2040 LRTP Tech Memo #5: Freight and Intermodal Forecasts

Technical Memorandum #5 Freight and Intermodal Systems

February 3, 2015

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY T HE MOVEMENT OF GOODS THROUGH OUR PORTS , ON OUR RAILS AND ON OUR ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY . E FFICIENT AND RELIABLE ACCESS TO THE RAIL FACILITIES AND PORTS ARE CRITICAL FOR OUR REGION ’ S ABILITY TO COMPETE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY .

Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95). North Florida includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport, and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 200 million persons or 63% of the U.S. population is easily served by rail and 63 million persons or 20% of the population is reachable in one day by truck. We serve as the gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our region’s position as America’s Logistic Center.

Florida’s strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the US. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.

The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our region’s ability to compete in the global economy. To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements, investments in freight-related projects are needed.

The following major freight and intermodal project needs were identified through various planning efforts of the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO), Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT), Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), Ocean Highway and Port Authority (Port of Fernandina) and the Jacksonville Aviation Authority.      

Mile Point Navigation Improvements Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Rail capacity projects for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC Intermodal Yard Improvements and access for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC North Area/Jacksonville Rail Corridor Port access improvements at the Port of Fernandina

The total cost of the needs is $3.4 billion (in present day costs). In addition to these needs, future needs that were identified based on the market demand analysis include: 

The need for additional rail intermodal facility capacity beyond the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) at Dames Point. Currently the FEC’s and Norfolk Southern’s regional intermodal facilities are operating near practical capacity. About 1 million intermodal container twenty-foot equivalency units or (TEUs) are being shipped in North Florida today. This market is anticipated to grow to 2.8 to 4.3 million TEUs by the year 2040. Additional intermodal facility capacity is needed to meet this demand. One potential solution to meet this need is the development of a public-private partnership for a joint-use intermodal facility.

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Additional track improvement projects beyond the adopted needs plan may be needed. The planned operation of commuter rail, and potentially intercity passenger rail service by Amtrak or a private operator, will place increased demand on the rail track operational capacity within the region. Several system bottlenecks are likely to restrict the ability to meet the rail service demand. These include the Springfield Switch, FEC Rail Crossing of the St. Johns River and the Crawford Diamond crossing of CSX and Norfolk Southern. Additional rail operational modeling is needed for the region to identify other bottlenecks and recommend specific solutions to address these needs.

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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................................. III LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................... III INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 CURRENT SITUATION ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 MULTIMODAL FREIGHT NETWORK ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Highways ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Rail ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Ports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Support Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................................... 7 CURRENT FREIGHT MOVEMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 Trucking ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Ports ................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Rail ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Air Cargo ............................................................................................................................................................................ 11 TOP COMMODITIES TYPES ............................................................................................................................................................ 12 FUTURE FREIGHT DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................ 27 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................................................... 27 FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................................... 27 PORT INTERMODAL ..................................................................................................................................................................... 29 RAIL ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Rail Intermodal .................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Rail Carload ........................................................................................................................................................................ 36 TRUCK INTERMODAL FORECASTS .................................................................................................................................................... 36 Truck Trips and Volumes .................................................................................................................................................... 36 Growth Rates ..................................................................................................................................................................... 36 AIR CARGO ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 DEMAND VS. CAPACITY ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................. 37 Intermodal Facilities........................................................................................................................................................... 37 Track Capacity.................................................................................................................................................................... 43 TRUCK MODEL IN THE NERPM-AB .................................................................................................................................. 45 FREIGHT NEEDS ............................................................................................................................................................. 48 ADOPTED NEEDS PLAN ................................................................................................................................................................ 48 ADDITIONAL NEEDS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 48 FUTURE SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT CONCEPT – A REGIONAL INTERMODAL FACILITY.................................................................................... 52 SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................................................... 53

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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1 - Multimodal Freight Network ......................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2 - SIS Connectors ............................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3 - Warehousing, Industrial and Distribution Facilities ....................................................................................... 8 Figure 4 - Top Commodity Imports .............................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 5 - Top 12 Commodity Exports ......................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 6 – Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Truck ......................................................................................... 15 Figure 7 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Carload................................................................................ 16 Figure 8 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Intermodal Container ......................................................... 17 Figure 9 –Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Air .............................................................................................. 18 Figure 10 - Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Port .......................................................................................... 19 Figure 11 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Truck ..................................................................................... 20 Figure 12 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Carload........................................................................... 21 Figure 13 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Intermodal ..................................................................... 22 Figure 14 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Air ......................................................................................... 23 Figure 15 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Port ....................................................................................... 24 Figure 16 - Summary of GDP Forecasts ....................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 17 - Moderate and Aggressive TEU Port Forecast ............................................................................................ 30 Figure 18 - Summary of 2040 Moderate Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs) ........................................... 31 Figure 19 - Summary of 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs) .......................................... 32 Figure 20 - 2040 Moderate Forecast of Rail Intermodal.............................................................................................. 34 Figure 21 - 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Rail Intermodal............................................................................................. 35 Figure 22 - Demand Capacity Analysis for Intermodal Facilities .................................................................................. 38 Figure 23 - Rail System Bottlenecks ............................................................................................................................. 44 Figure 24 - 2010 Truck Volume Map ............................................................................................................................ 46 Figure 25 - 2040 Truck Volume Map ............................................................................................................................ 47 Figure 26 - Adopted Needs Plan Freight Projects Map ................................................................................................ 51

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Total Tons of Commodities (millions of tons per year) .................................................................................... 9 Table 2. Top and Origins and Destinations of Truck Freight Passing through North Florida ....................................... 10 Table 3. Top Origins and Destinations of Rail Freight Passing through North Florida ................................................. 10 Table 4. Top Consignees .............................................................................................................................................. 25 Table 5. Top Warehouse Commodities........................................................................................................................ 26 Table 6. Summary of TEUs for North Florida Port Facilities (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina) ................................. 29 Table 7. Summary of Rail Intermodal Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 33 Table 8. Growth Factors for Trucks.............................................................................................................................. 36 Table 9. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origins and Destinations (Average Daily Trip Ends) .................................... 39 Table 10. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origin and Destination Volumes (AADT) ................................................... 40 Table 11. 2040 Truck Trip (Average Daily Trip Ends) ................................................................................................... 41 Table 12. 2040 Truck Trip AADTs ................................................................................................................................. 42 Table 13. Summary of NERPM-AB Truck Model Inputs ............................................................................................... 45 Table 14. Adopted Needs Plan Freight and Intermodal Projects................................................................................. 49

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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

FREIGHT AND INTERMODAL SYSTEMS A NALYSIS OF THE F REIGHT S YSTEM WITHIN THE R EGION I S AN I MPORTANT A SPECT OF U NDERSTANDING THE E CONOMIC I MPACTS OF T RANSPORTATION I NVESTMENT AND IN P RIORITIZING P ROJECTS FOR F UTURE I NVESTMENTS .

Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) documented in the North Florida Freight, Logistics & Intermodal Framework Plan. Additional market analysis was performed and development of a truck model for use in the 2040 Northeast Florida Regional Planning Model – Activity Based (NERPM-AB) are provided.

INTRODUCTION

Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95) and includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point, Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 63 percent of the U.S. population is reachable by rail. About 20 percent of the population is reachable by truck in one day. We serve as the gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our region’s position as America’s Logistic Center.

THE SAFE, EFFECICIENT AND RELIABILE MOVEMENT OF GOODS IS ESSENTIAL TO THE ECONOMIC COMPETITIVESS OF OUR REGION.

Florida’s strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the U.S. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.

