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Richard K. Thomas

Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications in Applied Demography An Introductory Textbook

Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications in Applied Demography

Richard K. Thomas

Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications in Applied Demography An Introductory Textbook

123

Richard K. Thomas Memphis, TN USA

ISBN 978-3-319-65438-6 ISBN 978-3-319-65439-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65439-3

(eBook)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017958560 © Springer International Publishing AG 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.

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The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Contents

1

Introduction to Applied Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.2 Applied Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.3 Why Study Demography? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.4 Who Uses Demography? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.5 Demographic Perspectives and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.6 Major Topics in Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.6.1 Population Size and Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.6.2 Demographic Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.6.3 Population Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.7 Settings for Applied Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.8 Objectives of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1.9 Organization of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 1 2 4 7 8 11 11 12 12 13 16 16 17

2

The Methods and Materials of Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1 The Demographic Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.1 The Demographics of Birth and Death . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.1.2 Demographics and Social Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2 Demographic Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.1 Demographic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.2 Estimation and Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.3 Standardization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.4 Cohort Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.5 Spatial Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.2.6 Epidemiologic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19 19 21 22 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 30

v

vi

Contents

3

Data Sources for Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2 Demographic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.1 Data Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.2 Using Demographic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.3 Data Timelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.3 The Importance of Geography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.4 Data Collection Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.5 Census . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.6 Economic Census . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.7 Registration Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.7.1 Vital Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.7.2 Immigration Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.8 Surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.9 Synthetic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.10 Sources of Data for Demographers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.10.1 Government Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.10.2 Professional Associations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.10.3 Private Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.10.4 Commercial Data Vendors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.11 Future Prospects for Demographic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31 31 32 32 33 34 35 35 35 40 41 42 43 43 46 47 48 48 48 49 49 51

4

Population Size, Distribution and Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2 Defining and Measuring Size, Distribution and Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2.1 Population Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2.2 Population Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2.3 Population Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3 Community Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

53 53

Population Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.2 Compositional Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.2.1 Biosocial Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.2.2 Sociocultural Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.3 Displaying and Analyzing Compositional Variables . . . . . . . .

5.3.1 Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.3.2 Population Pyramids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.3.3 Dependency Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.3.4 Cohort Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.4 Data Standardization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

77 77 77 78 82 91 91 92 94 95 96

5

54 54 56 65 68

Contents

vii

6

Demographic Processes: Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.2 Concepts and Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.3 Trends in Fertility in the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.4 Factors Affecting Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6.5 Data Sources for Fertility Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

101 101 102 106 114 118 121

7

Demographic Processes: Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.2 Concepts and Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.2.1 Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.2.2 Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.2.3 Life Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.3 Demographic Correlates of Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.4 Mortality Trends in the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.5 Sources of Mortality Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

123 123 124 124 125 131 133 137 144 149

8

Demographic Processes: Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.2 Migration Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.3 Migration Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.4 Migration Patterns in the U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.4.1 International Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.4.2 Internal Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.5 Sources of Migration Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

151 151 152 155 157 157 163 168 171

9

Population Change and Its Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.2 Estimation Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.3 Projection Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.4 Generating Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.5 The Impact of Population Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9.6 Data Sources for Population Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

173 173 176 179 183 187 189 192

10 Business Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.2 Spheres of Activity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.2.1 Consumer Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.2.2 Product Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.2.3 Product Sales/Marketing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.2.4 Site Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10.3 Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

195 195 202 203 205 206 209 212 218

viii

Contents

11 Health Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.2 Applications of Demography to the Study of Health and Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.3 Demographic Processes and Health Demography . . . . . . . . . .

11.3.1 Fertility Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.3.2 Mortality Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.3.3 Morbidity Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.4 Measuring Morbidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.5 Standardizing Health Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.6 Demographics and Health Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.6.1 Biosocial Characteristics and Health . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11.6.2 Sociocultural Characteristics and Health . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

219 219

12 Political Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.2 The Demographics and Politics Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.3 Demographic Correlates of Political Behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.4 Demographic Trends and Political Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.5 Sources of Data for Political Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.6 Demography and Public Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7 Examples of Policy Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.1 Immigration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.2 Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.3 Healthcare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.4 Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.5 Criminal Justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.6 Housing and Community Development . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.7 Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.7.8 Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.8 Direct and Indirect Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.9 Factors Influencing Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.9.1 Demographic Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12.10 Intended and Unintended Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

255 255 257 263 270 273 275 278 278 278 279 279 280 281 281 282 282 283 283 286 289

13 Other Applications of Demographic Concepts, Techniques and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13.1 Educational Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13.2 Educational Demography and Educational Policy . . . . . . . . . .

13.3 Criminal Justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

13.4 Contemporary Issues of Relevance to Demography . . . . . . . . .

13.5 Urban Planning and Community Development . . . . . . . . . . . .

291 291 295 299 299 302

220 224 224 225 226 228 232 234 237 245 252

Contents

ix

13.6

Focus Areas for Demographers Involved in Planning and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 304 13.7 Emergency Preparedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 316

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329

Chapter 1

Introduction to Applied Demography

Abstract This Chapter presents an overview of the field of demography and the place of applied demography within the broader context. It traces the development of applied demography as a sub-discipline and reviews the factors that have created growing interest in and demand for the application of demographic concepts, techniques and data inside and outside of academia.

1.1

Introduction

“Demography” comes from the Greek and means “describing people”—“demo” for people and “graphy” to write about a particular topic. Also referred to as population studies demography seeks to analyze human populations and profile them in terms of their salient characteristics and the dynamic processes that influence these characteristics.

Demography as a distinct field of study has a relatively short history. The term “demography” was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard (2010) when he published Elements de Statistique Humaine ou Demographie Comparee. He combined the Greek words demos and graphein to create the discipline’s name. To Guillard, the focus of demography was the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general movements, and their physical, civil, intellectual and moral state. His interest in population size and distribution, demographic processes and population structure of a population foretold modern demography.

“Demography” comes from the Greek words for people (demos) and writing about (graphe) and refers to the science of describing populations.

While it is appropriate to say that demographers are interested in the characteristics of populations, they are not interested in every characteristic. There is a certain set of attributes that are the focus of demographic analysis. Demographers are interested in characteristics that are relevant within a social and cultural context. © Springer International Publishing AG 2018 R. K. Thomas, Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications in Applied Demography, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65439-3_1

1

2

1 Introduction to Applied Demography

Thus, demographers study biosocial traits such as age, sex and race and sociocultural traits such as marital status, education, income, occupation and even religion. While age, sex and race may be thought of as physical attributes, each involves a significant social dimension and are thus classified as “biosocial”.

Demographers do not focus on the attributes of individuals but on the characteristics of groups of people. While every individual might be considered to possess a “demographic profile”, the interest of demographers is on the attributes of aggregates—a community, a state or a nation. There are situations in which a subset of a population may be the object of study, such as cohorts of child-bearing age women, senior citizens, or African-Americans, but it is still the aggregate characteristics of the group that are of significance. There will be significant variation within any group in terms of its attributes. Members of any population may exhibit a range of values for any attribute (e.g., income) so it is the “average” characteristics of the population that are of interest to the demographer.

Demography is by definition an applied discipline. While this text makes occasional references to demographic theory, most of the material is devoted to the study of the concepts, methods and data used in the application of demography to real-world problems. A frequent question asked of demographers when they present the facts is: This is interesting but what can you do with it? Like all disciplines, there is a basic science dimension to demography, what we might call science for science’s sake. But, ultimately, most demographers use their knowledge to understand real world problems and, not just to understand them, but to help develop solutions for them. Demographers analyzing the changing age structure of the U.S. population, for example, have contributed important knowledge for addressing the challenges of funding the federal Social Security and Medicare programs. Demographers examining fertility trends have contributed to solutions for addressing such phenomena as high rates of births to unmarried women and teenagers.

In addition to proposing practical solutions to real-world problems, demographic data make an important contribution to policy setting. As in the case of Social Security and Medicare cited above, an understanding of demographic trends provides policy-makers with the background they need for establishing effective policies. There is essentially no sector of U.S. society that cannot benefit at the policy level from demographic input. Thus, education, economic development, transportation, disaster preparedness, and criminal justice, to name a few, are areas where demographic data can make a significant contribution to policy setting and program implementation.

1.2

Applied Demography

“Applied demography” involves the application of demographic theories, concepts, methods and data to the solution of practical “real world” problems. As noted by Murdock and Ellis (1991), applied demography focuses on pragmatic concerns of

1.2 Applied Demography

3

interests to professionals whose training and experience lie largely outside the small community of professional demographers. This often means the application of demographic methods and materials to non-demographic factors and events.

“Applied demography” involves the application of demographic theories, concepts, methods and data to the solution of practical “real world” problems.

Even earlier, Rives and Serow (1984) suggested some traits that might distinguish applied demography from not only general demography but other fields. They noted that the scientific goal of applied demography focuses on prediction as opposed to description and explanation, an emphasis on current and future events rather than the past, local versus national and international demographic phenomena, an emphasis on the implications of demographic events, and the use of demography for decision making in areas outside of demography.

Given there is not complete agreement as to what constitutes applied demography, perhaps the best approach would be to identify what applied demographers actually do. A simplified depiction of the way in which demography is applied is presented in Exhibit 1.1.

