Automotive Megatrends Magazine - Q4 2017

AUTOMOTIVE MEGATRENDS

MAGAZINE

THE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ISSUE

Q4

2017

Informing the decisions of automotive industry stakeholders since 1992. http://automotiveworld.com

Welcome... ...to the Q4 2017 issue of Automotive Megatrends Magazine.

With OEMs facing ever more stringent emissions regulations, cities seeking to improve air quality, the mainstream media with a newfound enthusiasm for powertrain technology and consumers keen to drive cleaner vehicles, electrification is going mainstream.

Perhaps more significant than the electrification of passenger cars is the electrification of heavy duty trucking, and the race is on between Nikola Motors, Tesla and the legacy OEMs to bring a viable electric truck to market.

The megatrends shaping the auto industry of the future are many and varied. However, whether autonomous, connected, shared or privately owned, vehicles still need to be powered, and electrification looks to be inevitable. The industry can, and will, make it happen – but can it do it viably?

Martin Kahl, Editor www.automotivemegatrends.com

Welcome

Automotive Megatrends Magazine ISSN: 2053 776X Publisher: Automotive Megatrends Ltd 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth CF64 2AD, UK www.automotivemegatrends.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 support@automotivemegatrends.com Registered number: 08000516 VAT number: GB 171 5423 23 Managing Director: Gareth Davies Editor: Martin Kahl Contributors: Brett Smith Freddie Holmes Megan Lampinen Michael Nash Oliver Dixon Xavier Boucherat Production: Anmol Mothy

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Contents

ACE - the partnership that changes mobility?

16

26

20 32

Global auto industry faces disruption – and a rude awakening

From concept to reality: the nextgeneration of EVs

Trucking’s long haul to electrification

Speed up the process - the rise of fast charging

8

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

36

Contents

40 48

44

The cockpit of the future: intelligent, powerful and feature-rich

52

Smart cities and the vehicle ownership shift

59

Electrified and on-demand – taxis take on the mobility services

Automotive engineers – skill up to keep up!

66

Smart parking will free up space – and time – in the city of tomorrow

Could life-cycle assessments take the focus off the tail-pipe?

The Tesla Semi – powered by disruption

From plug-in cars to plug-in homes – EV batteries get a second life

Collision-free, emission-free driving - no zero-sum game

Steel giant on a mission to cut emissions

www.automotivemegatrends.com

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DEEP LEARNING

The auto industry's future is ACE

ACE - the partnership that changes mobility?

‘Change unprecedented’ faces the global auto industry as OEMs become ACE automated, connected and electrified. By Brett Smith, Assistant Director at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR)

V

trends

can exist without the other, but can

battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2015,

often include unpredictable

with a partnership of automated,

connected technologies could be an

ehicle

technology

usually happen very slowly and

innovation. To truly succeed, a variety

of often seemingly unrelated inputs

they fulfill their loftiest expectations connected and electric (ACE)?

it was argued that automated and important asset in making it happen.

are required. Connecting the dots

As gas prices skyrocketed a decade

Flash forward a decade, and CAV

forwards,

assistance,

great thing. They bring the opportunity

looking backwards is easy. As we look can

we

connect

the

connected, automated and electric

vehicle technology dots to drive a new vehicle paradigm?

The question for consideration is: are they becoming one and the same? Is connected and automated vehicle

(CAV) technology reliant upon full

ago,

those

working and

on

early

driver CAV

technologies scrambled to position their technologies as a means to more

efficient

driving.

Whether

through route planning, or reduction in crashes and thus more efficient

traffic flow, reduced emissions and increased

fuel

economy,

CAV

technologies were positioned as an

electrification, and is full electrification

important tool for a more efficient

technologies to gain most complete

candidate at the time envisioned,

reliant upon automated and connected

acceptance? Clearly, both technologies

12

vehicle.

If,

as

one

presidential

there were going to be a million

technologies have become the next

to massively reduce automotive-related deaths

and

injury,

potentially

democratise mobility, and even bring

about a new way of thinking about the automobile. Many advanced powertrain

discussions now include automated and connected as a foundation part of

the messaging. CAV technologies are

front and centre in changing the way consumers view the future of the

automobile. No longer is CAV playing

second fiddle to electrification – in

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The auto industry's future is ACE

Is connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology reliant upon full electrification, and is full electrification reliant upon automated and connected technologies to gain most complete acceptance?

many ways, it has become an equal

From a market position opportunity,

the smart vision EQ fortwo concept

automotive pathways.

garner some of the hype and have

our vision of future urban mobility; it is

partner in any discussion of future

made ACE the vision for market

Blurred vision Tesla

is

also

the

seen

as

a

success. Volkswagen is proactively leader

in

deployment of electric vehicles. It is most

many companies are attempting to

aggressive

in

implementing conditional automated driving technologies. This combination

of real and perceived technology leadership has given Tesla a unique marketing position, and unmatched real-world learnings from conditional

automated driving. Certainly Tesla has

positioning the I.D. Buzz – the OEM’s reimagining of the VW microbus – as an

automated, connected and electric

game-changer for the company. It

serves as the company’s star candidate

comprehensively personalisable and, of course, electric". The two visions of CAV and BEV are becoming one.

automated technology for on-road

that a vehicle based on the I.D. Buzz will go into production in 2022.

blurring

www.automotivemegatrends.com

communication capabilities, friendly,

Currently a concept, VW has confirmed

react to the technology innovations.

leveraging regulatory credits, creating a foundation for change.

of all: fully autonomous, with maximum

Meanwhile, General Motors recently

Smart Chief Executive Annette Winkler

buzz, and maybe even laying the

the most radical car sharing concept car

for testing how the consumer might

struggled to deliver profits, but it has been phenomenal in delivering a vision,

vehicle: “The smart vision EQ Fortwo is

may have best summed up the of

previously

distinct

connected, automated and electric

technologies during her introduction of

built

130

Chevrolet

Bolts

with

testing. The Bolt has also been placed into service for Maven, GM’s car-sharing

programme.

conditional

automated

While

Cadillac is clearly GM’s point for

driving

technologies, the fully electric Bolt is serving as its showcase for testing fully-automated driving.

13

The auto industry's future is ACE

CAVs are ACE

term

and Lyft are also playing at the nexus

other factors will limit early adoption.

Ride-hailing companies such as Uber of ACE. For these business models, the opportunity for real cost savings comes

from getting rid of the driver. Once the

progression.

Realistically,

inductive charging is not a massmarket near-term solution. Cost and

However, it will likely be an enabling part of a successful ACE rollout.

need for a driver is eliminated, the

The interaction between automated

that, electric vehicles seem to have a

than merely marketing. Increasingly,

vehicle will have to charge itself. For more viable pathway. Companies such as Qualcomm, Plugless Power, and

others are working to develop and deliver inductive charging which may enable cars to recharge without driver intervention.

The early choice for inductive charging is generally 3.36 kW, with most usage for residential charging. However, 6.6

kW inductive charging, delivering the ability to charge larger long-range batteries overnight, is a likely near-

Source: Tesla Motors

14

and connected, and electric is more

manufacturers are moving engine and driveline accessories off the

basis for their demonstration efforts.

The Prius already has drive-by-wire and other electric accessories.

The move to fully electric may also

fundamentally change vehicle design.

Removing the gasoline engine from

the vehicle, and replacing it with electric

motors

gives

designers

enormous freedom. Removing the steering wheel amplifies that freedom.

alternator and replacing them with

New entrants

Whether

throttle

The development of ACE technology is

accessories, electrically-driven devices

hopeful new-entrants – into the game.

electric

motor-driven

steer-by-wire,

“

devices.

by wire, or water pumps and other may

create

more

freedom

for

automated vehicle implementation, offering

yet

another

symbiotic

relationship for ACE. It is not a coincidence

that

many

start-up

companies have used the Prius as the

also bringing new entrants – or at least The relative simplicity of the electric vehicle platform allows those that may not

have

longstanding

vehicle

engineering capabilities to get in on the game. Start-ups and consumer electronics companies from Silicon

Tesla is seen as a leader in deployment of electric vehicles. It is also the most aggressive in implementing conditional automated driving technologies. This combination of real and perceived technology leadership has given Tesla a unique marketing position, and unmatched real-world learnings from conditional automated driving Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The auto industry's future is ACE

The development of ACE technology is also bringing new entrants – or at least hopeful new-entrants – into the game. The relative simplicity of the electric vehicle platform allows those that may not have longstanding vehicle engineering capabilities to get in on the game

Valley, China and elsewhere have

passionate about could successfully

discussion – some of which have

Clearly,

entered the vehicle manufacturing

strong engineering resources and

intriguing business models, while others may not yet have defined a business

case

or

identified

a

differentiator. Google (then subsidiary Waymo) has been the leader in developing and testing automated

transition to an ACE vehicle giant.

Apple’s

ACE

vision

has

changed, as many of its development team have moved on to Zoox, a start-

up focused on the ACE shuttle service

model. However, Apple may still prove to be a strong ACE player in the coming years.

vehicles, first with converted Toyota

There is, at least, one very important

fleet of specially built BEVs, and now

are adding cost to vehicles. With the

Prius vehicles, then with its own small with partner vehicles. For a while,

Apple was seen as the next big

entrant; it seemed only logical that a company with that much money and an

uncanny

ability

to

develop

electronic products that people are

www.automotivemegatrends.com

mid-term negative: ACE technologies

price of a vehicle in the US around US$37,500 in the summer of 2017, new vehicle affordability is a major

concern. Adding ACE technology is likely to markedly increase prices even further, at least in the short term.

ACE will dominate

Widely quoted Stanford University

professor Tony Seba predicts ACE will

dominate

within

the

next

decade, and even eliminate the sale of internal combustion engines

by 2030. Seba opines that the two

technologies

will

redefine

transportation, and the automotive

industry by 2030. While this may include

an

element

of

futurist

hyperbole, the point is intriguing.

Individually

automated

and

connected vehicles, and electric

vehicles are rapidly advancing to change the industry. Combined, ACE presents

what

unprecedented.

may

be

change

15

The auto industry of 2030

Global auto industry faces disruption – and a rude awakening Megan Lampinen talks to Tony Seba, co-author of ‘Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030’, about imminent and inevitable disruption in the global automotive industry

A

utonomous, shared and electric

co-authored by Tony Seba and James

passenger transportation of the

transportation as a service (TaaS),

– that’s the winning formula for

future, according to RethinkX. But the

independent think tank is not talking about a distant future: it predicts that

by 2030, 95% of US passenger miles travelled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles (EVs) owned by fleets.

RethinkX has conducted exhaustive

this

autonomous

combination

drive

and

of

electric

propulsion will offer the cheapest

transportation option by far. Just

using TaaS alone, says RethinkX, will save the average American family

more than US$5,600 per year in transportation costs, leading to a boom in consumer spending.

analysis of data along with market,

"The

using well-established cost curves

will essentially become ten times

consumer and regulatory dynamics, and

assuming

technology.

Unlike

only

many

existing other

models, however, the analysts claim that this approach incorporates

systems dynamics that better

reflect the reality of fast-paced technology-adoption S-curves.

On the whole, it makes for a

economics

mean

that

on-

demand electric autonomous vehicles cheaper than owning a vehicle," insists

Tony Seba, one of the founders of

RethinkX and an expert on disruptive technologies.

"This

will

make

economic sense as much in India as in

Africa as in the US as in Europe. This is a global disruption."

wild ride that will end with

When RethinkX says the future will be

unrecognisable from today.

hybrid or extended-range hybrid.

a new paradigm almost

What makes RethinkX so

confident in its vision is that

it is based on an economics-driven

revolution. According to the numbers, laid out in the May 2017 report

‘Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030’

16

Arbib,

‘electric’ it means fully electric, not “Hybrids don't count,” Seba tells

Megatrends. “Hybrids are an extension of the internal combustion engine (ICE) and when you do the numbers,

the technology doesn't pan out. When you do the numbers for on-demand

autonomous EVs versus on-demand

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The auto industry of 2030

On-demand electric autonomous vehicles will essentially become ten times cheaper than owning a vehicle. This will make economic sense as much in India as in Africa as in the US as in Europe. This is a global disruption

autonomous ICEs, essentially the economics of EVs overwhelm the economics of ICEs.”

ACE will replace ICE The

main

element

that

Consumer Choices: cost-per-mile 9 analysis Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, Your Mechanic, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and uSwitch. See Appendix A for further details on the methodology

most

mainstream analysts and experts have

overlooked,

according

to

RethinkX, is the vehicle lifetime difference between an ICE model and

an EV. The former may last between

140,000 and 200,000 miles today, compared to 500,000 miles for an EV.

By 2030, an EV's lifetime could rocket

to 1 million miles. While nobody

today is taking advantage of this sort of EV mileage, that’s only because

most vehicles are individually owned.

This is where the TaaS part of the equation kicks in.

“We drive about 10,000 miles a year,

but when cars are owned by a fleet,

“Much of the conversation about EVs

This combination will result in EVs

Seba points out. Utilisation rates of

the purchase price, but that assumes

half to three times cheaper than

such as Uber or Lyft, that will rise,” individual owners average around

4%, meaning the vehicle sits unused for 96% of the time. Uber and Lyft

can up the utilisation rate to about 40% or even more. “When you do that, you can drive a car 100,000

miles per year as opposed to 10,000 miles per year,” he adds. Over five years, therefore, an EV could cover 500,000 miles.

www.automotivemegatrends.com

versus ICE vehicles has been about

individual ownership, that assumes

that you can't drive it 500,000 miles. If

you could, that parity in purchase price goes away because over 500,000

that are anywhere from two and a

autonomous on-demand ICE vehicles.

“That's why it's going to be all EV,” he emphasised.

miles you need just one EV,” Seba

Famous last words

cost savings on maintenance and

The revolution playing out brings big

autonomous

costs and high expectations for return

argues. On top of this, EVs also bring fuelling on a per mile basis. When the card

is

added

insurance costs should go down.

in,

risks for incumbents, with hefty sunk on investment. “Disruption usually

17

“

The auto industry of 2030

The Chinese are accepting that the whole world of cars is going to be electrified, and very soon. If you're not fully electric by 2020, essentially you're out

happens from the outside. Kodak did

German OEMs, for instance, have

never in history have so many pictures

companies that did it. Newspapers did

this effect. Meanwhile, Mazda doesn't

last words. Kodak invented digital

not disrupt itself; it was other

not disrupt themselves; it was web companies – the Googles and the Facebooks,” noted Seba.

He suggests that the current leading players will remain in denial of the revolution to their own detriment.

recently come out with statements to even offer a single electric vehicle.

Instead, it has been investing heavily in the development of homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI)

technology. All are in for a rude awakening, believes Seba.

