Conspiracy Chaos

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS

Conspiracy Chaos

Misinformation and disinformation may paralyse democracy POSSIBLE 2030-2050 DISRUPTION Persistent, widespread and highly persuasive misinformation campaigns have made rational societal debate almost impossible. Compelling conspiracy theories drastically change the public’s conception of truth, and a growing lack of trust in research and science creates fertile ground for malicious as well as unintentional actors to optimize conspiracy messages to thrive under social media algorithms. Technologies such as deep fakes and language processors are used to exponentially increase the quantity and quality of misinformation and disinformation, overwhelming the protections put in place by democratic societies. Opponents of net zero policies deploy misinformation campaigns that integrate powerful information and communications technologies.

CONTEXT Misinformation and disinformation are a growing problem in recent years drawing the attention of the highest levels of authority within governments and platform companies. It is unclear whether measures being taken to combat the spread of mis- and disinformation will be sufficient to offset new technological developments in AI, natural language processing and virtual reality that could increase the salience and persuasiveness of conspiracy theories.

A T E B

Source: OECD Strategic Foresight Unit

Never have human societies known so much about mitigating the dangers they face but agreed so little about what they collectively know. – Dan M. Kahan, Yale Law School This series is part of the Strategic Foresight for Successful Net-Zero Transitions toolkit which assists governments and organisations to develop forward-looking, adaptive and future-ready strategies for net-zero emission transitions.

Each part of the series showcases one “Possible Disruption” during the 2030-2050 period that could generate new opportunities or challenges for public policy. Each disruption was developed with foresight, academic and policy experts and represents a plausible extreme in a rapidly changing and uncertain future.

SIGNAL Language processors capable of autonomously generating convincing content at an unprecedented scale and deep fake technology raise the risk of widespread disinformation.

SIGNAL Existing conspiracy theories have deployed gamification techniques to maximize adherence and contributed to disruptive protests and attacks on infrastructure such as 5G towers.

SIGNAL As few as a dozen actors produced nearly two-thirds of Covid-19 misinformation and disinformation on social media platforms with significant public health consequences.

POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS Large-scale vested interests could flood the information ecosystem with mis- and disinformation. The resulting conspiracy theories could undermine net-zero strategies by causing individuals to believe falsehoods about the dangers of environmentally friendly products, such as electric vehicles, smart appliances or lab-grown protein. The potential refusal of certain citizens to adopt new products could limit the scaling down or transitioning of related high-emitting legacy industries, such as gas stations and cattle farming.

Conspiracy theories could pollute the information ecosystem to such an extent that even the most well-meaning and informed citizens are unsure how to engage in politics. Radicalising conspiracy theories could lead to the destruction of green infrastructure and attacks on public figures pushing for climate action. They could also lead to the election of political figures who become even more militantly opposed to evidence-based climate policies. If this occurred, conspiracy theories could undermine international agreements and result in underinvestment in net-zero transitions.

A T E B

New bodies emerge for fact-checking, verification, and information consumption. Corporate and government entities might hire firms specialising in mis- and disinformation auditing or developing information “prebunking” and debunking strategies for policy implementation in order to ensure citizen trust and uptake.

QUESTIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS

POLICY RESPONSES

•

What are preemptive strategies for early detection and mitigation of misinformation and disinformation?

•

What behavioral insights might assist with reducing vulnerability to mis- and disinformation?

•

Where are there opportunities to promote shared evidence-based as a foundation for rational policy debates?

•

Who might serve as trusted information sources?

Research shows that “prebunking ” is easier than debunking. Finland has started building resistance to conspiratorial thinking at a young age. In 2016, Finland introduced a cross-subject information literacy and critical thinking component to primary and secondary school curriculums, with a focus on the online and social media kids obtain their news from.

Students learn to factcheck, interpret and evaluate information. This curriculum is part of a broad strategy that contributes to Finland’s top ranking in an index measuring resistance to fake news.

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT FOR SUCCESSFUL NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight | foresight@oecd.org