly as companies deal with aging facilities and equipment.

The challenges the aerospace industry face are unique but not without precedence.

Specifically, the aerospace industry has a related counterpart: the automotive industry.

With overlapping technologies and deeply connected customer needs, the two industries are kin.

The most significant difference is in their speed. Automotive’s fast pace and high volume enable the industry’s advancements, methodologies, and innovations to serve as a roadmap for aerospace facilities while driving down costs.

When tackling their growth and Research and Development (R&D) goals, aerospace organizations can leverage the forward facing approach native to the automotive industry to potentially cut years off testing and trials for future innovations.

The future of aerospace includes many drivers and innovations to meet market aspirations that already have seeds growing, such as supersonic and hypersonic capabilities and the expansion of drone usage across defense and transportation.

For example, American Airlines is already poised to have the world’s largest supersonic fleet by 2025, intending to carry its first passengers by 2029. Other widespread market initiatives and technologies are also instigating this rapid change, including alternative energy and automation.

The automotive industry has used these 22 | June 2024

technologies for years, offering a vital roadmap hinged on tangible and measurable results that will benefit aerospace organizations looking to incorporate these technologies into their processes.

A perfect storm on the horizon There is a “perfect storm” pushing innovation in the aerospace industry. It combines the rapidly rising impacts of globalization, geopolitical conflict, sustainability initiatives, and the drive for alternative energy solutions.

These drivers are multiplied when matched with the rapid obsolescence of aerospace facilities and their equipment, typically resulting from the introduction of new and more advanced technologies and components, and the ensuing inability to meet the demands of today’s market.

In the context of the aerospace industry, where rapid iteration is uncommon and many facilities are decades old, obsolescence can significantly impact the design, maintenance, and operation of aircraft and their related systems.

To start, there is a significant drive for more air travel as populations and global interconnectivity grow. This is true across the board for individuals, organizations, defence, shipping and logistics, and other vital areas of aerospace.

Globalization and heightened international interconnectivity have reshaped how business is conducted at an individual and organizational level. For the aerospace industry, this fundamental reality impacts customer expectations as much as internal needs. The worldwide supply chain disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic still linger, while conflicts in Ukraine and Israel affect the aerospace industry on a near-daily basis.

These conflicts result in restrictions, rising prices, logistical challenges, new regulations, and significant slowdowns throughout the entire supply chain. Their impacts also have lasting effects in the aerospace industry, where the complexity and high cost of aerospace equipment and products means progress moves at a slower pace than other industry counterparts.

This global interconnectivity influence also drives positive collaboration between organizations and individuals across borders.

The aerospace industry is particularly primed to benefit from a global talent pool with diverse perspectives across industries and expertise

to foster innovation and accelerate the development of the technologies it needs to meet current demands.

Meanwhile, the pace of technology hasn’t slowed but instead quickened. Key drivers and innovations in the aerospace industry are rapidly changing. Alternative energy solutions are a primary influence, driven by resource availability, customer expectations, and increasing regulations for sustainable business practices and products.

Take the Horizon Europe funding program, which provides approximately €95 billion in initiatives to support collaboration and research for innovations that tackle climate change. As awareness of environmental issues grows, so does the need to quickly adapt traditional products and processes to more sustainable options that reduce carbon emissions.

Worldwide, aviation accounts for two percent of all human-caused CO2 emissions and 12 percent of all transportation CO2 emissions, with a further 3.5 percent of non-CO2 climate impacts contributing to global warming.

In other industries where costs and complexity aren’t as high, these innovations can happen with rapid iterations, such as in the automotive market, where there are an estimated 1.47 billion cars in the world today. Because of this, the automotive market is targeting to meet net zero emission goals by 2035. As automotive’s progress in transitioning to decarbonized vehicles rapidly continues and reduces their climate impacts, the aerospace industry is primed to be responsible for a significantly greater percentage of CO2 emissions.

This innovation takes much longer for the aerospace market, requiring proven, repeatable, and reliable outcomes to ensure the product’s safety in the air, carrying valuable passengers or cargo. Initiatives similar to the United States Federal Sustainability Plan, which promotes these zero-emission targets, will undoubtedly look toward the aerospace industry as automotive tackles these objectives over the coming years.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the most prevalent alternative fuel solution for reducing emissions from air transportation. With chemistry similar to traditional fossil jet fuel, SAF acts as a drop-in replacement for current fuels but stems from sustainable feedstocks such as cooking oil, non-palm waste oils from animals or plants, or solid waste from homes

Aero & Auto | Feature

and businesses, such as packaging, paper, textiles, and food scraps.

adaptable transportation solutions will see a 52 percent growth rate in less than seven years.

According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), over 360,000 commercial flights have used SAF at 46 airports, primarily concentrated in the United States and Europe.

Compared with conventional jet fuel, 100 percent SAF has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 94 percent, depending on feedstock and technology pathways.

This process also demands that companies work with regulatory entities to establish standards of safety and the regulatory frameworks and certification processes needed to maintain those standards.

Electrification is another notable rising energy solution for efficiency and sustainability improvements in the aerospace industry, especially in commercial aerospace.

Electrification allows for more efficient propulsion systems with fewer moving parts, helping to meet goals for reduced maintenance costs and increased reliability.

This amounts to component innovations such as electric motors, battery systems, and improved aircraft thermal management and power distribution. For example, the industry is seeing a significant rise in electric solutions related to vertical takeoff and landing. Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing aircraft (eVTOL) are powered by electric motors controlled by computer systems that are either completely autonomous or piloted. In the height of their development and testing stage, aerospace organizations that can adopt solutions to speed up their time to market gain a serious competitive advantage.

