M:bility | Magazine Q4 2018
Consumers get a taste for driverless delivery
An Automotive World publication
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
Published in September 2018 by:
Welcome... …to the first issue of M:bility magazine. The concept of ‘future mobility’ has shaken up business models that, for decades, have underpinned the long-term visions of global automotive giants. Having strived to perfect vehicles designed for human operation, intentions have since turned to automating that process. And for good reason – humans get distracted, tired and drunk behind the wheel, and society is paying the price. Initial testing has not been without incident. In March 2018 a pedestrian was struck and killed by a test vehicle, something that had long been considered as inevitable. However, few would have imagined that a fatality would result with so many safeguards in place: a test driver was behind the wheel, traffic was light and weather conditions clear. Human error, it appeared, was still a contributing factor. But future mobility is not just about improving safety; investments have poured into connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) technologies in order to tap new revenue streams. Autonomous vehicles could be used to transport people, but also to deliver pizza and other goods, for example. And with electrified powertrains – be it directly from a battery or through a hydrogen fuel cell – the manufacturing process is undergoing a significant transition. The smart factory of the future will produce these vehicles faster, safer and more efficiently than ever before. Automakers are pressing the case that even if those cars are not sold privately, consumers can still be customers through a mobility service. Once on the road, automakers are then tasked with keeping cyber attackers at bay. Each quarter, M:bility will feature exclusive insight from the world’s most influential and inspiring names across this space, and as mobility evolves, so too will our coverage.
Freddie Holmes Editor, M:bility Magazine
Automotive World est. 1992 Automotive World 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth, CF64 2AD, UK www.automotiveworld.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 support@automotiveworld.com ISSN: 2053 776X Registered number: 04242884 VAT number: GB 815 220 173 CEO & Managing Director: Gareth Davies Editor: Freddie Holmes Contributors Arvind Noel Xavier Leo Anjan Hemanth Kumar Megan Lampinen Freddie Holmes Xavier Boucherat Celeste Dooley Production: Anmol Mothy
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
IN THIS ISSUE q4 2018 10
Fuel cell technology – the dark horse of new energy vehicles?
15
Automakers can tap into further weight loss by ditching rubber hoses
18
Is the PHEV the ultimate clean driving machine?
22
Brace for a ‘massive transition’ from aluminium to steel bodies
26
The factory of the future – it’s all about data
30
The multi-energy platform could be a one stop shop for EVs and ICEs
34
Autonomous vehicles to deliver safety, comfort and… Pizza?
38
HD maps – the key to autonomous driving success?
41
Connected cars must be safe and secure, but what’s the difference?
44
The safe, seamless intersection: smart infrastructure will save lives and keep cities moving
48
Say hello to the car that talks back
52
V2X connectivity could be the next step in eliminating human error on roads
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An Automotive World publication
M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
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44
18 10 34 48
22 An Automotive World publication
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
Fuel cell technology – the dark horse of new energy vehicles? While challenges still remain, fuel cell vehicles are primed and ready to take a greater share of the alternative propulsion market, write Arvind Noel Xavier Leo and Anjan Hemanth Kumar of Frost & Sullivan
A
s the automotive world accelerates towards the next generation of emission regulations and fuel economy targets, traditional emission reduction technologies related to the internal combustion engine (ICE) are being rendered obsolete. The industry is in churn, with alternative fuel vehicle technologies for electric vehicles
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(EVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) gaining momentum. However, whilst EVs make rapid gains in consumer popularity and their performance relative to ICEs continues to improve, a dark horse – the fuel cell vehicle – has quietly emerged from among the slew of new passenger vehicle technologies. Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 Fuel Cell Passenger Car Market: Expected Model Launches by OEM, Global, 2016 Onwards Toyota
Toyota Mirai
Toyota SUV
BMW i5 5 Series GT
BMW Hyundai
Hyundai iX35
Hyundai Genesis
Hyundai Nexo
KIA FCV
2 2 4
Porsche
Porsche Pajun
1
Lexus
Lexus LS600
1
FCV Clarity
Honda
1 B class GLC F-Cell F-Cell Audi h-Tron Quattro
Daimler Volkswagen
e-NV FC RE
Nissan
2 VW Passat VW Golf
3
FCV
2
FCV
Ford Chevy Colorado ZH2-Army
General Motors
FCV
Tata 2016
2017
1
2018
2019
2020
2
Magic Iris Ziva
1
2021 onwards
22
Source:Frost Frost && Sullivan Source: Sullivan
have gone through several stages of proving their efficiency, safety, and reliability but have largely been overlooked as other electricdriven technologies, and in particular battery electric vehicles (BEVs), continue to monopolise the hype. By comparison, fuel cell technology has been widely criticised for the number of challenges it faces ahead of commercialisation. These include poor hydrogen fuel infrastructure, complexity of design, high manufacturing and maintenance costs, and difficulty in matching the performance of an EV. In practice, the fuel cell stack is connected to an electric motor, which is connected to the wheels. The fuel cell stack acts as a battery, providing electric power directly to the electric motor, which then sends power to the wheels. Excess electric energy from the fuel cell is supplied to the battery, which uses the stored energy during uphill climbs or hard acceleration.
But while FCEV technology is established, is the industry ready to implement it? The answer is a resounding ‘yes’, as the global automotive market is ready and geared up to adopt a new energy vehicle segment in its portfolio; however, expect a slow yet steady start.
Japan paves the way for new-age technology Japan has been at the forefront of adopting alternative fuel technologies, and was indeed the first automotive market to embrace HEV technology. The Japanese government and local OEMs have pushed to standardise the use of electrified powertrains, and not just in Japan, but globally. At the same time, the Japanese government has encouraged the use of hydrogen fuel technology for large-scale deployments and
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transport applications. Backing such intent, it has invested US$378m to develop infrastructure and offer purchase incentives. Approximately US$1m will be spent on each hydrogen station, while purchase incentives will be provided until 2020. According to recent Frost & Sullivan FCEV research, Japan will leverage the expertise of leading OEMs Honda and Toyota, along with Hyundai of South Korea, to drive its leadership of the fuel cell systems market. Higher investments and funding of hydrogen refuelling stations will result in Japan and the US – particularly the state of California – emerging as major adopters of fuel cell vehicles. The global market for FCEVs is estimated to reach about 583,360 units by 2030, with Asia Pacific (APAC) countries such as Japan and South Korea dominating the market, with 218,651 and 80,440 units, respectively. FCEV markets in Europe and North America are
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 Fuel cell passenger car market: H2 station establishment targets, globally, 2020-2025 Country/Region
H2 Stations Target (year)
California (US)
100 (2020)
Germany (EU)
400 (2023)
United Kingdom
~800 (2030)
Scandinavia
~150 (2020)
Japan
320 (2025)
projected to reach 117,000 units and 118,847 units, respectively, by 2030.
Market size of fuel cell vehicles by region The global adoption of FCEVs in emerging markets will be driven by strong incentives and government policies that will not only boost consumer acceptance, but also private investments by companies seeking to establish a global network of hydrogen refuelling stations. In keeping with this trend, roughly 20 fuel cell car launches by leading
OEMs are expected in global markets over the next five years. Asian OEMs with a first-mover advantage are expected to dominate the market. For instance, unit sales of Toyota FCEVs are projected at 165,000 and Hyundai FCEVs at 148,000 by 2030.
About time for OEMs to launch FCEV models Honda and Toyota lead the industry in fuel cell technology development. Toyota has achieved the highest power output while dramatically reducing the system’s
Fuel Cell Passenger Car Market: Technology Research, Development and Investments, North America, 2016–2017 US Hybrid Corporation, $30,00,000
Oregon State University, $15,00,000 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), $30,00,000 Ivys, Inc, $20,00,000
3M Company, $30,00,000 Automated Dynamics, $15,00,000 City of Ithaca, $3,00,000 Electricore, Inc., $13,00,000 General Motors LLC, $30,00,000
Illinois Institute of Technology, $30,00,000
Source: Frost & Sullivan; base year is 2017
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price and size from previous FCEV offerings, whereas Honda has pioneered a powerful and compact system that uses electric ‘turbo’ air compressors to produce an enhanced hydrogen-air mixture that generates the electricity required for propulsion. Frost & Sullivan believes that a push for FCEVs will likely begin post-2020, when subsidies for BEVs phase out. With essential cost reductions and infrastructure in place, the growth post-2025 is expected to be exponential. Hyundai-Kia and the Honda group are expected to have the highest-selling fuel cell vehicles because they are offered as leasing options in California. As noted above, OEMs are preparing
Fuel Cell Passenger Car Market: Hydrogen for Innovative Vehicles, Europe, 2016 Participants: The UK (Coordinator), Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Austria Project N°: 621219 Total Costs: €39,060,997 EU Contribution: €17,970,566 Duration: April 2014 to September 2017
Member Partners Air Products
IIT
BMW
Element Energy
Brintbranchen
Greater London Authority
Daimler
OMV
Danish Hydrogen Fuel
Toyota
Honda
thinkstep
Hyundai
Source: Frost & Sullivan; base year is 2017
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 Fuel cell passenger car market: technology roadmap, global, 2012–2030 Market Scenario Power density Durability
Technology Demonstration
Estimated price
2,200 hours–4,000 hours
Cost Reduction
5,000 hours– 6,500 hours
8000 hours
2014
$600–$800 per kW
2016
Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell 500+kW Hypercar
80kW–300kW
25 kiloWatts (kW)–80kW $1,000–$1,200 per kW
Mass Production
More than 3,000 W net/litre
Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Proton P t E Exchange h M b (P PEM) Membrane (PEM)
2012
Hydrogen Storage Tank
Market Introduction
1,400 Watts net per litre (W net/liter)–2,200 W net/litre
Fuel cell type Fuel cell stack
Customer Acceptance
<$100 per kW
$200–$300 per kW
2018
2020
2022
2024
Technology development of high-pressure compressed storage (approximately 350–700 bar)
2026
2028
2030
Liquefaction storage (10,000 liters per hour)
Modular pressure varying H2 station
Source: Frost & Sullivan; base year is 2017 to launch a number of fuel cell cars globally, even as significant investments are being made to commercialise fuel cell stacks on cars. Backed by government incentives, the Department of Energy in the US aims to have about 500,000 fuel cell cars on the road by 2030. In the meantime, with an eye on the Tokyo Olympics, the Japanese government is pushing hard for FCEVs and related infrastructure development with an order of 6,000 FCEVs and 160 stations by 2020. Hydrogen infrastructure and positive government policies are certainly paving the way for OEMs to launch FCEV models.
Is there a kink in the system? OEMs need to overcome certain major challenges before fuel cell vehicles can be adopted at the same pace as EVs by the automotive mass market. These include the development of infrastructure, the production of zero-emission hydrogen and the cost of the fuel cell stack.
