Defence and Security Alert Magazine (DSA) October 2017 Edition

150 The First and Only ISO 9001:2015 Certified Defence and Security Magazine in India

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air force Special

October 2017

Volume 9 issue 01

editor’s note

DSA is as much yours,

as it is ours!

M

arshall of the Air Force Arjan Singh is now in a celestial orbit.

His uniform fit to adorn a museum, for that is what he has been an icon, the ultimate air warrior and the quintessential gentleman. Despite the five stars that adorned his car and were displayed on his collar, and he remained a very humble down to earth human being. Simply happy to share another one of his unimpeachable anecdotes.

His passing on is not simply a loss for the Air Force but for the country as a whole. It isn’t merely the passing of a Marshall of the Air Force but a gentleman of the highest order. They don’t make men like him anymore.

operationally required minimum levels. The Air Force is constantly in the news over its dwindling numbers of its squadrons.

It is a loss that the Air Force, of course, will feel the most. As in his departure is also a deep loss of leadership for the Air Force.

He was deeply involved with the Air Force from its earliest days to its current state. And the current state is not something that the service is particularly happy or proud about. The crisis is all about numbers and the sharp decline from optimum levels. Or even

Then a lot of the blame does also lie with the Air Force and its rather erratic policies on equipment upgradation, it’s constantly shifting doctrinal positions and so on. The Air Force is now a multi-national service in terms of the country of origin of its flying machines. It is unlikely that any other Air Force would have such a variety of nations supplying its equipment. That is

It needn’t have been so dire had the warning signals they picked up earlier on and the signs read in time. Some of the blame certainly does lie with the functioning and structure of the Ministry of Defence and it’s reluctant sanctioning of decisions. After which comes the tricky part of gaining financial sanctions. That is another hurdle altogether and one that adds unnecessary heartburn, angst, and years to a programme. By which time technologies change and the security scenarios too evolve. Thus making purchases play catch up all over again.

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not kudos for its diplomacy but simply a logistical nightmare for any quarter master.

Much is made about the safety record and accident rates in the Air Force, when in fact, some of the later aircraft are victims of shoddy workmanship at the machining stage. There is no hiding the fact that an aircraft supplier has been lax in terms of safety standards and as a result, precious lives are lost and crores worth of equipment vanish in no time. The Indian private sector has the machining standards available to assemble complex aircraft and must be encouraged to do so. Not only does that spread technological expertise but it also improves quality, both of which the country desperately needs.

Greater production capacity will also help in the faster induction of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and thus, finally we will be able to overcome the headache shortage of numbers.

Manvendra Singh

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publisher’s view

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

Volume 9 | Issue 01 | October 2017 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and ceo Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editorial Editor-in-Chief Manvendra Singh Deputy Editor Diana Mehra General Manager Kavita Karki Manager- Sales & Marketing Vishal Kishore Corporate Communications Natasha Creative Senior Graphic Designer Alka Sharma Representative (J&K) Salil Sharma Correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic Production Dilshad and Dabeer

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Webmaster Sundar Rawat

he journey of DSA was triggered in October 2009 after the Mumbai blasts in November 2007.

Those were dismal times when the nation perceived several glaring inadequacies in its defences.

The idea of the Defence and Security Alert magazine grew out of that morass with a very firm desire to make the nation aware and alert to existential threats from across its multi-dimensional frontiers on the one hand and the dangers posed

by Left Wing Extremism and foreign-inspired insurgencies on the other.

IT Operations Sonia Shaw Abhishek Bhargava Photographer Subhash Circulation and Distribution Prem Kumar Legal Advisor Deepak Gupta E-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org Editorial and Corporate Office Prabhat Prakashan Tower 4/19, Asaf Ali Road New Delhi-110002 (India) +91-011-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999 info@dsalert.org | www.dsalert.org

As a responsible media house, DSA was established by my dear friend Manvendra Singh, our Editor-in-Chief and myself to bring more awareness among citizens.

For eight consecutive years, DSA has published well researched and articulated contents along with interactions with eminent Chiefs of all the three Armed Forces and many DGs of various para-military forces and today, we can say that DSA has achieved a special ranking in the domain of Defence and Security, not only in India but also globally and our coverage of the global issues has been very well noticed.

Disclaimer All rights reserved. Reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. Opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and/or editors. All disputes are subject to jurisdiction of Delhi Courts.

Defence and Security Alert is printed, published and owned by Pawan Agrawal and printed at Graphic World, 1686, Kucha Dakhini Rai, Daryaganj, New Delhi-110002 and published at 4/19, Asaf Ali Road, New Delhi (India).

Editor: Manvendra Singh

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Journey Through Contemporary History

Our inaugural edition was focused on the alarming situation in the Naxal areas in the country and team DSA had cautioned about the upcoming threats from the Naxalite groups in the coming years. But unfortunately the then government did not take it very seriously and we lost hundreds of our security personnel in various attacks in the past few years.

What is acutely symptomatic of the current world situation is that largely as a blowback to the decades of policies of regime change around the globe, there are millions of ‘internally displaced’ persons and an equal number of those who have tried to seek refuge ironically in the very nations that had disrupted their lives in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and some remnants of the former Soviet Union and laid the seedbed for the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). America itself is in the throes of a racial backlash.

Geopolitics is now topsy-turvy.

Russia is drifting towards Pakistan and America towards India. The threatened ‘two-and-a-half front war’ on the subcontinent is now a palpable presence and the Chinese are juggling with the possibility of more Doklams even as its ally

Pakistan continues to use terror as State policy. In the Indo-Pacific region, nuclear war could erupt between the US and North Korea.

On the strategic issue of selfreliance in military hardware, the current government when it came in power in 2014 announced the Make in India policy in Defence with great pomp and show. It gave the assurances to the multi-national and Indian companies and the MSMEs in Defence and Security that all the pending procurements will be cleared very soon and their business will grow a a consequence.

In the same year, the revision of the DPP was also announced. But unfortunately nothing has happened so far. The government had been beating the drum but ground realities are very different from tall claims. The Make In India policy is, more and more, taking on the contours of the ‘licenced production’ of obsolescent military equipment of yester years – the 155 mm light howitzers and the offer of shifting the F-16 production line to India.

The surgical strikes at the terrorist base camps in September 2016 were ‘one of its own kind’ for the first time by the Indian Army. But that has not deterred Pakistan from launching

October 2017

crossborder terrorist attacks. A large number of casualties have taken place in J&K in the past one year.

The security ecosystem is gridlocked by government failure to dispel the fear of future retribution it sowed at the time of the Bofors crisis that the bureaucracy does not want to take a risk and buck the ‘single vendor syndrome’. There has been no change for the better over the past eight years of our existence. Only announcements have been made by our politicians which have actually now proved to be as fake as their political ‘jumlas’ and we all know that National Security can never be comprehensively managed by such ‘jumlas’ but by a very clear road map.

I must record my highest appreciation for our contributors. The current team DSA has made tremendous contribution in the production and stylisation of the magazine.

I am overwhelmed by their efforts and dedication.

Jai Hind!

Pawan Agrawal

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contents

An ISO 9001:2015 Certified Magazine

Winning The Sky Team DSA

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New Delhi Victim Of China Air Marshal Dhiraj Kukreja (Retd)

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Readiness For War Two-Front Scenario Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retd)

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Bharat Electronics Ltd Heart Of Indigenisation M V Gowtama

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During Peacetime And Natural Calamities Air Marshal BK Pandey (Retd)

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Regaining The High Ground In Counter-terrorism Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

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Terror Financing Emerging Paradigms Balasubramaniyan Viswanathan

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Be The Smart Enemy Arjun Subramanian P

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Effect Of Terrorism In India Amit Cowshish

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Unstinted Bravery The Hero From Arunachal Aarti Kapur Singh

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DSA's most heartfelt condolences on the demise of Marshal of the Indian Air Force, Arjan Singh. We offer our prayers for his soul to rest in peace just as we are strengthened by the fond memories of the man who served India with the highest valour.

interview

Winning the Sky

Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa is addressing the concerns within the Indian Air Force head-on. He has also become the first Indian Air Force Chief to write personal letters to officers

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he IAF is functioning under the aegis of Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa and the Air Chief is known for addressing issues ruthlessly without any delay. Amidst concerns of rising tensions on the borders, the Air Chief has started writing personal letters to his officers to be prepared for war. He is also taking matters like unprofessionalism and physical or sexual harassement in the Force within the purview for elimination.

Defence and Security Alert: With India emerging as a regional power and aspiring to maintain a global might, what is the chief responsibility of the Indian Air Force to aid the country in achieving the targets?

Chief of Air Staff: The Indian Air Force is planning its acquisitions according to a deliberate modernising schedule, designed to meet the evolving security requirements.

The planned

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future acquisitions of the IAF are aimed at improving the offensive and defensive capacity on both fronts. These are being factored into the Air Force and joint doctrines. The fighter air craft strength is planned to be enhanced to 42 squadrons in a phased manner. Force multipliers are planned to be integral part of future conflict. Deployment strategies and training are also evolving to further enhance our capabilities. Towards this, infrastructure is being developed in all the sectors. In the future, the IAF will have adequate strategic reach to address security threats, peace time military tasks, counter-insurgencies, anti-terrorist actions and international obligations as a major power. The IAF is alive of the changing global and regional strategic environment.

DSA: Considering that joint exercises are quite essential in building international relations and security relations, which joint exercises are

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Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, PVSM AVSM YSM VM ADC

interview

Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa during the Air Force Day parade

particularly helping India to advance its fleet and technology?

DSA: What are the plans conceived by the IAF to aid the indigenisation drive?

of the indigenously produced LCA has commenced and the first squadron of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) has been formed.

We have inducted the first DRDO developed Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft this year. Development of the indigenous LCA Mk1A, LCH, Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) (India), AMCA and RPA is also underway. The case for the AVRO replacement aircraft and the CIWS are also being progressed following the ‘Make in India’ route.

CAS: Indigenisation is one of the Key Result Area of the IAF and all our modernisation plans are being pursued with an aim to give impetus to indigenisation and to beef up the defence manufacturing base. While the indigenously designed ALH has already been inducted, induction

The IAF has also inducted several indigenously developed radars and other modern radars are also under development.

Electronic Warfare systems are also being designed and developed in the country. Under the ‘Make’ procedure of the

CAS: The IAF has undertaken several Joint Air Exercises with Air Forces of advanced countries including the USA, Russia, the UK, France, South Africa, the UAE, Singapore, Oman, Thailand, etc. The IAF accrues immense training values out of these exercises.

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DPP-2016 some of the projects which are in progress are Chaffs & Flares, Infrared Search and Track, ammunitions and fuses for bombs.

As an outreach programme for indigenisation, six seminars on indigenisation have been conducted.

The IAF is identifying the MSMEs capable of establishing Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities for some of its military aviation equipment. Further, the IAF is also undertaking upgradation of its existing assets through indigenous sources. The upgrade of the MiG-29 aircraft is being carried out by the IAF’s Base Repair Depot while the Jaguar and the Mirage 2000 aircraft are being upgraded by HAL. The digitisation of Pechora fleet and the upgrade of An-32

are also planned indigenous sources.

through

DSA: In the wake of recent tensions with Pakistan and China, what would be a formidable strategy to counter their ploy via air?