The eVTOL aircraft market is projected to grow from US$1.2 billion in 2023 to a whopping US$23.4 billion by 2030, meaning this particular sector for efficient, sustainable, affordable, and

Some aerospace facilities are in dire need of updates to address today’s market needs. The obsolescence of previous aerospace products and systems impacts existing facilities, especially when many were developed over 50 years ago. If an organization’s facility is ill equipped to handle rising technologies and throughput needs, it won’t be able to keep up with its customer needs, let alone the competition. This is where industry experts can learn vital lessons from each other.

Unique challenges in aerospace The aerospace industry is in a unique position that demands rapid expansion and innovation like never before. This results in an intricate and interconnected set of challenges for research and development testing facilities that haven’t seen this rate of innovation for decades. Navigating the dynamic landscape of costs, supply chains, and rapidly evolving technologies demands strategic awareness of those challenges to create viable solutions that last into the future: Challenge #1: Calibration to today’s costs, supply, and technology.

When the supply chain is volatile, the ability to see the big picture and make informed, data-driven decisions is obscured. Advanced technologies result in further complexities

of the costs associated with raw materials, dedicated equipment, and skilled labour, especially among longstanding aerospace leadership, engineers, and technologists.

Add unexpected supply chain disruptions to the mix, and. aerospace organizations constantly need to recalibrate their production plans and resource allocation. These challenges are why improving supply chain visibility is the top priority for 55 percent of manufacturing-related businesses.

Challenge #2: Rate of certification.

Unlike other industries, such as the automotive market, where certification processes are streamlined due to their frequency, certification of aerospace products is a time consuming and intricate process hinged on stringent safety and performance standards. There is no room for error in any testing or manufacturing process, but this is especially true of the aerospace industry. Achieving regulatory approval can significantly impact time to market for new aircraft and related technologies.

Furthermore, new technologies such as electric propulsion or autonomous systems require evaluation and structuring of their certification processes. As they relate to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), these regulations and subsequent certification processes simply do not exist in step with the innovations and technologies being adapted, such as electrification or alternative fuels.

With the effort to get to market quickly, eVTOL companies are working closely with the FAA to help expedite and shape the regulations to meet industry objectives.

Challenge #3: Throughput demands.

Air travel and transportation are growing at a rate that current aerospace facilities cannot keep up with. A record 4.7 billion passengers are expected to fly worldwide in 2024. Geopolitical unrest continues to drive global defence. Air freight capacities have recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic, yet global inflation and heightened demand suggest further demand pressures are around the corner.

Challenge #4: Quickly changing regulations.

When a market faces rapid innovation, regulations are not in place to address new evolutions until testing and development begin.

Safety standards for combustible engines are not the same for electrification, hydrogen, or other alternative energy solutions, let alone new methods or technologies that impact processes and controls. This is especially relevant in the Electric Vehicle (EV) market, where regulations are yet to be implemented.

Challenge #5: The combined complexity and fragility of aerospace test cells.

Aircraft components may carry a multimilliondollar price tag, yet their sensitivity is amplified by the intricate design and complex nature of their environments. Designing for this combination of heightened complexity and simultaneous fragility is no easy task. It’s

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even more challenging to design and maintain testing facilities that can accommodate diverse and specialized testing requirements. This demands a standard of precision and accuracy founded on expertise and experience that facilities with legacy equipment and systems may be unable to meet. Lack of precision leads to failures within production or testing. Any failure leads to delays, increased costs, safety risks, and tarnished reputations.

Eight vital areas where aerospace can learn from the automotive sector Many challenges the aerospace industry encounters are familiar, especially for its automotive counterparts. With its long history and widespread demands across personal and business use, the automotive industry has a quicker rate of production and innovation.

By incorporating the lessons learned from the automotive industry, aerospace organizations can enhance overall innovation and resilience during pivotal change.

1. An inside-out approach that focuses on core capabilities first, with an emphasis on front end planning, to define the acceptance criteria upfront. By working from the “inside out,” the function and capabilities of the test facility are always the top priorities. With this process, testing requirements and product goals drive facility design rather than the other way around. This enables a seamless design and build focused on centralized aerospace testing needs, including opportunities for modular design, allowing for the flexible assembly of components.

2. Safety and compliance standards founded on industry knowledge. In particular, recommissioning or retrofitting aging aerospace test buildings poses significant safety challenges for personnel, products, and test equipment. Many aerospace test buildings built over 50 years ago are still being used today. Meeting safety standards that also incorporate new technologies exacerbate that challenge.

Automotive safety standards can inform aerospace about the impacts and risks of new technologies while also showcasing safety protocols primed to adapt to continuous change.

3. Data collection and analysis to empower decision making at every level. Data collection is the primary objective of any testing facility. The automotive industry has pioneered software and systems that strategically break down that data, analyze it, and leverage it for informed decisionmaking for innovations, operations, and resource allocation. This is especially important in real-time data analysis during testing or production processes to deliver analysis to the operator or team upon completion of the test, rather than a separate analysis application or method.

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These real-time insights arm aerospace R&D with the reports they need to make immediate, informed decisions to manage safety and regulatory compliance, test and validate systems or prototypes, optimize performance, detect faults or risks, and deliver ongoing predictive maintenance.

Aerospace can adapt the technologies developed by automotive to enhance aircraft maintenance with predictive analytics, reduce downtime, and improve reliability.

