Another striking feature of the emerging trade and environment context is that public and private stakeholders and decision makers are embracing ideas promoted by a multiplicity of initiatives at the sustainability-trade interface - on the carbon transition and decarbonisation, the circular economy, the green economy, green finance and investment, and sustainable global value chains. On the ground, there has been a proliferation of practical trade-environment efforts from a growing range of business and civil society groups, including public-private partnerships, corporate responsibility initiatives, and voluntary standards and labels using an array of sustainability criteria, carried by increasingly well informed consumers and more environment savvy businesses. These initiatives are contributing to widening the consensus that both trade and environment policies are needed to boost sustainable trade and promote innovation in and markets for sustainable goods, services, technologies and business models, with global trade in EGS projected to reach USD 3 000 billion in 2020, growing to as much as to USD 12 000 billion in 2030. At times, the slow pace of progress in the international governance of trade and environment appears out of step with the dynamism of these initiatives. In the trade and environment community, there is widespread acknowledgement that trade policies have successfully moved from the accommodation of environmental concerns towards a deeper understanding that sustainability is central to economic choices. Yet there is an equally widespread sense that the environment-trade agenda has become more complex, dispersed and specialised. Where most of the JWPTE’s existence has been defined by economic convergence, multilateral trade agreements, and ever larger and more integrated regional trading blocs, the current wave of protectionism and bilateralism risks creating a more fragmented global trading system — a system characterised by a complex web of concessions and barriers that could make cross-border trade more unpredictable and harder to navigate in the years ahead. There is also a consensus that some longstanding vexed environment-trade issues remain unresolved and that lack of progress on these issues is holding back international cooperation and policymaking. But there is also hope that the stronger environmental agenda that is likely to emerge in coming years can contribute to restoring faith in multilateralism as well as promoting the trade policies that are central to achieving important environmental outcomes.
The newfound consensus on emerging trade and environment issues will be tested by the considerable uncertainty produced by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis. While this crisis may not in itself result in a major restructuring of global trade, its impact on economic activity and trade volumes will be a major feature of the global economy lasting well into the early years of the current decade. In the same way that international cooperation is essential to addressing the global crisis, so too will it be central to accelerating recovery worldwide. There are growing calls for pressing environmental considerations to be an integral part of this effort, ensuring that the post-COVID recovery integrates inclusiveness with climate and biodiversity concerns (OECD, 2020[103]). Opportunities for greening the recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis were explored in a recent OECD Environment Working Paper that draws on lessons from the green stimulus packages introduced in the wake of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis (Agrawala, Dussaux and Monti, 2020[104]). The paper explores how green recovery packages could be tailored to the specificities of the COVID-19 crisis, with an emphasis on the nexus between public health and environment, and greater attention to social and distributional consequences. An important additional dimension to consider is the possible distortionary trade effects of green stimulus measures, at a time when the free flow of goods and services is ever more important (OECD, 2020[105]).
POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS AND OPTIONS FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS A major lesson of the past twelve years is the imperative need for data, analysis and policy proposals in the area of trade and the environment. Growing public and policy attention to trade and environment issues will require solid data, accessible information, and reliable analysis. Much progress has been made and many research issues have been addressed, generating new avenues for research: as analysis deepens, areas where knowledge is lacking become more evident and new options for policy exploration open up, with guidance provided by the JWPTE’s parent Committees. This momentum is checked against a changing context, particularly at a time when the trade and environment nexus is in the throes of a major transformation. Another take-away of this retrospective of the JWPTE’s work is that analytical advances are only possible
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