Q4
2017
Table of Contents Letter from the President
Page 4
Regional Market Trends
Page 5
The Luxury Market
Page 8
San Francisco County
Page 12
San Mateo County
Page 16
Marin County
Page 18
Napa County
Page 20
Sonoma County
Page 22
Alameda County
Page 24
Contra Costa County
Page 26
Counties Represented
Napa Sonoma Marin Contra Costa San Francisco
Alameda
San Mateo
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 3 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Letter from the President
Charles Moore President and CEO
Q4 2017 Marks Another Strong Year for Bay Area Real Estate
“The
If you thought the Bay Area housing prices couldn’t continue to climb, the market ended 2017 with a strong fourth quarter as all seven counties saw year-over-year increases in the average sales price. We also saw a bit of concern in the first half of Q4 2017 due to the looming tax bill issues — causing some to move faster on properties during that time of indecision — but eventually balanced out again in December Bay Area’s economic growth is
expected to carry on into 2018 and in turn
once the tax bill was finally passed.
Overall, the market in Q4 continued to see restricted inventory throughout the region along with demand remaining high, causing an upward will continue to fuel the high buyer demand, pressure on average sales prices in several of the Bay Area’s most active marketplaces. SFGate.com reported in January that, “increased buyer so we anticipate another robust year.” demand, decreased existing home turnover and not enough new home building has created a perfect storm of ‘crisis level’ low inventory in many of the nation’s most popular cities, including San Francisco.” According to the report, the Bay Area had the second biggest drop in inventory in the U.S. this year. Also pressuring prices is the fact that there is record low unemployment rates in Bay Area, which basically stayed at an overall average of 3 percent for 2017. The Mayor’s office recently released its report with a 2.1 percent unemployment rate for the East Bay and 2.4 percent for San Francisco/San Mateo Metro Area. According to the report, San Francisco has added six jobs for every one unit of housing in 2017, which has and will continue to push prices upward and incentivize buyers to look outside of the city as they seek value and affordability. The Bay Area’s economic growth is expected to carry on into 2018 and in turn will continue to fuel the high buyer demand, so we anticipate another robust year. Any lingering concerns regarding the impacts of the tax reform, as of now, are not expected to have a large scale cooling effect on the San Francisco marketplace, although any big increases in interest rates could affect the entry-level buyer.
Download the complete Quarterly Report at: mcguire.com/quarterly_report
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 4 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Regional Market Trends Continued high demand and general lack of inventory, much like we’ve seen all year, carried on throughout the fourth quarter — having a direct impact on price points all across the region. In fact, all four regions of the Bay Area experienced year-over-year gains in average sales price. The regional average sales price rose 7 percent from Q4 2016 to reach $1,070,938 this quarter. A total of 9,261 units sold in Q4 for an 8 percent increase. And with an average of 32 days on market (DOM) this quarter, the selling process moved along 14 percent faster than it did a year ago. At $1.921 million, San Francisco had the highest average sales price for single-family homes in the Bay Area this quarter. The city’s top average was supported by a few upper end deals closing for $16.5 million, $13.75 million, and $11 million during the final weeks of 2017. That said, the largest concentration of sales in the city occurred within the $1-2 million price range this quarter. The Mid-Peninsula recorded the region’s second highest average sales price in Q4 at $1.788 million, an 8 percent jump from the previous Q4 average of $1.659 million, as well as the highest fourth quarter average recorded in the last 10 years. San Mateo County’s total number of homes sold at 1,125 this quarter was also 23 percent higher than what it experienced in Q4 2016. The price point with the most activity this quarter was the $1-2 million range with 586 homes sold. The East Bay again had the largest market share of all four regions this quarter. At $868,606, its average sales price was the lowest regionally, but still the highest recorded in the last decade. The 5,283 total number of homes sold this quarter represented 57 percent of the Bay Area’s market share by unit, and 46 percent by volume. Homes in the $500K to $1 million range experienced the most transactions, with 2,731 units sold in this category. The North Bay also outperformed all previous Q4 benchmarks set in the last 10 years with an average sales price of $953,204 — up 3 percent year-over-year. The North Bay is similar to the East Bay in being a desirable and more affordable option for those looking to purchase outside of the city, and therefore also saw its largest concentration of sales occur within the $500K to $1 million price range this quarter. A total of 2,238 homes sold in the North Bay in Q4.
