COVID-19 in Strategic Intelligence of WEF

COVID-19 Dynamic Briefing Generated 23 March 2021 for Marco Antonio Gonzalez

COVID-19 Co-curated with Georgetown University Last review on Thu 23 July 2020

About This dynamic briefing draws on the collective intelligence of the Forum network to explore the key trends, interconnections and interdependencies between industry, regional and global issues. In the briefing, you will find a visual representation of this topic (Transformation Map – interactive version available online via intelligence.weforum.org ), an overview and the key trends affecting it, along with summaries and links to the latest research and analysis on each of the trends. Briefings for countries also include the relevant data from the Forum’s benchmarking indices. The content is continuously updated with the latest thinking of leaders and experts from across the Forum network, and with insights from Forum meetings, projects communities and activities.

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Executive summary COVID-19 has had an overwhelming impact since it was first detected in late 2019. By March 2021, there were more than 117 million confirmed cases and some 2.6 million related deaths. As the pandemic has spread it has stirred anxiety and political drama, overwhelmed health systems, and triggered potentially lasting geopolitical change. While vaccines are being rolled out in many high-income countries, Oxfam International has warned that half a billion people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the crisis. Around the world, desperate efforts are underway to contain what has become a profoundly disruptive outbreak.

This briefing is based on the views of a wide range of experts from the World Economic Forum’s Expert Network and is curated in partnership with Rebecca Katz, Director, Center for Global Health Science and Security, Ellie Graeden, Associate Professor (Adjunct), Alexandra Phelan, Assistant Professor, and Colin Carlson, Assistant Research Professor, at Georgetown University.

1. COVID-19 Treatments

9. COVID-19’s Economic Impact

Rapid progress has helped reduce fatality rates.

The pandemic may leave a mark on the global economy that will last for years to come.

2. New Variants Ultimately, it is predicted that COVID-19 vaccine-resistant variants will emerge.

3. The Media’s Role During COVID-19 Balancing the public’s need for critical information with business interests can be tricky.

4. COVID-19, Seasonality and Weather There are two kinds of seasonality for viruses, and one is particularly important when it comes to COVID-19.

5. The Virus and the Disease SARS-CoV-2 was detected in late 2019, and the spread of COVID-19 soon followed.

6. Developing and Distributing Vaccines Issues related to an equitable distribution to the most vulnerable will likely become more prominent.

7. Public Policy, Governance and COVID19 Adequate government support for those most affected will be necessary to mitigate the pandemic.

8. COVID-19’s Impact on Travel and Trade Global tourism and trade were hit hard by the pandemic, though forecasts have improved.

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COVID-19 Treatments Rapid progress has helped reduce fatality rates Since March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic and much of the world began implementing restrictive countermeasures, there have been some marked improvements in treatment that have helped mitigate severe cases. By February 2021, both the European Medicines Agency and the US Food and Drug Administration had approved the use of antiviral drug remdesivir for those hospitalized with a case of COVID-19. In the US, the FDA has also granted emergency use authorization for the rheumatoid arthritis drug baricitinib, which can be used in combination with remdesivir in cases where patients are on mechanical ventilators or need supplemental oxygen. Early data suggest that the antiinflammatory drug tocilizumab has been able to generate a 4% reduction in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients; however, the drug is extremely costly and so likely will only be available as a treatment in high-income countries. Blood thinners have also been shown to improve outcomes for hospitalized patients, and supplemental oxygen has become so important that there were widespread shortages across the US during a peak in cases in early 2021.

Through a large, randomized evaluation called RECOVERY - run by the WHO - the steroid dexamethasone was observed to reduce deaths by one-third in ventilated COVID-19 patients, and by one-fifth in other patients who were only receiving oxygen. This drug is both cheaper than tocilizumab and more effective, at least based on preliminary results. Dexamethasone, meanwhile, has been “strongly” recommended by the US National Institutes of Health for patients requiring supplemental oxygen, and particularly for those requiring mechanical ventilation. Many drugs continue to be tested for their efficacy in treating COVID-19, as well as for their ability to prevent the disease both before and after exposure to the virus that causes it. In addition to some more traditional medications, a monoclonal antibody treatment developed by Regeneron, REGN-COV2, had been approved for use by both the European Medicines Agency and the US FDA by February 2021. New treatments continue to be tested and approved by the world’s medicine agencies, and promise to remain critical tools for helping to reduce the fatality rate from a still-relativelynew and mysterious disease.

Related insight areas: Agile Governance, Science, Biotechnology, Global Health, Innovation, Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Future of Health and Healthcare

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Latest knowledge Imperial College London

Frontiers on COVID19

Imperial Covid-19 Response Team: A year tracking the global pandemic

Cardiovascular Disease and COVID19: Insight From Cases With Heart Failure

22 March 2021

15 March 2021 Imperial's COVID-19 Response Team has spent over a year tracking the trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic. Since January 2020, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has worked with scientists, governments and public health agencies around the world to help plan responses to the pandemic. In total the team have now published 42 reports, 12 planning tools and over 60 peer-reviewed publications. The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 2020-2021 Report reveals the impact of their work to date.

Revealing the scale of the pandemic threat.

Recent evidence indicates that a large proportion of deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can be attributed to cardiovascular disease, including acute myocardial infarction, arrhythmias and heart failure. Indeed, severe infection increases the risk of heart failure among patients with COVID-19. In most patients, heart failure arises from complex interactions between pre-existing conditions, cardiac injury, renin-angiotensin system activation, and the effects of systemic inflammation on the cardiovascular system. In this review, we summarize current knowledge regarding pathogen-driven heart failure occurring during treatment for COVID-19, the potential effects of commonly used cardiovascular and anti-infective drugs in these patients, and possible directions for establishing a theoretical basis for clinical treatment.

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Here's how to get billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses to the world 18 March 2021 The unprecedented development of several effective COVID19 vaccines in less than a year is an historic achievement in the annals of scientific research. No less impressive, however, is the work of the US government in organizing and subsidizing a complex supply chain for manufacturing and distributing the COVID-19 vaccine. American policymakers made large advance purchases of potential vaccines and supported some sponsors—such as Moderna and Johnson & Johnson—carrying out clinical trials, while simultaneously working with myriad far-flung and lesser-known contract manufacturers and suppliers of equipment and ingredients (from cellular material to glass tubing to syringes), to actually produce the vaccines and related supplies.

United Nations Environment

Green shoots: are COVID-19 recovery funds helping the environment?