THE BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY’S SHIPPERS IS “TIME TO MARKET”. THE JOURNAL OF COMMERCE'S LANDMARK SURVEY OF THE WORLD’S TOP 1,000 BLUE CHIP SHIPPERS AND BENIFICIAL CARGO OWNERS RESULTED IN THE FOLLOWING KEY

The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly in North Florida. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our region’s ability to compete in the global economy.

FACTORS AS THE PRIMARY NEEDS OF THESE STAKEHOLDERS:

43%

OF THE SURVEYED BELIEVE SERVICE

RELIABILITY IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN PORT/TERMINAL SELECTION.

To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements to and from the rail and port facilities, investments in freight-related projects are needed by the year 2040.

38% PERCENT BELIEVE COMPETITIVE FREIGHT RATE IS THE PRIME DRIVER IN THE SELECTION DETERMINATION.

This report summarizes the methodology used to understand the existing and future freight demand within the region to support decision-making in the 2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan.

12%

OF THOSE SURVEYED STATED THAT

SPEED OF SERVICE OR IN-TRANSIT TIME

WAS THE KEY DETERMINANT.

A market-driven approach is considered in which the demand and analysis is presented from the freight network user’s perspective. This effort builds on the work performed in prior efforts of the North Florida 1

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan recreational and shopping trips, few trips in Florida are not impacted by the SIS. Virtually every freight shipment in the state, as well as nearly every visitor and business traveler, will use the SIS at some point in its journey.”

(Source: Strategic Intermodal System Plan)

CURRENT SITUATION MULTIMODAL FREIGHT NETWORK The level of connectivity to the North Florida region is a significant economic advantage for our region. I-95 serves as the major highway gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million persons. I-10 connects our region along an eastwest route to the southwest, western states, and Pacific Ocean. A third interstate, I-295 serves as a beltway around Jacksonville that connects both of these interstates and provides direct access to major Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT) marine terminals at Blount Island and Dames Point and rail intermodal facilities for CSX and Norfolk Southern railroads. I-75, the nation’s central spine connecting Florida, southeastern and mid-western states is located 60 miles to the west of our region. North Florida provides the rail gateway into Florida. Norfolk Southern and FEC railroads have their Florida termini in North Florida. CSX’s and FEC both maintain their corporate headquarters in North Florida.

Genesee & Wyoming Inc., which operates major short line railroads across the US and in Australia, maintains its operations headquarters in Jacksonville.

HIGHWAYS The major SIS highway facilities within our region are shown on Figure 2 and are summarized below.       

The following summarizes the major components of the freight network within North Florida including the Florida Department of Transportation’s (FDOT’s) Strategic Intermodal System (SIS). Figure 1 on the following page shows the location of the major elements of the multimodal freight network in North Florida.

FDOT’s Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) is: “a statewide system of high-priority transportation facilities. It includes the state’s largest and most significant commercial service airports, spaceport, deepwater seaports, freight rail terminals, passenger rail and intercity bus terminals, rail corridors, waterways and highways. These facilities are the workhorses of Florida’s transportation system. They carry more than 99 percent of all enplaned commercial air passengers in the state, virtually 100 percent of all waterborne freight tonnage, almost 100 percent of all freight moving on the rail system, and more than 68 percent of all truck traffic and 54 percent of total traffic on the State Highway System.

With the exception of some localized commuting, 2

I-10 I-95 I-295 and SR 9B US 301/SR 200 US 1 from I-295 to the Georgia State Line SR 23 First Coast Expressway (future) SIS Connectors o Cecil Spaceport (Planned); SR 23 First Coast Expressway to New World Avenue to 6th Street to entrance. o Jacksonville Amtrak Station (Planned Drop); I-95 to New Kings Road and Martin Luther Jr. King Parkway to Clifford Lane. o Jacksonville CSX Intermodal Terminal; I-295 to Pritchard Road to Sportsman Club Road to entrance. o Jacksonville FEC Intermodal Terminal (Bowden Yard); I-95 to SR 202 J.T. Butler Boulevard to US 1 Philips Highway to entrance. o Jacksonville Greyhound (Planned Drop); I-95 to Forsyth Street to Pearl Street to Bay Street entrance, exit to Forsyth Street to Broad Street to Adams Street to I-95. o Jacksonville International Airport; I-295 to Duval Road to South International Airport Boulevard to Air Cargo Access Road to cargo entrance. o Jacksonville International Airport; I-95 to SR 202 Airport Road to passenger terminal. o Jacksonville Multimodal Terminal Center (Planned Add); I-95 to Forsyth Street to Lee Street to entrance; exit to Lee Street to Adams Street to I-95.

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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

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the SIS. This terminal serves distribution facilities and shippers in Florida accessing the facility using I-95 and I10. Preliminary estimates show this facility generates approximately 300,000 lifts (a lift is the move of one container on or off a rail car) per year which would equate to about 600,000 truck trips per year.

Naval Air Station Jacksonville; I-295 to US 17 Roosevelt Boulevard to entrance.

Naval Station Mayport; I-295 to US 90 Atlantic Boulevard to SR A1A to entrance.

Port of Jacksonville Blount Island; I-295 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to Dave Rawls Boulevard to entrance.

Part of Jacksonville Dames Point; I-295 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to New Berlin Road.

Port of Jacksonville Dames Point Cruise Ship Terminal; I-295 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to August Drive to entrance Port of Jacksonville Dames Point Cruise Ship Terminal; I-95 to SR 105 Heckscher Drive to August Drive to entrance.

Port of Jacksonville; Talleyrand; I-95 to US 1 MLK Jr. Parkway to Phoenix Avenue to 21st Street to North Talleyrand Avenue to 11th Street entrance.

Port of Fernandina; I-95 to SR A1A to 8th Street to Dade Street to Front Street to entrance.

The Norfolk Southern intermodal terminal (Simpson Yard), located east of the I-295 interchange with Pritchard Road, is included as a hub in the SIS. This terminal serves distribution facilities and shippers in Florida accessing the facility using I-95 and I-10.

Preliminary estimates show this facility generates approximately 225,000 lifts per year which would equate to about 450,000 truck trips. Norfolk Southern also operates an auto distribution facility with access from Old Kings Road north of Pritchard Road in the project study area. This facility serves the Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT) auto terminal and other commercial shippers of automobile traffic destined for in the southeastern US. This facility is currently not part of the SIS.

RAIL From a rail perspective, North Florida is located at a key junction for three railroads, CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC. CSX, headquartered in Jacksonville, maintains the largest rail network in Florida and will soon provide enhanced connectivity to the Dames Point and Blount Island marine terminals with the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) at Dames Point. Norfolk Southern maintains its Florida terminus in northwest Jacksonville and provides direct service to the Talleyrand Marine terminals, other key sites along the St. Johns River, and inland facilities. FEC maintains maintains its corporate operations center and its northern terminus in Jacksonville including a river bridge crossing in Downtown that facilitates connections to the CSX and Norfolk Southern railroads. Genesee & Wyoming Inc., which operates major short line railroads across the US and in Australia, maintains its operations headquarters in Jacksonville. The following summarizes the SIS and other major rail intermodal facilities in the study area.

AN INTERMODAL FREIGHT SHIPMENT IS ONE THAT IS MOVED VIA A STANDARDIZED REUSABLE SHIPPING BOXES CALLED CONTAINERS.

TYPICAL MARINE CONTAINERS ARE 40-FT LONG AND TYPICAL TRUCK CONTAINERS ARE 53FT LONG. EACH CONTAINER CAN CARRY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 TONS OF FREIGHT. THE UNITS OF MEASURE ARE EXPRESSED IN TWENTYFOOT EQUIVALENCY UNITS OR TEUS.