All REGIONS Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Quantity
Q4 2017
$1,070,938
32
$565
9,261
change
2%
5%
4%
-4%
Q3 2017
$1,052,900
30
$542
9,613
Q4 2017
$1,070,938
32
$565
9,261
-14
13
8%
change Q4 2016
$2,000
7
%
$1,004,501
%
37
%
$499
8,543
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
East Bay
North Bay
Mid-Peninsula
San Francisco
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 5 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Regional Market Share The Bay Area netted $9.91 billion in total sales volume this quarter for the 9,261 total number of units sold. The East Bay accounted for 57 percent of all sales and 46 percent volume. The North Bay claimed 24 percent of units sold and 22 percent sales volume. The Mid-Peninsula was responsible for 12 percent of all sales and 20 percent volume. San Francisco accounted for 7 percent of units sold and 12 percent sales volume. Overall, all four regions of the Bay Area performed consistently with what we’ve seen in fourth quarter trends over the last few years.
7+12+5724A 12+20+4622A Market Share by Unit
Market Share by Volume
San Francisco 7%
San Francisco 12%
Mid-Peninsula 12%
Mid-Peninsula 20%
East Bay 57%
East Bay 46%
North Bay 24%
North Bay 22%
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 6 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 2,238 Marin, Napa, Sonoma
East Bay: 5,283 Contra Costa, Alameda
San Francisco: 615
> $5,000,000 < $4,000,000
Mid-Peninsula: 1,125
< $3,000,000 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 7 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
The Luxury Market San Francisco had the highest average sales price for luxury homes this quarter at $5.334 million. This occurred even without the city seeing any ultra-prime transactions taking place in the $20 million and above sector as it did during the busier Q2 and Q3 selling seasons. This figure was still down 6 percent from Q4 2016. Luxury homes in San Francisco sold at a faster pace than any other Bay Area region this quarter, spending an average of 31 DOM before going into contract, indicating that buyers navigating this upper end of the market were prepared to move quickly in order to secure their ideal property. A total of 61 homes sold in San Francisco’s top-tier market this quarter. At $4.489 million, the Mid-Peninsula’s average sales price for luxury homes was down 11 percent year-over-year, suggesting a slight cooldown in what’s consistently been one of the Bay Area’s top luxury markets. Even so, San Mateo County still experienced the highest priced sale of Q4 2017, with an 18.9 million home sale taking place in Atherton. A total of 113 luxury homes sold this quarter, remaining exactly in line with its previous sales volume figures recorded in Q3 2017 and Q4 2016. The average 38 DOM for the area was 24 percent faster quarter-over-quarter and 36 percent faster year-over-year. The North Bay’s luxury market saw an 11 percent drop in average sales price from the Q3, when it reached its highest point this year at $3.071 million. However, the area’s $2.729 million average quarter did grow by 4 percent year-over-year when it stood at $2.614 million. Sales activity in the North Bay’s luxury sector was slightly busier this quarter, with 224 total sales, resulting in a 22 percent increase from Q4 2016 — and the highest year-over-year sales volume gain of all four regions. Luxury properties here spent an average of 83 DOM. This figure is fairly typical for the area given that many of the upper-end offerings serve a unique buyer pool either looking for several acres of land and/or developed agricultural space. For example, the North Bay’s most expensive transaction this quarter was a $9 million ranch in Dillon Beach that was on the market for the first time in 150 years. In the East Bay region, the average sales price may be the lowest in the luxury market (in fact its highest priced sale in Q4 was $5.25 million), but it saw the biggest average price gain year-over-year among the four regions and it registered the largest number of sales. The average price in Q4 was $1.913 million, an 8 percent gain over Q4 2016’s $1.764 million and up slightly from Q3’s $1.907 million. The sale of 531 homes in Q4 was 5 percent higher than Q4 2016. East Bay also had the second lowest DOM among the four regions at 35 in Q4. * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 8 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