Exhibit 1.1: How Demography is Applied Data

Information

Policy

Action

Every scientific endeavor begins with data—i.e., the raw numbers that describe a population or phenomenon of some type. This would include, for example, the ages of every person in a defined population, the number of births each woman had in the population last year, or the citizenship status of all foreign-born residents. These raw data would essentially involve a list of numbers that do not mean much by themselves. These raw data must be converted into information that provides a description of the population in question. Thus, if we can calculate the median age for the population, the annual birth rate, or the proportion of foreign-born in the U.S. population, we now have some information that we can use. In this simplified example, having access to information allows demographers to contribute to policy making. If, for example, the median age is 40 the types of policies to be considered would be a lot different than if the median age were 18. Similarly, it makes a difference to policy makers if the fertility rate is 80 births per 1000 women of child-bearing age as opposed to 40. Finally, the proportion of foreign-born within a population—and their citizenship status—has all kinds of policy implications.

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The term “policy” is used loosely here to refer any deliberations on the meaning of the statistics and any implications these statistics may have for the social, political or economic realms. An aging population, for example, raises questions about the ability of a population to replace itself and, indeed, the U.S. population is facing that dilemma today. A declining fertility rate also has implications for the same issue, in that the increasing median age of the population reflects among other things the fact that women are having fewer children. Finally, the proportion of the population that is foreign-born has implications for immigration policy, educational resources, and the job market. The significance of the foreign-born population even has implications for the population replacement situation in that recent immigrants typically exhibit higher fertility rates than the native-born.

The ultimate “application” comes at the action phase and, for these examples, actions may include developing health services for seniors (as opposed to children), introducing incentives for more births (or less, depending), and introducing English-as-a-second-language programs in public schools (or not). The impact of these actions informed by demographic analyses can be tracked over time to determine their implications for the populations in question and for the society as a whole.

1.3

Why Study Demography?

The study of demography is important for a number of reasons. For starters, nearly everything is connected to demography (Weeks, 2008). Demography describes our world—and description is the starting point for understanding the world and, ultimately, taking action to improve it. “Our world” could be any collection of people we choose to analyze—a social group, classroom, neighborhood, city, or the total world population for that matter.

The relevance of demography for an understanding of the world is reflected in the major issues making headlines in recent years: • • • • •

Increasing income inequality as the size of the middle class dwindles Conflict between different ethnic and religious factions in the Middle East The effects of climate change on various parts of the world The continuing issue of illegal immigration into the United States The unexpected election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.

These issues all have national and/or international implications—and all are directly or indirectly related to demography. In fact, there is virtually no social, economic or political issue that does not have its roots in the demographics of the population.

While the events above have captured the headlines, there are a number of other trends occurring within the U.S. population that are currently making headlines or reflect long-term changes in the social structure:

1.3 Why Study Demography?

5

• • • •

The decline in the U.S. population below replacement levels The aging of the U.S. population (accompanied by growing “feminization”) The increasing racial/ethnic diversity of the U.S. population The changing family structure of the U.S. population (now including same-sex marriages) • The outsourcing of U.S. jobs to overseas workers • Increasing death rates among some segments of the U.S. population.

These types of demographic trends have significant implications for U.S. society present and future. There is no social institution that is not impacted by these developments. The aging of the U.S. population by itself has ushered in an unprecedented period for a society that has always emphasized its youthfulness.

The dramatic increase in the Hispanic population in the U.S. has wide-ranging implications for the economy, education, healthcare and the political system.

In view of developments like those above applied demography seeks to interpret the political and economic events whether at the local, national or international level. News headlines and the stories that accompany them are often complicated and difficult to decipher. However, many if not most news stories today have some type of demographic cause or consequence. We gain insights when we realize that headlines like: “Growing elderly population puts pressure on Medicare,” “Aging baby-boomers threaten solvency of Social Security,” or “Drop in birthrate could lead to population decline” reflect the operation of demographic processes. We can better understand both the obvious and not-so-obvious dimensions of the issue if we can apply demographic knowledge and techniques.

Applied demography provides a means of interpreting social, political and economic events at the local, national and international levels.

A case in point that has implications for each of these headlines is the oft-quoted misstatement that: Americans are living longer today. That statement is incorrect in that the length of time that a human being can live has not changed much throughout history. A more correct statement would be: More Americans are living long lives. While both of these developments would have an impact on programs for the elderly, the ultimate consequences of the respective developments would be different. The impact on society of aging is a function of many people living a long time rather than some people living a very long time.

While a good case can be made for the usefulness of applied demography as a means of interpreting and understanding social phenomena, the ultimate goal of any applied science is to effect change. Knowledge gained through the application of demographic concepts, techniques and data has some value in its own right, but the real payoff comes when this knowledge is used to solve a social problem and bring about positive change. In the cases of Medicare and Social Security cited above, demographic knowledge can offer insights into the issues at hand. For example,

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does the growing Medicare population mean that this government program will eventually go bankrupt as the trend line might suggest? Knowledge drawn from health demography helps to shed some light on this as we realize that the major surge in Medicare enrollees for the foreseeable future will be baby-boomers. This generation is healthier than any previous generation of seniors, has more resources to maintain their health status longer, and can generally expect to remain healthy up into their 70 and 80s. While this doesn’t mean that the surge in elderly Americans will not eventually affect Medicare’s viability, the situation viewed in this light does not support a “doomsday” scenario.

By analyzing trends in the demographic behavior of society members, demographers can predict the future characteristics of the population.

While a number of major trends related to demographics are affecting the society as a whole, there is a personal dimension to this as well. As Weeks (2008) points out, the demographic foundation of our lives is deep and broad. Although demographers are interested in the characteristics and behavior of groups of people, the demographic attributes of our society affect nearly every aspect of our personal lives in one way or another. In fact, the types of personal decisions that we as individuals make have a cumulative effect on population trends. Some of the decisions that affect our daily lives are: • • • • • • •

The decision to get married (or not) and when The decision to have children (or not) and when The neighborhood in which we choose to live The type of occupation we pursue The educational level we aspire to The choice of political party to support The health-related behaviors in which we participate.

The cumulative effect of decisions such as these made by millions of Americans is a changing demographic profile. In fact, some demographers make a living projecting the future characteristics of populations based on what is known about that population’s current demographic behavior. It would not be unusual, for example, for analysts to use demographic methods to predict how long members of a certain demographic group are going to live and, in fact, determine prospectively what diseases they are likely to die from, or for demographers to predict election results based on the demographic characteristics of likely voters. The bottom line is: Knowing the demographic characteristics of a population opens the door to an understanding of a wide variety of attributes of that population.

1.4 Who Uses Demography?

1.4

7

Who Uses Demography?

People in every aspect of society employ demographic data, often without being aware of it. Increasingly we hear people speak up the “demographics” of that consumer group or the fact that a certain “demographic” always votes for a certain political party. Even though public expressions about demographics are becoming more common, the widespread use of demographic data and methods is not widely appreciated.

Members of the business community, particularly those involved in marketing, pioneered the use of demographic data in the private sector. The application of demographics to business has become so widespread that virtually no business decision is made in the corporate boardroom today without considering the relevant demographics. Whether the decision involves identifying a target audience for a new product, determining the location for a new store, or designing a sales territory, the demographics of the population under question are a critical piece of the puzzle.

This process does not just relate to major corporate decisions but affects us as individuals. The fact that we receive certain catalogues, certain types of junk mail, or certain telephone solicitations reflects the information that marketers have about our demographic attributes.

While the business community was the first to recognize the importance of demographics, this sector is far from the only user of such data. In every aspect of American life demographics have become increasingly important. The allocation of government services depends on an in-depth understanding of the characteristics of the population to be served. Indeed, the original intent of the census conducted by the federal government every ten years was for the apportionment of Congressional districts. Those who aspire to political office begin their campaigns with an assessment of the demographics of their prospective constituents. Those involved in urban planning and community development start with the demographics of the geographic area under consideration. The education system depends on an understanding of the number, location and characteristics of school-aged children, and the services provided by the healthcare system are a direct reflection of the characteristics of the patient population. The military must plan to accommodate the characteristics of potential inductees, and, clearly, today’s American armed forces reflect the changing demographic character of our society with the inclusion of record numbers of women and members of various racial and ethnic groups.

While the business community was the first to apply demographics in the private sector, applications of demography to real-world problems are found in every sphere of society—government, education, criminal justice, healthcare, community development and numerous others.

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In most of these examples, demographics are put to good use—good for the users and good for society. But there are cases where less well-intended individuals and organizations may use demographics for less than noble purposes. Much has been made of racial and ethnic profiling used by law enforcement agencies and championed by those who oppose immigration into this country. Certain groups may be discriminated against due to their demographic characteristics—their race or ethnicity, their poverty level, religion or language. Historically, individuals have been excluded from housing developments, social clubs and occupations due to their sex, race or cultural background. As with any aspect of the human condition, demographics can be used for good or ill.

When we examine who applies demography to real-world problems we find, not surprisingly, that many demographers themselves are included among this number.

Applied demographers work in virtually every industry, from education to manufacturing to healthcare and at agencies in all levels of government. However, it is noteworthy that most of the people applying demography to concrete problems are not demographers. Long before applied demography was recognized as a separate discipline, people in government, business and other fields were regularly using demographics as part of their jobs. It is perhaps a testament to the value of applied demography to find people who are not demographers in virtually every industry employing demographics in their efforts to perform their jobs.