10 March 2021 In the last year, governments have pledged trillions of dollars in COVID-19 relief, creating what some observers have called a once-in-a-generation chance to make planet-friendly investments—and save the Earth from a looming environmental catastrophe.

Project Syndicate

The Vaccination Opportunity for Global Health

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton

08 March 2021

Moving the Middle: How to Get More People to Take Vaccines

Although COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time, the global effort to administer them has been plagued by inequities. But it is not too late to ensure that the current race against the coronavirus leaves a lasting legacy of improved public health for developing and emerging economies.

15 March 2021 There are people who accept vaccines and eagerly await their turn for inoculation, and there are people who will always refuse them. In between lies “the moveable middle.”.

5 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

New Variants Ultimately, it is predicted that COVID-19 vaccine-resistant variants will emerge New COVID-19 variants are being identified regularly, altering the spread of the disease and impacting the effectiveness of medical countermeasures. Public health experts had long warned of mutations of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. We are now seeing these warnings become a reality, and several mutations have raised global concern.

SARS-CoV-2, like other RNA viruses including flu, is prone to making errors in its genetic code during replication - which results in roughly two changes (or “mutations”) every month during a considerable outbreak. New mutations cause variants, which will have different properties from the original strain.

Genomic surveillance is necessary to track these mutations, learn more about each new variant, and adjust our control and response efforts accordingly. In June 2020 a particular variant with one specific mutation, D614G, became the globally dominant form. Later in the year, another variant arose in South Africa, called B.1.351 (or 501.V2), which was associated with a rise in local COVID-19 cases - and with an ability of the virus to transmit more easily, and spread more rapidly.

In southeast England another mutation arose independently called B.1.1.7. This variant became dominant in London and southeast England in less than three months, and research suggests it may be up to 50% more transmissible than earlier strains. Early indications suggest the majority of vaccines in use retain at least some efficacy against the new variants. However, their spread has been rapid. B.1.1.7 has been detected in more than 49 countries, and increased detection in the absence of a direct connection to the UK suggests local spread in many places - likely months before the variant was recognized. Other strains have been shown to have at least partial resistance to one or more of the vaccines currently being administered. High rates of community spread enable other mutations to form; over time, it is predicted that vaccine-resistant variants will emerge.

Surveillance of these variants, as provided by viral genetic sequencing in addition to testing, will be needed to better understand the rate of strain divergence and spread - in addition to the ongoing evaluation of vaccine and treatment efficacy against new strains.

Related insight areas: Global Governance, Science, Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Biotechnology, Global Health, Future of Health and Healthcare, Vaccination

6 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Latest knowledge Project Syndicate

The New Yorker

Humanity’s Historic Test

What the Coronavirus Variants Mean for the End of the Pandemic

22 March 2021

07 March 2021 National leaders who bend to domestic pressure and hoard COVID-19 vaccines will ultimately leave their own countries worse off, given the coronavirus's propensity to acquire new mutations. It is now us versus them – humankind against the virus and its many mutations.

Dhruv Kullar writes about the challenges posed by the new variants of the coronavirus, what the prospects for mass vaccination look like in the United States, and why sequencing the genes of the virus is so essential.

Science Daily

The Conversation

Vaccines alone may not be enough to end pandemic

How well does the AstraZeneca vaccine work? An expert reviews the current evidence

18 March 2021

04 March 2021

Even as vaccines are becoming more readily available in the U.S., protecting against the asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes COVID-19 is key to ending the pandemic, say disease experts in a new article.

When the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was first authorised by the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, it was hailed as a milestone in turning the tide on the coronavirus. In the time since, this highly efficacious vaccine has suffered a lot of reputational damage. In January, the German press and French president Emmanuel Macron falsely claimed that it is largely ineffective in people over 65, despite there being no evidence to support this. Concrete evidence on how protective the vaccine is in older people has been lacking, leading some european countries to restrict the vaccine to under-65s. Together, these factors appear to have created high levels of scepticism in Europe and low levels of uptake.

Project Syndicate

Vaccines Can Mend US-EU Ties 15 March 2021 There is no doubt about US President Joe Biden’s desire to revitalize ties with Europe, which is why his administration must help the Europeans in their moment of need. The fastest way to do this – and to strengthen the transatlantic relationship – is US-European joint production of vaccines in Europe.

Harvard Kennedy School - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

How Many of America’s Coronavirus Deaths Were Unnecessary?

12 March 2021 America’s death toll from COVID is now larger than the total US combatant deaths in World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War combined. The question we should all be asking is how many of these deaths were unnecessary?.

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton

How Economic Recovery Hinges on the Vaccine Rollout 09 March 2021 The pace of the economic recovery in the U.S. in 2021 hinges on the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations, according to a brief by the Penn Wharton Budget Model. It projects that doubling the number of vaccine doses administered daily to 3 million would create more than 2 million jobs and boost real GDP by about 1% over the summer of 2021, with smaller effects later in the year.

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The Media’s Role During COVID-19 Balancing the public’s need for critical information with business interests can be tricky During a global pandemic, sources of information about risk factors and the latest recommendations from public officials for slowing the spread of the disease are critical. Amid any outbreak, whether it is COVID-19, SARS, or Ebola, the media plays a key role as an agenda-setter - by distilling complex data into easily digestible and useful information. However, COVID19 has shined a spotlight on several challenges faced by the media as the public looks to it to function as a public-health educator. The first involves balancing the public’s right to critical and timely health information with the media industry’s own business objectives. Some news outlets, including major publications like The New York Times and The Financial Times, have granted free access to coronavirus-related news without the need for a subscription. Others, such as The Boston Globe, have come under fire for maintaining their paywall policy even for articles about the pandemic. Restrictions placed on the right to information potentially penalize the poor - who may not be able to get the most accurate health-related news and information, thereby making them more susceptible to misinformation.

Related insight areas: Human Rights, Corporate Governance, Values, Global Governance, Behavioural Sciences, Future of Media, Entertainment and Sport, Global Health, Internet Governance, Arts and Culture, Inclusive Design

Another big challenge facing media outlets as they cover COVID-19 is the fact that they are constantly exposing people to sometimes questionable (or inaccurate) views and information - often referred to as the “infodemic.” Concerns have also been raised about mental health as people steadily consume negative, pandemic-related news while making disruptive lifestyle adjustments - like working from home or on the frontlines, and limiting social interaction with friends and loved ones. One survey in China conducted relatively early in the pandemic found that social media exposure was associated with depression and anxiety, and the irresponsible airing of problematic views has been blamed for fueling racist assaults on people of Asian origin for their association with a “Chinese” disease. Perhaps the most difficult challenge facing the media is the need to communicate in a way that restores faith in scientific institutions, amid a constant barrage of misinformation related to everything from the concept that exposure to sunlight or cleaning products can prevent COVID-19, to the notion that it does not affect young people. Disseminating such ideas can severely undermine official public health recommendations, and put the public at greater risk.