While most OEMs offer some form of

"If you look at Kodak's annual report

still backing the near-term viability of

gushes about how this has been a

electrification in their fleet, many are

gasoline and diesel. Most of the

been printed," says Seba. "Famous

cameras, it knew the technology, it had 1,000 patents. Basically it was addicted to the cash flow from the existing business. It's very hard once

you become so good at one thing to

even admit that change is going to happen very quickly."

in the year 2000, the Chief Executive

One group that stands out as relatively

record year in visual imaging and

companies. Volvo Car may have

quick

adaptors

are

the

Chinese

grabbed headlines with its plans to electrify, to some extent, its full range

12

Sources: Authors’ calculations. For further details see Appendix A

by 2019, but that momentum came from its Chinese parent company

Geely. "It is Geely, not Volvo, that comes into this without the decades of

culture of internal combustion engines.

Geely is the one that sees the market as it is and not as it wishes it would be," observes Seba. "The Chinese are

accepting that the whole world of cars is going to be electrified, and very

soon. If you're not fully electric by 2020, essentially you're out."

Emotional pushback, upwards revisions

The modelling analysis published by RethinkX

entails

some

stark

consequences for most of today's

players across the industry. Their

reactions are telling: "Since the report

came out, everybody's predictions of

18

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The auto industry of 2030

The upside of this is tremendous but on the other hand, we are going to have unemployment and it will happen very quickly.

We need to prepare on a societal basis and have some sort of financial support and retraining for those folks whose jobs are not coming back

EV growth over the next few decades

"The pushback that I have seen is

And the disruption that Seba and his

denying the disruption," notes Seba.

'this number doesn't make sense' or

savings of a transportation model

have gone up, even those who are "Volkswagen is still denying it but the company has since said it would increase investment in electrification

by 33%. The oil industry also sees it coming." In mid-2017, OPEC boosted

its forecast for EV sales by 500% compared to last year. Upward revisions in the analyst community have averaged between 50% and 60%.

emotional. Nobody has actually said

'these figures don't add up'," he observes. "I expected more pushback,

but it's all about the economics. We

are not making an argument based

on climate subsidies or pollution. The pushback I have seen has been

emotional, along the lines of 'we love our car' or 'it can't happen this

quickly'. That's normal in disruption."

team predict is huge. The cost based

on

electric,

shared

and

autonomous will play out across the wider economy. "The average family

saving is US$5,600, but on an aggregate level in the US, for

instance, that's an extra US$1tr in cash in the pockets of consumers,"

he emphasises. "That is a huge

addition to the economy. When you take into account that we are not going to drive - and we waste billions

Upfront cost comparison of electric and gasoline vehicles to 2030 Sources: Authors’ calculations, Edmunds, Tony Seba and U.S. Department of Energy

of hours driving - we can do other things. That contributes another US$1tr to GDP." That makes for a

total estimated US$2tr addition to

GDP in the US alone. Transpose the RethinkX calculations to Europe and

beyond, as this will surely prove a global

phenomenon,

implications are huge.

and

the

There's a sobering side to these

developments, however. "The upside of this is tremendous but on the

other hand, we are going to have unemployment and it will happen

very quickly," Seba warns. This will impact drivers, dealers, repairers,

etc. "Those jobs are going. We need

to prepare on a societal basis and

have some sort of financial support and retraining for those folks whose jobs are not coming back."

www.automotivemegatrends.com

19

EV concept cars

From concept to reality: the next-generation of EVs At Europe’s biggest car show, Europe’s biggest OEM made the industry’s biggest commitment to EVs. VW isn’t alone in promoting electrification, however: in 2017, almost every OEM committed to an EV programme.

Michael Nash looks at some of the industry’s big EV projects

G

o EV or go home – that’s the

With a relatively limited range of plug-

backed up by technical specifications

world’s largest car market. And

very little in the way of readily

for the concept to appear one or two

only way to do business in the

it’s becoming increasingly clear that it’s

the only way to do business in the major vehicle markets other than China, too, with a growing number of

city authorities, and national and regional

governments

openly

considering restricting or banning

vehicles with internal combustion engines.

Couple

that

with

in product on dealer forecourts, and

available plug-in cars at the 2017 Frankfurt international motor show (IAA), one of the world’s largest car

shows, it is to the concept cars that

one must look to understand what vehicle manufacturers have planned to back up their EV pronouncements.

and performance data. It’s common years later as a production model, and indeed some manufacturers

have begun adopting terms such as ‘preproduction car’ to indicate how close to launch a concept car – or at

least its underlying technology – might be.

the

No longer the outrageous headline

And the significance of all this? Simple:

in powertrain technology and a growing

concept cars now are built primarily

near

mainstream media’s newfound interest

public acceptance of electric vehicles

(EVs), and the scene is set for a new generation of vehicle electrification.

20

grabbing designs they once were, to gauge public and media reaction.

They’re

produced

to

a

budget,

launched like production cars, and

2017 will go down as the year of the concept

production-ready car,

ahead

of

electric

a

new

generation of EVs that will appear from 2019.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

EV concept cars

Dr. Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management of the Volkswagen Passenger Cars brand, presents the new I.D. CROZZ and I.D. BUZZ at the 2017 IAA

German concepts

Executives at the Group have outlined

so before he would be forced to step

while the brands haven’t

In September 2015, just a fortnight or down as Chief Executive of the Volkswagen Group in the wake of the Dieselgate

revelations,

Martin

Winterkorn stood on stage at the IAA

and announced a commitment to launch 20 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2020.

Fast forward two years, to the 2017

their intentions to plough more money into e-mobility, and

(500km) – a figure based on tests using the New European

production

Drive Cycle (NEDC).

models

since the scandal broke,

numerous

concept cars have

been unveiled with electric

propulsion

systems at the core.

Apt, then, that the I.D. Crozz

and on-going, at Group level and

2017 Frankfurt Motor Show stand. An

across its broad portfolio of brands.

an estimated range of 311 miles

launched many new

IAA, and the change that the company

has been forced to undergo is clear

production in 2020, the I.D. Crozz has

should take centre stage on the VW’s SUV

concept

expected

to

reach

VW

Chief

Executive Herbert Diess

told

press

that the I.D. Crozz

would be an important part

of the company’s investment in electrification: Brand

will

be

“The

Volkswagen

investing

€6bn

(US$7.18bn) in electric mobility over

the next five years. Our task is to

make modern technology available to many people.”

Under ‘Roadmap E’, the VW Group will

launch 80 new electric vehicles by

At the 2017 IAA, VW Group committed to launching 80 new EVs by 2025

www.automotivemegatrends.com

2025, invest over €20bn ‘for the industrialization of e-mobility’, and

21

EV concept cars

Audi’s Rupert Stadler with the Elaine and Aicon concept cars at the 2017 IAA begin a €50bn sourcing strategy to

support what it anticipates to be an annual demand for 150 gigawatt hours of Li-ion battery capacity for its own fleet alone.

Audi’s

close-to-production

Elaine

electric SUV has a 311 mile range; the OEM has also developed the Aicon, a

futuristic autonomous EV concept that boasts a 497 mile range and can be charged to 80% in 30 minutes.

Skoda

unveiled

its

first

electric

concept car at the 2017 Shanghai

Skoda’s Vision E concept uses Volkswagen Group’s MEB platform, which also underpins the VW I.D. Crozz concept

show. The Vision E is an all-wheel drive (AWD) model that uses two electric

motors to produce 225kWh; it has a range of 310 miles, and like the Aicon,

can be charged to 80% in 30 minutes.

The

model

is

based

on

the

Volkswagen Group’s MEB platform,

which is also used for the I.D. Crozz concept. The similarities between the

Skoda and VW concepts, and the unconcealed

platform

sharing

employed for two close-to-production concepts is highly indicative of plans

for production cars based on these concepts.

22

Daimler will launch 10 new EQ-branded EVs by 2022. The first model, EQC, is due to go into production at Mercedes-Benz Bremen in 2019.

Pictured: EQA premiere at the 2017 IAA

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

EV concept cars

Is the BMW i Vision Dynamics concept the precursor to the i5?

With the VW Group making so much

axle and one on the rear, powered by

concept equipped with autonomous

lose sight of what the other German

supplied

between the i3 and i8, the four-door i

noise about electrification, it’s easy to OEMs have planned.

lithium-ion batteries with pouch cells by

Daimler

Deutsche Accumotive.

subsidiary

The EQA concept offers a strong hint

BMW, which already has a dedicated

it works towards offering electrified

other electrified offerings, debuted a

at what Mercedes-Benz has in mind as versions of all of its cars by 2022. The EQA concept has a 250-mile range and

comes equipped with two electric motors, one positioned on the front

driving

technology.

Positioned

Vision Dynamics concept is widely believed to be the precursor to the i5.

BEV in the form of the i3, along with

Making a statement

design concept for its electric Mini at

The changes forced upon VW have

in 2019. BMW also unveiled the i Vision

globally as well as in Europe.

Frankfurt, with a production model due Dynamics concept – another electric

impacted the industry as a whole, One of the biggest surprises at the IAA

and in the wider electrification story was Honda’s showstopping Urban EV

concept. Ikuo Takeishi, Operating Officer

and

Head

of

Functional

Development in Powertrains at Honda, told Megatrends that the Urban EV

concept would be the basis for a production car arriving in Europe in 2019. The OEM expects electrified

vehicles to account for two thirds of its European sales by 2025, and two thirds of its global sales by 2030.

Renault was also eager to make a statement with its Symbioz concept

Honda's Urban EV concept hints at a production car for Europe in 2019

www.automotivemegatrends.com

car and demo car. Although similar in appearance,

the

demo

car

23

EV concept cars

By 2022, Groupe Renault will offer eight pure electric vehicles and 12 electrified models. Pictured: Renault Symbioz concept “foreshadows a vehicle” that is set to

The Jaguar will pounce into a crowd:

Mazda chose to reveal details of its

concept looks further ahead to the

Mercedes offerings are likely to be

gasoline engine which delivers diesel-

reach production in 2023, while the 2030 timeframe.

The demo car has a range of 311 miles

in real-world driving conditions on

highways, and the French OEM has promised that it can be charged to

80% in just 20 minutes. “Performance, range and charging times will be

improved by 2030 when a car like Symbioz will take to the roads.”

Edging to production As OEMs seek to place EV product

within a wide open and immature market, it is unsurprising that they should focus on specific segments –

and with compact SUVs proving so lucrative in most major markets, it’s an obvious segment to target.

Jaguar will launch its I-Pace electric SUV in 2018. With a range of 310 miles

and a zero to 60mph time of around

four seconds, the I-Pace has been

described as an important competitor for Tesla and its Model X.

24

the aforementioned VW Group and joined by BMW, Hyundai and Volvo eSUVs, and Ford has promised it will

launch an all-new electric SUV by 2020

as

part

of

a

US$5.2bn

investment in electrified vehicles.

Details are yet to emerge, but the

model will be built at the company’s

Flat Rock plant in Michigan and sold across North America, Europe and Asia. The OEM has also reportedly

next-generation SKYACTIV-X engine, a like

fuel

economy.

Speaking

to

Megatrends from the floor of the Frankfurt Motor Show, Jeff Guyton,

President and Chief Executive of

Mazda Motor Europe, suggested that EVs will only make sense when energy

from the grid comes from a green source,

with

vehicle

emissions

considered on a well-to-wheel basis.

trademarked the Energi moniker

for

electrified versions of

its

Explorer,

Kuga and Transit models.

Out of gas?

With almost every global

vehicle

manufacturer committed

now

to

electrification, Mazda is

a rare exception. Ahead of a

Frankfurt show heavy on EVs,

Mazda's next-generation SKYACTIV-X engine Automotive Megatrends Magazine

EV concept cars

The Jaguar I-Pace electric SUV concept hits the market as a production vehicle in 2018 Guyton

believes

the

internal

combustion engine (ICE) has ahead of

covering a wide variety of vehicle

2020 and 2030, the number of EVs

flexible

CAGR of 46%.

segments and types to ensure

it a long and prosperous future.

Mazda’s current absence in the EV

and

rapid

market trends”.

response

to

on public roads is set to rise at a

strong sense of agreement across the

Rosy expectations

Similarly, a paper published by the

electrification

Numerous forecasts all point in one

surpassed two million units in 2016 –

area might be unusual, but there’s a automotive

industry is

that

necessary

while

and

direction – to growth and a bright

inevitable, the ICE will continue to play

future for EVs. A new report by

a key role for many years to come.

AlixPartners suggests that EV and

plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)

Shortly after the IAA, however,

sales have increased by 168% over

Mazda issued a joint press release

the past two years. These two

with Toyota and Denso announcing

segments could account for around

that the three companies intend “to jointly

develop

basic

40% of all European vehicles sold

structural

each year by 2030, and between

technologies for EVs capable of

Electrification already starting to bite, with EV growth of 168% over last two years

Global Electrification – incremental by quarter

Q1 2015

EV + PHEV Sales (# 000s per quarter)

Q4 2016

No. of EVs

+168%

No. of EVs

93,601

251

206

197 179

% of market

71

0.4

130

117 94

169 km

31

89

52

•

China with more than 50% of globally sold electric kilometres due to high number of electric vehicles offered by local OEMs on the Chinese market

•

US is strongly influenced by success of fully electrified Tesla vehicles, Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan Leaf

•

France with high average range due to high proportion of full EV such as Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf and Renault Kangoo

•

Norway characterized by a blended mix of EV and PHEV across OEMs

251,051

% of market 133

1.0

106

55

24

33

30

36

30

40

48

52

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Americas

EV sales are based on PHEV, FCEV, and EV only. Standard Hybrids are not included – thus average range above 100 km

90

59

40

•

66

50

51

41

44

39

Ave. EV range

137

Insights

Asia

Europe

Sources: I.H.S., EV-volumes.com, AP research

www.automotivemegatrends.com

Ave. EV range 181 km

International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that the global electric car stock

a figure that it expects will grow to somewhere between nine million and

20 million by 2020, and between 40

million and 70 million by 2025. “In the next ten to 20 years the electric car market will likely transition from early deployment

to

adoption,” it reads.

mass

market

To meet these expectations, much

work needs to be done, from sales and

marketing

to

charging

infrastructure and battery technology.

The few concept cars mentioned in this article offer a glimpse of the EV

market of the future, but they alone will

barely

Launched

scratch

as

the

surface.

well

executed

to

influencing

production cars, however, they could go

a

long

way

consumers as they make their way into the market.

25

Electric trucks

Trucking’s long haul to electrification The electric truck has a bright future, but also one that is riddled with challenges, learns Freddie Holmes

‘

The electric truck – it’ll never work’:

both established and new entrants in

really begun to come into focus over the

thought, over the past few years.

opportunity

of technologies such as battery-electric

a phrase many may have heard, or

But the announcements for new products and investments keep on coming,

and

it

is

becoming

increasingly difficult to dispute the concept of zero-emissions trucking.

