Degrees of Doubt / Sean Connely and Andy Wisniewski

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Sean Connelly, Andy Wisniewski

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The Oceanic Turn: Sean Connelly, Andy Wisniewski Spring 2014 - Harvard Graduate School of Design - ADV 0913200 - Term Project Copyright: Scanned texts and source references compiled in this booklet are intended for single-use academic purpose only, according to the Harvard University Fair Use Guidelines & Course Reader Copyright Guidelines. No part of this booklet may be copied, reproduced, republished, uploaded, posted, transmitted or distributed in any way for commercial purposes. All files are copyright to their respective authors and/or publishers. All other content is Š2013-14 Harvard Graduate School of Design, The President & Fellows of Harvard College.


The Ocean As Gauge. With over 11,000 weather sensors across Earth’s surface, land and sea, we can access the weather any place, anytime. Radios, LCD screens, and retina displays guarantee access to a stream of weather data that renders the planet seemingly more predictable and dependable. Forecasting is woven tightly into the fabric of everyday contemporary life. Moisture, temperature, pressure, salinity, and sea surface heights are as much a part of our daily infrastructure as buildings, roads, and utilities. While, the increasing technical resolution of Earth imaging systems have given us the insight to better understand our planet as a multi-dimensional, complex system, in these deeper dimensions we also realize that we never had nor will gain, control. To protect ourselves from the outside we have turned what was outside, inside. Our smart phones are shining replicas of our interiorized world. Of interfaces stripped of geography, turned fonts, numbers, cartoon dots, drops, and swirls. In these degrees of doubt of everything we have ever known, we venture to confront the changing patterns of our planet. We will look into the expanding array of weather sensors deployed across the ocean, our last wild frontier. Perhaps, to find our ocean is already one giant weather station.

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Is the ocea weather


an a giant station?

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JFK Address at U.N. General Assembly, 25 September 1961


“We shall propose further cooperative efforts between all nations in weather prediction and eventually in weather control... “New research, technical assistance and pilot projects can unlock the wealth of less developed lands and untapped waters.”

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A meteorologist prepares one of nine airport terminal forecasts issued each day as part of the National Weather Service. (Credit: NOAA)


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Early instruments for measuring moisture, temperature, and pressure.


Early methods for recording weather, by Francis Galton, 1863. (Credit: Historic Maps Collection) 7


A weather box kite to read temperature, wind velocity, pressure, altitude, and time. (Credit: NOAA)


Early 1920s balloon and radiosonde launch. (Credit: NOAA) 9



Kite and balloon stations in the United States, 1925. (Credit: NOAA National Weather Service) 11


A German wartime buoy for launching in the Arctic Ocean, Norway, September, 1944 (Credit: Arctic Archive, Franz Selinger)


Map of german wartime buoy in the North Atlantic, 1942 - 1943 (Credit: Arctic Archive, Franz Selinger) 13


This is the boundary of one particular ocean weather station. Thirteen of these outlined areas were deployed across the Pacific and Atlantic between 1940 and 1980.


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This is the size of Manhattan...


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Location of ocean weather stations, 1940 - 1980. (Image adapted from United States Coast Guard)


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The rise in quantity of the global drifter array across the world. (Credit: NOAA) 23


The number of NOAA landbased weather stations has shrunk from 6,000 to 1,500...

The U.S. Climate Reference Network consists of 114 stations, including this one in Tucson, Ariz. (Courtesy NOAA)


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Yet, the data record for Earth surface temperatures has grown due to increased collection of ocean-based data.

The first North Sea deployment of a floating LiDAR system funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Envi足ronment. (Courtesy Fraunhofer IWES) 27


Surface weather buoy before deployment. (Credit NASA)


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A meteorologist prepares one of nine airport terminal forecasts issued each day as part of the National Weather Service. (Credit: NOAA)


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President Obama at Second Inagural Address, 21 January 2013


“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations... Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms.�

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Global Drifter Array World Count: 1250 Measurement Depth: 15m

(Credit: NOAA)


Argo Float Array World Count: 3560 Measurement Depth: 2000m

(Credit: Argo) 35


Operational cycle of the Argo Float and sample sectional sea temperature measurements. (Credit: Argo)


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Earth Observation System

The Global Observing System, providing information about the Earth’s climate. (Credit: World Meteorological Organization.)


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Float #4

Argo drift path of float #4900159. (Courtesy WHOI)


4900159

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Average Argo float coverage 2008 to 2014. (Credit WHOI)


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William Daley, former commerce secretary testimony to Congress (1998).


“Weather is not just an environmental issue; it is a major economic factor. At least $1 trillion of our economy is weathersensitive.�

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Argo profile data for temperature, float #4900159. (Courtesy WHOI)


Perceived economic benefits of advanced weather forecasting. (Credit: Weather Trends International) 49


Density of active Argo floats owned/operated by the United States.


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Density of active Argo floats owned/operated by Australia.


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Density of active Argo floats owned/operated by Japan.


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Density of active Argo floats owned/operated by Brazil.


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Who Owns th


he Weather?

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Land-based weather stations (1800-2013), global drift array (1979-2013), and Argo float array (2000 - 2013). (Credit: NOAA, ARGO) 61



Land-based weather stations (1800-2013), global drift array (1979-2013), and Argo float array (2000 - 2013). (Credit: NOAA, ARGO) 63



Land-based weather stations (1800-2013), global drift array (1979-2013), and Argo float array (2000 - 2013). (Credit: NOAA, ARGO) 65



Land-based weather stations (1800-2013), global drift array (1979-2013), and Argo float array (2000 - 2013). (Credit: NOAA, ARGO) 67



Land-based weather stations (1800-2013), global drift array (1979-2013), and Argo float array (2000 - 2013). (Credit: NOAA, ARGO) 69


Nicolas Cage in The Weatherman


“The assertion that something has temporarily failed is of course a logical correlate to the assumption that it is usually functioning properly.�

John May in Infrastructuralism: The pathology of negative externalities 71


Nicole Kidman in To Die For.


“Because we spend our life indoors – like animals in a zoo – we are obsessed with the weather: 40 percent of all TV consists of presenters of lesser attractiveness gesturing helplessly in front of windswept formations, through which you recognize, sometimes your own destination / current position.”

Text adapted from Junkspace, by Rem Koolhaaus 73


Raquel Welch, as Raquel Tejada, the “Sun-up Weather Girl” (1960) Courtesy KFMB.


“Conceptually, each monitor, each TV screen is a substitute for a window; real life is inside while cyberspace has become the great outdoors...”

Text adapted from Junkspace, by Rem Koolhaaus 75


The Patron Goddesses of the Layabout (2005) by Paul Robert.


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Humans invented the concept of the weather to understand and predict the wild phenomena of the outside world. We needed a way to protect ourselves from its extremes, so we named “it� atmosphere, nothing more than a ball of vapor. We developed an ability to forecast the future behavior of this atmosphere, and called it weather. We sought to replace fear, wonder, and awe with a produced sense of confidence, certainty, and control. Instead, we got change and doubt.


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