According to Frost & Sullivan, the California Energy Commission and the European Fuel Development Programme (HyFIVE) have committed to fund the H2 network globally; the above pie chart shows fuel cell technology being heavily funded – US$21m in the US and US$17m in the EU – by private companies in partnerships with OEMs. The cost of implementing a variable hydrogen pressure nozzle fuel station is about US$750,000 to US$1m for storage and generation, which have been the primary choking points for infrastructure expansion. The creation of a modular approach will be the key technology trend for hydrogen fuelling stations in the US, as this will enable them to cater to commercial and passenger vehicles with variable pressures of 350–700 bar. Companies and other industry entities and networks, such as Shell, Ricardo, Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association, Seven-Eleven Japan Co. Ltd, HyFIVE, Linde, California Fuel Cell Partnership, Ballard and UK H2 Mobility, have partnered with
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OEMs to share their expertise in hydrogen production, fuel station network deployment and investment. Co-development of fuel cell stacks and optimisation of fuel cell systems will be crucial to commercialisation. Currently, power density and price are focus areas for vehicle manufacturers bidding to make fuel cell passenger cars a market reality. FCEVs have about 3,500 hours of durability at various speeds while buses have surpassed the 2016 target of 18,000 hours to reach about 23,000 hours of durability. The US Department of Energy aims to reduce the price of an 80 kW fuel cell stack system to between US$30 to US$40. Along with reductions in the price of fuel cell stacks, efforts are also ongoing to lower the cost of hydrogen production to less than US$2/kg using the proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis method. Hyundai and Toyota have pioneered PEM stack cell technology that reduces the overhead cost per unit, and was reported to cost about US$50,000 in 2015. As
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
Thousands
BEV, PHEV and FCEV Scenario Estimations, Global, 2015–2025
,
5,000 BEV
PHEV
4,562
FCEV
4,500 3,932
4,000 3,500
3,303
3,000
2,741
2,500
2,231
2,000
1,818 1,355
1,500
1,039
1,000 500
690 283 204
0
473
419
297
2015
2016
2017
101
51
19
6
2
1
2019
2021
2023
145 2025
Source: Frost & Sullivan; base year is 2017 production volumes increase, costs will fall independently of the technology advancement and manufacturing process.
Upcoming investments - grip to influence Over the next decade, an estimated US$10bn will be invested globally to develop hydrogen technology and infrastructure by a group of private investor companies in conjunction with BMW, Daimler and Toyota. The Californian government has approved expenditure of US$20m annually on hydrogen station deployments, as private companies invested close to US$21.6m by the end of 2017. OEMs such as General Motors and Honda are accelerating the march toward alternative propulsion
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through the co-development of fuel cell technology and the establishment of a manufacturing facility in Michigan in the US. The two companies are making equal investments totalling US$85m in the joint venture, and plan to begin mass production in 2020, leveraging their integrated development teams and shared hydrogen fuel cell intellectual property to create more affordable commercial solutions for fuel cell and hydrogen storage systems. Such partnerships and investments have created a new platform for FCEVs to enter the market through leasing options – offered by Hyundai and Honda – as well as through direct sales and support via Toyota.
Fuel cell vs. battery electric There is no denying that, currently, BEVs are ahead of FCEVs in the competitive stakes.
To some extent this is because, with only three FCEV models available in the global market, there is limited consumer awareness about the advantages of fuel cell technology. Developers have attempted to address consumer apprehensions by proving their superior performance in terms of high mileage, enhanced refuelling time and proven levels of safety. Approximately two million fuel cell vehicles are expected to be on the roads globally by 2030. Japan and South Korea will be pivotal in advancing fuel cell vehicle technology as Toyota and HyundaiKia stake their claim to becoming global leaders in fuel cell technology. The phasing out of BEV incentives globally, starting in 2020, paralleled by government subsidies for FCEVs in Asian countries, including China, Japan, and Korea, will open the floodgates to private sector investments and herald the start of a new era in fuel cell vehicle technology.
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
Automakers can tap into further weight loss by ditching rubber hoses Replacing heavy rubber hoses with thermoplastic tubing presents a small yet significant gain for automakers looking to reduce weight and assembly complexity, learns Freddie Holmes
B
e it through ambition or necessity, automakers have placed a greater focus on curbing vehicle emissions in recent years, leading many to pursue vehicle lightweighting. A relatively straightforward way to do so is to change the materials that are used for a given part or system, and not only in major structural elements of the vehicle. Many discrete components have seen less technological advances over the years, and present new opportunities for further weight savings.
Rubber hoses, for example, may not seem the most significant target for a diet, but vehicles can quickly and easily drop a few pounds by swapping from thick, heavy rubber, to a slender thermoplastic solution. One area in particular that has been highlighted by engineered plastics and fluid management firm dlhBOWLES is the tubing used in the positive crankcase ventilation (PCV) system, an emissions control that recycles crankcase gases into the engine intake.
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There are still a lot of heavy rubber and metal components used in the PCV system, and we have proven in applications that a lot of these can be replaced by lighter thermoplastic assemblies
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
“
Both the PCV and evaporative emissions system are mandatory for anything that has an ICE, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids… The tighter you can package tubing and systems that cannot be eliminated from the ICE, the better
PCVs have been in mainstream use since the 1960s, and are present on virtually all internal combustion engines (ICEs) today. As the engine heats up, a mixture of oil vapour and moisture tries to escape, and the PCV essentially recycles that gas, which contains harmful hydrocarbons. “Early internal combustion engines allowed this gas in the crankcase to escape into the atmosphere,” explained David O’Neal, Engineering Director at dlhBOWLES. “Instead of letting that gas just escape, it is put through the cylinder one more time for the chance to burn off whatever is capable of burning.” A PCV system controls the way this gas is conveyed between the crankcase and the intake, and requires some form of hose or tubing system. While PCVs have become a staple technology on passenger car engines, many still rely on heavy and difficult to install rubber hosing, and simply swapping these hoses to a thermoplastic tubing solution could bring significant benefits both to the finished product and on the manufacturing line. The weight of the overall system could be halved, and overall installation complexity for the PCV system can be significantly reduced. “There are still many heavy rubber and metal components used in the PCV system, and we have proven
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in various applications that these can be replaced by lighter thermoplastic assemblies,” said Daniel Konrad, Vice President of Engineering at dlhBOWLES. “We’ve seen examples of hose systems on the market where weight can be reduced by as much as 70% by switching to a thermoplastic system. This is an
discrete components and systems can lead to useful weight savings, but also a host of other benefits downstream such as reduced design and integration complexity. Swapping from a rubber hose to thermoplastic tubing, for example, brings various benefits and often at a reduced overall cost. “It is one
“
Every gram that you save in the vehicle comes with a benefit, and this is one of the areas that automakers have tapped
overall contribution to vehicle weight saving, and thus CO2 emissions reduction.”
The butterfly effect
of the most cost effective ways of taking weight out,” explained O’Neal. “Every gram that you save in the vehicle comes with a benefit, and this is one of the areas that automakers have tapped.”
Targeting larger single structures to make the biggest weight savings in one go is often seen as a more attractive, straightforward approach to lightweighting. However, this comes at a high cost. By comparison, targeting more
It is not just the hose to consider, but also the parts that hold it in place to ensure it does not wear or become loose over time. The collection of these fasteners, heat shields, and tubing creates a ‘system’, and it is the optimisation
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 of this system that falls into dlhBOWLES’ expertise. Indeed, a complete thermoplastic tubing solution is significantly lighter than a rubber equivalent, and in some applications, can save around half a kilo over the original system. For example, a thermoplastic PCV tubing system used on one pick-up truck engine today weighs just 423 grams (0.93lbs) compared to 927 grams for the original rubber hose system. In addition, total mass is reduced by 54% for this particular application. However, when considering the significant weight savings that can be made through body-in-white (BIW) lightweighting, it would seem reasonable to assume that rubber hosing falls fairly low on
Thermoplastic tube systems can be up to 70% lighter than a more conventionally designed system utilizing rubber hoses, and ‘quick connectors’ can be used instead of metal pinch clamps on the vehicle assembly line. There are also benefits in terms of packaging; given the thinner walls of these tubes, space is freed up in the engine bay. Looking ahead, this may prove useful for automakers seeking to electrify already tightly packed ICEs. Indeed, packaging requirements are expected to continue constricting going forward; the addition of a battery and electric motor brings extra mass that negatively impacts electric driving range and ICE emissions. Anything automakers
“
These are all application areas where you can get significant weight savings without driving up costs the list of priorities. On the contrary, a growing number of automakers are looking at thermoplastics “with great interest,” continues O’Neal, and not only for the PCV, but also for vacuum and engine coolant systems. “These are all application areas where you can get significant weight savings without driving up costs,” he advised. For example, power brake systems use vacuum energy to assist with braking force, and a vacuum brake hose – or tube – transports this energy from the engine intake or vacuum pump to the brake booster cylinder.
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can do to offset that mass becomes increasingly valuable, suggests Konrad. “Both the PCV and evaporative emissions system are mandatory for anything that has an ICE, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids,” he said. “You have to bring in emission control systems, but the engine has to be packaged in a reduced space because of all the electric components in there. The tighter you can package tubing and systems that cannot be eliminated from the ICE, the better it is for the overall application. We’re well positioned to support this worthwhile trend.”
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 Prototype hybrid technologies undergo testing at the Red Bull Ring F1 circuit in Austria
Is the PHEV the ultimate clean driving machine? Powertrain electrification must bring more than just efficiency gains if consumers are to front up at the dealership. Improved traction, acceleration and off-roading prowess are set to sway new buyers in coming years, writes Freddie Holmes
W
hile the automotive industry continues to pump money into developing electrified powertrains, consumers continue to pump fossil fuels into their cars. Owning an electrified vehicle is simply not an attractive proposition for most drivers today, and even mild-hybrids – which operate almost exactly like a
18
traditional gasoline or diesel vehicle – have seen slow adoption. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), future CO2 reductions are “strongly dependent on sales of alternatively-powered cars.” Recent data shows that in the first
quarter of 2018, registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) rose 34.3% and 60.2% respectively in the European Union (EU). Compared to the first quarter of 2017, the number of hybrid electric vehicles registered in the EU, including mild-hybrids, rose 25.7%.
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
However, highly efficient and zero emissions vehicles have been available on the market for years, and in order to create a positive image for electrified powertrains and generate serious demand, they must offer additional benefits above and beyond reduced running costs. “Electrification is mainly driven by legal requirements, and the end consumer is not yet willing to buy these vehicles,” mused Anton Mayer, Senior Vice President of Engineering at Magna Powertrain. “Because of this, electrified powertrains have to offer additional functionalities for drivers.”
decisions, there are extremely good arguments for electrified vehicles – the acceleration is great, for one,” he told M:bility. Magna has been developing a dedicated electrification strategy – dubbed etelligentDrive – to develop various stages of hybridisation. The first elements are based on 48volt (48v) architecture, then PHEV, and eventually full battery electric. Addressing these phases in the run up to BEVs is vital, Mayer explained, as current projections suggest that by 2025, around 95% of new vehicles will continue to feature ICEs, 65% of which will be electrified in some form.
Calculating the benefits Magna may not be the first company that comes to mind when considering powertrain electrification, but its PHEV systems have been in serial production since 2012. A PHEV is often considered a stepping stone toward full electric vehicle ownership, with 48v mild hybrids seen to be a more attractive m i d point.
According to Magna, the benefits of electrifying a conventional ICE can be presented through the unconventional equation of ‘1+1=3’. As Mayer puts it, adding electrification to an ICE brings a raft of additional functionality. “If we combine these systems, we can reduce the number of variants the OEM has to create, and we can optimise the drivability of the vehicle – a very relevant consumer function,” he explained. “We also have the functional cost advantage of a highly integrated solution, and at the end of the day we can significantly reduce emissions. This equation becomes extremely meaningful for OEMs.” Improved traction and handling, and thus safety and driving dynamics, are some of the key areas Magna has been investigating. It has tested a range of technologies on various platforms – from a B-segment hatchback to a V8 premium sedan – including a 48v mildhybrid transfer case that enables an all-wheel drive vehicle to be more efficient than its two-wheel drive equivalent.