Commercial vehicles are highly cost

the

market

see

to

this

explore

as

an

new

technologies. OEMs also need to consider

tightening

emissions

regulations in key markets of the US, Europe and China, and a growing

contingent deem electric trucks an answer to both trends.

driven, with the overall price of

Rachel Muncrief, Program Director,

deciding factor when it comes to

Enforcement

running and maintaining a fleet the

purchasing new trucks. Higher unit

costs can generally be offset by lower total cost of ownership (TCO), and

26

Heavy Duty Vehicles and Compliance & at

the

International

Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT),

told Megatrends that “the pathway to decarbonising the freight industry has

past few years.” The commercialisation

trucks, electrified highways and fuel cell trucks is increasing as a result, “and the time until their costs are on par with

traditional diesels is getting closer,” she

suggested. “I believe that governments can

play

an

important

role

in

accelerating the deployment of these

technologies by showing clear signs of their determination to invest in the required

infrastructure,

supporting

demonstration programmes, vehicle efficiency regulations, and more,” Muncrief added.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Electric trucks

“

In five or ten years’ time, I believe it will be hard to find a diesel [truck] model on the road…you won't see people buying new diesels - Trevor Milton, Nikola Motor

Varied approaches

Some OEMs such as Scania have investigated

the

viability

of

connecting trucks to overhead power

lines, while others have pursued battery-electric models. For example,

the Mercedes-Benz Urban eTruck, a

concept launched in 2016, has a

definitely see a lot of electric vehicles

same platform, which uses a ‘near

goods,” he told Megatrends. The OEM

generate electrical power.

when it comes to city distribution of

has already tested various hybrid

Then there is Nikola Motor Company,

for long haul applications.

remain as to whether a battery

how to use an electric range extender

on delivery trucks, and in 2015

partnered with French haulage firm Deret. The French truck brand’s

parent, Volvo Group, has also been

pursuing similar initiatives, and Lars Stenqvist, Chief Technology Officer at Volvo

Group,

sees

scope

for

electrified delivery trucks. “We will

www.automotivemegatrends.com

to

Concept Truck – a hybrid CV designed

and in May 2016 revealed the Volvo

load capacity comparable to that of a Trucks, too, has been investigating

engine

A world of hurt…

And it is long-haul trucking that has

diesel distribution truck. Renault

CNG

delivery trucks for city applications,

reported electric driving range of up

to 200 kilometres (124 miles), with a

zero-emissions’

most interested, although questions

electric vehicle will be able to go the distance

whilst

weighing

up

to

80,000lbs (36,287kg). Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCVs) appear a

which burst onto the scene in 2016 with

ambitions

of

overthrowing

normal order within the trucking industry. Trevor Milton, Chief Executive

and Founder of Nikola, explained that

the ideology behind this electric truck

stemmed from successes seen in the rail freight industry.

more attractive proposition based on

“I grew up driving locomotives, and

currently developing a prototype Class

truck is practically a locomotive,” he

current approaches. Kenworth is 8 tractor that uses a hydrogen fuel cell

to recharge lithium-ion batteries to provide full-electric power. The OEM is

also investigating a CNG hybrid on the

that's where I got the idea that the told Megatrends. “It was all about using

the efficiencies of electric motors,

which have been used on trains for over 50 years, and I knew that I

27

Electric trucks wanted to build a truck that was based on the same thing.”

Enter the Nikola One, a zero emissions

Class 8 semi-truck that can travel 800-

1,200 miles (1,287-1,930km) between stops, depending on factors such as geography and weather. Milton says it

can be refilled with hydrogen within 15 minutes, and believes it outperforms a

diesel competitor in “every aspect” because “it is lighter, stronger, faster and safer.”

Speaking to Megatrends back in May

2017, he noted that the established

industry players, not only on the OEM

side but also within the supply base, need to consider e-mobility as part of

their product line or risk becoming obsolete. “In five or ten years’ time, I

believe it will be hard to find a diesel [truck] model on the road any more,” he mused. Elaborating, he admitted

that while diesel trucks will still be in operation, “you won't see people

buying new diesels,” he said. “If you look into the diesel world, they are in for a world of hurt.”

Today, established truck suppliers such as Cummins would argue otherwise,

Cummins unveiled the Aeos electric Class 7 concept truck in August 2017

Pros and cons

the electric truck over its diesel

(EVs) are less complex to manufacture

complexity and costs, and lower

Generally speaking, electric vehicles than internal combustion engine (ICE)

vehicles, with AlixPartners estimating that EVs require 40% fewer production

hours. This is good news for those looking

to

shake

things

up

–

particularly in a market that will be difficult to budge.

Indeed, Mike Roeth, Executive Director

at the North American Council for

Freight Efficiency (NACFE), suggests that this could be a key advantage held by

competitor. “Benefits might be a much simpler

powertrain,

lowering

maintenance costs overall,” he told

Megatrends. Quieter operation and ease of driving for new truck drivers entering

the industry would be an added plus, considering the nature of the role can

be extremely tiring. With that in mind,

Roeth muses that this could also tie in with plans to launch highly automated

trucks in future. “There might be a

benefit of these newer electric trucks with respect to connectivity and automated operation,” he notes.

particularly since the announcement of

its Aeos electric Class 7 concept truck in August 2017. This truck has a range of around 100 miles on a single charge for

city driving, but can be extended to 300 miles with the help of additional battery

packs. This is a prototype by all means,

but also an indication that electric trucks need to be taken seriously.

Cummins has been making diesel engines for about a century, and for it

to diverge so strongly from what has

made it a success suggests the electric powertrain is more than just

a hedged bet. Cummins does not plan to build trucks itself, however, and

instead will focus on producing full electric powertrains.

28

In May 2017, Peterbilt revealed its battery-electric heavy refuse truck based on the 520 platform Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Electric trucks Nikola Motor’s Milton agreed that the

electric truck heralds benefits not just for the environment, but also for the operator. Because of this, diesel truck

sales will plummet, he suggested.

“They're too expensive to maintain, too

expensive to drive, and diesel fuel is too expensive,” he said. “With our truck, the

driver doesn't have to deal with any of that. Servicing, maintenance, warranty and fuel - everything is included in our

truck. So why would a driver ever buy a diesel again?”

While producing and running the electric truck may be simpler, it will not be cheap. In addition to the high initial costs of batteries and associated power

electronics, Roeth suggests there will be a raft of other challenges to consider.

“Costs will also include a need for charging infrastructure, unknown costs

The Urban eTruck is the first all-electric heavy duty truck, says Mercedes-Benz.

The OEM has said it is aiming to bring the truck to market by 2020

of replacement parts or resale values,

initial growing pains in terms of

vehicles, range of operation and

durability and unique features for

challenges that natural gas trucks had

biggest hurdles to broader adoption

costs to ensure high reliability and drivers

and

maintenance

to

understand,” he explains. The industry

“

will need to consider how to offer additional battery capacity for longer hauls and to counter ‘range anxiety’.

Déjà vu

Experts have drawn parallels to

challenges already seen in the CNG truck segment, which too suffered

infrastructure

and

demand.

“The

with respect to changing the industry might be small compared to those for

electric trucks hauling large weights,

but the benefits might have fleet leaders jumping to this [electric] technology,” observes Roeth.

Steve

Tam,

Columbus, Research,

Vice

President

Indiana-based

told

Megatrends

of

ACT

that

“similar to natural gas powered

incremental cost are two of the

of EV trucks. Driving down the cost

per kWh will be the Holy Grail of the industry.” But the ability to do so will

vary from market to market, he suggests. “Unlike natural gas, North America is not awash with the raw materials

necessary

for

the

production of batteries. Rather, China enjoys that luxury, so energy security remains very much in play as an adoption consideration.”

Similar to natural gas-powered vehicles, range of operation and incremental cost are two of the biggest hurdles to broader adoption of EV trucks.

Driving down the cost per kWh will be the Holy Grail of the industry - Steve Tam, ACT Research

www.automotivemegatrends.com

29

Electric trucks

Battery electrics But what about plug-in variants? Tesla,

which has arguably proven that electric cars are possible with the launch of the Roadster, Model S, Model X and Model

3, is now set to ply its trade with electric HD trucks.

Speaking during the company’s Annual Shareholders Meeting Conference in

June 2017, Chief Executive Elon Musk announced that development of its electric Class 8 semi-truck was gaining traction. “We have shown it to a

number of the organisations that buy heavy-duty trucks, and they all love it,” he told shareholders. “They just want to

know how many can they buy and how soon, and we are getting them closely involved in the design process.”

He also disputed suggestions that an electric powertrain is poorly suited to

long-haul applications. In fact, Musk

“

We will definitely see a lot of electric vehicles when it comes to city distribution of goods - Lars Stenqvist, Volvo Group

described the use of diesel trucks in

and at highway speeds would suggest

example, and questions have been

the unveiling in Los Angeles. However,

rather than long-haul applications.

will reportedly restore 400 miles to the

future as ‘economical suicide’ during a reported 500-mile range under

maximum 80,000lb (36,000kg) load

the truck is aimed at line-hauling Details are vague at the time of

writing; little is known about costs, for

raised about the ‘megacharger’ that

battery in just 30 minutes. Production of the Semi is pencilled in for 2019.

Elon Musk unveiled the Tesla Semi all-electric Class 8 truck at an event in California in November 2017

30

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Electric trucks Peterbilt has also been pushing for a

battery-electric system, and in May 2017 revealed its battery-electric

heavy refuse truck based on the 520

platform. A 300 kWh battery pack allows the truck to operate for up to 65 miles – or eight hours – on a single charge.

Christian Levin, Scania’s Executive

“

Vice President and Head of Sales &

Marketing, added a dose of reality

and caution to the debate, telling Megatrends prior to the unveiling of the Tesla Semi in November: "We are

all curious to see what our friends in

California will do – Tesla – and what they will launch, but we at Scania

know the cost of batteries and

In 2016, Scania announced the opening of the world's first 'electric road', with electric trucks operating in real world conditions, drawing their power from fixed overhead cables

We are curious to see what our friends in California will do – Tesla – and what they will launch, but we at Scania know the cost of batteries and the required energy densities.

It is a very tough equation right now…[battery electric trucks] will be in the future, but it will not happen overnight - Christian Levin, Scania

the required energy densities, as

said. “Currently, there are more than

ourselves. It is a very tough equation

commercial vehicle models available,

we produce battery electric vehicles

right now, but we do it anyway.

[Battery electric trucks] will be in the

future,

but

happen overnight."

it

will

not

looks mightily appealing on paper, if

executed well, and ACT Research’s confident

that

or

electric

hybrid

truck

electrification shows promise. “We are

going to experience revolutionary change at an evolutionary pace,” he

www.automotivemegatrends.com

with lower sales volumes, particularly in the first decade of sales.

half of which are buses.” However, he

Concluding, Tam suggests that there

numerous models available, volumes

diesel trucking, which will want to

conceded

that

while

there

are

remain extremely low, with “only a few

NACFE’s Roeth is similarly optimistic

All things considered, the electric truck is

electric

hundred in operation today.”

Diesel to become a fossil?

Tam

50

for the segment. “As an example of

how we see this emerging, NACFE plans to launch an expert team soon

to analyse these many benefits and

challenges to help the industry consider these new opportunities,” he

noted. Roeth agrees that EV truck

developers will likely have to work

will remain strong competition from

retain top spot for a long as possible.

“Given the frenetic level of interest in EVs, it is safe to assume that the

petroleum industry will not stand idly by

and

watch

transportation concluded,

their

fuel

“making

share

erode,”

of

he

competition

another challenge.” As such, ACT Research expects a “slow progression”

of US electric truck take rates,

potentially achieving as little as 1% of annual sales by 2023.

31

Fast charging

Speed up the process - the rise of fast charging The emergence of high-power charging and greater presence of fast chargers will change EV driver behaviour, says CHAdeMO’s Secretary General Dave Makoto Yoshida. By Xavier Boucherat

W

ith

electric

expected markets

to

in

vehicles

penetrate greater

keeping

the

load

on

infrastructure to a minimum.

power

volumes over the next decade,

But what about those who want the

charging

engine (ICE), capable of driving long

attention is now being turned to infrastructures.

Home

charging and long-term parkingspace

charge

points

over

long-periods could provide a good

solution for those driving a short-tomid distance regular commute, whilst

32

flexibility of an internal combustion distances and making spontaneous trips? And what about environmentally conscious customers who lack the garage or driveway needed to safely charge a vehicle at home?

Dave Makoto Yoshida is the Secretary

General of CHAdeMO, an e-mobility collaboration platform that works to develop

charging

the

CHAdeMO

protocol,

DC

fast

ensuring

compatibility with EVs, and promoting

fast chargers. The group was originally

formed in Japan, a joint enterprise between the country’s major OEMs and Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco).

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Fast charging

A large part of the Japanese population resides in collective buildings, and have difficulty charging at home. As such, the need for charging en route to a destination is higher when compared to other markets

As Yoshida explains, Japan’s dense

CHAdeMO reported 16,500 charge

even with fast charging solutions,

environments meant range anxiety

5,000 in Europe, 2,300 in North America

waiting times unacceptable to most

population

and

crowded

urban

was of particular concern to would-be

passengers. “A large part of the Japanese

population

resides

in

collective buildings, and have difficulty charging at home,” he explains. “As such, the need for charging en route to

a destination is higher when compared to other markets.” Built-up urban areas

all over the world now face the same problem,

particularly

migration continues.

as

urban

Fast charging therefore offers the

potential for so-called destination

charging, and the fast charger market has

subsequently

expanded.

CHAdeMO-approved chargers have

gone worldwide – in 2016, publicly-

available CHAdeMO charge point

installations exceeded 13,500 units worldwide, up by 35% year-on-year. At the time of writing (October 2017),

www.automotivemegatrends.com

points globally, including 7,100 in Japan, and 2,000 in Asia. Excluding China, the technology is compatible with over half

of the global EV market. Whilst the company admits that correlation does

destination charging would still present customers. FCEVs, by contrast, can be refuelled in times comparable with conventional ICE vehicles.

not mean causation, it points to a clear

Yoshida believes that EVs and FCEVs

fast chargers installed, and the number

having complimentary advantages.

relationship between the number of of EVs sold.

Yoshida admits there is now a risk that greater numbers of EVs could arrive on

the roads quicker than stations and

charging spots can be built. Issues have already been reported in Norway, an advanced EV market, and have led to

the rise of ‘queuing anxiety’. As costs

should develop together, with both

“FCEVs are suited for long-range driving because of their high storage

capacity,” he says, “while EVs are far easier to charge. Realistically, given

the status of costs associated with

FCEVs, we expect them and their infrastructure

deployment

to

further out in terms of deadline.”

be

drop however, redundancy at charging

Increased power

easing fears among drivers.

Increasing battery capacity presents a

Some, such as fuel cell electric vehicle

market, because as CHAdeMO points

stations will increase, says Yoshida,

(FCEV) advocates, have argued that

new challenge for the fast charging out, what is considered fast charging

33

Fast charging for 16-24kWh batteries may not prove so effective for 60 kWh batteries. In response,

the company is preparing to deploy its nextgeneration high-power 200kW chargers.

The roll out of these will be slow, says Yoshida. “High battery capacity EVs will be pricey, which will limit their initial number on

the roads,” he says. “Therefore we expect

high-power charge stations to be specifically for pathway charging, and only on strategic locations along core motorways.”

The company will therefore be carefully watching the speed and scale of market take-

up in the segment. The cost of installation and maintenance of fast chargers means

they will by no means supplant standard charger models. In some cases, there is simply no need for them – an office car-

parking space, for example, where a vehicle

might sit all day, could be adequately charged through standard means.