- This key issue is curated in partnership with Dr. Edmund W.J. Lee, Public Health Communications Scientist and Research Fellow at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

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Latest knowledge Kaiser Health News

Harvard Kennedy School - Shorenstein Center

So You’re Vaccinated Against Covid.

Now What?

Misinformation as Motivated Reasoning: Experimental Evidence

22 March 2021

11 March 2021

As you surely know, this country’s covid vaccination effort has been plagued by major birth pangs: registration snafus, poor communication , faulty data and a scant supply of vaccine — all exacerbated by inequitable allocation, alleged political favoritism and unseemly jockeying for shots. Still, as of Friday, over 118 million shots had gone into arms, and about 42 million people, 12.6% of the nation’s population , had been fully vaccinated. Nearly one-quarter of U.S. residents have had at least one dose. The vaccine rollout is finally ramping up — just as the deadly winter surge has ended, dramatically reducing infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths. President Joe Biden has promised enough vaccine for every adult in the country by the end of May and dangled the hope of a return to semi-normalcy by July 4 .

There are competing accounts for the partisan divisions occurring throughout American life. One is that they are genuine divides due to a strengthened sense of partisan identity. The other is that they reflect partisan cheerleading— insincere support for the “home team” when there is little cost to doing so. We assess the applicability of these claims to political misinformation in the post-Trump era. We test between these alternatives with experiments that offer incentives for correct survey responses and allow respondents to search for information before answering each question. We find that partisan cheerleading inflates informational divides modestly and incentives have no impact on partisan divides in information search.

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton

Project Syndicate

Keeping Workers Safe: What Do the Numbers Say?

Vaccine Strains 18 March 2021

09 March 2021 The European Union’s sluggish COVID-19 vaccination efforts are currently dominating the headlines and undermining confidence in the bloc. But, overall, rich countries remain well ahead of the developing world in the global scramble for supplies – and the longer this imbalance persists, the greater the risk that new coronavirus variants will emerge that can again threaten the world.

When the coronavirus pandemic took hold, millions of nonessential workers had the benefit of shifting from the office to the safety and convenience of home. That wasn’t a practical option for essential workers employed in jobs requiring a high degree of interaction with the public or with each other. Doctors warned that the risk for disease transmission would be greater for these vulnerable workers, and they were right. A new study has measured that risk, revealing the real threat for essential workers and the potential benefits from business closure policies. Scientists from Penn collaborated with researchers from Independence Blue Cross on the study titled, “ The Impact of the Nonessential Business Closure Policy on COVID-19 Infection Rates ,” which was recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Center for Global Development

Still Neglected and Still Not Gone: The Implications of COVID-19 for the WHO Policy of Elimination of Congenital Syphilis 15 March 2021 In many low- and middle-income countries, the COVID-19 pandemic is limiting access to antenatal care and posing considerable challenges to global efforts to eliminate congenital syphilis. A review of the present WHO strategy to eliminate congenital syphilis is urgently needed.

LSE Business Review

Requiring vaccine passports for certain activities: discrimination or behavioural change?

05 March 2021 Vaccine passports, or digital certificates of vaccination, can be required in any activity where admission rights are a business choice. But they can be used more widely in society. Vaccination cards are already typically required for children who are sent to childcare, school, and summer camps. Joan Costa-Font looks at vaccine passports’ potential for discrimination, their ability … Continued.

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COVID-19, Seasonality and Weather There are two kinds of seasonality for viruses, and one is particularly important when it comes to COVID-19 The coronaviruses we normally come into contact with are seasonal and - like flu or the common cold - show up more in the winter and mostly go away in the summer. As the pandemic has spread, many wondered whether COVID-19 would exhibit similar behaviour. Viruses can show two kinds of seasonality, and both could have affected COVID-19. Some scientists expected to see “environmental” seasonality, for example - heat and humidity in the air can change how droplets spread respiratory viruses, and sunlight may have been expected to kill the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 on surfaces. But based on previous encounters with pandemic flu, we know that these factors only have a minimal impact on transmission during the early days of a pandemic; while they might change any one person’s individual exposure, at the population level these factors only drive seasonal cycles of disease when immunity has started to accumulate. As a result, COVID-19 didn’t simply go away in the summer of 2020 - and probably will not in future summer seasons, including at various epicentres of transmission, at least for a few more years.

“Behavioural” seasonality still matters when it comes to COVID19. In extreme heat or cold, people tend to gather indoors more frequently, and might disregard official or unofficial social distancing rules and norms (or, official rules could be prematurely discarded). If that happens, it can lead to outbreaks. In general, the degree of seasonality to COVID-19 transmission will depend on its trajectory in the coming years, including the efficacy and breadth of vaccination globally.

Depending on vaccine efficacy against new and continually emerging strains, it is possible that we might increasingly see seasonal cycles of transmission in the near-term - which could become more established over the coming three to five years.

There has been some concern that the pandemic could be even worse if other debilitating or deadly diseases were to spread widely at the same time. In the worst-case scenario, this could result in a “syndemic” - that is, a situation where people ignore or postpone measures taken to diagnose, prevent or treat other diseases in a way that could ultimately strain healthcare systems to the breaking point.

Related insight areas: Future of Health and Healthcare, Global Health, Science, Digital Economy and New Value Creation, Behavioural Sciences, Agile Governance, Aviation, Travel and Tourism, Retail, Consumer Goods and Lifestyle, Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Public Finance and Social Protection

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Latest knowledge Vox LACEA

Peterson Institute for International Economics

The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

US vaccine rollout must solve challenges of equity and hesitancy

20 March 2021

09 March 2021

The COVID -19 pandemic has done nothing good for the mood of Park Ha-young, an undergraduate at Seoul National University. She spent much of last year worrying about the disease, and her chances of spreading it: “I was terrified of becoming the person to cause a huge outbreak.” Her freedom has been drastically curtailed. The government determines whether she can see friends or attend classes, leaving her frustrated and unable to make plans. She is beginning to worry about finding a job after she graduates.