More specifically, he believes that the industry must cater to the emotional factor behind many consumers’ purchasing decisions, which is why most new cars are offered with both lowperformance and highperformance variants. Many new car buyers are not tempted by cost efficiency alone, and a g r e a t e r emphasis must be placed on d r i v i n g enjoyment. “For people who make Magna’s high performance 48v transfer case supports ‘extraordinary vehicle dynamics’ emotional
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Images courtesy of Magna
While recent growth rates are significant, the market share of these vehicles remains miniscule compared to that of conventional diesel and gasoline cars; in the first quarter of 2018, diesel and gasoline vehicles accounted for 93.4% of the EU new car market. The proportion of alternative vehicles is expected to grow in coming years as more offerings hit the market; Tier 1 supplier Magna projects that more than 40 different powertrain architecture variations will be available within the next few years.
M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 a typical front axle driven Csegment car as a benchmark for comparison. With a 100kw (135bhp) ICE alone, this vehicle can accelerate from 0 to 100kph (062mph) in around 8.5 seconds, and will emit roughly 120gCO2/km. With no electrification, this vehicle has a 10% gradeability on snow, and suffers from understeer – typical driving behavior for this kind of layout.
Product development and testing is carried out at Magna Powertrain’s engineering centre in St. Valentin, Austria “We’re giving automakers the flexibility to easily integrate 48-volt drives into their existing drivetrain layouts,” said Swamy Kotagiri, Magna’s Chief Technology Officer and President of Magna Powertrain. He added that the company’s electrification strategy is focused on not only improving powertrain efficiency, but also “driving dynamics and safety.” In fact, these elements underpin one of the four pillars of Magna’s etelligentDrive powertrain strategy, which states: “The customer of tomorrow also expects an eVehicle to provide high performance and to be fun to drive.”
Get a grip While BEVs offer a gratifying surge of electric torque, 48v systems cannot provide the same degree of performance. They can, however, facilitate a high performance electric all-wheel drive (eAWD) system, which Magna demonstrated during a June 2018 event held at the Red Bull Ring race circuit in Spielberg, Austria. Here, a range of working prototypes were put through their paces, including a modified BMW 550i with the aforementioned 48v ePower
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split high-performance transfer case. This creates the ‘ideal AWD traction’, and comes with an intelligent ‘mode shifter’ that can switch between torque vectoring – for improved driving dynamics – and 48v regeneration independent of ICE operation for efficiency. Current tests have found that this technology can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 18% compared to the standard vehicle, based on the WLTP cycle. There are significant benefits in terms of traction, too, particularly when it comes to gradeability. This describes a vehicle’s ability to climb steep slopes, and is a crucial factor when driving on slippery and uneven surfaces where the vehicle is at increased risk of losing grip and sliding back. “These AWD systems accentuate the safety of a vehicle by maintaining traction on the road’s surface, through managing torque and getting the vehicle back to normal in the event of slipping or sliding,” explained John Zalewski, Global Product Manager, Driveline at Magna International during a visit to a Michigan-based winter test facility back in 2016. To better understand how electrification can benefit an ICE vehicle beyond efficiency, consider
Add in a 15kw 48v e-motor – often referred to as an ‘eMachine’ – to the same vehicle, and CO2 emissions fall by approximately 16%. An additional 48v system along with an electric rear axle would improve the 0-100kph acceleration by one second, but without increasing CO2 emissions. However, gradeability on snow improves from 10% to 20%. “This is a huge performance increase,” noted Mayer. “The vehicle has improved lateral dynamics on icy roads, and has improved stability during tight cornering. This powertrain also presents a huge opportunity to add additional end consumer functions.” By adding a high voltage eMachine on the front axle as part of a PHEV architecture, this would equate to a total power output of around 185kw. Acceleration from 0 to 100kph would improve slightly – to just under 7.5 seconds – but CO2 emissions could be reduced dramatically by 75%. By moving the eMachine to the rear axle instead of the front, and with the ICE still powering the front axle, this architecture would produce 185kw of power and sprint from 0 to 100kph in around 7 seconds, with the same 75% CO2 emissions reduction. Thanks to eAWD, gradability on snow would be 20%. “But with this car, you also have the capability of driving in zero emission zones, and lateral dynamics can be dramatically improved through electric torque vectoring,” added Mayer. “This
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Electrification is mainly driven by legal requirements, and the end consumer is not yet willing to buy these vehicles. Because of this, electrified powertrains have to offer additional functionalities for drivers - Anton Mayer, Magna Powertrain
allows for independent control of torque on the front and rear axle – longitudinal torque vectoring – which makes driving fun.” The most advanced level of hybridsiation, which Mayer describes as the ‘premium corner stone’ of Magna’s electrification model, will have electric motors on the front and rear axles, as well as the power from the ICE. Here, the combined e-power provided at the front and rear is greater than that of the ICE. In this configuration, Eco, Auto and Sport modes can be set to tailor the way in which electrical torque is delivered, and how the ICE is utilised. Eco mode aims to create the most significant emissions reductions; maximum power and performance is reduced, and driving dynamics is described as ‘comparatively lazy.’ Sport mode offers completely the opposite; best possible traction and
acceleration thanks to longitudinal torque vectoring, and optimum driving dynamics. Auto mode allows the vehicle to shift between these two modes via ‘independent adaption’. Taking to the track, which is used to hold the Austrian Grand Prix, a prototype Volkswagen Golf R developed in-house by Magna proceeds to execute a series of perfectly controlled four-wheel drifts under the expert driving of an ex-Dakar Rally medalist. The capabilities of these different modes quickly becomes apparent; in Eco mode, the vehicle struggles to initiate a controlled slide and instead safely fades wide during hard cornering, encouraging the driver to naturally slow down and perform a smooth arc. But the way in which torque is sent to each wheel can be changed at the tap of a button; Sport mode – or ‘drift mode’ as it is known in this modified Golf R – allows even
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a novice driver to replicate a seemingly skilled manoeuvre with ease. Software directs torque to each individual wheel where necessary in order to control the slide without spinning out, and enables the car to operate in a relatively predictable manner whilst maximising driving pleasure.
Riding the Milky Way The idea behind Magna’s eDrive strategy is to provide OEMs with a solution to what are ultimately conflicting goals: meeting consumer demands for functionality and legislation for CO2 emissions reductions. In general, there are various benefits to each stage of electrification on both sides. For example, PHEVs are seen as the optimum solution for tackling CO2 emissions without compromising driving enjoyment, with an electric rear axle in particular offering optimum vehicle dynamics. A high voltage front and rear axle with eAWD offers the next level of performance whilst maintaining zero emissions capability. Mayer described the progression of this eDrive strategy as ‘riding the Milky Way’ – a nod to the ‘journey of discovery’ when finding numerous combinations and benefits of electrification at each stage. Looking ahead, he is bullish on the future demand for various elements of this eDrive portfolio. “With all our findings, we have already started with OEMs on certain solutions, and are starting to make the future now,” he concluded. “We believe first standard operation procedures (SOPs) for these solutions will come around 2020, and it is a fascinating concept that describes the future of our business.”
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Brace for a ‘massive transition’ from aluminium to steel bodies As EVs begin to hit mass-market volumes, the subject of cost efficiency becomes increasingly important. SSAB believes this will naturally lead to rising demand for steel, writes Freddie Holmes
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Images courtesy of SSAB
t less than one euro per kilo (US$1.17/kg), steel is the most commonly utilised material within light vehicles, and accounts for approximately 60% of the total weight of the average car today.
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Bucking the trend, a number of electric vehicle (EV) models have hit the market at relatively low volumes in recent years, harnessing a range of exceptionally light materials such as aluminium, magnesium and carbon fibre composites. The BMW i3, for example, featured a carbon fibre-intensive body structure, and at its launch appeared to show a new direction for vehicle design as a direct result of e-mobility. However, once automakers begin ramping up volumes to tap the mass market, it is expected that steel will become the material of choice for several reasons.
A new twist to an old debate The subject of steel versus aluminium is not new by any means, and suppliers in the industry have long spoken of a ‘battleground’ between the two materials fighting for a place on new platforms. Both sides have fought their corner, but Stockholm-headquartered steel giant, SSAB, believes steel has the edge when it comes to the mass market. The supply chain is well prepared to cope with a rise in steel use, and has continued to grow over the last decade; between 2010 and 2017, global crude steel production increased by more than 250 million tonnes. As highlighted above, steel is also comparatively inexpensive, and manufacturers are well
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Many traditional manufacturers have tried to keep steel in their BEV solution because they have adapted the traditional combustion body to the electrical drivetrain
acquainted with how the material performs from a safety perspective. Carbon composites, and aluminium to an extent, are typically more challenging to work with. While aluminium is extremely light, and helped the Ford F-150 to shed 700lbs (317kg) when transitioning away from a steel body, it can be harder to form and comes with a higher price tag. “Aluminium tears more easily than steel, so the sorts of sharp edges, creases and very tight radii that we love to craft in the design studio can sometimes be difficult for the engineering team to create in reality,” notes Wayne Burgess, Production Studio Director at Jaguar. Arnaud Guerendel, Global Automotive Director at SSAB, highlights that material trends within the automotive mass market are unlikely to change despite the disruption of EVs. “Most new cars in production today are based upon a steel solution,” he says. “If a manufacturer is to build more than four or five million cars a year, it must be efficient both industrially and in terms of cost.”
While SSAB has cemented its automotive business on orders from established global automakers over the years, there are the demands of new entrants to consider, many of which have the concept of ‘future mobility’ in mind. “A new generation of OEMs has developed around battery electric propulsion, and they have been building their cars almost fully from aluminium because, at these low volumes, they can build whatever they want,” observes Guerendel. “There are two sides: the big players that need massive efficiency from their materials; and the new players that disrupt with a completely different approach to material assembly.” There are varying schools of thought when it comes to producing electric vehicles. While some platforms are developed from the ground up to house electric powertrains, others adapt an existing platform. The Volkswagen e-Golf, for example, is based on the same platform as the original Golf. The Renault Zoe EV shares the Clio platform, and the Kia Soul EV was originally launched with gasoline and diesel engines. “Many traditional
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manufacturers have tried to keep steel in their BEV solution because they have adapted the traditional combustion body to the electrical drivetrain,” observes Guerendel.
Mass market means steel While high volume production is not certain to push OEMs toward one material and away from another – without considering the impact of import tariffs – the factor of cost efficiency does become more pressing. With a low volume vehicle in the premium segment, higher material costs can be offset by savings made elsewhere in the vehicle, or absorbed by a higher retail price. The same can be said for EVs across any segment, sales of which remain low in most markets aside from China and Norway, and a forecourt price well above a comparable combustion engine equivalent. Guerendel is confident that automakers old and new will naturally look to more cost effective solutions once volumes increase; Bloomberg’s latest
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 electric vehicle outlook projects global new EV sales to grow from 1.1 million units in 2017 to 30 million in 2030.
Images courtesy of SSAB
As an example, SSAB has been approached by one EV brand, with annual volumes of around 500,000 units per year, to benchmark the price differential between switching from an aluminium body to advanced highstrength steel. Guerendel suggests that if this automaker began producing more than one million units annually, and the price of an aluminium body over steel reaches between US$1,000 and US$1,500, “the decision will be made to convert from aluminium to steel in the economic interests of the company.” He adds that: “This phenomenon is also present with other more traditional brands that have been successful with aluminium-based models. If you look a little deeper into what they are doing today, many are transferring to steel.”
