Poland projection note on OECD Economic Outlook November 2023

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Poland Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.4% in 2023 as high inflation and restrictive monetary policy weaken domestic demand. Growth should recover to 2.6% in 2024 and pick up to 2.9% in 2025 as consumption rebounds and is accompanied by robust investment, supported by EU Recovery and Resilience funds. Headline inflation has halved over 2023 but core inflation is declining more slowly due to a robust labour market. Inflation is projected to reach 3.4% by the end of 2025. Persistent inflation or additional fiscal spending pose upside risks to inflation, while an escalation of the war in Ukraine could lower growth. Monetary policy should ease only gradually given the risk of inflation persistence and the uncertainty in the outlook. Fiscal consolidation is needed to help reduce inflation and put the public finances on a more prudent path, despite significant spending pressures. In the medium-term, accelerated decarbonisation and digitalisation, supported by policies to improve skills, would raise energy security and lead to greener and stronger economic growth. The domestic economy has been subdued in 2023 The economy has remained subdued throughout most of 2023. Private consumption growth has been low as the cost of credit remained high. Despite declines in mortgages and housing construction, total investment growth has remained robust. Since the summer, retail sales have continued to increase. Consumer confidence rose above its long-run average in October. However, the PMI and other business confidence surveys suggest further weakness in manufacturing. The labour market remains resilient, as unemployment held at 2.8% in September, although wage growth has eased. Having peaked in February this year, headline inflation fell to 6.6% in October due to slowing food and energy price growth. Core inflation has declined but remains high at 8.1%.

Poland

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 114 database; and Statistics Poland. StatLink 2 https://stat.link/mus5jt

OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2023


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Poland projection note on OECD Economic Outlook November 2023 by OECD - Issuu