CAS: The IAF is modernising its fleet to increase its combat potential. The IAF has adequate combat experience, professional and well trained human resource pool with enormous international exposure. Today, we are a reckonable aerospace force, capable of thwarting any inimical designs by adversaries.

DSA: How are we going to fight against the lack of squadrons in the wake of a war with China?

CAS: The IAF is prepared 24 x 7 for any threat and is ready for a befitting response to any contingency. The IAF has already proposed a roadmap to the MOD for induction of fighter aircraft to build up to the sanctioned strength of 42 Fighter Squadrons and also modernisation. Augmenting the strength of our fighter squadron is our top priority. To achieve this, the IAF is looking at new induction and mid-life upgrades. The MiG-29, Jaguar and the Mirage-2000 aircraft are being upgraded in a phased manner to enhance their combat capability.

Weapon shortfalls are being made good and survivability of assets in the East is being given top priority by necessary infrastructure hardening.

The induction of fighter aircraft contracted for includes the LCA,

Rafale and the balance of Su30 MKI aircraft. An Acceptance of Necessity (AON) has also been granted for procurement of the LCA Mk 1A. Further, the government of India plans to procure fighter aircraft through the ‘Strategic Partnership’ model and other suitable options are also being considered to ensure that the IAF attains the authorised strength of fighter squadrons. If all the inductions take place as planned, the IAF is expected to achieve its authorised strength of fighter squadrons by the end of 15th Plan (2032).

DSA: What are the updates on the IAF’s programme of boosting ‘Man behind the Scene’?

CAS: The IAF considers its human resource as a critical asset and of immense value. The recruitment, training, welfare and well being of the personnel has always remained a big focus area for the force.

DSA: What are the new technologies in terms of propulsions, speed, standoff attacks, intelligence, mission and electronics that you perceive will play decisive roles in future combats?

CAS: Technologies, especially related to weapons, surveillance, the EW and its employment is changing at a faster rate than ever before. Any future combat will be technology intensive.

Combat RPAs, long range hypersonic weapon delivery vectors, RAMJET BVRs, NonNuclear EMP weapons, very

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high alt Long range surveillance platforms, etc will play a decisive role in future combat.

DSA: What are the challenges and choices facing the MMRC deals in India?

CAS: The challenge lies in inducting a capable platform in a timely manner which meets the operational requirements of the IAF. The government has decided to procure Rafale to meet the IAF’s critical operational necessity.

Further, the IAF plans to augment the fighter aircraft strength by the Single Engine Fighter Aircraft acquisition through the Strategic Partnership route.

DSA: What does ‘Make in India’ mean to the IAF? CAS: The IAF has always encouraged the development of indigenous defence production capability and capacities. The IAF firmly believes that indigenisation provides flexibility by reducing our dependence on foreign sources and leads to economic growth of the nation.

Accordingly, it is the IAF’s endeavour to achieve selfsufficiency through a focused, sustained and evolved indigenisation programmes. The IAF is committed to self-reliance and to ensure that India’s reliance on foreign manufactured defence equipment is continuously reduced and our country becomes an exporter of military systems.

Towards this aim, the IAF, as the lead service in capital projects, will continue to be a major contributor in the country’s ‘Make in India’ initiative.

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New Delhi

Victim of China The current Government of India made some efforts to thaw relations with North Korea when in 2015, a cabinet minister attended North Korea’s independence-day celebrations at the embassy in New Delhi. India should build on it, even though trade ties have come under current sanctions.

Despite the limited leverage over the DPRK, India should convince it to disarm and reform, for its chosen path has implications for the overall peace and security of Asia-Pacific, India included

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orth Korea, as a nation, is very difficult to classify, yet all possible negative adjectives are associated with its name – tyrannical, despotic, autocratic, oppressive, high-handed, etc to name a few. Is it a democracy, oligarchy, a dictatorial nation – one really cannot give an accurate description; it can probably be best described as a hereditary Marxist monarchy!

A ‘supreme leader’, who is the youngest in the world, leads the country; it also has the oldest! The reigning ruler, Kim Jong-un, is in his 30s while his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994, is called as the ‘eternal president’.

A parade with hundreds of soldiers and truck-mounted missiles, was held with a flypast in a ‘105’ formation, signifying the grandfather’s age! Kim Jong-

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un calls for ‘peace guaranteed by arms’ to justify the development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, to destroy the nation’s enemies – Japan, South Korea and the USA; the pace of development of the weapons and delivery systems has alarmed nations over the world, except, probably, its staunchest ally, China.

History Korea was a Japanese colony from the time of its occupation in 1910 until the Japanese surrendered at the end of World War II in 1945. The two major nations of the Allied Powers, the USA and the USSR, divided Korea into two zones along the 38th parallel, with the Soviets occupying the north while the south was occupied by the USA. When negotiations on reunification failed, separate governments were formed in 1948: the socialist Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)

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in the north, and the capitalist Republic of Korea (ROK) in the south. On 25 June 1950, the DPRK invaded the southern part and swiftly overran most of the country. The US Army, under the sponsorship of the United Nations intervened to defend the South, with the primary aim to contain communism. Rapid advancement into the DPRK led China to intervene, as the UN or the US forces neared its border, thus shifting the balance of the war once again. The Korean War ended on 27 July 1953, with the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement that restored the original boundaries approximately. It brought about a cessation of hostilities, but no peace treaty was signed between the two nations; technically, thus, the two nations continue to be at war, even after all these years! A Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), 2.5-mile (4.0 km) wide

Air Marshal Dhiraj Kukreja PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd) The writer has held many operational and staff appointments, which include being Air Marshal, Deputy Chief - Doctrines, Organisation and Training and later Operations, in HQ IDS, and Principal Director Plans in Air HQ. Amongst his operational command appointments are a premier transport squadron in the Northern Sector, the main transport-training base of the IAF in Bengaluru, and the Air Force Academy at Hyderabad.

He is the first Air Force officer to have undergone an International Fellowship at the National Defence University, Washington DC, USA while simultaneously pursuing a post graduate course in ‘National Security Strategy’ from National War College, USA. A member of think-tanks, he is a prolific writer with many articles on matters of national security, defence planning, and other contemporary topics, published in various defence journals.

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fortified buffer zone between the two Korean nations was established, which currently, is the most heavily defended national border in the world!

DPRK Relations Big Three

With

China’s support for the DPRK dates back to the Korean War (1950–1953), when Chinese troops entered the Korean peninsula to assist its ally.

Ever since then, China has lent political and economic support to the DPRK. The relationship did develop strains when the DPRK tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006 and China supported the UNSC Resolution imposing sanctions.

China’s relationship as a patron appeared to drift in tone and tenor, to one of punishment, with the UN Resolution and others that followed in quick succession; it, however, continued to thwart international punitive action against the DPRK for its human rights violations.

China continues to have wideranging ties with its offending ally, including economic exchanges and high-level state

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visits; penal steps, if any thus, appear to be undemonstrative.

Chinese actions appear to indicate its disinclination to impose any further sanctions; it would rather want to adopt engagement with the wayward regime, rather than coercion through sanctions, to make it mend its ways. China’s reluctance seems to reflect national interests within its foreign policy establishment, with analysts believing that China views the DPRK as a strategic asset, and its existence is preferable, rather than a unified Korea. A unified Korea could create uncertain economic and political effects on China, with risks of large population movements, should the DPRK unscramble quickly.

It was in October 1948, shortly after the proclamation of the new nation, that diplomatic relations were established

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between the DPRK and the USSR. The two maintained a close alliance all through the Cold War but relations have not been the same since 1991; the new Russian government under Boris Yeltsin refused to provide support to the DPRK, favouring the ROK instead. Once Vladimir Putin came in as the Prime Minister, and a major ‘friendship treaty’ signed in early 2000, relations have normalised somewhat. While Russia has been participant in all the UNSC Resolutions against the DPRK, it has also stressed to avoid the use of force; there have been some high-level visits by North Korean ministers, which have not been reciprocated by Russia at similar levels.

Russian Ambivalence Consistently supporting the UN sanctions against DPRK, for its nuclear weapons and missile programme, and publicly criticising the regime’s aggressive and loud-mouthed foreign policy, Russia has also played a significant role in easing DPRK’s economic isolation. The gap between Russian rhetoric and policy has been most stark in infrastructure and energy sectors. Tensions between the two countries has periodically disrupted Chinese oil supplies to DPRK; Russia’s importance as an investor in the energy sector has,

As far as India is concerned, both China and Pakistan should explain their past and present collusion with DPRK’s nuclear and missile programme

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therefore, noticeably increased.

Siberian oil companies have sold fuel to DPRK via a supply route linking Vladivostok to Rajin, thus providing it with vital hard currency, as the processed Siberian oil is resold to China!

Many analysts, however, have argued that Russian influence over the security situation in the Korean peninsula is minimal.

Apart from China, Russia is the only other great power, which has direct influence over the stability of the DPRK regime, while maintaining reasonably good relations with ROK too. Russian efforts are to boost its image in the

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international community as an influential power of the region, to counter both the USA and China. Since April 2017 ballistic missile tests by the DPRK, Russia has repeatedly argued that its strategy to continue favourable relations with both nations in the peninsula, is more likely to yield results than American rhetoric.

US Expectations Belied For the USA, the country has long been a secondary problem. Although, the DPRK has been an incessant cause of potential regional insecurity, its neighbours and its own economic limitations so far, have curbed its actions. The DPRK nuclear programme was one of USA’s first major postCold War crises; the US general policy has been to manage any arising issue and put off conflict.

Skilful use of diplomacy in 1994 and subsequent years, whenever the DPRK threatened senseless action, has so far avoided any use of force. Faced with the price of military intervention, the USA has preferred the route of calling for suspension of missile testing, financial isolation of the regime with an occasional diplomatic barter. The USA has always

A successful contribution

by India towards the containment of DPRK’s aggressive stance would enhance its diplomatic stature in the Asia-Pacific region expected North Korea to implode, so waiting a while longer has been the more logical approach.

Under the current US government, however, the policy has seen changes, since sanctions and condemnation from the UNSC have hardly deterred the DPRK. The USA is now concerned at the missile tests of 28-29 July 2017, which can target its cities (although the three tests of 25-26 August 2017 have been unsuccessful); for the USA, the window for further diplomatic engagement with

the DPRK is fast closing. The USA has indicated its resolve to resort to conventional military action, should diplomacy fail, through the massive cruise missile strike in Syria and the use of ‘mother of all bombs’ in Afghanistan. This could also be a not-so-subtle hint to the DPRK to mend its ways, to China, the primary economic support to the DPRK and to Russia that enough conventional firepower, to cause untold destruction, is still available with the USA, which it would not hesitate to use, should the need arise.

India And The DPRK India, in keeping with its policy of non-alignment, condemned the DPRK as the invader in the Korean War and supported the UN Resolutions against it.

Simultaneously, India did not support the arming of the ROK, and called for a unification of the two nations. India also supported the DPRK then, with humanitarian aid, sending medical supplies and food to the suffering population.

Surprisingly though, India established consular relations with the DPRK in 1962 and

established full diplomatic relations in 1973; India has, since then, continued to maintain reasonably good trade and diplomatic relations. India is one of the biggest trade partners and a major food provider to the DPRK; as per data available from the Government of India, Indian exports in 2015-16, were more than US$ 100 million, while the imports totalled about US$ 88 million.