The effort to immunize the US population against COVID-19 as quickly as possible is one of the most complex logistical undertakings ever attempted in this country. Four obstacles have hobbled health authorities’ efforts thus far: The supply of doses from the manufacturers has been limited;...

Frontiers

Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic

Nature

05 March 2021

Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible

Various measures have been taken in different countries to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic. But, throughout the world, many citizens don't understand well how these measures are taken and even question the decisions taken by their government. Should the measures be more (or less) restrictive? Are they taken for a too long (or too short) period of time? To provide some quantitative elements of response to these questions, we consider the well-known SEIR model for the Covid-19 epidemic propagation and propose a pragmatic model of the government decision-making operation. Although simple and obviously improvable, the proposed model allows us to study the tradeoff between health and economic aspects in a pragmatic and insightful way.

18 March 2021 Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

Asian Development Bank

To make vaccinations programs work, communication is key 15 March 2021 During an online fitness class, my trainer asked me if I would opt for vaccination against COVID-19. I told him I would do so as soon as I had the option. Whether or not to get vaccinated has never been a dilemma as I come from South Asia, where vaccines play a major role in saving lives. The world before vaccines is a world we cannot afford to forget.

Not convinced, the trainer enquired if I was aware that the COVID-19 vaccine could alter the recipient’s DNA.

VoxEU

Will Schumpeter catch COVID-19?

Evidence from France 04 March 2021 Concerns have emerged that public support to firms in the COVID-19 crisis has been too generous, reducing exit of unproductive firms and preventing Schumpeterian destructive creation. Using data on French firm failures in 2020, this column suggests that these concerns are, at this stage, unwarranted. Although the number of firms filing for bankruptcy was well below its normal level, the same factors that predicted firm failures in 2019 – primarily low productivity and debt – were at work in a similar way in 2020. Overall, the findings point to hibernation rather than zombification.

The Economist

How covid-19 is boosting innovation 10 March 2021 Covid-19 has accelerated the adoption of technologies and pushed the world faster into the future. As businesses and organisations look towards the postpandemic era, what lessons can be learned about innovation? .

11 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

The Virus and the Disease SARS-CoV-2 was detected in late 2019, and the spread of COVID-19 soon followed Not long after it was first detected in late 2019, the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was having an overwhelming global impact.

Coronaviruses are a class of respiratory viruses that have caused everything from the common cold to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Humans are infected by exposure to the virus in respiratory liquid particles, from tiny aerosols less than 0.0005 centimetres in size to larger droplets. These can be spread when an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, speaks, or even just breathes heavily (current evidence indicates that the primary form of transmission is through respiratory droplets between people in close contact). Aerosols may cause transmission particularly in crowded and confined settings with inadequate ventilation, where people remain for extended periods of time or engage in activities more likely to result in exposure. The virus is highly contagious - on average, each infection will infect more than two additional people, and coronavirus variants that have emerged more recently have transmission rates that are even higher (some evidence has suggested variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil are about 50% more contagious).

This rate of additional infections depends heavily on behaviour.

Super-spreading events where an infected person transmits to many more people than is average have been a significant driver of COVID-19. The disease causes clinical symptoms including shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, fatigue, fever, malaise, and loss of sense of taste or smell. Symptoms typically begin within a week of exposure, but may take up to 14 days to appear. The virus can be transmitted before people know they are infected; current evidence suggests that about 20% of infected people will not experience symptoms but may still be able to transmit the virus to others. People who are even potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection should quarantine for up to 14 days; in the US, the CDC has said people fully vaccinated do not need to quarantine if exposed to the disease.

A person is typically no longer able to transmit to others 10 days after their symptoms resolve. Some people may have persistent issues (“long Covid”) including organ damage (particularly to the lungs) and severe fatigue. There are also concerns about long-term mental health impacts in health care workers and survivors.

Related insight areas: Global Governance, Vaccination, Behavioural Sciences, Retail, Consumer Goods and Lifestyle, Ageing, Public Finance and Social Protection, Mental Health, Agile Governance, Values, Global Health, Future of Media, Entertainment and Sport

12 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Latest knowledge London School of Economics and Political Science

Imperial College London

UK researchers identify inflammatory protein linked to severe COVID-19

The public places more trust in scientists and politicians, when they appear individually, rather than together, to communicate COVID-19 public health measures

10 March 2021 Patients with severe COVID-19 show increased levels of a key protein in their blood, which researchers believe may help identify those most at risk. In an analysis of more than 500 COVID-19 patients across the UK, researchers identified several inflammatory markers in blood which increased within the early stages of COVID-19 in those who went on to become critically ill. One marker in particular, a cytokine called GM-CSF, was found at higher levels in those who later progressed to severe disease, compared to healthy controls or those with influenza, and was found to be almost 10 times higher in those who died from COVID-19. According to the team, led by Imperial College London, University of Edinburgh and University of Liverpool, increased GM-CSF could help to identifying those at risk of developing severe COVID-19 and provide a target for new treatments which could modify their course of disease. We identified one inflammatory marker in particular, a cytokine called GM-CSF, which appears to specifically mark out severe COVID-19 and may play a role in driving severe disease Dr Ryan Thwaites National Heart & Lung Institute.

19 March 2021 Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, politicians have been accompanied by scientists when communicating the need for anti-contagion measures. In this post, Mike Farjam discusses the results of a joint Italian/Swedish experiment into public attitudes towards this form of expert communication. The experiment conducted in Lombardy, Italy – one of the world’s hardest hit regions, during the …

Continued.

Science Daily

Ultrasound has potential to damage coronaviruses, study finds: Simulations show ultrasound waves at medical imaging frequencies can cause the virus' shell and spikes to collapse and rupture 17 March 2021

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton

A new study suggests coronaviruses, including the virus that causes COVID-19, may be vulnerable to ultrasound vibrations. Simulations suggest ultrasound waves at medical imaging frequencies can cause the virus' shell and spikes to collapse and rupture.

What’s Ahead in the Second Year of COVID-19?

08 March 2021 When COVID-19 began its insidious march across the globe more than a year ago, it disrupted every industry and forced fast innovation as business leaders worked to adjust to a new world order. Last year, in Wharton’s Fast Forward video series , several of the School’s faculty offered their insight into what the second half of 2020 would look like during the pandemic. That insight is needed even more this year as the ground keeps shifting, vaccines are rolled out, and new coronavirus mutations emerge. Much has changed since the start of the pandemic, from consumer behavior to health care delivery to working from home. What changes are lasting?.