The CSX intermodal terminal (Jacksonville Yard), located just west of I-295 at the Pritchard Road interchange, is a major intermodal facility within CSX’s operations and is included as a hub in the SIS. This terminal serves distribution facilities and shippers in Florida accessing the facility using I-95 and I-10. Preliminary estimates show this facility generates approximately 300,000 lifts per year which would equate to about 600,000 truck trips.

CSX also operates an auto distribution facility in the study area with access from Commonwealth Boulevard to the south. This facility is similar in size and services to

The Florida East Coast Industries intermodal terminal (Bowden Yard), located west of US 1 Philips Highway near SR 202 J. T. Butler Boulevard is included as a hub in 5

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan the Norfolk Southern facility. This facility is currently not part of the SIS.

40 feet of deep-water. A second terminal is planned at Dames Point but a tenant is currently not identified.

AMTRAK, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, operates a passenger intermodal facility on the northwest side of Jacksonville off of US 23/SR 15 New Kings Road. This facility serves approximately 30,000 passengers per year. This facility is part of the SIS.

The Talleyrand Terminal, located north of Downtown on the west bank of the St. Johns River, is a 173-acre terminal that has 4,780 linear feet of berthing space on 40 feet of deep-water. The Talleyrand terminal offers two 50-LT capacity rubber tired gantry cranes, both of which straddle four rail spurs totaling 4,800 linear feet Talleyrand's on-dock rail facilities are run by Talleyrand Terminal Railroad, Inc., which provides direct switching service for Norfolk Southern and CSX rail lines. The terminal is only 25 minutes from Florida East Coast Railroad's intermodal ramp, and is conveniently located within minutes of interstates I-95 and I-10. Talleyrand is equipped with four container cranes, on-dock rail and 160,000 square feet of transit shed space capable of handling cargo in refrigerated, freezer or ambient conditions. Additionally, a 553,000-square foot warehouse stores a variety of cargoes, including rolls of fine and specialty papers.

The FDOT SIS connectors include the following Rail Connectors    

CSX Eastport Railroad Connector to Blount Island and Dames Point Terminals CSX Connector to CSX Intermodal Facility Talleyrand Terminal Railroad CSX Downtown Jacksonville to Port of Fernandina along US 17 Main Street and SR 200 Buccaneer Trail

PORTS JAXPORT 1 and its maritime partners handle containerized cargo, automobiles, recreational boats and construction equipment, dry and liquid bulks, break-bulk commodities, and oversized and specialty cargoes.

The US Marine Corps Terminal is located on Blount Island and supports deployments by the US Transportation Command. Shipments include roll-on-roll off cargo, intermodal and break bulk cargo.

Blount Island is a 754-acre terminal and is JAXPORT's largest marine facility. It is one of the largest vehicle import/export centers in the United States. The terminal also handles bulk cargo via roll-on/roll-off, heavy lift, and liquid bulk cargo operations. Blount Island has one 112ton whirly crane and eight container cranes (five 50-ton cranes, one 45-ton crane and two 40-ton cranes). The terminal also offers 240,000-square feet of transit shed space and a 90,000-square-foot Container Freight Station for cross-dock efficiency.

A network of privately-owned maritime facilities also operates in Jacksonville’s harbor, and in Northeast Florida.

The Port of Fernandina has deep-water access with 47-ft channel depth and two berths. The Port consistently handles over 225 vessels per year. The Port’s principal cargoes include break bulk cargo 2 consisting of forest products including Kraft liner board, wood pulp, steel and, treated lumber and imports of lumber, wood pulp, hardboard, and steel. The containerized commodities moving through the Port include wood pulp, automobile parts, steel products, beer, frozen foods, machinery, consumer goods just to mention a few.

The Dames Point Marine Terminal (TraPac) is located 10 nautical miles from the Atlantic Ocean, the Dames Point Marine Terminal is home to the 158-acre TraPac Container Terminal, where vessels from Tokyo-based MOL and other carriers offer direct containership service between Jacksonville and ports throughout Asia. The TraPac terminal features new port infrastructure, including roadways, terminal buildings, two 1,200-foot berths and six new Panamax container cranes. This 173acre terminal has 4,780 linear feet of berthing space on

2 1

http://www.portoffernandinamaritimeexchange.org/res ources_port.html

Adapted from http://www.jaxport.com/ 6

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

AVIATION

SUPPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

Although a smaller market relative to tonnage handled by other modes of transportation, aviation services are also part of the region’s freight movement. Several passenger airlines and dedicated all-cargo airlines provide air cargo service at the Jacksonville International Airport (JIA). The airport’s air cargo area has more than 200,000 square feet of warehouse space dedicated to air cargo operations and hundreds of acres of on-airport property suitable for air cargo development. FedEx, UPS, and Airborne all utilize JIA. It is anticipated that Cecil Airport will help support economic development within the region, serving both aviation and aerospace dependent industries. The airport is adjacent to the Cecil Commerce Center and recently was designated a spaceport and “space territory” by the state of Florida (HB59). As a result, the newly named “Cecil Field Spaceport” is included in Space Florida’s Spaceport Master Plan and the SIS.

North Florida maintains a significant amount of support infrastructure such as distribution centers, warehousing, industrial and manufacturing facilities. In fact, this region includes more than 100 million square feet of such space and has added nearly 10 million square feet in the past five years, including 1.1 million square feet in 2012. The opportunity to grow this sector is significant given the amount of developable land at existing sites, as well as growing areas such as Cecil Commerce Center in Duval County just north of Clay County, the Crawford Diamond site in Nassau County, and the Woodstock Industrial Site in Baker County.

Figure 3 on the following page shows the locations of the major warehousing and distribution facilities.

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2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Industrial Sites Date: 6/25/2014

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Figure 3 Page 8

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan The total shipments that originate in, are destined for, or travel through North Florida are summarized in Table 1.

This data is based on the US Department of Transportation’s Freight Analysis Framework data.

CURRENT FREIGHT MOVEMENTS North Florida is the origin or destination of freight moving over roadways and railways in Florida and the Southeast US. The following summarizes some of the key findings of analysis of the current freight and commodity flows within the region.

The top origins and destinations for truck or rail shipments are summarized in Table 2 and Table 3.

Table 1. Total Tons of Commodities (millions of tons per year) Origin and Destination

Truck

Rail

Total

Percentage

34.9

0.0

34.9

18%

and is destined to within Florida and is destined to outside Florida Is destined for the area And originated from within Florida And originated from outside Florida Port related

18.5 8.0

0.2 0.6

18.7 8.6

10% 5%

7.5 8.9 11.7

0.4 11.6 0.6

7.9 20.5 12.3

4% 11% 6%

Through traffic

70.0

18.0

88.0

46%

159.5

31.4

190.9

100%

84%

16%

100%

Internal to area Originates in area

Total Mix Percent Source: Freight Analysis 2012 data.

9

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan Table 2. Top and Origins and Destinations of Truck Freight Passing through North Florida

Florida Locations

Out of State

Through Origins Locations Polk County

Tonnage Mix 10%

Through Destinations Locations Miami-Dade County

Tonnage Mix 14%

Miami-Dade County

8%

Polk County

5%

Hillsborough County Palm Beach County

7% 4%

Hillsborough County Orange County

4% 3%

Broward County Orange County

4% 2%

Savannah, GA New York, NY Baltimore, MD Charleston, WV

13% 5% 4% 2%

Other Origins Total

39% 100%

New York, NY Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Philadelphia, PA Savannah, GA Total

12% 5% 4% 4% 3% 47% 100%

Table 3. Top Origins and Destinations of Rail Freight Passing through North Florida

Florida Locations

Out of State

Through Origins Locations Polk County Hillsborough County Manatee County Miami-Dade County

Tonnage Mix 7% 5% 3% 3%

Charleston, WV Lexington, KY Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Macon, GA

8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 3%

Other Origins Total

10

Through Destinations Locations Polk County Orange County Hillsborough County Miami-Dade County Martin County

Tonnage Mix 13% 11% 11% 10% 5%

Alachua County Sumter County Brevard County

3% 3% 3%

Broward County

3%

New York, NY

3%

45%

35%

100%

100%

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan About 9.3 million tons of international cargo imported to the U.S. pass through North Florida. Domestic waterborne cargo is handled at public and private terminals in North Florida and 62% of the tonnage is petroleum and petroleum products.