In addition, ‘slow chargers’ may actually make economic sense to some charging service

providers. “Some will intentionally choose slower chargers,” he says, “such as at large

shopping centres where business owners want customers to spend as much time as

possible on the premises. We observe a trend

in Japan of installing semi-fast DC chargers at commercial facilities, which work at around

20kW and cost much less both in terms of operation and installation.”

Changing behaviours The increase in battery capacity is good

news for OEMs in terms of increasing range and addressing the concerns of potential customers, but the subsequent arrival of

high-power charging will also transform EV driver behaviours, says Yoshida. “We will

certainly need high-power charging to charge a battery from zero to full,” he says,

“but bigger batteries mean extended autonomy, which in turn means that EV drivers may only need a small top-up at a

charge point – just enough to get to the next one.”

34

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Fast charging

High battery capacity EVs will be pricey, which will limit their initial number on the roads. Therefore we expect high-power charge stations to be specifically for pathway charging, and only on strategic locations along core motorways

“

Some [providers] will intentionally choose slower chargers, such as at large shopping centres where business owners want customers to spend as much time as possible on the premises. We observe a trend in Japan of installing semi-fast DC chargers at commercial facilities, which work at around 20kW

Diversification of charging behaviours

means that for now, many chargers

will continue to come with both AC

and DC inlets. From a user’s point of view, he says, this makes sense.

Electrification will take place across all kinds of vehicles – from small

commuter cars to large SUVs – and it is unlikely that all vehicles will require high-power charging capability.

Over the longer term, primary charging

at home or at places of work could become wireless, and plug-in chargers

will be used for destination charging only. “When this day comes,” he says,

“having to deal with a large connector with both AC and DC attached will be more cumbersome than convenient.”

And looking further ahead, Yoshida concludes that in several years’ time, it

is possible that inductive charging will become broadly used.

www.automotivemegatrends.com

35

Second-life batteries

From plug-in cars to plug-in homes – EV batteries get a second life Sporting arenas, manufacturing facilities and private homes could all be powered by so-called depleted EV batteries in future second-life applications, learns Freddie Holmes

I

n a world where recyclability has

become a necessity, it seems

counterintuitive to simply discard

something that could still hold a

significant amount of energy. The battery pack used to power an electric vehicle (EV) is a prime example,

and

the

industry

is

investigating how to use, reuse and repurpose old battery packs.

The success of an EV today depends

largely on its capability to drive long

distances on a single charge, and means that the vehicle needs the battery to run as close to optimal

performance as possible. As with

any lithium-ion battery, however, degradation is a factor to consider, as

a result of which there will be a gradual loss of capacity over time.

This could mean that the battery eventually needs to be swapped out

and replaced with a new one,

although it is worth noting that degradation depends on a number of variables such as battery chemistry,

ambient temperature and charging habits.

But

with

the

battery

accounting for a signiďŹ cant proportion

of the overall vehicle cost, what can

Since 2009, Nissan and Sumitomo have been part of a JV called 4R, which aims to reuse, resell, refabricate and recycle lithium-ion batteries 36

manufacturers do to make the most of the technology if discarded?

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Second-life batteries

After reaching the end of its usable life in an EV, there is typically around 80% of useable capacity in the battery, which can then be deployed as separate storage capacity

Milking it

After reaching the end of its usable life in an EV, there is typically around 80%

of useable capacity in the battery, which can then be deployed as separate storage capacity. Homes,

business campuses and even sports arenas can use these batteries as

backup power or to feed in additional energy

when

necessary.

For

consumers and businesses alike, this can mean greater flexibility to meet

“

You can plug a Nissan EV into the grid and at periods of peak demand, the grid can actually tap into the energy that's stored in your vehicle to help stabilise the network and reduce the cost of energy delivery

power demands, a reduced carbon footprint and greater cost savings.

What’s more, these power stations can help to put solar, wind and other

- Ponz Pandikuthira, Nissan Europe

renewable energy sources to more

stability,” and “second life EV batteries

the

on natural elements such as wind and

“congestion relief and load-shifting.”

Manufacturers, there is currently a

efficient use. These power sources rely

sunshine, which fluctuate by season.

can be used by power grids for

Association

of

European

Automotive and Industrial Battery double grid charge for battery storage

By storing this power in a separate

A separate report published by the UK

reliable non-fluctuating source when

a similar opportunity. In combination

Powering up

storage systems could help to create

Reusing, or repurposing EV batteries

energy systems in the world,” it

been put into practice by various

station, it can then be used as a

necessary. A June 2017 report by Berenberg noted that: “As renewable

generation keeps on increasing in the

total generation mix, the inherent intermittency of renewable power continues to adversely affect grid

www.automotivemegatrends.com

National Grid in July 2017 highlighted with

other

approaches,

energy

“one of the most efficient, productive

surmised. However, there are barriers to adoption. According to EUROBAT,

systems in Europe.

is not a new concept, and has already

players both within and outside the automotive industry.

37

Second-life batteries Back

in

November

2016,

the

Amsterdam ArenA, home to the AFC Ajax football team and a major venue

for concerts and events, signed a ten-

year deal with Nissan, Eaton and The

Mobility House to integrate used Leaf EV batteries into its power supply. The idea was to create a separate energy

storage system – dubbed ‘xStorage’ – that could be used to distribute power

to the stadium and surrounding

neighbourhood when necessary. The Mobility House will operate the system.

In September 2017, it was announced that a large energy system with a

minimum capacity of three megawatts would be installed in the arena’s car

park. Due to be completed in the first

Five used Chevrolet Volt batteries, paired with a solar array and two wind turbines, help supply power to the admin offices at GM's Enterprise Data Center

quarter of 2018, this facility will use a

2009, Nissan has also been working

building and parking lot lights. Excess

Leaf batteries to meet the equivalent

part of a joint venture called ‘4R’ to

grid that supplies the Milford Proving

combination of new and used Nissan power needs of ‘a few thousand households’, according to Eaton.

Speaking

to

Pandikuthira,

Megatrends,

Vice

Ponz

President

of

Product Planning at Nissan Europe

“

explained

that

the

OEM

is

investigating how EVs can integrate with

the

society

around

them

more intelligently. “xStorage uses batteries that Nissan manufactures for

residential

household

and

commercial use, and are actually

made out of used, and in some cases, new EV batteries,” he explained. Since

with Japanese supplier Sumitomo as

repurpose lithium-ion batteries that previously powered EVs. General

Motors

too

has

been using Chevrolet Volt batteries for

similar purposes since mid-2015, repurposing first generation batteries at

the

time

when

the

second-

generation Volt was due to enter production. Just five of these batteries can power the lights at GM’s Enterprise

Data Center in Milford, Michigan. The

batteries are used in tandem with onsite solar arrays and wind turbines to

provide all energy needs for the office

Use of energy storage facilities can help alleviate stresses in the system and also reduce the need for additional capex, thus optimising existing infrastructure - Berenberg

38

energy can also be fed back into the Ground campus.

Pablo Valencia, Senior Manager of

Battery Lifecycle Management at GM,

told Megatrends back in August 2015 that

the

OEM

was

focused

on

extending the useful life of battery

systems once they have reached the

end of their useful life in a vehicle. “We think this strategy is more beneficial in

terms of overall economics,” he said, “when you consider that a battery could

be deployed in a secondary use

application for more than ten years beyond the vehicle, depending on use.”

Daimler has made a similar push, and in September 2016 partnered with The

Mobility House to reuse batteries from smart fortwo EVs. In fact, the OEM

constructed a dedicated manufacturing

facility in Lünen, Western Germany to provide 13-megawatt hours (MWh) of

capacity to the German energy market.

The German government is making a

concerted effort to transition the country towards renewable energy, with

targets

for

45%

of

power

consumption to be generated by renewable sources by 2025.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Second-life batteries consumers

In August 2017, Renault and UK storage company E-STOR installed two high power charging points on highways in Belgium and Germany, which leverage used Renault EV batteries for storage capacity

increasingly

faster charging times.

demand

Berenberg reports that batteries can

help to relieve the pressure that public

rapid charging stations could place on

the grid in future. “Use of energy storage facilities can help alleviate

stresses in the system and also reduce the need for additional capex, thus optimising existing infrastructure,” it said in the June 2017 report.

In August 2017, for example, Renault

and UK-based energy storage company E-STOR

The possibilities are (nearly) endless It’s

not

just

large

commercial

ventures in the running for EV batteries, but everyday households

as well. Nissan’s xStorage system can also be integrated into a domestic

to help stabilise the network and

reduce the cost of energy delivery,” explained

Nissan’s

Pandikuthira.

Renault EV batteries for storage capacity.

your house, and then it can be used

an EV, it is clear that the opportunities

to charge an electric vehicle.”

Building and upgrading charging

energy that's stored in your vehicle

and Germany, which leverage used

While there is significant investment

can store it in an xStorage unit in

“You can plug a Nissan EV into the

the grid can actually tap into the

high-power

“When energy is less expensive, you

Then there is the opportunity to use

grid and at periods of peak demand,

two

charging points on highways in Belgium

setting in combination with an

existing electric vehicle, for example.

installed

old batteries to help charge new EVs. infrastructure is deemed a top

priority for most markets that have already

invested

in

EVs,

and

into optimising batteries for use within to leverage its remaining capacity once

outside of the vehicle are vast. Could

the battery-powered car be built at a battery-powered factory, and driven to a battery-powered home where it is

then partially charged by old EV batteries? Maybe not now, but longer term, why not?

In October 2017, Daimler, Mercedes-Benz Energy and Enercity pressed the switch on their jointly-developed mass storage unit, comprising EV battery modules later to be used in the 3rd-gen smart fortwo EV. The 17.4 MWh accumulator will be completed in early 2018

www.automotivemegatrends.com

39

Cockpit of the future

The cockpit of the future: intelligent, powerful and feature-rich Michael Nash talks to Marques McCammon of Wind River about imminent changes and technological developments in vehicle cabins

P

icture the car of the future and

there are several focus areas that

‘connected’ spring instantly to

made possible.

the words ‘autonomous’ and

mind. On the inside, the cabin

must be addressed before it can be

resembles something straight out of a

First things first

screens, intuitive lighting to match the

“Our Connected Vehicles business unit

features that ease the pain of a

worldwide and we provide software

“

sci-fi movie – highly futuristic, with flat user’s mood and a whole host of morning commute.

This vision is some way off, however,

and according to Marques McCammon,

General Manager of Connected

Vehicle Solutions at Wind River,

represents

about

400

people

development and integration services as well as software products to enable

and accelerate connected vehicle

solutions,” McCammon explained to Megatrends. “So, we look at practically all use cases from Cloud connectivity

Every time a driver selects an option for music or radio, algorithms and AI could be used to ensure that the vehicle learns and provides recommendations at a later date

40

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Cockpit of the future

The industry has been focusing on bringing these infotainment systems into the cabin for several years. The work now is focusing on anticipating the experiences that are needed inside the cabin, and paying close attention to improving the user interface

in

the

cabin,

to

telematics,

to

wherever the future of the connected vehicle will go next.”

Most new vehicles on the market today

include

some

form

of

connectivity, regardless of segment or

advanced driver assistance systems

could be used to ensure that the

OEMs when it comes to introducing

recommendations at a later date.

(ADAS). Another key focus area for features

that

enhance

user

experience is artificial intelligence (AI).

Using the brain

price point, and certain features that

There’s a common theme shared by

luxury

succeeded with their user interfaces,

were previously exclusive to high-end vehicles

are

now

being

introduced to cheaper models. The

Suzuki Ignis, for example, costs around US$13,500 and comes with an array of technologies. A small touchscreen

mounted on the dashboard allows the user to access navigation, digital radio

and music streaming. It even displays the image obtained by a rear-facing camera to aid reversing.

“The industry has been focusing on

bringing these infotainment systems into the cabin for several years,”

McCammon noted. “The work now is focusing

on

anticipating

the

experiences that are needed inside the cabin, and paying close attention

the technology companies that have namely that “they have all deployed

growing

array

of

www.automotivemegatrends.com

This is a very simple example, but the general idea is that the cabin is

intuitive and creates a unique, customised environment to suit

the user. This kind of added value is

an

absolute

must

automotive industry.”

for

the

returning to his or her preferred

more interesting experience for the consumer.”

He cited Google’s PageRank (PR) algorithm as an example; this works

by counting the number of links to a page to determine a rough estimate of

how important the website is, and

as identifying the current driver and

seating position. The addition of new connected

car

features,

ADAS,

autonomous driving technologies

and AI could add much more value for the consumer, but may also require a considerable increase in computing power.

how useful it will be to the consumer

The power game

other algorithms, but this was the first

“Sophisticated computers need the

based on the search. Google uses to be adopted by the company.

experience, McCammon suggested.

a

provides

are used to drive a more efficient and

McCammon observed. “Algorithms

This will lead to the introduction of with

and

There will be other uses for AI, such

Deploying such algorithms in a

along

learns

some level of AI or machine learning,”

to improving the user interface.”

more connected car technologies,

vehicle

vehicle cabin could change the user “Every time a driver selects an option for music or radio, algorithms and AI

ability to deal with information and data that not only lives embedded in the vehicle but also lives in the Cloud,”

McCammon continued. “With the advent of 5G we will talk about fall

computing, where we have the ability to compute back and forth from the

41

“

Cockpit of the future

If the cockpit of the future is allowed to adapt and evolve over time, consumers will retain vehicles for longer

vehicle domain into elements of the Cloud domain, making the computing environment more elastic.”

This could help support the rollout of

many new features, but looking further ahead, McCammon sees the need

for

a

new

approach

to

organising this computing power: “We’re going to have to look at virtualised computing, because the ability

to

put

numerous,

upon features is just not sustainable from a business standpoint.”

By using these virtual computing platforms, OEMs can consolidate

features, bundling them into packages

noted. “It can also be used to monitor

functions, making sure they are performing properly and that no threats have been introduced.”

that can be offered to consumers.

Cyber

Cockpit, which was built using a virtual

connected car technologies. “I tend to

Wind River has developed Helix computing platform.

highly

“It can hold multiple dissimilar guests,

vehicle and keep adding features

applications or Linux for rear cabin

powerful compute platforms into a

features, for example,” McCammon

like Android for user experience

security

considering

the

is

vital

when

introduction

of

disagree with those who say that the real security threat will be the invasion of autonomous driving or ADAS

technologies,”

McCammon

stated. “I think that the more likely

Wind River Helix Cockpit Wind River Environment

Open Source Component

Wind River–Developed Component

Third-Party Component

Wind River Helix Cockpit

Host Tools

UI and Application Framework (NodeJS) Multimedia

Mobile Device Connectivity

Cloud Connectivity

GENIVI Alignment (meta-ivi) Concepts: Fast Boot, Consolidation, a.o.