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Steel is primarily favoured for high volume production
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This trend can be seen with both traditional combustion engine vehicles and EVs. In contrast to the Tesla Model S, which utilised an aluminium intensive body and chassis, the ‘mass market’-oriented Model 3 uses primarily mild, highstrength and ultra-high strength grades of steel. Audi has gradually upped its steel content in the previously aluminium-intensive A8 platform; in the 2009 model, aluminium accounted for 92% of the materials used in the body structure, with steel making up 8%. In the 2018 model, aluminium fell to 58%, while steel rose to 40.5%. It is worth highlighting that the argument is not that steel will become the only material used in all new vehicles, rather that it is likely to take the lion’s share of overall materials in high volume platforms. The body-in-white (BIW), for instance, which is the heaviest single structure of a
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Images courtesy of SSAB
M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
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If a manufacturer is to build more than four or five million cars a year, it must be efficient both industrially and in terms of cost
vehicle, will likely be made from advanced high-strength steel. Body panels could still be made from aluminium or a polymer, and the powertrain could consist of a multi-material mix. “The truth is in the perfect combination of material and function,” says Guerendel. “But steel is primarily favoured for high volume production, and studies have demonstrated that in terms of cost efficiency for mass production, around 85% of cars use steel and will continue to use steel.” There are also EV-specific opportunities. Protective housings for the battery pack could be formed from steel, for example, and SSAB is currently developing solutions to support “cheaper and safer solutions at almost the same weight compared to aluminium or other materials.” Given the location and weight of EV batteries, Guerendel also expects the architecture of the chassis and
body to change dramatically, bringing in new grades of steel.
‘A massive transfer from aluminium to steel’ In the premium segment, where price is slightly less pertinent, OEMs can afford to produce vehicles with more exotic materials because the higher margin can absorb the hit. Looking ahead, players that have so far utilised aluminium or carbon fibre bodies to unlock the most significant weight savings may switch to steel as demand for EVs increases. “If Tesla, for example, begins producing around three million cars a year and the cost of an aluminium solution becomes too high, someone will question the cost efficiency,” muses Guerendel.
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Earlier in July, Tesla announced that it had signed an agreement to set up its first factory in China, the world’s leading market for new EV sales, with a planned capacity of 500,000 units per year. The company’s existing Fremont factory in California is also reported to have annual capacity of 500,000 units. Axel Schmidt, Global Automotive Lead at Accenture, notes that there will likely be a near-even mix between traditional and battery electric powertrains within the next decade or so. “If current projections hold true, it seems realistic to presume that by 2030 there will be a 35-35-30 split between new diesel, gasoline, and electric cars sold in Europe respectively,” he commented. How this trend impacts material selection for upcoming EV platforms remains to be seen, but as Guerendel concludes: “I expect that you will see a massive transfer from aluminium to steel in future.”
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The multi-energy platform could be a one stop shop for EVs and ICEs As electrified powertrains become the norm, ArcelorMittal believes automakers will seek a body-in-white that can accommodate a range of powertrains under mass market price constraints. By Freddie Holmes
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hile lightweighting will remain an important element to the design of electrified vehicles, improvements to battery technology are expected to have a greater impact on driving range. As such, a focus on cost-efficiency could see a change in preference for body structure materials, with additional weight savings afforded by more exotic materials no longer warranting their premium to the same degree. For example, elements of an electric vehicle (EV) that have more recently been constructed with aluminium for weight saving purposes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; such as doors, wheels and the body-in-white (BIW) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; could be monopolised by steel for mass market platforms.
The multi-energy platform can house anything from a mild hybrid to a fully electric vehicle
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The argument follows a steady trend by automakers to closely integrate e-mobility into their future strategies, with electrified vehicles no longer residing as just a premium option.
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 In July 2017, Volvo Cars stated that from 2019 the brand would go ‘all electric’, and was one of the first major steps to embrace e-mobility across an entire portfolio. This was admittedly a widely misinterpreted statement, which suggested that all future vehicles would be fully electric. In fact, all new Volvo cars would simply feature electrification of some sort, and thus most are still likely to carry an ICE. Three fully electric Volvo models and two fully electric Polestar models will launch between 2019 and 2021. Following the fallout of the dieselgate scandal, Volkswagen too directed its focus toward EV
Marketing Officer, Global Automotive & Mobility Solutions at ArcelorMittal. One of the largest steel producers globally, the company projects that by 2025 roughly 50% of the European new car market will consist of electrified vehicles, which include mild hybrids, full hybrids – such as those popularised by Toyota – plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For all plug-in vehicles, there are a number of challenges facing automakers, namely range and charging efficiency. ArcelorMittal believes improvements to battery technology could reduce the emphasis placed on
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The arrival of EVs is confirmed for coming years, and we see this impacting the pipeline of BIW architecture leadership, and in February 2018 established a dedicated e-mobility division. It has also been developing the Modular Electrification Toolkit (MEB) – a scalable platform designed specifically for mass market EVs. Various other automakers have made similar moves, with Hyundai and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance also making prominent steps to develop battery electric solutions. Then there are automakers that have built their entire business around the electrified and fully electric powertrain, such as BYD and Tesla respectively. “The arrival of EVs is confirmed for coming years, and we see this impacting the pipeline of BIW architecture,” observed JeanMartin Van der Hoeven, Chief
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lightweighting, and instead direct automakers to utilise materials that offer the most cost efficient solution for the vehicle structure. Those body structures may also be designed to house various electrified powertrains for the same reason.
The challenge facing automakers Regulatory pressure is forcing the industry to make significantly cleaner vehicles. Current targets from the European Commission require automakers to meet a fleet average of 95g CO2/km by 2025, with proposals for a further cut to 66g C02/km by 2030. In China, the current new energy vehicle (NEV)
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 mandate rewards manufacturers for producing electrified vehicles, and penalises those that fail to meet an NEV score of 10% in 2019, and 12% in 2020. The industry has found this compliance a challenge, and many of the cleanest combustion engines today struggle to get below 100g CO2/km. Mild hybrids can improve figures to somewhere between 8090g CO2/km, but in order to achieve 66g CO2/km and below, plug-in hybrids and BEVs are deemed necessary. “With an internal combustion engine, you can only get your CO2 emissions down to a certain level before you have to start electrifying the engine,” commented Nick Molden, Chief Executive of Emissions Analytics. “The CO2 dynamic will be the strongest thing to push manufacturers toward EVs.” The UK government recently introduced an online vehicle check that lists official CO2 emissions for ‘newer’ cars that have hit the market over the last five years or so. The 2018 Audi A3, fitted with a 2.0-litre gasoline engine, can emit between 128g and 156g CO2/km depending on the power rating, transmission and body style. By comparison, the 2017 gasoline plug-in hybrid A3 has an official CO2 emissions rating of just 38g/km, according to the online checker. “There is no other option than to have a certain minimum
percentage of PHEVs or BEVs in the fleet to meet these CO2 numbers,” said Van der Hoeven.
The multi-energy platform A wide variety of products fall under the umbrella term of ‘electrified vehicles’, and accurately forecasting how both consumer demand and automaker strategy will accommodate these powertrains is a tall order. Van der Hoeven predicts a ‘one platform fits all’ solution for new energy vehicles. “It will be very difficult to see how the market develops in the coming years,” he said. “We know that various options are available, and believe this will lead to a mainstream solution for the BIW architecture known in the industry as the ‘multi-energy platform’.” ‘Multi-energy’ is a phrase used by various stakeholders in the industry, most notably Citroen and Opel under the wider PSA Group strategy for flexible electrified vehicle platforms. A multi-energy platform accommodates the full range of electrified powertrains: anything from a 48-volt mild hybrid to a pure BEV. A tunnel in the underbody structure caters for both the ICE and its driveline, but also for the battery packs of an EV or PHEV. However, due to the weight of these batteries, the
gravity point of the BIW is lowered, and the underbody structure must be redesigned to optimise crash safety. “With the higher weight of the batteries we foresee more advanced high strength steel solutions – and in particular hot stamping – in the underbody structure,” explained Van der Hoeven. “It also probably leads to a situation where, due to the higher weight of the underbody structure, you need to reinforce the wheels and chassis.” While such examples are scarce today, Van der Hoeven is confident that automakers will reconsider steel wheels as a primary option on mass market EVs in order to keep costs to a minimum. This again depends on the continued improvement of battery technology, which takes some of the pressure away from lightweighting. “There are some very attractive steel designs for wheels, which can easily compete with the beauty of aluminium,” he said. “You may see that aluminium wheels turn back to steel for passenger cars.”
Future outlook ArcelorMittal believes that BIW solutions will utilise higher volumes of steel in future as OEMs weigh up the benefits of either
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With the higher weight of the batteries we foresee more advanced high strength steel solutions – and in particular hot stamping – in the underbody structure
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 buying more advanced batteries, or instead paying for more complex lightweighting strategies. Van der Hoeven suggests that as the dollar per kilowatt hour cost of a battery pack falls in coming years, extremely light materials such as carbon fibre reinforced plastic (CFRP) and aluminium are likely to fall out of favour. Steel, he says, is an attractive option for mass-market platforms. “When considering the cost of materials for a pure BEV, carbon fibre is totally out of the picture, because the cost is US$15 per kilogram of weight saved. Aluminium is also out because the cost is US$5/kg, but steel is still in
Tesla Model 3 also features a steel-intensive body structure in contrast to the primarily aluminium Model S. “This is interesting because given the CO2 challenges facing ICEs, some of the exposed panels in premium vehicles have been aluminium in order to save additional weight. But with the EV, they will be going back to steel,” observed Van der Hoeven. “Steel has a strong outlook for years to come.” It is worth noting, however, that current plans do not suggest a unanimous shift toward steelbased EVs; the NIO ES8, a sevenseat electric SUV for the Chinese market will feature an aluminium-
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With the arrival of more efficient batteries, weight saving to improve electric driving range will become less important. This means that efficient steel solutions are in, and aluminium and carbon fibre are out because it is about US$2.5/kg,” he explained. “With the arrival of more efficient batteries, weight saving to improve electric driving range will become less important. This means that efficient steel solutions are in, and aluminium and carbon fibre are out.” Numerous reports suggest that the next generation BMW i3 is set to return to a steel-intensive design under the guise of the iX1, a similarly sized five-door crossover EV. The Volkswagen ID hatchback, slated to enter production in 2019, will be based on the brand’s new MEB architecture with a mix of steel, aluminium and magnesium. The
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intensive body, for example. The current Hyundai Ioniq platform, which is offered with both hybrid and EV powertrains, features an aluminium and steel body structure. “For the next eight to ten years, CO2 emissions will remain an important consideration, especially when ICEs make up a significant part of the vehicle parc, be it via a mild hybrid or a PHEV,” concluded Van der Hoeven. “OEMs will strive to have the most efficient BIW architecture in terms of weight saving at the most affordable cost – that pushes us into a direction where the development of steel solutions will accelerate.”
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The factory of the future â&#x20AC;&#x201C; itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s all about data Big Brother began as a social experiment to observe human interaction, and factories around the world could come under the same scrutiny as a result of Industry 4.0. This time, however, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the robots that are under surveillance, learns Freddie Holmes
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ndustry 4.0 is often seen as a move to further integrate mechanical automation within factories. However, this transition is already well established, and one supplier believes the trend is instead shaped by the impact of Big Data. Whilst the term Big Data may be somewhat vague, its appeal and relevance within manufacturing operations is clear. Modern automotive manufacturing takes place on a global stage, and the same vehicle platform can be produced at various locations. Parts are produced at high volume, high speed, and often via complex processes. Quality and efficiency is an absolute must, and delays must be avoided at all costs. Whilst data and software are already leveraged heavily to optimise these factors today, there remains a disconnect between the various elements of the production line that some believe must be addressed.
