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Denying to the Grave

Denying to the Grave

Sara E. Gorman

Jack M. Gorman

1

Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries.

Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America.

© Oxford University Press 2021

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above.

You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Gorman, Sara E., editor. | Gorman, Jack M., editor. Title: Denying to the grave : why we ignore the science that will save us / Sara E. Gorman and Jack M. Gorman, [editors].

Description: Revised and updated edition. | New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2021] | Previous edition entered under: Sara E. Gorman. | Includes bibliographical references and index. |

Identifiers: LCCN 2020054636 (print) | LCCN 2020054637 (ebook) | ISBN 9780197547458 (hardback) | ISBN 9780197547472 (epub) | ISBN 9780197547489 (Digital-Online)

Subjects: LCSH: Social medicine. | Science— Methodology. | Skepticism. | Belief and doubt (Psychology) | Denial (Psychology)

Classification: LCC RA418 .G64 2021 (print) | LCC RA418 (ebook) | DDC 362.1— dc23

LC record available at https:// lccn.loc.gov/2020054636

LC ebook record available at https:// lccn.loc.gov/2020054637

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197547458.001.0001

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America

In memory of Howard Kantor, tireless devotee of science and medicine, beloved father, grandfather, and husband and of Kate Gorman, beloved mother, grandmother, and great grandmother.

Author’s Note ix Acknowledgments xi

Introduction: Science Denial Comes of Age 1

one Conspiracy Theories 39

two Charismatic Leaders 77 three Confirmation Bias 125

four Causality and Filling the Ignorance Gap 163

five Avoidance of Complexity 195

six Risk Perception and Probability 237

seven Science Denial in Crisis 277

eight The Attack on Health and Science Institutions 303 Conclusion 333

Authors’ Note

The information in this book is not intended to replace the advice of the reader’s own physician or other medical professional. You should consult a medical professional in matters relating to your health, especially if you have existing medical conditions, and before starting, stopping, or changing the dose of any medication you are taking. Individual readers are solely responsible for their own healthcare decisions. The authors and the publisher do not accept responsibility for any adverse effects individuals may claim to experience, whether directly or indirectly, from the information contained in this book.

Acknowledgments

We would like to express our gratitude to all the wonderful, inspiring people who helped us write this book. First and foremost, we thank all of the brilliant scholars and medical and public health practitioners, without whose contributions to our growing body of knowledge about neuroscience, psychology, and health decision-making this book would have been impossible to write. We’d like to thank in particular the following scholars, who all generously served as interlocutors at some stage during the writing of this book: Daniel Kahneman, Michael Shermer, Seth Mnookin, Tal Gross, Kate Starbird, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Howard Neukrug, Yochai Benkler, and Nicoli Nattrass. We are very grateful to the anonymous reviewers of the book whose input was critical in shaping and improving our final product. We are indebted to the wonderful people at Oxford University Press, including our fantastic editor, Sarah Harrington, whose sharp insight was always much appreciated.

Sara would also like to thank her colleagues and mentors at work for allowing her the time and flexibility to work on the book and for supporting and encouraging her along the way.

Many people provided intellectual and emotional support to Jack that was indispensable in writing this book, and he is especially grateful to Colin Leinster, Richard Munich, Catherine DiDesidero, Amy

Monahan, Dionne Monsanto, Fletcher Harper, Bruce Brady, Rabbi Avi Weiss, Rabbi Steven Exler, Alexandra Roth-Kahn, Stan Arkow, Cindy Aaronson, Marc and Harriet Suvall, Gary and Jamie Gordon, Ben and Barbara Zucker, Joel Einlinger, Miriam Westheimer, Carol Clayton, Leigh Steiner, and David Bressman for their creative ideas and friendship.

We would like to thank our wonderful Critica team, starting with David Scales, a great physician, scholar, moral compass, and friend and including Cody Leff, Catherine DiDesidero, Cindy Goldstein, and Peter DiCaprio.

Finally, there are many amazing people in our personal lives who have offered us critical support as we undertook this journey. Because we are father and daughter, we have most of them in common. We are deeply grateful to Rachel Moster, Sara’s sister and Jack’s daughter, and David Moster, Rachel’s husband, for being our all-time champions, for always being there for us, and for always sharing our excitement with their overwhelming warmth, intellectual prowess, and zest.

We wrote this book with the people of the future in mind, who face the consequences of the climate crisis and all the other mistakes our generations make. They need all of us to embrace the scientific realities of what we are doing and should be doing immediately. In particular, we think with love of Jack’s three grandchildren, Hannah Beth Moster, Jonah Moster, and Raphael Kohen, who is also Sara’s son.

Two people are the bedrock and inspiration for all we do. Lauren Kantor Gorman, Sara’s mother and Jack’s wife, is the beacon of light in the madness that sometimes comes from writing a book. As a brilliant psychiatrist, she has wonderful insights into the emotional basis for people’s choices and decisions that helped us enormously in focusing our own ideas. We thank her for always being so steady, reliable, and smart, and for showering us with her constant love and warmth. Last but by no means least, we’d like to thank Robert Kohen, Sara’s husband and Jack’s son-in-law. Robert is our brilliant interlocutor, our intellectual companion, and our unending inspiration. Thank you for being you.

Introduction

Science Denial Comes of Age

ON OCTOBER 8, 2014, THOMAS ERIC DUNCAN DIED IN A Dallas hospital from Ebola virus infection. From the moment he was diagnosed with Ebola newspapers all over the country blared the news that the first case of Ebola in the United States had occurred. Blame for his death was immediately assigned to the hospital that cared for him and to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).1 By the end of the month a total of four cases had developed in the United States: two in people—including Duncan, who acquired it in African countries where the disease was epidemic— and two in nurses who cared for Duncan. Headlines about Ebola continued to dominate the pages of American newspapers throughout the month, warning of the risk we now faced of this deadly disease. These media reports were frightening and caused some people to wonder if it was safe to send their children to school or ride on public transportation— even if they lived miles from any of the four cases. “There are reports of kids being pulled out of schools and even some school closings,” reported Dean Baker in the Huffington Post. “People in many areas are not going to work and others are driving cars rather than taking mass transit because they

fear catching Ebola from fellow passengers. There are also reports of people staying away from stores, restaurants, and other public places.”2 An elementary school in Maine suspended a teacher because she stayed in a hotel in Dallas that is 9.5 miles away from the hospital where two nurses contracted the virus.3 As Charles Blow put it in his New York Times column, “We aren’t battling a virus in this country as much as a mania, one whipped up by reactionary politicians and irresponsible media.”4

It turns out that Thomas Duncan was not the only person who died in the United States on October 8, 2014. If we extrapolate from national annual figures, we can say that on that day almost 7,000 people died in the United States. About half of them died of either heart disease or cancer; 331 from accidents, of which automobile accidents are the most common; and 105 by suicide.5 About 80 people were killed by gunshot wounds the day that Thomas Eric Duncan died, two thirds of which were self-inflicted. National Public Radio correspondent Michaeleen Doucleff made a rough calculation and determined that the risk of contracting Ebola in the United States was 1 in 13.3 million, far less than the risk of dying in a plane crash, from a bee sting, by being struck by lightning, or being attacked by a shark.6 The chance of being killed in a car crash is about 1,500 times greater than the risk of getting infected with the Ebola virus in the United States.

