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GDP per capita, annualised growth between 2012 and 2023
The more restrictive monetary policy since 2023 has helped reduce high inflation
Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database); Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye; and Bank for
Settlements.
Robust economic growth is projected to continue
Real GDP growth, %
Consumer price inflation, %
Government fiscal balance, % of GDP
Note: Projections for 2025 and 2026 based on the update of OECD Economic Outlook 116 in the Interim Economic Outlook of March 2025.
Source: OECD (2025), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
Improving public finances
The fiscal position is set to tighten after the relatively large deficits of 2023 and 2024
Earthquake-related spending
Note: The shaded area refers to projected data. OECD calculations on earthquake-related spending over 2023-26 based on the reports “Inflation Report 2024-IV” and “Medium Term Program (2025-2027)”.
Source: OECD (2024), OECD Economic Outlook 116 database; Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Inflation Report 2024 - IV (8 November 2024); and Presidency of Strategy and Budget and Ministry of Treasury and Finance, Medium Term Program (2025-2027).
Reforming the pension system would reduce spending pressures
Note: The net replacement rate is defined as the individual net pension entitlement divided by net pre-retirement earnings, taking account of personal income taxes and social security contributions paid by workers and pensioners.
Source: OECD (2023), Pensions at a Glance 2023: OECD and G20 Indicators.
Limiting reduced rates for the value -added tax would make revenue collection more efficient
Value-added tax (VAT) revenue ratio, 2022
Note: The value-added tax ratio measures the extent to which a VAT regime collects the VAT on the natural base of the tax, i.e. on final consumption expenditure. It is calculated as total government revenues from VAT divided by the product of the VAT standard rate and final consumption expenditure. The OECD aggregate refers to the unweighted average of 35 OECD countries.
Source: OECD (2024), OECD Tax Statistics, OECD Revenue Statistics; and OECD National Accounts Database.
Boosting innovation and competitiveness
Boosting productivity remains a priority
Note: Calculations based on OECD Economic Outlook 116 database. Data are converted in USD at 2021 purchasing power parities. The OECD aggregate refers to the unweighted average of countries shown.
Source: OECD (2024), OECD Economic Outlook 116 database.
Easing product market regulations would enhance business dynamism further
Overall economy-wide Product Market Regulation (PMR) indicator
Scale from 0 to 6
Note: The latest update of the database on PMR indicators is from January 2025. The scale ranges from 0 (most competition-friendly regulatory set-up) to 6 (least competition-friendly regulatory set-up).
Source: OECD Product Market Regulation database.
More collaboration between businesses and researchers would boost productivity
Upskilling the labour force would raise productivity and competitiveness
Note: Higher education graduates cover those with bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral or equivalent degrees. ICT: Information and Communication Technology.
Enhancing opportunities for women in the labour market
Employment of women can increase further
Higher spending on early childhood education and care would support female employment
Enrolment rates in early childhood education and care services and primary education programmes, 3-5 year-olds, 2022
Higher child benefits would help alleviate childcare affordability challenges
Note: “Household with children” refers to one-earner married couple with two children. “Household without children” refers to a single individual without children. The take-home pay is computed for earners at the average wage.
Source: OECD (2024), Taxing Wages.
Steps towards greening the economy
Ambitious action is needed to reach the net-zero emissions target for 2053
Source: OECD (2024), Air & GHG emissions database; Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change (2024), 2053 Long Term Climate Strategy; and IMF (2024), Climate Change Indicators Dashboard.
Carbon pricing could be higher
Source: OECD (2024), OECD Net effective carbon rates (database).
Improved forest management would reduce emissions and support adaptation
Forest exposure to wildfires, 2022
Note: Forest exposure refers to the share of tree-covered areas exposed to very high or extreme wildfire danger for more than three consecutive days. OECD countries with a level of 0% have been excluded from the figure.
Source: OECD (2024), OECD Environment Statistics (database).
Main messages
Macro
Productivity
Maintain the prudent macroeconomic policy mix until inflation is under control.
Reform the pension system and enhance the efficiency of tax collection.
Labour
Boost long-term productivity by easing business regulations, facilitating the adoption and diffusion of new technologies in firms, and upskilling the labour force.
Green
Reduce barriers to female employment, including by expanding affordable early childhood education and care.
Facilitate achieving the 2053 net-zero emissions target by increasing the effective price of carbon and transitioning away from the use of coal in energy supply.
https://oe.cd/turkiye
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