Industry 4.0 will bring a focus on machine learning as opposed to automation
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Gestamp, a leader in body-inwhite, chassis and mechanisms, has been investigating how the
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Images courtesy of Gestamp
M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
Gestamp has launched an Industry 4.0 pilot to optimise its hot stamping lines trend can improve its manufacturing operations on a global scale. Pilot programmes are in their early stages, but the results have shown promise so far, and are set to roll out worldwide. “Industry 4.0 is new to us, but we are well positioned,” remarked Francisco Riberas, the supplier’s Executive Chairman during a visit to its Abrera plant, which neighbours SEAT’s Martorell
factory in Barcelona, Spain. Riberas was also keen to dilute some of the hysteria associated with Industry 4.0, noting that change may not be as radical as some marketing would suggest. “Digitalisation provides more tools and data to take current industries to the next level. However, I do not believe it is going to be a revolution,” he said. “There will not be a huge impact that will change the world; the idea is that
there is a lot of data, and we now have the opportunity to connect all of our plants.” René González, Director of Advanced Manufacturing & Equipment Standardisation at Gestamp, explained that the goal is to create a “more durable system” and to use data analytics to optimise the line. He too argued that Industry 4.0 is often misunderstood. “The fourth
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The fourth industrial revolution is about software and the Internet… Sometimes people confuse robotics and automation with data analytics - René González, Gestamp
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Algorithms based on intensive data analysis will be rolled out to optimise all lines industrial revolution is about software and the Internet… Sometimes people confuse robotics and automation with data analytics,” he mused.
‘What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas’
production lines on a global scale. Data will be continually monitored by software, and human workers will have access to real-time reports on the production line. Surveillance of data will be carried out in tandem by humans and artificial intelligence (AI), the latter of which will be continuous and on a monumental scale.
Part of the idea is to gain a complete understanding of how a part is produced from start to finish, not only by adding sensors where necessary, but also by using data analysis to create smart algorithms. Parts should be produced with greater efficiency, with less waste, and at higher quality.
“With Industry 4.0, it is like Big Brother,” remarked Bernhard Feyo, Industry 4.0 Project Manager at Gestamp. “There used to be a disconnect between the various elements of a production line – the phrase ‘what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas’ was true for the way data is shared – but with Industry 4.0, we will know everything there is to know about a given process.”
All parts will become traceable; if there is a defect on a line of connected machines performing the same operation, the machine at fault needs to be identified and fixed. Machine learning algorithms will improve operational efficiency, and can be implemented across entire
Rather than being isolated from the outside world as the original television series did for its human participants, the ‘Big Brother’ effect of Industry 4.0 will entail the complete opposite; manufacturing is set to become transparent, with insights shared and expertise leveraged globally.
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“We always think locally with pilots, but in the long-term we plan on expanding this everywhere, so we need to prepare our systems and projects to cover all of Gestamp’s activities,” said González.
Applications in practice Industry 4.0 is widely presented as a future trend, but for Gestamp, it is already a reality, and is being used to monitor a number of its hot stamping lines. Hot stamping is a highly complex thermal and mechanical process that requires huge manufacturing lines, which can be up to 15 metres tall (50 feet) and 65 metres long. Steel blanks are heated at temperatures of more than 900 degrees Celsius before immediately being pressed and cooled in a special die. The process needs to be performed quickly and efficiently to achieve maximum quality, and thousands of signals need to be controlled perfectly at the same time.
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 “Due to the complexity of this process, we decided to launch an Industry 4.0 pilot to increase the overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) of our hot stamping lines,” said Laura Viñolas, Industry 4.0 Technical Manager at Gestamp. “We measure the performance of the line – how fast things are produced – and the level of availability, which describes the machine’s run time versus stop time. Quality – the number of good parts versus bad parts – can also be measured, and Industry 4.0 can have a positive impact on all of these things.” In July 2018, six presses and various robots and tools will be connected as part of a pilot project at a Gestamp factory in Poland. Various elements will become sensorised, allowing insight into aspects such as raw material traceability, tooling temperature, the processing status of mechanical presses and quality control. As a result, the number of data signals generated by this line will grow from just 3,
opinion is handling the quantity of information you have in front of you,” explained González. “After gathering this data, you need to calculate and standardise this information.” Other Industry 4.0 pilots are in place at factory lines in Abrera, Barcelona; Llanelli, Wales; and Dongguan, China to name a few. By the end of 2018, 48 lines are due to be connected.
Harnessing Big Data Once a line is connected, the data it generates is stored, processed and analysed in order to recognise patterns and develop advanced analytics. It can then be used to detect and predict failures and deviations on a line, thus improving the quality and availability of finished parts. In effect, this means that in-line antierror checks are carried out during the process itself, rather than
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vehicle manufacturer should receive a defective part. “Every significant detail of every process for each individual part is known and stored,” explained Gestamp’s Feyo. “Ultimately this means we will direct less investment into ensuring quality control, as that happens in real-time whilst the process is running.” Jose Miguel Casa, Territory Manager, Spain & Portugal at OSIsoft, which is working with Gestamp to connect sensor-based data, systems and people, noted that “there will be massive amounts of data to collect, and massive amounts of data to analyse” as part of the transition toward Industry 4.0. “Data is the less sexy piece of the puzzle, but it enables this convergence,” he added. This underpins Gestamp’s view, and as González puts it: “Big Data is the basis of Industry 4.0, and is the secret to everything that goes on at our facilities.” Machine automation may well increase across the industry, as
With Industry 4.0, it is like Big Brother… We will know everything there is to know about a given process
to 30,000. “We want to have access to all of the information that can influence the quality of a part,” explained González. Gestamp’s various manufacturing processes are set to become ‘intelligent’ by using algorithms that can run through that data in real-time. This is a challenging task, even with software in the loop. “The hardest work in my
- Bernhard Feyo, Gestamp
simply checking finished products afterwards. Any part that is produced will have its own traceability code and a unique digital quality certificate (DQC). If the part reaches the next operation having failed a single element of its DQC – which has not been revalidated by a human engineer – the part will be flagged and returned. In doing so, no
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many expect, during the shift to Industry 4.0. Many will also hope that it does not see the eviction of workers from the manufacturing line, but for Gestamp, the role of the human is expected to expand. Data scientists, for example, are being brought in to the factory for the first time, and it is evident that machine learning is of greater interest for the company moving forward.
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Autonomous vehicles to deliver safety, comfort andâ&#x20AC;Ś Pizza? Driverless cars have been marketed with the promise of dramatically improving road safety, but consumers have been slow to warm up to the idea of autonomous mobility. For some OEMs, autonomous pizza delivery appears to be a more palatable use case for the technology. By Megan Lampinen
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utonomous vehicles are going to remove the element of human error, which lies behind about 95% of all crashes. That promise, which brings with it a vision of safe and smoothly flowing traffic along the roadways, has prompted OEMs and suppliers to invest billions of dollars and countless development hours into the technology. There are plenty of welcome sideeffects to autonomy, such as more free time, which can be spent working or sleeping while the car drives itself, but it is the safety aspects that have been the driving force. And yet, some of the earliest test cases have centred on pizza delivery. On the surface it may not appear the most lucrative business model for this expensive technology, but it does point to the early potential for goods movement in the application of autonomous technology.
Domino's and Ford Ford has teamed up with the likes of Dominoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Pizza and Postmates to trial self-driving delivery services
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Domino's Pizza, for example, envisions a future in which fleets of autonomous vehicles shuttle hot
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The partnership with Domino’s Pizza will explore how consumers interact with self-driving vehicles
pizza to homes across the US. To realise that, it's working with Ford on a test pilot in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Ford is providing the car, a special Fusion Hybrid Autonomous Research Vehicle, to deliver pizza orders to select customers. An updated version of the Domino's Tracker app allows customers to track the delivery vehicle through GPS. Then, instead of waiting inside for the food to be delivered to their front door, the customer has to go outside and fetch it directly from the car using a unique code.
The aim of the Ann Arbor test is not to evaluate the vehicle's technological performance, but instead to gauge how the customer interacts with a driverless delivery system. "We are really looking at the consumer insights gained in this test, what we call the 'last 50 feet' between the customer’s home and the car," Domino's told M:bility. "We know that the car and technology companies are working on the self-driving portion of the cars pretty intently, so that is not our focus."
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It is indeed strange that some of the first use-cases are in pizza delivery, but why not? - Nick Gill, Capgemini
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In this case, Ford isn't particularly interested in the technological aspect either. In fact, the vehicle will be driven by a human who remains quiet and inactive during the actual pizza retrieval process. "We have chosen to manually-drive the self-driving vehicle for this research project because the objective is to study customer interaction with the vehicle during the delivery process," a spokesman for the OEM confirmed. "We are not testing the self-driving capability in this phase of the research, therefore manual driving is the safest way to conduct the study." Ford has teased an update on the Domino’s pilot programme in the future, but will not be sharing any lessons learned just yet.
Toyota and Pizza Hut Others are at it as well. Toyota is partnering with Pizza Hut on applications of its e-Palette
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Having a foot into this business as early as possible is seen by OEMs as their foray into being mobility firms rather than car manufacturers - Arunprasad Nandakumar, Frost & Sullivan
autonomous concept vehicle. Pizza Hut has long been working to optimise the overall delivery experience, and this is one of the latest steps in that journey. "In our ongoing and relentless pursuit to own and define the modern pizza experience for our customers, we are focused on technology-based solutions that enable our team members and drivers to deliver even better customer experiences," said Artie Starrs, President, Pizza Hut, US. He described the project with Toyota as part of its wider efforts to "define the pizza delivery experience of the future."
The fully automated, all-electric ePalette concept reflects Toyota's vision of what Automated Mobility as a Service (Autono-MaaS) could look like. Along with Pizza Hut and Toyota, development efforts will be guided by the insights from other e-Palette Alliance partners including Amazon, DiDi, Mazda and Uber. Toyota doesn't expect to start testing the e-Palette Vehicle Concept for a couple of years yet, with nothing happening before 2020. However, starting this year the partners will begin looking at
more near-term ways to improve the delivery ecosystem. In particular, they are trialling dual communication technology in Pizza Hut delivery vehicles to capture data on driver patterns and behaviours. "The common ground between our two global brands is fuelled by innovation that enriches peoples' lives," explained Zack Hicks, Chief Executive Officer of Toyota Connected. He regards projects like the e-Palette Alliance as a big part of the company's investment in "products and services that help provide mobility for all."
Toyota’s e-Palette autonomous concept vehicle could enter testing from 2020
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 key services where OEMs are likely to monetise autonomous technology in the next decade. While it is not the most revenue generating, it is likely to be one of the early use cases," explained Arunprasad Nandakumar, Team Leader - Chassis, Safety & Autonomous Driving Systems, Mobility, at Frost & Sullivan (F&S).
Consumers may be more open to automated delivery than mobility
Test bed Delivery companies are clearly keen to tap into the potential of autonomy for the competitive edge it can provide. Some of the technology at play is truly innovative, with implications that stretch far beyond pizza. "This is an easy test bed for the technology's performance and consumer reactions," commented Nick Gill, Chair of the Automotive Council at Capgemini. "There will clearly be niche applications that become important before mainstream autonomy kicks in. I would think they will be B2B, as there is so much more control and fewer stakeholders. That could entail urban mobility with city authorities or mobility companies; tests on isolated stretches of freeway and campuses or enclosed residential areas."