TRUCKING North Florida has a large internal truck market (both the origins and the destinations are within North Florida).

North Florida roadways handle 159.5 million tons of freight each year. About 84% of all freight moved within the region is moved on trucks.

RAIL Most of the rail cargo shipped in North Florida originated outside of Florida and is consumed within North Florida.

Table 1 and Table 3 summarize the total tonnage and top origin and destinations for rail cargo.

Freight originating in North Florida that is moved by truck is split between break bulk, bulk and containerized commodities. About 43% of the freight destined for North Florida is bulk cargo with the balance split between break bulk and bulk cargo.

AIR CARGO In 2012, air cargo operators moved more than 0.75 million tons of air cargo through Jacksonville International Airport (JAX). The typical commodities shipped by air are high value and time sensitive.

Shipments of Florida citrus, Vidalia onions, peaches, fish from the Caribbean and flowers from Columbia being shipped to Asia is an emerging air-cargo market. Air cargo delivered on underutilized aircraft flying to Asia represents the greatest recent growth in air cargo.

Cargo travel to and from south and central Florida is the largest market for trucks that travel through the region, but do not stop in North Florida. About 61% of the through freight traveling through North Florida is break bulk cargo, 29% bulk and 10% container.

PORTS About 12.3 million tons of freight are handled each year by the ports in North Florida. The cargo includes freight that is originating in or destined for the six-county region and cargo that uses the port but originates or is destined for another location in the US. International shipments account for 71% of cargo handled by North Florida ports. Over 74% of the imports are from the Caribbean or South America. Of these international shipments, 55% is destined for distribution and consumption in North Florida.

Cargo exported through North Florida ports totaled 4.9 million tons. About 75% of the market is to the Caribbean. About 11% of the freight exported through the port originates in North Florida. Of the exports that move through North Florida ports, 80% are containerized.

More than 70% of the freight originating in North Florida is exported using ports in North Florida. This means 30% of the freight is exported through a port outside of North Florida. For example, some of the goods produced in North Florida are driven to the Port of Savannah and exported for consumption in other markets.

About 4.7 million tons of cargo exported from the US passes through the region each year. Of these, 59% of the freight originated in one of the top ten markets summarized in Table 2 or Table 3. The container market is 47% of the shipments. The balance is split between bulk and break bulk cargo.

11

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

TOP COMMODITIES TYPES The following tables and figures summarize the top commodities       

Top commodity imports.

Top commodity exports.

Top inbound and outbound commodities carried on truck.

Top inbound and outbound commodities carried by rail carload.

Top inbound and outbound commodities by rail intermodal.

Top inbound and outbound commodities by air.

Top inbound and outbound commodities by waterborne.

The information for inbound movements is provided first, followed by outbound movements. In the charts provided, the abbreviation FAK means freight of all kinds.

This data was summarized based on a compilation of various sources published through recent studies including  



North Florida TPO’s Freight, Logistics and Intermodal Framework Plan was used as a foundation.

Real-time data collected through the Automated Commercial Environment of the US Customs and Border Patrol was used. This data was mined using the Trade Intelligence Analysis Tool (TradeIQ™) for import and export data directly from the Automated Commercial Environment System.

Market analysis development by the St. Onge Institute was added to the data summaries and used as a reasonableness check.

12

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Figure 4 - Top Commodity Imports

13

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 80,000 70,000

Millions of Tons

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 -

Figure 5 - Top 12 Commodity Exports

14

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

25,000

Thousands of Tons

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-

Figure 6 – Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Truck 15

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 7,000

6,000

Thousands of Tons

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

-

Figure 7 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Carload

16

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 2,500

Thousands of Tons

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Figure 8 - Top Commodities Inbound Rail Shipments by Intermodal Container

17

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 6

5

Thounds of Tons

4

3

2

1

-

Figure 9 –Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Air

18

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 3,000

2,500

Thousands of Tons

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Figure 10 - Top Commodities Inbound Shipments by Port 19

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 3,500

3,000

Thousands of Tons

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Figure 11 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Truck 20

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 700

600

Thousands of Tons

500

400

300

200

100

0

Figure 12 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Carload 21

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 2,500

Thousands of Tons

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Figure 13 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Rail Intermodal

22

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 1.8 1.6 1.4

Thousands of Tons

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Figure 14 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Air 23

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 800

700

Thousands of Tons

600

500

400

300

200

100

-

Figure 15 - Top Commodities Outbound Shipments by Port 24

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan Table 4. Top Consignees

Consignee Unknown UP�Kymmene Michaels Stores Procurement Amware Pallet Services Beaver Street Fisheries, Inc. Aloe Vera of America Bacardi Bottling Co. Uniliver Southern Tires, Inc. Baxter Healthcare Crossdock Proctor & Gamble Bridgestone Americas The Coca Cola Company Goodnight Altadis Aqua Gulf Transport Fleet Industrial Supply Center Giti Tire Atlanta Consolidated Warehouse Costco Depot Arauco Wood Products General Products International Walgreens

Address N/A Westmont, IL Irving, TX Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville, FL Dallas, TX Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville, FL Jackson, AL Memphis, TN Browns Summit, NC Jacksonville, FL Austell, GA Jacksonville, FL Tampa, FL Blount Island, FL Jacksonville, FL Rancho Cucamonga, CA Austell, GA College Park, GA Atlanta, GA Lake In The Hill, IL Orlando, FL

25

% Total 17.7% 3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

Table 5. Top Warehouse Commodities

Commodity Fresh, Chilled, Frozen & Processed Foods Beverages Alcoholic & Non alcoholic Furniture and Home Furnishings Household Cleaners & Paper Products Apparel and Footwear Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals Office Products and General Use Home Improvement, Building Supplies, Garden Products Auto Aftermarket; Vehicle Dealers Sporting Goods, Athletic Equipment, Hobby Consumer Electronics & Appliances Candy/Card/Gift/Novelty Other Total

26

% Total 23.3% 21.0% 15.1% 9.6% 10.1% 4.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.5% 100%

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

FUTURE FREIGHT DEMAND INTRODUCTION This section summarizes the forecast of freight and intermodal demand for the region. The following sections summarize the following     

Forecasting Methodology Port Intermodal Rail Truck Air

These freight forecasts were used in the development of the truck model in the NERPM-AB and to identify potential needs for freight and intermodal infrastructure to support economic development. The modeling update and future needs are discussed later in this report.

FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Historically, the demand for freight shipments and the gross domestic product (GDP) and gross state product (the equivalent considering only the economic productivity in Florida) are highly correlated. Therefore, the first step in developing a forecast for the regional freight movements was to forecast the anticipated growth in GDP and gross state product for Florida. The GDP-based forecasts are appropriate for estimating the total movement of commodities that include trips that are shipped by rail and port intermodal.

Figure 16 shows the basis of the GDP forecast used in continuous annual growth rates. In the figure, the acronyms used are for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TD).

The historical growth is shown as HIS growth.

The average of the forecasted growth rates shown on the dashed line show the basis of the forecasts provided in this report.

27

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

GDP forecasts used as basis for freight forecasts.

Figure 16 - Summary of GDP Forecasts

28

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 2.

