https://www.oecd.org/economy/turkiye-economic-snapshot/
Making the economy more resilient 24 February 2023
2023 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF TÜRKIYE
Türkiye has experienced strong economic growth
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Real GDP 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 Türkiye OECD Index 2015Q1 = 100
Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
The tourism sector has rebounded to its pre-pandemic level
Source: Turkstat, "Tourism income, number of visitors and average expenditure per capita by months, 2012 - 2022".
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Tourism revenues Incoming tourists Index 2019 every month = 100
Inflation has soared
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Source: OECD (2022), OECD Monthly Economic Indicators (database); and Turkstat. -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Jan-1990 Jan-1992 Jan-1994 Jan-1996 Jan-1998 Jan-2000 Jan-2002 Jan-2004 Jan-2006 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016 Jan-2018 Jan-2020 Jan-2022 Producer Prices Index¹ Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index (OECD) Y-o-y % changes
1. Producer price index refers to domestic industrial activities.
The external position has weakened
Current account balance
Primary and secondary income
Source: OECD calculations based on Turkstat; and OECD (2022), Balance of Payments (database).
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-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3
Good and services
of GDP
Current account %
GDP growth is set to slow
OECD macroeconomic projections
Source: OECD calculations based on Turkstat; and OECD (2022), Balance of Payments (database).
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2022 2023 2024 Gross domestic product 5.3 3.0 3.4 Private consumption 15.2 4.1 3.4 Gross fixed capital formation 2.8 2.8 3.8 Exports 12.2 4.4 4.2 Imports 4.2 4.8 3.6 Unemployment rate 10.7 10.3 10.0 Consumer price index 72.3 44.6 42.1 Current account (% of GDP) -5.6 -3.8 -2.5
The decline
in
working
age population will weigh on potential growth
Contributions to potential output growth per capita
Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 Labour efficiency Employment Working age population Capital Potential growth (RHS) % % pts
Structural reforms can bolster resilience to shocks and make growth sustainable
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OECD
based on OECD Economics Department Long-term Model. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2030 2035 2040 Education reform Labour market reform Improving business regulation % points Cumulative difference from baseline GDP per capita (no policy change) scenario, by policy area
Source:
simulations
STRENGTHENING THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK
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Monetary policy needs to be tightened
Central banks' key policy rate
Percentage point change since 2021Q1
Note: The latest data refer to the policy rate on 2 December 2022.
Source: OECD Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics (MEI); BIS; and CBRT
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-10 0 10 20 30 40 TUR JPN IND EA KOR GBR ZAF USA NZL ISL MEX POL CZE COL CHL BRA HUN ARG % pts
Fiscal policy should become more prudent
Headline fiscal deficit
Note: Projected data in 2022.
Source: OECD (2022), OECD Monthly Economic Indicators (database); and Turkstat.
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-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % of GDP
PROMOTING OPEN COMPETITION AND EASING REGULATION
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There is ample room to promote open competition in product markets
Product market regulation indicator
Score, scale from 0 to 6 (most restrictive)
Source: OECD (2022), OECD 2018 Product Market Regulation database.
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 GBR DNK ESP DEU NLD SWE NOR AUS LVA EST CZE HUN ITA PRT FIN CHL OECD AUT JPN POL SVK CHE GRC FRA MEX BEL KOR CAN COL TUR CRI
Perceived corruption has worsened from an already high level
A. Corruption Perceptions Index
Scale: 0 (worst) to 100 (best), 2021
B. Evolution of "Control of Corruption"
Scale: -2.5 (higher) to 2.5 (lower corruption), 2021
Source: Transparency International; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators.
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0 20 40 60 80 100 MEX TUR COL GRC CZE ITA POL ESP PRT CHL FRA DEU DNK
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Türkiye OECD
CREATING MORE AND BETTER FORMAL JOBS
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The employment rate of women is very low
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (database).
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Employment rate, 15-64 year olds 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
By gender Women Men 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 TUR MEX GRC CHL ITA KOR ESP OECD POL FRA USA SVK LUX CZE PRT LVA AUT HUN JPN FIN GBR DEU EST DNK SWE NOR NZL NLD
Employment
% of labour force
B.
A.
rate of women, 2021
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (database).
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Only few women join the labour force
0 20 40 60 80 100 Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men 15 to 24 25 to 54 55 to 64 Total 2021 2008 %
Labour force participation in Türkiye by age cohort and gender, 2008 and 2021
High severance pay hampers job creation
Index of severance pay
Scale from 0 to 6 (most strict), 2019
20 years of job tenure
4 years of job tenure
9 months of job tenure
Note: Sub-component of employment protection regulation indicator.
Source: OECD Indicators of Employment Protection Database.
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 AUT FIN DEU ISL JPN NZL NOR SWE CHE USA AUS CAN CZE DNK EST ITA KOR LVA POL GRC HUN LTU LUX PRT SVK SVN BEL FRA IRL GBR CHL MEX NLD ESP COL TUR
Score
Job loss protection should shift to unemployment insurance but benefits are low
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in unemployment after one year, Share of previous-in-work income, 2021 or latest 0 20 40 60 80 100 TUR HUN SVK CZE GBR ISR KOR CAN LVA AUS LTU JPN NZL POL USA IRL OECD EST GRC SVN AUT FIN DEU ITA ISL SWE FRA NLD NOR CHE PRT ESP DNK LUX BEL %
Source: OECD SCOR database. Benefits
ALIGNING THE SUPPLY OF SKILLS WITH EVOLVING LABOUR MARKET NEEDS
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Unfilled vacancies have increased despite elevated unemployment
Number of total unfilled vacancies
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Source: İŞKUR (Turkish Employment Agency).
0 40000 80000 120000 160000 200000 240000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Educational attainment has improved but gaps remain
Men Women Men Women
Below upper secondary General upper secondary or post-secondary no-tertiary
Source: OECD Education at a Glance database.
Men Women Men Women
Vocational upper secondary or post-secondary no-tertiary
Tertiary
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-30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Highest diploma obtained by people aged 24-34
%
Türkiye (2010 or 2014)¹ Türkiye (2021) OECD (2021 or latest)
There is room to further increase educational outcomes
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OECD (2019), PISA Data Explorer. Mean PISA score in reading, mathematics and sciences 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Reading Türkiye OECD¹ 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Mathematics Türkiye OECD¹ 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Sciences Türkiye OECD¹
Source:
Key messages
Tighten monetary policy, including by increasing the main policy rate.
Gradually phased out foreign exchange-protected deposits.
Publish annual Fiscal Policy Reports, with short and longer-term projections and risk scenarios for liabilities.
Ease regulation in the licensing and permits system. Improve labour market prospects of women. Increase the provision and broaden the access to quality early childhood education. Shift social protection to a broader-based unemployment insurance. Ensure that statutory minimum wages are affordable for firms.
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For more information
https://www.oecd.org/economy/turkiye-economic-snapshot/ OECD
OECD Economics
Disclaimer: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
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THE EARTHQUAKE OF 6 FEBRUARY 2023
The OECD expresses deep sorrow at the enormous loss of life and offers condolences to all those affected by this tragedy. We stand ready to support Türkiye in providing policy support for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. Our thoughts are with all the people of Türkiye, and with the victims, their families, friends and colleagues at this difficult time.
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