Estonia projection note OECD Economic Outlook November 2023

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Estonia Growth should return in 2024 but will remain subdued at 0.6%, while the labour market is expected to deteriorate. In 2025, growth should reach 2.5% as the recovery in consumption picks up. Inflation has come down substantially, but planned tax increases will bring a temporary spike at the beginning of 2024. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Tighter euro area monetary policy has contributed to a tightening of financial conditions and a weakening of the housing market. Fiscal consolidation is underway but needs to be carefully managed. In 2025, changes to the personal income tax parameters should ease the pressure on middle- and high-income households, while a long overdue vehicle tax can provide incentives for the green transition. Any further consolidation in the years ahead should protect low-income households and be guided by effective expenditure reviews. The economy remains in recession Economic growth was weaker than expected this year, with a broad-based contraction of real GDP by 0.19% in the third quarter. Manufacturing was affected by supply problems and close ties to the Nordic markets, where demand for Estonian building products faltered. Higher borrowing costs and inflation have taken a toll on consumption and private investment, as the majority of loans have a variable interest rate. The strong labour market started to weaken. Nevertheless, continued withdrawal of second pillar pension savings and a large inflow of Ukraine migrants have provided a cushion to domestic demand. Business and consumer surveys point to weak confidence.

Estonia

1. Harmonised index of consumer prices excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. Source: European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN); and OECD Economic Outlook 114 database. StatLink 2 https://stat.link/fthzg3

OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2023


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