PORT INTERMODAL The forecast of intermodal rail originating and destined for JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina Facilities is based on published historical 20-ft Equivalency Units (TEU) and rail intermodal market analysis. Below is a comparison of the TEU data published for the JAXPORT.

3.

4.

Two levels of forecasts were prepared: a moderate and a more aggressive forecast. The moderate split uses a growth factor of 1.25 times the GDP growth in freight movements. The aggressive forecast uses a factor of 1.75 times GDP. The more aggressive forecast anticipates a greater shift of freight movements moving by intermodal rail than by truck movements today.

In addition to the loaded TEUs that are imported and exported – empty TEUs are also moved - primarily to the Jacksonville Ports. Many of the TEU’s are from the Jacksonville area, but many also travel from locations beyond North Florida to our ports.

Table 6 provides a summary of the historical volume of container movements through the port facilities in North Florida (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina combined).

Figure 17 shows a summary of historical data as reported by the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) and the moderate and aggressive forecasts for loaded commodities in TEUs.

These historical data were used to estimate the number of imported, exported and empty containers traveling through the ports in North Florida. The moderate and aggressive forecasts are summarized in Figure 18 and Figure 19 on the following pages.

For the areas outside the Jacksonville area, two forecast splits were developed for both the moderate forecast and the aggressive forecast.

1.

High estimate: Assumes that today 20% of total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is also increased by 0.4% annually.

The percent of TEUs shipped via rail ranges from 8% to 18% for the conservative estimate, or 16% to 26% for the high estimate.

Two TEU forecasts for “loaded containers” were developed for the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports.

Conservative estimate: Assumes that today 10% of the total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail. This rate is increased by 0.4% annually.

Table 6. Summary of TEUs for North Florida Port Facilities (JAXPORT and Port of Fernandina) TEUs

2009

2010

2011

2012

Import TEUs

139,653

162,645

174,174

192,830

Export TEUs

376,044

436,172

444,526

425,393

Total loaded TEU's

515,697

598,817

618,700

618,223

Empty TEUs*

262,532

291,176

303,151

319,455

51%

49%

49%

52%

Empties as % of Total Loaded Average % past 4 years

50%

* Empties are not defined as imported or exported

29

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

3,000,000

2,847,947 Actual (AAPA Loaded TEUs) Vickerman ForecastTEUs (Loaded ModerateModerate Forecast (Loaded only)TEUs only)

2,500,000

Vickerman Aggressive TEUs Aggressive ForecastForecast (Loaded(Loaded TEUs only) only) 2,000,000

1,903,555

TEUs per year

2030, 1,628,602

1,500,000

2020, 927,670

2030, 1,272,981

1,000,000

2020, 848,872 500,000

2013, 618,500

-

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

Figure 17 - Moderate and Aggressive TEU Port Forecast

30

2030

2033

2036

2039

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

4,500,000

Moderate Forecast Imports

4,000,000

Exports

3,500,000

3,000,000

2040, 2,855,333

Empties

2,500,000 Total TEUs (Loaded + Empties)

2030, 1,909,471

2,000,000 2020, 1,273,308

1,500,000 2013, 927,750 1,000,000

500,000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

Figure 18 - Summary of 2040 Moderate Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs) 31

2036

2039

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

4,500,000

Aggressive Forecast

2040, 4,271,920

4,000,000 Imports 3,500,000 Exports

3,000,000

Empties

2,500,000

2030, 2,442,902

Total TEUs (Loaded + Empties)

2,000,000 1,500,000

2020, 1,391,506

1,000,000 500,000 2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

Figure 19 - Summary of 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Port Intermodal Shipments (TEUs)

32

2036

2039

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

RAIL

Aggressive forecast: Assumes that today 20% of total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail.

This rate is also increased by 0.4% annually.



RAIL INTERMODAL The mix of the forecasted TEUs that travel via rail, both to and from North Florida, as well as to and from areas outside North Florida, is based on US Department of Transportation’s Freight Analysis Framework published data. The assumptions with the moderate and aggressive forecasts vary. 

The percent of TEUs shipped via rail ranges from 8% to 18% for the conservative estimate, or 16% to 26% for the high estimate.

Table 7 summarizes the rail intermodal forecasts. Figure 20 and Figure 21 show this information graphically.

Moderate forecast: Assumes that today 10% of the total TEU imports and exports are shipped via rail.

This rate is increased by 0.4% annually

Table 7. Summary of Rail Intermodal Forecasts

2013 Rail Intermodal TEUs Incremental TEUs shipped via rail TEUs shipped outside the metro area TEUs shipped within the metro area Total TEUs

68,245 70,975 7,653

33

2040 Moderate or Conservative 212,484 450,497 65,716 728,697

Aggressive 317,902 673,952 98,318 1,090,172

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

800,000

700,000

2040, 212,484 2040, 450,467

Incremental TEU's shipped via Rail (Conservative Rate vs. High Rate)

2040, 65,716 600,000

TEUs shipped outside the Metro area Conservative Range

500,000

400,000

TEUs shipped within the Jacksonville Metro area

2025, 112,649 2025, 171,226

300,000 2013, 68,245

200,000

2025, 21,344

2013, 70,975 2013, 7,653

100,000

-

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Figure 20 - 2040 Moderate Forecast of Rail Intermodal 34

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

1,200,000

2040, 317,902

Incremental TEU's shipped via Rail (Conservative Rate vs. High Rate)

2040, 673,952

1,000,000 2040, 98,318

TEUs shipped outside the Metro area Conservative Range 800,000 TEUs shipped within the Jacksonville Metro area 600,000 2025, 133,020 400,000

2013, 68,245

2025, 202,191 2025, 25,204

2013, 70,975 200,000

-

2013, 7,653

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039

Figure 21 - 2040 Aggressive Forecast of Rail Intermodal

35

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

RAIL CARLOAD

3.

Similar to the rail intermodal growth forecast, rail carload movements are also anticipated to grow. This growth will be less than the increase of rail intermodal because of the anticipated shift between carload and intermodal and the consumption orientation of the carload shipments within these areas. This growth is anticipated in be 2.0% to 2.2% per year or a growth factor (GF) of 2.7.

4.

TRUCK INTERMODAL FORECASTS

All of the truck related volumes presented in this report are based on AADT. From September to January, a seasonal peaking of demand occurs with intermodal shipments. The peaking is due to the build-up for the holiday shopping season. The peaking factor for these volumes is 40 percent higher than the average. AADTs are shown in the NERPM-AB.

After establishing the base year truck flows, growth rates were forecast by using growth rates based on the following assumptions.

TRUCK TRIPS AND VOLUMES Using the port and rail intermodal forecasts and existing truck counts at the entrances to the major intermodal facilities, a worksheet model was prepared to estimate the truck movements between each of the major intermodal facilities within the region.

GROWTH RATES Where GDP are highly correlated to the overall growth in commodity movements, population growth also serves as a reasonable basis for estimating the growth of the internal-internal truck trips. For external truck trips that remain in Florida the forested population growth in Florida was used. Both GF were based on the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) medium growth forecasts. These growth factors are summarized in Table 8.

To build a truck trip table between each of the regional intermodal facilities, the following steps were performed.

1.

2.

External truck volumes were identified at the major external nodes within the 2040 NERPM-AB. Table 9 provides a summary of the truck trips ends.

Table 10 provides a summary in Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) truck volumes for the movement of trucks between each of the facilities.

The existing (2013) truck volumes at the entrances to the intermodal facilities were estimated based on the FDOT Traffic Online database.

Using the market and information developed through the cargo and logistics demand forecast, the ratio of truck movements between intermodal facilities was estimated.