The significance of demography to U.S. industry can be seen in the extent to which those involved in the application of demography have been elevated to roles of importance within the corporate structure. While demographic analysis was at one time relegated to the back room as a low-level technical activity, in today’s economy we find those in charge of demographic analysis—albeit usually not demographers per se—seated at the table in the corporate boardroom. It is safe to say that very few business decisions in any industry are made today without considering the demographics underlying the issues and/or the demographic implications of that decision.

1.5

Demographic Perspectives and Methods

An understanding of the “demographic perspective”, the concepts that define the discipline, the methods used for demographic analysis, and the data utilized in these analyses is essential. The demographic perspective involves a way of seeing the world within a demographic context or through a “demographic lens”. This unique manner of viewing the world provides a framework for interpreting social phenomena and a means of linking social groups to their environments. This perspective leads to a search for interrelationships between demographic variables and other variables associated with a population.

Although we often act of our own volition to make decisions that not only affect our lives but the demographic trends that affect our society, we must remember that the relationship between demographic behavior and societal traits is a “two-way

1.5 Demographic Perspectives and Methods

9

street”. All of us were essentially born into a game that was already under way making each of us in a sense a “victim” of demographic trends. The rules were written long before we were born, so the type of education we aspire to (and our ability to achieve it), the type of job that we are able to obtain, the type of person we are likely to marry, and even the political party we are likely to support, are all reflections of the position within the social structure to which we were born. Indeed, it has now been pointed out by health demographers that the best predictor of our health is the ZIP Code in which we were born. While members of society are able to control their demographic futures to a certain extent, we are all constrained by the demographic parameters surrounding our position in society.

Applying demographics to the analysis of societal phenomena allows demographers to see society from a unique perspective, using a “demographic lens” to view the attributes that characterize any population.

At the same time, however, we are the “creators” of our demographic circumstances through our behavior and the decisions that we make contribute to demographic trends. Over the course of the past few decades the behaviors that we have exhibited as a population have had significant implications for the demographic attributes of American society. We have fewer (and later in life) marriages, we are having none or fewer (and later in life) babies, we continue to die from health conditions that are preventable, and we continue to migrate out of the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West. Thus, our behaviors affect the demographic attributes of our society.

Ultimately, through our individual behaviors we make our demographic bed and then have to lie in it. The society we have created through our behaviors then has implications for our lives. Some of the situations that we as Americans have created through our behavior include the following: • • • • • •

Our birth rate has dropped below replacement levels We are getting steadily older as a society We have fewer “traditional” families We have a predominantly female population Poverty is being shifted from the inner-cities to the suburbs We are becoming less healthy as a population in many ways.

As we consider these trends, one of the things that becomes obvious is that societies are constantly undergoing change—some slower, some faster—but change is always occurring. Often change is a result of a traumatic event—a natural disaster, disease or war. In the U.S. we have experienced continuous change in our short history. Change has been such an important aspect of our lives that we actually consider change as an important attribute of our culture. We change jobs, houses, spouses and lifestyles with startling frequency. Change is readily accepted and generally encouraged to the point that it has become part of our cultural DNA.

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The changes that have occurred in recent years have led to the setting of a number of demographic records (as illustrated by Exhibit 1.2).

Exhibit 1.2: Setting (Demographic) Records The changes have occurred in U.S. society in recent years are so significant that we are constantly setting new records. Today, for example, the American population contains: • The largest elderly population we have ever had (both numbers and percent) • The greatest “excess” of women we have ever had • The lowest marriage rate we have ever had • The largest group of single adults we have ever had (both numbers and percent) • The most births outside of marriage we have ever had • The largest number of single-parent households we have ever had • The most women working outside the home we have ever had • The highest level of immigration (both legal and illegal) we have ever had.

As a result, our American “portrait” in the early 21st century looks much different than it did only a couple of decades ago.

Another way in which demography can be thought of as a “two-way street” is through the interaction of population attributes and demographic processes. The composition of a population has implications for the various demographic processes that occur while, at the same time, the current processes have consequences for the population’s attributes. If we examine, for example, the racial and ethnic makeup of the U.S. population, we see that non-Hispanic whites are the numerically dominant racial/ethnic group in society—followed at a great distance by Hispanics and African-Americans. Currently, the U.S. population is exhibiting significant differences in fertility rates as a result of its population composition. The birth rate for the non-Hispanic white population is lower than average while the rate for African-Americans, Hispanics and certain other racial and ethnic groups is higher than average. These behaviors attributed to demographically different segments of the population are having a significant impact on fertility patterns. When these trends are extrapolated into the future we see that the operation of these processes will have major implications for the future composition of the U.S. population.

Thus, by 2050 it is predicted that these high-fertility minority groups will constitute the majority of the population and non-Hispanic whites will constitute a numerical minority. Numerous other examples of the interdependence of demographic traits and demographic processes will be cited throughout this text.

One conclusion generated by looking at the population through “a demographic lens” is that virtually no demographic or social attribute is randomly distributed throughout society. When we look at developments seemingly unrelated to

1.5 Demographic Perspectives and Methods

11

demographic factors, we inevitably find a demographic undercurrent if not a direct causal effect. Examples ripped from the headlines related to such diverse issues as climate change, the international spread of AIDS, an increase in suicide among older Americans, the outsourcing of American jobs overseas, and bankrupt American cities all have an underlying demographic component. With the judicious application of demographic concepts, techniques and data, we can develop the demographic perspective required to clearly see the operation of these phenomena.

1.6

Major Topics in Demography

The sections that follow provide a foretaste of the topics that interest applied demographers. Each of these topics will be addressed in detail in subsequent chapters.

1.6.1

Population Size and Distribution

The first facts that a demographer looks for in a population are the number of people and their distribution. The size of the population is a key demographic variable and provides the framework for additional analysis. Equally important, however, is the distribution of that population across the geographic span of the area in question. In the U.S., for example, how are our 310 million residents distributed over the various states and among the various cities? To what extend is our population widely dispersed (e.g., in New Mexico) or tightly concentrated (e.g., in New York City)? These questions can be raised for any geographic or political unit, and patterns of population distribution have significant implications for the demographic profile of the area in question.

At the same time, the population’s demographic makeup will contribute to the manner in which the population is distributed. Thus, in the U.S. we find American Indians (a racial group) primarily isolated on “reservations” in the western states, African-Americans often segregated within our urban areas, and senior citizens concentrated in popular retirement locales such as Florida and Arizona.

Demographers are not only interested in the current size and distribution of the population but in future conditions as well. For most practical purposes, it is important to develop an appreciation for the size and distribution of the population ten, twenty or even more years into the future. To this end, demographers have developed a variety of techniques for generating projections and forecasts of the size and distribution of the future populations.

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1.6.2

1 Introduction to Applied Demography

Demographic Processes

Historically, demographers have emphasized the study of the major demographic processes—fertility, mortality and migration—and a significant portion of this book is devoted to these topics. Fertility, which refers to the process of reproduction and childbirth, is the primary way in which new members are added to a group. Thus, the number of births and the characteristics of those births are of particular interest to demographers. Mortality refers to the study of death and the characteristics surrounding the deaths within a particular society. This is the primary means through which people are subtracted from a group. The mortality characteristics of a particular society tell us a lot about that society. Migration—the process through which individuals, families and groups move from one place to another—is the third process to be considered. Migration can involve internal movement (e.g., within the U.S.) or international movement (i.e., from country to country). Obviously, migration can both add and subtract people from a society and, in today’s world, migration often has more implications for society than fertility or mortality patterns.

One emerging process that will be considered to a lesser extent relates to the morbidity of a population. Morbidity refers to the health problems that characterize a population, and this topic is of increasing interest to students of demography. The fact that disease patterns are almost invariably linked to demographic attributes underscores the usefulness of demographic analysis in the study of epidemiology.

The morbidity characteristics of a population have important linkages directly to mortality and indirectly to fertility; the demographically linked health disparities that exist have important social, economic and political implications.

The three key processes taken together are important in that they represent the components of population change. The size of a population is changed through a combination of births and in-migration adding members and deaths and out-migration subtracting members. As will be demonstrated later, the population in Time 2 is a result of the population in Time 1 plus births minus deaths plus/minus migration. Understandably, demographers pay a lot of attention on these processes due to their impact on the size and characteristics of any particular population.

Because demography is a dynamic science, an understanding of demographic trends is important. Changes in birth rates, death rates and patterns of migration are of major importance to demographers. They represent the moving parts of any population and not only provide a snapshot of where we are now but of where we as a people are going. These trends in turn offer an indication of the changes in the attributes of the population that can be expected to result.

1.6.3

Population Composition

Another major topic to be covered in this text is the demographic characteristics associated with human populations. These are the attributes that give a population

1.6 Major Topics in Demography

13

its “character”. For our purposes demographic characteristics are divided into biosocial traits and sociocultural traits in order to profile a population in terms of its key demographic characteristics.