4. Capable storage, power, and utilities. As alternative energy solutions become even more necessary, power and storage will be significant. In addition, widespread challenges, especially with solutions such as hydrogen that requires substantial controls to remain safe. Also, electric solutions, which have high flammability risks demand strict safety standards. The automotive industry has implemented significant strides in effective, cost efficient, and safe energy storage, power, and utilities that can tackle throughput needs. For example, the automotive industry has proven experience in optimizing resource allocation, such as minimizing costs and power consumption related to operations to be redirected to equipment, facility controls and systems when not in use. The industry has also embraced power regeneration technologies that recycle waste energy to greatly reduce costs related to storage while improving efficiency.

5. Heightened efficiency and throughput for testing and production. Nearly every industry works to enhance its throughput and production while improving efficiency.

This is especially true when it meets the demands of increased air travel and transportation.

Lean manufacturing principles and customized equipment solutions adapted from the automotive sector can streamline similar processes in aerospace, minimizing waste and optimizing workflow without compromising quality.

6. Systems integration solutions. For any facility, seamlessly integrated systems guarantee that testing processes function efficiently and safely while improving time to market without sacrificing quality.

Being first to market for automotive and aerospace industries can mean the difference between being an industry leader or a market follower. Support from a dedicated systems integration expert ensures these systems are built on subject matter expertise with broad market exposure to varying technologies and industry applications, skilled, disciplined project management, a proven process, and application knowledge.

7. Equipment solutions future-proofed for continuous growth. With its

longstanding facilities and processes, it’s clear that the aerospace industry has room to invest in scalability for future growth, which also results in its current challenges. On the other hand, automotive manufacturers embrace adaptable, modular manufacturing tools that can accommodate evolving production and R&D goals. It’s important for aerospace organizations to invest in flexible, scalable equipment solutions, including nonproprietary equipment that remains flexible to adapting business and testing goals.

8. Committed, ongoing sustainability practices. The drive for improved sustainability isn’t going anywhere.

Automotive manufacturers benefit from frequent customers in widespread markets and dedicated experts driving innovation in the field. Automotive increasingly uses ecofriendly materials, processes, and energy solutions that meet industry and customer standards and cost and efficiency parameters. Following their lead, aerospace can also reduce the environmental impact of aircraft by exploring material and manufacturing processes from automotive experts aligned with similar technologies.

Moving forward Preparation and planning are the keys to surviving a perfect storm on the ocean.

Surviving the tempest facing the aerospace industry is no different. Empowered with expertise from the automotive industry, aerospace organizations can create a roadmap for facilities to tackle their production and testing goals. Inevitably, these industries will continue to change and proliferate, as will their challenges. Continuous learning is the only way to truly stay on top of that change. Leveraging our industry knowledge and expertise, ACS offers insights and solutions that address these challenges, using the knowledge from optimizing performance in the automotive sector to drive advancements in aerospace.

ACS designs, engineers, and builds innovative equipment, machines, controls, and facilities for industry leaders in markets including automotive, aerospace, and manufacturing.

The company is a systems integrator, helping companies maximize their facilities’ efficiency with systems designed and engineered to work together.

It combines knowledge of building design and construction with expertise and understanding of equipment, R&D and production test, process systems, automation, data acquisition, and controls for industry leaders who require high-performance systems.

Bremar | Feature

Pushing for Australian manufacturing An automotive CEO event to push for Australian manufacturing

Shai Terem and Brett Longhurst Bremar, a supplier to the automotive industry, held a special industry breakfast at the end of May to bring together key players across the Australian automotive sector. As an integral part of the sector, SAE-A was invited to attend the event which featured presentations, panel discussions and round table dialogues to highlight the emerging dynamic evolution of Australia’s automotive industry.

This was followed an in-depth discussion where attendees addressed the challenges and the opportunities facing the industry. This conversation revealed an automotive industry in Australia that is thriving while it evolves from a traditional model dominated by local Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to a diverse ecosystem of innovative businesses.

The event kicked off with a compelling presentation by Bremar’s Managing Director, Brett Longhurst, who showcased Bremar’s advanced automotive engineering, simulation and manufacturing capabilities, including the company’s ability to 3D print metal and carbonfibre reinforced parts.

These companies now focus on converting, modifying and customising OE vehicles to meet specific local requirements and applications.

“The Automotive CEO Breakfast event has reinforced our belief that Australia’s automotive industry is vibrant and full of potential. By fostering innovation, collaboration, and advocating for supportive government policies, we can ensure a bright future for the modern automotive manufacturing industry in Australia,” Mr Longhurst said.

Other companies such as Jaunt in Scoresby, Melbourne remanufacturers iconic cars into premium electric vehicles implementing engineering solutions to transform them into modern day vehicles.

These vehicles range from the Issigonis Mini to the Porsche 911.

His address was followed by an insightful talk from Shai Terem, CEO of Markforged, who shared his expertise on the transformative impact of additive manufacturing within the automotive industry and its applications across various sectors globally.

Markforged is an American company based in Billerica, Massachusetts, an additive manufacturing company that designs, develops, and manufactures The Digital Forge, an industrial platform of 3D printers, software and materials that enables manufacturers to print parts at the point-of-need.

As a result of this there is an emergence of bespoke manufacturers like Premcar, now producing niche vehicles with unprecedented levels of engineering and build quality.

Another is Renner Auto that offers customers modern replicas of the classic Porsche Speedster from the 1955-57 era. The company uses 3D CAD design tools and modern manufacturing technologies wrapped in an older body but atop a custom engineered semi unibody chassis that accommodates a modern fuel injected four-cylinder boxer engine with a 5-speed transaxle.

The company has remote teams and partners across the US, Canada, Europe, UK, Asia, and Australia. These teams work with customers onthe-ground to transform their operations.

In order for Australia to foster this growth there is a need for financial support from government, in particular government grants and funding which must be made more accessible to small business in order to drive innovation. And while such support would be beneficial the consensus was that reducing regulatory red tape and developing national regulations are of even greater importance to boost business confidence and encourage investment.