Frontiers on COVID19

COVID-19 Protective Behaviors are Forms of Prosocial and Unselfish Behaviors 15 March 2021 The aim of this study was to explore the effects of prosocial and antisocial personality tendencies and context-related state factors on compliance with protective behaviors to prevent the spread of coronavirus infections. Six types of prosocial tendencies (altruism, dire, compliant, emotional, public, and anonymous) and selfishness as the antisocial tendency were included as personality factors, while fear related to the pandemic and empathy towards vulnerable groups (i.e., those in forced isolation) were context-related factors. Furthermore, mediation effect of empathy and moderation effect of fear were explored in relations between personality factors and protective behaviors. The sample included 581 participants (78.3% females). The data were collected from March 28 to April 6, 2020, during the emergency state and curfew in Serbia.

Harvard Business School Working Knowledge

COVID Killed the Traditional Workplace. What Should Companies Do Now? 08 March 2021 When the pandemic recedes, executives can’t expect office life to be as it was. But they can create a new work world that will keep employees happy and productive, say Harvard Business School faculty members.

13 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Developing and Distributing Vaccines Issues related to an equitable distribution to the most vulnerable will likely become more prominent When COVID-19 began spreading, the global health community and pharmaceutical industry launched a sweeping effort to develop the safe, effective vaccines necessary for a potential return to day-to-day normalcy. As with any new disease, there was no vaccine for COVID-19 when it emerged - and despite the SARS and MERS epidemics, and warnings about the pandemic potential of a novel coronavirus, the work on vaccines had to start from scratch. Vaccines generally require years to develop and obtain approval, though the broad push for COVID-19 vaccines benefitted from relatively rapid development. The testing and approval process is always critical, and by March 2021 there were 74 coronavirus vaccines clinical trials, and 21 in the final stages of testing. Six had been approved for full use, and another six were in early or limited use. The mRNA vaccines made by BioNTech-Pfizer and Moderna require two doses, as does the Oxford and AstraZeneca vaccine - though the Oxford and AstraZeneca version does not require freezer storage, which could make its transport easier and boost accessibility (though a trial indicated its lack of efficacy against a variant that has become prevalent in South Africa).

Johnson & Johnson announced that its single-dose vaccine is 66% effective in January 2021. That was significantly lower efficacy than other varieties, though distribution and administration of the vaccine is relatively easy as it can be stored in a normal refrigerator. The UK had surpassed many European countries in terms of vaccinations per capita by February 2021; it started vaccinating its population in early December 2020, and has been doing so on an adjusted schedule - prioritizing rollout of the first doses while delaying the second for up to several months. The efficacy of this strategy is debated among scientists and experts. In the US, the Biden administration announced in February 2021 that enough vaccines had been purchased to cover the entire population.

Global access to vaccines is in every nation’s interest. In order to ensure access in low- and middle- income countries with little purchasing power, Gavi, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI), and the World Health Organization established the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) which uses funds from private donors and high income countries. COVAX’s goal is to buy enough doses for at least 20% of participating countries’ populations by the end of 2021.

Related insight areas: Innovation, Future of Media, Entertainment and Sport, Vaccination, Biotechnology, Future of Health and Healthcare, Human Rights, Justice and Law, Insurance, Global Health, Global Governance, Inclusive Design

14 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Latest knowledge Science

FiveThirtyEight

Appropriate names for COVID-19 variants

COVID-19 Has Led To An Uptick In Anti-Asian Racism

19 March 2021

10 March 2021

Multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants are now circulating globally. Those with mutations in functional domains such as the receptor binding domain of the spike protein are of particular concern.

In December 2020, three new variants of concern (VOC) with a common mutation at position 501 in the spike protein were reported: VOC-202012/01 (B.1.1.7, 501Y.V1, 20I) was first identified in the United Kingdom, 501Y.V2 (B.1.351, 20H) was first described by South African researchers, and P.1 (501Y.V3, 20J) was first identified in Japan and described by Brazilian researchers. Unfortunately, variants are widely being referred to by their country of first description. This naming convention should be avoided. .

During his campaign rallies and back when he still had access to Twitter, then-President Donald Trump often referred to the coronavirus as the “Chinese virus” or “China virus.” .

Center for Global Development

A Moral Failure in Pandemic Response 08 March 2021 As the virus spread and shut down life as we know it, global response became increasingly tainted by provincialism. From seizing masks and medical supplies en route to other countries to preventing vaccine exports, the world’s richest countries turned inward and neglected the global response effort. It is not too late to correct what has been an egregious failure in leadership.

The Economist

How Europe’s vaccine caution can cost lives

Harvard Kennedy School – Journalist’s Resource

Racial and ethnic minorities, older adults underrepresented in U.S. vaccine trials over the past decade

17 March 2021 It does not take much for people to lose confidence in vaccines. When a few Europeans who had received the AstraZeneca ( AZ ) shot for covid-19 suffered unusual blood clotting that was sometimes fatal, many countries in the European Union stopped using it. They say this shows they take safety seriously. Unfortunately, their caution is more likely to cost lives. The suspensions began after Norway reported four cases of blood clotting in adults given the AZ vaccine.

04 March 2021 “Anytime we have chronic underrepresentation of any given population, we’re not going to understand the medical needs and how the proposed treatments will work for that population,” says Dr. Julie K. Silver. The post Racial and ethnic minorities, older adults underrepresented in U.S. vaccine trials over the past decade appeared first on The Journalist's Resource .

Frontiers on COVID19

Emergence of Bat-Related Betacoronaviruses: Hazard and Risks

Science Daily

Genomics study identifies routes of transmission of coronavirus in care homes

15 March 2021 The current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with more than 111 million reported cases and 2,500,000 deaths worldwide (mortality rate currently estimated at 2.2%), is a stark reminder that coronaviruses (CoV)-induced diseases remain a major threat to humanity.

COVID-19 is only the latest case of betacoronavirus (β-CoV) epidemics/pandemics. In the last 20 years, two deadly CoV epidemics, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS; fatality rate 9.6%) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS; fatality rate 34.7%), plus the emergence of HCoVHKU1 which causes the winter common cold (fatality rate 0.5%), were already a source of public health concern.

Betacoronaviruses can also be a threat for livestock, as evidenced by the Swine Acute Diarrhea Syndrome (SADS) epizootic in pigs.

03 March 2021 Genomic surveillance -- using information about genetic differences between virus samples -- can help identify how SARS-CoV-2 spreads in care home settings, whose residents are at particular risk, according to new research.

