2
Tunisia Economic growth is projected to strengthen in 2019 and 2020, driven by investment as companies in some sectors, such as the manufacturing industry and information and communications technologies, take advantage of the new law on start-ups. Slower euro area growth will weigh on exports. Inflation is expected to decline as the impact of the tax increases in 2018 runs its course, but it will remain high. The large current account deficit is expected to improve slightly as tourism returns to normal. Unemployment will fall slightly. The public deficit is expected to decrease as a result of constraints on the government wage bill but, given the high level of public debt, subsidy reforms and better targeting of social programmes are necessary to ensure the sustainability of public finances. Real interest rates are moderately positive. Monetary policy will need to focus on anchoring inflation expectations. The creation of quality jobs, by simplifying the business environment, remains a priority. Growth is strengthening slowly Industrial output continued to decline at the start of 2019, due mainly to the fall in the production of crude oil and natural gas, and in the agri-food industry. However, there was an upturn in the production of phosphates and derivated products in the first quarter of 2019, and an increase in the number of industrial companies. Foreign direct investments increased in 2018, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The unemployment rate remains high. In 2018, the Tunisian economy created fewer jobs than in 2017.
Tunisia 1 Industrial production has fallen
Inflation has stabilised at a high level
3-month moving average Index Jan2015 = 100 120 ← Total 118 ← Manufacturing 116 Mining → 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 2015 2016
2017
Index Jan2015 = 100 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2018
Y-o-y % changes 10
Non-administered prices Administered prices
9
Total
8 7 6
0
5 4 3 2 1 2015
2016
2017
2018
0
Source: National Institute of Statistics.
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2019 ISSUE 1: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2019