(Prakash Nanda, India Has Done Right, www.firstpost.com, accessed on 27 Aug 2017) It may be of surprise to some readers to learn of technical training provided by India to the DPRK. The Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific (CSSTEAP), an institute located in the foothills of Dehradun and established under the aegis of the UN in 1995, has been training North Korean students since its inception. The trainees in the CSSTEAP have been students, scientists and space agency employees, most of who have participated in the space, missile and nuclear programme of their country. It is also discomforting to know that while the first set of sanctions were imposed by the UN in 2006, the continuation of training was exposed only in 2016 in an annual audit report! (Samuel Ramani, India’s U-Turn, www.thediplomat.com, accessed on 27 Aug 2017). In the preceding decades, India’s relations with the DPRK have been frosty, to say the least, due to its links with Pakistan; the two nations were helping

Crew of an M-24 tank along the Nakdong River front, August 1950

each other, with the DPRK helping Pakistan in developing its missiles and in return, Pakistan helped it to develop its nuclear weapons, with China playing the perfect role of an intermediary. Where does India fit in this extremely complicated jigsaw puzzle of the Korean peninsula? In 2006, India joined the world chorus in condemning the nuclear test by North Korea; it had its geo-strategic compulsions, for the nuclear test had immensely complicated India’s quest for integration in the then existing world nuclear order. Nevertheless, the Indian Government of 2006 did play some effective diplomatic moves to ensure the success of the Indo-US nuclear deal.

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Indian Disapproval Notwithstanding the trade links, continuing diplomatic relations and technical training, India has always voiced its disapproval of the DPRK’s nuclear proliferation record.

Regardless of India maintaining such a ‘meaningful’ relationship, the DPRK, however, has maintained mutual assistance with Pakistan! The current tensions in the Korean peninsula, due to its obstinacy in continuing nuclear and the ICBM tests, have made India take a relook at its relations. The Indian government has since April of this year reduced its trade, and now, since July, has halted all trade except for supplies of food and medicine; as part of the new ban; all military, police, scientific and technical help is also

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barred. The Indian Government has also announced the freezing of all funds and financial assets held on its territory by the DPRK government.

The Way Ahead In the current situation, India needs to join hands with the ROK, Japan, China and Russia to ensure that the Western nations fully comprehend the lessons of the Korean fiasco. The DPRK dictator Kim Jong-un has enjoyed the traditional protection of China for the survival of his regime. President Trump too has been seeking China’s assistance, as have the previous US governments, with little success.

China has shown itself as making some efforts which, however, are obviously not enough. The sharp US-China divergence on the situation gives India a diplomatic opportunity as it seeks to counter China on several fronts. As far as India is concerned, both China and Pakistan should explain their past and present collusion with the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programme.

thaw relations with North Korea when, in 2015, a cabinet minister attended North Korea’s independence-day celebrations at the embassy in New Delhi; India should build on it, even though trade ties have come under current sanctions. Despite the limited leverage over the DPRK, India should convince it to disarm and reform, for its chosen path has implications for the overall peace and security of the Asia-Pacific, India included certainly.

A successful contribution by India towards the containment of the DPRK’s aggressive stance would enhance its diplomatic stature in the AsiaPacific region, strengthening its long-term aspirations of being a viable competitor with China for

As long as nuclear weapons exist and are legitimised in the doctrines and force postures of some States, the ‘world nuclear order’ will never be stable. Force and sanctions cannot deter any nation from developing its nuclear arsenal. If anything can work, it is diplomacy and dialogue. Building of trust is a two-way street. In the Korean peninsula, the international community seems to have missed the bus. The current Government of India made some efforts to

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regional influence.Tests by the DPRK, Russia has repeatedly argued that its strategy to continue favourable relations with both nations in the peninsula, is more likely to yield results than American rhetoric.

lead story

READINESS FOR WAR

Two-Front Scenario Undoubtedly, the current preparation levels of the Indian Air Force are a huge deterrent for any Chinese misadventure. Chinese Generals would like to cut off India’s north-east region. The IAF’s major air thrust would have to be in this sector.

The two sides can be considered evenly matched in air power. With the current strength, the IAF will find it tough to take on both the PLAAF and the PAF Map not to scale

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T

he Doklam standoff and skirmishes at Pangong Tso lake kept the SinoIndia border tense for nearly 70 days. The media and strategic analysts on both sides continued to build patriotic fervour and indirectly egged their governments for a befitting strong action against the other side. This coupled with the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China later this year which is likely to see a leadership reshuffle, forced some Chinese leaders to adopt a hawkish approach. China’s recent unilateral approach to solving border disputes has been of concern to the world. China has already usurped nearly 90 per cent of South China Sea (SCS) and claimed nearly three million square kilometers as exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with utter disregard to ruling of the International arbitration tribunal and has been emboldened by the meek world response. On the other side, India is no more a pushover.

It is today the fastest growing large economy and among the first four countries in most economic and military indicators.

India has very professional and operationally well exposed Armed Forces which regularly train with all major militaries of the world. It also has a well-placed nuclear triad and has an AntiBallistic Missile (ABM) system.

Indian Armed Forces are thus significantly strong and in many sectors better placed than the Chinese across the Himalayas.

Foolhardy, and often belittled

by the world, Pakistan may also pitch in with China to settle old scores. War between two very big global nuclear powers is unlikely but the greatest deterrence is in being prepared. Is the Indian Air Force (IAF) fully geared?

Evolving Chinese PLAAF Chinese air power is being built to take-on the USA in the Pacific Ocean area. But the same platforms will be used against India. The PLAAF would try to move forward edge of the battle into Indian territory. It will use air offensive to keep the IAF grounded. China believes that using tactical or strategic missile force, brings greater returns as they are easier to use for offensive than defend against.

Like the IAF, the PLAAF has switched to net-centric offensive air defence and greater reliance on integrated attack. China is working to build airpower for asymmetric advantage by 2020 and the PLAAF may have around 1,000 ‘modern’ combat aircraft with significant offensive capability and good inventory of the PGMs and the surface-tosurface missiles.

Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM, AVSM, vm, VSM (Retd) The writer was a pioneer of the Mirage 2000 fleet and commanded a Mirage Squadron, two operational air bases and the IAF’s Flight Test Centre ASTE. He was the Team Leader of an aircraft upgrade project in Russia. Currently, he is a member of the Armed Forces Tribunal at Lucknow.

The PLAAF would try to move forward edge of the battle into Indian territory The PLAAF currently has around 650 combat aircraft including Su-30 MKK, Su-27, J-16, J-11, and J-10 fighters. Stealth fighter J-20 has just entered the service.

The under-development J-31 is touted to be equivalent of the

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A view of various combat aircrafts

Lockheed Martin F-35 and likely to be in service by 2019. Twentyfour Russian Su-35 aircraft are likely to enter service starting 2018. Many PLAAF fighters carry beyond-visual-range airto-air missiles and precision guided munitions. The PLAAF will ultimately stabilise at 80 fighter or bomber squadrons and may have around 50 aerial tankers.The PLAAF operates H-6 (Tu-16) bombers. Newer bomber variant H-6K can carry six DH10 cruise missiles or eight longrange air-to-air missiles to take on airborne early warning aircraft such as the E-3 AWACS. China has the KJ2000 AEW&C with indigenous radar and avionics mounted on IL-76 aircraft. The KJ-3000, a newer variant with next generation radar is already under development. China has 300 launchers of Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles including indigenous HQ-9 variant. They will also purchase six battalions of S-400. China has up to 500 DH-10 ground based land-attack missiles with 1500 km range. Few of these are air launched. The new Y-20 strategic airlift aircraft will allow rapid across-theatre

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deployments. China is reportedly working on a stealth bomber designated H-18. China is also developing cyber warfare capacity and anti-satellite weapons.

Chinese Dong Feng (East Wind) series of the ICBMs cover up to 15,000 km range. Most are road mobile.

Distance To Go For IAF The IAF currently has 34 combat squadrons; with nearly 12 of Su-30 MKI, three squadrons each of upgraded MiG-29UPG and Mirage 2000; five squadrons of SEPECAT Jaguar being up graded to DARIN III standard; two Squadrons of MiG-27UPG; five of MiG-21 Bison and half squadron of LCA Mk I. Another 100 LCA Mk 1A should be inducted by 2024.

Dassault Rafale will start joining by 2019. Intentions to induct F-16 Block 70 or Gripen JAS 39 E/F class 200 single-engine fighters to be built in India have been announced. The HAL-Sukhoi FGFA is still a work in progress and may be inducted earliest by 2022. Similarly, the HAL-DRDO AMCA is still on drawingboards and planned for induction around 2028. France has offered 31 old

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The IAF air bases being in the plains, gives take off payload and logistical advantage

Jaguars free of cost that may be upgraded in India. The first DRDO AEW&C Embraer ERJ 145 has just been inducted. Twenty are planned. The IAF continues to operate the three EL/W2000 Phalcon AEW&Cs and two more are on order. The IAF has seven IL-78 aerial tankers. Six more are planned. The strategic lift capability includes 10 C-17 Globemaster IIIs (One more on order) and 17 IL-76. Five C-130-J are for special operations and seven more have started inducting. Nearly a 100 An-32 are the medium lift fleet. They also have the para-drop and bombing role. The IAF operates nearly 150 Mi-17 variants and around 100 Dhruv ALH and Chetak or Cheetah combinations. Two squadrons of Mi-25/35 attack helicopters will be replaced by the Apache Longbow AH-64E by 2019. Similarly, 15 Chinook Ch47 F heavy-lift helicopters will be inducted by 2019. The IAI Heron and Searcher UAVs and Harpy UCAVs form the unmanned fleet.

The USA has approved purchase of 22 Predator ‘Guardian’ drones and the IAF will get armed UAVs from Israel. Israeli SPYDER is the

low-level quick reaction surfaceto-air missile system with medium range. These are complimented by the indigenous Akash air defence missile system and the existing S-125 Pechora and OSAAK systems. The IAF also has the Prithvi-II short-range ballistic missiles. A US$ 5 billion deal for five units of S-400 ‘Triumf’ longrange (400 km) SAM has already been signed. To counter 80 PLAAF combat squadrons, the IAF must have at least 50 squadrons, more so to cater for a two-front war.

IAF In Support of Indian Army China has already established good all-weather road and rail network and connected all the 39 major mountain passes touching India. They have an oil pipeline till Lhasa. It has nearly 12 divisions in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and can rapidly mobilise up to 30.

Indian government has given a push to complete the India-China Border Roads (ICBR) Project, which envisages the construction of 73 strategic roads along the LAC. Only 30 of these are currently operational. China has got

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concerned. Connectivity will help reinforce defensive formations and allow offensive options. The Indian Army is raising a new mountain strike Corps (XVII) at Panagarh, making four Corps in the east. It is designed to launch a quick counter-offensive and grab territory inside the TAR to strengthen India’s position in the ensuing negotiations.

The IAF has already started positioning the C-130 aircraft at Panagarh. The IAF containing the PLAAF is critical for Indian Army operations. The IAF fighters will interdict critical logistic nodes and bridges on Chinese road network to thwart the PLA movements and bring maximum dividend. Also they will provide precision Close Air Support.

The IAF combat assets are fully geared to support Indian Army’s ground plans.