Biosocial characteristics are so called because they are attributes that are rooted in biology but also have a social dimension. These attributes include age, sex, race and ethnicity. While age and sex represent biological states, social attributes are ascribed to persons of different ages, and a social dimension (i.e., masculinity and femininity) is associated with the respective sexes. Race is not a scientific category but exists as a social construct, thus displaying both biological and social dimensions. Ethnicity refers to one’s cultural heritage and does not represent a clearly biological state per se. However, to the extent that ethnic groups tend to interbreed and maintain a distinct gene pool, ethnicity is included in the biosocial category.

Note that biosocial characteristics are ascribed at birth and are not amenable to change.

Sociocultural characteristics refer to traits exhibited by individuals that refer to their position or status in society. While biosocial traits are essentially ascribed at birth, sociocultural traits are typically acquired through the actions of the individual.

Sociocultural traits are important not only because they indicate one’s place in society, but because of their contribution to the morbidity patterns of the population. These traits include attributes such as marital status, income, occupation, education and even religion.

1.7

Settings for Applied Demographics

One way of defining applied demography is in terms of the areas to which demography is applied. The following paragraphs summarize areas where demographic concepts, techniques and data are commonly applied.

Business. Business executives, product developers, marketers and others use demographics to support consumer research, new product development, marketing and advertising, store placement and a variety of other purposes. A company desiring to market a new product would use demographics to determine the size of the market, the characteristics of potential customers, the location of potential customers, and the best way to reach the target audience.

Education. Education planners use demographics to plan for school construction, determine staffing requirements, plan school bus routes, and budget for the provision of educational services. School administrators contemplating the construction of an additional school would use demographics to determine how many current and future school-aged children there are, where they are located, and what their characteristics are (e.g., age, ethnicity). They would also use demographics to examine future birth rates and immigration patterns that might affect the demand for schools.

Politics. Politicians, political consultants and policy makers use demographics to draw up political districts, analyze voting patterns, plan political campaigns and

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develop advocacy strategies, among other activities. A politician embarking on a political campaign would use demographics to profile the electorate in terms of its demographic attributes and voting patterns, determine the subset of potential voters to target, and develop a promotional strategy targeting potential voters.

Demographic considerations underlie many of the programs formulated by policy makers.

Labor force development. Policy makers, government officials and education planners use demographics to calculate unemployment rates, monitor the growth/ decline of various industries, predict the future demand for specific occupations, and project the future worker pool. A job training program would use demographics to profile the local workforce, determine employment/unemployment levels, identify the types of jobs needed in the local economy, and recommend job training initiatives that would equip the workforce to fill the available jobs.

Transportation planning. Transportation planners use demographics to predict the demand for roads/highways, plan for public transportation, perform cost-benefit analyses for new roads, and assess the impact of a transportation project on the community. A transportation planner conducting a study of existing public transportation to determine needed modifications would use demographics to profile the population currently using public transportation, identify additional potential users, determine current and future destinations for riders, and recommend changes in routes and schedules.

Community development. Community planners use demographics to predict the future demand for various types of housing, develop land use plans, plan public housing projects, project the level of homelessness, and determine the supply of affordable housing. A community development corporation might use demographics to assess the level of home ownership in the community, track housing sales, monitor foreclosure trends, and assess the mobility of community residents with the objective of encouraging housing stability within the community.

Social services. Social service agencies use demographics to identify vulnerable populations and profile demographically defined groups in need of social services, locate social service offices, develop welfare policies, and evaluate the effectiveness of social service programs. A government agency might use demographics to develop welfare policies, identifying the in-need population, determining this population’s characteristics, examining the factors contributing to neediness, and structuring assistance programs to address these needs.

Healthcare. Health planners and administrators use demographics to identify medical service areas, determine the demand for health services, select locations for health facilities, measure disparities in health status and health services utilization, and develop marketing plans to promote health services and products. A health planner would use demographics to determine the size and characteristics of the population in a health service area, the types of health problems likely to affect this population, and the types of personnel, services and facilities required.

Criminal justice. Law enforcement officials use demographics to identify the characteristics of criminals and victims, identify high-crime areas, plan for correctional facilities, determine deployment patterns for police, and development

1.7 Settings for Applied Demographics

15

community crime prevention programs. Law enforcement officials may use demographics to determine their priorities for enforcement, identify the types of crime that are most serious and/or prevalent, determine the spatial distribution of these crimes, calculate the cost-benefit of focusing on certain crimes rather than others, and predict the consequences of various law enforcement initiatives.

Exhibit 1.3: Demography and Public Policy As noted in the graphic earlier in the chapter, applied demographics plays an important role in the formulation of public policy. Demographics and demographers regularly make major contributions to public policy often in ways that are not particularly obvious. “Public policies” are authoritative decisions made by legislative, executive or judicial branches of government intended to direct or influence the actions, behaviors or decisions of others.

While the federal system that governs the United States does not lend itself to overarching public policies, there are examples of the influence of demographics codified in federal legislation such as No Child Left Behind, the Voting Rights Act, laws governing immigration, and, recently, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The opportunities for applying demographics to public policy issues are endless since there are virtually no activities related to public policy that do not have a demographic dimension. One has only to examine the issues that have made the headlines for the past few years to realize the areas in which applied demography might be employed. At the national level major issues have involved the solvency of Social Security and Medicare, the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, the rise in illegal immigration, increasing income inequality, declining fertility rates, and numerous other issues. At the international level there are issues surrounding the continued high fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa, ethnic strife in Iraq and other countries, pollution in China, and the outsourcing of U.S. jobs overseas. In these cases and others there are opportunities for the application of demography’s theories, concepts, methods and data to not only facilitate an understanding of the underlying issues but to contribute to informed policy setting.

Examples of current public policy questions that demographics can address include: • What changes should be made in the Social Security program given the lack of young workers?

• What are the future implications of high levels of immigration by illegal aliens on society’s institutions?

• What impact will the aging of baby boomers have on the demand for government-funded health services?

• What does the declining fertility rate in America portend for future population growth?

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• What type of policies would contribute to faster recovery from the recent recession?

• What are the implications for society of a growing excess of women?

These issues only represent a sampling of the various ways in which demographics can contribute to public policy analysis and decision making, nor do they address the myriad opportunities for demographic input into policy setting at the state and local levels. Many of these issues will be revisited later in this book as various sectors of society are addressed in more detail.

1.8

Objectives of the Book

This text has been developed as an introduction to the field of applied demography for use by both undergraduate and graduate students. It should also be useful as a manual for professionals in a variety of fields. Its primary objectives are as follows: (1) To present a survey of the field of demography and the concepts and methods utilized by demographers (and thereby provide a foundation for the exploration of the application of demographics in various contexts) (2) To develop an appreciation of the various types of data utilized by demographers, along with methods for finding and interpreting population statistics (3) To develop an appreciation of demographic analysis as a tool for addressing concrete problems related to the economy, the environment and public policy (4) To provide examples of the application of demographic materials to other fields and one’s personal life (5) To provide insights into the relationship between demographics and social, economic and political issues (6) To provide hands-on experience applying demographic methods to real-world problems.

1.9

Organization of the Book

This first chapter has presented an overview and introduction to the field of applied demography. Chapter 2 on the methods and materials of demography describes definitions, concepts and methodologies utilized by demographers in addressing applied problems. Chapter 3 extends this discussion to address the types of data (and their sources) utilized by applied demographers. With this background, the text addresses key areas of interest to demographers, including population size,

1.9 Organization of the Book

17

distribution and concentration (Chap. 4), population composition (Chap. 5), and demographic processes (Chaps. 6–8). Chapter 9 introduces the reader to population estimates, projections and forecasts, key techniques used in applying demographic methods to real-world problems. The following four chapters deal with the application of demographic methods to problems in selected “vertical industries”, including business (Chap. 10), healthcare (Chap. 11), and politics (Chap. 12).

Chapter 13 summarizes additional areas to which demographic concepts, techniques and data can be applied to real world problems. Chapters 3–13 include case studies and exercises providing hands-on examples of the application of demography to concrete problems.

References Guillard, A. (2010). Elements de Statistique Humaine ou Demographie Comparee. Charleston, SC: Nabu Press.

Murdock, S., & Ellis, D. (1991). Applied demography. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Rives, N., & Serow, W. (1984). Introduction to applied demography: Data sources and estimation techniques. Beverly Hill: Sage Publications.

Weeks, J. R. (2008). Population: An introduction to concepts and issues. Redmont, CA: Thompson Wadsworth.

Additional Resources Lundquist, J. H., Anderton, D. L., & Yaukey, D. (2014). Demography: The study of human populations (4th ed.). Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press.

Meade, M., & Emch, M. (2010). Medical geography (3rd ed.). New York: Guilford Press.

Murdock, S. H., & Swanson, D. (2008). Applied Demography in the 21st Century: Selected Papers from the Biennial Conference on Applied Demography. New York: Springer.

Poston, D. L., & Bouvier, L. F. (2010). Population and society: An introduction to demography.

Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

Shyrock, H. S. (2013). The methods and materials of demography (2nd ed.). Maryland Heights, MO: Academic Press.

Siegel, J. S. (2001). Applied demography: Applications to business, government, law, and public policy. Maryland Heights, MO: Academic Press.

Swanson, D. (Ed.). (2016). Frontiers of applied demography. New York: Springer.