SAN FRANCISCO Average Sales Price
Quantity
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$5,334,098
61
31
$1,327
change
31%
5%
-33%
16%
Q3 2017
$4,072,375
58
46
$1,140
Q4 2017
$5,334,098
61
31
$1,327
change
-6%
0%
-35%
43%
Q4 2016
$5,653,904
61
48
$927
Average Sales Price
Quantity
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
$4,489,978
113
38
$1,261
1
-24
3%
MID-PENINSULA
Q4 2017 change
-7
Q3 2017
$4,816,518
112
50
$1,230
Q4 2017
$4,489,978
113
38
$1,261
change
-11%
0%
-36%
8%
Q4 2016
$5,073,058
113
59
$1,169
Average Sales Price
Quantity
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$2,729,532
224
83
$892
change
-11%
2%
-7%
1%
Q3 2017
$3,071,889
220
90
$883
Q4 2017
$2,729,532
224
83
$892
change
4%
22%
-12%
1%
Q4 2016
$2,614,229
184
94
$879
Average Sales Price
Quantity
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$1,913,478
531
35
$602
change
0%
-7%
10%
2%
Q3 2017
$1,907,525
574
32
$590
Q4 2017
$1,913,478
531
35
$602
change
8%
5%
-3%
8%
Q4 2016
$1,764,081
507
36
$558
%
%
%
NORTH BAY
EAST BAY
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 9 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Bay Area Luxury Market Share The Mid-Peninsula accounted for the largest portion of Bay Area luxury market share with 37 percent by unit and 38 percent by volume ($1.04 billion). San Francisco represented 21 percent of all luxury homes sold and 24 percent of its volume ($655 million). The East Bay claimed 22 percent of the market share by unit and 19 percent by volume ($506 million). And the North Bay accounted for 19 percent by unit and 19 percent by volume ($524 million). In all, there were 927 luxury homes sold across the Bay Areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s seven counties and they accounted for a total of $2.725 billion in sales.
8
21+37+2220A 24+38+19A Market Share by Unit
Market Share by Volume
San Francisco 21%
San Francisco 24%
Mid-Peninsula 37%
Mid-Peninsula 38%
East Bay 22%
East Bay 19%
North Bay 19%
North Bay 19%
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 10 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Sales Trends Luxury Homes
Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K
$500K-$1M
$1M-$2M
Price Per Square Foot
$2M-$3M
$3M-$5M
> $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft
$5M+
>= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft
San Francisco Single-Family Homes
Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016
< $500/sqft
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
=250 +0 +510120 + 80 + 30+ =220 +0 570 + 120 + +7016+ =250 +0 +510120 + +8030+
25%
22%
51%
25%
12%
57%
8%
12%
51%
7%
12%
8%
3%
2%
3%
Mid-Peninsula 0%
Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
=250 +0 +510120 + 80 + 30+ =230 +0 530 + 140 + +6030+ =360 +0 470 + 100 + 50 + 20+
25%
23%
36%
52%
12%
53%
8%
14%
47%
10%
3%
6%
3%
5%
2%
North Bay 0%
Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
=180540 + 220 + 40+20+ =210540 + 190 + 30+20+10+ =270500 + 170 + 40+10+10+ 18%
21%
54%
54%
27%
22%
19%
50%
17%
4%
3%
4%
2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
East Bay 0%
Q4 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
=200520 + 250 + 30+ 20+ =200520 + 260 + =270510 + 200 + 20+ 20%
52%
20%
52%
27%
51%
25%
3%
26%
2%
20%
2%
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 11 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
San Francisco County Single-Family Homes The San Francisco single-family home market closed out the year by setting the highest average sales price for the Bay Area at $1.921 million in Q4. This figure was not only up 14 percent from the $1.68 million average in Q3 2017, but was also 5 percent more than last year’s benchmark of $1.833 million. In fact, San Francisco’s average sales price for a single-family home this quarter was the city’s highest recorded average for all quarters in the last 10 years. A total of 615 homes sold in San Francisco this quarter, remaining flat from the previous year, but grew by 9 percent from Q3 2017. On average, homes went into contract after spending 25 DOM, resulting in a 28 percent faster pace than this time last year — a clear indication of a market where buyers are forced to make quick and confident decisions in order to secure a swift transaction. Overall, the city had 20 transactions close in the $5 million and above category in Q4 2017.