Additive manufacturing is being recognised and adopted by OEMs as a process capable of producing production quality end-use parts, tooling, jigs and fixtures.

The discussions underscored the necessity of generating industry support at the government policy level and attracting new talent to the sector.

Other well-known industry players such as Stuart Charity, CEO of the Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association and Geoff Gwilym, CEO of the Victorian Automotive Chamber of Commerce attended and were a part of a panel discussion that explored the current and future directions of the industry in Australia.

A broader public awareness campaign was also raised as being crucial to dispel the misconception that Australia’s automotive industry has declined due to the absence of local OEM manufacturers. In reality, the country boasts world-class design, engineering, and manufacturing capabilities that remain largely unrecognized by the public.

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Andrew Somers 1,* Transoptim Consulting, Upwey, Australia * Corresponding author: andrew.somers@transoptim.com.au

ABSTRACT

1

APAC-21-134

Forecasting Near-term Uptake of Technologies to Support Transport Agency Decision-making 1. Introduction and Background Austroads is the collective of the Australian and New Zealand transport agencies, representing all levels of government. Austroads Future Vehicles and Technologies (FVaT) program supports Austroads’ member organizations to deliver an improved road transport network that leverages the benefits of emerging technologies whilst minimizing some of the risks inevitably faced during a period of rapid change.

Australian and New Zealand vehicle fleets may be at the start of a period of significant change due to the emergence of Automated, Connected and Electric Vehicles as well as new models of vehicle ownership and use.

Austroads commissioned forecasts to explore the likely adoption of certain vehicle technologies within the vehicle fleets of 2030 in Australia and New Zealand. These forecasts seek to guide planning for the FVaT program as well as to assist planning within member agencies and the broader industry. Importantly, the output was always intended to be only the forecasts of sales and fleet penetration. While there are many questions that arise from the growth of these vehicle technologies within the vehicle fleet, the exploration of those questions was intended to occur separately to the production of the forecasts. This purity of focus also freed the forecasting effort from considering the question of desirability – i.e. to consider the range of likely adoption rates, without any bias that can be difficult to avoid when also considering whether those levels of adoption are desirable or undesirable.

As this is a fast-moving field, the initial forecast produced during 2019-20 was intended to be the start of a process in which forecasts would be regularly revised and updated. The first update process was undertaken during 2021 and revised the forecasts and extended the horizon to 2031.

2. Method and Discussion of Method The general approach adopted for forecasting the penetration of new technologies into new vehicles and the vehicle fleet was informed by the patterns of adoption for past and current vehicle technologies such as Electronic Stability Control (ESC) and Auto Emergency Braking (AEB). The approach is broadly similar to that used more recently by the Australian Government Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) [1] for vehicle technology adoption.

The limited horizon adopted by this project (2030-2031) allowed the adoption of a (relatively) 26 | June 2024

simple approach, informed by these prior technology adoptions. This involved five broad activities explained in more detail below: • Identifying in specific detail, and agreeing with stakeholders, which technologies should be forecast • Confirming an approach to modelling technology adoption in newly purchased vehicles • Developing a fleet penetration model for the adoption of newly purchased vehicles equipped with the new technology into the fleet • Building and analyzing the evidence bases to inform the forecast for each specific technology • Developing descriptive commentary for uptake in other vehicle types 2.1 Identifying Technologies to be Forecast A total of eight specific technologies were agreed to be the subject of forecasts in the original forecast set (Future Vehicles 2030). In the Future Vehicles 2031 update, some of these definitions were updated to reflect changes in market expectations, and one was discontinued.

A common method of defining Automated Vehicle (AV) technologies that are the subject of forecasts is to draw upon the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) levels of automation as set out in J3016 (e.g. L2, L3, L4). While this has the advantage of alignment with commonly used language in industry, the breadth of each level (and particularly Level 4) causes challenges in both producing forecasts and interpreting the impacts resulting from technology adoption.

For this project each technology to be forecast therefore used a more specific description that sought to align with expected product releases into vehicles. i. Active Safety Systems: vehicles equipped with multiple Active Safety Systems that provide driver support (such as Auto Emergency Braking also known as AEB, lane keeping assistance, adaptive cruise control) ii. Conditional (L3) Automated driving: vehicles capable with no more than a fallback ready driver for at least some Operational Design Domains (ODDs) such as motorway segments iii. Highly Automated Driving – early ODDs: covers expected early Operational Design Domains (ODDs) such as some full door to door urban journeys and urban and higher volume rural motorways.

Australian and New Zealand vehicle fleets may be at the start of a period of significant change due to the emergence of Automated, Connected and Electric Vehicles as well as new models of vehicle ownership and use. To inform its research programs and decision-marking by member transport agencies, Austroads commissioned forecasts to explore the likely adoption of certain vehicle technologies within the vehicle fleets of 2030 in Australia and New Zealand. These forecasts have since undergone the first of intended periodic reviews and been extended out to 2031. The forecasts found that the adoption of each of the technologies would take place over an extended period and that different technologies were at different stages of the adoption process.

The forecasts are purely forecasts, not combined with consideration of impacts of technology adoption. This approach assisted a purity of focus on what appears likely to occur, rather than introducing any bias as to what might be desirable. Technologies such as Active Safety Systems are well progressed in adoption and although Electric Vehicle technologies are not as well progressed, they appear to be following a clear adoption pattern. Highly Automated Driving is anticipated to feature in only a small number of vehicles within the forecast period (e.g. 20302031). The project also explored differences between Australia and New Zealand, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, and cities and regional areas.