It probably comes as no surprise that there were very few frontpage headlines about bee stings or shark attacks on October 8, 2014, let alone about car crashes and gun violence. Perhaps this seems natural. After all, Ebola virus infection, the cause of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, is unusual in the United States, whereas heart attacks, cancer, car crashes, suicide, and murder happen on a regular basis. The problem, however, with the media emphasizing (and ordinary people fearing) Ebola over other far more prevalent health threats is that it shapes our behavior, sometimes in dangerous ways. How many people smoked a cigarette or consumed a sugary breakfast cereal while reading about the threat they faced in catching Ebola? Some Americans jumped on the blame-game bandwagon, attacking the CDC, insisting that politicians and hospitals had dropped the ball and accusing African countries of ignorant, superstitious behavior. In Washington, DC, one quarter of the members of Trinity

Episcopal Church stopped attending services because they feared that some fellow parishioners might have traveled to West Africa.7 An Ohio bridal shop owner reported losing tens of thousands of dollars because Amber Vinson, one of two Dallas-based nurses who tested positive for Ebola, had visited her shop. The owner closed the store during the incubation period and had the store professionally cleaned, but “a string of frightened customers canceled their orders.”8 According to a presidential commission report, “Americans focused on their own almost nonexistent risk of catching Ebola from travelers instead of pressing to help the truly affected nations.”9 It is quite likely that most of these frightened Americans did not increase their exercise, cut down on eating processed foods, fasten their seat belts, quit smoking, make sure guns in the home were unloaded in locked cases, or get help for depression and alcoholism. The novelty of Ebola was exciting, like watching a horror movie. Those other causes of death are familiar and boring. In other words, Americans acted in an irrational way, overestimating the risk of Ebola and underestimating the risk of the life-threatening phenomena about which they might be able to do something. As Sara pointed out in an article she wrote that month, “What is the most effective treatment for Americans to protect themselves from early death by an infectious pathogen? A flu shot.”10

Fast forward to the spring and summer of 2020 in America. A new pathogen had taken the nation by storm. SARS CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was spreading across the country with few signs of slowing any time soon. By August, the illness had already sickened almost 6 million people and killed more than 180,000 in the United States. And yet, unlike the unnecessary fear that arose from the 2014 Ebola epidemic, in the case of the novel coronavirus, all across the country people were insisting that the crisis was not real, that it was either exaggerated or, worse, fabricated as part of an elaborate conspiracy. Chief among those who believed that COVID-19 was an exaggerated, perhaps even fake, threat was none other than the president of the United States himself, Donald Trump. At one point, Trump accused Democrats of politicizing the virus, even calling it “their new hoax.”11 All the while, important guidelines around social distancing and mask-wearing were not being followed by large parts of the population, states such as Florida that should have been

on lockdown continued to keep everything open, and even schools opened in the midst of this out-of-control spread of the virus. At the same time, the president and his supporters championed unproven treatments, such as hydroxychloroquine.

These two examples—Ebola and COVID-19—represent two different forms of science denial that we will address in this book. On the one hand, in the case of Ebola, we saw skewed risk perception that caused people to become irrationally afraid of something that was not a major threat. On the other hand, in the case of COVID-19, we see a complex meeting place of group identities and conspiratorial thinking that resulted in a downplaying of a real threat. Both of these forms of science denial drive scientists, healthcare experts, and public health officials nuts and, in some cases, may put people at real risk. Time after time, we make decisions about the health of ourselves and our families based on emotion rather than on analysis of the scientific data. The government uses taxpayer money to mount hugely expensive studies to prove that the science is correct, but people come up with more and more reasons to insist that the research is incomplete, biased, or simply wrong. Opposing camps accuse each other of deliberately plotting to harm the American public, of being bought off by special interests, and of stupidity. The data may be clear about who is right and who is wrong, but people make decisions that ignore or deny the evidence. This book is an attempt to elucidate why we do this and what we can do to make better decisions about our health and the health of our loved ones.

Why Do We Ignore or Deny Scientific Evidence?

It turns out that there are many reasons for refusing to acknowledge scientific evidence when making health decisions, but stupidity is not one of them. Very smart people take positions that are not remotely based on evidence. There is a direct relationship, for example, between intelligence and refusing to vaccinate a child: this unfortunate behavior is championed mainly by very well-educated and affluent people.12 What then causes smart people to make decisions and adopt positions that have no factual basis? That is the question with which this book wrestles.

The idea for this book took shape as Sara became increasingly involved in the world of public health. She was particularly mystified by the “anti-vaxxers,” people who promulgate the notion that immunizations are harmful, causing, among other things, autism. Nothing could be further from the truth. Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine, having eliminated from our lives deadly diseases such as smallpox, measles, polio, and diphtheria. It is based on elegant scientific principles, has a remarkable safety record, and absolutely does not cause autism. How could anyone, Sara wondered, refuse to vaccinate a child?

At the same time Jack, who trained as a psychiatrist and worked as a scientist most of his career, was increasingly interested in the reasons people own guns. He thought at first it was for hunting and decided that just because it was a hobby that neither he nor any of his New York City friends pursued, it would be wrong to advocate that all the people who enjoy shooting animals in the woods be prevented from doing so. But a look at the data showed that a relatively small number of Americans are hunters and that most gun owners have weapons for “protection.” Yet studies show over and over again that a gun in the house is far more likely to be used to injure or kill someone who lives there than to kill an intruder. Gun availability is clearly linked to elevated risk for both homicide and suicide.13 Statistically speaking, the risks of having a gun at home are far greater than any possible benefits. Consider the tragic case of 26-year-old St. Louis resident Becca Campbell, who bought a gun reportedly to protect herself and her two daughters. Instead of protecting herself and her family from risks such as the Ferguson riots, she wound up accidentally shooting and killing herself with it.14 The first edition of this book focused on these and other cases of science denial came out in 2016. Months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States and a whole new era of science denial began. Denialism and conspiracy theories multiplied. The truth became harder and harder to discern. Our trust in scientific agencies began to erode even further. When COVID-19 emerged and, along with that, more conspiratorial thinking and ever more rampant science denial, we knew an update to this book was needed. At the end of this introduction, we will detail exactly what updates we have made.

In many cases scientific evidence strongly suggests a position— such as vaccinate your child and don’t keep a gun at home— that many of us choose to ignore or deny. We make a distinction between “ignore” and “deny,” the former indicating that a person does not know the scientific evidence and the latter that they do but actively disagree with it. We quickly generated a list of several other health and healthcare beliefs that fly directly in the face of scientific evidence and that are supported by at least a substantial minority of people:

• Vaccination is harmful.

• Guns in the house will protect residents from armed intruders.

• Foods containing genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are dangerous to human health.

• The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is not the cause of AIDS.

• Nuclear power is more dangerous than power derived from burning fossil fuels.

• Antibiotics are effective in treating viral infections.

• Unpasteurized milk is safe and contains beneficial nutrients that are destroyed by the pasteurization process.

• Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT, sometimes referred to as shock treatment) causes brain damage and is ineffective.

• Climate change is not real and is not caused by humans.

• COVID-19 is a hoax and a conspiracy, and mask-wearing does not protect against the virus.

• Tap water in most communities is loaded with toxic substances and unsafe to drink.

Throughout this book we present evidence that none of these positions is correct. But our aim is not to exhaustively analyze scientific data and studies. Many other sources review in rigorous detail the evidence that counters each of these nine beliefs. Rather, our task is to try to understand why reasonably intelligent and well-meaning people believe them.