SAN FRANCISCO - SFH Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$1,921,968
25
$966
change
14%
-6%
6%
Q3 2017
$1,680,598
26
$912
Q4 2017
$1,921,968
25
$966
change
5%
-28%
11%
Q4 2016
$1,833,211
34
$870
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 12 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
6849+ 73+ 67+ 67+ 45+ 59+ 60+ 65+ 40+ 61+ 57+ 62+ 35+ 61+ 54+ 61+ 38+ 63+ 56+ 61+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
$2,000 S1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
64+5868+6568+7077+7077+8590+7582+8488+8090+8895+8496 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
For San Francisco sellers testing the market’s ceiling in Q4 it paid off as those properties not requiring a price change took home 17 percent on top of the initial asking price. This was the highest upward change amongst all seven counties in the Bay Area. Opposite of that, properties that required a price change were only able to recoup 89 percent on the original list price. Sales Q4 2017 Q4 2016
without price change
with price change
17%
-11%
12
-9
%
%
San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft
Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10
Telegraph Hill topped the list with an average sales price of $8.19 million in Q4. A $13.75 million sale closed in December, helping to boost the neighborhood into the number 1 position. Pacific Heights’ average sales price was down 25 percent yearover-year despite having a 16.5 million closing occur in the final weeks of 2017.
Neighborhood
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Telegraph Hill
$8,191,250
n/a
n/a
Presidio Heights
$7,807,083
$5,835,000
34%
Pacific Heights
$5,795,188
$7,740,469
-25%
Cow Hollow
$4,587,857
$4,887,500
-6%
Jordan Lake/ Laurel Heights
$3,850,000
$3,325,000
16%
Sea Cliff
$3,602,500
$6,018,333
-40%
Alamo Square
$3,600,000
n/a
n/a
Eureka Valley/ Dolores Heights
$3,542,778
$2,228,912
59%
Lake Street
$3,453,333
$2,675,010
29%
Marina
$3,223,000
$3,943,250
-18%
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 13 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
San Francisco County Condominiums The cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s condominium market experienced its second highest average sales price ever recorded in the last 10 years during the fourth quarter. At $1.328 million, the average condo unit in San Francisco sold for 6 percent more than it did in Q3 2017, and 8 percent more than the previously $1.229 million seen in Q4 2016. The city also saw an increase in its condo sales volume as well, with the 675 units sold in Q4 rising by 33 percent quarter-over-quarter and 13 percent year-over-year. The last time San Francisco had this many condos sell over a three month period was during the second and third quarters of 2013, when sales volume reached 757 and 690 respectively. The average condo sold after 34 DOM in Q4, which was 13 percent faster than this time last year.
SAN FRANCISCO - CONDOMINIUMS Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$1,328,369
34
$1,069
change
6%
-7%
0%
Q3 2017
$1,253,710
37
$1,069
Q4 2017
$1,328,369
34
$1,069
change
8%
-13%
5%
Q4 2016
$1,229,507
39
$1,019
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 14 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
5850+ 75+ 69+ 66+ 53+ 71+ 61+ 59+ 46+ 65+ 51+ 59+ 43+ 59+ 56+ 60+ 47+ 66+ 51+ 67+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
41+46 +5049+5152+5854+5561+6260+6162+6362+ 63+6761+66 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
$1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
Condominium units that didn’t require a price change this quarter netted 6 percent on top of the original list price. Whereas, sellers who had to change the price of their condo listing, received 8 percent less than their asking price.
Sales Q4 2017 Q4 2016
without price change
with price change
6
-8%
5
-7%
% %
Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10
A nearly $5 million condo sale in the Financial District helped boost the neighborhood’s average to $2.11 million this quarter, the highest in the city. However, it was Glen Park that saw the largest year-over-year gain with its $1.84 million average up 79 percent from Q4 2016. Twin Peaks and Noe Valley had average sales prices climb 47 percent and 34 percent, respectively.