KEYWORDS: Automated Vehicle, Connected Vehicle, Electric Vehicle, Technology Adoption iv. Highly Automated Driving – broader ODDs; covers an expected broader range of ODDs, extending to more urban and rural roads and conditions. Cooperative-ITS equipped: vehicles equipped with standards-based interoperable Cooperative ITS systems v. Connectivity to cloud: vehicles equipped with cloud-based communication that may be used for services such as live traffic information, over-the-air updates, automated crash notification, concierge and booking services, etc vi. Battery Electric Vehicles: Electric Vehicles for which a battery is the primary energy source (includes vehicles with range extenders and PHEVs) vii. For hire cars with driver: Cars available for transport use other than by owner / lessee, driver provided with vehicle (e.g. taxi, rideshare) Forecast viii was included in the original 2030 forecasts but discontinued for the 2031 update due to both a shift in focus and data challenges associated with pandemic-related travel pattern changes.

It is useful to note that all the technologies defined for forecasting are technologies fitted to new vehicles at time of manufacture or first purchase. This series of forecasts does not seek to cover retrofitting of technologies to vehicles during their life-cycle.

Technical | Feature

2.2 Modelling Technology Adoption in Newly Purchased Vehicles Although the term modelling is used in the title of this section, no specific model was used.

Instead, a technology adoption life-cycle was used, informed by the diffusion of innovation theory developed by E.M. Rogers in 1962 [2] and which remained relevant for subsequent adoptions of technology. To the extent a modelling approach was then adopted, it is best described as curve fitting (of the technology adoption life-cycle) within approximate points that reflected the available evidence bases (see Section 2.4).

The technology adoption life-cycle incorporates an appreciation of human behavior by reflecting that there are stages by which any person adopts an innovation: • awareness of the need for an innovation; • decision to adopt (or reject) the innovation; • initial use of the innovation to test it; and • continued use of the innovation.

If an innovation proceeds successfully through adoption, the diffusion occurs over time as individuals progressively adopt the innovation.

The balance between perceived benefits and costs of a technology influences the pace at which such progression through the adoption stages occurs. For vehicle technologies, analysis of prior technology adoptions (e.g. ABS, ECC, AEB) identified that this rate of progress is typically slower than for consumer electronics.

This finding was consistent with BITRE’s 2021 analysis of a wide range of vehicle technology adoptions [1].

As noted earlier, the technology adoption lifecycle is not a specific model but rather acts as a clarifying framework for the modelling of technology adoption. This framework sets the task for the later analysis of the evidence base for each technology as needing to inform: • A series of estimates (medium, rapid, slow) for when each technology will first become available on Australian passenger vehicles; and • A series of estimates for how quickly adoption will then progress through each relevant subsequent phase of adoption (e.g. from innovators to early adopters, from early adopters to early majority, etc).

There is no guarantee that any innovation will receive widespread adoption, as there is a need for a clear relative advantage of the innovation to the alternative choice or course of action. Many of the technologies assessed in these forecasts are at the early stages of adoption or prior to adoption. For each forecast, an assumption has been made that they will progress through the stages of adoption, therefore the question in each case is as to the rate of progressive adoption. The progression is not necessarily rapid or one that goes through to full penetration; only that penetration will increase through to 2030 rather than fall away. This assumption is appropriate as technologies for which there was insufficient confidence of increasing penetration through to 2030 were excluded from the forecasts. www.saea.com.au

2.3 Modelling Fleet Penetration of Newly Adopted Technologies The technology adoption life-cycle framework (Section 2.2) when combined with the analysis of the evidence base (Section 2.4) forecasts how a specific technology penetrates sales of new vehicles. A fleet penetration model was developed to provide a detailed basis for the estimation of how sales in a certain year translate into fleet penetration in a future year.

The primary data source used for the development of this model was the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) series 9309.0 - Motor Vehicle Census [3].

ABS Motor Vehicle Census microdata was extracted for each of the available years of 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. The pattern was then established for vehicles leaving the fleet, providing an attrition rate by age of vehicle.

The primary attrition rate function was developed for passenger vehicles, Separate attrition rates were calculated for other vehicle types to inform later steps of the process (e.g. Section 2.5) as the attrition patterns differ between vehicle types.

Figure 1. Calculated attrition function for Australian passenger vehicles

The next step in the model development was validation of the developed attrition function with aggregate fleet level attrition provided by the ABS. This was followed by analyzing trend growth over time in the fleet. A function was also added to the model to reflect that peak number of vehicles from any year of manufacture is not reached for several years (e.g. the highest number of 2016 manufactured vehicles does not occur until 2018 due to delays in shipping, sales and registration).

Figure 2. Estimated age make-up of the 2030 Australian passenger vehicle fleet

Figure 2 shows that although the largest single time-segment of vehicles in the future fleet will be recent vehicles (e.g. last 5 years), these still make up less than one-third of the fleet.

This fidelity within the fleet penetration model allows for confidence in translating technology

sales penetration estimates to fleet penetration forecasts. Alternative methods such as assuming turnover based on average fleet age (~10 years) introduce unnecessary levels of error given that the data is not available to provide this more reliable approach.

The original Future Vehicles 2030 forecasts [4] were developed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had significant effects on the Australian, New Zealand and international vehicle markets.

The Future Vehicles 2031 update [5] assessed the impact of changes to new passenger vehicle sales over the course of the pandemic. It found that the reduction over the first 12-months of the pandemic was equivalent to a loss of between one- and two-months’ worth of sales.

The impact of semiconductor shortages was also considered, however only limited evidence was available at that time for the impacts of shortages (merely evidence that there were shortages).