IAF Well Placed In The Air Khashgar, Hotan, Ngari Gunsa, Nyingchi, Chengdu Bangda, Gongkar (Lhasa) and Xigaze (Shigatse), are some of the fully operational PLAAF airfields opposite India. Most being at high altitude, they have long

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Gripen JAS 39 E

runways to cater for all types of operations. Total yearly duration for activation has gone up.

Sino-Pak Two Front War China has encouraged its media to make statements of possible SinoPak military collusion potentially culminating in a two-front situation as part of ‘Psychological Ops’.

Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, Chief of Air Staff in an interaction during exercise ‘Iron Fist’ last year had cautioned that IAF’s numbers are not adequate to fully execute an air campaign in a two-front scenario.

Large numbers of squadrons were winding down and the IAF had conveyed its concerns to the government. Pakistan and China have very strong military and economic ties. With Pakistan having already ceded nearly 5,000 sq km strategic territory in Northern Kashmir and huge Chinese investments in China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) they are likely to act in unison. China has helped

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Pakistan acquire nuclear and missile technology and set up its military industrial complex.

Pakistan is likely to collude with China; Myanmar may allow over flights to PLAAF; Both India and China may overfly Nepal even without permission; Bangladesh is also likely to be neutral. There is possibility of Pakistan allowing the PLAAF to use Gilgit, Skardu, Chilas, Chitral and Muzaffarabad airbases in a two front war with India. Opening of second front would force India to spread assets.

India Can Neutralise China Any war initiated by China will seriously affect its global standing and economic interests for years to come. India is now a closer ally of USA and both the Americans and Russians will prevent China from entering into a war.

Notwithstanding, India’s ICBM and ABM capability has enhanced with at least 110 nuclear warheads with missile ranges of nearly 8,000 km. Undoubtedly IAF’s current preparation levels are a huge deterrent for any Chinese misadventure. Chinese Generals would like to cut off

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Any war initiated by China will seriously affect its global standing and economic interests India’s north-east region. The IAF’s major air thrust would have to be in this sector. The two sides can be considered evenly matched in air power. With current strength, the IAF will find it tough to take on both PLAAF and PAF. The IAF requires at least 50 combat squadrons for a possible two-front war. India’s defence outlay at US$ 55 billion is too little for defence modernisation leave alone IAF bridging the combat squadron gap. The defence outlay has to go up from current 1.65 per cent of the GDP to 2.5 per cent. For a two front war IAF will require to double the number AEW&Cs, heavy lift aircraft of C-17 and IL-76 class, and air refuellers. India must announce its clear intention to use nuclear option in case of a two-front war.

defence industry

Bharat Electronics Ltd HEART OF INDIGENISATION

M V Gowtama Chairman and Managing Director

The Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) has been doing its bit to promote the Government’s Make in India initiative by laying strong thrust on in-house R&D and indigenisation, outsourcing from Indian private industries, public-private partnerships, joint ventures, capacity expansion and modernisation

The author joined BEL at the Ghaziabad Unit in January 1983 as a Probationary Engineer. He was initially posted to the D&E-Radar Division where he contributed to the development of Receiver sub-system of Cyclone Warning Radar.

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) has many Strategic Business Units (SBUs) across various campuses in India with Bangalore Complex (BGCX) being the headquarter of the company October 2017

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A

s free India was born, it dreamt of self-reliance in electronics.

In 1948, a year after Independence, the Government of India announced a comprehensive industrial policy. It empowered the Government to set up infrastructure to manufacture a host of critical products. The task of establishing a radar and electronics factory was given to the Ministry of Defence. It was from this authority that Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) was established in Bangalore in 1954.

Initial Years (1954-1963) The Government of India, decided to have its own professional electronics establishment to cater to the needs of the Indian defence establishment.

After overcoming teething troubles, the BEL started production during 1955-56.

The first decade saw the company gaining stability and acquiring expertise not only in the field of electronic communication equipment like receivers and HF transmitters but also in electronic components like receiving valves, crystals, ceramic and mica capacitors.

(SFM) Radars with the ToT from M/s Contraves.

Expansion (1974-1983) During this eventful decade, the products of BEL reached the length and breadth of the country through the MW high (100 and 200 KW) and medium (1 and 2 KW) power transmitters supplied to the All lndia Radio. The BEL was the sole supplier of electronic hardware and studio equipment to the All India Radio and Doordarshan.

Fire Control, L-Band and S-Band Radars were manufactured in Radar Division. Multimet Radars and Cyclone Warning Radars were manufactured and delivered to the Indian Meteorology Department.

For the Leander Class Frigates, all the Navigation Radars, Surveillance Radars, Display Systems and Gun or Missile Control Radars were produced and delivered to the Indian Navy. The first prototype of the APSOH sonar was delivered during 1980.

BEL faced THE challenge of US sanctions through alternate sourcing and indigenisation

Steady Growth (1964-1973) The BEL expanded its product range to include radars and diverse components.

The equipment manufactured then was massive in size and comprised mainly of precision electro-mechanical and electronic components (valves and first generation semiconductors).

This necessitated large fabrication facilities and spacious assembly halls. The Radar Division started manufacture of Superfledermaus

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Separate manufacturing facilities for Integrated Circuits, Power devices and Hybrid Micro Circuits were set up with clean room environment to produce components of international standards. During this decade, Ghaziabad (1974, for Radars and Antennae), Pune (1979, for Image Converter Tubes) and Machilipatnam (1983, for OptoElectronic Devices and Systems) Units were established.

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Diversification (1984-1993) The fourth decade saw diversification of the product range in Bangalore Complex and the birth of five more new Units – Chennai (1985, for Tank Electronics), Panchkula (1985, for Communication Equipment), Navi Mumbai (1986, for Glass Shells for TV Picture Tubes), Kotdwara (1986, for Switching Equipment) and Hyderabad (1986, for Electronic Warfare Systems).

The BEL became a multi-unit, multiproduct, multi-technology company.

New generation Radio Relay RRF, state-of-the-art VHF manpack STARS ‘V’ with in-built crypto facility, Project TARANG, an indigenously developed Radar Warning Receiver covering a frequency range of 2-18 GHz, used in all the fighter aircraft of the Indian Air Force was developed.

The BEL recognised the importance of software development and started SOFEX for development and export of software.

Overcoming Embargoes (1994-2003) The US imposed import sanctions on the BEL, which affected the sourcing of critical components. The BEL faced this challenge through alternate sourcing and indigenisation. A stateof-the-art IC Design Centre was established to indigenously design sub-micron Integrated Circuits.

Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), handed over the first of the 3-dimensional radar ‘Rohini’ to the Indian Air Force

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defence industry

Current Set-Up Starting from a single unit in Bengaluru, the Company now has a pan-India presence with units in Ghaziabad, Panchkula, Kotdwara, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad, Machilipatnam and Chennai. It also has a network of offices and service centres across the country. Domain knowledge, capability to design and manufacture products that suit the exacting standards of the Indian Defence Services, and long-term customer support – these form BEL’s core competence. Defence equipment has to function in harsh and varied environments. Not only must the electronic systems be able to withstand extremes, but also function dependably. Fortunately, the early leadership of the BEL had laid down exemplary systems and procedures, such as rigorous training of personnel, thrust on R&D and indigenous technology, comprehensive documentation, stringent standards, meticulous testing protocols and quality-control processes. This has enabled the Company to meet the stringent requirements of the Armed Forces. Powered by technology and supported by a strong R&D base built over the decades, the BEL has grown into a major defence electronics manufacturer in the country.

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New Products Some of the new products or systems introduced during the year are: • Weapon Locating Radar • Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail Mk 2 • Beacon Mk III • Missile Two Way Data Link • Gigabit Ethernet Based Ship Data Network • Advanced Composite Communication System • Ship Based EW System (Varuna) • Battle Field Surveillance System – XR • Hull Mounted Sonar (New Generation) • Submarine Sonar Suite (USHUS 2)

The Akash Weapon System is a great success story of the ‘Make in India’ initiative

Highlights Of 2016-17

New Business Initiatives

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with Laser Range Finder »» Electronic Fuze »» Low Level Transportable Radar »» Ship Borne Electronic Warfare System (Varuna) Excellent ‘MoU’ Rating for 2015-16 Turnover from indigenous technology is 87 per cent

Registered a turnover growth of 17 per cent over the previous year Export turnover of US$ 65 million Induction of Weapon Locating Radar by Army Supply commenced for major projects: »» Integrated Air Command and Control System »» Hand Held Thermal Imager

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New Advanced Night Vision Products Factory at Nimmaluru to expand the Night Vision Devices Business Strategic alliances with Defence labs, the OFB and global OEMs for emerging businesses Dedicated Business Groups to address Homeland Security and Smart City Business Thrust on exports and offsets

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Focus is on Build to Print, Build to Specifications and Buyer Nominated Equipment Plans to diversify or expand business in both Defence and non-Defence sectors

Make In India initiatives The BEL has been doing its bit to promote the Government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative by laying a strong thrust on in-house R&D and indigenisation, outsourcing from Indian private industries, Public-Private Partnerships, Joint Ventures, capacity expansion and modernisation.

The Akash Weapon System is a great success story of the ‘Make in India’ initiative: barring a few electronic components, every bit of Akash has the ‘Made in India’ tag. The Akash Weapon System is a role model for Public-Private Partnership.

The missile system has been realised through professional project management spearheaded by the BEL. While the Radars, Control Centres, Simulators, associated support systems and the integrated software for the system are handled by the BEL, the missiles are from BDL, Squadron Control Centre from the ECIL and the launchers from the Tata Power SED and the L&T.

The various product range of BEL

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Outlook For The Future •

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BEL to continue indigenisation efforts in line with the ‘Make in India’ initiative Radars, Missile Systems, Communication and Network Centric Systems, Tank Electronics, Gun Upgrades, Electro-Optic Systems and Electronic Warfare and Avionics Systems to drive BEL’s growth

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Capacity enhancement and creation of new test facilities for defence business Company pursuing business opportunities in Solar Energy, Homeland Security, Smart Cities, Smart Cards and Telecom Strategies and action plans in place to face competition, maintain technological edge and retain leadership position in strategic electronics.

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During Peacetime

And Natural Calamities

While the Indian Air Force will be well equipped in the future in terms of hardware for tasks both in war and peacetime, its greatest strength lies in its capability of providing swift response in disaster management

Operation Maitri

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T

he origin of the Indian Air Force (IAF) can be traced back to 8 October 1932 when it was established under the Indian Air Force Act promulgated that very year when the nation was under the British rule and at that point in time, was accorded the status of ‘Auxiliary Air Force’. The first four aircraft, the singe-engine Westland Wapiti biplanes, were inducted into the IAF around six months later on 1 April 1933. Subsequently, in recognition of the splendid record of service rendered by the IAF during the Second World War in 1945, it was conferred the prefix ‘Royal’ by King George VI and was thus renamed as the Royal Indian Air Force (RIAF).

However, in 1950, when India became a republic, the prefix was dropped and its original name was restored.