Many of the thought processes that allow us to be human, to have empathy, to function in society, and to survive as a species from an evolutionary standpoint can lead us astray when applied to what

scientists refer to as scientific reasoning. Why? For starters, scientific reasoning is difficult for many people to accept because it precludes the ability to make positive statements with certainty. Scientific reasoning, rather, works by setting up hypotheses to be knocked down, makes great demands before causality can be demonstrated, and involves populations instead of individuals. In other words, in science we can never be 100% sure. We can only be very close to totally sure. This runs counter to the ways we humans are accustomed to thinking. Moreover, science works through a series of negations and disproving, while we are wired to resist changing our minds too easily. As a result, a multitude of completely healthy and normal psychological processes can conspire to make us prone to errors in scientific and medical thinking, leading to decisions that adversely affect our health.

These poor health decisions often involve adopting risky behaviors, including refusal to be vaccinated, consumption of unhealthy food, cigarette smoking, failure to adhere to a medication regimen, and failure to practice safe sex. We believe that these risk-taking behaviors stem in large part from complex psychological factors that often have known biological underpinnings. In this book we explore the psychology and neurobiology of poor health decisions and irrational health beliefs, arguing that in many cases the psychological impulses under discussion are adaptive (meaning they evolved to keep us safe and healthy) but are often applied in a maladaptive way. We also argue that without proper knowledge of the psychological and biological underpinnings of irrational health decisions and beliefs, we as a society cannot design any strategy that will alleviate the problem. We therefore conclude by offering our own method of combating poor health decision-making, a method that takes into account psychology and neurobiology and that offers guidance on how to encourage people to adopt a more scientific viewpoint without discounting or trying to eliminate their valuable emotional responses.

We will assert many times that the problem is not simply lack of information, although that can be a factor. Irrational behavior occurs even when we know and understand all the facts. Given what we now understand about brain function, it is probably not even appropriate to label science denial as, strictly speaking, “irrational.” Rather, it is for the most part a product of the way our minds work. This means

that simple education is not going to be sufficient to reverse science denial. Certainly, angry harangues at the “stupidity” of science denialists will only reify these attitudes. Take, for example, an article in The Atlantic that discussed affluent Los Angeles parents who refuse to have their children vaccinated, concluding, “Wealth enables these people to hire fringe pediatricians who will coddle their irrational beliefs. But it doesn’t entitle them to threaten an entire city’s children with terrifying, 19th-century diseases for no reason.”15 This stance is unhelpful because it attempts to shame people into changing their beliefs and behaviors, a strategy that rarely works when it comes to health and medicine. As Canadian scientists Chantal Pouliot and Julie Godbout point out in their excellent article on public science education, when scientists think about communicating with nonscientists, they generally operate from the “knowledge deficit” model, the idea that nonscientists simply lack the facts. Evidence shows, these authors argue instead, that nonscientists are in fact capable of understanding “both the complexity of research and the uncertainties accompanying many technological and scientific developments.”16 Pouliot and Godbout call for educating scientists about social scientists’ research findings that show the public is indeed capable of grasping scientific concepts.

Six of the chapters of this book examine single key drivers of science denial. Two new chapters apply these drivers to new science denial phenomena that have arisen since 2016: the government’s assault on science and misinformation and science denial specifically around COVID-19 and other health crises. All of the chapters rest on a combination of psychological, behavioral, sociological, political, and neurobiological components. We do not insist that these are the only reasons for science denial, but through our own work and research we have come to believe that they are among the most important and the most prominent.

Just Because You’re Paranoid Doesn’t Mean People Aren’t Conspiring Against You

In chapter 1, “Conspiracy Theories,” we address the complicated topic of conspiracy theories. Complicated because a conspiracy theory is not prima facie wrong, and indeed there have been many conspiracies

that we would have been better off uncovering when they first occurred. Yet one of the hallmarks of false scientific beliefs is the claim by their adherents that they are the victims of profiteering, deceit, and cover-ups by conglomerates variously composed of large corporations, government regulatory agencies, the media, and professional medical societies. The trick is to figure out if the false ones can be readily separated from those in which there may be some truth.

Only by carefully analyzing a number of such conspiracy theories and their adherents does it become possible to offer some guidelines as to which are most obviously incorrect. More important for our purposes, we explore the psychology of conspiracy theory adherence. What do people get out of believing in false conspiracy theories? How does membership in a group of like-minded conspiracy theorists develop, and why is it so hard to persuade people that they are wrong? As is the case with every reason we give in this book for adherence to false scientific ideas, belittling people who come to believe in false conspiracy theories as ignorant or mean-spirited is perhaps the surest route to reinforcing an anti-science position.

Charismatic Leaders

Perhaps the biggest and most formidable opponents to rational understanding and acceptance of scientific evidence in the health field are what are known as charismatic leaders, our second factor in promoting science denial. In chapter 2, “Charismatic Leaders,” we give several profiles of leaders of anti-science movements and try to locate common denominators among them. We stress that most people who hold incorrect ideas about health and deny scientific evidence are well-meaning individuals who believe that they are doing the right thing for themselves and their families. We also stress that the very same mental mechanisms that we use to generate incorrect ideas about scientific issues often have an evolutionary basis, can be helpful and healthy in many circumstances, and may even make us empathic individuals.

When we deal with charismatic figures, however, we are often dealing with people for whom it is difficult to generate kind words. Although they may be true believers, most of them are people who should know better, who often distort the truth, and who may

masquerade as selfless but in fact gain considerable personal benefit from promulgating false ideas. And, most important, what they do harms people.

There is a fascinating, albeit at times a bit frightening, psychology behind the appeal of these charismatic leaders that may help us be more successful in neutralizing their hold over others. Although many of them have impressive-sounding academic credentials, the factors that can make them seem believable may be as trivial as having a deep voice.17 Chapter 2 marks the end of a two-chapter focus on the psychology of groups and how it fosters anti-science beliefs.

If I Thought It Once, It Must Be True

Everyone looks for patterns in the environment. Once we find them and if they seem to explain things, we become more and more convinced we need them. The ancients who thought the sun revolved around the earth were not stupid, nor were they entirely ruled by religious dogma that humans must be at the center of the earth. In fact, if you look up in the sky, that is at first what seems to be happening. After years of observation and calculation, the Greek astronomer Ptolemy devised a complicated mathematical system to explain the rotation of stars around the earth. It is not a simple explanation but rather the work of a brilliant mind using all of the tools available to him. Of course, it happens to be wrong. But once it was written down and taught to other astronomers, it became hard to give up. Rather, as new observations came in that may have challenged the “geocentric” model, astronomers were apt to do everything possible to fit them into the “earth as the center of the universe” idea. That is, they saw what they believed.

It took another set of geniuses— Copernicus, Kepler, and Galileo— and new inventions like the telescope to finally dislodge the Ptolemaic model.