2.4 Building and Analyzing Evidence Bases for Each Technology A transparent evidence base was established for each technology to be forecast. For technologies already available, the desired evidence was for the progress rate of adoption of the technology and current levels of sales penetration. For technologies not yet available, evidence was sought for: • Credible statements as to the expected timing of first availability of the technology; and • The progress rate of adoption for the closest reasonable similar technologies.

Forecasts produced by others were considered as a cross-check to forecasts produced from this evidence base. Other than BITRE’s 2019 Electric Vehicle sales forecast [5], they were not used as a primary evidence source.

The evidence base for each forecast is set out in the original published report [4] and any updated evidence in the update report [5].

While space limitations prevent covering each of these evidence bases in full here, it is warranted to briefly explore the evidence base used for Highly Automated Driving. Both the original forecasts [4] and the update [5] relied upon statements direct from manufacturers, with consideration given to whether those statements still reflected likely time of technology availability.

This additional consideration was critical given a repeated pattern slippage in announced dates, helpfully tracked by an analyst at the US based Center for Automotive Research [7].

At time of developing the original 2030 forecasts, this diligence on current credibility of evidence was essential to producing meaningful forecasts for Highly Automated Driving. This resulted in the production of forecasts that substantially differed from other contemporary efforts to the extent that a specific appendix was included to explore and explain the difference. Fortunately, industry forecasts for Highly Automated Driving have been updated in the meantime and as of 2021 have less optimism bias than previously.

This can for example be seen in comparing the 2017-2021 forecasts of the UK Connected Places Catapult [8] and [9] respectively. To their VTE | 27

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credit, the Catapult continues to make available their previous forecast for comparison, a practice that is far from universal.

While Austroads forecasts were revised between the original version developed during 2019 and 2020 [4] and the 2021 update [5], the changes were relatively small. The Austroads forecasts also transparently show and discuss the changes made, as it was considered important to share how forecasts change over time in response to changing evidence.

For each of the produced forecasts, a slow, medium and rapid scenario were modelled.

While the medium forecast seeks to approximate a median forecast within the evidence base, the available evidence bases are too small to put definitive percentiles to the slow and rapid forecasts, although they approximate 15th and 85th percentile forecasts in their intent.

2.5 Developing Descriptive Commentary for Uptake in Other Vehicle Types The forecasts each addressed uptake of technologies for new Australian passenger vehicles, encompassing cars and SUVs. Descriptive comparisons were provided for: • New Zealand compared to Australia; • Light and heavy commercial vehicles relative to passenger vehicles; and • Rural and remote areas compared to major urban centers.

In each case, data was sought to provide a comparison point from which descriptive inferences could be made. Due to limitations of available data, this was often a comparison of relative vehicle ages, however fitment of current market technologies was included where available.

2.6 Consideration of Alternative Methods As this is a fast-moving field, there would be only limited value in including in this paper a literature review that explored other forecasts. Other forecasts were reviewed as part of the evidence base in both the original [4] and update editions [5]. The most frequent conclusion would be that the forecasts may have been relevant at a point in time but had become outdated – indeed this was already frequently the case for prior forecasts reviewed in the original edition.

What is more meaningful is to consider whether other forecasts offer a superior alternative method to that used here.

The method used here is not unique, and in many cases drew upon work by others, for example: • There is strong alignment to the approach of BITRE [1] with respect to how the fleet penetration model was developed and utilized; and • The use of vehicle feature availability by ANCAP [10](e.g. standard, optional, only some models) was adapted for use in technologies already in deployment.

Forecasting methods used by others were not always disclosed, at least at the detail level, for example where the publication took the form of whitepapers or similar by large international firms.

Where differences were clear, a significant explanation of differences comes about in cases 28 | June 2024

where a much longer time horizon was used.

The methods used here are most suitable for near-term forecasts and would require a different approach to extend beyond the 10-year horizon used. Available approaches for this include: • A form of meta-analysis of multiple forecasts by others, e.g. as used by BITRE [1] and other work by Austroads [11] where adoption is forecast out to 2050 – 2070 • Construction of a model where the model functions are established by extensive analysis of driving factors for the progress so far in the deployment of the technology, e.g. BITRE’s analysis of international market uptake for Electric Vehicles [6] • Construction of a model that seeks to establish explanatory variables ahead of any (significant) uptake, e.g. Bansal and Kockelman’s focus on willingness to pay for Automated Vehicle technology [12] These alternative methods were not adopted for this work, as either their value becomes most relevant for a longer forecast horizon or their use would have required a substantial increase in project budget, without sufficient justification in the form of improved forecast outputs.

3. Forecast Technology Adoption The sections below provide a selection of the forecast outputs. The results provided are mostly from the forecast update [5] as the updated forecasts effectively supersede the earlier work [4].

3.1 Active Safety Systems This forecast covers vehicles equipped with multiple Active Safety Systems that provide driver support (such as Auto Emergency Braking, lane keeping assistance, and adaptive cruise control).

The forecast for Active Safety Systems anticipated that uptake would continue a rapid growth phase through (at least) the forecast period.

A check of updated data for the forecast update [5] identified that many of the highest selling passenger vehicle models have standard fitment of Active Safety Systems on most or all models in the range. Indeed, the uptake of Active Safety Systems (LKA and ACC) appeared to be tracking well ahead of the forecast. The original forecast [4] estimated current year (2021) sales penetration of 31% in the medium scenario (and 42% in the rapid scenario), whereas implied current year uptake based on analysis of top selling models was closer to 70%.

Consultation with industry stakeholders indicated that it was not yet clear that this observed pattern represented a sustained acceleration in uptake.

An update was therefore made so that the rapid forecast for Active Safety Systems reflects the observation that current uptake may be running significantly ahead of forecast levels. This updated forecast features in Figure 4. For the medium and slow forecasts, no such adjustment was yet made, with a recommendation that the next review period re-check to validate whether the apparent acceleration in uptake has been sustained.

