⦙⦙БАНКИ И ФИНАНСЫ - Bank & Finance
The EDMOND DE ROTHSCHILD Group issues its economic analyses and forecasts in Monaco At a press conference held in the iconic Salon Top Marques Monaco, of which the EDMOND DE ROTHSCHILD Group is the main partner, Xavier Rolet, Chief Executive Officer of the London Stock Exchange Group and Mathilde Lemoine, Group Chief Economist, Edmond de Rothschild, gave us their financial analyses and forecasts for the second quarter of 2017 on the topic «Brexit, Trump: What’s happening with the funding of the real economy?»
In a very shaken global political context over the past few months, after various national elections and referenda, the aim of the two managers was to respond to the central question of these contrasting times: is the discrepancy between financial hope and economic reality reconcilable? They built their evidence around three areas. First, acknowledgment of the fact that the global economic situation has improved, and inflation is there, but investment remains timid. Second, Chinese policies are decisive for global growth in the coming quarters while decreases in American taxes are delayed. Finally, the Eurozone is strengthening financially and politically. According to Mathilde Lemoine, after hopes for a powerful acceleration in world growth caused by the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, interest and exchange rates have normalized. Projections therefore call for an acceleration in growth in America of 2.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2000 after a growth of 1.6% in 2016. In the opinion of Xavier Rolet, the key figure for world growth is Xi Jinping, not Donald Trump, based on the fact that the rise in interest rates and the dollar has come to a rapid end and US growth fell by 1.9% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2017, after growing from 1.5% in the first six months of 2016 to 1.9% in the second. Growth in China reached 6.9% in the first quarter following 6.7% in the first six months of 2016 and 6.8% in the second. China makes a 32% contribution to global growth, while the US only contributed 12% in 2008. The growth in China may therefore slow down and affect global business. Finally, the real structural change may come from the Eurozone, which has managed to consolidate its financial architecture due in particular to the implementation of financial solidarity mechanisms and a security purchase programme (Quantitative Easing), and has also gradually succeeded in putting the issue of the stabilization of its banking system on the table. The Eurozone could be the place where financial hopes are most measured in relation to its structural evolutions, in particular in the area of consolidation of the financial architecture of the single currency. Prospects for growth in the Eurozone could therefore continue to pick up once the positive effect of the French elections has passed. The conclusions reached by the two experts show that the strengthening of investments in Chinese infrastructure, the rise in the process of raw materials, the recovery of the industrial cycle throughout the world and increased inflation are weakening, and the reduction in real interest rates, simple hopes of wage increases and the implementation of tax reductions in the United States may mean that a slowdown in global economic growth in the coming quarters can be avoided.
БЕНЖАМЕН ВЕРДЕЙЛ BENJAMIN VERDEIL
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