Once any such belief system is in place, it becomes the beneficiary of what is known as the confirmation bias. Paul Slovic captured the essence of confirmation bias, the subject of chapter 3, very well:

It would be comforting to believe that polarized positions would respond to informational and educational programs. Unfortunately, psychological research demonstrates that people’s beliefs change

slowly and are extraordinarily persistent in the face of contrary evidence. Once formed, initial impressions tend to structure the way that subsequent evidence is interpreted. New evidence appears reliable and informative if it is consistent with one’s initial beliefs; contrary evidence is dismissed as unreliable, erroneous or unrepresentative.18

Does this sound familiar? We can probably all think of examples in our lives in which we saw things the way we believed they should be rather than as they really were. For many years, for example, Jack believed that antidepressant medications were superior to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in the treatment of an anxiety condition called panic disorder. That is what his professors insisted was true, and it was part of being an obedient student to believe them. When studies were published that showed that CBT worked, he searched hard for flaws in the experimental methods or interpretation of those studies to convince himself that the new findings were not sufficient to dislodge his belief in medication’s superiority. Finally, he challenged a CBT expert, David Barlow, now of Boston University, to do a study comparing the two forms of treatment and, to his surprise, CBT worked better than medication.19

Fortunately, Jack let the data have its way and changed his mind, but until that point he worked hard to confirm his prior beliefs. This happens all the time in science and is the source of some very passionate scientific debates and conflicts in every field. It also turns out that neuroscientists, using sophisticated brain imaging techniques, have been able to show the ways in which different parts of the brain respond to challenges to fixed ideas with either bias or openmindedness. The challenge for those of us who favor adherence to scientific evidence is to support the latter. In this effort we are too often opposed by anti-science charismatic leaders.

If A Came Before B, Then A Caused B

Uncertainty, as we explain in chapter 4, “Causality and Filling the Ignorance Gap,” is uncomfortable and even frightening to many people. It is a natural tendency to want to know why things are as they are, and this often entails figuring out what caused what. Once again, this tendency is almost certainly an evolutionarily conserved, protective feature—when you smell smoke in your cave, you assume

there is a fire causing it and run; you do not first consider alternative explanations, or you might not survive. We are forced to assign causal significance to things we observe every day. If you hear the crash of a broken glass and see your dog running out of the room, you reach the conclusion immediately that your dog has knocked a glass off a tabletop. Of course, it is possible that something else knocked the glass off and frightened the dog into running, what epidemiologists might call reverse causation, but that would be an incorrect conclusion most of the time. Without the propensity to assign causality, we would once again get bogged down in all kinds of useless considerations and lose our ability to act.

In many ways, however, the causality assumption will fail us when we are considering more complicated systems and issues. This is not a “chicken and egg” problem; that is a philosophical and linguistic conundrum that has no scientific significance. We know that chickens hatch from eggs and also lay eggs so that neither the chicken nor egg itself actually came first but rather evolutionarily more primitive life forms preceded both. By causality we are talking here instead about the way in which the scientific method permits us to conclude that something is the cause of something else. If you look again at our list of examples of anti-science views, you can see that a number of them are the result of disputes over causality. There is no question, for example, that HIV causes AIDS; that fluoride in drinking water prevents tooth decay; and that burning oil, gas, and coal causes global warming, and we are similarly certain that vaccines do not cause autism. Yet there are individuals and groups that dispute these clear scientific facts about causality.

If one has a child with autism, the temptation to find a cause for it is perfectly understandable. The uncertainty of why a child has autism is undoubtedly part of the heartbreak faced by parents. Many initially blame themselves. Perhaps the mom should not have eaten so much fried food during pregnancy. Or maybe it is because the dad has a bad gene or was too old to father a child. Guilt sets in, adding to the anguish of having a child who will struggle throughout their life to fit in. Such parents in distress become highly prone to leap to a causality conclusion if one becomes available, especially if it allows us to be angry at someone else instead of ourselves. Once an idea like vaccines cause autism is circulated and supported by advocacy groups

it becomes very hard for scientists to dislodge it by citing data from all the studies showing that the conclusion is wrong. So the tendency to want or need to find causal links will often lead us to incorrect or even dangerous scientific conclusions.

It’s Complicated

What is it about Ebola that makes it an epidemic in some West African countries like Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone but a very small threat in America? Why, on the other hand, is the flu virus a major threat to the health of Americans, responsible for thousands of deaths in the last 30 years? Why is the novel coronavirus a serious threat to adults everywhere, although perhaps not as threatening for children? The answer lies in the biology of these viruses. The Ebola virus, like HIV, influenza, and coronaviruses, are RNA viruses that are converted to DNA once inside a human cell, which allows them to insert themselves into the host cells’ genome, to replicate and then move on to infect more host cells. The Ebola viruses’ main reservoir is the fruit bat, and bats are also believed by many experts to have been the reservoir for the novel coronavirus that triggered the COVID-19 pandemic. Ebola is spread by contact with bodily fluids of an infected individual20; it is not, like coronaviruses, flu, or chicken pox, an airborne virus. This is a very important point: one can catch the flu from someone merely by sitting nearby and inhaling the air into which they cough or sneeze. A person can infect another person with the flu or COVID-19 from as far as six feet away. Ebola does not spread that way. One has to handle the blood, urine, feces, or vomit of someone with Ebola to get it. Hence, the chance of spreading flu is much greater than the chance of spreading Ebola. The people most at risk for contracting Ebola are healthcare workers and family members who care for infected people. The incubation period for the Ebola virus is between 2 and 21 days, and an individual is not contagious until they become symptomatic. This is also different from the flu or coronavirus, which can be spread before a person becomes symptomatic. Thus, we know when a person with Ebola is contagious; we may not if the person has the flu or COVID-19. Did you get all of that? Those are the facts. Do you now understand the difference between RNA and DNA viruses or the mechanisms by

which viruses infect cells and replicate, or even exactly what replication is? Is the difference between bodily fluids and airborne infection completely clear, and do you understand what we mean by incubation period? Do you know what scientists and medical professions mean when they say a virus spreads via “droplets?” Don’t be surprised if you don’t. These terms are second nature to doctors and most scientists, but other educated people probably don’t think about them very much. Just as most doctors do not understand what costbased accounting entails, most accountants are not expert virologists. In other words, the details of what Ebola is and does are complicated. Despite the common refrain that we are in a new era of information brought on by the internet, our brains are still not programmed to welcome technical and complex descriptions. You may have read the paragraph before this one quickly and committed to memory only words like HIV, bats, infect, symptomatic, and spread. Thus, if you are like most people you can read that paragraph and walk away only thinking, incorrectly, that “Ebola is infectious and you can get it from another person sitting next to you on the train.”

Chapter 5, “Avoidance of Complexity,” deals with another reason people succumb to unscientific notions— the discomfort we all have with complexity. It isn’t that we are incapable of learning the facts, but rather we are reluctant to put in the time and effort to do so. This may especially be the case when science and math are involved because many people believe, often incorrectly, that they are incapable of understanding those disciplines except in their most basic aspects. As we explain when we discuss some aspects of brain function, our minds gravitate naturally to clear and simple explanations of things, especially when they are laced with emotional rhetoric. We are actually afraid of complexity. Our natural instinct is to try to get our arms around an issue quickly, not to “obsess” or get caught in the weeds about it. As we indicate throughout this book, this retreat from complexity is similar to the other reasons for science denial in that it is in many ways a useful and adaptive stance. We would be paralyzed if we insisted on understanding the technical details of everything in our lives. One need have very little idea about how a car engine works to get in and drive; music can be enjoyed without fully understanding the relationships among major and minor keys and the harmonics of stringed instruments; a garden can be planted

without an ability to write down all the chemical steps involved in photosynthesis and plant oxygen exchange. Furthermore, when we have to make urgent decisions, it is often best not to dwell on the details. Emergencies are best handled by people who can act, not deliberate.