Chapter 2

The Methods and Materials of Demography

Abstract This chapter reviews the basic materials and methods of demography and their relevance for applied demography as a sub-discipline. Definitions and concepts utilized are described, and basic demographic techniques that have relevance and types of data important for real-world applications are introduced.

2.1

The Demographic Perspective

The demographic perspective provides a unique way of seeing the world. When we view the world through “a demographic lens” we see things that others do not. The “world” of course could mean literally the world or any population of interest.

When demographers observe a classroom of students, the residents of a small town, or the citizens of the United States, for example, they do not see an amorphous mass of individuals. They see a well-ordered population with more or less sharply delineated boundaries between various subgroups.

It is a challenge for anyone to understand what has become an increasingly complex world. Demography provides us a tool for making sense of this complexity. With our demographic eyes we can segment the population we are observing into meaningful subgroups. By segmenting the population into such groups, we gain understanding into the nature of that population. This understanding allows the observer to gain insights into the behaviors observed within that population and ultimately apply demographic concepts, techniques and data to real-world problems.

Much of this text is devoted to a discussion of what demographers see when they look at a population from a demographic perspective.1 Some of the more obvious things that demographers observe are distinctions based on age, sex and race. All of us, of course, intuitively notice basic characteristics of a group that is being observed. We note whether it is a young crowd or an old crowd, the ratio of men to women, and the extent to which the population being observed is racially mixed.

1

Much of the material in this chapter owes a debt to the groundbreaking synthesis published by Shyrock and Siegel (1976) and subsequently revised by Swanson and Siegel (2004).

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018 R. K. Thomas, Concepts, Methods and Practical Applications in Applied Demography, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65439-3_2

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20

2 The Methods and Materials of Demography

Demographers notice these same attributes either directly through observation or indirectly through the compilation of statistics.

Looking at the world through “a demographic lens” allows the observer to identify patterns, trends and relationships that otherwise might go unnoticed.

Demographers take these observations a step further in that they can attribute a wide range of other characteristics to the population under study. If one knows the age composition of the population in question, for example, one knows a lot or other things about that population. Although there will be exceptions, we can make assumptions about that population’s family status, their attitudes, their lifestyles and even their health status. As a specific example, health demographers could develop a profile of the health problems of that population with startling accuracy. Further, demographers can deduce other demographic characteristics from knowing the age structure of the population. They know that a young population is typically going to have an “excess” of males and that an old population is going to have an “excess” of females. By knowing the age and sex distribution of the population demographers can draw conclusions concerning marital status and household structure. By examining combinations of demographic characteristics it becomes possible to draw conclusions concerning occupational status, educational attainment, income levels and so forth.

It is possible for demographers to make these assumptions concerning the population under study because the various demographic attributes are highly interrelated. People of a certain age, for example, are likely to have attributes that set them apart from people in other age cohorts. For a variety of reasons, people who are members of a certain racial or ethnic group are likely to have characteristics that set them apart from members of other racial and ethnic groups. This is not to stereotype members of various groups, of course, and there are always going to be individual exceptions, but to underscore the fact that demographic attributes are interrelated and tend to be distributed in clusters throughout a population.

Demographic characteristics are often interrelated so, if a demographer knows one thing about a population, this opens the door to knowledge of other characteristics of that population.

Hopefully, this text will allow students to begin to view the world through demographic eyes. This is not something that always comes intuitively but hopefully enough tools will be provided in the following sections to allow the reader to begin seeing the world around him in a different light.

2.1 The Demographic Perspective

2.1.1

21

The Demographics of Birth and Death

Demography also provides observers a means of interpreting the world, of understanding social phenomena. One of the obvious insights can be gained with regard to demographic trends. As noted previously, demographics is a two-way street, with the demographic characteristics of a population determining its behavior while, at the same time, the behavior of the population ultimately determining its demographic characteristics. These relationships become clear when one examines basic demographic processes. Of particular significance is the impact of demographic characteristics on fertility or the reproductive behavior of the population. From a “free will” perspective, it could be argued that individuals in society make conscious choices with regard to reproduction. This doesn’t mean that there are not unplanned pregnancies—since there clearly are—but it does suggest that the level of fertility is a function of choices made by millions of Americans on a daily basis.

From a strict demographic perspective it could be contended that the notion of individual volition when it comes to reproduction is overstated. Indeed, it could be argued that one’s social circumstances (manifested in demographic attributes) are a greater predictor of fertility patterns than the vagaries of personal choice. While there are clearly childbearing-aged members of low-income minority groups in the United States who do now want to have children (and most of these avoid having children), the fact of the matter is that the likelihood of pregnancy for this segment of the population is much higher than that for virtually any other segment of the population.

While reproduction is a complicated process and a lot of factors come into play, it is clear that low-income populations have higher fertility rates than high-income populations, that certain racial and ethnic groups have higher fertility levels than other racial and ethnic groups, that immigrant groups have higher fertility rates than native-born populations, that the poorly educated have higher fertility rates than the well educated, and so forth. One would not want to assert that “demographics is destiny” but it is clear that one’s demographic traits exert a considerable influence on reproductive behavior. Because of these clear-cut patterns, demographers are able to predict future fertility patterns and, perhaps more important, predict the future characteristics of the population. They know, for example, that the native-born white population is going to continue to shrink as a proportion of the population for the foreseeable future while minority populations continue to increase their share of the population.

Patterns of fertility and mortality do not exist in a vacuum but are a reflection of the demographic attributes of the population under study.

At the other end of the lifespan, mortality rates are influenced by demographics.

Except in rare circumstances, individuals do not choose the time or cause of their deaths. If anything, it would be assumed that death is a somewhat unpredictable

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“gives me the tongue of instruction, so as to know in season when it is requisite to speak a word;”[1118] not in the way of testimony alone, but also in the way of question and answer. “And the instruction of the Lord opens my mouth.”[1119] It is the prerogative of the Gnostic, then, to know how to make use of speech, and when, and how, and to whom. And already the apostle, by saying, “After the rudiments of the world, and not after Christ,”[1120] makes the asseveration that the Hellenic teaching is elementary, and that of Christ perfect, as we have already intimated before.

“Now the wild olive is inserted into the fatness of the olive,”[1121] and is indeed of the same species as the cultivated olives. For the graft uses as soil the tree in which it is engrafted. Now all the plants sprouted forth simultaneously in consequence of the divine order.

Wherefore also, though the wild olive be wild, it crowns the Olympic victors. And the elm teaches the vine to be fruitful, by leading it up to a height. Now we see that wild trees attract more nutriment, because they cannot ripen. The wild trees, therefore, have less power of secretion than those that are cultivated. And the cause of their wildness is the want of the power of secretion. The engrafted olive accordingly receives more nutriment from its growing in the wild one; and it gets accustomed, as it were, to secrete the nutriment, becoming thus assimilated[1122] to the fatness of the cultivated tree.

So also the philosopher, resembling the wild olive, in having much that is undigested, on account of his devotion to the search, his propensity to follow, and his eagerness to seize the fatness of the truth; if he get besides the divine power, through faith, by being transplanted into the good and mild knowledge, like the wild olive, engrafted in the truly fair and merciful Word, he both assimilates the nutriment that is supplied, and becomes a fair and good olive tree.

For engrafting makes worthless shoots noble, and compels the barren to be fruitful by the art of culture and by gnostic skill.

Different modes of engrafting illustrative of different kinds of conversion.

They say that engrafting is effected in four modes: one, that in which the graft must be fitted in between the wood and the bark; resembling the way in which we instruct plain people belonging to the Gentiles, who receive the word superficially. Another is, when the wood is cleft, and there is inserted in it the cultivated branch. And this applies to the case of those who have studied philosophy; for on cutting through their dogmas, the acknowledgment of the truth is produced in them. So also in the case of the Jews, by opening up the Old Testament, the new and noble plant of the olive is inserted.

The third mode of engrafting applies to rustics and heretics, who are brought by force to the truth. For after smoothing off both suckers with a sharp pruning-hook, till the pith is laid bare, but not wounded, they are bound together. And the fourth is that form of engrafting called budding. For a bud (eye) is cut out of a trunk of a good sort, a circle being drawn round in the bark along with it, of the size of the palm. Then the trunk is stripped, to suit the eye, over an equal circumference. And so the graft is inserted, tied round, and daubed with clay, the bud being kept uninjured and unstained. This is the style of gnostic teaching, which is capable of looking into things themselves. This mode is, in truth, of most service in the case of cultivated trees. And “the engrafting into the good olive” mentioned by the apostle, may be [engrafting into] Christ Himself; the uncultivated and unbelieving nature being transplanted into Christ— that is, in the case of those who believe in Christ. But it is better [to understand it] of the engrafting[1123] of each one’s faith in the soul itself. For also the Holy Spirit is thus somehow transplanted by distribution, according to the circumscribed capacity of each one, but without being circumscribed.

Knowledge and love.

Now, discoursing on knowledge, Solomon speaks thus: “For wisdom is resplendent and fadeless, and is easily beheld by those who love her. She is beforehand in making herself known to those who desire her. He that rises early for her shall not toil wearily. For to think about her is the perfection of good sense. And he that keeps vigils for her shall quickly be relieved of anxiety. For she goes about,

herself seeking those worthy of her (for knowledge belongs not to all); and in all ways she benignly shows herself to them.”[1124] Now the paths are the conduct of life, and the variety that exists in the covenants. Presently he adds: “And in every thought she meets them,”[1125] being variously contemplated, that is, by all discipline.