Mission Of The IAF The mission of the IAF as defined by the Armed Forces Act of 1947, the Constitution of India and the Air Force Act of 1950 is “Defence of India and every part thereof including preparation for defence and all such acts as may be conducive in times of war to its prosecution and after its termination to effective demobilisation”. The focus being entirely on its role in war and the need to be prepared for it, the IAF would be expected to build up and possess the capability to rain death and destruction on the enemy in the event of a military conflict. It goes without saying that during peacetime which implies period where there is

absence of violent conflict, a major preoccupation of the IAF will be to strengthen all its elements in terms of skills, modern military hardware and infrastructure to prepare the organisation to effectively confront the enemy should the nation be drawn into a war with either of the two adversaries ie Pakistan and China or with both, should they be acting in collusion, leading to what is being described as a “two-front war”.

In response to SOS from besieged Pakistan Army soldiers serving with the UN in Congo, the IAF undertook strike missions to help them escape Force Structure And Assets

Air Marshal BK Pandey PVSM, AVSM, VM (Retd) The author retired from the Indian Air Force (IAF) in May 2004. During his 40 years of service with IAF he held a variety of Command and Staff appointments. His appointment prior to retirement was that of Air Officer Commanding in Chief, Training Command, IAF. The officer was deputed by the Government of India to the Republic of Singapore to train their pilots to be flying instructors.

He has also served in a diplomatic assignment at the Embassy of India in Kabul, Afghanistan, during the turbulent years of 1989 to 1992 in the war torn country. Apart from his diplomatic responsibilities, the officer was tasked by the Indian Government to open the only English medium school in Kabul. He also took active part in the operations by the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka. For his distinguished service rendered, he has received the Presidential Awards of Param Vishisht Seva Medal, Ati Vishisit Seva Medal and Vayu Sena Medal (VM) Gallantry.

Over the last eight and a half decades that the IAF has been in existence, the fledgling organisation has grown to be the fourth largest Air Force in the world. Today, the IAF possess a combat fleet consisting of fixed-wing fighter aircraft as also armed attack helicopters.

Its airlift and logistic support capability is provided largely by a mix of Boeing C-17 Globemaster III strategic airlift aircraft that has a true global reach and the

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The Indian Air Force has been extremely instrumental in several rescue operations

C-130J Super Hercules tactical transport aircraft from Lockheed Martin Corporation with amazing short-field performance capability. Both these fourengine aircraft have been procured from reputed defence and aerospace majors from the United States of America.

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The airlift capability is augmented by fleets of Antonov An-32 twinengine, medium-lift transport aircraft and a fleet of medium-lift Mi-17 V5 helicopters from Russia.

The IAF also has force multipliers which include aerial tankers for in-flight refueling of combat aircraft when on operational missions, Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft that are airborne platforms to control operational missions and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Apart from aircraft, there are missile systems employed in both offensive and defensive roles as well as a network of groundbased radars to provide early warning, guidance and control.

Training In Peacetime The IAF aims at obtaining optimum performance from each and every airborne platform or weapon system as well as from the support systems. For the

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IAF to be operationally effective, it is also necessary that there is flawless coordination amongst the different systems. These parameters can only be met with if the men or women behind the machines are trained to the required level of proficiency. In peacetime, the primary task before the IAF therefore is to hone the skills of personnel employed to not only operate or maintain aircraft or weapon systems; but also to be able to achieve proper coordination for the best results. Over the years, the IAF has developed an effective training system and elaborate infrastructure to achieve these objectives. Training of personnel is therefore an important preoccupation of the IAF in peacetime.

But where the IAF really makes a lasting impact is its role as a part of the national organisation responsible for disaster management both within the country and abroad. The IAF is invariably called upon to assist in times of natural calamity be it earthquake, floods, tsunami or any other natural or man-made disaster within India or abroad.

Some of these in which the IAF has rendered yeomen service, are enumerated briefly in the succeeding paragraphs.

Indian Ocean – Tsunami 2004 A severe earthquake measuring 9.1 on the Richter scale, struck the Indian Ocean region with its epicentre at Banda Aceh off the West coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. It wrecked great

misery in Andaman and Nicobar Islands and along the East coast of India. The IAF reached the islands within an hour of the disaster and carried out relief operations as well as in search and rescue.

Myanmar – Nargis 2008 On 2 May 2008, Myanmar experienced its greatest natural disaster when a very severe cyclonic storm Nargis, made landfall causing country-wide devastation.

The IAF flew in tonnes of urgently required relief material and carried out relief and rescue missions in Myanmar.

Uttarakhand – Op Surya Hope 2013 In 2013, Uttarakhand suffered the worst natural disaster in a hundred years due to a cloudburst over the Himalayas lasting several days. In what was described as the “Himalayan Tsunami”, the IAF deployed 83 aircraft for search, rescue and relief operations airlifting 19,600 victims and 3,82,400 kg of relief material. The level of dedication and commitment of the IAF was evident in the words of Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, the then Chief of the Air Staff, who said, “Our helicopter rotors will not stop churning till such time we

get each one of you out. Do not lose hope.”

UN – Rescue of Pakistani Soldiers 2014 When it comes to humanitarian work in peacetime, the IAF makes no distinction between friend and foe. In 2006, in response to an SOS from besieged Pakistan Army soldiers serving with the UN in Congo, the IAF undertook strike missions with its Mi-35 attack helicopters creating an opportunity for the Pakistani soldiers to retreat to safer positions. The IAF attack helicopters came under attack and suffered damage, but remained committed to the task.

J&K – Op Megh Rahat 2014 Jammu and Kashmir faced one of the worst natural calamities in the form of floods in 2014.

While hundreds were killed in the floods, many more were rendered homeless.

The IAF deployed both fixed-wing and helicopters in the State for search, rescue, relief, relocation and humanitarian assistance.

C-17 Globemaster III aircraft. In an operation that lasted 15 days.

Amidst heavy shelling, 4,640 trapped Indians along with 960 foreign nationals were evacuated from the war-torn Yemen.

Nepal – Op Maitri 2015 In April 2015, an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 on the Richter scale struck Nepal causing widespread death and destruction. Flying the C-130J Super Hercules aircraft, the IAF was the first to reach Nepal carrying the NDRF personnel and urgently required stores including fuel for helicopters engaged in rescue and relief missions. In all the IAF flew 2,223 missions, rescued 11,200 people who were trapped in remote locations and air dropped 1,700 tonnes of relief material.

Map not to scale

Amidst heavy shelling, 4,640 trapped Indians were evacuated from Yemen

Yemen – Op Rahat 2015 In March 2015, in a military conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia supported by a coalition of Arab States, around 5,000 Indian nationals were trapped in Yemen. As part of Operation Rahat that was launched to extricate the Indian nationals, the IAF deployed the

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A launch at Satish Dhawan Space Centre, Andhra Pradesh

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Indian defence forces

Regaining The High Ground

In Counter-terrorism As counter terrorist operations succeed further, the implementation of Prime Minister Modi’s intent expressed on Independence Day must become a priority. “Not by abuse, not by bullets, we will win Kashmir by embracing all Kashmiris” is as powerful a message as Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s – “Kashmiriyat, Insaaniyat, Jambooriyat”

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t is not as if the Indian Army did not give its ‘all out’ best towards counter-terror operations in the past. If it had not, the situation would never have transformed from the high presence of over 8,000 terrorists all over Jammu and Kashmir in the nineties to around 300 or a little more in mid-2017.

But everything has a context and the importance of Operation All Out launched by the Army in mid-2017 has to be seen with the right context in mind. As an introduction it may be adequate to know that this operation is a large scale undertaking by the security forces in Kashmir to regain full dominance over the counter terror grid after a series of setbacks which have given a perception that their hold had slackened. The Operation has achieved spectacular results considering the comparatively lower strength of terrorists present in the Valley today.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM & BAR (Retd) The writer, a former GOC of the Srinagar based 15 Corps, does extensive research on Islam to arrive at solutions for low intensity conflict generated due to ideological differences. His understanding of conflict between Islam and the rest of the world has led to his extensive advisories from time to time.

Through February to June 2017, the ratio of losses versus achievements fluctuated Counter-infiltration Grid A strong counter infiltration grid all along the Line of Control (LoC), based on the LoC fence and deployed in fair depth, has ensured that over time the strength of terrorists in the Valley and Jammu region diluted to what it is today because infiltration remained under control (although never at zero level) while hinterland operations remained effective. The counter infiltration grid can never

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be fool proof given terrain, climatic and simply human constraints; there have been differing levels of infiltration over the last ten years.

It is infiltration which sustains the terrorist and separatist movement, along with financial networks and a strong information grid that the separatists have created over time.

The proxy support for all this comes from Pakistan across the LoC. With progressive reduction of terrorist strength one of the modes of keeping the movement at high levels was street turbulence. Its advantage has always been the inability of the security forces to find solutions for crowd control through non-lethal means. Civilian casualties which occur in response are used to fuel the movement further. More importantly, it keeps the Army’s attention diverted as neither is it in position to conduct counter-terror tasks with the same zest and intelligence flow nor keep its focus fully on the counterinfiltration grid.

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The 2016-17 Context

fatigues and personal weapons went viral on social media signaling the arrival of ‘New Militancy’. On 8 July, the leader of the young pack, Burhan Wani, was trapped by an Army unit and the J&K Police; and subsequently killed. It sent Kashmir into a tizzy with spiraling violence against the SF and mass agitation in the streets.

If the above context is understood, it becomes easier to comprehend what exactly happened in 201617, leading up to June 2017 when Operation All Out began in full earnest. The year 2016 was like any other year until 8 July of that year. The militancy in South Kashmir had undergone a transformation and a group of young renegades, all locals were fuelling the movement with violent activities against the security forces (SF) and following up with promotion of alienation through social media. A photograph of ten young terrorists in combat

Pakistan realigned its focus back to Kashmir. It targeted the LoC making the ceasefire irrelevant and supported the street movement and acts of terror with renewed vigour. By winter, the agitation had eased a bit but the terrorist activity took on a new high. It can only be assumed that with leaking infiltration through the LoC and fresh recruitment in local terrorist ranks, there was a surge in terrorist strength. Intelligence agencies and some media reports also appear to confirm this and it is no slur on the Army; the

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circumstances and context of leaking infiltration has already been sufficiently explained.

Winter is usually considered a quiet period in Kashmir (although it is not borne out by fact) but the winter of 2016-17 witnessed hyper activity with numerous contacts between terrorists and the SF. The additional troops that had been inducted in the late summer of 2016 had by then deinducted. There was a flurry of ambushes and such operations by terrorists inflicting a higher quantum of casualties on the SF. Through February to June 2017, the ratio of losses versus achievements fluctuated and was never anywhere near what the Army usually achieved in the past. Additional troops were inducted to occupy space, operate and restrict the flexibility available to terrorists. The freedom with which terrorist related hit and run operations were being conducted against The J&K policemen

Operation All Out has received promising results

and the terrorist confidence to risk contact even with the Army demanded a return to basics as far as counter terrorist operations was concerned.

Counter-terror Format

What is absolutely clear is that the security establishment is aiming to reduce the strength of terrorists and not alienate the public

As a professional observer, I can envisage Operation All Out as a focused operation with the aim of regaining total domination over the security situation. It involves a higher energy and greater weight in the operations to neutralise the presence of terrorists and eliminate them.

However, I wish to highlight for public knowledge that such operations are not events which are undertaken one fine morning on a whim. They are deliberate operations which evolve and are progressively refined.

A concept of operations is the first thing to be drawn up. It could possibly have been thought through with some aspects as

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follows (not comprehensive): • The operation presupposed enhanced levels of continuous intelligence of high quality.