But when making health decisions, the inability to tackle scientific details can leave us prone to accepting craftily packaged inaccuracies and slogans. Scientists, doctors, and public health experts are often not helpful in this regard because they frequently refuse to explain things clearly and interestingly. Scientists seem to waver between overly complicated explanations that only they can fathom and overly simplistic explanations that feel patronizing and convey minimal useful information. Experts are also prone to adhering to simplistic and incorrect ideas when the truth is complicated.

In fact, as we argue in chapter 5, scientists need to work much harder on figuring out the best ways to communicate facts to nonscientists. This must begin by changing the way we teach science to children, from one of pure memorization to hands-on projects with an appreciation of the way science actually works. By focusing on the scientific method, we can begin to educate people about how to accept complexity and uncertainty, how to be skeptical, and how to ask the right questions.

Who’s Afraid of the Shower?

Chapter 6, “Risk Perception and Probability,” focuses on something that is highlighted by the puzzle described in the opening passages of this book about Ebola virus infection: an inability to appreciate true risk. The chance of getting Ebola virus in America is very small, but the attention it got and the fear it generated in this country have been enormous. On the one hand, then, we know the true risk of contracting Ebola, somewhere around 1 in several million. On the other hand, we perceive the risk as something approaching enormous. Thanks largely to the work of Daniel Kahneman and other behavioral economists, we now have a substantial amount of empirical evidence about how people form and hang on to their ideas about risk— and, for the most part, they do it very differently from how statisticians do it. A public health statistician might tell us that the

risk of dying from a fall is 1 in 152 whereas the risk of dying in an airplane crash is 1 in 8,321.21 That is a relative risk of 0.002, meaning that the risk of dying from a fall is 2,000 times greater than from perishing in an airplane disaster. But psychologists and behavioral economists tell us that our understanding of what these numbers mean is not straightforward. Sure, everyone can understand from this that a person is more likely to be killed slipping in the shower or falling down the stairs than flying in an airplane. But numbers like 152 and 8,321 do not have much significance for us other than to signify that one is bigger than the other.

A lot more goes into our perception of risk than the numbers that describe the actual threat. As we mentioned earlier, the human mind is naturally biased in favor of overestimating small risks and underestimating large risks. The former is the reason we buy lottery tickets and buy insurance. The latter is the reason we neglect getting a flu shot or fastening our seat belt. The decision to keep a gun in the house is another example. As Daniel Kahneman once wrote to us, the gun safety issue is straightforward. When you think of the safety of your home, you assume an attack. Conditional on being an attack, the gun makes you safe. No one multiplies that conditional probability by the very low probability of an attack, to compare that with the probability of an accident, which is clearly low.22

Refusing to vaccinate a child is a classic example of this: those who fear immunization exaggerate the very, very small risk of an adverse side effect and underestimate the devastation that occurs during a measles outbreak or just how deadly whooping cough (pertussis) can be. We also get fooled by randomness— believing that something that happened by mere chance is actually a real effect.23 Thus, if a child is vaccinated one day and gets a severe viral illness three days later we are prone to think the vaccine caused the illness, even though the two events probably happened in close proximity purely by chance. Everyone makes this mistake.

Convincing people about the relative risks of things without making them experts in biostatistics is a difficult task. And here, a little learning can be a dangerous thing. Jack recently asked a group of very educated and successful people whether the fact that there is a 1 in 1,000 chance of falling in the shower made them feel reassured

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RELATIONS OF TREES TO WATER.

There is a spot which I used to visit some years ago, that seemed to me one of the most enchanting of natural scenes. It was a level plain of about ten acres, surrounded by a narrow stream that was fed by a steep ridge forming a sort of amphitheatre round more than half its circumference. The ridge was a declivity of near a hundred feet in height, and so steep that you could climb it only by taking hold of the trees and bushes that covered it. The whole surface consisted of a thin stratum of soil deposited upon a slaty rock; but the growth of trees upon this slope was beautiful and immense, and the water that was constantly trickling from a thousand fountains kept the ground all the year green with mosses and ferns, and gay with many varieties of flowers. The soil was so rich in the meadow enclosed by this ridge, and annually fertilized by the débris washed from the hills, that the proprietor every summer filled his barns with hay, which was obtained from it without any cultivation.

I revisited this spot a few years since, after a long period of absence. A new owner, “a man of progress and enterprise,” had felled the trees that grew so beautifully on the steep sides of this elevation, and valley and hill have become a dreary and unprofitable waste. The thin soil that sustained the forest, no longer protected by the trees and their undergrowth, has been washed down into the valley, leaving nothing but a bald, rocky surface, whose hideousness is scarcely relieved by a few straggling vines. The valley is also ruined; for the inundations to which it is subject after any copious rain destroy every crop that is planted upon it, and render it impracticable for tillage. It is covered with sand heaps; the little stream that glided round it, fringed with azaleas and wild roses, has disappeared, and the land is reduced to a barren pasture.

The general practice of the pioneers of civilization on this continent was to cut down the wood chiefly from the uplands and the lower slopes of the hills and mountains. They cleared those tracts which were most valuable for immediate use and cultivation. Necessity led them to pursue the very course required by the laws of nature for improving the soil and climate. The first clearings were made chiefly for purposes of agriculture; and as every farm was surrounded by a rampart of woods, it was sheltered from the force of the winds and pleasantly open to the sun. But when men began to fell the woods to supply the demands of towns and cities for fuel and lumber, these clearings were gradually deprived of their shelter, by levelling the surrounding forest and opening the country to the winds from every quarter. But the clearing of the wood from the plains, while it has rendered the climate more unstable, has not been the cause of inundations or the diminution of streams. This evil has been produced by clearing the mountains and lesser elevations having steep or rocky sides; and if this destructive work is not checked by legislation or by the wisdom of the people, plains and valleys now green and fertile will become profitless for tillage or pasture, and the advantages we shall have sacrificed will be irretrievable in the lifetime of a single generation. The same indiscriminate felling of woods has rendered many a once fertile region in Europe barren and uninhabitable, equally among the cold mountains of Norway and the sunny plains of Brittany.

Our climate suffers more than formerly from summer droughts. Many ancient streams have entirely disappeared, and a still greater number are dry in summer. Boussingault mentions a fact that clearly illustrates the condition to which we may be exposed in thousands of locations on this continent. In the island of Ascension there was a beautiful spring, situated at the foot of a mountain which was covered with wood. By degrees the spring became less copious, and at length failed. While its waters were annually diminishing in bulk, the mountain had been gradually cleared of its forest. The disappearance of the spring was attributed to the clearing. The mountain was again planted, and as the new growth of wood increased, the spring reappeared, and finally attained its original fulness. More to be dreaded than drought, and produced by the same cause,—the clearing of steep declivities of their wood,—are the excessive inundations to which all parts of the country are subject.

If it were in the power of man to dispose his woods and tillage in the most advantageous manner, he might not only produce an important amelioration of the general climate, but he might diminish the frequency and severity both of droughts and inundations, and preserve the general fulness of streams. If every man were to pursue that course which would protect his own grounds from these evils, it would be sufficient to bring about this beneficent result. If each owner of land would keep all his hills and declivities, and all slopes that contain only a thin deposit of soil or a quarry, covered with forest, he would lessen his local inundations from vernal thaws and summer rains. Such a covering of wood tends to equalize the moisture that is distributed over the land, causing it, when showered upon the hills, to be retained by the mechanical action of the trees and their undergrowth of shrubs and herbaceous plants, and by the spongy surface of the soil underneath them, made porous by mosses, decayed leaves, and other débris, so that the plains and valleys have a moderate oozing supply of moisture for a long time after every shower. Without this covering, the water when precipitated upon the slopes, would immediately rush down over an unprotected surface in torrents upon the space below.