Going by feedback from consumers, F&S suggests that goods mobility could prove a particularly promising entry point for autonomous functionality. Where consumers may hesitate over people-moving applications, they are more open to those that move products. "Our consumer survey reveals that initially, customers are likely to adopt autonomous features related to goods mobility rather than people mobility. The reason why OEMs are partnering with so many service providers is to understand how customers will interact with these vehicles, be it in mobility or logistics services," Nandakumar told M:bility.
Gill also pointed to the irony behind some of the applications that are emerging through the pizza delivery segment. "It is ironic that for years the auto industry has criticised itself for not being able to provide good customer information about car deliveries, when pizza companies do it as a matter of course," he pointed out. "I can track my pizza delivery, but I canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t track my luxury car delivery. It is indeed strange that some of the first use-cases are in pizza delivery, but why not?"
The pizza test case specifically targets low-speed urban applications, a segment that poses vast potential in general. "We expect vehicle manufacturers like Toyota to scale their delivery shuttles to people mover shuttles in city applications," he added. Its e-Palette model, for example, has been designed from the start to be scalable and customisable for a range of MaaS businesses. It can be built with a variety of body styles, allowing it to transform between a goods mover and a people mover.
Pizza before people
"At the end of the day, the servicification of the automotive industry is definitely one that the OEMs are gearing up for," observed Nandakumar. "Having a foot into this business as early as possible is seen by OEMs like Ford and Toyota as their foray into being mobility firms rather than car manufacturers."
In its favour, pizza delivery trials do offer OEMs important capabilities. Among them is customer interaction, the stated focus of the Ford-Domino's trial. "Curbside delivery is one of the 12
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HD maps – the key to autonomous driving success? In future, turn-by-turn signals afforded by traditional GPS navigation will no longer cut it when the car is in control. By working with existing vehicle sensors, a HD map can extend a driverless car's line of sight beyond the next corner, writes Celeste Dooley
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n-vehicle maps have seen great transformation from the earliest days of the automotive industry; from paper maps to digital solutions on a touch screen, the evolution of navigation has been a much-considered factor in automotive development. Now, technology companies are taking this one step further to support the growing trend of autonomous
driving, by integrating a new age of high-definition (HD) maps into new vehicles. HD maps enable vehicles to see beyond the driver’s field of view, providing an accurate representation of the road ahead and information on the surrounding environment. Though not limited to use only within autonomous
vehicles, this technology will be particularly beneficial to vehicles with automated features. In fact, HD map information could be critical to their success.
Autonomy is not the limit Although self-driving vehicles will not rely solely on HD maps, this technology can significantly enhance the functionality of autonomous driving features. “Lower levels of autonomy can function without an HD map, but it is not as safe or smooth,” Willem Strijbosch, Head of Autonomous Driving at TomTom, told M:bility. The company, which has been bulking out its capabilities in autonomous driving, stresses that GPS is no longer accurate enough for vehicles that are equipped with as low as Level 2 autonomous features. HD maps are not the solution, then, but they are a critical piece to the puzzle. This is also true for vehicles on the market today, many of which feature low levels of automation provided through advanced
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The vehicle’s sensors and HD map software all work in concert – they are each other’s redundancy
driver assistance systems (ADAS). “The TomTom HD Map is not limited to autonomous driving, but can also be leveraged to fulfil a broad range of ADAS applications such as Predictive Powertrain Control, Highway Pilot, and Adaptive Cruise Control,” Strijbosch explained. “If there is very dense traffic ahead, you can ‘see’ through all of those cars, and understand what is around the corner or even two kilometres ahead of you. It does not matter if it is snowing or pouring down with rain, the map remains clear and increases the safety of these assistance systems.”
Building trust Consumer trust is essential to the success of autonomous vehicles, and players are seeking ways to garner this trust. A recent study conducted by the American Automobile Association (AAA) found that only 20% of respondents would trust a selfdriving car. One area causing concern for many consumers is the idea of sensor failure – if the car cannot ‘see’, can it drive? Various passenger cars on sale today are equipped with sensors that can identify road markings,
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other vehicles and unexpected obstacles in the road. RoadDNA, a ‘suite of localisation attributes’ within TomTom’s HD mapping technology, acts as a level of redundancy if sensors are obstructed by dirt or poor weather conditions. This is a common issue today, with heavy rainfall often rendering camera sensors useless. Having the map as an additional layer of sensing could remove some of the doubts surrounding ADAS. Improved road safety is generally presented as the greatest benefit of autonomous driving, with a significant reduction in human error behind the wheel. The
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Level 2 vehicles are on the road today without a HD map, but all of the car manufacturers are looking to integrate these maps to make their systems smoother, and ultimately, safer
additional safety that HD mapping technology brings is essential in order to achieve this vision, believes Strijbosch. But it is not just human error that is an issue today; the capabilities of some ADAS features also need to improve. He highlights recent events that have shown lapses in currently available highway pilot systems. In March 2018, one Tesla driver was killed when his Model S collided with a concrete lane divider on a Mountain View highway. With Autopilot engaged at the time, the system struggled to identify the correct trajectory and hit the barrier head on. “Instances where these systems fail might have been prevented with a HD map because the vehicle would have known there was a curve coming, that there was a concrete barrier ahead, and that road markings were quite poorly visible,” suggested Strijbosch. “The vehicle’s sensors and HD map software all work in concert – they are each other’s redundancy.”
An interconnected system Ideally, HD maps should be integrated with other connected features within a vehicle, explains Tomaso Grossi, Senior Product
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Marketer at TomTom Automotive. “We don’t see HD maps as standalone products. They don’t exist in a vacuum and must be used as part of the automated system in a vehicle,” he said. “We believe in a closed-loop system, whereby we produce the most accurate, robust and reliable maps in the cloud, deliver these systems to the car, and then leverage multiple sources – such as different types of vehicle sensors – to ensure this map is upto-date, safe and matches reality.” To further improve its HD maps, TomTom is currently utilising observations from a variety of sensors, including cameras, within the vehicle. “All cars have a camera,” Strijbosch pointed out. Road infrastructure, such as traffic signs, can be recognised by the vehicle's cameras. This data is then fed into the RoadDNA software, and can be compared against the HD map data. If multiple traffic signs can be seen, this should be enough for the car to determine its exact location. "It is a great localisation attribute, which utilises the vehicle's existing cameras," he explained. The goal is to improve an autonomous vehicle’s awareness and to provide precise information on where it is on the road, often referred to as ‘contextual awareness.’ Looking ahead, Strijbosch affirms that Level 3 and
Level 4 autonomous vehicles must have HD mapping technology – it is not up for debate, he suggests: “Level 2 vehicles are on the road today without a HD map, but all of the car manufacturers are looking to integrate these maps to make their systems smoother, and ultimately, safer.” TomTom is not the only company exploring the benefits of HD mapping. Companies such as Nvidia, Vexcel, and HERE Technologies – Nokia’s spun-off mapping unit that was bought by Audi, BMW and Daimler in 2015 – are also developing similar offerings. In China, NavInfo has tasked itself with charting domestic roadways in HD for autonomous vehicles. The faith that companies are showing in this technology is demonstrative of its potential to advance the safety of automated driving functions, right from lowlevel ADAS features up to the driverless vehicle. Turn-by-turn signals afforded by traditional GPS navigation systems will no longer cut it in future when the car is in control. By enhancing navigation into a digitalised, HD platform, connected and autonomous features can be confidently deployed and adopted in the knowledge that there are fail-safe systems in place to support them.
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Connected cars must be safe and secure, but what’s the difference? Security is vital in order to stop hackers from being able to manipulate built-in safety protocols, learns Freddie Holmes
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omputer viruses can be a real source of frustration, and in some cases, have serious implications. Privileged information can be leaked, money can be stolen and connected devices can be held to ransom. Today, all of these risks are relevant to the car, and the automotive industry is fighting to ensure that connected vehicles do not become a subject of interest for malicious cyber attackers.
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In the last couple of years, some of these exposed systems have really awakened the industry to the vulnerabilities out there
This, however, is easier said than done. Not only do the car’s internet-connected systems need to be secure, but so too do the internal networks that run within the vehicle. These control basic functions such as the infotainment system, and for a growing number of vehicles, vital driving tasks such as steering, braking and acceleration. Under the control of a hacker, the potential for disaster is high.
any insecurities. Those that successfully ‘break in’ will be rewarded. “We'll show them the products, programmes and systems for which we plan to establish these Bug Bounties," GM President Dan Ammann told The Detroit News. "Then we'll put them in a comfortable environment — ply them with pizza and Red Bull or whatever they might need — and turn them loose."
Various automakers have been proactive in addressing this issue. Back in 2014, General Motors appointed its first dedicated cyber security officer, Jeffrey Massimilla. In August 2018, the company invited a handful of researchers – commonly dubbed ‘white hat’ hackers – to find loopholes in its vehicles in an effort to find and fix
These Bug Bounty programmes are not new, however. Indeed, this was GM’s second round of the scheme, and other automakers have run similar initiatives. In July 2016, FCA spoke about assessing vulnerabilities found by researchers through ‘triage.’ The same year, Tesla offered between US$100 (€87.50) and US$10,000
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for every bug found in its software, depending on the severity of the breach and its potential ramifications. While this is a positive sign for how seriously the automotive industry is taking cyber security, many share a common concern: should we even consider launching automated vehicle technologies when there is a risk of hacking?
Bookends offer stability To get around this issue, the industry is tackling both safety and security. In some languages, these words share the same meaning,
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Security defines the limitations of what is accessible. This is where mandatory access control becomes important, to provide access to only what is needed and nothing more
and as such there is a degree of confusion as to how they differ in practice. However, as Chuck Brokish, Director of Automotive Business Development at Green Hills Software, explains, they are not the same thing, and serve different yet equally important purposes in protecting the vehicle. Brokish describes safety and security as the “bookends to a robust system.” “Safety really defines what a system must do; if a screen needs to be updated 60 frames per second, that doesn’t mean it can occasionally be 59 frames per second. If a sensor input needs to be measured 100 times per second, that doesn’t mean occasionally it can be 99 times per second. It has to be done properly and precisely,” he says. “There are functional deadlines that must be met in real time. They define all of the things that must be done within a system to ensure that these safety goals are met.” In essence, ‘safety’ dictates the operations that a system must carry out. Typically, hackers will look for vulnerabilities and try to find a way to do things that the system was not necessarily intended to be capable of doing. Even though the system may be operating as intended in a ‘safe’ manner, this is where the topic of
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security comes in to ensure that safety cannot be compromised. “I think of security as the other end of the bookshelf – it defines the limitations of what is accessible,” continues Brokish. “This is where mandatory access control becomes important, to provide access to only what is needed and nothing more.” With this in mind, he suggests that cyber security should operate on the principle of ‘least privilege’, which dictates that a module must only be able to access the information required for its original purpose. “Put simply, a hacker may try to gain access to something, but they can’t because they’re not given access to it,” Brokish explains. “One end of the bookshelf consists of the safety features that define everything that must be done, and security is the other end of the bookshelf that defines the limits of what are possible. Those bookends create a well constrained, robust system that does everything it should and nothing more.” Green Hills Software has developed a kernel called the INTEGRITY RTOS, which is certified at the highest possible level of safety and security, and features multiple layers of protection. Brokish likens this kernel to a jewellery safe that has
been locked away at home. Despite various levels of security, such as a locked door and an alarm system, if an intruder manages to breach those initial defences the locked jewellery safe should remain impenetrable. “Starting with that ‘jewellery safe’, we build our critical tasks in separate address spaces to make sure that they are each guaranteed to operate in a safe manner, free from interference, so that other systems cannot mess with the operation,” he explains. “This ensures the security of the system, and enables multiple levels of security… We secure it from the inside out.”