Security Profile for Wind River Linux Wind River Linux

Apps Phone

Speech

(F)OTA

Filesys

Wind River Automotive Services Practice

Demonstration and Proof of Concept

Reference Hardware Platform

42

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Cockpit of the future point of attack is the consumer-

at

enters the ADAS or autonomous

both car ownership and the average

orientated features, before the hacker driving technologies.”

The automotive industry is already taking measures to ensure that

“

conventional control systems, such as the electronic steering wheel, the brakes or throttle are safeguarded from hacking. But McCammon thinks that one of the worrying areas is

connectivity between infotainment systems and mobile devices.

the

University

of

Michigan’s

Transportation Research Institute,

distance driven have declined in the

US. Both reached their peak in 2006, while car ownership is down 4.4%

and miles driven are down 7.8%.

Figures also show that the average lifecycle

of

vehicles

has

risen

from around nine years in 2008 to 11 in 2017.

“If the cockpit of the future is allowed to adapt and evolve over time,

With the advent of 5G we will talk about fall computing, where we have the ability to compute back and forth from the vehicle domain into elements of the Cloud domain, making the computing environment more elastic

Every time a new occupant enters a vehicle with a handheld device, there

is a new threat, he warned. “If the

consumers will retain vehicles for longer,” McCammon predicted.

interaction

This could be enabled through over-

devices, which is very logical, then we

McCammon referred to a ten-year-old

future

is

to

enable

between the vehicle and mobile must

consider

potential

threats

coming via USB, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and

satellite connectivity. I really believe

that the focus on securing the cabin will be a major topic of discussion for the foreseeable future.”

Living longer

Vehicle lifecycle is a key consideration, and here too the cabin has a role to

play. According to a study carried out

by Michael Sivak, Research Professor

www.automotivemegatrends.com

the-air

(OTA)

software

updates.

iPad, which even today is capable of

accessing almost all apps in the Apple store. “Even though it may have

limited functionality in comparison to

a modern iPad Pro, it still provides a reasonable user experience.”

The same could happen with vehicles,

he concluded. This would see OTA-

updated vehicles remaining in use for much longer – an intriguing thought, and a fascinating by-product of connected vehicle technology.

43

Vision Zero

Collision-free, emission-free driving - no zero-sum game Michael Nash talks to ZF experts about the innovative safety and powertrain technologies featured on its Vision Zero Vehicle

C

rash data reports make for

Safety Council. While this represents a

legislation. As a result, OEMs and

be published by the National

previous year, it is still a long way from

new technologies.

sombre reading. The latest to

Highway Traffic Safety Administration

(NHTSA) shows that 37,461 lives were lost on US roads in 2016,

marking a 5.6% increase from 2015 and the second consecutive year of rising fatalities.

In Europe, 25,670 people died in road traďŹƒc-related collisions according to statistics from the European Transport

44

2%

decrease

compared

to

the

the target set by the European Union

in 2010 to halve the 2010 ďŹ gure of 31,500 road traďŹƒc fatalities by 2020.

Reducing emissions is also a key issue for the automotive industry, with authorities all over the world setting

tougher targets. These typically come in the form of a proposal or guideline

document before being introduced as

suppliers are constantly developing

A personal goal ZF, the German supplier headquartered

in Friedrichshafen, has a lofty ambition

of its own. Speaking to Megatrends, Peter Lake, Member of the Board of

Management at ZF, described in detail the thinking behind the Vision Zero Vehicle.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Vision Zero “A future of personal mobility with zero collisions and zero local emissions –

that’s our goal,” Lake said. “The exact detail of that route is not entirely clear

to anyone, and I don’t want to overemphasise the term 'disruption', but

there is uncertainty as to exactly how technologies will develop.”

The supplier provided a glimpse into its

expectations for technology that will allow it to meet its goal with its Vision

Zero Vehicle – a fully electric concept car that was unveiled in the run-up to

the 2017 Frankfurt Motor Show at ZF’s

Global Press Event held on a test track in Bratislava, Slovakia. ZF's contribution

to the Vision Zero initiative is capable of allowing the person in the driver’s seat to take their hands off the wheel

and feet off the pedals, and includes a host of safety technologies that are designed to lower the chance of a collision occurring when the car is in manual mode.

Fatal distraction Distraction fatigue can be fatal.

According to the NHTSA data, there

were 3,450 fatalities on US roads caused by distracted drivers in 2016, and

803

fatalities

caused

by

drowsiness. A new study carried out by

driving analytics company Zendrive found that drivers are using their

phones on 88% of journeys, with an

average of 3.5 minutes spent per hour – a worrying stat as a two-second distraction can increase the risk of a crash taking place by 20%.

Using a laser-based time-of-flight interior

camera

with

artificial

intelligence (AI), the ZF concept car monitors the position of the driver’s

head in 3D. If the driver looks away

“

ZF's Driver Distraction Assist technology monitors driver attention, and issues warnings or even assumes control in critical situations

A future of personal mobility with zero collisions and zero local emissions – that’s our goal - Peter Lake, Member of the Board of Management, ZF

from the road, the system provides an

The car also has a system called

German Automobile Club (ADAC), the

acoustic signal while also automatically

from entering roads from the wrong

people driving past no entry signs was

optical warning before giving an tightening the seatbelts.

www.automotivemegatrends.com

‘Wrong-way Inhibit’ to prevent drivers direction. According to the General

number of fatalities in 2016 caused by

12, and a total of 2,200 radio traffic

45

Vision Zero

“

The car knows exactly which roads it should not enter by using information from highly accurate maps that are constantly updated via the Cloud as well as traffic signs and road markings that are recognised by a forward-facing camera - Volker Vogul, Project Manager and Software Engineer at ZF

announcements were made due to

providing an optical warning, then an

might want to have a laptop or a tray

frequent occurrence on the Autobahn

seatbelts. It will also slowly bring the

instead,” Vogul said.

wrong way incidents – a surprisingly in particular due to the quirks of Germany’s entry ramp designs.

“The car knows exactly which roads it should

not

enter

by

acoustic warning before tightening the

vehicle to a halt at the side of the road before activating the hazard warning lights and high beam headlights.

using

Vogul is confident that addressing the

maps that are constantly updated via

preventing drivers from entering roads

information from highly accurate

the Cloud as well as traffic signs and

road markings that are recognised by a forward-facing camera,” Volker

Vogul, Project Manager and Software Engineer

at

Megatrends.

ZF,

“This

explained

is

to

particularly

helpful for older drivers, who often

issues of distracted driving and

the wrong way will “have a big impact on lowering crashes that occur every

day on our roads.” The next step, he added, is eliminating human error.

A tip to autonomous

to put food on in front of them The

car

can

also

be

used

in

autonomous mode. Embedded inside

is a ZF ProAI control unit that is based on

the

supercomputer

platform

supplied by its joint venture (JV) partner Nvidia. It works by processing

inputs from multiple cameras, LiDAR, radar and ultrasonic sensors – a task

known as sensor fusion. This allows the vehicle to obtain a 360-degree view before locating itself on an HD map to find a safe path.

don’t realise their mistake.”

As well as a conventional steering

“The vehicle can detect obstacles in

The system will carry out the same

controlled using a haptic dial found on

through a fusion of information

sequence of events that takes place when a driver is distracted – first

46

wheel, the concept vehicle can be the centre console. “The idea of this is

to free up more space, because people

the road and changes to the surface obtained via the camera, radar, LiDAR and map data,” Vogul said. “If the car

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Vision Zero

There is uncertainty around the pace and content of the regulatory framework that will evolve as far as electrification is concerned, as some authorities in certain parts of the world are more aggressive than others in lowering emissions - Peter Lake, Member of the Board of Management, ZF

detects road works ahead and knows

differential and the power electronics.

content of the regulatory framework

autonomous mode, it prompts the

unit, ZF has managed to save both

is concerned, as some authorities in

that it cannot continue to function in

driver with a variety of warnings. If the driver still doesn’t take control, the car will slow safely and stop at the side of the road.”

At the moment, the autonomous

mode only functions at speeds of up to 60kph (37mph). However, Vogul

revealed that ZF is already testing the technology at higher speeds.

Keeping options open While much of the emphasis of the

By including all of this in the axle drive weight and space.

Looking ahead, Lake is confident that the

mSTARS

system

both OEMs and consumers as it “delivers the performance of a more

expensive, conventional multi-link axle typically used in compact and

sports vehicles.” However, like many, he believes that the uptake of electrified

vehicles

technology, Lake thinks that its

around

autonomous

driving

all-electric drivetrain is a vital part of the puzzle.

is

dependent upon regulation.

“There is a level of

the

make

electrification increasingly enticing for

concept car is on the safety features and

will

highly

that will evolve as far as electrification certain parts of the world are more

aggressive than others in lowering emissions,” Lake said. “For a supplier like ZF, a strategy that is sufficiently

robust to support various scenarios that arise is an absolute must. This means we need to invest in PHEVs, in

BEVs and in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

Nobody

has

a

crystal

ball, and so we must keep our options open.”

uncertainty pace and

the

“We are all about electrification,” he affirmed. “The concept car uses our modular rear axle system called mSTARS, which is a robust solution that allows OEMs to react fast to changing market demands as it can be used

for plug-in hybrid electric

vehicles (PHEVs) and batteryelectric vehicles (BEVs).”

The system also houses the

electric motor and a two-stage

one-speed spur gear drive, a

www.automotivemegatrends.com

ZF’s mSTARS modular rear axle system, which can be used for PHEVs and BEVs, allows OEMs to react quickly to changing market demands 47

Shared mobility

Smart cities and the vehicle ownership shift Could mobility services, new business models and the sharing economy spell the end of the private car? Megan Lampinen investigates

S

mart cities are coming, bringing

development," he points out. "The push

urban mobility. The proliferation

moving people away from personal

with them new approaches to

of

connected

mobility

services,

combined with the rise of highly automated driving and the sharing

economy, raise questions about the prospects for private vehicle ownership.

Add in hefty investment in public transportation and we could be looking

ownership. The take-up of sharing services and the eventual advent of automated vehicles changes the whole

pattern of how we think of vehicle

ownership in the city. Multiple trends are moving us in that direction."

at the end of the ownership model

Roland Berger believes there will always

Spectrum of predictions

even in the long-term, though it adds

completely.

be some role for personal ownership, the caveat that ownership structures and

Transport as a Service (TaaS) disruption

could prove profound. The think tank RethinkX predicts that vehicle users will move away entirely from the

traditional ownership model and

instead access vehicles as and when

vehicle

designs

will

change

dramatically. Its analysts envision a future

in

which

fully

automated

mobility-on-demand eets constitute a

major part of the car parc, while vehicle ownership provides more personalised travel experiences.

required. "The TaaS disruption will end

For Timo Moeller, Head of the McKinsey

car sales and the existing eet of both

decidedly

the model of car ownership itself. New internal

combustion

engine

and

electric vehicles (240 million vehicles in

the US) will be displaced as car owners

sell or abandon their vehicles and use

TaaS," it writes in the Rethinking Transportation report.

Eric Woods, Research Director at Navigant Research, sees a clear trend

towards greater use of shared mobility

but questions whether this will ever reach 100%. "With all technology adoption

48

from cities today is very much towards

there

are

layers

of

Center for Future Mobility, it will be a mixed

picture

moving

forward. On the whole, he expects

personal vehicle ownership to remain a smaller but still relevant aspect of transport over the next decade. This is

in part due to the inability of existing shared mobility solutions to fully address all transportation use cases.

"Ride-sharing tends not to be the optimal solution for the daily commute due to its cost, nor is it attractive for

multi-stop shopping trips where you

want to store items in the trunk," he told Megatrends. "Furthermore, to build

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Shared mobility

Vehicle ownership is becoming less important for younger generations of customers, and new competitors are entering the market that have partly already overtaken established OEMs with respect to market valuations - Timo Moeller, Head of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

a positive business case for sharing

congestion levels by complementing

ownership. "In more mature markets of

utilisation have to be met, which is

private-vehicle-free zones in the near

has reached a stage where not owning

solutions, certain thresholds regarding barely feasible in low-density rural areas at the moment."

The quality and availability of public

transport services could dramatically impact ownership models. "A strong public transportation network, which

is efficient and effective, must be supported by seamless last mile

coverage, with an option of on-

demand availability of vehicles," suggested

Indraneel

Bardhan,

public transport, you can think of

future," suggested Moeller. "In rural areas, privately owned vehicles will

remain the predominant form for a longer time. Autonomous vehicle technology

and

purpose-built

vehicles will be a game changer, removing customer pain points such

as the lack of convenience for pooling

solutions,

and

making

business cases profitable even for lower-density areas."

Founder and Managing Partner of

Meanwhile, regional variances across

models will allow for a vehicle

significant. "There are very different

EOS Intelligence. "Only such hybrid ownership shift and will define how the transportation space evolves."

Regional variances

While opinions vary on the specific prospects

for

personal

vehicle

ownership, most agree that urban

centres will lead the way. "In high-

the world's markets should remain

the other hand, in the developing and emerging markets of LATAM, APAC and Africa, cars symbolise wealth, status

and independence," he observed.

"While there's been a shift towards and

growing adoption of the likes of Uber, Lyft and Ola, this hasn't necessarily

curbed the ownership of vehicles in some markets. It is likely to take a

generational shift of ambition and attitude for the concept of vehicle

ownership to change in these parts of the world."

OEM response

quicker than in some US cities or

While nobody has a reliable crystal

Woods. Roland Berger suggests that

concern

see European cities moving there developing

countries,"

suggested

customers in Singapore, China and

India are currently leading in the shift away from car ownership.

Bardhan

solutions to reduce emission and

ambitions and desires regarding vehicle

www.automotivemegatrends.com

a car is an acceptable societal norm. On

approaches to car culture already. We

density cities, where governments strongly incentivise shared mobility

Europe, the idea of vehicle ownership

suggests

much

of

this

development will hinge on societal

ball, the signs are sufficient to be of to

car

manufacturers.

"Brands need to become translatable.

They cannot be tied to the original

infrastructure," warned Woods. "The biggest book seller today doesn't have

any book stores. The biggest taxi provider doesn't have any taxis. OEMs

need to build on their assets but not

49

“

Shared mobility

The push from cities today is very much towards moving people away from personal ownership. The take-up of sharing services and the eventual advent of automated vehicles changes the whole pattern of how we think of vehicle ownership in the city - Eric Woods, Research Director, Navigant Research

be so tied to them that it leaves them

itself. PSA, for example, is launching its

have that legacy."

aggregation platform in the US, a market

vulnerable to new entrants that don't

Most of the incumbents are dabbling

Free2Move smartphone-based mobility where it doesn't even sell vehicles.

in some form of alternative mobility

"To stay competitive in the long term,

confirmed Ford's positioning as a

traditional business model. Vehicle

projects. The Ford Pass app debut mobility provider more than a simple car manufacturer. Offering a range of

mobility-related services, the app can serve

as

a

personal

mobility

concierge. Sheryl Connelly, Ford's Global

Consumer

Trends

and

Futuring Manager, promised it would "reach people who don't plan to ever

OEMs have started to rethink their

ownership is becoming less important for younger generations of customers,

and new competitors are entering the market that have partly already

overtaken established OEMs with respect to market valuations," said McKinsey's Moeller.