Table 8. Growth Factors for Trucks

2011 BEBR (millions

2040 BEBR Medium (millions) 1.4 1.9 18.905 25.847

Internal GF based on population growth External GF based on population growth in Florida

36

Growth Factor (GF) 1.36 1.37

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan An anticipated shift in truck to rail intermodal traffic based on industry trends is anticipated to occur. With this shift, a growth factor of 3.08 was used to reflect the change in rail intermodal demand versus truck trip growth. This shift explaining the basis for the growth rate is discussed in greater detail in the rail intermodal forecasting section.

A comparison of the demand and theoretical capacity of the FEC, Norfolk Southern and CSX intermodal was performed based. The analysis builds on the capacity analysis conducted in the Norfolk Southern and CSX SIS Connector PD&E Study performed by FDOT. The results are summarized in Figure 22.

The practical capacity identified in Figure 22 is primarily a function of the rail siding lengths and intermodal container storage available within the facility.

In addition, two major shifts in truck movements associated with intermodal shipments were assumed: 



 

The opening of ICTF near Blount Island requires trucks to leave the port gate by truck. These containers are then shifted to the rail network for short-haul movement to the CSX Intermodal Facility or long-haul movement by rail.

The delivery of containers to the ICTF by truck is anticipated to be small with most of the regional port-related container shipments being delivered to the CSX Intermodal Facility.

Neither the FEC nor Norfolk Southern railroads are anticipated to use the ICTF. The second Dames Point intermodal terminal is anticipated to be open by the year 2040 and operating near capacity similar to the exiting intermodal terminal.

In this scenario, the CSX facility will have demand above the theoretical capacity of the current facility and their operational capacity is enhanced with additional container storage provided at the ICTF. The demand at the FEC and Norfolk Southern facilities will be nearly twice the capacity of the current facility.

CSX is considering advancing plans for the expansion of their intermodal facility. FEC’s and Norfolk Southern’s opportunities for expansion are limited due to available rights-of-way at their existing facility.

Table 11 and Table 12 summarize the anticipated intermodal-related truck movements in the year 2040.

AIR CARGO Florida Trade and Logistic Study (2011) and 2013-2043 Florida and Metro Forecast published by the University of Central Florida anticipate that air cargo within the region will increase by 45% between now and the year 2040. This forecast will largely be driven by population growth within the region. Air cargo accounts for less than 1% by volume shipped in the region, but may be as high as 4% of the total value of goods.

DEMAND VS. CAPACITY ANALYSIS INTERMODAL FACILITIES As previously discussed, the projected growth in intermodal traffic by the year 2040 indicates that demand may be 2.8 to 4.3 times the current demand as presented in the prior sections.

37

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 900 800 700

Lifts Per Year

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 FEC Intermodal

NS Intermodal Current Demand

CSX Intermodal

2040 Demand (Moderate Forecast)

Practical Capacity

Figure 22 - Demand Capacity Analysis for Intermodal Facilities

38

JAXPORT ICTF

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan Table 9. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origins and Destinations (Average Daily Trip Ends) Blount Island (includes Gate) Internal External Blount Island (includes Gate) Dames Point (TraPac) Talleyrand FEC Intermodal CSX Intermodal Norfolk Southern Intermodal CSX Auto Norfolk Southern Auto Total

865 247 37 74 13 1,236

Dames Point (TraPac) 99 347 15 30 5 496

FEC

Talleyrand

Intermodal

472 143 50 50 715

30 70 37 15 73 75 300

39

CSX

Intermodal 146 408 74 30 73 731

Norfolk Southern

Intermodal

120 88 13 5 75 301

CSX Autoramp

Norfolk Southern Auto-ramp

4 4 50 58

4 4 50 58

Total 1,740 1,311 124 50 100 200 177 93 50 50

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan Table 10. 2013 Intermodal-Related Truck Origin and Destination Volumes (AADT) Blount Island (includes Gate) Internal External Blount Island (includes Gate) Dames Point (TraPac) Talleyrand FEC CSX NS CSX Auto Norfolk Southern Auto Total

Dames Point (TraPac)

Talleyrand

1,730 494

198 694

944 286

74 148 25 2,471

30 59 10 991

100 100 1,430

FEC Inter-

CSX Inter-

60 140 74 30 -

292 815 148 59 146

modal

146 150 600

40

modal

1,460

Norfolk Southern

Intermodal

CSX Autoramp

240 175 25 10 150 -

7 8 100 -

600

115

Norfolk Southern Auto-ramp 7 8 100 115

Total 3,478 2,6202620 247 99 200 400 353 185 100 100

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

Table 11. 2040 Truck Trip (Average Daily Trip Ends)

Blount Dames Dames Island Point Point Talleyrand (includes Terminal (TraPac) Gate) 2 Internal 2,664 305 641 305 External 1,069 194 1,069 Blount Island (includes Gate) Dames Point (TraPac) Talleyrand Dames Point Terminal 2 ICTF 50 FEC Intermodal 114 46 46 CSX Intermodal 178 91 91 Norfolk Southern Intermodal 39 16 16 Total 3,045 1,527 835 1,527

41

ICTF 50 50

Norfolk CSX FEC Southern Inter- InterIntermodal modal modal 93 450 370 216 1,255 270 114 178 39 46 91 16 46 91 16 225 231 225 231 970 2,290 940

CSX Autoramp 5 6 11

Norfolk Southern Autoramp 5 6 11

Total 4,838 4,085 381 153 0 153 50 662 585 302

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan Table 12. 2040 Truck Trip AADTs

Internal External Blount Island (includes Gate) Dames Point (TraPac) Talleyrand Dames Point Terminal 2 ICTF FEC Intermodal CSX Intermodal Norfolk Southern Intermodal Total

Blount Island (includes Gate) 5,328 -

Dames Norfolk FEC CSX CSX Point Southern ICTF Inter- InterAutoTerminal Intermodal modal ramp 2 modal 610 185 899 739 10 2,138 431 2,510 539 11

Dames Point (TraPac)

Talleyrand

610 2,138

1,281 388

-

-

-

-

100 228 356 77 6,089

-

-

-

-

92 182 31 3,053

1,669

92 182 31 3,053

42

100

228

356

77

-

182

31

-

92 92

182

31

-

100

450 462 1,940

450 4,579

462 1,879

21

Norfolk Southern Autoramp 10 11 -

Total 9,672 8,166 761

305 0 305 100 - 1,324912 1,170 601 21 -

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan 

TRACK CAPACITY With the increase in demand that is anticipated to occur for freight rail and intermodal movements, the operational capacity on the existing rail infrastructure is anticipated to reach or exceed capacity within the region.

The SIS Needs Plan and the 2040 Path Forward Adopted Needs Plan, considered the track improvements provided

by FDOT through coordination with the railroads.

However, the focus of the railroad operations analysis usually does not exceed five to ten years. Currently there are as many as 20 trains per day that operate on the FEC line, 14 trains per day operate on CSX’s S-line main. Six trains per day operate on Norfolk Southern main line.

To determine the extent and scope of the future track capacity needed, a rail operations model for the region is needed. However, the development of this model is beyond the scope of the 2040 Path Forward LRTP.

With the addition of intercity passenger service proposed

by Amtrak and commuter rail by the JTA, the available operational capacity will be further impacted.

Looking to the year 2040 additional track including triple tracking CSX S-line, FEC and Norfolk Southern north of their intermodal facility may be needed to provide the operational capacity associated with the increase in freight rail and passenger rail.

Based on knowledge of the current rail system, the following locations are likely system bottlenecks where the greatest need for operational improvements may be needed. These bottlenecks are shown on Figure 23. 

Springfield Switch – this location is currently a bottleneck for the interchange of traffic between the CSX and Norfolk Southern and for trains to travel north to the JAXPORT connections along Eastport.



