Future of diesel engines The future of diesel engines – and how OEMs can shape it Despite an anticipated decline in the overall diesel market share in the years to 2030, demand for diesel is expected to continue to remain above 50% in medium-upper car segments. By Fabrizio Arena, Hiroto Suzuki, Eric Kirstetter, Wolf-Dieter Hoppe and Daniele Spera of Arthur D. Little imits on emissions in the automotive sector are expected to be tightened in the future, with the US and the EU leading the regulation pattern. Although diesel accounts for less than 1% of US car registrations each year, it makes up about 50% of annual car registrations in the EU. emissions of air pollutants, together with the energy, industry, commercial, institutional and household sectors, as well as agriculture and waste. The transportation sector has considerably reduced its emissions over the past decade, yet it is still the largest contributor of NOx emissions, accounting for 46% of total EU-28 emissions. Diesel-powered vehicles account for 80% of total NOx transportation emissions, ranking as one of the main targets of governmental emissions reduction policies. implementation of relatively new technologies, which results in higher costs. The most likely scenario is a progressive diesel market share decrease by 2030, while keeping a relevant positioning (signiﬁcantly above 50%) in medium-upper passenger car segments. L The ‘diesel’ environmental issue However, when compared to gasoline, emissions controls for diesel exhaust – mainly for oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) – are more complex and require the The transportation sector is one of the main sources contributing to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www.automotivemegatrends.com 25