Neighborhood
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Financial District/ Barbary Coast
$2,110,918
$1,279,714
65%
Telegraph Hill
$2,033,333
$1,343,071
51%
Presidio Heights
$1,994,750
$2,351,438
-15%
Cole Valley/ Parnassus Heights
$1,947,667
$1,410,748
38%
Glen Park
$1,840,000
$1,027,500
79%
< $1000/sqft
Pacific Heights
$1,807,796
$1,621,878
11%
< $900/sqft
Russian Hill
$1,784,117
$1,682,861
6%
Marina
$1,688,373
$1,672,389
1%
Noe Valley
$1,626,521
$1,215,120
34%
Twin Peaks
$1,617,500
$1,100,000
47%
San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot
> $1000/sqft
< $700/sqft < $500/sqft
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 15 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
San Mateo County Single-Family Homes The Mid-Peninsula ended this year with an average sales price of $1.788 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. Not only was this the highest fourth quarter average for the area, it followed closely behind the $1.797 million record high set in Q2 2017. Overall sales volume for San Mateo County remained relatively flat year-over-year with 1,125 total homes sold for the quarter. Mid-Peninsula homes sold quicker here than anywhere else in the Bay Area, averaging just 21 DOM. This rate was 30 percent faster than what occurred in Q4 2016. Atherton once again had the highest price point for the county, likely boosted by the sale of an $18.95 million estate, but its $5.48 million average this quarter was actually down 44 percent from the previous year.
SAN MATEO COUNTY Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$1,788,366
21
$929
change
1%
-2%
1%
Q3 2017
$1,772,515
22
$917
Q4 2017
$1,788,366
21
$929
change
8%
-30%
14%
Q4 2016
$1,659,790
30
$816
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 16 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
5541+ 65+ 62+ 55+ 41+ 66+ 66+ 55+ 37+ 65+ 64+ 51+ 37+ 61+ 58+ 55+ 35+ 65+ 57+ 57+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
$1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000
58+52 6465+ 6272+ 7471+ 7077+ 8280+ 7876+ 8881+ 8378+ 9089+ Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
San Mateo County sellers who priced boldly were able to reap the rewards this quarter as homes requiring no price change sold for 10 percent over asking. Properties that came on the market priced too high experienced a 9 percent loss on final sales price versus original ask. Sales Q4 2017 Q4 2016
without price change
with price change
10
-9 %
3%
-14%
%
Average Sales Price by City The Top 10
The City of San Mateo saw the biggest year-over-year gains in average sales price with its $1.721 million up 25 percent. Redwood Shores followed behind with a 17 percent increase in average sales price to reach $1.926 million. To some surprise, Burlingame’s $2.12 million average was a 4 percent drop from Q4 2016.
City
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Atherton
$5,484,412
$9,879,339
-44%
Portola Valley
$4,031,071
$3,317,200
22%
Hillsborough
$3,991,719
$4,623,830
-14%
Pescadero
$3,450,000
$3,777,500
-9%
> $1000/sqft
Woodside
$2,882,043
$2,843,694
1%
< $1000/sqft
Menlo Park
$2,597,166
$2,393,134
9%
Burlingame
$2,120,127
$2,219,542
-4%
San Carlos
$1,969,430
$1,822,521
8%
Redwood Shores
$1,926,286
$1,641,195
17%
Foster City
$1,924,462
$1,717,767
12%
San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot
< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 17 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Marin County Single-Family Homes Despite being down 5 percent from the previous quarter, Marinâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s average sales price of $1.52 million increased 6 percent from Q4 2016. In fact, seven of the top 10 sales in the North Bay for the fourth quarter took place in Marin County. Sales volume grew only slightly from the previous year, with the 506 total homes sold this quarter being up only 4 percent from Q4 2016. That figure actually declined by 9 percent from Q3 2017. The average home did however sell more quickly in Q4 than both the previous quarter and year, by an increased pace of 13 percent and 20 percent respectively. It took an average of 47 DOM before a home in Marin County went into contract this quarter. The community that saw the biggest gains in 2017 was Bolinas, where the average sales price was up 107 percent annually, reaching $3.1 million this year compared to the $1.503 million it posted in 2016.
MARIN COUNTY Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$1,520,973
47
$656
change
-5%
-13%
-2%
Q3 2017
$1,597,094
55
$667
Q4 2017
$1,520,973
47
$656
change
6%
-20%
4%
Q4 2016
$1,433,891
59
$634
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 18 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
5942+ 77+ 70+ 55+ 42+ 76+ 61+ 52+ 37+ 70+ 62+ 51+ 31+ 67+ 50+ 48+ 33+ 69+ 55+ 50+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
52+5361+6260+7069+6869+7175+ 76+7080+7172+7882+8075 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
$1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
Homes requiring no price change in Marin County this quarter were able to net an addition 4 percent on top of the initial asking price. While sellers who decided to test the Q4 market were only able to recover 90 percent of their original list price.