3.2 Conditional and Highly Automated Driving This set of forecasts covers three types of Conditional Automation and Highly Automated Driving: • Conditional Automation such as Traffic Jam Pilot or Motorway Pilot (at a minimum of SAE Level 3) • Highly Automated Driving (minimum SAE Level 4) –early ODDs: covers expected early Operational Design Domains (ODDs) such as some full door to door urban journeys and urban and higher volume rural motorways.

• Highly Automated Driving – broader ODDs covers an expected broader range of ODDs, extending to more urban and rural roads and conditions.

Figure 5 below provides the vehicle sales forecast for automation features in the medium scenario. The sales forecast has been shown as the forecast penetration is at such low levels to be difficult to observe at all if the fleet forecast were shown. Indeed, even in this sales forecast, the categories of Conditional Automation and Highly Automated Driving are small enough to be difficult to distinguish.

Figure 3. Fleet penetration of Active Safety Systems

Figure 4. Sales penetration of Active Safety Systems

Figure 5. Sales penetration of automation features

Technical | Feature

This apparently slow progress into sales occurs despite even the medium forecast scenario using adoption progress estimates that are very much at the faster end of those seen for previous automotive technologies. This highlights that while the timing of first availability of technology is important and has a number of implications, it is likely to be some years beyond that before a technology is particularly prevalent.

3.3 Embedded Mobile Data Connectivity This forecast covers vehicles where the mobile data connectivity is embedded into the vehicle, such that there is no reliance on a tethered smartphone or similar.

This was a challenging area to forecast as almost all available evidence was for international and not local markets (Australia and New Zealand). This evidence gap was combined with an indication through consultation that the local markets may not be following the international pattern, but with limited quantification available of the difference.

To address this tension, the forecasts included in the original Future Vehicles 2030 edition used a very broad forecast range between scenarios, particularly given that this technology is well into adoption phases.

Figure 6. Original forecast for embedded mobile data connectivity

For the 2031 update, some additional analysis was able to be performed to provide a partial validation of the previously made forecast.

The forecast horizon was extended from 2030 to 2031 but otherwise no change was made.

The wide spread of scenarios was retained as some uncertainty remains, albeit with some reassurance that the forecasts appear appropriate.

3.4 Electric Vehicles This forecast covers Electric Vehicles (EVs) in which a battery is the primary energy source.

This includes vehicles with range extenders and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) but excludes milder forms of hybrid technology and hydrogen fuelcell vehicles.

As noted in Section 2.4, the evidence base for this forecast was centered on work by BITRE [6].

Sales of Electric Vehicles through 2020 tracked closely to these forecasts, although more recently released figures for 2021 suggest a potential acceleration towards the rapid adoption scenario.

This forecast is the one that leads to the greatest discussion of government policy and the impact on these forecasts. There is good evidence to confirm that government policy (such as EV subsidies) makes a difference to www.saea.com.au

Figure 7. Forecast for Electric Vehicle sales

adoption, e.g. analysis of international market adoption factors in [6]. There have also been recent announcements by some Australian state governments of targets for EV adoption that would sit slightly above (but close to) the rapid forecasts here.

In keeping with the forecasts being pure forecasts (see Section 1), the forecasting approach adopts an assumption of continuation of government action. This does not mean no further government action, but rather a continuation of the current trend of government action. With respect to Australia, this was explicitly assumed to mean “no significant new Australia-wide incentives for Electric Vehicles”.

If there were to be a change to the pattern of government action to support EVs, such as through a change of government, then this would be factored into a future forecast update.

3.5 Differences between Australia and New Zealand The base forecasts for both the original [4] and update [5] editions were for the Australian passenger vehicle fleet. New Zealand is a member of Austroads, and therefore a part of the project was to consider how uptake may be different in New Zealand.

Imports of used vehicles play a significant role in New Zealand; in recent years around 50% of the additions to the light vehicle fleet have been used vehicles [13]. Although the import of used vehicles has led to a higher average fleet age in New Zealand, it can also be a means by which technologies are introduced, such as the import of used Electric Vehicles.

It was therefore appropriate to consider differences on a technology-by-technology basis, for example: • Active Safety Systems are likely to see slower uptake in New Zealand than Australia.

Although used imports offer a potential adoption channel, the adoption rate in these used imports of a certain age may not be higher than for Australian new vehicles of equivalent age. Although some elements such as AEB may be prevalent in and possibly even mandated for used imports, the Active Safety System forecast covers not AEB but rather active Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) and Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC).

• Highly Automated Driving is likely to have slower uptake than Australia, with limited initial adoption through used import vehicles.

Although this may change over time, this is unlikely within the forecast period.

• Electric Vehicles are likely to see more rapid uptake than Australia as data is suggestive of buyers choosing used imports as an affordable entry into Electric Vehicles and the availability of sufficient supply from overseas.

3.6 Differences between Major Cities and Rural Areas Although this was an area of interest to Austroads members, only limited conclusions could be drawn as no specific data was available for the uptake of vehicle technologies into new vehicles by different geographical regions.

What was possible to explore using available data was the relative difference in the ages of vehicles between different geographic areas.

Figure 8 below shows that the newest vehicles are a larger proportion of the vehicle fleet in major cities than in regional and remote areas.

Figure 8. Proportion of registered passenger vehicles fleet that was manufactured within last five years

3.7 Differences for Light Commercial Vehicles The base forecast covers passenger vehicles, including cars and SUVs. Models such as the Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger and Mitsubishi Triton are popular vehicles in both Australia and New Zealand but fall instead within the light commercial vehicle category.

