First City, Future Forward
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the County’s projected growth would be about 22 percent.
TOTAL HOUSING UNITS BY SCENARIO 2020-2040 CITY OF LEAVENWORTH
The “low” projection assumes that the City’s share of the County will continue to decline at the same rate as since 2000. The City’s population would not change, and its share of the county would decline from 44 percent in 2019 to 35 percent in 2040.
Housing Count Trends These projections assume a similar vacancy rate as currently. The vacancy rate was estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau to be 11.2% in 2019, up slightly from 10.9% in 2010. These are relatively high vacancy rates, however, so some of the projected housing needs might be met by occupying more of the existing housing or removing some of the existing housing. Housing demand projections consider overall population projections and trends in persons per household unit (PPHU) figures - total population divided by the total number of housing units. - for Leavenworth, Leavenworth County, and the State of Kansas. The PPHU averages 1.42 during the 2020s and 1.46 in the 2030s. The latest (2019) estimate of PPHU for the City is 2.61, up from 2.54 in 2010. In other words, new households in Leavenworth would be smaller than today, but getting a little larger over time. PROJECTED HOUSING ADDITIONS BY SCENARIO 2020-2040 CITY OF LEAVENWORTH
Source: Saint Louis University
INSIGHT: Housing Units The number of housing In Leavenworth Increased only slightly from 2010 to 218. Singlefamily detached and attached accounts for 79 percent of Leavenworth’s housing stock, according to the 2018 American Community Survey. Multifamily housing makes up 20 percent of housing stock, and mobile homes account for one percent.
HOUSING UNITS 2010 ACS
2018 ACS
47%
45%
6,415
6,288
42%
44%
5,815
6,152
OWNER OCCUPIED
RENTER OCCUPIED
11% 1,499 5.9 8.8
Occupancy
VACANT
11%
1,460
HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATE RENTAL VACANCY RATE
3.1 7.0
Source: ACS, 2010
Occupancy remained the same at and 2018 11 percent from 2010 and 2018. Owner-occupied housing accounts for 45 percent of Leavenworth’s housing units, a slight decrease since 2010. Renter-occupied housing accounts for 44 percent, an increase of two percent since 2010. HOUSING UNITS BY STRUCTURE 2018 ACS
2010 ACS TOTAL HOUSING UNITS 13,729
Source: Saint Louis University
Assuming no change in the current vacancy rate, the high growth scenario would require about 17,700 more housing units in Leavenworth over the next two decades. The middle growth scenario would require about 6,300 more units. The low growth scenario would require a reduction of about 130 housing units.
65.3% 8,962 12.1% 1,665
TOTAL HOUSING UNITS 13,900
Single-Family Detached Duplex or Townhome
9,401 67.6% 1,557 11.3%
Multi-Family
2.7% 6.4% 5.7% 2.4% 3.8% 1.6% 0%
377 873 779 335 520 218 0
2 units 3 to 4 units 5 to 9 units 10 to 19 units 20+ units Mobile Homes Boat, RV, Van, Etc.
632 708 749 346 400 80 7
4.5% 5.1% 5.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Source: ACS, 2010 and 2018