Every one has witnessed the effects of clearing the woods and other vegetation from moderate declivities in his own neighborhood. He has observed how rapidly a valley is inundated by heavy showers, if the rising grounds that form its basin are bare of trees and planted with the farmer’s crops. Even grass alone serves to check the rapidity with which the water finds its way to the bottom of the slope. Let it be covered with bushes and vines, and the water flows with a speed still more diminished. Let this shrubbery grow into a forest, and the valley would never be inundated except by a long-continued and flooding rain. Woods and their undergrowth are indeed the only barriers against frequent and sudden inundations, and the only means in the economy of nature for preserving an equal fulness of streams during all seasons of the year.

At first thought, it may seem strange that the clearing of forests should be equally the cause both of drought and inundations; but these apparently incompatible facts are easily explained by considering the different effects produced by woods standing in different situations. An excess of moisture in the valleys comes from

the drainage of the hills, and the same conditions that will cause them to be dried up at certain times will cause them to be flooded at others. Nature’s design seems to be to preserve a constant moderate fulness of streams and standing water. This purpose she accomplishes by clothing the general surface of the country with wood. When man disturbs this arrangement, he may produce evil consequences which he had never anticipated. We are not, however, to conclude that we may not improve the soil and climate by changing the original condition of this wooded surface. The clearing of the forest may be reduced to a science whose laws are as sure and unexceptionable as those of mechanics and hydraulics. Though it has not gained much attention from the public mind, it is well understood by the learned who have made this branch of vegetable meteorology their special study. Our danger lies in neglecting to apply these laws to operations in the forest, and in preferring to obtain certain immediate commercial advantages, at the risk of inflicting evils of incalculable extent upon a coming generation.

THE LINDEN-TREE.

The Lime or Linden-tree is generally known among our countrymen as the Bass, and was not, before the present century, employed as a wayside tree. The old standards seen in our ancient villages are European Limes. During the past thirty years the American tree has been very generally planted by roadsides, in avenues and pleasure-grounds, and few trees are more highly valued in these situations. But the American has less beauty than the European tree, which is clothed with softer foliage, has a smaller leaf, and a neater and more elegant spray. Our native Lime bears larger and more conspicuous flowers, in heavier clusters, but of inferior sweetness. Both species are remarkable for their size and longevity. The Lime in Great Britain is a tree of first magnitude, frequently rising to the height of eighty or ninety feet, with a trunk of proportional diameter. The American species is not inferior to it in size or altitude. Some of the largest trees in Western New York are Limes.

The Lime has in all ages been celebrated for the fragrance of its flowers and the excellence of the honey made from them. The famous Mount Hybla was covered with Lime-trees. The aroma from its flowers is like that of mignonette; it perfumes the whole atmosphere, though never disagreeable from excess, and is perceptible to the inhabitants of all the beehives within the circuit of a mile. The Lime is also remarkable for a general beauty of proportion, a bright verdure contrasting finely with the dark-colored branches, and an outline regular and symmetrical without formality. When covered with leaves, it bears some resemblance in outward form to the maple, but surpasses it, when leafless, in the beauty of its ramification. The leaves are roundish heart-shaped, of a clear and lively green in summer, but acquiring a spotted and rusty look in autumn, and

adding nothing to the splendors of that season. In the spring, however, no tree of our forest displays a more beautiful verdure before it acquires the uniform dark green of the summer woods.

The branches of the Lime have a very dark-colored surface, distinguishing it from other trees that agree with it in size and general appearance. The bark of the maple, for example, is light and of an ashen-gray tint, and that of the poplars a sort of greenish claycolor. This dark hue renders the spray of the Lime very conspicuous, after a shower, and in spring, when all the leaves are of a light and brilliant green; but these incidental beauties are not very lasting. The branches, being alternate, are very minutely subdivided, and their extremities neatly drawn inwards, so that in a denuded state it is one of our finest winter ornaments. The spray of the beech is more airy, that of the elm more flowing, and that of the oak more curiously netted and interwoven; but the spray of the Lime is remarkable for its freedom from all defect.

George Barnard, who, being a painter, looks upon trees as they are more or less adapted to his own art, remarks:—

“When young, or indeed up to an age perhaps of sixty or seventy years, the Lime has a formal appearance, with little variation in its masses of foliage; but let some accident occur, such as the breaking down of a large branch, or the removal of a neighboring tree, it then presents a charming picture.”

One of the curiosities of the Lime-tree that deserves notice is a certain winged appendage to the seed, which is a round nut about the size of a pea. This is attached to a long stem, from the end of which, joined to it obliquely, descends a ribbon-like bract, causing it, when it falls, to spin round and travel a long distance upon the wind. If the tree stands on the borders of a pond, where the seeds fall upon the surface, this winged appendage performs the part of a sail, and causes the seeds to be wafted to different points of the opposite shore.

THE KALMIA.

The Kalmia, on account of its superficial resemblance to the green bay-tree, often called the American laurel, is more nearly allied to the heath. The name of Kalmia, which is more musical than many others of similar derivation, was given to this genus of evergreen shrubs by Linnæus, in honor of Peter Kalm, a distinguished botanist and one of his pupils. This is exclusively an American family of plants, containing only five species, three of which are natives of New England soil and two of them among our most common shrubs.

THE MOUNTAIN LAUREL.

Not one of our native shrubs is so generally admired as the Mountain Laurel; no other equals it in glowing and magnificent beauty. But the “patriots” who plunder the fields of its branches and flowers for gracing the festivities of the “glorious Fourth” will soon exterminate this noble plant from our land. There are persons who never behold a beautiful object, especially if it be a flower or a bird, without wishing to destroy it for some selfish, devout, or patriotic purpose. The Mountain Laurel is not so showy as the rhododendron, with its deeper crimson bloom; but nothing can exceed the minute beauty of its individual flowers, the neatness of their structure, and the delicacy of their shades as they pass from rose-color to white on different bushes in the same group. The flower is monopetalous, expanded to a cup with ten angles and scalloped edges. “At the circumference of the disk on the inside,” says Darwin, “are ten depressions or pits, accompanied with corresponding prominences on the outside. In these depressions the anthers are found lodged at the time when the flower expands. The stamens grow from the base of the corolla, and bend outwardly, so as to lodge the anthers in the cells of the corolla. From this confinement they liberate themselves, during the period of flowering, and strike against the sides of the stigma.” This curious internal arrangement of parts renders the flower very beautiful on close examination. The flowers are arranged in flat circular clusters at the terminations of the branches.

We seldom meet anything in the forest more attractive than the groups of Mountain Laurel, which often cover extensive slopes, generally appearing on the edge of a wood, and becoming more scarce as they extend into the interior or wander outwardly from the border. But if we meet with an opening in the wood where the soil is favorable,—some little sunny dell or declivity,—another still more beautiful group opens on the sight, sometimes occupying the whole space. The Mountain Laurel does not constitute the undergrowth of any family of trees, but avails itself of the protection of a wood where it can flourish without being overshadowed by it. In the groups on the outside of the wood, the flowers are usually of a fine rose-color,

fading as they are more shaded, until in the deep forest we find them, and the buds likewise, of a pure white. I am not acquainted with another plant that is so sensitive to the action of light upon the color of its flowers. The buds, except in the dark shade, before they expand, are of a deeper red than the flowers, and hardly less beautiful.

