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Poland Real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 0.9% in 2023 due to higher energy prices as a result of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, weaker domestic demand and a deteriorating external environment, before recovering to 2.4% in 2024. Inflation should peak in early 2023 but is likely to remain above target by the end of 2024. Monetary policy should continue to tighten to prevent persistently high inflation. Fiscal policy support should be better targeted towards vulnerable households and supporting refugees and needs to avoid adding to inflationary pressure. In the medium term, greater decarbonisation and digitalisation, underpinned by policies to improve skills, would enhance energy security and lead to greener and stronger economic growth. The economy is slowing as a result of higher energy prices Output in the second quarter of 2022 was only 0.3% higher than in the final quarter of 2021, amid high volatility. Private consumption grew, partly boosted by Ukrainian refugee spending and by the recovery from the pandemic, but investment slowed sharply. Nonetheless labour markets remain robust and wage growth has increased. Annual headline consumer price inflation rose to 15.7% in September, pushed up by higher energy and food prices, and core inflation reached 11.5%. Consumer and business confidence have continued to weaken and industrial production growth has slowed.
Poland
1. Consumer price index excluding food and energy. Source: Eurostat, European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys; and OECD Economic Outlook 112 database. StatLink 2 https://stat.link/5jl27s
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2022 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2022