15 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Public Policy, Governance and COVID-19 Adequate government support for those most affected will be necessary to mitigate the pandemic Effective public policy and governance are critical during largescale emergencies for managing response measures and mitigating impacts. When it comes to health emergencies like outbreaks or pandemics, saving lives, preventing illness, and protecting the health of economies requires mounting a rapid and sufficiently-resourced public health response. Bolstering health care systems and resources, implementing necessary financial and social support (with a particular focus on the most vulnerable populations), and funding the development and distribution of medical countermeasures for long-term management of the crisis all play a role. To achieve this in the face of an unfamiliar new virus, these measures must be supported by policies and laws that help reduce transmission and prevent the overwhelming of public health systems until vaccines and therapeutics become widely available to prevent and treat the disease. Officials in Wuhan, China, for example the location of the first detection of COVID-19 - implemented a drastic lockdown in January 2020 that included prohibition of travel in and out of the city and restricted residents to their homes. This was imitated with varying degrees of severity in other locations as they, too, confronted the pandemic.

The evidence is still being established for which laws and policies (and in what context) are the most effective for reducing transmission - and also the least restrictive necessary to protect public health. However, it is evident that a combination of restrictions, tailored to circumstances, is needed to prevent transmission. These restrictions must be coupled with paid sick leave, mechanisms to provide childcare, financial support to redress disproportionate impacts on the vulnerable (including frontline workers), and social distancing measures that everyone is able to adhere to as best as possible. Access to testing and treatment without incurring a financial burden can help ensure not only a strong COVID-19 response, but also address underlying inequalities and the disproportionate impacts of the disease on historically marginalized populations. The broad application of these types of policies, and government support for those most impacted, will be key for mitigation. The global response is currently focused on vaccine rollout, which is underway in a number of countries. The WHO’s COVID-19 Global Vaccine Access program (COVAX) is seeking to ensure vaccines are available to low- and middle-income countries, and it delivered its first doses in February 2021.

Related insight areas: Financial and Monetary Systems, Peace and Resilience, Agile Governance, Justice and Law, Digital Economy and New Value Creation, Systemic Racism, Inclusive Design, Public Finance and Social Protection, Taxation, Infrastructure, Global Governance

16 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Latest knowledge Science

Project Syndicate

COVID-19 vaccination passports

When Vaccination Is a “Crime”

19 March 2021

08 March 2021

As countries grow eager to reignite their economies and people increasingly yearn for mobility and normalcy in life, pressure is mounting for some form of COVID-19 health status certificate that would support these desires. There has already been an explosion of COVID-19 passport initiatives for domestic use and international travel.

But scientific, legal, and ethical concerns abound with such documentation. Given the high stakes, what is the path forward? .

Hasan Gokal, the medical director of the Harris County, Texas COVID-19 response team, refused to let a vial of vaccine expire and sought out eligible recipients before the doses would have to be discarded. For his sound ethical reasoning, he was fired and faces criminal prosecution.

Frontiers on COVID19

Effectiveness of a Family Support Intervention on Caregiving Burden in Family of Elderly Patients With Cognitive Decline After the COVID-19 Lockdown

The New Humanitarian

COVID-19 cases surge as Papua New Guinea waits for vaccines

04 March 2021

17 March 2021 The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had a great impact on patients with cognitive decline or dementia.

The lockdown period may exacerbate behavioral disorders and worsen distress of caregivers. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a family support intervention on the negative effects that the COVID-19 lockdown may have on patients and related caregivers.Methods: We recruited patients whose related caregivers had attended a family support course before the COVID-19 lockdown. The course was for family members of patients with cognitive decline or dementia and consisted in eight meetings during which the participants received information about the disease, the management of neuropsychiatric symptoms, and community resources and services available for patients with dementia.

Papua New Guinea is imposing nationwide lockdowns as surging coronavirus cases threaten to overwhelm a meagre health system, while vaccine imports are still weeks away.

The Pacific nation has recorded dozens of new daily infections through March, more than doubling its total COVID19 caseload in the last month. Papua New Guinea’s health department announced it would begin “nationwide isolation” this week. “Everyone has a responsibility to look after themselves by following the health measures,” said the head of the country’s COVID-19 response, David Manning. The virus has now been reported in 19 of the country’s 22 provinces or regions.

Project Syndicate

Vaccine Nationalists Are Not Immune

The Conversation

11 March 2021

Poor vaccine take-up in BAME communities is not just down to hesitancy

Rich countries' failure to lead a coordinated global response to the pandemic has been regarded as a moral failure. But now that the continued spread of the virus elsewhere is producing new variants, it has turned out to be a practical failure, too.

01 March 2021 Stories about vaccine hesitancy in various communities described as Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) have led public figures to appeal to this supposedly reluctant group through video campaigns. Yet, in campaigns to address vaccine hesitancy, the relevance of the legacy of discrimination that many of these communities face is being ignored. This is in spite of glaring issues such as historical concerns about inadequate and unethical medical treatment towards members of some of these communities. What is driving some in these groups to ask legitimate questions about the vaccine before agreeing to take it isn’t necessarily due to vaccine hesitancy. In many cases, it could be more complex.

London School of Economics and Political Science

Why certain lifestyles and interests may have influenced COVID-19 decision-making more than others 10 March 2021 Zac Greene and Maarja Luhiste write that, although little studied, cabinet members’ lived experiences and interests likely impact the decisions they make. They argue that certain such experiences have probably been better represented in COVID-19 decisions than others due to the profile of prominent politicians. .

17 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

COVID-19’s Impact on Travel and Trade Global tourism and trade were hit hard by the pandemic, though forecasts have improved International tourist arrivals declined by 74% in 2020 compared to the year earlier, according to the World Tourism Organization, which translates into a loss of $1.3 trillion in related export revenue. Even in the relatively early days of the pandemic, European Union officials estimated that Europe’s tourism industry was losing €1 billion per month due solely to the decrease in arrivals from China. Global trade more broadly has also been significantly impacted. In October 2020, the World Trade Organization estimated that the volume of world merchandise trade would decline by 9.2% in 2020 as a result of the pandemic - though more recent data have suggested that following a 4% increase in the fourth quarter of the year, the decline for 2020 was 5.3%. As commerce and trade continue to be hindered by COVID-19, it will likely prompt a need for further responsive action from international organizations and governments. The US passed a $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue bill in March 2021 that includes $15 billion in support allocated for workers in the airline industry, in addition to support for small businesses.