Then he subjoins, adducing love, which perfects by syllogistic reasoning and true propositions, drawing thus a most convincing and true inference, “For the beginning of her is the truest desire of instruction,” that is, of knowledge; “prudence is the love of instruction, and love is the keeping of its laws; and attention to its laws is the confirmation of immortality; and immortality causes nearness to God. The desire of wisdom leads, then, to the kingdom.”[1126] For he teaches, as I think, that true instruction is desire for knowledge; and the practical exercise of instruction produces love of knowledge. And love is the keeping of the commandments which lead to knowledge. And the keeping of them is the establishment of the commandments, from which immortality results. “And immortality brings us near to God.” True knowledge found in the teaching of Christ alone.

If, then, the love of knowledge produces immortality, and leads the kingly man near to God the King, knowledge ought to be sought till it is found. Now seeking is an effort at grasping, and finds the subject by means of certain signs. And discovery is the end and cessation of inquiry, which has now its object in its grasp. And this is knowledge.

And this discovery, properly so called, is knowledge, which is the apprehension of the object of search. And they say that a proof is either the antecedent, or the coincident, or the consequent. The discovery, then, of what is sought respecting God, is the teaching through the Son; and the proof of our Saviour being the very Son of God is the prophecies which preceded His coming, announcing Him; and the testimonies regarding Him which attended His birth in the world; in addition, His powers proclaimed and openly shown after His ascension.

The proof of the truth being with us, is the fact of the Son of God Himself having taught us. For if in every inquiry these universals are found, a person and a subject, that which is truly the truth is shown to be in our hands alone. For the Son of God is the person of the truth which is exhibited; and the subject is the power of faith, which prevails over the opposition of every one whatever, and the assault of the whole world.

But since this is confessedly established by eternal facts and reasons, and each one who thinks that there is no Providence has already been seen to deserve punishment and not contradiction, and is truly an atheist, it is our aim to discover what doing, and in what manner living, we shall reach the knowledge of the sovereign God, and how, honouring the Divinity, we may become authors of our own salvation. Knowing and learning, not from the Sophists, but from God Himself, what is well-pleasing to Him, we endeavour to do what is just and holy. Now it is well-pleasing to Him that we should be saved; and salvation is effected through both well-doing and knowledge, of both of which the Lord is the teacher.

If, then, according to Plato, it is only possible to learn the truth either from God or from the progeny of God, with reason we, selecting testimonies from the divine oracles, boast of learning the truth by the Son of God, prophesied at first, and then explained.

Philosophy and heresies, aids in discovering the truth.

But the things which co-operate in the discovery of truth are not to be rejected. Philosophy, accordingly, which proclaims a Providence, and the recompense of a life of felicity, and the punishment, on the other hand, of a life of misery, teaches theology comprehensively; but it does not preserve accuracy and particular points; for neither respecting the Son of God, nor respecting the economy of Providence, does it treat similarly with us; for it did not know the worship of God. Wherefore also the heresies of the Barbarian philosophy, although they speak of one God, though they sing the praises of Christ, speak without accuracy, not in accordance with truth; for they discover

another God, and receive Christ not as the prophecies deliver. But their false dogmas, while they oppose the conduct that is according to the truth, are against us. For instance, Paul circumcised Timothy because of the Jews who believed, in order that those who had received their training from the law might not revolt from the faith through his breaking such points of the law as were understood more carnally, knowing right well that circumcision does not justify; for he professed that “all things were for all” by conformity, preserving those of the dogmas that were essential, “that he might gain all.”[1127] And Daniel, under the king of the Persians, wore “the chain,”[1128] though he despised not the affliction of the people.

The liars, then, in reality are not those who for the sake of the scheme of salvation conform, nor those who err in minute points, but those who are wrong in essentials, and reject the Lord, and as far as in them lies deprive the Lord of the true teaching; who do not quote or deliver the Scriptures in a manner worthy of God and of the Lord; for the deposit rendered to God, according to the teaching of the Lord by His apostles, is the understanding and the practice of the godly tradition. “And what ye hear in the ear”—that is, in a hidden manner, and in a mystery (for such things are figuratively said to be spoken in the ear)—“proclaim,” He says, “on the house-tops,” understanding them sublimely, and delivering them in a lofty strain, and according to the canon of the truth explaining the Scriptures; for neither prophecy nor the Saviour Himself announced the divine mysteries simply so as to be easily apprehended by all and sundry, but expressed them in parables. The apostles accordingly say of the Lord, that “He spake all things in parables, and without a parable spake He nothing unto them;”[1129] and if “all things were made by Him, and without Him was not anything made that was made,”[1130] consequently also prophecy and the law were by Him, and were spoken by Him in parables. “But all things are right,” says the Scripture,[1131] “before those who understand,” that is, those who receive and observe, according to the ecclesiastical rule, the exposition of the Scriptures explained by Him; and the ecclesiastical rule is the concord and harmony of the law and the prophets in the covenant delivered at the coming of the Lord. Knowledge is then

followed by practical wisdom, and practical wisdom by self-control: for it may be said that practical wisdom is divine knowledge, and exists in those who are deified; but that self-control is mortal, and subsists in those who philosophize, and are not yet wise. But if virtue is divine, so is also the knowledge of it; while self-control is a sort of imperfect wisdom which aspires after wisdom, and exerts itself laboriously, and is not contemplative. As certainly righteousness, being human, is, as being a common thing, subordinate to holiness, which subsists through the divine righteousness;[1132] for the righteousness of the perfect man does not rest on civil contracts, or on the prohibition of law, but flows from his own spontaneous action and his love to God. Reasons for the meaning of Scripture being veiled.

For many reasons, then, the Scriptures hide the sense. First, that we may become inquisitive, and be ever on the watch for the discovery of the words of salvation. Then it was not suitable for all to understand, so that they might not receive harm in consequence of taking in another sense the things declared for salvation by the Holy Spirit. Wherefore the holy mysteries of the prophecies are veiled in the parables—preserved for chosen men, selected to knowledge in consequence of their faith; for the style of the Scriptures is parabolic.

Wherefore also the Lord, who was not of the world, came as one who was of the world to men. For He was clothed with all virtue; and it was His aim to lead man, the foster-child of the world, up to the objects of intellect, and to the most essential truths by knowledge, from one world to another.

Wherefore also He employed metaphorical description; for such is the parable,—a narration based on some subject which is not the principal subject, but similar to the principal subject, and leading him who understands to what is the true and principal thing; or, as some say, a mode of speech presenting with vigour, by means of other circumstances, what is the principal subject.

And now also the whole economy which prophesied of the Lord appears indeed a parable to those who know not the truth, when one

speaks and the rest hear that the Son of God—of Him who made the universe—assumed flesh, and was conceived in the virgin’s womb (as His material body was produced), and subsequently, as was the case, suffered and rose again, being “to the Jews a stumbling-block, and to the Greeks foolishness,” as the apostle says.

But on the Scriptures being opened up, and declaring the truth to those who have ears, they proclaim the very suffering endured by the flesh, which the Lord assumed, to be “the power and wisdom of God.” And finally, the parabolic style of Scripture being of the greatest antiquity, as we have shown, abounded most, as was to be expected, in the prophets, in order that the Holy Spirit might show that the philosophers among the Greeks, and the wise men among the Barbarians besides, were ignorant of the future coming of the Lord, and of the mystic teaching that was to be delivered by Him. Rightly then, prophecy, in proclaiming the Lord, in order not to seem to some to blaspheme while speaking what was beyond the ideas of the multitude, embodied its declarations in expressions capable of leading to other conceptions. Now all the prophets who foretold the Lord’s coming, and the holy mysteries accompanying it, were persecuted and killed. As also the Lord Himself, in explaining the Scriptures to them, and His disciples who preached the word like Him, and subsequently to His life used parables.[1133] Whence also Peter, in his Preaching, speaking of the apostles, says: “But we, unrolling the books of the prophets which we possess, who name Jesus Christ, partly in parables, partly in enigmas, partly expressly and in so many words, find His coming and death, and cross, and all the rest of the tortures which the Jews inflicted on Him, and His resurrection and assumption to heaven previous to the capture[1134] of Jerusalem. As it is written, These things are all that He behoved to suffer, and what should be after Him. Recognising them, therefore, we have believed in God in consequence of what is written respecting Him.” And after a little again he draws the inference that the Scriptures owed their origin to the divine providence, asserting as follows: “For we know that God enjoined these things, and we say nothing apart from the Scriptures.”

Now the Hebrew dialect, like all the rest, has certain properties, consisting in a mode of speech which exhibits the national character.

Dialect is accordingly defined as a style of speech produced by the national character. But prophecy is not marked by those dialects. For in the Hellenic writings, what are called changes of figures purposely produce obscurations, deduced after the style of our prophecies. But this is effected through the voluntary departure from direct speech which takes place in metrical or offhand diction. A figure, then, is a form of speech transferred from what is literal to what is not literal, for the sake of the composition, and on account of a diction useful in speech.