Infrastructure implications

As vehicle usage patterns transform, so

too will infrastructure. In most cases, it will be upgraded or even eliminated.

That's the prediction from global

innovation hub SOSA, which suggests that in smart cities of the future, cross

sections of streets could be moved,

public transportation and ride-sharing lanes widened, and garages converted

into private residences or office spaces.

Even simple city benches could be revolutionised.

own a car."

"Nevertheless, shared mobility isn't all

"At Ford, we believe the city of tomorrow

Ride- and car-sharing is one of the

OEMs already started the transition

and connected, so we’re looking at how

biggest areas for experimentation among OEMs at the moment. What started out as a means of exposing the

brand to consumers, with the aim of a future purchase, has become an end in

50

bad for the industry. We see that many from

a

being

a

pure

vehicle

manufacturer to becoming a holistic

mobility provider, taking advantage of the strong new opportunities from a

rapidly growing shared mobility market."

should make people feel happy, safe streets could be designed to serve a full

range of activities: walking, biking,

driving, connecting with others, and of course, businesses and services that

support our economies," said Sarah-

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Shared mobility

Ride-sharing tends not to be the optimal solution for the daily commute due to its cost, nor is it attractive for multi-stop shopping trips where you want to store items in the trunk - Timo Moeller, McKinsey

Jayne Williams, the recently appointed

and expecting autonomous vehicle

roads need to be intelligent and

As a first step, Ford is working with

into the city centre, what should the

future transition to fully autonomous

Director of Ford Smart Mobility, Europe. smart cities start-up Strawberry Energy to introduce smart benches, which offer

pedestrians free solar-powered mobile charging and Wi-Fi access while they sit.

Many observers anticipate more space

in city centres as fewer vehicles operate and less parking is required. "So much

of modern city infrastructure was constructed around the need to

pods to be used for last mile travel

surrounding road infrastructure look

like?" asks Woods. "It will require something very different from the traditional

arterial

structure

for

roadways. The interplay will be key,

looking at where roads are still necessary and what will be required

by the new types of transport, like bike sharing."

flexible enough to accommodate a

vehicles," it writes in the report 'The Future of Car Ownership'. "As more and

more

autonomous

vehicles

become reality, petrol stations may be replaced

with

charging

stations,

highways may require sensors or wireless technological additions, and

car parking stations may act as mixeduse spaces."

provide space for private vehicles - not

Above all, though, infrastructure will

The promising news is that action is

parks," observed Woods. "It is liberating

communication among cars and

world

just roadways but also aspects like car

to be able to think about what could happen if you do not need to make space for private vehicles on the volumes that we see today."

Roadways

will

need

to

be

incorporated into wider city planning.

"If you are redeveloping a train station

www.automotivemegatrends.com

need

to

be

smart

to

support

traffic lights, toll stations, bridges and buildings. Australia's National Roads and Motorists' Association (NRMA) is

already urging that all major road project

plans

incorporate

smart

infrastructure systems or at least allow for easy retrofit for future

technology. "The next generation of

well underway. Cities around the have

woken

up

to

the

challenges on the way and are keen to

make a start. "Cities are very actively engaged in this," Woods pointed out.

"After all, transportation and the road network define a city in many ways.

This activity and engagement will become an even bigger focus in the coming years."

51

Steel for the future

Steel giant on a mission to cut emissions Michael Nash talks to Jean-Luc Thirion of ArcelorMittal about the company’s expanding portfolio of solutions that could help make battery electric vehicles more enticing for the consumer

I

t’s an exciting time to be involved

manufacturing are among the key

period of significant change and

Thirion,

in the automotive industry – a

considerable disruption. A throng of megatrends is currently sweeping across the market, each of which is

having a considerable influence on OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers alike.

“The rising popularity of car-sharing,

Global

ArcelorMittal’s

R&D,

Head

Automotive,

of

told

Megatrends. “They are having a big

impact on everyone, but for steel producers like ArcelorMittal, these trends are encouraging us to come up with new ideas.”

the imminent introduction of highly

A fourth trend, and arguably the

role

electrification. Several OEMs have

autonomous vehicles, and the growing

52

trends that come to mind,” Jean-Luc

for

3D

printing

in

vehicle

most

pertinent

at

present,

is

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Steel for the future As a result, the market share of mild hybrid vehicles, PHEVs and BEVs will likely grow. Expectations vary, but ArcelorMittal thinks that around 25%

of all global vehicle sales will be electrified by 2025.

Different architectures, different impacts

Each of the three architectures – mild

hybrids, PHEVs and BEVs – will have varying impacts when it comes to

ArcelorMittal’s second-gen iCARe electrical steel product range offers improved power density over the first-gen range, which translates into less weight for the same motor performance, in turn improving driving range (Pictured: ArcelorMittal’s mill at St-Chély d'Apcher, France)

“

design and manufacturing. For mild hybrids, the impacts are likely to be relatively minimal, while PHEVs will

require a certain level of sophistication between the internal combustion

recently launched new plug-in hybrid

CO2 per kilometre target that is set for

electric

million tonnes of CO2 from being

The latter, Thirion claimed, could be

around €18bn (US$20.99bn) per year

impact on design and manufacturing.

electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery vehicles

numerous

(BEVs),

studies

point

while

to

considerable growth in the two segments over the next ten years.

2021. This would prevent around 170 emitted, and could save consumers in fuel costs.

engine (ICEs) and electric motor.

the most noticeable in terms of “Firstly, there is an important change

Emissions targets are so severe that the conventional evolution of vehicle manufacturing with classic powertrains and weight savings just won’t suffice. It’s clear that electrification will be necessary, at least at some level

This rising popularity is partly due to

Although it is meant to encourage a

in terms of mass because the battery

take shape. In November 2017, the

vehicle development, the proposal is

noted. “This changes the way that we

future regulations that are starting to European Commission (EC) presented a legislative proposal for CO2 targets of

passenger cars and light commercial

vehicles (LCVs) across the continent post-2020.

Under

the

proposal,

fleet-wide

emissions of new cars in 2030 will need to be 30% lower than the 95g of

www.automotivemegatrends.com

technology-neutral

approach

to

likely to ensure that OEMs increase their efforts in electrification. “The targets are so severe that the

conventional evolution of vehicle manufacturing

with

can weigh as much as 700kg,” he

need to distribute the mass, which, in turn, will have an impact on the chassis and the wheels.”

classic

BEVs on the market today typically

won’t suffice,” Thirion warned. “It’s

located beneath the floor of the

powertrains and weight savings just clear

that

electrification

will

necessary, at least at some level.”

be

contain lithium-ion battery packs vehicle. This generally has a positive

impact when it comes to handling, as

53

Steel for the future a low centre of gravity in a vehicle reduces the load that is shifted to the

front during braking and to the rear during acceleration.

However, the inclusion of a battery also has an impact on performance

and responsiveness, and also comes

with safety implications. “As the battery adds a significant amount to

the overall weight of the vehicle, we

have to find a way to offset this

through lightweighting, otherwise it could be very sluggish off the mark,”

Thirion noted. “Furthermore, the BiW plays a double role in terms of safety –

protecting both the vehicle occupants and the battery.”

However,

the

solution

to

these

problems is not necessarily unique to

ArcelorMittal has identified higher total vehicle mass on BEVs and PHEVs due to their higher overall powertrain system mass (including battery cells). This increases requirements on the structure, and the need for high strength materials such as AHSS for passenger protection without compromising on safety or performance.

BEVs. On the contrary, ArcelorMittal

As a result, the supplier has no plans to

developing lightweight but strong

exclusively because “the key trends in

has been working for many years on body-in-white

(BiW)

solutions

vehicles that contain ICEs.

in

steel products are very well suited to

electrical steels,” Thirion clarified.

BEVs already,” Thirion confirmed.

generation advanced high-strength

Although not currently developing

Ductibor 1000, Usibor 2000 and

ArcelorMittal is busy working on

“

MartINsite

M1700

and

M2000.

The new steel grades were designed to

further

reduce

BiW

weight

and therefore improve fuel economy

performance of BEVs.

“There are several properties that are

A complex juggling act

steels (AHSS) with the introduction of

comes to enhancing the efficiency and

develop specific BiW products for EVs

In November 2016, ArcelorMittal

expanded its portfolio of third-

are extremely important when it

BiW

products

specific

for

BEVs,

electrical steels that are used in other

very important when it comes to

“First of all there is polarisation,

which is the level of induction reached in the air gap between the

stator and the rotor. This determines

the torque of the BEV, and is really important at low speeds or when the car has to start.”

parts of the vehicle, notably steels for

One of the benefits of BEVs is that

the iCARe range, these electrical steels

acceleration from standstill, while ICE-

use within the electric motor. Called

they are able to provide instant

In terms of innovation and technology, I think it is important to highlight that our focus is on developing products with excellent properties, while also making sure they are very thin, very light, safe and cost effective

54

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Steel for the future

iCARe steels are used in conventional as well as electric cars, with even average conventional cars using up to 70 electric motors for power windows, headlight controllers and power seating (Pictured: ArcelorMittal’s mill at St-Chély d'Apcher, France) powered vehicles have a slight delay

generate heat that must be extracted

be injected, combustion to take place,

of power and current output. The

due to the time it takes for the fuel to

and torque to be delivered. “BEVs

have this ability because of the level of polarisation in the air gap, and it’s a

to avoid lower performance in terms

steel’s mechanical properties are a fourth consideration.

very clear advantage,” Thirion noted.

“To make an electric rotor or stator,

The second important property of

steels to create a sharp edge shape,”

electrical steels, he continued, is the minimisation of losses. “An electric

motor is a system that converts

electrical energy into mechanical

energy. During this process, the

we must punch very thin electrical

Thirion explained. “It’s very important

which

is

called

hysteresis. This is responsible for

some energy loss, and if you lose

some of this energy, you decrease the efficiency and range of the batteries.”

The third important factor when

considering electrical steels is thermal conductivity,

as

electric

motors

www.automotivemegatrends.com

portfolio of lightweight BiW solutions and electrical steels have positioned

the company to take advantage of the growth in the segment.

has developed a further five second-

been specially designed to address

modification,

believes that ArcelorMittal’s current

which will again limit the efficiency.”

around the steels. This field will in the rotor, but there is a delay in this

about the outlook for BEVs, and

However, more is on the way. As well

create shortcuts in the magnetic field, ArcelorMittal’s range of three iCARe

modify the magnetic structure of steel

Looking ahead, Thirion is positive

that it is sharp, otherwise it may

magnetic field is provided by injecting

the current in the copper winding

New grades

steels – Save, Torque and Speed – has each of these issues, something which Thirion admitted has been challenging

as the three listed above, ArcelorMittal generation electrical steels, and while he did not reveal a launch date,

Thirion is confident that these will help to make BEVs an increasingly attractive proposition.

to achieve: “Developing electrical

“The five new grades improve on the

balance

in all aspects,” he stated. “In terms of

steels consists of finding the right between

properties:

all

of

polarisation,

these

losses,

thermal conductivity and mechanical properties. With all these properties to

consider, development of electrical steels is one of the most complex tasks among all steel grades.”

properties of the previous generation innovation and technology, I think it is

important to highlight that our focus is on developing products with excellent properties, while also making sure

they are very thin, very light, safe and cost effective.”

55

Electric taxis

Electrified and on-demand – taxis take on the mobility services London may be the first target for its electrified taxis, but the London Electric Vehicle Company has global ambitions, says Chief Executive Chris Gubbey.

By Xavier Boucherat

A

s the 2017 IAA demonstrated,

electric and gasoline hybrid models by

which OEMs hope will soon

the capital), and all UK drivers by 2022.

electrification is a megatrend

create appeal for customers beyond environmentally conscious drivers

looking to make a lifestyle change.

This could include fleet owners, for whom the bottom line matters most,

and among the early adopters in this

“

market is the growing number of mobility

service

operators.

With

several cities proposing bans on fossil fuel-burning

vehicles,

forward-

thinking operators and drivers are now making moves to decrease their

2020 (assuming operations continue in

The company will offer drivers £5,000

(US$6,590) in assistance to switch to

qualifying vehicles. This pre-empts the introduction of London’s ultra-low emission standards, which come into

effect in the existing congestion

charging zone in September 2020.

Diesel passenger vehicles will need to

meet Euro 6 standards, whilst gasoline vehicles will need to meet Euro 4, or else pay a charge.

dependence on diesel and gasoline.

But along with private hire services,

This includes modern mobility services.

making moves. The manufacturer of

Among

the

numerous

headlines

involving Uber in 2017, one outlined its

vision to have all London drivers in

the traditional hire-cab sector is also

one of the world’s most recognisable taxis – the black Hackney Carriage – is

rebranding itself; as of 2017, the

Converting any conventional powertrain vehicle into an electric one presents a long list of difficulties, whereas if you start from scratch, you know exactly what’s required

56

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Electric taxis

In 2017, London Taxi Co. was renamed LEVC by owner Geely

“

This is all about putting passengers in the back and giving them a comfortable trip.

There’s a balance to be struck

London Taxi Company, established in

says

Chris

electric one presents a long list of

Geely, goes by the name London

running. Drivers can operate in full

scratch, you know exactly what’s

1899 and now owned by Chinese OEM Electric Vehicle Company (LEVC). The

name change followed the March opening

of

the

company’s

new

manufacturing facility in Coventry,

England, which builds the new TX1

LEVC

Chief

Executive

Gubbey, and only when the engine is

electric mode once inside the city’s low emissions zone, and switch to rangeextended mode when commuting, or taking customers on longer trips such

difficulties, whereas if you start from required,”

he

says.

“It

is

more

expensive, but far more efficient and straightforward.”

as airport transfers.

For example, he says, building a new

capital before the end of 2017.

Building an electric taxi cab comes with

for use of a bonded aluminium body.

The TX1 is a series hybrid, which means

explains, whilst the TX1 looks like a

model, slated for delivery in the British

that unlike a parallel hybrid, in which an

electric motor and combustion engine can both drive the wheels, the engine

in the TX1 serves as range extender to

charge and maintain the battery. This brings CO2 emissions to under 50g/km,

www.automotivemegatrends.com

its own unique challenges. As Gubbey

traditional London Hackney Cab, it is for the most part an entirely new

vehicle, and any resemblance is a

sleight of hand on the part of LEVC’s design

team.

“Converting

any

conventional powertrain vehicle into an

vehicle from the ground up allowed

Weight is the biggest challenge for any electric vehicle, but particularly

for taxis which often carry full loads of people. LEVC, says Gubbey, has

drawn on expertise from UK-based players such as Lotus and McLaren.

“Light-weighting this type of body structure is an area where British

57

Electric taxis

“

By 2020, we are expecting at least 50% of models to be exported, and the UK is a good hub for this

engineers

have

an

edge,

and

we’ve been able to attract them,” says Gubbey.