Following China’s initial detection of COVID-19, countries around the world began imposing travel bans on China. This occurred despite World Health Organization recommendations against international travel and trade restrictions - which are typically insufficient to completely prevent transmission and can provide a false sense of security. Still, China continued in many ways to function as “the world’s factory.” By May 2020, when many places were struggling with the peak of the pandemic, China’s face mask exports had topped $14 billion. China is home to seven of the 10 busiest container ports in the world, though shipping companies bringing goods from China had to reduce the number of vessels in operation due to lowered demand. In some ways the pandemic further hindered alreadydifficult trade relations between China and the US. Despite a “phase one” trade deal between the countries intended to improve ties, some US tariffs on goods from China remained in place during a global economic downturn triggered by the coronavirus. Still, following the change in leadership in the US in November 2020, expectations increased for a reset of trade relations.

Related insight areas: European Union, Aerospace, Arts and Culture, The Digital Transformation of Business, International Trade and Investment, Aviation, Travel and Tourism, Migration, Advanced Manufacturing and Production, Geopolitics, China, Geo-economics, United States

18 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Latest knowledge Frontiers

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton

Public Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Behaviors Towards Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) During a National Epidemic—China

How Could the U.S. Vaccine Rollout Be Improved?

09 March 2021

19 March 2021

It’s been three months since New York City critical care nurse Sandra Lindsey became the first American to receive the coronavirus vaccine outside a clinical trial. As Lindsey was jabbed in the arm, Gov. Andrew Cuomo watched a livestream of the long-awaited injection and exclaimed, “I believe this is the weapon that will end the war.” But the fierce battle against the pandemic wages on. Although more than 92 million Americans have been vaccinated against COVID-19, the rollout has been uneven and slower than expected. The problem, according to Wharton professor Gad Allon , is a decentralized approach.

Background: The rapid outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) posed a serious threat to China, followed by compulsive measures taken against the national emergency to control its further spread. This study was designed to describe residents' knowledge, attitudes, and practice behaviors (KAP) during the outbreak of COVID-19.

Methods: An anonymous online questionnaire was randomly administrated to residents in mainland China between Mar 7 and Mar 16, 2020. Residents' responses to KAP were quantified by descriptive and stratified analyses. A Multiple Logistic Regression model was employed to identify risk factors associated with KAP scores. Results: A total of 10,195 participants were enrolled from 32 provinces of China.

Scientific American

Trump’s Policy Failures Have Exacted a Heavy Toll on Public Health 05 March 2021

Project Syndicate In the final year of Donald Trump’s presidency, more than 450,000 Americans died from COVID-19, and life expectancy fell by 1.13 years, the biggest decrease since World War II. Many of the deaths were avoidable; COVID-19 mortality in the U.S. was 40 percent higher than the average of the other wealthy nations in the Group of Seven (G7).

Stopping the Next Pandemic 16 March 2021 Even if the world does manage to end the COVID-19 pandemic, we can’t simply breathe a sigh of relief and return to business as usual. With the number of new infectious diseases rising fast, the next pandemic could be just around the corner.

Pew Research Center

Project Syndicate

In their own words: What Americans think about China

China’s Regulatory War on Ant

04 March 2021

12 March 2021

Americans’ opinions of China have soured in recent years, according to a new Pew Research Center survey . What are americans thinking about when they say they have a negative view of china? To find out, we asked members of our American Trends Panel to describe, in their own words, the first things that come to mind when they think about China.

Then we analyzed the 2,010 responses we received. Many of these responses touched on multiple topics, so we coded the first five things that any individual mentioned.

Chinese fintech conglomerate Ant Group has quickly grown into an internet titan, owing not only to regulatory lag but also to its agile adaptation to rule changes.

But recent strong official criticism of the firm, coming on top of the suspension of its IPO, suggests that the country's regulators have finally caught up.

19 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

COVID-19’s Economic Impact The pandemic may leave a mark on the global economy that will last for years to come While stock markets had largely stabilized several months after the initial impact of COVID-19, debate about whether peoples’ lives should be put at risk to re-open economies and keep commerce flowing continued. By May 2020 China had largely reactivated its economic activity, but other countries cycled through re-opening and then closing as caseloads increased. In the US, individual states were left to devise their own plans even as the country saw confirmed cases rise. In May 2020 the European Commission unveiled a €1.85 trillion pandemic recovery plan, and in March 2021 the US passed a $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue bill that marked the largest expansion of government support programs in that country in more than a half-century. Central banks have cut interest rates to encourage more consumer activity, and in an echo of the global financial crisis some triggered emergency asset-buying programs. The effect of the pandemic on markets has been dizzying. In midMarch 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a measure of the most prominent stocks in the US, registered its secondworst day of trading ever - but by November 2020 it hit a record high.

This implies that stock markets do not reflect actual economies; recent market gains have been mostly associated with the performance of large corporations. Stock markets also appear to be divorced from the trajectory of labour markets. The pandemic continued to trigger widespread job losses well into 2021, and according to the US Centers for Disease Control the costs related to premature death due to COVID-19 in that country alone are projected to amount to $4.4 trillion by the end of the year. According to the World Bank, global GDP contracted by 4.3% in 2020, but is expected to expand by 4% in 2021 - assuming COVID-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread. Still, experts say the pandemic will have a longterm economic impact that could trigger future global recessions. The International Monetary Fund has projected that the cumulative loss in output relative to the path projected prepandemic may grow from $11 trillion in 2020-2021, to $28 trillion over the years 2020-2025. That, the IMF has said, would mark a “severe setback” to the improvement in average living standards in both rich and poor countries.

Related insight areas: Future of Economic Progress, Private Investors, Global Governance, Banking and Capital Markets, Workforce and Employment, Geo-economics, Institutional Investors, International Trade and Investment, Public Finance and Social Protection, Financial and Monetary Systems, International Security

20 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

Latest knowledge VoxEU

Asian Development Bank

Economic preparation for the next pandemic

Achieving a better COVID-19 vaccine rollout

18 March 2021

10 March 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic is the first time in history that closing entire economies has been used as a medical tool, simultaneously and worldwide. This column argues that such ‘pandonomics’ cannot be repeated during future pandemics that are sure to come – the costs are too heavy. Since lockdowns are very costly, future economic nonpharmaceutical interventions need to be designed more intelligently, helping the economy to restructure and support the transition from a basically ignorant and domestically oriented society into a pandemic-aware one.

