Monthly Grain Crop Review April 2019 Jefferson City, MO
Wednesday, May 01, 2019
MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News
Spring has officially arrived and U.S. farmers have been working hard to get seed into the ground. Flooded fields and cold weather have been challenging factors. Any time the ground dried up, tractors were moving in the fields. There has been a noticeable increase in anhydrous application for this spring. Many fall preparations were delayed due to the precipitation last fall. There has been widespread frustration from supply running out across the state. Elevators and fertilizer suppliers have been hard at work to get trucks to refill tanks and get them back in the fields. The latest National Crop Progress report, released April 29, showed that 15 percent of U.S. corn has been planted and 3 percent has emerged. This is in line with last year’s progress, but behind the pace of the five year average. In addition, 3 percent of the nation’s soybeans have been planted, slightly lower than last year’s pace and the five year average. Missouri’s latest Crop Progress and Condition report showed that 45 percent of the state’s corn has been planted and 7 percent has emerged. This is about the pace of last year, but behind the five year average by 10 and 12 percent, respectively. Producers in Missouri have also planted 2 percent of the state’s soybeans. Looking at winter wheat, 11 percent of Missouri’s wheat has headed and 81 percent of the crop is classified as Fair to Good condition. The latest WASDE report was released on April 9. Supplies for 2018/2019 was unchanged for wheat, but exported and domestic use were reduced. Total feed and residual use was estimated at 70 million bushels, down 10 million from the previous estimate. Exports were reduced to 945 million bushels, down 20 million, due to a slow export pace. The 2018/2019 corn ending stocks were increased by 200 million bushels to 2.035 billion bushels, due to a reduced feed and residual use, as well as ethanol and exports. Feed and residual use was reduced to 5.3 billion bushels, down 75 million. Corn for ethanol production was reduced by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent Grain Crushings report. Exports decreased to 2.3 billion bushels, down 75 million bushels, mostly due to increased world competition. The 2018/2019 soybean ending stocks were reduced, due to lower imports and increased seed use. Ending stocks were estimated at 895 million bushels, a decrease of 5 million bushels, with soybean crush and exports unchanged. Turning focus to overseas, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased Argentina’s soy production from their last estimate by 2 million tonnes to 56 million tonnes for the current season. The weather has been favorable for a productive harvest. Corn production was also increased from 47.3 million tonnes to 48 million. According to the latest Crop Condition report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 50.7 percent of soybeans in South America have been harvested and 28.1 percent of their corn crop has been harvested.
The average April corn bid in Missouri was 3.59, 0.05 lower than March’s average corn bid. Statewide, corn bids ranged from 0.03 to 0.07 lower than last month’s averages. The highest corn bid statewide was 3.76 and the lowest corn bid was 3.30. Compared to April 2018, corn bids were 0.07 to 0.22 lower, with the combined average 0.15 lower than a year ago. Corn bids closed on April 30 uneven 0.02 lower to 0.04 higher, when compared to April 1. There has been discussion about how corn planting season has been delayed, due to the increased precipitation and flooding issues. This shows when looking at the five year average planting pace. Missouri farmers also had this issue last year, with the snow and rain throughout April and then summer coming at a drop of a hat. While there have been some planting delays, traders haven’t been too eager to jump on the delay to increase prices, generally due to modern technology having the ability and capacity to plant more acres in a shorter amount of time. In addition, the large stocks have kept a ceiling on potential rallies.
The average April soybean bid in Missouri was 8.49, 0.16 lower than March’s average soybean bid. Statewide, soybean bids ranged from 0.15 to 0.17 lower than last month’s averages. The highest soybean bid statewide was 8.84 and the lowest soybean bid was 7.76. Compared to April 2018, soybean bids were 1.58 to 1.70 lower, with the combined average 1.64 lower than a year ago. On April 30, soybean bids closed 0.22 to 0.54 lower, when compared to April 1. Old crop supplies are still oppressive. Most trade analysts and industry participants are expecting an increase to soybean acres, and the market has responded accordingly. Also, the unrelenting delay with a trade agreement with China has continued to weigh on the market. A trade deal would help increase old crop sales, if it is signed in time. There is some concern with a deal coming too late into the marketing year.
The average April soft wheat bid in Missouri was 4.45, 0.04 lower than March’s average wheat bid. Statewide, wheat bids ranged from steady to 0.06 lower than last month’s averages. The highest wheat bid statewide was 5.03 and the lowest wheat bid was 3.64. Compared to April 2018, soft wheat bids were 0.01 to 0.10 higher, with the combined average 0.05 higher than a year ago. On April 30, wheat bids closed 0.36 to 0.55 lower, when compared to April 1. Wheat prices have continued to feel the pressure from large U.S. and global stocks, as well as substandard demand.
*Sets of data for the graphs are from the Missouri Grain Cash Bids report that is published daily. Only dates in which markets are trading are represented. Source: MO Dept of Ag/USDA Market News Service, Jefferson City, MO Caroline Tyler-Carter, Market Reporter, (573)751-5618