Taxis also operate in dense, often congested

conditions,

involving

frequent stop-start driving. This creates plentiful opportunities for regenerative

the range the average cab driver

Paris and Barcelona. The major

cycle. This, combined with home-

it fits emerging requirements in

would need to complete a day’s work

charging, he says, should be enough to ease fears around range anxiety, but

work remains to be done to quell concerns around charger availability.

braking. Some individual EV drivers

The company is working closely with

such that the vehicle virtually brakes

of 2017, TfL has targets to install 75

have their regeneration tuned harshly, once a driver steps off the accelerator, allowing for maximum regeneration.

However, says Gubbey, this is unlikely to be acceptable for taxi customers, who expect a smooth ride.

“We do not use a harsh tuning,” he says.

“Once drivers get used the model, there’s potential to step it up, but

initially we need to recognise that this

is all about putting passengers in the back and giving them a comfortable trip. There’s a balance to be struck.”

Transport for London (TfL). By the end taxi-dedicated rapid chargers, 150 by

argues, “and it’s almost as if the whole

world has woken up at once.” Along with city bans, several states, such as

China, France and the UK, have

announced long-term blanket bans on the sale of fossil-fuel burning vehicles.

the city, with hotspots receiving

describes

particular

attention.

Five

rapid

chargers have also appeared at

Heathrow airport, an example of the continued

growth

of

low-carbon

technology for travel between city centres and transport hubs.

Beyond London

Gubbey believes a 20 to 30-minute

plans for a greater international

58

major city has the same problem,” he

The company has already sold 225

Chargers would be spread throughout

Inner-city charging

charger could provide the TX1 with all

markets around the world. “Every

the end of 2018, and 300 by 2020.

The London Taxi Company has served

charging session on a 22 kilowatt rapid

advantage of the TX1, he says, is that

other global markets in limited volumes for some time, but LEVC has

rollout. Gubbey has in his sights five key markets: Amsterdam, Oslo, Berlin,

models in Amsterdam, which Gubbey confidence.

as

a

“By

huge

2020,

vote we

of

are

expecting at least 50% of models to be exported, and the UK is a good hub

for this,” says Gubbey. However, he adds, “Brexit admittedly changes

things. Our chairman has already given

reassurances

of

the

UK’s

importance, and our position falls in line with the (UK automotive industry trade body) SMMT in that we want zero tariffs and free movement. It

could be painful if things go any other way, but regardless, we’ve put a huge

amount of investment into this and we will make it work.”

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

The skills shortage

Automotive engineers – skill up to keep up!

Next-gen auto industry requires next-gen auto engineers – could softwarebased training be the answer? By Megan Lampinen

A

fleet of machines, electrically-

model-based designs. Earlier this

truth labelling, generate synthetic

artificial

headquartered mathematical computing

perform multi-sensor fusion, and

powered and controlled by intelligence

(AI),

guided by an array of sensors, radar

and LiDAR: vehicles of the future may

bear little resemblance to passenger

cars as we know them. And the transition

is

well

under

way,

prompting an equally radical shift in

“

design and engineering.

Tools to help MathWorks

has

year,

the

Natick,

Massachusetts-

software company released a new

product called Automated Driving System Toolbox, which provides algorithms and tools for designing and

testing

assistance

advanced

systems

(ADAS)

autonomous driving systems.

driver and

Engineers face a host of challenges in been

helping

automotive companies with their development efforts by providing

solutions on technical computing and

developing such systems, including long development cycles, system and

algorithm creation, and testing and verification. Toolbox helps with all of that. "You can automate ground-

sensor data for driving scenarios,

design and simulate vision systems," explained Kishore Rao, Country Head and

Managing

MathWorks in India.

Director

for

The company also has tools to help with a host of emerging megatrends,

including the move towards tighter emission

standards

and

full

vehicle electrification. Companies face increasingly complex controls and

diagnostics

proliferation

of

due

to

sensors

the

and

actuators in vehicle systems. At the

Data scientists combine three types of knowledge.

First, they have domain expertise. Second, they understand computing. Third, they understand how to apply statistical and mathematical analysis to their problems. It is very rare to find people who have all three

www.automotivemegatrends.com

59

“

The skills shortage

The IT services tend to dominate the hiring season in any engineering institute. Many skilled individuals go to services companies and take on a programming profession

“

same time, more stringent emission

understand how to apply statistical

One way for companies to re-skill

control and calibration. In 2016,

problems. It is very rare to find people

to courses on data analytics, deep

standards

demand

precision

in

MathWorks released a product called

Powertrain Blockset, which provides fully assembled reference application

models of automotive powertrains,

including gasoline, diesel, hybrid, and

electric systems. Customers can use it for design tradeoff analysis and component sizing, control parameter

optimisation, and hardware-in-theloop testing.

The company is also preparing for the

many

opportunities

made

possible with Big Data and predictive maintenance.

In

contrast

to

conventional preventive maintenance, the

schedule

for

predictive

maintenance is not determined by a prescribed timeline. Instead, it is

determined using analytic algorithms harnessing

data

equipment sensors.

collected

from

When it comes to tackling the

automotive design challenges of today and tomorrow, a host of advanced skill

sets will be required. "Data scientists combine three types of knowledge.

First, they have domain expertise. They

are experts in the field in which they work," said Rao. "They know the

engineering or the science behind their

projects. Second, they understand computing. They know the basics of coding,

data

management,

and

computing infrastructure. Third, they

60

and mathematical analysis to their who have all three types of knowledge, so that makes them difficult to hire.

Almost every week there are articles

written about the shortage of data scientists, and it is recognised as a global issue."

their teams is to send their engineers learning, etc. They can also hire a

team of experts, but the shortage of qualified

individuals

is

a

real

obstacle. "We are a big proponent of equipping the domain expert and

the engineer with tools that will

India is known for its IT services.

Our intent, when we work with engineering colleges, is to direct them to the core industries, including automotive

The skills shortage

allow him to learn these skills very

spectrum are struggling to acquire

last two years, and something that

Players

across

the

automotive

individuals with new skills in emerging

areas such as data science but also software, deep learning and AI. "This

is a concern for the industry - how do

you secure the talent in these new

areas? How do you develop the skills or bring in the skills?" asked Rao.

Because MathWorks provides the tools and the knowledge on how

technology can be used in these new

areas, it believes it can play a special role in this challenge.

quickly. That is something that has been a big focus in our tools in the

customers really value," observed

Rao. Enter MATLAB - it essentially

provides an interactive environment and a set of tools to enable domain

experts to become data scientists, developing custom predictive models from

engineering

and

business

data. Through flexible deployment options, production-ready models can be integrated much more quickly into

business

embedded devices.

systems

and

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The skills shortage

We are a big proponent of equipping the domain expert and the engineer with tools that will allow him to learn these skills very quickly. That is something that has been a big focus in our tools in the last two years, and something that customers really value

"Rather

than

hiring

costly

data

scientists who may not have the correct domain expertise, you can look

to MATLAB users to apply statistical

methods and machine learning to solve engineering problems. These

Mahindra Rise's autonomous vehicle

academia - about 30-40% of our

latter

That's because these people are

challenge and Robocon India. This competition

encourages

engineers to tackle problems in the fields of robotics and AI.

engineers and scientists already have

MathWorks has been a sponsor for

to quickly determine whether an

and offers participating teams free

the domain expertise, so they are able analytic technique is going to be

useful," Rao explained. "Rather than

just hiring the data analytic expert from outside, who might not have the

domain knowledge, there is a lot of

Robocon India for the last few years access to MathWorks tools along with a chance to win the MathWorks Robocon prize in addition to the Robocon award.

value in re-skilling the engineers who

"We

Outside of industry

provide them tooling, software and

have the domain knowledge."

work

with

the

students

participating in these competitions, training. It gives them the chance to

That works well for people who are already working with automotive companies, but attracting players to

the industry in the ďŹ rst place is

another challenge. MathWorks takes a two-pronged approach. "Not only do

that they are learning industry

standard tools, new domains and how to ramp up."

this faster. We need to look at people

they represent a strategic focus. In

MathWorks puts considerable focus on academia and is active on various student

competitions,

such

as

www.automotivemegatrends.com

automotive industry from academic

institutions are coming in with some level of MATLAB knowledge and they

are able to ramp up faster once they join the industry," he noted. There's also a greater diversity of talent than in the past. "In India, it is quite

diverse, much more so than when I studied engineering in the 1980s," he pointed out.

areas remains a signiďŹ cant challenge,

These activities are more than simple

engineers of tomorrow," noted Rao.

"People who are coming into the

catch these kids early and make sure

areas but we also want to work with

in academia because they will be the

So far, the strategy is paying off.

Despite

products," he commented. "We try to

Strategic focus

academia to help students to learn

going to be the future engineers."

start using these tools for developing

we want to enable existing engineers

in industry to skill up faster in these

mindshare and resources go there.

education outreach. For MathWorks

fact, Rao describes the focus it places on academia as 'disproportionate'.

Globally, just 10% of the company's revenue comes from academia, while

90% comes from industry. "And yet

we focus much, much more on

the

progress,

attracting

individuals with the right skills in certain

not only for MathWorks but for all automotive companies. Rao describes

the hunt for talent in general as "very competitive". A big part of that

challenge in India is due to the lure of the IT services segment. "The IT

services tend to dominate the hiring

season in any engineering institute.

Many skilled individuals go to services

companies and take on a programming

profession," said Rao. "India is known for its IT services. Our intent, when we

work with engineering colleges, is to

direct them to the core industries, including automotive."

61

Smart parking

Smart parking will free up space – and time – in the city of tomorrow Freddie Holmes looks into opportunities that connected car technology can bring to consumers sick of wasting time and money whilst searching for parking

F

or all of the hype around

inconvenience. Looking for a parking

powertrains

pollution and decreases road safety,

driverless

cars,

and

electrified

advanced

connectivity, there remains a basic and seemingly simple task that continues

to

plague

drivers

regardless of global market or vehicle

segment: parking.

A trivial matter it may seem, but the

issue is more profound than one might

expect,

with

ramifications

extending far beyond simply minor

62

space in urban areas contributes to air

whilst those sat in traffic are losing

time and money. Research from US traffic

information

expert

INRIX

revealed that drivers globally spent 9% of their time behind the wheel sitting in traffic in 2016. It also found that traffic congestion cost US drivers

US$1,400, UK drivers £968 (US$1,283) and German drivers €1,531 (US$1,800) each in the same year.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Smart parking

“

OEMs aren’t traditionally consumer-facing businesses, as a majority of sales are through dealerships.

Therefore, they aren’t yet equipped to take daily payments or subscriptions directly from consumers during journeys - Ozgur Tohumcu, Chief Executive, Tantalum

What’s more, it is believed that a

only reducing traffic congestion but

among others, offers an embedded

congestion is a result of drivers

While INRIX has its own apps to this

information about off-street parking

significant

portion

of

inner

city

hunting for a parking spot. “This is a day

to

day

problem

for

cities,

especially big cities,” explains Graham

Cookson, Chief Economist and Head of Research at INRIX. Indeed, drivers

in the US, the UK and Germany spent an average of nearly nine minutes in

pursuit of a parking space in 2016,

according to INRIX research released

July 2017. “The cost of parking is huge, and in London equates to 65 hours a year,” adds Cookson.

There has been considerable activity

also the subsequent air pollution. end, other navigation providers also use its services. Waze, for example,

has access to INRIX parking data and can route drivers to nearby parking via

in-car apps. Other providers such as

Tantalum offer parking-specific apps

that are designed to make the

payment process easier and quicker.

Pay.Car, the company’s dedicated end-to-end connected

billing

vehicles,

platform means

for

that

drivers no longer need to carry cash to pay for parking.

among suppliers to develop smart

Nokia’s spun-off mapping unit, HERE,

a parking spot with greater ease, not

includes Audi, BMW and Daimler,

technologies that can help drivers find

www.automotivemegatrends.com

now owned by a consortium that

parking

service

that

provides

facilities close to end destinations or along a route. It is even possible to

specify that parking spots have nearby security cameras or on-site parking attendants.

Overpay or underpay, but you’ll still be out of pocket

In addition to the stress of finding a spot in the first place, many drivers

are also stung by parking fines, either

as a result of not paying in the first place or not extending the payment period. However, connected services available

today

can

reduce

the

63

“

Smart parking

In the traditional model you don't necessarily know how long you're going to be parked for – do you pay for 30 minutes, an hour, an hour and a half? This kind of connected car technology has a great opportunity to tackle those two problems - Graham Cookson, Chief Economist and Head of Research at INRIX

chances of receiving a parking fine

altogether. Tantalum’s Chief Executive, Ozgur Tohumcu, says that its Pay.Car

INRIX On-Street Parking A seamless experience giving drivers real-time parking information to take the headache out of parking.

service can ‘automate parking’ via the connected car.

£2/ hr

“Imagine your vehicle knowing the

£

£4/ hr

parking rules in your lot of choice and

auto-renewing your parking if you haven’t

returned

in

time,

while

notifying you in advance to ensure you leave before breaching any maximum explains.

stay

“With

restrictions,” the

he

technology

Find

all on-street parking options

near my destination

Compare

availability, prices and

other criteria such as hours of use and accessibility

Pay

for your parking with your car

or on your mobile phone

SOURCES 1 IBM Commuter Pain Survey http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/35514.wss 2 Donald Shoup, The High Cost of Free Parking, Chicago: Planners Press, 2005 and 2011.

3 IBM Commuter Pain Survey http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/35514.wss 4 Frost & Sullivan, 2015, "Strategic Analysis of Smart Parking Market in Europe and North America"

available today, you can pull up to a

INRIX’s Cookson points out that there is

an hour, an hour and a half?” he

away, leaving the vehicle to monitor

not paying at all – but also overpaying

technology has a great opportunity to

parking spot, park and then walk

the time until you drive out of the parking

zone,

and

automatically

picking up the bill from your vehicle wallet.” By embedding this form of

intelligence directly into the vehicle itself, drivers could eliminate parking fines altogether, he believes.

64

not only the issue of underpaying – or as a result of making an estimated guess at the parking meter. Many

explains. “This kind of connected car tackle those two problems.”

drivers are spending more on parking

According to the INRIX study, US

traditional model, you don't necessarily

while in the UK and Germany

than is necessary, he explains. “In the

know how long you're going to be

parked for – do you pay for 30 minutes,

drivers overpay US$20.4bn a year, overpayments

total

€4.4bn respectively.

£6.7bn

and

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Smart parking

Slow adoption

drivers who are willing to pay for the

But while there are promising signs in

usefulness becomes established, they

terms of technological developments, current figures show that more needs

to be done to bring these services to cars. “The technology's there and

adoption is starting but, as this survey demonstrates and as our data shows, this is still a huge problem,”

“

affirms Cookson.

latest tools and gadgets. As their

tend to become standard equipment and over time make their way down to

the lower models and into the mass market brands,” he explains. “But it's

also an awareness issue, and it is still

surprising that outside of the industry an average driver is unaware that these tools are available.”

and

Tantalum currently estimates that

number of issues. Firstly, OEMs have

connected by 2025. “Over the next five

Tantalum’s

Tohumcu

agrees,

believes adoption dwindles due to a been slow to adopt new services, and “early connected car programs have

had relatively limited functionality,” he says. “Secondly, aftermarket dongle

54% of passenger vehicles will be years, we will start to see solutions to these

problems

that

will

drive

adoption and subsequently automate the parking experience,” concludes

Over the next five years, we will start to see solutions to these problems that will drive adoption and subsequently automate the parking experience. Distribution of these types of services will become a priority - Ozgur Tohumcu, Tantalum

solutions have been too expensive.