Adequate resources to ensure this would be a must. Not only coordination with intelligence agencies and police but much greater cooperation would be mandatory.

• For sustained pressure, it would be necessary to tighten the counter infiltration grid so as to prevent any reinforcement in numbers. Simultaneously, there would be necessity of monitoring potential areas of recruitment to obtain early warning and prevent the same.

• There would be requirement to limit the movement potential of terrorists using control measures such as multiple check points on 24x 7 basis.

• Areas of operations to be prioritised based on historical information. Due weightage to be accordingly given with earmarked reserves to respond to unexpected contingencies.

• Listing of terrorists based on their profile of longevity, notoriety, capability and history of movement.

• Profiling of area and terrorist group wise leadership with earmarked teams of officers and men as hunters. Mix of police and intelligence officers with these teams would enhance effectiveness.

• River patrolling, night domination of roads and tracks would be required to further control mobility.

A launch at Satish Dhawan Centre, • Listing of black andSpace grey villages Andhra Pradesh for general search. Cordon and search of villages on which

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intelligence is obtained.

• Absolute coordination with the J&K Police and the CRPF for all planning and execution.

Sharing of intelligence and post operations information and experience, to be done with all.

• Clear directions and tasks for each force with thorough briefing before any operation.

• Operations to maintain maximum sensitivity towards women, older gentry and children and continue to display human side of forces. Dignity and selfesteem of the public would be a priority in order to establish the traditional moral ascendancy.

• Other population control measures to continue along with fraternalisation with population through welfare schemes such as medical and veterinary camps.

• Encouraging surrender of local terrorists, especially fresh recruits, minimum collateral damage to residential houses.

• Decentralised control to level of unit commanders for seizing initiative where situations present themselves.

• Adequate availability of Special Forces for undertaking special tasks.

Estimating Terrorist Numbers In terms of terrorist numbers, the information need not always be accurate but it is learnt that 238 terrorists were identified at the commencement. The LeT still had the largest number with

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136 listed followed by Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) 95 and 23 from Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).

The numbers game is mostly an approximation using different methods to compute. It is learnt that almost 100 local youth followed in Burhan Wani’s wake after his killing. That’s fairly large and if unchecked without more robust ways of monitoring and control over recruitment, the number could have gone up exponentially. Operation All Out was therefore correctly timed and probably appropriately tasked.

What may surprise some observers is my inclusion of some soft measures in the concept. Any good professional will agree that such operations are not conducted to punish the populace or inconvenience it. Some degree of pressure on black villages which are known to provide safe havens for terrorists is acceptable but this too must remain within norms. What

hierarchy and which had to be included in the concept as well as the terms of reference, had to be the security of the Sri Amarnath Yatra. The conduct of the overall operation would have an effect on the security grid of the legendary Yatra which usually has a full scale operation, usually termed Operation Shiva, separately earmarked for it. The two operations would surely have been coordinated very closely.

Operation All Out, by its very name signifies a complete focus of the summer grid towards a more offensive outlook. As the initial results started coming in the motivation of the troops increased and the ability of the terrorists to strike reduced drastically. Once forced to frequently change safe houses by the large swarm of intelligence agents and sources the other measures of limiting their mobility became effective.

That is how there was a flurry of contacts between the security

Zakir Musa is being roundly blamed by other groups for the high levels of intelligence obtained by the security forces needs to be absolutely clear is that the security establishment is aiming to reduce the strength of terrorists and not alienate the public to motivate more to join terrorist ranks.

Centrality Of Yatra An aspect which undoubtedly would have played heavily on the minds of the senior

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forces and the terrorists. Holed up terrorists are rarely able to inflict casualties on the security forces, it is the ones who are free and roaming without pursuit on them who lie in ambush or go for the so called fedayeen actions.

Thus, the success of Operation All Out can be attributed to the energetic intelligence grid, control of mobility measures and

the rigorous conduct of cordonand-search operations (CASO).

The latter has a psychological effect on both the populace and the terrorists. While expensive in terms of deployment of resources the large presence of troops puts both under pressure because reverse sweep of the CASO after search of one area is complete does have an element of surprise.

The results of Operation All Out have been most encouraging.

Fratricide Among Terrorists Although not discussed in the concept but the possibility of causing internecine stand offs and infighting among terrorist groups always remains a possibility. It has to be done very deliberately and is not something impossible.

With availability of social media networks, communication

strategy can be evolved to achieve this. I am not certain how far this was done as part of Operation All Out but evidently from some reports on Zakir Musa, the renegade from Hizbul Mujahideen who now heads the new avatar of Al Qaida, stated that he is being roundly blamed by other groups for the high levels of intelligence obtained by the security forces which has led to large scale elimination of terrorists.

As counter terrorist operations succeed further, the implementation of Prime Minister Modi’s intent expressed on Independence Day must become a priority. “Not by abuse, not by bullets, we will win Kashmir by embracing all Kashmiris” is as powerful a message as former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s – “Kashmiriyat,

Insaaniyat, Jambooriyat”. The essence lies in operationalising it through a doctrine.

It will take the continuation of Operation All Out at optimum level, combined with what I would propose as Operation Win Heart, which will see the success of what the Prime Minister was seeking on Independence Day 2017.

List of Leaders Killed 1. Abu Dujana – LeT 2. Abu Ismail – LeT 3. Bashir Lashkari – LeT 4. Yasin Yatoo – HM 5. Abu Lelhari – LeT 6. Sabzar Ahmad Bhat – HM 7. Junai Mattoo – LeT 8. Pervez Ahmad – HM 9. Aquib Moulvi – LeT 10. Muzaffar Naikoo (aka Maulvi)

Police guarding a tense street in Srinagar

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TERROR FINANCING

Emerging Paradigms While money laundering cleans dirty money, terrorism financing dirties clean money. To that extent, terrorism financing predominantly raises income from legitimate sources which are then deployed for terrorist attacks. Countering these mechanisms with anti-money laundering (AML) tools will not be effective

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T

he recent unrest in the Kashmir valley has had an unabated run which has not been witnessed in Jammu and Kashmir in the past. One could witness a total transformation of the situation, where violence has taken a new colour and character as civilians such as students including girls have taken to the streets, throwing stones at the security forces. Concomitantly, one has also witnessed the emergence of new groups such as Ansar Ghazwat-Ul-Hind in Jammu and Kashmir headed by Zakir Musa.

All these incidents and events are not only fuelled by ideology alone but also by money.

Balasubramaniyan Viswanathan The author has a Doctoral Degree specialising in terrorism financing in India and he has co-authored the book “Terror Funds in India: Money Behind Mayhem� published in July 2017.

In July this year, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) unearthed a module which was funding insurgency and violence in the troubled state of Jammu

Terrorism financing model is different in two ways – hybridity and minimal physical movement and Kashmir. The NIA arrested seven persons from Kashmir and Delhi including the son-in-law of separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani and some more middle level separatist leaders who were part of an elaborate over ground support network. They were instrumental in financing terrorism and unrest in the valley.

However, what is interesting is that this financing network was using a mechanism consisting of both formal (such as cross border trade,

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tourism) and informal modes (such as hawala) of money laundering to raise, transfer and deploy funds in Jammu and Kashmir.

Though, it is not uncommon to come across terrorism financing in Kashmir, the present model is different from its predecessors in two ways – hybridity and minimal physical movement of funds across jurisdictions. The following are two of the key mechanisms which have been adopted by this module.

Diversion Of Haj Funds Reports indicate that insurgency in Kashmir was financed by diverting funds paid by Haj pilgrims. This terrorism financing model consists of four players – over ground workers of terror groups in India who act as financial facilitators, travel agents operating in India, pilgrims from India and members of terror group based in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Travel agents who are linked to terror groups or who act as their fronts, divert a portion of the Haj package costs, paid by prospective Haj pilgrims travelling from India approximately amounting to ` 2 lakh. These funds are then collected by local financial facilitators of terror groups and are deployed for operational and organisation purposes within India. However, the costs associated with Haj pilgrimage outside India in Saudi Arabia for Haj pilgrims in terms of housing, food and travel are underwritten by members of terror groups that are based out of Saudi Arabia.

(See Figure 1)

India

Haj Pilgrims pay between Rs.2 to Rs. 3 lakh towards Haj tour packages to local travel agents linked to terrorist groups in Kashmir/Delhi

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Operatives linked to terror groups underwrite the cost of housing, food and travel of Haj Pilgrims in Saudi Arabia

Funds raised by terror groups outside India in Pakistan to provided to operatives based in Saudi Arabia

Agents in Kashmir/Delhi then pass on the information about Haj Pilgrims to operatives based in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan

These agents divert atleast 60 % of these funds to financial facilitators of terror groups in Kashmir

No Cross border movement of funds.

Only Information exchange Cash received and deployed towards operational and organisational costs of terror groups in Kashmir

Figure 1 – Diagrammatic Representation of Terrorism Financing abusing Haj Pilgrimage Packages

Interestingly, this terrorism financing model ensures total

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secrecy as there are no cross border movement of funds across financial jurisdictions which otherwise could act as a key trigger for identifying suspect transactions. And what is more important is that, this model has borrowed the concept of traditional Hawala mechanism and customised the same in formal tourism industry.

However, this mechanism is radically different from another key modus operandi to transfer funds into India using trade based money laundering where there is actual trans-border movement of value in terms of commodities.

Trade-based Money Laundering Garments, rugs and dry fruits are among 21 commodities, which are commonly traded across India and Pakistan border under the “barter” system. Terror groups have exploited this bilateral trade route to transfer funds into India. Commodities imported into India are under invoiced ie, are imported at a much lower rate compared to the market rate. In exchange, the importer sends commodities to the Pakistani trader, which are equivalent to the value of goods imported.

This way, the importer receives commodities at a lower rate which

Traders linked to terror groups export goods to India under the cross border LOC trade mechanism

are then sold at a much higher rate. The mark-up price which is the difference between the import rate into India and the sale rate in India, is in reality are funds which are transferred to terror modules in India from Pakistan. The traders are either linked to terror groups or their front organisations. By this way the operatives of terror groups based in Pakistan have been able to transfer funds to their Indian counterparts. Again, most notably, this terrorism financing model uses commodities as a mechanism to transfer value across financial jurisdictions, rendering detection impossible.

(See Figure 2)

Figure 2– Diagrammatic Representation of Terrorism Financing using Trade Based Money Laundering

Funds raised by terror groups outside India in Pakistan to provided to operatives based in Saudi Arabia

Pakistan Cross border movement of funds and commodities

The traders divert the difference in the acquisition price and the market price to financial facilitators of terror groups in Kashmir

India

Cash received and deployed towards operational and organisational costs of terror groups in Kashmir

Traders linked to terrorist groups in Kashmir/Delhi import commodities from traders in Pakistan

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And more importantly, the funds which are provided outside India in Saudi Arabia, ostensibly in Pakistan are raised through a labyrinth of front organisations which operate under the garb of charities. For instance, Lashkare-Toiba’s charity arm Jamaat-udDawa (JUD) which was banned by the United Nations under Security Council resolution 1267, rechristened itself as Falah-eInsaniat Foundation (FIF) in Pakistan. At present, the FIF operates freely in Pakistan and elsewhere despite being on the UN watch since March 2012. The FIF has an operational website www.devotedtohumanity.org and it presently operates in 11 locations outside Pakistan such as Afghanistan, East Timor, Gaza, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria and Yemen, including some major conflict zones. The FIF has recently started soliciting funds for providing rehabilitation packages to Rohingya refugees. (See Image)

The Morass Though diversion or abuse of Haj pilgrimage packages is relatively new in India, nevertheless, it has simply borrowed the architecture of a basic hawala transaction which in turn has been married and customised to the religious tourism industry.

The key challenge to counter this mechanism is that, it is simply impossible to identify suspect transactions as there are no physical movement of funds and the contributors are innocent pilgrims who are not aware about the diversion done at the travel agent’s end.

While money laundering cleans dirty money, terrorism financing dirties clean money

On the other hand, under invoicing in trade based money laundering is perhaps, the most commonly used money laundering mechanism by tax evaders and black money hoarders. India’s jewellery industry especially, some of the diamond traders in the past have been found to have used this trade based money laundering technique to launder funds.

Image – FIF poster soliciting funds for Rohingya Refugees dated 10 Sep, 2017 Source: Twitter FIF Pakistan (@ FIF_NGO)

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Adopting trade based money laundering for funding terrorism may not be new to India as well and there are strong precedents for this mechanism.

In 2011, the NIA registered a case against Hizbul Mujahideen operatives for financing terrorism using cross border trade mechanisms between India and Pakistan.

The NIA registered a case under RC-11/2011/NIA/DLI alleging that the cross border barter trade has been misused by terror groups to pump money into India.

Trade As CBM However, what should alarm the sentinels is that this trade based money laundering mechanism has been repeatedly used by terror groups. Even more challenging is the fact that cross border trade between India and Pakistan is one of the key confidence building measure (CBM) and no government would attempt to wish away the cross

border trade to stop terrorism financing, risking escalation of tensions. And incidentally, inspite of recent heightened tensions between India and Pakistan which even led to the surgical strikes, cross border trade was not impacted at all.

Hence, policy planners have to devise counter strategies factoring the larger interest.

To begin with, Indian policy planners have to identify price anomalies of commodities which are imported and exported using the India-Pakistan cross border trade mechanism. If such an architecture and supporting infrastructure is implemented specifically for India-Pakistan cross border trade, the sentinels will be able to easily identify price anomalies, in turn leading to eradication of under invoicing and over invoicing.

Both of the above terrorism financing models are in fact age old money laundering

Challenging is the fact that cross border trade between India and Pakistan is one of the key confidence building measure (CBM)

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mechanisms which have been in vogue among transnational criminal groups. Superficially, money laundering and terrorism financing appear to be synonymous, but both are in fact radically different.

While money laundering cleans dirty money, terrorism financing dirties clean money.

To that extent, terrorism financing predominantly raises income from legitimate sources which are then deployed for terrorist attacks.

Countering these mechanisms with anti-money laundering (AML) tools will not be effective as the focus of AML programmes is to identify illicit proceeds alone and not income from legitimate sources. This is the core strength of terrorist financing networks which needs to be studied and countered.

Terrorism financing is not about transferring astronomical sums of money at one go unlike money laundering. Terrorism financing mostly pertains to transferring small operational sums to modules at regular intervals. Counter terrorism finance programmes have to be devised in such a manner that such transfer of value using various mechanisms are identified and stopped. Funds to terror groups may not travel through the same mechanism as expected. The mechanisms keep evolving, placing an imperative on the policy planners to devise strategies which are also evolving instead of being static.

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Be The

Smart Enemy To stay a step ahead in the future, it is necessary to try and figure out the possible methods the enemy might employ and plan and prepare for those eventualities. To be a smart enemy, extensive planning and intensive preparation is indispensable

S

o much has already been discussed and debated on the recent Indo-China border-standoff, particularly the military angle.

Most of these debates circled

around India’s military capability versus China in the scenario of a limited conflict in the border area. The most glamorous aspect of these discussions was the air power balance which, as rightly believed, would determine the

The historic attack on Pearl Harbour

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outcome of a conflict in the region. While it is understood that China has the capability to rapidly mobilise its ground forces to the frontline areas along the border in a comparatively short time span, the same is not possible with air power at the present moment as far as China is concerned.

It is an obvious fact that China has a much larger and potent air force as compared to India, with about 600 fourth generation fighters among the more than 2000 combat aircraft in service.

But as rightly pointed out by some analysts, India has a clear geographical/terrain advantage as far as air power is concerned.

Another plus point is the skill level of the man behind the machine. While Indian pilots are well trained and are considered to be one of the best in the world in terms of air combat skills, China has just started making efforts to change the way its combat pilots are trained. The Chinese training regimen until recently was heavily influenced by the older Soviet model, which severely restricted pilot autonomy in air combat. China realised this at some point in the process of modernising its air force, and has now restructured its training process to address the existing limitations. The primary focus is on enhancing pilot autonomy, and reflex in air combat by engaging the rookies in real time combat simulations and exercises. PLAAF has also changed its recruitment method to pick the right ones and priority is being given to college graduates.

At any point in time, particularly in such terrain conditions, air power will determine the outcome of a conflict. Almost all of the Chinese airfields along the border with India are located above 4000 meters which poses serious limitations for the fighters as they cannot take off with full fuel and weapon load. In addition, PLAAF as of now operates only three Il78 mid-air refuelling aircraft that could feed the fourth generation fighters. Their indigenous H-6U tanker cannot refuel 4th gen fighters due to probe-hose mismatch. Moreover, most of the airfields that could function as forward vectors in launching strike sorties against India are not sufficiently equipped. They lack hardened shelters, underground fuel storage and ammunition dumps. While on our side the IAF bases are all located in the plains which allow the fighters to takeoff with full fuel and weapon load allowing longer on-station time.

The Indian bases are also well equipped and supplied.

Arjun Subramanian P The writer is a non-resident consultant for the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) and a freelance defence analyst. Previously, he was Associate Fellow, CAPS. He is also the owner of a software firm.

The air power scenario at present no doubt looks favourable to our military, but we ought to be cautious However, even at present, the presence of high altitude limitations doesn’t mean that PLAAF cannot strike at targets inside India. China has modernised and equipped its H-6 bomber as a stand-off strike platform. The aircraft, armed with the DH-10A/KD-20 ALCM, will be capable of launching stand-off

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precision strikes against targets across the border. Recently, photographs of an improved variant of the KD-20 ALCM were found circulating online. This new version of KD-20 appears to have been incorporated with an optical homing device to enhance precision.

Nevertheless, this capability alone will not ensure air dominance in the battle theatre. Air dominance would demand the sustained presence of fighters in the contested airspace in and around the battle area.

While all looks greener from our side, it is to be never forgotten what Admiral Kimmel said in the movie “Pearl Harbour”, “a smart enemy hits you exactly where you think you are safe”. History is replete with examples of militaries surmounting the barriers considered unsurmountable by their enemy and ultimately winning the battle. Brilliant commanders have always found ways to overcome geographical/ terrain challenges to meet the military objectives laid before them, and at times these were simple techniques and ideas applied efficiently. During World War II, Pearl Harbour was thought to be safe for the fact that it was too shallow for an aerial torpedo attack. All the Japanese Navy did was to attach a simple wooden plank to their Type-91 aerial torpedoes to solve this problem. The horizontal planks attached to the tail acted as stabilisers, preventing the torpedo from diving too deep before cruising towards their target.

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Fifhter aircrafts used by Indian and Chinese air force

Again, the feared German Panzer divisions were thought to be invincible until the T-34s started rolling on the snow covered terrain. The Soviets applied the design technique of sloped armour to give more shield without sacrificing too much fire power and mobility, and as a result the Nazi AT rounds just bounced off the T-34s while their powerful main gun ripped apart Hitler’s armoured divisions. Moreover, the application of simple laws of physics like giving the T-34s broader tracks for more traction in the snow and an ingenious track design and lubrication

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ensured that the tanks rolled unstopped while the German units got stuck in the snow.

The Maginot Line is also an unforgettable pointer. There are many such incidents of military geniuses that have turned the course of history. So there are enough lessons, and sufficient number of reminders so as to not be complacent and always strive to look for different eventualities before the enemy could figure it out.

The air power scenario at present no doubt looks favourable to our military, but we ought to be

cautious that in future we might not enjoy these advantages.

China is slowly addressing all its weakness and in a decade or so might emerge as a completely modern and a more powerful fighting force that can overcome the terrain challenge and other limitations.

In the future, probably in a decade or two, the whole lot of its younger fighter pilots might turn out to be as skilled as their other well trained counterparts around the world as a result of the reforms in pilot training being implemented

by PLAAF. Moreover, PLAAF might acquire more mid-air tankers that could feed 4th gen fighters. There is speculation that China might modify its indigenous Y-20 design to serve as in-flight refueller in the future. More refuellers would mean that PLAAF fighters need not entirely depend on the vulnerable high altitude airbases near the border to launch strikes.

Already, China seems to have reverse engineered the Russian UPAZ-1A refuelling pod that is part of the Il-78 tanker aircraft.

In a recent exercise, some of the J-15s operating out of the CV-001 carrier was found to be equipped with a UPAZ-1A like pod to buddy refuel other J-15 aircraft on simulated strike missions. While buddy refuelling might not be the perfect solution, it is to be acknowledged that it could possibly be used if that is the best interim solution available to PLAAF. The decade or more breathing time might seem comforting at present, but it is quite probable

Quite possible that China might be looking outside to borrow ideas to address the altitude limitation that the Chinese Air Force is looking to find quicker solutions to overcome the altitude limitations. Looking at the equipping trend of the Chinese military since the nineties, it is quite obvious that China studies other advanced militaries to find solutions to overcome its own challenges. Most of the tactical and strategic solutions that had been implemented so far were adopted from Soviet Russia, while some were borrowed from western militaries. Hence, it is quite possible that China might be looking outside to borrow ideas to address the altitude limitation. A couple of years ago there were some news reports about Israeli Air Force trying to develop short field operating capability by using rocket assisted take-off. It is quite possible that China might adopt this technique to launch fighters at their max take-off weight from airfields in Tibet. China has a considerably advanced military aviation industry that is capable of making this modification of attaching jettisonable small rocket

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boosters to their fighters. If Israel could do it on their F-16 so can China as it is to be noted that the J-10 fighter is said to be based on the Israeli Lavi design which itself is based on the Lockheed Martin F-16. Nevertheless, to really prepare for an Indian contingency, the first step from China would be to equip and improve the infrastructure of key air bases in Tibet to handle sufficient fighter squadrons.

This cannot be done overnight and would take several months which would act as a warning sign to prepare our defences.

The decision to not use Indian air power in 1962 turned out to be a blunder that resulted in a military defeat for India. There are various arguments from academicians, both Indian and foreign, to former policy makers on the reasons why airpower was not used in 1962. Chief among those reasons is that India overestimated Chinese air power capability at that time.

Fortunately, at present, we are well aware of our advantages and the other side’s limitations. But this should be no reason to underestimate a potential enemy and be complacent. Victory in battle is mostly determined by how well we prepare ourselves during peace. To stay a step ahead in the future, it is necessary to try and figure out the possible methods the enemy might employ, and plan and prepare for any eventuality. To be a smart enemy, extensive planning and intensive preparation is indispensable.