Sales Q4 2017 Q4 2016
without price change
with price change
4%
-10%
2
-10%
%
Average Sales Price by City The Top 10
Stinson Beach led the way in Q4 with the highest average sales price of $4.37 million, up 35 percent year-over-year. Muir Beach and Greenbrae saw gains of 30 percent and 24 percent, respectively. At $1.694 million, Sausalito’s average sales price actually dipped by 23 percent this quarter.
City
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Stinson Beach
$4,375,000
$3,250,833
35%
Belvedere
$3,935,000
$3,381,909
16%
Kentfield
$2,974,500
$2,638,854
13%
Tiburon
$2,687,093
$2,749,031
-2%
Ross
$2,373,111
$3,012,696
-21%
Muir Beach
$2,087,000
$1,600,000
30%
< $900/sqft
Larkspur
$2,084,708
$1,945,467
7%
< $700/sqft
Greenbrae
$1,871,154
$1,511,214
24%
Mill Valley
$1,733,296
$1,755,215
-1%
Sausalito
$1,694,239
$2,191,825
-23%
Marin County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft
< $500/sqft
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 19 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Napa County Single-Family Homes Similar to Marin, Napa County experienced a slight decline in average sales price from Q3, but was still up 11 percent from Q4 2016. Coming in at $899,207 this quarter, it was the second highest Q4 average recorded for the county in the last 10 years. Napa County was able to hold onto its steadily-growing average price point despite only having a total 279 sales in the fourth quarter of 2017 — resulting in a 12 percent decline from the previous quarter and 9 percent from the previous year. That said, it’s not entirely uncommon to see such sales volume fluctuations in places such as the Bay Area’s Wine Country given that properties tend to attract and appeal to a more specific buyer pool who’s looking to either be farther away from the busy city and/ or take advantage of the more affordable price points. The average home in Napa County spent an average of 79 DOM this quarter before going into contact, slowing down 7 percent from Q4 2016.
NAPA COUNTY Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$889,207
79
$458
change
-7%
9%
2%
Q3 2017
$959,542
73
$450
Q4 2017
$889,207
79
$458
change
11%
7%
4%
Q4 2016
$802,983
74
$439
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 20 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
3626+ 36+ 37+ 31+ 21+ 34+ 30+ 27+ 25+ 35+ 35+ 27+ 23+ 34+ 37+ 31+ 26+ 34+ 31+ 28+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
500 400 300 200 100 0
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400
65+53 52+ 66+ 67+ 68+ 72+ 79+ 83+ 73+ 75+ 78+ 83+ 93+ 96+ 88+ 88+ 80+ 87+ 91+ 95+ Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
For Napa County sellers that priced their properties at what the marketing would bear in Q4 were able to get their whole asking price. On the flipside of that, those who tested the waters only recovered 90 percent of their initial asking price. Sales
without price change
with price change
Q4 2017
0
%
-10%
Q4 2016
0
%
-10%
Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10
St. Helena had the highest average sales price for Napa County in Q4 at $1.813 million. The average sales price in Angwin, at $678,000 this quarter, rose 166 percent from $255,000 in Q4 2016. Four transactions took place here in Q4 within the $600K-$700K category. Calistoga and Yountville both saw declines of 16 percent and 11 percent year-over-year.
City
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
St. Helena
$1,813,749
$1,679,616
8%
Deer Park
$1,387,500
$605,000
129%
Yountville
$998,000
$1,118,063
-11%
Calistoga
$990,000
$1,174,179
-16%
Napa
$849,280
$719,728
18%
< $1000/sqft
Angwin
$678,750
$255,000
166%
< $900/sqft
American Canyon
$504,803
$494,867
2%
Pope Valley
$200,000
$449,500
-56%
Oakville
n/a
$1,835,000
n/a
Rutherford
n/a
$3,000,000
n/a
Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft
< $700/sqft < $500/sqft
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 21 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Sonoma County Single-Family Homes Sonoma County followed its record-setting Q3 average sales price of $766,737 with a 3 percent gain this quarter. At $791,223 for the county, this Q4 average became the highest recorded figure in the past 10 years. It also accounted for a 10 percent rise year-over-year from the $720,875 seen in Q4 2016. The total number of homes sold fell by 15 percent from the previous quarter, but did see a 5 percent rise from the previous year. In all, Sonoma County had 1,103 transactions take place during the fourth quarter. Homes in Sonoma County spent an average of 62 DOM prior to close, for an 8 percent (or 5 days) faster transaction process than last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 67 DOM. The community with the most notable year-overyear gains this quarter was Kenwood, where the average sales price reached $2.564 million, a significant increase from the $922,500 recorded just a year ago.