Figure 9. Fitment of key technologies to passenger and light commercial vehicles VTE | 29

Feature | Technical

Figure 9 shows that the highest fitment of key Active Safety System technologies in 2019 in Australia was on cars, followed by SUVs, then utilities (utes or light “trucks”) and vans. These figures are subject to some variability, as there is much less model diversity within utilities and vans than for cars and SUVs. This means that fitment to a key model (e.g. Toyota Hilux and HiAce) can lead to significant differences in results, as seen here between Adaptive Cruise Control and Lane Keep Assistance, with the latter becoming a standard fitment on some key models.

In general, however, the slower uptake of technologies in light commercial vehicles (utilities and vans) relative to passenger vehicles (cars and SUVs) is anticipated to continue, albeit in a manner more subject to decisions made for key vehicle makes and models.

3.8 Differences for Heavy Commercial Vehicles Heavy vehicles represent 3% of registered vehicles in Australia, however, they are vital to the transport task and account for just over 8% of total vehicle kilometers travelled on public roads [14]. Heavy vehicles play a similarly important role in New Zealand, making up about 4.5% of the fleet but around 8% of vehicle kilometers travelled.

Uptake of Active Safety Systems on heavy vehicles lags uptake on passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles. Looking at the top car models sold in Australia, 77% of sales are for models with standard Auto Emergency Braking (AEB). Across heavy vehicles this figure is only 6%, of which articulated trucks (at 23% of new sales) are the best equipped sub-fleet [14].

Subsequent to the publication of the original report, a mandate for AEB has been implemented in Australia, phasing in between 2023 and 2025. This mandate will increase fitment of this technology but does not change the overall pattern for lagging technology on heavy vehicles relative to light vehicles.

Nevertheless, while uptake of these early forms of automation appears slower in heavy vehicles than passenger vehicles, the potential benefits for heavy vehicles from more advanced automation technologies such as various forms of platooning may exceed those for passenger vehicles and encourage more rapid adoption.

4. Conclusion Australian and New Zealand vehicle fleets may be at the start of a period of change due to the emergence of Automated, Connected and Electric Vehicles as well as new models of vehicle ownership and use.

The forecasts commissioned by Austroads to explore the likely adoption of certain vehicle technologies within the vehicle fleets of 2030 in Australia and New Zealand have proven fit for purpose to inform its research programs and decision-making by member transport agencies.

In a fast-moving field, even the best forecasts can become outdated as the situation develops.

To address this, the forecasts have undergone the first of intended periodic reviews and been extended out to 2031. While many of the forecasts were updated in this process due to the availability of updated evidence artefacts, the 30 | June 2024

overall approach to forecasting remained sound and the extent of change within the updated forecasts was small.

The forecasts confirmed that the adoption of each of the technologies would take place over an extended period and that different technologies were at different stages of the adoption process. The methodology adopted for forecasting catered well for both these factors.

Technologies such as Active Safety Systems are well progressed in adoption and have already passed 30% of Australian new passenger vehicle sales and 10% penetration into the Australian passenger vehicle fleet. Electric Vehicle adoption is less well progressed in Australia but appear to be following a clear pattern and the differences to other advanced economies can be explained by the relatively smaller adoption incentives by Australian governments.

Highly Automated Driving is anticipated to feature in only a small number of vehicles within the forecast period (e.g. 2030-2031). Although this forecast differs from some previous estimates, many comparative forecasts have

been updated over recent years to (significantly) reduce that previous optimism.

The project also explored differences between Australia and New Zealand, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles and cities and regional areas.

To continue to maintain the relevance of the forecasts, the periodic update process will remain important. This update process should also reconsider regularly both the suitability of the method and the elements to be forecast. In the first update round, changes were made to some technology definitions to reflect market changes and one forecast was discontinued due to having lost some of its original relevance.

Acknowledgement Austroads is thanked for their support in undertaking this project and for the opportunity to publish this paper. The project itself could not have happened without the contribution of government and industry stakeholders, providing both critical review and insights and intelligence that were not publicly available.

References [1] Australian Government Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Forecasting uptake of driver assistance technologies in Australia, Research Report 153, 2021 [2] W La Morte, Behavioral Change Models: Diffusion of Innovation Theory, 2019 [3] Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Series 9309.0 - Motor Vehicle Census, 2019 [4] Austroads, Future Vehicles 2030, Report AP-R623-20, 2020 [5] 2019Austroads, Future Vehicles Forecasts Update 2031, Addendum to Future Vehicles 2030, Report AP-R654-21, 2021 [6] Australian Government Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Electric Vehicle Uptake: Modelling a Global Phenomenon, Research Report 151, [7] E-P. Dennis, Announced Deployment Timeline, Center for Automotive Research, 2019-2022 (ongoing updates) [8] Connected Places Catapult, Market Forecast for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles, 2021

[9] Transport Systems Catapult, Market Forecast for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles, 2017 [10] Australasian New Car Assessment Program (ANCAP) Analysis Report: Availability of Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) in Australia, 2019 [11] Austroads, Minimum Physical Infrastructure Standard for the Operation of Automated Driving Part B: Scenarios for Potential Availability and Usage of Different Levels and Types of Automated Driving, Research Report AP-R665B-22, 2022 [12] P. Bansal and K. Kockelman, “Forecasting Americans’ Long-term Adoption of Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Technologies”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 95, pp.49-63, 2017 [13] New Zealand Ministry of Transport (NZ MoT), Vehicle Fleet Statistics, 2019 [14] Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Cities and Regional Development (DITCRD) Reducing Heavy Vehicle Rear Impact Crashes: Autonomous Emergency Braking Regulation Impact Statement, 2019