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Effect Of

Terrorism In India There is no option but to carry on with sustained action against those who are waging a war against the Indian State as well as those who provide respectability to such elements. The action against those involved in funding of terror activities in the Valley is critical to these efforts, though it is going to be long haul

E

vents have been moving fast in and for Pakistan since the last week of July when Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the country’s Supreme Court from

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being a member of the country’s parliament, Majlis-e-shoora, leaving him with no real choice but to resign from the premiership.

He was immediately replaced by Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, a die-

hard supporter who had stood

by Nawaz Sharif during and after the 1999 Kargil crisis when the latter’s government was overthrown by the then Army Chief, General Parvez Musharraf.

Ironically, Musharraf himself has been declared a fugitive in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination case by the same Supreme Court.

It is widely believed that Abbasi, though well qualified in his own right to be the prime minister, has been anointed by the party to keep the seat warm till Nawaz’s brother Shahbaz Sharif enters the Majlis through a by-election and takes over the reins of the troubled nation.

Coming as it does, just a year ahead of the general elections due next summer, this development further undermines the ability of the political system to become the real power centre in a country that was famously

Amit Cowshish The writer is a former Financial Adviser (Acquisition) and Additional Secretary, Ministry of Defence. He has been associated with defence planning, budget, revenue and capital procurement and other matters concerning financial management in defence.

He is presently a Distinguished Fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Given these circumstances, the Pakistani Generals should be a happy lot for they can continue to pull the strings from behind the scenes described as an international migraine by the former US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright several years ago.

BRICS Jolt Just how severe this migraine has become can be gauged by the joint statement made at the end of the BRICS summit on 4 September 2017 with China joining the other

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four countries, including India, in declaring Pakistan-based terror outfits, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba(LeT) as terror organisations.

Though within a couple of days of the BRICS declaration, China tried to mollycoddle its ‘good brother and iron friend’ Pakistan by saying that the latter had done its best to combat terrorism for which ‘some countries’ – read India and the US – need to give it full credit, the earlier acquiescence on China’s part could not have but bruised the Pakistani Deep State, especially the military.

But Pakistan is familiar with such minor raps on its knuckles. It has been repeatedly chastened in the past by the USA which has pumped in billions of dollars into Pakistan to help it fight the war on terror, knowing full well all the time that it was being double-crossed.

US-Pak Hostility The relations between the two are now on the downward spiral but with China fast replacing the earlier benefactor, the resilient Deep State could hardly be bothered. The Deep State, fully backed by China, virtually faces no challenge at the present juncture.

The isolated voices within Pakistan raising concerns about the CPEC being a one-way road to a huge debt trap are unlikely to gather momentum. Not much seems to be happening in Balochistan either and the sectarian violence in the other areas seems to be at a level which the Pakistan society has generally got used to.

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Given these circumstances, the Pakistani Generals should be a happy lot for they can continue to pull the strings from behind the scenes, as they have been doing since Musharraf’s ouster, without any challenge whatsoever from any quarter and with China standing solidly behind their back to safeguard its own economic and strategic interests.

One really wonders what happened to the political solution that India and Pakistan are supposed to have hammered out under Musharraf Fallout In Kashmir What impact these developments in Pakistan are likely to have on terrorism in India in general and the situation in the Kashmir Valley in particular? It is difficult to say for, given the complexity of the relations between India and Pakistan, any minor development could take an unexpected turn.

Nevertheless, it would be reasonably safe to draw some inferences based on the past conduct of the Deep State in Pakistan.

First, it will be wrong to expect any let up in the visceral paranoia that the Pakistani military has of India for after all this is what sustains the Military Inc. The USA had been somewhat of a sobering influence, especially since 26/11, though it worked only up to a point. China, with its growing influence on Pakistan, will have no reason to continue with that approach. If anything,

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Leaders (from left: Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin of Russia and President of Brazil Michel Temerharat) at BRICS 2017

it would suit its economic and strategic interest to promote Pakistan military’s contrived existentialist paranoia.

Chinese Geopolitics India will, therefore, have to be prepared to deal with this new situation with the USA’s diminishing leverage with Pakistan and China looking the other way as long as the Pakistani military does not start indulging in the kind of adventurism that undermines the CPEC project in which it is investing huge sums of money. It is the new threshold under which the animosity between India and Pakistan could play out in future.

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This is not to say that worsening of the situation is imminent.

With the winters around the corner, this is anyway not the right time for Pakistan to up the ante. The point essentially is that India will have to be prepared to deal with the situation more by itself than has been the case in the past and not be taken in by the global condemnation of Pakistan’s duplicity in dealing with terrorism.

No Counter-terror Plan Second, it is becoming increasingly clearA that while the launch at Satish DhawanChina, Space Centre, world, including may Andhra Pradesh chastise Pakistan for hobnobbing with the jihadists of all hues and

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inclinations, there isn’t much by way of a plan of action with them, or even the UN, to actually rein it in or even make it realise that the policies it has followed all these years has only brought misery to its masses.

India cannot also make Pakistan change its heart and, therefore, should stop trying to assume that responsibility, beyond what humanism in mutual relations demands. It must concentrate on dealing with the situation internally through a series of punitive and developmental measures. It has done reasonably well for itself by containing the situation in the Valley which, at one time, seemed to be getting completely out of hand. The gains need to be consolidated.

There is no option but to carry on with sustained action against those who are waging a war against the Indian State as well as those who provide respectability to such elements. The action against those involved in funding of terror activities in the Valley is critical to these efforts, though it is going to be long haul. It would do more harm than good if this action is not carried to its logical end.

Revisit Talks Third, there a need to revisit the approach to those who have been advocating talks with Pakistan as well as the separatists in the Valley. There may be merit in the government taking the stand that terror and talks cannot go together but there is no harm in being more indulgent

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towards those who want to take on the mantle of the playing the peaceniks. What harm can come out of their efforts? Who knows, they may even succeed in putting some workable solution on the table.

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No harm in being more indulgent towards those who want to take on the mantle of playing the peaceniks upon all the time. While on this, one really wonders what happened to the political solution that India and Pakistan are supposed to have hammered out several years back which got derailed because of Musharraf’s ouster.

Musharraf Plan: Hot Air? This is a bit strange. If whatever permanent solution had been agreed upon was acceptable to both the sides and it was such a wonderfully enduring solution why did it crumble with Musharraf’s ouster and, more to the point, why could it not be revived immediately after a civilian government assumed power in Pakistan?

A picture bringing into eminence the Rohingya crisis

Alternatively, their efforts may end up establishing the futility of talking both with Pakistan and the separatists in the Valley and expose them as being bereft of any concrete suggestion for a ‘political settlement’ which they keep harping

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Fourth, the opportunity provided by the current state of things in Pakistan needs to be exploited for consolidating internal security and dispelling disinformation campaign about alleged human rights violation in the Valley. A new dimension of this problem is emerging in the form of repatriation of the Rohingyas from Jammu. The issue needs to be handled with a great care lest it becomes a propaganda tool in the hands of the Deep State.

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war heroes

UNSTINTED BRAVERY

The Hero From Arunachal

Hangpan Dada’s raw courage and utter disregard to personal safety led to the killing of all four Pakistan-backed terrorists. His act of courage and supreme sacrifice led him to be awarded the Ashok Chakra

A

t a height of 13,000 feet, it isn’t easy to stay on top of the enemy. But Hangpan Dada did more than just stay on top. It was sheer grit and determination displayed by Havildar Hangpan Dada, who killed four intruding terrorists before laying down his life in the harsh and icy Himalayan range of North Kashmir, that won him the Ashok Chakra.

The Man Hailing from Boduria village in far-flung Arunachal Pradesh, the Havildar, who was popularly known as ‘Dada’ among his team, was posted at the high mountain range since late last year. Enrolled in the Assam Regiment of the Army in 1997, Dada was posted with the 35 Rashtriya Rifles, a force carved out for counterinsurgency operations. Born on 2 October 1979, near Khonsa District in Arunachal Pradesh,

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as his loved ones recalled, he was a fun-spirited person. His elder brother Laphang Dada recalled Hangpan was mischievous and had used to be really active, often “climbing trees, getting fruits from up there and eating with his

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Havildar Hangpan Dada with his wife

friends”. Father Pradeep, priest of Don Bosco Church in Borduria had all good things to say about Havildar Hangpan. According to him, he met Dada several times and everyday he arrived, he saw Dada already praying at the altar.

Saved A Life Somhang Lamra, a childhood friend of Hangpan could not stop emphasising how he owed his life to Hangpan. He narrated an incident when he almost drowned but was saved by Hangpan at the last moment. He says, “I am here in front of you because of Hangpan…I am still alive because of Hangpan Dada.” He stated how physically fit he was. Havildar Hangpan reportedly told the priest to pray for him when he was posted to Jammu and Kashmir.

The Moment Of Truth Havildar Dada was posted to 4 Assam Regiment on 24 January 2008. The NCO served with the regiment at Barrackpore, Kargil, Lucknow and Multuk (Manipur). In 2016, Havildar Hangpan Dada was posted to 35 Rashtriya Rifles from 11 March till the date he made the supreme sacrifice for the country. He was assigned the Kupwara district of Kashmir. This area lies pretty close to the Line of Control and the soldiers here maintain strict vigil at all times.

On 26 May 2016, according to Major Amirtha Raj, one of the soldiers spotted suspicious movement on the Shamshabari Range at around 6am and informed authority. This suspicious movement was later confirmed to be of four terrorists

who were entering the Indian territory. It was then that the Army intercepted the intruders, and the Operation named Sabu Dada was set in motion. Havildar Hangpan Dada and his section were tasked with chasing and trapping the fleeing terrorists.

Displaying ingenuity and remarkable understanding of the highaltitude terrain, the soldier led the team with incredible speed in the inhospitable snow-bound area.

The soldiers managed to block the escape route of the terrorists and surprised them. Taking the enemy head-on, he then charged the spot where terrorists were holed up and killed two of the terrorists on the spot. Encouraged by Havildar Hangpan, the soldiers carried on their search for the two militants who were not found yet. Hangpan Dada lost no time in engaging them in a fierce encounter that went on for over 24 hours. In the process, he came face to face with the third terrorist and a handto-hand scuffle ensued as they slid down the hill towards the Line of Control. In the exchange of fire, he was grievously injured.

He came face to face with the third terrorist and a hand-tohand scuffle ensued as they slid down the hill towards the Line of Control October 2017

Aarti Kapur Singh The writer has been writing on cinema and lifestyle for more than a decade.

Her interest in cinema is also why she is pursuing a doctorate on the subject.

An ardent foodie, she feels travelling and eating are the best stress-busters.

Undeterred, the soldier went after the remaining terrorists. However, despite bleeding profusely, the brave Havildar managed to kill the intruders. After Hangpan Dada had taken three terrorists singlehandedly, his actions led to the elimination of the fourth terrorist as well.

Citation Hangpan Dada sacrificed his life for the nation. That night, his wife Chasen Lowan received a call and got the news of her husband’s martyrdom.

The presence of mind of Dada, who is survived by his wife Chasen Lowang, 10-year-old daughter Roukhin and six-yearold son Senwang, saved the lives of his team members who came under heavy fire from the terrorists, and it led to the killing all four Pakistan-backed terrorists. His act of courage and supreme sacrifice led him to be awarded the Ashok Chakra.

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