SONOMA COUNTY Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$791,223
62
$420
change
3%
10%
2%
Q3 2017
$766,737
56
$411
Q4 2017
$791,223
62
$420
change
10%
-8%
7%
Q4 2016
$720,875
67
$391
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 22 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
7163+ 48+ 70+ 69+ 55+ 44+ 62+ 68+ 56+ 38+ 68+ 63+ 42+ 61+ 61+ 51+ 42+ 60+ 64+ 55+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
47+44 4654+ 55+ 59+ 5960+ 5966+ 63+ 6670+ 72+ 74+ 79 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
$800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
Sonoma’s relatively steady marketplace meant that properties priced appropriately, requiring no reductions, sold at 102 percent of the initial asking price. Homes that received price changes took home only 91 percent of the original list price. without price change
with price change
Q4 2017
Sales
2%
-9%
Q4 2016
1
-8%
%
Average Sales Price by City The Top 10
After Kenwood, Geyserville saw the next highest average sales price in Q4 at $1.284 million, up 28 percent yearover-year. A $7.996 million home sale in Healdsburg was the most expensive transaction in Sonoma County this quarter, helping to maintain the area’s average sales price of $1.174 million.
City
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Kenwood
$2,564,000
$922,500
178%
Geyserville
$1,284,917
$1,004,000
28%
Healdsburg
$1,174,140
$1,124,750
4%
Sonoma
$1,172,806
$914,359
28%
Penngrove
$1,070,200
$1,031,250
4%
< $1000/sqft
Bodega Bay
$996,650
$924,136
8%
< $900/sqft
Sebastopol
$962,099
$991,946
-3%
< $700/sqft
Glen Ellen
$956,077
$1,922,182
-50%
Jenner
$953,850
n/a
n/a
The Sea Ranch
$915,272
$861,741
6%
Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft
< $500/sqft
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 23 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Alameda County Single-Family Homes Alameda County, and the East Bay as a whole, continues to be an attractive alternative to those searching outside of the higher-priced markets lacking available and affordable inventory. This heightened interest in the area over the last few years has led to a steadily rising average sales price for Alameda County and this quarter was no different. At $966,870, the average home here sold for 11 percent more than it did last year when the average was $873,681. Alameda Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fourth quarter average sales price was also up 2 percent from Q3 2017. A total of 2,640 homes sold in the county this quarter for an 8 percent gain yearover-year. Alameda County also tied with San Mateo County for the quickest turnaround times seen in the Bay Area, averaging just 21 DOM, and thereby moving the transactional process along at a 20 percent faster rate than last year.
ALAMEDA COUNTY Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$966,870
21
$554
change
2%
6%
3%
Q3 2017
$950,445
20
$536
Q4 2017
$966,870
21
$554
change
11%
-20%
11%
Q4 2016
$873,681
26
$497
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 24 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
6546+ 65+ 72+ 63+ 45+ 65+ 72+ 60+ 41+ 73+ 71+ 62+ 42+ 69+ 70+ 61+ 42+ 70+ 70+ 68+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
$950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500
54+5668+ 66+ 79+7574+7686+8280+8191+8687+8898+9596 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
For sellers whose properties weren’t affected by a price change, they were able to accumulate an additional 9 percent on their initial asking price. Those who priced too high and were forced to reduce still recovered 94 percent of their original list price.
Sales Q4 2017 Q4 2016
without price change
with price change
9%
-6%
7
-7%
%
Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10
Piedmont once again took home the highest average price point for Alameda County at $2.28 million this quarter. Hayward’s $937,502 average sales price was a 30 percent increase from Q4 2016. Both Fremont and Albany saw 17 percent increases to reach $1.205 million and $1.177 million, respectively.