The Mountain Laurel delights in wet places, in springy lands on rocky declivities where there is an accumulation of soil, and in openings surrounded by woods, where the land is not a bog, but wet enough to abound in ferns. In such places the Kalmia, with its bright evergreen leaves, forms elegant masses of shrubbery, even when it is not in flower. Indeed, its foliage is hardly less conspicuous than its flowers. I believe the Kalmias are not susceptible of modification by the arts of the florist. Nature has endowed them with a perfection that cannot be improved.

THE LOW LAUREL, OR LAMBKILL.

The low Laurel, or small Kalmia, is plainly one of nature’s favorite productions; for, the wilder and ruder the situation, the more luxuriant is this plant and the more beautiful are its flowers. These are of a deep rose-color, arranged in crowded whorls around the extremities of the branches, with the recent shoot containing a tuft of newly formed leaves surmounting each cluster of flowers. This plant, though not celebrated in horticultural literature or song, is one of the most exquisite productions of nature. Many other shrubs which are more showy are not to be compared with this in the delicate structure of its flowers and in the beauty of their arrangement and colors. Of this species the most beautiful individuals are found on the outer edge of their groups.

There has been much speculation about the supposed poisonous qualities of this plant and its allied species. Nuttall thought its flowers the source of the deleterious honey discovered in the nests of certain wild bees. There is also a general belief that its leaves are poisonous to cattle and flocks. But all positive evidence is wanting to support any of these notions. The idea associated with the name of this species is a vulgar error arising from a corruption of the generic name, from which Lambkill may be thus derived,—Kalmia, Kallamia, Killamia, Killam, Lambkill. There is no other way of explaining the origin of its common English name. I have never been able to discover an authentic account, and have never known an instance of the death of a sheep or a lamb from eating the leaves of this plant. It is an error having its origin in a false etymology; and half the notions that prevail in the world with regard to the medical virtues and other properties of plants have a similar foundation.

It is stated in an English manual of Medical Botany that the brown powder that adheres to the petioles of the different species of Kalmia, Andromeda, and Rhododendron is used by the North American Indians as snuff.

KALMIA.

MOTIONS OF TREES.

While Nature, in the forms of trees, in the color of their foliage and the gracefulness of their spray, has displayed a great variety of outline and tinting, and provided a constant entertainment for the sight, she has increased their attractions by endowing them with a different susceptibility to motion from the action of the winds. In their motions we perceive no less variety than in their forms. The different species differ like animals; some being graceful and easy, others stiff and awkward; some calm and intrepid, others nervous and easily agitated. Perhaps with stricter analogy we might compare them to human beings; for we find trees that represent the man of quiet and dignified deportment, also the man of excited manners and rapid gesticulations. Some trees, like the fir, having stiff branches and foliage, move awkwardly backward and forward in the wind, without any separate motions of their leaves. While we admire the symmetrical and stately forms of such trees, we are reminded of men who present a noble personal appearance, accompanied with ungainly manners.

Some trees, having stiff branches with flexible leaves, do not bend to a moderate breeze, but their foliage readily yields to the motion of the wind. This habit is observed in the oak and the ash, in all trees that have a pendulous foliage and upright or horizontal branches. The poplars possess this habit in a remarkable degree, and it is proverbial in the aspen. It is also conspicuous in the common peartree and in the small white birch. Other trees, like the American elm, wave their branches gracefully, with but little apparent motion of their leaves. We observe the same habit in the weeping willow, and indeed in all trees with a long and flexible spray. The wind produces by its action on these a general sweeping movement without any rustle. It is easy to observe, when walking in a grove, that the only

graceful motions come from trees with drooping branches, because these alone are long and slender.

The very rapid motion of the leaves of the aspen has given origin to some remarkable superstitions. The Highlanders of Scotland believe the wood of this tree to be that of which the holy cross was made, and that its leaves are consequently never allowed to rest. Impressed with the awfulness of the tragedy of the crucifixion, they are constantly indicating to the winds the terrors that agitate them. The small white birch displays considerable of the same motion of the leaves; but we take little notice of it, because they are softer and produce less of a rustling sound. The flickering lights and shadows observed when walking under these trees, on a bright noonday, have always been admired. All these habits awaken our interest in trees and other plants by assimilating them to animated things.

Much of the beauty of the silver poplar comes from its glittering lights, when it presents the green upper surface of its foliage, alternating rapidly with the white silvery surface beneath. This we may readily perceive even in cloudy weather, but in the bright sunshine the contrasts are very brilliant. In all trees, however, we observe this glittering beauty of motion in the sunshine. The under part of leaves being less glossy than the upper part, there is in the assemblage the same tremulous lustre that appears on the rippled surface of a lake by moonlight.

We observe occasionally other motions which I have not described, such as the uniform bending of the whole tree. In a strong current of wind, tall and slender trees especially attract our attention by bending over uniformly like a plume. This habit is often seen in the white birch, a tree that in its usual assemblages takes a plumelike form. When a whole grove of white birches is seen thus bending over in one direction from the action of a brisk wind, they seem like a procession of living forms. In a storm we watch with peculiar interest the bending forms of certain tall elms, such as we often see in clearings, with their heads bowed down almost to the ground by the force of the tempest. It is only the waves of the ocean and the tossing of its billows that can afford us so vivid an impression of the sublimity of a tempest as the violent swaying of a forest and the roaring of the winds among the lofty tree-tops.

The motions of an assemblage of trees cannot be observed except from a stand that permits us to look down upon the surface formed by their summits. We should then perceive that pines and firs, with all the stiffness of their branches, display a great deal of undulating motion. These undulations or wavy movements are particularly graceful in a grove of hemlocks, when they are densely assembled without being crowded. It is remarkable that one of the most graceful of trees belongs to a family which are distinguished by their stiffness and formality. The hemlock, unlike other firs and spruces, has a very flexible spray, with leaves also slightly movable, which are constantly sparkling when agitated by the wind. If we look down from an opposite point, considerably elevated, upon a grove of hemlocks when they are exposed to brisk currents of wind, they display a peculiar undulating movement of the branches and foliage, made more apparent by the glitter of their leaves.

The surface of any assemblage of trees when in motion bears a close resemblance to the waves of the sea. But hemlocks represent its undulations when greatly agitated, without any broken lines upon its surface. Other firs display in their motions harsher angles and a somewhat broken surface of the waves. We see the tops of these trees and their extreme branches awkwardly swaying backwards and forwards, and forming a surface like that of the sea when it is broken by tumultuous waves of a moderate height. The one suggests the idea of tumult and contention; the other, that of life and motion combined with serenity and peace.

THE TULIP-TREE.

The Tulip-tree is pronounced by Dr. Bigelow “one of the noblest trees, both in size and beauty, of the American forest.” It certainly displays the character of immensity,—a quality not necessarily allied with those features we most admire in landscape. It is not very unlike the Canada poplar, and is designated by the name of White Poplar in the Western States. The foliage of this tree has been greatly extolled, but it has the heaviness which is apparent in the foliage of the largeleaved poplars, without its tremulous habit. The leaves, somewhat palmate in their shape, are divided into four pointed lobes, the middle rib ending abruptly, as if the fifth lobe had been cut off. The flowers, which are beautiful, but not showy, are striped with green, yellow, and orange. They do not resemble tulips, however, so much as the flowers of the abutilon and althea.