North Rail Corridor – This new rail connector will reduce some the congestion by allowing CSX trains destined for the ICTF to avoid the Springfield switch downtown. A phase 2 of the corridor is needed to connect to Norfolk Southern and shared operational rights to fully leverage the capacity of the new connector. A new roadway is also recommended for inclusion in this corridor between US 17 Main Street and SR 23 New Kings Road.



FEC Railroad Bridge over the St. Johns River - This bridge is a system bottleneck and will limit the capacity for trains to move through region and access the intermodal and port facilities.

Crawford Diamond - With the opening of the Winter Haven Intermodal Facility and the beginning of operations of SunRail in Central Florida, CSX is shifting more a significant portion of its freight traffic daily from the A-line, which runs along US 17 to the S-line, running along US 301. This rail traffic crosses the Crawford Diamond at Norfolk Southern. The Crawford Diamond also presents an operational challenge, considering the increased traffic and the need for CSX to clear the crossing for Norfolk Southern to traverse the crossing. In the future operational improvements (or eliminating the need for some of Norfolk Southern trains to cross the diamond) are needed.

43

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2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

TRUCK MODEL IN THE NERPM-AB

The JAXPORT file distributes trips to the ports and the intermodal facilities. Trips associated with the intermodal facilities are generated by the port but also by the statewide freight model. The model distributes the trips from these two sources based on percentages. These percentages are placed in the JAXPORT file. One input percentage is associated with each of the intermodal facilities, while the other percentage results in the model calculating how many of the port trips go to the intermodal facilities. This percentage represents the distribution of truck freight volumes (port and statewide) among the different intermodal facilities. The total number of freight trips associated with the different intermodal facilities in 2010 and 2040 were shown in and Table 9 and Table 11 respectively.

In addition to forecasting the overall goods movement and intermodal shipments which were of particular concern within the region, the truck component of the NERPM-AB was updated. These updates were based on data from the freight and intermodal demand forecasts, statewide freight model and the truck model in the NERPM-AB. In the NERPM-AB there are three types of freight data sources, (1) the statewide freight data on the interstate system, (2) the freight destined to the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports within our study area and (3) the truck trips that are related to distribution of goods and services within our study area. The third group is calculated by the model based on residential and employment input data.

These data were converted to percentages to distribute the freight truck trips tables which are then added to all the other trip tables by the model and assigned to the highway network. The format of the data that is required for the truck model is summarized in Table 13.

The statewide freight data is obtained from the statewide freight model, while the freight data associated with the ports within the NERPM-AB area was obtained by conducting a study of the commodity flows at the Jacksonville and Fernandina ports. In the NERPMAB, the data associated with the ports is located in the JAXPORT input file.

The resulting truck volumes are shown on Figure 24 and Figure 25.

Table 13. Summary of NERPM-AB Truck Model Inputs Port Facilities Blount Island Dames Point Talleyrand Dames Point 2 Fernandina Total

Total Port to Intermodal Facilities Volumes 2013 2040 247 761 99 305 200 0 305 546

1,371

45

Percent of Total Port to Intermodal Facilities Volumes 2013 2040 10% 12% 10% 10% 14% 0% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9%

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Figure 25 Page 47

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

FREIGHT NEEDS ADOPTED NEEDS PLAN An analysis of the freight needs for the region was based on a summary of the documented needs presented for each mode within the FDOT SIS Needs Plan and based on coordination with regional freight stakeholders within the region.

Table 14 provides a summary of these needs compiled from other agencies. Figure 26 shows the location projects located outside of the gates of multimodal facilities. These needs were adopted by the North Florida TPO Board in June 2014. This plan reflects the needs provided by JAXPORT, Port of Fernandina Beach, the Jacksonville Aviation Authority and the St. Johns County â&#x20AC;&#x201C; St. Augustine Airport Authority.

ADDITIONAL NEEDS In addition to these needs analysis of several key components of the multimodal freight network were performed based on an analysis of the demand and our understanding of the system capacity. The analysis is divided into terminals and line capacity considerations.

48

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan Table 14. Adopted Needs Plan Freight and Intermodal Projects

County

Map Id Agency

Location

Time Frame

Improvement Type

Clay

2200

CSX Transportation

at Wells Road

Mid-Term

Grade Separation

Clay

2201

CSX Transportation

at Kingsley Avenue (SR 224)

Mid-Term

Grade Separation

Duval

2202

CSX Transportation

at Busch Drive (SR 104)

Long-Term

Grade Separation

Duval

2204

CSX Transportation

at Beaver Street Interlocking

Mid-Term

Capacity Upgrade

Duval

2205

CSX Transportation

North Rail Connector - From West of New Kings Road (US 1) to West of Main Street (US 17) Mid-Term

Multi Modal Corridor

Duval

2206

CSX Transportation

Westlake Cecil Commerce Connector

Mid-Term

Multi Modal Corridor

Duval

2207

Florida East Coast Railway

at Bowden Intermodal

Mid-Term

Capacity Upgrade

Duval

2208

Florida East Coast Railway

at Jacksonville Bridge

Short-Term

Bridge

Duval

2259

Florida East Coast Railway

at Sunbeam Road

Short-Term

Grade Separation

Duval

2260

Florida East Coast Railway

At Shad Road

Short-Term

Grade Separation

Duval

2209

Jacksonville International Airport Construction of Runway 7R/25L

Mid-Term

Construct Runway

Duval

2210

Jacksonville International Airport Air Cargo Ramp Improvements

Short-Term

Expand Apron

Duval

2211

Jacksonville International Airport Air Cargo Surface Storage

Short-Term

Expand Apron

Duval

2212

Jacksonville International Airport Design & Construct By-Pass Taxiways

Short-Term

Construct Taxiway

Duval

2213

Jacksonville International Airport Intermodal Terminal Facility Development

Short-Term

Terminal Development

Duval

2214

Norfolk Southern

at Norfolk Southern Railway (Near Simpson Yard)

Short-Term

Grade Separation

Duval

2215

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island / Dames Point Marine Terminals Rail

Long-Term

Internal Rail

Duval

2216

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades

Long-Term

Docks

Duval

2217

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Long-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2218

Jacksonville Port Authority

Dames Point Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades

Long-Term

Docks

Duval

2219

Jacksonville Port Authority

Dames Point Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Long-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2220

Jacksonville Port Authority

New Cranes for Talleyrand and Blount Island Marine Terminals

Long-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2221

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades

Long-Term

Docks

Duval

2222

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Long-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2223

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Rail

Long-Term

Internal Rail

Duval

2224

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Mid-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2225

Jacksonville Port Authority

Dames Point Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Mid-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2226

Jacksonville Port Authority

New Cranes for Talleyrand and Blount Island Marine Terminals

Mid-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2227

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Mid-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2228

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island / Dames Point Terminals - Rail and Bridge

Short-Term

Internal Rail

Duval

2229

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades

Short-Term

Docks

49

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

County

Map Id Agency

Location

Time Frame

Improvement Type

Duval

2230

Jacksonville Port Authority

Blount Island Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Short-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2231

Jacksonville Port Authority

Dames Point Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades

Short-Term

Docks

Duval

2232

Jacksonville Port Authority

Dames Point Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Short-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2233