But prophecy does not employ figurative forms in the expressions for the sake of beauty of diction. But from the fact that truth appertains not to all, it is veiled in manifold ways, causing the light to arise only on those who are initiated into knowledge, who seek the truth through love. The proverb, according to the Barbarian philosophy, is called a mode of prophecy, and the parable is so called, and the enigma in addition. Further also, they are called “wisdom;” and again, as something different from it, “instruction and words of prudence,” and “turnings of words,” and “true righteousness;” and again, “teaching to direct judgment,” and “subtlety to the simple,” which is the result of training, “and perception and thought,” with which the young catechumen is imbued.[1135] “He who hears these prophets, being wise, will be wiser. And the intelligent man will acquire rule, and will understand a parable and a dark saying, the words and enigmas of the wise.”[1136] And if it was the case that the Hellenic dialects received their appellation from Hellen, the son of Zeus, surnamed Deucalion, from the chronology which we have already exhibited, it is comparatively easy to perceive by how many generations the dialects that obtained among the Greeks are posterior to the language of the Hebrews.

But as the work advances, we shall in each section, noting the figures of speech mentioned above by the prophet,[1137] exhibit the gnostic mode of life, showing it systematically according to the rule of the truth.

Did not the Power also, that appeared to Hermas in the Vision, in the form of the Church, give for transcription the book which she wished to be made known to the elect? And this, he says, he transcribed to the letter, without finding how to complete the syllables. And this signified that the Scripture is clear to all, when taken according to the bare reading; and that this is the faith which occupies the place of the rudiments. Wherefore also the figurative expression is employed, “reading according to the letter;” while we understand that the gnostic unfolding of the Scriptures, when faith has already reached an advanced state, is likened to reading according to the syllables.

Further, Esaias the prophet is ordered to take “a new book, and write in it”[1138] certain things: the Spirit prophesying that through the exposition of the Scriptures there would come afterwards the sacred knowledge, which at that period was still unwritten, because not yet known. For it was spoken from the beginning to those only who understand. Now that the Saviour has taught the apostles, the unwritten rendering of the written [Scripture] has been handed down also to us, inscribed by the power of God on hearts new, according to the renovation of the book. Thus those of highest repute among the Greeks, dedicate the fruit of the pomegranate to Hermes, who they say is speech, on account of its interpretation. For speech conceals much. Rightly, therefore, Jesus the son of Nave saw Moses, when taken up [to heaven], double,—one Moses with the angels, and one on the mountains, honoured with burial in their ravines. And Jesus saw this spectacle below, being elevated by the Spirit, along also with Caleb. But both do not see similarly. But the one descended with greater speed, as if the weight he carried was great; while the other, on descending after him, subsequently related the glory which he beheld, being able to perceive more than the other, as having grown purer; the narrative, in my opinion, showing that knowledge is not the privilege of all. Since some look at the body of the Scriptures, the expressions and the names as to the body of Moses; while others see through to the thoughts and what is signified by the names, seeking the Moses that is with the angels.

Many also of those who called to the Lord said, “Son of David, have mercy on me.”[1139] A few, too, knew Him as the Son of God; as Peter, whom also He pronounced blessed, “for flesh and blood revealed not the truth to him, but His Father in heaven,”[1140]— showing that the Gnostic recognises the Son of the Omnipotent, not

by His flesh conceived in the womb, but by the Father’s own power.

That it is therefore not only to those who read simply that the acquisition of the truth is so difficult, but that not even to those whose prerogative the knowledge of the truth is, is the contemplation of it vouchsafed all at once, the history of Moses teaches, until, accustomed to gaze, as the Hebrews on the glory of Moses, and the prophets of Israel on the visions of angels, so we also become able to look the splendours of truth in the face.

CHAPTER XVI. GNOSTIC EXPOSITION OF THE DECALOGUE.

Let the Decalogue be set forth cursorily by us as a specimen for gnostic exposition.

The number “Ten.” That ten is a sacred number, it is superfluous to say now. And if the tables that were written were the work of God, they will be found to exhibit physical creation. For by the “finger of God” is understood the power of God, by which the creation of heaven and earth is accomplished; of both of which the tables will be understood to be symbols. For the writing and handiwork of God put on the table is the creation of the world.

And the Decalogue, viewed as an image of heaven, embraces sun and moon, stars, clouds, light, wind, water, air, darkness, fire.

This is the physical Decalogue of the heaven.

And the representation of the earth contains men, cattle, reptiles, wild beasts; and of the inhabitants of the water, fishes and whales; and again, of the winged tribes, those that are carnivorous, and those that use mild food; and of plants likewise, both fruit-bearing and barren. This is the physical Decalogue of the earth.

And the ark which held them[1141] will then be the knowledge of divine and human things and wisdom.[1142] And perhaps the two tables themselves may be the prophecy of the two covenants. They were accordingly mystically renewed, as ignorance along with sin abounded. The commandments are written, then, doubly, as appears, for twofold spirits, the ruling and the subject. “For the flesh lusteth against the Spirit, and the Spirit against the flesh.”[1143] And there is a ten in man himself: the five senses, and the power of speech, and that of reproduction; and the eighth is the spiritual

principle communicated at his creation; and the ninth the ruling faculty of the soul; and tenth, there is the distinctive characteristic of the Holy Spirit, which comes to him through faith.

Besides, in addition to these ten human parts, the law appears to give its injunctions[1144] to sight, and hearing, and smell, and touch, and taste, and to the organs subservient to these, which are double —the hands and the feet. For such is the formation of man. And the soul is introduced, and previous to it the ruling faculty, by which we reason, not produced in procreation; so that without it there is made up the number ten, of the faculties by which all the activity of man is carried out. For in order, straightway on man’s entering existence, his life begins with sensations. We accordingly assert that rational and ruling power is the cause of the constitution of the living creature; also that this, the irrational part, is animated, and is a part of it. Now the vital force, in which is comprehended the power of nutrition and growth, and generally of motion, is assigned to the carnal spirit, which has great susceptibility of motion, and passes in all directions through the senses and the rest of the body, and through the body is the primary subject of sensations. But the power of choice, in which investigation, and study, and knowledge, reside, belongs to the ruling faculty. But all the faculties are placed in relation to one—the ruling faculty: it is through that man lives, and lives in a certain way.

Through the corporeal spirit, then, man perceives, desires, rejoices, is angry, is nourished, grows. It is by it, too, that thoughts and conceptions advance to actions. And when it masters the desires, the ruling faculty reigns.

The commandment, then, “Thou shalt not lust,” says, thou shalt not serve the carnal spirit, but shalt rule over it; “for the flesh lusteth against the Spirit,”[1145] and excites to disorderly conduct against nature; “and the Spirit against the flesh” exercises sway, in order that the conduct of the man may be according to nature.

Is not man, then, rightly said “to have been made in the image of God?”—not in the form of his [corporeal] structure; but inasmuch as God creates all things by the Word (λόγῳ), and the man who has

become a Gnostic performs good actions by the faculty of reason (τῷ λογικῷ), properly therefore the two tables are also said to mean the commandments that were given to the twofold spirits,—those communicated before the law to that which was created, and to the ruling faculty; and the movements of the senses are both copied in the mind, and manifested in the activity which proceeds from the body. For apprehension results from both combined. Again, as sensation is related to the world of sense, so is thought to that of intellect. And actions are twofold—those of thought, those of act.

The First Commandment.

The first commandment of the Decalogue shows that there is one only Sovereign God;[1146] who led the people from the land of Egypt through the desert to their fatherland; that they might apprehend His power, as they were able, by means of the divine works, and withdraw from the idolatry of created things, putting all their hope in the true God. The Second Commandment.

The second word[1147] intimated that men ought not to take and confer the august power of God (which is the name, for this alone were many even yet capable of learning), and transfer His title to things created and vain, which human artificers have made, among which “He that is” is not ranked. For in His uncreated identity, “He that is” is absolutely alone.

The Fourth Commandment.

And the fourth[1148] word is that which intimates that the world was created by God, and that He gave us the seventh day as a rest, on account of the trouble that there is in life. For God is incapable of weariness, and suffering, and want. But we who bear flesh need rest. The seventh day, therefore, is proclaimed a rest—abstraction from ills—preparing for the Primal Day,[1149] our true rest; which, in truth, is the first creation of light, in which all things are viewed and possessed. From this day the first wisdom and knowledge illuminate

us. For the light of truth—a light true, casting no shadow, is the Spirit of God indivisibly divided to all, who are sanctified by faith, holding the place of a luminary, in order to the knowledge of real existences.

By following Him, therefore, through our whole life, we become impassible; and this is to rest.

Wherefore Solomon also says, that before heaven, and earth, and all existences, Wisdom had arisen in the Almighty; the participation of which—that which is by power, I mean, not that by essence— teaches a man to know by apprehension things divine and human.

Having reached this point, we must mention these things by the way; since the discourse has turned on the seventh and the eighth. For the eighth may possibly turn out to be properly the seventh, and the seventh manifestly the sixth, and the latter properly the Sabbath, and the seventh a day of work. For the creation of the world was concluded in six days. For the motion of the sun from solstice to solstice is completed in six months—in the course of which, at one time the leaves fall, and at another plants bud and seeds come to maturity. And they say that the embryo is perfected exactly in the sixth month, that is, in one hundred and eighty days in addition to the two and a half, as Polybus the physician relates in his book On the Eighth Month, and Aristotle the philosopher in his book On Nature.