This tree is known in New England rather as an ornamental tree than as a denizen of the forest. Its native habitats are nearly the same with those of the magnolia, belonging to an allied family. There is not much in the proportions of this tree to attract our admiration, except its size. But its leaves are glossy and of a fine dark green, its branches smooth, and its form symmetrical. It is a tree that agrees very well with dressed grounds, and its general appearance harmonizes with the insipidity of artificial landscape. It is wanting in the picturesque characters of the oak and the tupelo, and inferior in this respect to the common trees of our forest.

THE MAGNOLIA.

The Magnolia, though, excepting one species, a stranger to New England soil, demands some notice. Any one who has never seen the trees of this genus in their native soil can form no correct idea of them. I would not say, however, that they would fall short of his conceptions of their splendor. When I first beheld one of the large magnolias, though it answered to my previous ideas of its magnificence, I thought it a less beautiful tree than the Southern cypress, and less picturesque than the live-oak, the black walnut, and some other trees I saw there. The foliage of the Magnolia is very large and heavy, and so dark as to look gloomy. It is altogether too sombre a tree in the open landscape, and must add to the gloom of any wood which it occupies, without yielding to it any other striking character.

There are several species of Magnolia cultivated in pleasuregrounds, the selection being made from those bearing a profusion of flowers. The only one that grows wild in New England is of small stature, sometimes called the Beaver-tree. It inhabits a swamp near Gloucester, about twenty miles from Boston. This place is its northern boundary. The flowers are of a dull white, without any beauty, but possessed of a very agreeable fragrance, causing them to be in great demand. The Magnolia wood is annually stripped both of flowers and branches, and the trees will probably be extirpated before many years by this sort of vandalism.

THE LOCUST.

The waysides in the Middle States do not contain a more beautiful tree than the Locust, with its profusion of pinnate leaves and racemes of flowers that fill the air with the most agreeable odors. In New England the Locust is subject to the ravages of so many different insects that it is commonly stinted in its growth, its branches withered and broken, and its symmetry destroyed. But the deformities produced by the decay of some of its important limbs cannot efface the charm of its fine pensile foliage. In winter it seems devoid of all those proportions we admire in other trees. It rears its tall form, withered, shapeless, and deprived of many valuable parts, without proportional breadth, and wanting in any definite character of outline. Through all the early weeks of spring we might still suppose it would never recover its beauty. But May hangs on those withered boughs a green drapery that hides all their deformity; she infuses into their foliage a perfection of verdure that no other tree can rival, and a beauty in the forms of its leaves that renders it one of the chief ornaments of the groves and waysides. June weaves into this green leafage pendent clusters of flowers of mingled brown and white, filling the air with fragrance, and enticing the bee with odors as sweet as from groves of citron and myrtle.

The finely cut and delicate foliage of the Locust and its jewelled white flowers, hanging gracefully among its dark green leaves, yield it a peculiar style of beauty, and remind us of some of the finer vegetation of the tropics. The leaflets, varying in number from nine to twenty-five on a common stem, have a singular habit of folding over each other in wet and dull weather and in the night, thus displaying a sensitiveness that is remarkable in all the acacia family. The Locust is not highly prized by landscape gardeners, who cannot reconcile its defects to their serpentine walks and their velvety lawns.

But I am not sure that the accidental deformities of the Locust may not contribute to its picturesque attractions, when, for example, from its furrowed and knotted trunk a few imperfect limbs project, and suspend over our heads a little canopy of the finest verdure.

Phillips says of the Locust, that, when planted in shrubberies, it becomes the favorite resort of the nightingale, to avail itself of the protection afforded by its thorns. There are many other small birds that seek the protection of thorny bushes for their nests. On the borders of woods, a barberry or hawthorn bush is more frequently selected by the catbird and the yellow-throat than any other shrub. I have observed that the indigo-bird shows a remarkable attachment to the Locust, attracted, perhaps, by some favorite insect that lives upon it. The only nests of this bird I have ever discovered were in the branches of the Locust. It is worthy of notice, that, notwithstanding its rapid and thrifty growth in favorable situations, this tree never occupies exclusively any large tracts of country. It is found only in small groups, scattered chiefly on the outside of woods containing different species. The foliage of the Locust, like that of other leguminous plants, is very fertilizing to the soil, causing the grassy turf that is shaded by this tree to be always green and luxuriant.

THE HONEY LOCUST.

The Honey Locust is not an uncommon tree in the enclosures of suburban dwellings, and by the waysides in many parts of the country. Some of them have attained a great height, overtopping all our shade-trees except the elm and the oak. This tree in June bears flowers without any beauty, hanging from the branches in small greenish aments. The outer bark peels from the trunk, like that of the shellbark hickory. The thorns investing the trunk as well as the boughs are very singular, consisting of one long spine with two and sometimes more shorter ones projecting out of it, like two little branches, near its base. Three is the prevailing number of these compound thorns. Hence the name of Three-Thorned Acacia applied to the Honey Locust.

This tree bears some resemblance to the common Locust; but its leaflets are smaller, and of a lighter green. It is not liable, however, to the attacks of insects, and is seen, therefore, in all its normal and beautiful proportions. It displays much of the elegance of the tropical acacias in the minute division and symmetry of its compound leaves. These are of a light and brilliant green, and lie flat upon the branches, giving them a fan-like appearance, such as we observe in the hemlock. Though its principal branches are given out at an acute angle, many of them are horizontal, extending outwards with frequent contortions. The Honey Locust derives its name from the sweetness of the pulp that envelops the seeds contained in their large flat pods. This tree is not an uncommon hedge plant in Massachusetts, but it is not found in the New England forest. Its native region is the wide valley between the Alleghanies and the Mississippi River.

RELATIONS OF TREES TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

I have not much faith in the science of ignorant men; for the foundations of all knowledge are laid in books; and those only who have read and studied much can possess any considerable store of wisdom. But there are philosophers among laboring swains, whose quaint observations and solutions of nature’s problems are sometimes worthy of record. With these men of untutored genius I have had considerable intercourse, and hence I oftener quote them than the learned and distinguished, whom I have rarely met. The ignorant, from want of knowledge, are always theorists; but genius affords its possessor, how small soever his acquisitions, some glimpses of truth which may be entirely hidden from the mere pedant in science. My philosophic friend, a man of genius born to the plough, entertained a theory in regard to the atmosphere, which, though not strictly philosophical, is so ingenious and suggestive that I have thought an account of it a good introduction to this essay.

My friend, when explaining his views, alluded to the well-known fact that plants growing in an aquarium keep the water supplied with atmospheric air—not with simple oxygen, but with oxygen chemically combined with nitrogen—by some vital process that takes place in the leaves of plants. As the lungs of animals decompose the air which they inspire, and breathe out carbonic-acid gas, plants in their turn decompose this deleterious gas, and breathe out pure atmospheric air. His theory is that the atmosphere is entirely the product of vegetation, and that nature has no other means of composing it; that it is not simply a chemical, but a vital product; and that its production, like its preservation, depends entirely on plants, and would be impossible without their agency. But as all plants united are not equal in bulk to the trees, it may be truly averred that any

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