Ensuring equitable access to vaccines is crucial for developing countries in Asia to reopen their economies and recover. Well-designed policies will speed the rebound of Asian economies and have impacts that span the globe.

Center for Global Development

Financing for Global Health Security and Pandemic Preparedness: Taking Stock and What’s Next 08 March 2021

MIT Sloan Management Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the ways in which global pandemic preparedness and response are underprioritized and under-resourced. But the good news is that today’s shortfalls are finally eliciting global action.

A Comprehensive Approach to Cyber Resilience 16 March 2021

World Health Organization

Insight on cyberattacks during the COVID-19 pandemic were derived from Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Cyber Actors Take Advantage of COVID-19 Pandemic to Exploit Increased Use of Virtual Environments,” Alert No. I-040120-PSA, April 1, 2020, www.ic3.gov ; and M. Miller, “FBI Sees Spike in Cyber Crime Reports During Coronavirus Pandemic,” The Hill, April 16, 2020, https://thehill.com . S. Steinberg, “Cyberattacks Now Cost Companies $200,000 on Average, Putting Many Out of Business,” CNBC.com, Oct. 13, 2019, www.cnbc.com . Smith, E. Lostri, and J. Lewis, “The Hidden Cost of Cybercrime,” PDF file (McAfee and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 2020), www.mcafee.com . VAULTIS (visible, accessible, understandable, linked, trustworthy, interoperable, and secure) is the data strategy mantra and name of the U.S.

LIVE: Media briefing on COVAX starting COVID-19 vaccine rollout 02 March 2021 LSE Business Review

COVID-19 and self-employment ten months into the crisis 02 March 2021 Almost a year into the crisis, the latest lockdown has hit the self-employed hard in the UK. In January 2021, 57% of surveyed self-employed workers were earning less than £1,000 per month, up from 31% in January 2020 and 46% in August 2020.

UNESCO

UNESCO Roundtable on COVID-19 Vaccines: WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus 10 March 2021 The responsiveness and the resolve of science in the fight against the pandemic has been remarkable. Within a year since the global outbreak of a novel virus, vaccines are being developed with record-breaking speed, with several types already being rolled out in some parts of the world. However, emerging obstacles including “vaccine nationalism,” intellectual property barriers, and “vaccine hesitancy” are working against our efforts to defeat the disease.

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References 1. COVID-19 Treatments

5. The Virus and the Disease

Imperial Covid-19 Response Team: A year tracking the global pandemic, Imperial College London, www.imperial.ac.uk Here's how to get billions of COVID-19 vaccine doses to the world, Peterson Institute for International Economics, www.piie.com Moving the Middle: How to Get More People to Take Vaccines, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu Cardiovascular Disease and COVID-19: Insight From Cases With Heart Failure, Frontiers on COVID19, www.frontiersin.org Green shoots: are COVID-19 recovery funds helping the environment?, United Nations Environment, www.unep.org The Vaccination Opportunity for Global Health, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org

The public places more trust in scientists and politicians, when they appear individually, rather than together, to communicate COVID-19 public health measures, London School of Economics and Political Science, blogs.lse.ac.uk Ultrasound has potential to damage coronaviruses, study finds: Simulations show ultrasound waves at medical imaging frequencies can cause the virus' shell and spikes to collapse and rupture, Science Daily, www.sciencedaily.com COVID-19 Protective Behaviors are Forms of Prosocial and Unselfish Behaviors, Frontiers on COVID19, www.frontiersin.org UK researchers identify inflammatory protein linked to severe COVID-19, Imperial College London, www.imperial.ac.uk What’s Ahead in the Second Year of COVID-19?, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu COVID Killed the Traditional Workplace. What Should Companies Do Now?, Harvard Business School Working Knowledge, hbswk.hbs.edu

2. New Variants Humanity’s Historic Test, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org

6. Developing and Distributing Vaccines

Vaccines alone may not be enough to end pandemic, Science Daily, www.sciencedaily.com Vaccines Can Mend US-EU Ties, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org How Many of America’s Coronavirus Deaths Were Unnecessary?, Harvard Kennedy School - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, www.belfercenter.org How Economic Recovery Hinges on the Vaccine Rollout, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu What the Coronavirus Variants Mean for the End of the Pandemic, The New Yorker, www.newyorker.com How well does the AstraZeneca vaccine work? An expert reviews the current evidence, The Conversation, theconversation.com

Appropriate names for COVID-19 variants, Science, science.sciencemag.org How Europe’s vaccine caution can cost lives, The Economist, www.economist.com Emergence of Bat-Related Betacoronaviruses: Hazard and Risks, Frontiers on COVID19, www.frontiersin.org COVID-19 Has Led To An Uptick In Anti-Asian Racism, FiveThirtyEight, fivethirtyeight.com A Moral Failure in Pandemic Response, Center for Global Development, www.cgdev.org Racial and ethnic minorities, older adults underrepresented in U.S. vaccine trials over the past decade, Harvard Kennedy School – Journalist’s Resource, journalistsresource.org Genomics study identifies routes of transmission of coronavirus in care homes, Science Daily, www.sciencedaily.com

3. The Media’s Role During COVID-19 So You’re Vaccinated Against Covid. Now What?, Kaiser Health News, khn.org Vaccine Strains, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org

Acknowledgements Cover and selected images throughout supplied by Reuters.

Still Neglected and Still Not Gone: The Implications of COVID-19 for the WHO Policy of Elimination of Congenital Syphilis, Center for Global Development, www.cgdev.org Misinformation as Motivated Reasoning: Experimental Evidence , Harvard Kennedy School - Shorenstein Center, shorensteincenter.org Keeping Workers Safe: What Do the Numbers Say?, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu Requiring vaccine passports for certain activities: discrimination or behavioural change?, LSE Business Review, blogs.lse.ac.uk

Some URLs have been shortened for readability. Please follow the URL given to visit the source of the article. A full URL can be provided on request.

4. COVID-19, Seasonality and Weather The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness, Vox LACEA, www.economist.com Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible, Nature, www.nature.com To make vaccinations programs work, communication is key, Asian Development Bank, blogs.adb.org How covid-19 is boosting innovation , The Economist, www.youtube.com US vaccine rollout must solve challenges of equity and hesitancy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, www.piie.com Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Health and Economic Impacts of the Covid-19 Epidemic, Frontiers, www.frontiersin.org Will Schumpeter catch COVID-19? Evidence from France, VoxEU, voxeu.org

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23 COVID-19 Briefing, March 2021

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