City
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Piedmont
$2,288,405
$2,150,143
6%
Sunol
$1,899,900
$1,949,667
-3%
Pleasanton
$1,365,002
$1,244,234
10%
Berkeley
$1,326,627
$1,269,275
5%
Fremont
$1,205,811
$1,030,986
17%
< $1000/sqft
Albany
$1,177,250
$1,003,213
17%
< $900/sqft
Alameda
$1,081,208
$1,013,499
7%
Dublin
$1,021,716
$983,409
4%
Hayward
$937,502
$723,667
30%
Union City
$929,694
$809,295
15%
Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft
< $700/sqft < $500/sqft
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 25 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes The East Bay’s narrative of attractive affordability was only further supported by Contra Costa County this quarter, touting a very desirable (among buyers) $770,454 average sales price. While it fell a slight 3 percent from Q3’s $795,423 benchmark, the county’s fourth quarter price point was still a 9 percent increase from Q4 2016. Contra Costa County had the largest sales volume of all Bay Area counties with 2,643 total homes sold in Q4, down 13 percent from the previous quarter, but a four percent gain over the previous year. The average seller saw their property go into contract after just 27 DOM, which was 10 percent faster than Q4 2016. Nearly all of the top 10 cities in Contra Costa County experienced year-over-year gains during the fourth quarter of the year—which really comes as no surprise given the considerable amount of people migrating to the area for its quality lifestyle, growing infrastructure, and top-rated schools.
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Average Sales Price
Days on Market
Average Price Per Sq. Ft.
Q4 2017
$770,454
27
$385
change
-3%
12%
0%
Q3 2017
$795,423
24
$384
Q4 2017
$770,454
27
$385
change
9%
-10%
10%
Q4 2016
$705,947
30
$349
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 26 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
2520+ 2729+ 2318+ 2728+ 2318+ 30+ 2521+ 32+ 2720+ 30+ 26 Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter
4000 3000 2000 1000 0
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300
47+ 4962+ 6159+ 5869+ 6863+ 6474+ 7166+ 6977+ 7271+ 7284+ 8077+ Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)
Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16 Q3‘16 Q4‘16 Q1‘17 Q2‘17 Q3‘17 Q4‘17
Sales Price Change
Properties that didn’t require a price change in Q4 netted 3 percent on top of the original asking price. While those who tested the market took a 6 percent less on the initial list price.
Sales
without price change
with price change
Q4 2017
%
3
-6%
Q4 2016
2%
-7%
Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10
Diablo had the second highest average sales price at $1.95 million, trailing closely behind Alamo’s $1.984 million. It was also Diablo which saw the largest year-over-year gain of 28 percent in Q4. Both Danville and Lafayette saw a 10 percent increase in average sales price this quarter.
City
Q4 2017
Q4 2016
change
Alamo
$1,984,395
$1,850,908
7%
Diablo
$1,950,000
$1,522,000
28%
Orinda
$1,519,574
$1,570,906
-3%
Danville
$1,465,596
$1,326,459
10%
Lafayette
$1,459,650
$1,322,195
10%
Moraga
$1,381,011
$1,236,736
12%
San Ramon
$1,169,761
$1,058,720
10%
< $700/sqft
Kensington
$1,128,369
$1,178,704
-4%
< $500/sqft
Walnut Creek
$1,095,379
$1,060,972
3%
$953,854
$871,523
9%
Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft
El Cerrito
* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance
Page 27 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter 2017
S AN F R ANCI S C O Marina 2001 Lombard Street San Francisco, CA 94123 Ph: 415.929.1500 South Beach 168 South Park Street San Francisco, CA 94107 Ph: 415.296.1000 Noe Valley 100 Clipper Street San Francisco, CA 94114 Ph: 415.642.8000
mcguire.com | 415.296.2163
M AR IN Mill Valley 1040 Redwood Highway
For nearly 100 years, McGuire Real Estate has been recognized as a premier real estate brokerage throughout the Bay Area. How are we able to consistently live up to such high expectations? We do it through the abilities of our sales people — the Bay Area’s Best!
Mill Valley, CA 94941 Ph: 415.383.8500 E AS T B AY Elmwood 2991 College Avenue Berkeley, CA 94705 Ph: 510.883.7000 P E NI NS UL A
Live Luxuriously
Burlingame 360 Primrose Road Burlingame, CA 94010 Ph: 650.348.0222 W I NE COUNTRY Ph: 415.296.2163
Follow McGuire Real Estate