Public exploits To date, mainstream hacks from research teams have shown that critical vehicle functions can be accessed through seemingly simple means, and have forced automakers to either make recalls or issue software updates. In February 2016, a UK-based Nissan Leaf was accessed remotely all the way from Australia. The hacker in question cited that the vulnerability came from the NissanConnect smartphone app, which only requires a car’s vehicle identification number (VIN) to take control. The heating and ventilation system could be adjusted remotely – potentially draining the battery without the user knowing – and private GPS data could be accessed. In June that year, a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV also fell prey to a research project. Some vulnerabilities were “funny,” whilst others were “really quite nasty,” according to Ken Munro, a Consultant at UK-based security research firm Pen Test Partners at the time. For example, the alarm could be deactivated by decoding the password for the Wi-Fi
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Safety really defines what a system must do; if a screen needs to be updated 60 frames per second, that doesn’t mean it can occasionally be 59 frames per second… It has to be done properly
connection used by the car’s smartphone app, which also allows remote control of other functions such as air conditioning and headlights. Then there are the wellpublicised exploits of FCA’s Uconnect system back in 2015, which saw Wired journalist Andy Greenberg stranded on a St. Louis highway after the brakes and steering had been hacked remotely by two researchers. Those researchers now work in GM’s Cruise Automation unit, having previously spent time at Uber’s Advanced Technology Centre in Pittsburgh. These are just some events that may have forced the hand of automakers to accelerate plans. As a result, the industry has had to come to terms with cyber security – and fast. “In the last couple of years, some of these exposed systems have really awakened the industry to the vulnerabilities out there,” says Brokish. “The industry is taking security quite seriously in implementing at least some minimal functions of security like authenticated boot or secure communications channels, for example.” However, there is some disparity in how cyber security solutions are being deployed, primarily because there is no set standard to work to. In July 2016, The Auto-ISAC (Information Sharing and Analysis
Centre) released a document that laid out several key principles to developing a secure connected car. Adherence to these best practices is not enforced, however, a stark contrast to the obligatory ISO 26262 functional safety standard. There are also standardised automotive safety integrity level (ASIL) ratings for functional safety, but cyber security is yet to gain a standardised approach. Brokish suggests that while this may potentially have a negative impact, the greater degree of freedom could see solutions implemented more rapidly.
When does it become worth the effort? The threat of a cyber attack is mitigated today by a handful of factors. No fully autonomous vehicle is on the market yet, and those that do feature semiautomated functions account for a relatively small fraction of new car sales. Most cars currently on sale may well be connected to the internet in some way, but it is the ability to remotely control critical vehicle functions that carries the most potential for harm. There is also a wide variation in software, which can make life hard for potential hackers. Because there are so many different
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solutions used from car to car, hackers are faced with a nonuniform target base; one hack cannot necessarily take down numerous types of vehicle. Given the current disparity in software solutions, and the limited number of highly autonomous vehicles today, Brokish suggests that it has not been worth a hacker’s time, effort or money to plan a cyber attack on even the most advanced cars on the market, yet. “Frankly, the payback is not big enough yet,” explains Brokish. “Hackers need to have enough vehicles that they can hold to ransom, or disrupt, to make it worth the effort.” A small number of vehicles with diverse software means many hacks are required; once the volumes of these cars increase and software becomes more standardised it will become easier to get a greater return on a hack.” In future, those vehicles with the highest level of autonomous driving capability will likely become the most attractive targets, as they present a compelling opportunity for disruption, financial gain or worse. It is not a matter of ‘if’ such hacks will occur, it’s simply a matter of ‘when.’ Brokish concludes that efforts must be made to put the necessary defences in place to avoid hacks wherever possible, and to limit the impact everywhere else.
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The safe, seamless intersection: smart infrastructure will save lives and keep cities moving Continental tells Xavier Boucherat why smart infrastructure will be essential to achieve Vision Zero, particularly in complex driving situations such as intersections and mid-block crossings
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ntelligent infrastructure will be pivotal to Vision Zero, the industry-wide ambition to make fatalities and serious injuries on the road a thing of the past. Thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s according to Jeremy McClain, Director, Systems and Technology at Continental. The mega-supplier has long supported the Vision Zero initiative, and is now pushing deeper into the connected space with developments such as smart intersections. Object detection sensors paired with Dedicated Short-Range Communication (DSRC), to deliver data, can link intersection infrastructure to vehicles. In turn, this could help semi-automated and fullyautomated vehicles to deal with socalled â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;corner casesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, thus maximising their potential to eradicate driving-related deaths.
Connected infrastructure can provide vehicles with information on the road ahead
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McClain is confident that in time, on-board sensors and in-vehicle technology will become sufficiently advanced that driverless vehicles can handle any situation, but autonomy is arriving at a slow pace, and whilst advanced driver assistance
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Data from connected infrastructure can warn drivers of potential dangers in advance systems (ADAS) are finding their way into new models, humans will remain in the driving seat for some time. Meanwhile, intersections are a problem that need solving. In the US, McClain suggests around 43% of all traffic collisions, and 30% of traffic-related fatalities, take place on or near intersections. The main issue is visibility – quite often, neither drivers nor sensors can see beyond obstacles such as crowds of people, or large trucks.
But even if sensing were better than it is today, the solution it could provide at intersections would still be inefficient, explains McClain. “We can always put more sensors in the car,” he says. “For example, if we fitted them into the corners of a bumper, that vehicle would be able to see a little better. But it would still have to behave very hesitantly at intersections, the same way we do, to make sure it can see everything.” Indeed, with OEMs or
operators likely to shoulder liability for self-driving vehicles, they might act even more cautiously. Tentative behaviour from every vehicle at every intersection could quickly lead to traffic congestion. The solution is believed to be V2X connectivity, capable of delivering information on intersections to a car in advance of its arrival. At its most basic, data from the intersection could be used to alert
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We can always put more sensors in the car… If we fitted them into the corners of a bumper, that vehicle would be able to see a little better. But it would still have to behave very hesitantly at intersections, the same way we do, to make sure it can see everything
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Many traffic related fatalities occur at intersections, and V2X could be the answer a driver to any dangers ahead. This data could then also be used to pre-condition forward-collision warning systems, or even autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systems. Typically, these require confirmation from a sensor to come into effect, but preconditioning the system can improve its performance. Beyond intersections, there will be other applications. One is midblock crossings. “Mid-block
crossings tend to be very dangerous situations too,” says McClain, “because pedestrians and cyclists are often occluded, perhaps by buses, or by vehicles which have yielded to the pedestrian and are blocking the view of oncoming vehicles in the adjacent lane.” Sensors could be built into infrastructure like traffic lights and streetlamps. Some cities have already taken a lead on this – Portland, for example, has fitted 200 safety sensors provided by
Current, part of power generation giant General Electric, on its three deadliest streets. However, challenges remain for the general rollout of V2X. To begin with, virtually no vehicles are fitted with the required technology, and McClain believes it could take as long as 25 years before V2X technology makes it into 95% of vehicles on the road today. As a result, there are few vehicles for the technology to talk to.
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The biggest challenge is creating a business model for smart infrastructure technologies which can provide a justifiable return on investment. It is difficult to justify investments on safety alone – there has to be additional value
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It will take time for V2X to become common in new vehicles Then there’s the question of the money to deploy the tech. “Deployment in vehicles themselves isn’t so much the issue, because the customer will pay,” says McClain. “What’s more a potential obstacle is fitting the infrastructure, for which governments and municipalities will have to pay. And so the biggest challenge will be creating a business model for these technologies which can provide a justifiable return on investment. It is difficult to justify investments on safety alone – there has to be additional value.” McClain believes the solution will lie in leveraging the data collected by infrastructure. Cities and municipalities, he suggests, will be able to make use of their investments to better understand how people move, improve infrastructure maintenance schedules, where and when it can expect crowds, and how to improve the overall traffic flow. “I’m not suggesting safety doesn’t sell,” he adds, “but additional
value is important, particularly at this pre-deployment stage when we don’t have all the proof.” The other challenge is how to leverage V2X to protect vulnerable road-users. As it stands, there is no way to communicate with cyclists and pedestrians. Research and development continues, but virtually all proposals would require some sort of device to be carried on that person. A smartphone could work, and that person’s location and route could be broadcast to all nearby vehicles, but this would not only require people to have their smartphone on them at all times: it would require them to consent to their data being used. In an age of heightened concern around data privacy, will inner-city residents really sign up for systems which could effectively track their movements city-wide? “This could present a problem if personally identifiable information were to be used,” says McClain,
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“but from our perspective, there’s no need for personally identifiable information – we should be able to anonymise it all. From a safety perspective, there’s absolutely no need for that, and even from an added-value data perspective, I still don’t see the need.” There may be a need to identify certain types of information such as vehicle types to improve the quality of the data, but this still doesn’t make personal identification necessary. Projects such as connected intersections play a role in Continental’s vision for seamless mobility in cities, as the supplier prepares itself to meet the requirements of mobility service providers, and not simply OEMs. Work continues to improve the business proposition of connected infrastructure, and to educate potential customers worldwide. “That’s the most important thing we can show them,” concludes McClain: “that this technology can improve their overall way of life.”
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Say hello to the car that talks back Artificial intelligence presents a real opportunity to enable seamless human-machine interaction inside the vehicle. Freddie Holmes speaks to Figure Eight to find out more
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atural, seamless and essential. Words that very few consumers would associate with the artificial intelligence (AI) experience today, but that could change in future as software becomes more capable of performing not only designated tasks, but understanding how to react to unfamiliar requests. AI is expected to transform numerous elements of modern life. In many cases it will work behind the scenes, improving the performance of various computing processes. In other instances, its role will be more apparent
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through automated assistants at home, at work, and even in the car. Some suggest that the technology will progress to a point where it will act as a companion, and a source of advice. Whether this is an attractive prospect or not is subjective, but the world’s tech giants are certainly keen on the idea. Apple’s Siri, Nokia’s Viki and Amazon’s Alexa are prominent examples, with Microsoft Cortana and Google Now opting for ‘dehumanised’ branding by avoiding human names. Deployed as more of a professional service, IBM’s Watson
uses an advanced form of AI that is capable of engaging in Q&A sessions as a ‘chat bot’.
From frustration, to fluency AI is generally considered to have improved significantly in recent years, but there are numerous instances that have underlined why many remain sceptical of it, particularly when it comes to consumer electronics. At CES 2018, LG’s presentation of its domestic robotic assistant Cloi
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At the current sophistication of AI, it’s unrealistic to be able to deploy it in situations where the user may go out of the bounds of what the AI has been trained on
(pronounced ‘Chloe’) did not go well. The system repeatedly failed to respond to simple prompts, and led David Wanderwaal, LG’s US marketing head, to remark: “Even robots have bad days.”
“Smart assistant devices can seamlessly integrate the communication between a human and a machine, and can deal with you in a more natural and fluent way,” observes Markus Schupfner, Chief Technology Officer at Visteon. “We believe this technology will enter the automotive market and the cockpit.” Nils Lenke, Senior Director of Corporate Research at Nuance, suggested that drivers will be able to “set the goal, and the assistant will use reasoning capabilities and its knowledge about the world to organise the rest.”