Jacksonville Port Authority

Harbor Deepening

Short-Term

Dredging Harbor

Duval

2234

Jacksonville Port Authority

New Cranes for Talleyrand and Blount Island Marine Terminals

Short-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2235

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Berth Upgrades

Short-Term

Docks

Duval

2236

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Facility Upgrades

Short-Term

Intermodal Transfer Improvement

Duval

2237

Jacksonville Port Authority

Talleyrand Marine Terminal Rail

Short-Term

Internal Rail

Duval

1006

Jacksonville Port Authority

Spoil Island Connector Bridge

Long-Term

New Roadway and Bridge

Duval/Baker

2238

CSX Transportation

Jacksonville to Macclenny

Mid-Term

New Passenger Service

Duval/Clay

2239

CSX Transportation

Jacksonville to Green Cove Springs

Mid-Term

New Passenger Service

Duval/Nassau

2240

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Jacksonville to Yulee

Mid-Term

New Passenger Service

Duval/St. John's 2241

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Jacksonville to St. Augustine

Mid-Term

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Nassau

2203

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at SR A1A (SR 200)

Mid-Term

Grade Separation

Nassau

2243

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at US 301 Crawford Diamond

Mid-Term

Grade Separation

Nassau

2242

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at US 301 (SR 200) / Baldwin

Mid-Term

Grade Separation

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2244

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Berth Improvements

Short-Term

Docks

Nassau

2245

Port of Fernandina

Cruise / Cargo Berth

Short-Term

Docks

Nassau

2246

Port of Fernandina

Rail Track Improvements

Short-Term

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Nassau

2247

Port of Fernandina

Short-Term

Access Improvements

Putnam

2248

City of Palatka

SR 100 CR 309D

Long-Term

Runway expansion

Putnam

2249

County

Barge Port

Mid-Term

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Putnam

2250

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at Reid Street (SR 15)

Mid-Term

Grade Separation

St. John's

2251

City of Saint Augustine

Historic Commercial Areas

Mid-Term

Mobility & Distribution Improvements

Statewide

2252

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Amtrak Service Miami to Jacksonville

Short-Term

New Passenger Service

Statewide

2253

Florida East Coast Railway

Miami to Jacksonville Upgrade Bolt and Clip System

Short-Term

Track Upgrade

Statewide

2254

Intercity Passenger Rail

New Orleans to Jacksonville

Long-Term

New Passenger Service

Statewide

2255

Intercity Passenger Rail

Jacksonville to Savannah

Mid-Term

New Passenger Service

Statewide

2256

Intercity Passenger Rail

Orlando to Jacksonville

Mid-Term

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Figure 26 Page 51 9 Miles

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

FUTURE SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT CONCEPT – A REGIONAL INTERMODAL FACILITY

Two examples of similar facilities that were developed through public-private partnerships include:

A failure to invest in meeting these future freight needs within our region could result in the railroads making investments outside of our region to meet this demand.

Moving or shifting major intermodal facilities could result in reducing our economic competitiveness as a region and JAXPORT’s competitiveness for growth since access to rail and other support infrastructure are key components to the success of any port.

Rickenbacker Inland Port - Columbus, Ohio Rickenbacker Inland Port located in Columbus Ohio is serviced by two of the largest rail providers in the United States, Norfolk Southern and CSX. The majority of rail freight traveling to Columbus is international and has reached the Ohio Valley via the East and West Coast ocean ports. The Norfolk Southern Rickenbacker Intermodal Terminal, which is capable of handling more than 400,000 containers annually, is located in the heart of the Rickenbacker Inland Port. This facility is reported to account for 15,000 jobs each year and an economic impact of $1.9 billion each year.

One potential public-private partnership that may be used to meet these needs include development of a joint-use regional intermodal facility. This concept could result in the following benefits to the region. 





 



      

Joliet Inland Port - Will County, Illinois - Located in northeastern Illinois approximately 42 miles southwest of Chicago, the BNSF and UP, two Class I railroads serving western US coastal ports have developed modern intermodal yards in Will County. Combined, these intermodals are 1,750 acres in size and anchor 3,700 acres of industrial park development with unprecedented rail access. These intermodal facilities account for 25,000 jobs and $3 billion direct and indirect economic benefits for the community each year.

Investing in projects that result in regional economic development and leverage our position as America’s Logistic Center.

Creating greater balance of jobs and employment throughout the region through strategic investments in infrastructure.

Relieving congestion and enhancing mobility through a systems approach to transportation investment and supporting future transit options such as commuter rail.

Increasing safety by reducing truck traffic within the urbanized area.

Providing direct access between one or two Class I railroads (CSX and Norfolk Southern), the FEC railroad.

Expediting service to JAXPORT and off-dock container storage that can improve the operational efficiencies and practical sustained capacity at our existing port facilities without requiring additional port construction.

Capturing the projected increase in freight transport on the east coast of the US. Increasing employment in the region.

Freeing up current freight rail corridors for passenger rail service.

Consolidating distribution warehouses and freight transportation in one geographical area.

Improving FEC access to inland US. Improving FEC, CSX and Norfolk Southern freight transfer capabilities.

Increasing JAXPORT freight handling capacities.

To advance this concept, regional partnerships with railroad, developers and public agencies will be needed.

Since the viability of this solution is not known at this time, the project is not included in the 2040 Path Forward Plan. Based on future regional cooperation and planning, this project could become viable and a program plan for the project will be developed.

52

2040 Path Forward Long Range Transportation Plan

SUMMARY

Our region is located at the confluence of three major railroads (Norfolk Southern, CSX and Florida East Coast (FEC)) and two major interstate facilities (I-10 and I-95).

North Florida includes major port facilities at Blount Island, Dames Point Talleyrand and Fernandina, an international airport, and a spaceport facility at Cecil Commerce Center. More than 200 million persons or 63% of the U.S. population is easily served by rail and 63 million persons or 20% of the population is reachable in one day by truck. We serve as the gateway to Florida’s 19.5 million residents. These unique transportation market service areas solidify our region’s position as America’s Logistic Center.

Florida’s strong economic outlook and population growth make this market one of the fastest growing in the US. These markets demand and the shippers that serve them expect highly reliable and efficient transportation services for our region to maintain our competitiveness in the global economy.

The movement of goods on our rails and roads are anticipated to grow significantly. This growth will contribute to significant increases in highway road congestion. Efficient and reliable access to the rail facilities and ports are critical for our region’s ability to compete in the global economy. To relieve this congestion and provide for more efficient movement of freight and intermodal container movements, investments in freight-related projects are needed.

The following types of major freight and intermodal project needs were identified through various planning efforts of the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (TPO), Jacksonville Port Authority (JAXPORT), Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), Ocean Highway and Port Authority (Port of Fernandina) and the Jacksonville Aviation Authority.      

Mile Point Navigation Improvements Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Rail capacity projects for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC Intermodal Yard Improvements and access for CSX, Norfolk Southern and FEC North Area/Jacksonville Rail Corridor Port access improvements at the Port of Fernandina

The total cost of the needs is $3.4 billion. In addition to these needs, future needs that were identified based on the market demand analysis include:

53



The need for additional rail intermodal facility capacity beyond the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) at Dames Point. Currently the FEC’s and Norfolk Southern’s regional intermodal facilities are operating near practical capacity. About 1 million intermodal container twenty-foot equivalency units or (TEUs) are being shipped in North Florida today. This market is anticipated to grow to 2.8 to 4.3 million TEUs by the year 2040.

Additional intermodal facility capacity is needed to meet this demand. One potential solution to meet this need is the development of a public-private partnership for a joint-use intermodal facility.



Additional track improvement projects beyond the adopted needs plan may be needed. The planned operation of commuter rail, and potentially intercity passenger rail service by Amtrak or a private operator, will place increased demand on the rail track operational capacity within the region. Several system bottlenecks are likely to restrict the ability to meet the rail service demand. These include the Springfield Switch, FEC Rail Crossing of the St. Johns River and the Crawford Diamond crossing of CSX and Norfolk Southern. Additional rail operational modeling is needed for the region to identify other bottlenecks and recommend specific solutions to address these needs.

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