Hence the Pythagoreans, as I think, reckon six the perfect number, from the creation of the world, according to the prophet, and call it Meseuthys[1150] and Marriage, from its being the middle of the even numbers, that is, of ten and two. For it is manifestly at an equal distance from both.

And as marriage generates from male and female, so six is generated from the odd number three, which is called the masculine number, and the even number two, which is considered the feminine.

For twice three are six.

Such, again, is the number of the most general motions, according to which all origination takes place—up, down, to the right, to the left, forward, backward. Rightly, then, they reckon the number seven motherless and childless, interpreting the Sabbath, and figuratively expressing the nature of the rest, in which “they neither

marry nor are given in marriage any more.”[1151] For neither by taking from one number and adding to another of those within ten is seven produced; nor when added to any number within the ten does it make up any of them.

And they call eight a cube, counting the fixed sphere along with the seven revolving ones, by which is produced “the great year,” as a kind of period of recompense of what has been promised.

Thus the Lord, who ascended the mountain, the fourth,[1152] becomes the sixth, and is illuminated all round with spiritual light, by laying bare the power proceeding from Him, as far as those selected to see were able to behold it, by the Seventh, the Voice, proclaimed to be the Son of God; in order that they, persuaded respecting Him, might have rest; while He by His birth, which was indicated by the six conspicuously marked, becoming the eighth, might appear to be God in a body of flesh, by displaying His power, being numbered indeed as a man, but being concealed as to who He was. For six is reckoned in the order of numbers, but the succession of the letters acknowledges the character which is not written. In this case, in the numbers themselves, each unit is preserved in its order up to seven and eight. But in the number of the characters, Zeta becomes six and Eta seven.

And the character[1153] having somehow slipped into writing, should we follow it out thus, the seven became six, and the eight seven.

Wherefore also man is said to have been made on the sixth day, who became faithful to Him who is the sign (τῷ ἐπισήμῳ[1154]), so as straightway to receive the rest of the Lord’s inheritance. Some such thing also is indicated by the sixth hour in the scheme of salvation, in which man was perfected. Further, of the eight, the intermediates are seven; and of the seven, the intervals are shown to be six. For that is another ground, in which seven glorifies eight, and “the heavens declare to the heavens the glory of God.”[1155] The sensible types of these, then, are the sounds we pronounce.

Thus the Lord Himself is called “Alpha and Omega, the beginning

and the end,”[1156] “by whom all things were made, and without whom not even one thing was made.”[1157] God’s resting is not, then, as some conceive, that God ceased from doing. For, being good, if He should ever cease from doing good, then would He cease from being God, which it is sacrilege even to say. The resting is, therefore, the ordering that the order of created things should be preserved inviolate, and that each of the creatures should cease from the ancient disorder. For the creations on the different days followed in a most important succession; so that all things brought into existence might have honour from priority, created together in thought, but not being of equal worth. Nor was the creation of each signified by the voice, inasmuch as the creative work is said to have made them at once. For something must needs have been named first. Wherefore those things were announced first, from which came those that were second, all things being originated together from one essence by one power. For the will of God was one, in one identity. And how could creation take place in time, seeing time was born along with the things which exist?

And now the whole world of creatures born alive, and things that grow, revolves in sevens. The first-born princes of the angels, who have the greatest power, are seven. The mathematicians also say that the planets, which perform their course around the earth, are seven; by which the Chaldeans think that all which concerns mortal life is effected through sympathy, in consequence of which they also undertake to tell things respecting the future.

And of the fixed stars, the Pleiades are seven. And the Bears, by the help of which agriculture and navigation are carried through, consist of seven stars. And in periods of seven days the moon undergoes its changes. In the first week she becomes half moon; in the second, full moon; and in the third, in her wane, again half moon; and in the fourth she disappears. Further, as Seleucus the mathematician lays down, she has seven phases. First, from being invisible she becomes crescent-shaped, then half moon, then gibbous and full; and in her wane again gibbous, and in like manner half moon and crescent-shaped.

“On a seven-stringed lyre we shall sing new hymns,”

writes a poet of note, teaching us that the ancient lyre was seventoned. The organs of the senses situated on our face are also seven —two eyes, two passages of hearing, two nostrils, and the seventh the mouth.

And that the changes in the periods of life take place by sevens, the Elegies of Solon teach thus: “The child, while still an infant, in seven years, Produces and puts forth its fence of teeth; And when God seven years more completes, He shows of puberty’s approach the signs; And in the third, the beard on growing cheek With down o’erspreads the bloom of changing skin; And in the fourth septenniad, at his best In strength, of manliness he shows the signs; And in the fifth, of marriage, now mature, And of posterity, the man bethinks; Nor does he yet desire vain works to see.

The seventh and eighth septenniads see him now In mind and speech mature, till fifty years; And in the ninth he still has vigour left, But strength and body are for virtue great Less than of yore; when, seven years more, God brings To end, then not too soon may he submit to die.”

Again, in diseases the seventh day is that of the crisis; and the fourteenth, in which nature struggles against the causes of the diseases. And a myriad such instances are adduced by Hermippus of Berytus, in his book On the Number Seven, regarding it as holy.

And the blessed David delivers clearly to those who know the mystic account of seven and eight, praising thus: “Our years were exercised like a spider. The days of our years in them are seventy years; but if in strength, eighty years. And that will be to reign.”[1158] That, then, we may be taught that the world was originated, and not suppose that God made it in time, prophecy adds: “This is the book of the generation: also of the things in them, when they were created in the day that God made heaven and earth.”[1159] For the expression

“when they were created” intimates an indefinite and dateless production. But the expression “in the day that God made,” that is, in and by which God made “all things,” and “without which not even one thing was made,” points out the activity exerted by the Son. As David says, “This is the day which the Lord hath made; let us be glad and rejoice in it;”[1160] that is, in consequence of the knowledge imparted by Him, let us celebrate the divine festival; for the Word that throws light on things hidden, and by whom each created thing came into life and being, is called day.

And, in fine, the Decalogue, by the letter Iota,[1161] signifies the blessed name, presenting Jesus, who is the Word.

The Fifth Commandment.

Now the fifth in order is the command on the honour of father and mother. And it clearly announces God as Father and Lord.

Wherefore also it calls those who know Him sons and gods. The Creator of the universe is their Lord and Father; and the mother is not, as some say, the essence from which we sprang, nor, as others teach, the church, but the divine knowledge and wisdom, as Solomon says, when he terms wisdom “the mother of the just,” and says that it is desirable for its own sake. And the knowledge of all, again, that is lovely and venerable, proceeds from God through the Son. The Seventh Commandment.

This is followed by the command respecting adultery. Now it is adultery, if one, abandoning the ecclesiastical and true knowledge, and the persuasion respecting God, accedes to false and incongruous opinion, either by deifying any created object, or by making an idol of anything that exists not, so as to overstep, or rather step from, knowledge. And to the Gnostic false opinion is foreign, as the true belongs to him, and is allied with him. Wherefore the noble apostle calls one of the kinds of fornication, idolatry,[1162] in following the prophet, who says: “[My people] hath committed

fornication with stock and stone. They have said to the stock, Thou art my father; and to the stone, Thou hast begotten me.”[1163] The Sixth Commandment.

Then follows the command about murder. Now murder is a sure destruction. He, then, that wishes to extirpate the true doctrine of God and of immortality, in order to introduce falsehood, alleging either that the universe is not under Providence, or that the world is uncreated, or affirming anything against true doctrine, is most pernicious.

The Eighth Commandment.

And after this is the command respecting theft. As, then, he that steals what is another’s, doing great wrong, rightly incurs ills suitable to his deserts; so also does he, who arrogates to himself divine works by the art of the statuary or the painter, and pronounces himself to be the maker of animals and plants. Likewise those, too, who mimic the true philosophy are thieves. Whether one be a husbandman or the father of a child, he is an agent in depositing seeds. But it is God who, ministering the growth and perfection of all things, brings the things produced to what is in accordance with their nature. But the most, in common also with the philosophers, attribute growth and changes to the stars as the primary cause, robbing the Father of the universe, as far as in them lies, of His tireless might.

The elements, however, and the stars—that is, the administrative powers—are ordained for the accomplishment of what is essential to the administration, and are influenced and moved by what is commanded to them, in the way in which the Word of the Lord leads, since it is the nature of the divine power to work all things secretly.

He, accordingly, who alleges that he has conceived or made anything which pertains to creation, will suffer the punishment of his impious audacity.

The Tenth Commandment.

And the tenth is the command respecting all lusts. As, then, he who entertains unbecoming desires is called to account; in the same way he is not allowed to desire things false, or to suppose that, of created objects, those that are animate have power of themselves, and that inanimate things can at all save or hurt. And should one say that an antidote cannot heal or hemlock kill, he is unwittingly deceived. For none of these operates except one makes use of the plant and the drug; just as the axe does not without one to cut with it, or a saw without one sawing with it. And as they do not work by themselves, but have certain physical qualities which accomplish their proper work by the exertion of the artisan; so also, by the universal providence of God, through the medium of secondary causes, the operative power is propagated in succession to individual objects.