Images courtesy of BMW
Indeed, much frustration has been directed towards automated assistants over the years. That said, their capabilities have improved significantly of late, warranting further applications outside of the smartphone or tablet. Automotive assistants have also become more prevalent, with Nuance’s Dragon Drive AI platform transforming the voice control experience for various premium cars on the market. Experts see AI becoming a vital part of the in-car experience moving forward.
But while many are bullish on the prospects for seamless humanmachine interaction, work needs to be done to ensure that AI can handle situations outside of what it has been taught. To get around the often frustrating and disjointed AI experience today, San Franciscoheadquartered AI specialist Figure
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Eight is making an effort to improve the ‘fall-back’ scenario. This comes into play in the event that something goes wrong, such as when an AI assistant does not understand a request, or simply cannot formulate an appropriate response. As Alyssa Simpson Rochwerger, Vice President of
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Product at Figure Eight explains, a fall-back is effectively a contingency plan built in to the system. “It’s mostly about planning, because these scenarios will happen,” she says. “At the current sophistication of AI, it’s unrealistic to be able to deploy it in situations where the user may go out of the bounds of what the AI has been trained on. “I’m often frustrated by speaking with chat bot technologies, be it Siri, Alexa or Google Home, where I ask it something and it just falls apart,” she continues. “A graceful fall-back is around building in the user experience and anticipating the fact that the AI may encounter a situation that it isn’t trained for, and can’t handle well.” Part of Figure Eight’s role is to help data science teams test, tune and train their algorithms. Oftentimes, the company acts as the graceful fall-back: in low confidence situations, data will be routed to Figure Eight in order to have a human-in-the-loop. In addition, Figure Eight helps companies to benchmark and test these systems
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once they are deployed in production environments, and helps teams improve the level of accuracy, confidence and breadth of what the AI system is able to cover. “Having a diverse team and a diverse set of training data enables these technologies to be successful,” explains Rochwerger. “Without that, a lot of these systems are going to fall down in the real world.”
A human touch Some may ask why an AI assistant is needed in the vehicle when the push of a button could achieve the same results, but Rochwerger believes the technology offers more benefits than many are aware of. As she puts it, it is about marrying together the machine and human for a ‘one plus one equals three’ experience. By training the AI to anticipate situations it may not be able to handle, the fall-back will take into consideration the user’s needs and creates a more fluid, realistic and ultimately useful AI interaction. It
can be as simple as clarifying to the user that a request cannot be fulfilled, rather than leaving he or she guessing. “It would be nice if an AI assistant had some kind of response that anticipates being in these situations, such as: ‘Hey, I’m not quite sure what you mean by that – I’m going to take this as a note learn from it’ or something similar,” suggests Rochwerger. Figure Eight is currently training AI for various in-car functions, such as voice control technology that can set navigation to the nearest gas station or find the driver’s favourite restaurant. It is about adding intelligence to the user experience – a significant change for many drivers that will be used to pressing buttons, or at most, dictating extremely specific voice commands that have been pre-set. Having a graceful fall-back, she continues, can “create a delightful experience for a customer, as opposed to a frustrating and annoying situation.” The idea of a fall-back is relatively new, and only really applies to software that leverages
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
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These systems can misinterpret certain words, but luckily they have a graceful fall-back where the human can type in the name of the street directly. If I’m frustrated and mad at my AI, I may be more inclined to make an unsafe judgement
a machine learning component. But despite this push for an artificial interaction, some situations may end up diverting the request back to human control if the AI struggles. This is not through a reluctant acceptance that AI isn’t up to the task; instead, it is simply the most efficient and effective fallback solution in some instances. For instance, many in-car voice recognition systems can struggle to understand natural language and heavy accents, and often fall down when interpreting hard-topronounce place names. In an automotive environment where drivers are still in control of the vehicle, creating a frustrating, distracting and potentially dangerous interaction between car and driver is to be avoided at all costs. “One way to have a graceful fall-back would be to revert to a human process, to have a human in the loop,” explains Rochwerger. “These systems can misinterpret certain words, but luckily they have a graceful fall-back where the human can type in the name of the street directly. If I’m
frustrated and mad at my AI, I may be more inclined to make an unsafe judgement.” This does pose the question as to whether an AI assistant is simply technology for the sake of technology. Will humans always be a necessary fall-back, or will AI eventually be competent in any given situation? Indeed, this is a question many are also asking of autonomous driving software. While Rochwerger does not rule out the possibility that AI assistants could become fully capable, it is unsafe to leave the human out of the loop today. “The reality is that these systems are not sophisticated enough to not have a human fall-back,” she says. “It would probably be irresponsible, or even reckless, to do so.”
Hey Alexa, got time to chat? The longer AI is exposed to new scenarios and training data, the more it learns. This is a continuous process, meaning that the system becomes increasingly capable over
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time. So capable, suggests Rochwerger, that the car could facilitate not only assistance with navigation, changing the radio station or adjusting climate control, but also offer emotional support. “What if you started asking it for relationship advice?” she muses. “For example, you could say: ‘Hey, Alexa, my husband’s mad at me, what should I do?’ It should anticipate things that are outside of the realm of what it’s been trained, for and to have experiences that can address that successfully – even if the answer is simply, ‘sorry, that’s outside of my expertise’.” While AI may indeed develop to a point where off-the-cuff conversations can be held between car and driver, Alex Mankowsky, a Futurist at Daimler’s Futures Studies & Ideation unit, points out that this should not be confused with true intelligence. “Machine learning will not lead to selfthinking, empathetic robots,” he explains. “We are talking about complex programmes that lead some people to believe there might be some mystery or actual intelligence at play.”
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
V2X connectivity could be the next step in eliminating human error on roads The development of vehicle-to-everything technology is moving from the lab to real roads, but how will the technology benefit drivers, pedestrians and smart city governors? Celeste Dooley investigates
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ehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity has long been spoken about, but it has taken time for the technology to find any meaningful real-world deployment. From sensors embedded in roadside infrastructure and even ‘connected’ cycle helmets, there has been much said on the potential for V2X. In essence, the technology should allow a vehicle to communicate with the surrounding ecosystem, improving driver awareness and thus safety. The
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vehicle would be interconnected to not only other vehicles, but the surrounding infrastructure and potentially pedestrians as well. In an era of driverless cars, it could also prepare active safety systems for emergency manoeuvres. V2X compatible vehicles can be notified of road hazards, changes to traffic light status, upcoming roadworks and more. Some V2X sensors have a range of nearly 1,000 feet, which allows drivers to
The industry is figuring out how to replace the use of all five of our senses – plus our experience and intuition – with a computing framework
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be alerted of a hazard with sufficient time to avoid a potential collision. While complementing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) sensors such as radar, LiDAR, and camera systems, V2X provides longer range sensing, can communicate with cloud-based services, and is designed to extend a vehicle's ability to see and communicate further down the road. Some go as far to say it can help the car see around corners. According to the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 94% of road incidents result from human error. V2X is intended to enhance the capabilities of human drivers and prevent such incidents. Potentially dangerous situations can be flagged to the driver in advance, better preparing them for what could be a hazard. Humans have had to do this for decades through their own senses and intuition, explains Marques
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018
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When we are driving, we don’t rely just on our eyesight
McCammon, Vice President of Automotive at Wind River. “When we’re driving we don’t rely just on our eyesight,” he tells M:bility. “We also take audible cues; you hear changes in the road surface and adjust accordingly. You might hear sirens from an emergency vehicle and pull over, or you may notice a parent chasing a child, which suggests a child may run into the street. Your experience provides context for your intuition.” V2X could help to bring even greater clarity, and better inform the decisions of drivers which, for the foreseeable future, will remain in control of the vehicle. “By employing V2X communications, cars will be able to alert each other and the infrastructure to road hazards or impending collisions,” adds McCammon.
V2X in practice According to research from Siemens in 2015, V2X connectivity can lead to improved road safety, increased efficiency and fewer traffic jams. It found that implementing a fully dynamic V2X in-vehicle unit system led to 35% fewer accidents and 31% fewer people injured on Germany’s A9 highway. In Las Vegas, a connected corridor allows certain connected vehicles to communicate with traffic infrastructure such as intersections and traffic signals. Vegas’ roads can be dangerous – they are long, straight and fast, but are peppered with pedestrian crossings. Roadside units can warn upcoming drivers when a pedestrian approaches a crossing, and connected street infrastructure can alert drivers to certain
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restrictions such as bus lanes or if another vehicle is travelling against the flow of traffic in the wrong lane. In Columbus, Ohio, sensors are being installed at intersections to detect traffic and warn drivers of potential hazards as they approach. Vehicles that have been equipped with new vehicle-to-infrastructure technology will provide prompts and alerts to drivers as to whether other cars, pedestrians or bicycles are passing through an intersection or running a red light, for example. The city, which won the US government’s 2016 Smart Cities Challenge, has been working closely with mega-supplier Continental on the project. And it’s not just suppliers that are showing a keen interest in V2X, automakers are also bullish on
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M:bility | Magazine - Q4 2018 the technology’s potential. GM, for example, plans to offer the technology in a high-volume Cadillac crossover in 2023, which will eventually be used across all models in the brand’s portfolio. Ford has been working with AT&T and Delphi on a V2X platform in the US, while PSA Group has been trialling cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) technology in France, with longterm plans to utilise 5G connectivity. Toyota and Lexus intend to launch dedicated shortrange communications- (DSRC) based V2X technologies in certain US vehicles in 2021. In January 2018, a number of major automotive players such as Continental, Ericsson and Nissan announced plans to carry out CV2X trials in Japan, while Audi has offered traffic light information connectivity in certain models for a few years now. “If you look at the market leaders – such as BMW, Daimler, GM, Toyota and Volkswagen – they are all going through some manner of organisational and architectural restructuring,” observes McCammon. “All of those day-to-day sensing activities are things that most of us take for granted behind the wheel. With autonomous driving, the industry is figuring out how to replace the use of all five of our senses – plus our experience and intuition – with a computing framework.”
An intuitive experience In future, the expectation is that vehicles will become ‘intelligent’, but this simply describes their ability to make informed decisions based on data from the surrounding environment. This will be done in real-time, and with extreme accuracy. Indeed, V2Xcapable vehicles may even be able
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V2X should improve driver awareness and thus safety
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By employing V2X communications, cars will be able to alert each other and the infrastructure to road hazards or impending collisions
to recognise potential warning signs based on the usage of surrounding infrastructure and buildings. In an extreme example, the car could recognise an evacuation in part of a city due to an earthquake. “A smart building adjusts lighting and cooling as people move from one room to the next, but what if the building suddenly experiences an exodus?” muses McCammon. “Imagine how valuable that information could be to the car if a building indicates that it has turned off all of its lights in the past 30 seconds. That could be a signal to the car that there is a hazard up ahead.” As with any new technology, there is often a degree of hype that surrounds its introduction, and
V2X is no different. For those stakeholders involved in the development and deployment of this technology, the challenge lies in ensuring that tangible benefits to its implementation are not lost in the hype that can surround new announcements. The industry must also be aware of the risks as well as the benefits, particularly when it comes to cyber security. “As these vehicles become more dependent on wireless connectivity, both within the vehicles and externally, they become more vulnerable to outside interference, whether accidental or with malicious intent,” warns McCammon. “Ensuring these vehicles have the required levels of cyber security is of paramount importance for the connected car.”
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