Tohumcu. “Distribution of these types

consumer-facing businesses, as a

What’s

Thirdly,

OEMs

majority

of

aren’t

sales

traditionally

are

through

dealerships. Therefore, they aren’t yet

of services will become a priority.” more,

consumers

desire this technology.

clearly

equipped to take daily payments or

The INRIX survey of drivers in the US,

during journeys.”

85% of respondents would like the

subscriptions directly from consumers Cookson suggests that it will simply

take time for the fleet to refresh and for new connected services to filter down

from luxury and premium vehicles into entry-level vehicles. This can already be

seen today, with many A-segment vehicles

featuring

optional

infotainment systems with real-time navigation services. “It starts with the

premium makes because they have

www.automotivemegatrends.com

Germany and the UK found that 75-

ability to reserve parking through an app or service, and just under half be

keen to use a mobile payment platform, be it through an embedded

system in the vehicle or through a mobile

app.

Whether

intelligent

parking services will eventually find a

spot in the connected car for good is unclear, but the technology is readily

available and OEMs will need to find a way to bring it to market.

65

Steel in the mix

Could life-cycle assessments shift the focus from the tail-pipe?

The drive to cut vehicle emissions remains as strong as ever, but moving forward, OEMs may need to take more into account than simple vehicle emissions. By Xavier Boucherat

F

or most people, the term

The EU aims to drive fleet average

images of gridlocked cities

kilometre – a 40% reduction compared

‘vehicle emissions’ conjures up

rendered

smoggy

by

tailpipe

emissions. OEMs and suppliers alike

have scrambled to bolster the visibility

“

emissions

below

95

grams

per

with the 2007 average of 158.7 grams per kilometre.

of their clean vehicle portfolios in

With

stringent new greenhouse gas (GHG)

acceptance rising, it seems little can

recent years, in preparation for emission targets taking effect in 2021 and

2025

for

US respectively.

Europe

and

the

Few would argue that tailpipe exhaust is responsible for a sizeable portion of global

carbon

emissions.

The

European Commission, for example, estimates that cars are responsible for

some 12% of total EU CO2 emissions.

battery

prices

dropping,

performance improving and customer stop more electric vehicles (EVs)

reaching the road to play their part in hitting these targets. But this excessive

focus on the tailpipe could prove misguided. That’s according to Jonas Adolfsson,

Business

Development

Automotive at SSAB. The advanced high

strength

manufacturer

is

steel a

(AHSS)

part

of

WorldAutoSteel (WAS), a group of 22

We welcome the increased attention to endof-live aspects on vehicle design, where high strength steel can not only help reduce the amount of material used in a vehicle, but can also be fully recycled

66

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Steel in the mix

The mix of materials in automotive applications will increase, and steel can be easily separated from other industrial and domestic waste products by magnetic techniques, so steel will prove a good solution for a dismantler. In addition, steel recycling infrastructures are already well established throughout the world

© SSAB

manufacturers that promotes the

product’s end of life. Using these

Automotive Energy & GHG model,

meet the automotive industry’s needs

outperform lightweight alternatives as

100%

global steel industry’s capability to sustainably and responsibly. Tailpipe

emissions count for only a portion of

benchmarks, they say, steel could a greener choice.

vehicle emissions overall, they argue,

Aluminium, for example, is a popular

originally

help cope with heavy battery weights,

and CO2-per-mile-based targets were conceived

to

achieve

reductions in oil consumption, not necessarily to curb GHG emissions.

In order to tackle GHG emissions

effectively, the group advocates lifecycle assessments (LCA) for vehicles.

choice among EV manufacturers, to but

with

penetration

increasing,

environmental problems already widely

discussed within industry circles today will be brought to the attention of the general public.

These take into account emissions

One is the energy intensity involved in

raw

of

from across the car’s lifetime, from material

extraction

to

the

www.automotivemegatrends.com

manufacturing. Using the University California

Santa

Barbara

WAS argues that an EV made from AHSS

uses

some

36,000

megajoules less energy over its

lifetime than one made from 100% aluminium. The complex procedure for aluminium extraction and refining,

they say, means that aluminium

production uses eight times more energy per kilo than AHSS.

Another is material recycling. Whilst aluminium recycling is fully possible,

says Adolfson, from an LCA point of view, things might not add up. “To recycle aluminium, you have to be

careful to separate different grades,”

67

Steel in the mix he explains. “For example, if you put a

piece of 7000-alloyed aluminium in a

basket for a 6000-alloyed sheet, it destroys the whole melt. Steel does not have this restriction.” In this regard,

aluminium recycling is therefore a more complex task in which it is easier to make costly mistakes.

Another potential material of choice

for lightweighting purposes is carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP) – with

costs decreasing, the high-strength,

low-weight polymer may not be the preserve of the supercar segment

forever. But from a sustainability and cost point of view, says Adolfsson, the future isn’t great, arguing that a life-

cycle assessment (LCA) of a vehicle featuring

CFRP

could

mean

an

increase in GHG emissions.

New lease on life

“

By contrast, says Adolfsson, AHSS is fully recyclable. As he points out,

almost half of the world’s current steel production is made using recycled steel. “The mix of materials in

automotive applications will increase in the near future,” he says, “and steel can be easily separated from other

There are no considerations for OEMs when it comes to the quality or performance of recycled AHSS. Metallic bonds are restored upon solidification, and continually recover their original performance properties, even after multiple loops

industrial

and

domestic

waste

products by magnetic techniques, so

steel will prove a good solution for a

dismantler. In addition, steel recycling infrastructures

are

already

well

established throughout the world.”

For manufacturers, he says, recycled

AHSS presents a win-win situation,

lowering carbon footprint whilst also removing material from the car, meaning

lightweighting

benefits.

“There are no considerations for OEMs when it comes to the quality or

performance of recycled AHSS,” he says. “Metallic bonds are restored

upon solidification, and continually © SSAB

68

recover their original performance

properties, even after multiple loops.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Steel in the mix

At the end of its useful life, a steel product can be converted back into new and better steels, often for use in more demanding applications

© SSAB

At the end of its useful life, a steel

This, coupled with rising material

announced its REALITY project had

new and better steels, often for use in

increasingly valuable commodity.

production techniques, allowing for

product can be converted back into more demanding applications.”

SSAB itself is already using around 20%

recycled

automotive

product

applications.

in

its

Moving

forward, the company has even

greater ambitions – by 2025, it hopes that customers can save a

combined 10 million tonnes in CO2

emissions

through

further

development of the steel. Beyond

that, the company itself is hoping to perfect a ‘fossil free’ steelmaking process by 2045.

Incoming incentives The European Commission estimates

that every year, some seven to eight

million tonnes of waste are generated in the region by end-of-life vehicles.

prices, have made scrap vehicles an Now

tasked

with

extended

responsibility, these developments

have made the challenge for OEMs to build easily recycled vehicles all the

Aluminium recycling, the manufacturer

announced, used up to 95% less energy than primary aluminium production.

In the meantime, SSAB will continue its

aluminium

that a sharpened focus from across

material used. This includes the industry,

which

also

believes it is on course for a more

sustainable future. In October 2017, Novelis claimed that some 55% of materials used in the aluminium making process were recycled. The

body of America’s best-selling car, the Ford F-150, has been largely built from

aluminium since the launch of the 2015 model. According to Novelis, the company collected enough scrap metal

over the 2017 period to produce 30,000 F-150 bodies per month.

A further 50,000 tones of scrap

95% recovery and re-use of vehicles.

body shells. In September 2017, JLR

www.automotivemegatrends.com

further use of recycled materials in cars.

more important, regardless of the

2015 targets for the European End of Life Vehicle Directive called for at least

developed new closed-loop aluminium

collected equates to 200,000 Jaguar XE

efforts in the AHSS sector, and believes the materials industry can only be a good

thing.

“We

welcome

the

increased attention to end-of-life aspects on vehicle design,” says

Adolfsson, “where high strength steel can not only help reduce the amount

of material used in a vehicle, but can also be fully recycled.” Now more than ever, says SSAB, companies need to

discard linear business models and embrace a zero-waste circular model, in which resource efficiency, repairing, recycling

and

upgrading

are

emphasised. With these activities in mind, says the company, steel is the far more manageable option.

69

Tesla's electric truck

The Tesla Semi – powered by disruption For the truck industry, the implications of the Semi are wide and varied, redirecting the legacy OEMs’ powertrain strategies and normalising electric HD trucking, writes Oliver Dixon

W

hatever else may be said

about Tesla, it cannot be accused of reticence, as

underlined by the recent unveiling of the all-electric Semi Class 8 truck. For a vehicle that exists in a very basic

form, asks more questions than it

answers and, which would in normal times be relegated to the category of ‘concept’, Tesla’s Semi has generated

more than the average number of

column inches usually devoted to a heavy truck.

Not just more than its fair share of

column inches, but also more than its

fair share of controversy, rapturous support, disdain and unstinting praise.

Trucks are usually relatively prosaic

objects of interest only to a small

subset of the population. Vehicles tend to divide opinion once they have entered service; Tesla’s electric Semi has managed to achieve the same

level of debate before even entering

production. If Tesla achieves nothing else with the Semi, this, it can be said with absolute certainty, is a first.

It’s difficult to develop much by way of concrete

opinion

and

coherent

analysis about a product that does

not, as yet, exist. That which Tesla rolled into an aircraft hangar in

November 2017 is a concept, and is Source: Tesla Motors

70

thus, it must be assumed, a work in progress. But that should not detract

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Tesla's electric truck

Tesla has not launched a truck but a relatively cheap way of establishing sustainable environmental credentials. And let’s face it: for such credentials, US$5,000 is very cheap indeed

Source: Tesla Motors

from its longer-term significance, and

evidence – that the technology exists to

reaching this baseline. Thus, while the

broader context now seems timely.

and operationally directly substitutive

in functional form? Put simply, no.

so consideration of its place in a Following the glittering launch event,

power a truck that is both financially with a diesel-powered truck.

how much is really known about the

At the heart of transportation is the

is: very little. Yes, the technology exists

supply and demand that sees a point of

Semi? As this goes to print, the answer

to power a truck-shaped object with

electricity. Tesla may lay claim to the highest profile launch of this concept, but it’s a launch of technology that already exists.

And that is about all that is known.

Crucially, very little is known about the

range of costs involved in electric HD trucking, an area so complex that

analysts have only begun to scratch the surface. Understanding that range – both endogenous and exogenous – will

morph analysts’ initial assertions from “yes, the technology exists to produce an electric truck”, into one that asserts

– with confidence and quantifiable

www.automotivemegatrends.com

Tesla Semi exists in shape, does it exist So what just happened?

notion of capacity – fundamental

In a word: disruption. For the legacy

equilibrium

plans will cause significant strategic

reached

when

loads

available are matched by trucks

available. Therefore, de facto, all truck

purchases are substitutive – be it on an intra-brand basis or, as in this case,

based on an intra-fuel basis. Simple

commercial logic and fundamental economic analysis would thus posit

that an electric truck must be equal to a conventional diesel-powered truck

when viewed from an operational cost perspective. Operational cost is a

function of whole life cost – and when it comes to electrification, the notion of operational groping

cost

around

leaves in

everyone

the

dark.

Operational cost is the baseline, and, as

of now, we do not know the true cost of

truck OEMs, Elon Musk’s HD truck disruption, and lead to some very difficult decision-making. It is hard to

remember the point at which – in the North American market – a new

entrant showed up. The two non-USdomiciled OEMs, namely Daimler and

Volvo, effected their respective market entries through acquisition, so we have to go back many decades to find

a start-up. Now with Tesla following Nikola, we have two apparent new

market entrants in the space of under four years. Moreover, they are new market entrants with a differentiated

and thus potentially value-added proposition,

and,

perhaps

most

significant of all, there are two of them.

71

Tesla's electric truck A market constituted of a single player

infers either a perfect monopoly or an

organisation with a product for which

no market exists. A market constituted

“

of two or more players – as we now have – infers a degree of legitimacy.

This, in itself, is perhaps one of the most significant functions of Tesla’s recent announcement, and one that adds a significant degree of disruption

to the future shape of the truck manufacturing landscape.

Source: Tesla Motors

For the legacy truck OEMs, Elon Musk’s HD truck plans will cause significant strategic disruption, and lead to some very difficult decision-making

In a roundabout way, regulation is –

raising capital. Is a truck OEM without

with that positive is, in terms of CSR

OEMs. Regulatory compliance, the

truck OEM? The cautious analysis here

In

strategically – a friend of the legacy ultimate arbiter of a vehicle’s utility, has

shaped vehicle design over the past 30 years. Transportation is a derived

demand, and one that is dependent

upon freight, and upon the trucks to

haul that freight; yet the best truck in the world quickly becomes the worst

an electrification strategy a sustainable

would suggest it is not; electrification has

thus

moved

from

being

a

strategically aggressive position to one

that is strategically defensive. And Tesla has now poured yet more disruption into already muddied waters.

truck in world if it is unable to fulfil that

How much will it cost to participate in

compliance. This is a fundamental and

have been circulated which differ

task through a lack of regulatory ultimately a binary issue, but also one that guides OEM strategy.

Now that we have an apparent and perhaps

viable

alternative,

that

strategic locus has changed. Legacy

OEMs may have been entirely happy to

continue pursuing a diesel strategy; now they cannot – an OEM without a

the electrification revolution? Figures

depending on vehicle range, but these figures are entirely misleading. At this

point in time, for a trucking fleet to derive maximum benefit from Tesla, the buy-in is a mere US$5,000, namely

the cost of reserving a yet-to-be-built

has

not

cheap way of establishing sustainable environmental credentials. And let’s

face it: for such credentials, US$5,000 is very cheap indeed.

From a long-term perspective, Tesla is

forcing not a product but an issue, and the legacy OEMs have no choice but to

respond in kind – and with added

costs. There are many questions surrounding the viability of the Semi, and – it must be observed – not a few

questions about the sustainability of Tesla’s long-term business model.

be seen not as the launch of a truck,

is that electrification is seen – in

72

Tesla

There is little certainty at this stage

That’s an awkward image to present,

damaging when looked at in terms of

regard,

That really does not matter at this

about

and one that is potentially significantly

this

launched a truck but a relatively

electric Semi.

coherent approach to electrification is

an OEM that is falling behind the pack.

and sustainability, hugely beneficial.

anything

in

the

electric

trucking debate, but what is certain

broader perceptual terms – as an overall positive. Being associated

point; the launch of the Semi should

but of a stalking horse. What happens next, and over the coming months and years, will show the extent to which that stalking horse has served its purpose.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine