McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report | Second Quarter 2016 by McGuire Real Estate

SECOND QUARTER 2016

* Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 2 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Table of Contents Letter from the President

Page 4

Regional Market Trends

Page 5

The Luxury Market

Page 8

San Francisco County

Page 12

San Mateo County

Page 16

Marin County

Page 18

Napa County

Page 20

Sonoma County

Page 22

Alameda County

Page 24

Contra Costa County

Page 26

Counties Represented

Napa Sonoma Marin Contra Costa San Francisco

Alameda

San Mateo

Page 3 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Letter from the President

Charles Moore President and CEO

Strong but Stable Q2 2016 Points to Growing Buyer-Seller Balance In a quarter that saw Bay Area average sales prices continue to reach record highs, there was a less pronounced but arguably more important occurrence. Slowing appreciation rates are finally beginning to kick in after several years of activity that left many wondering if a sales price ceiling actually existed in the Bay Area housing market. In short, the gap between supply and demand is finally beginning to narrow, and those potential buyers who’ve weathered the storm could not be greeted with better news. For the casual observer, it might sound like business as usual that five of the seven counties we represent achieved new record average sales price highs, and that sales volume was down in each county. But when one considers that what is typically a peak quarter only saw a 5 percent year-over-year average home sales price gain across the Bay Area—including San Francisco actually seeing its average sales price drop—the picture starts to come into focus. After all, the market had grown at an average of nearly 12 percent per year from Q2 2012 to Q2 2015.

“The market is, after all, still appreciating. It’s simply just going do so at a stable rate, as opposed to the frenetic

Does this mean that Bay Area homeowners should start selling homes quicker than brokers dropped European

pace of the past five years.”

equities in the wake of Brexit news? Quite the opposite. The market is, after all, still appreciating. It’s simply just going do so at a stable rate, as opposed to the frenetic pace of the past five years. As much was expected when the California Association of REALTORS® released its late-2015 report in which statewide home appreciation was predicted to reach just 3.2 percent in 2016—half of the previous year’s predicted gains. Among prevailing trends this quarter was a major interest in sub-$1 million properties, which due to a dearth of such inventory, affected both San Francisco’s home and condominium sector. San Francisco luxury homes—defined by the top ten percent of all sales—saw a noticeable year-over-year average sales price decrease of 15 percent. Meanwhile, more affordably priced counties in the East and North Bays raked in the spillover. And when buyers did look for the Bay Area’s most luxurious homes, they generally set their sights on the Mid-Peninsula and Marin County (with the Mid-Peninsula and North Bay both seeing luxury sales price average up 10 percent from Q2 2015). As we look ahead to the fall elections, an economic uncertainty akin to the summer and fall of 2012 could restrain buyers and will certainly test the resilience of consumer confidence. We expect the single-family home markets in the lower end throughout San Francisco to be active given the need for affordable housing and the finite amount of supply. We’ve also learned from Q2 2016 that the market seems to finally be evening out—a factor that could incentivize both potential sellers and buyers to step out from the sidelines and create a more active and negotiable market.

view this report on our website: mcguire.com/quarterly_report * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 4 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Regional Market Trends While there were some headline-worthy patterns in terms of sales prices and volume this quarter, the common thread that ran through nearly all counties was one of stability. Sellers can be enthused that five of the seven counties we represent recorded all-time-high average home sale prices, but buyers should also take note that Q2 is known for big prices, and these average gains were noticeably lower than in the previous several years. While it might be startling to hear that all seven counties saw year-over-year home sales decline, the flip side is that five counties were down by a meager 5 percent or less, with even the highest sales volume drop being only 11 percent in Sonoma County. These trends were particularly pronounced in the three most affluent counties: San Francisco, Mid-Peninsula and Marin County. The $1.736 million average home sale in San Mateo County was up 5 percent from its previous record price set in Q2 2015. To put the market’s easing up into perspective, that Q2 2015 price was up $160,000 from Q2 2014, and the Q2 2014 price was up $200,000 from Q2 2013. The point being that despite an all-time record, the market’s year-over-year appreciation rate is slowing down noticeably. Also in line with market stabilization, San Mateo County posted just two percent less sales this quarter than in Q2 2015. Marin County experienced a similar trend, with its record $1.597 average home sales up a modest 6 percent year-over-year, and sales volume down just 4 percent from the previous year. San Francisco saw its average sales price down year-over-year, but only by 4 percent, with the quarter still ranking as the second-highest in city history. Meanwhile, sales volume was almost identical to the number of homes sold in Q2 2015. The city’s condominium market acted similarly, with average sales prices down 2 percent year-over-year and units sold down 8 percent. Much of this activity was indicative of homes at $1 million or less being the ideal purchase for city buyers. The more affordable East Bay counties saw a bit more strength, mainly due to the factor of desirability toward modestly priced homes. Contra Costa County and Alameda County witnessed record average sales prices, up 4 percent and 6 percent year-over-year, respectively. Homes in Alameda County moved rather quickly in an average of just 18 DOM), however both communities did see a slight drop-off in the number total sales. The fact that Napa County was the only area to have its average sale price drop from Q1 2016 could also be easily misconstrued. The county’s numbers were inflated by some massively priced properties leaving the market in the previous two quarters. In fact, Napa County saw a considerable 14 percent year-over-year gain while just 3 percent less properties sold than in Q2 2015. This trend of stability continued into neighboring Sonoma County, where a record average home sale price was up 7 percent year-over-year, but also where sales were down 11 percent.

All REGIONS

$2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 0

Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Quantity

Q2 2016

$1,046,592

$537

9850

change

13%

-27%

10%

64%

Q1 2016

$928,971

$487

6020

Q2 2016

$1,046,592

$537

9850

change

-6%

-4%

Q2 2015

$995,080

$511

10298

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

22+20292645514649+23304748+22284649+21274548+20275357+24315652+25305264+253358+26316468+323865+32386268+31387270+37417477+36407068+34406877+35417782+38467889+39457877+37447782+415087 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

East Bay

North Bay

Mid-Peninsula

San Francisco

Page 5 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Regional Market Share Slightly lower than average sales volume tallies were easily offset by strong average sale prices, as the Bay Area netted a total of $10.309 billion this quarter. This included the Bay Areaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s average home sale of $1.046 million being up 5 percent year-overyear. The East Bay accounted for 47 percent of cash share and 58 percent of total sales. The North Bay totaled 22 percent of cash share and 23 percent of all sales. The Mid-Peninsula provided 21 percent of cash share and 13 percent of all sales. San Francisco contributed 10 percent of cash share and 6 percent of all sales. These figures were all very typical in terms of what weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve seen over the past few years.

6+13+2358A 10+21+2247A Market Share by Unit

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 6%

San Francisco 10%

Mid-Peninsula 13%

Mid-Peninsula 21%

North Bay 23%

North Bay 22%

East Bay 58%

East Bay 47%

Page 6 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Quantity Sold by Price Single-Family Homes North Bay: 2229 Marin, Napa, Sonoma

East Bay: 5748 Contra Costa, Alameda

San Francisco: 609

> $5,000,000 < $4,000,000

Mid-Peninsula: 1264

< $3,000,000 < $2,000,000 < $1,000,000 > $1,000,000

Page 7 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

The Luxury Market The luxury market—defined by the top 10 percent of all sales in the markets we serve—displayed more varied figures than were seen in the general housing market, but all in all the same effect of balance and stability can be applied to the four Bay Area regions when looked at as a whole. That said, some areas fared noticeably better than others. The Mid-Peninsula performed dominantly, with its $5.284 million average sales price up 10 percent year-over-year and its 1,223 sales up 6 percent from Q2 2015. This included 12 sales of $10 million or more, with a $19.75 million sale in Atherton registering as the Bay Area’s top sale this quarter. Expect increasingly popular areas like Woodside and Atherton to continue attracting eager ultra-prime buyers as 2016 continues to unfold. The North Bay also performed well, with its $3.121 million average sales up 10 percent year-over-year. This was slightly counterbalanced, however, by the 227 sales for the region being down 6 percent from Q2 2015. However, luxury homes in the North Bay did move at a healthy pace of 51 DOM during the second quarter—an average that was 37 percent faster than the previous year. San Francisco’s activity stood in stark contrast to that of the Mid-Peninsula and North Bay. The $4.913 million average sale here was down 15 percent year-over-year, in addition to the average 40 DOM being nearly double what it was from a year prior. It should be noted that this signifies less of a depreciation in the San Francisco luxury sector than it does a time in which less high-priced inventory is available in the city and more buyers are looking for more economical options. The East Bay showed more of a stabilized effect than all other regions. The $1.912 average home sale was flat in comparison to the previous year, and total sales volume was down just 3 percent from Q2 2015. This activity came in the wake of a Q1 2016 that saw a large amount of high-priced East Bay properties enter and be absorbed by the market.

Page 8 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

SAN FRANCISCO Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$4,912,759

$1,295

change

74%

37%

-3%

Q1 2016

$4,790,053

$1,341

Q2 2016

$4,912,759

$1,295

change

-15%

-2%

100%

-5%

Q2 2015

$5,755,529

$1,369

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$5,283,936

126

$1,223

change

25%

66%

-25%

Q1 2016

$4,225,063

$1,197

Q2 2016

$5,283,936

126

$1,223

change

10%

-10%

17%

Q2 2015

$4,811,960

140

$1,158

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$3,120,985

227

$938

change

17%

66%

-59%

14%

Q1 2016

$2,663,612

137

126

$820

Q2 2016

$3,120,985

227

$938

change

10%

-6%

-37%

11%

Q2 2015

$2,831,484

242

$849

Average Sales Price

Quantity

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$1,911,870

580

$572

change

-8%

156%

-39%

Q1 2016

$2,074,758

227

$548

Q2 2016

$1,911,870

580

$572

change

-3%

Q2 2015

$1,907,453

599

$561

MID-PENINSULA

NORTH BAY

EAST BAY

Page 9 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Bay Area Luxury Market Share The Mid-Peninsulaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strong performance led the way with 38 percent of cash share ($1.148 billion) and 35 percent of all Bay Area luxury sales. The North Bay added 24 percent of cash share and 23 percent of sales volume. The East Bay contributed 19 percent of cash share and 24 percent of all sales. San Francisco provided 19 percent of cash share and 18 percent of total sales. This amounted to 985 luxury sales for a total of $2.988 billion in Q2 2016.

18+35+2324A 19+38+2419A Market Share by Unit

Market Share by Volume

San Francisco 18%

San Francisco 19%

Mid-Peninsula 35%

Mid-Peninsula 38%

North Bay 23%

North Bay 24%

East Bay 24%

East Bay 19%

Page 10 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

Sales Trends Luxury Homes

Price Range As a Percent of Sales $0-$500K

$500K-$1M

$1M-$2M

Price Per Square Foot

$2M-$3M

$3M-$5M

> $1,000/sqft >= $1,000/sqft >= $900/sqft

$5M+

>= $700/sqft >= $500/sqft

San Francisco Single-Family Homes

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015

< $500/sqft

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=230 +0 540 + 130 + 70 + 30+ =10230 + 540 + 130 + 68 + 29+ =10270 + +470140 + 70 + 33+

23%

29%

54%

13%

47%

27%

13%

47%

14%

2.8%

2.9%

3.3%

Mid-Peninsula 0%

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=310 +0 475 + 110 + 60 + 34+ =10410 + 400 + 100 + +5020+ =10350 + 450 + 110 + 50 + 26+

31%

47%

41%

35%

11%

40%

45%

3.4%

10%

2.3%

11%

2.6%

North Bay 0%

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=200510 + 200 + 50 + 20+10+ =280500 + 170 + 30+10+6+ =280460 + 190 + 35+20+10+

20%

28%

51%

50%

28%

20%

46%

2% .9%

17% 3%

1% .66%

19% 4%

2% .58%

East Bay 0%

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

=250490 + 240 + 22+4+1 =340470 + 170 + 16+3+1 =300465 + 215 + 22+4+1 25%

49%

34%

30%

47%

46%

24%

2.24% 0.43% 0.03%

17%

1.75% 0.31% 0.06%

21%

2.21% 0.47% 0.03%

Page 11 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 1st Quarter 2016

San Francisco County Single-Family Homes In the midst of the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s frantic demand and price escalations during 2015â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s peak months, San Francisco witnessed a more balanced and stable market this quarter. While the $1.762 million average home sale was the second-highest in market history, it was down 4 percent from the record posted in Q2 2015. With an average of 28 DOM, homes also moved more slowly this quarter than a year prior and multiple offers were less prevalent. The slight price dip can also be attributed to sub-$1 million homes increasingly becoming the most broad-based desired purchases in the city. The 609 homes sold this quarter was almost identical to what we saw a year prior.

SAN FRANCISCO - SFH Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$1,761,835

$873

change

-8%

Q1 2016

$1,688,739

$862

Q2 2016

$1,761,835

$873

change

-4%

15%

Q2 2015

$1,831,034

$863

Page 12 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

6559+ 65+ 51+ 69+ 62+ 68+ 49+ 73+ 67+ 67+ 45+ 59+ 60+ 65+ 40+ 61+ 57+ 62+ 35+ 61+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

$1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

49+4849+4857+5264+5868+6568+7077+7077+8590+7582+8488 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted the Bay Arealeading 15 percent gain on initial listing. While down slightly from the massive 19 percent appreciation in Q2 2015, this number still exemplifies how in-demand properties are in this low-inventory market. As for sellers who tested the market, received 89 percent of the initial asking price. Sales Q2 2016 Q2 2015

without price change

with price change

15%

-11%

19%

-9%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Russian Hill remained strong, with a 45 percent year-over-year gain and its average home commanding nearly $4 million. This was in line with the ongoing trend of much of the northeast corridor posting strong gains.

Neighborhood

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Presidio Heights

$8,021,143

$7,546,667

Pacific Heights

$5,829,400

$10,095,375

-42%

Duboce Triangle

$4,550,000

$2,850,000

60%

Russian Hill

$3,958,333

$2,726,250

45%

> $1000/sqft

Marina District

$3,779,000

$3,451,914

< $1000/sqft

Cow Hollow

$3,775,000

$4,654,000

-19%

Lower Pacific Heights

$3,637,500

$2,850,000

28%

Nob Hill

$3,447,500

$1,300,000

165%

Laurel Heights

$3,397,500

$2,460,000

38%

Haight Ashbury

$3,243,425

$3,212,500

San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot

< $900/sqft < $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 13 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

San Francisco County Condominiums Activity in the condominium sector was very similar to that within the rest of the city’s housing market. Both average unit sales price and the number of total sales experienced a stabilizing effect in comparison with Q2 2015. The $1.265 average sale—the city’s second-highest in history—was down 2 percent yearover-year. The 594 total units sold was an 8 percent decline year-over-year. The upper end of the South of Market and South Beach condominium sector also saw decreased activity. This was due in part to buyers being more comfortable with home investments, and also the knowledge that a large number of condominium openings in late 2016 and early 2017 could provide options that are both more affordable and more plentiful.

SAN FRANCISCO - CONDOMINIUMS Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$1,264,763

$1,053

change

-1%

Q1 2016

$1,242,147

$1,045

Q2 2016

$1,264,763

$1,053

change

-2%

23%

Q2 2015

$1,297,153

$1,039

Page 14 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

55+ 48+ 45+ 46+ 69+ 66+ 58+ 50+ 75+ 69+ 66+ 53+ 71+ 61+ 59+ 46+ 65+ 51+ 59+ 43+ 59+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

35+4035+3938+41 +46 +5049+5152+5854+5561+6260+6162+63 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

$1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

As multiple offers dwindled, units that required no price change netted 7 percent on top of initial asking price, down a substantial 5 percent year-over-year. Sellers who tested the market were still able to recover a strong 92 percent of initial list price. Sales Q2 2016 Q2 2015

without price change

with price change

-8%

12%

-7%

Average Sales Price by Neighborhood - The Top 10

Cole Valley and Hayes Valley performed particularly well, with year-over-year average sales gains up 34 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

Neighborhood

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Presidio Heights

$2,901,000

$2,966,667

-2%

Yerba Buena

$1,952,000

$1,934,196

Pacific Heights

$1,706,458

$1,656,377

Telegraph Hill

$1,706,000

$2,031,000

-16%

Clarendon Heights

$1,650,000

N/A

< $1000/sqft

Lower Pacific Heights

$1,633,778

$1,724,881

-5%

< $900/sqft

Russian Hill

$1,487,624

$2,095,474

-29%

Financial District

$1,487,000

$1,464,375

Twin Peaks

$1,450,000

$829,913

75%

Cole Valley

$1,447,542

$1,076,833

34%

San Francisco Condominium Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 15 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

San Mateo County Single-Family Homes A spillover effect from San Francisco’s relatively tranquil Q2 activity helped aid affluent neighboring counties like the Mid-Peninsula. The county’s $1.736 million average home sale was at an all-time high, up 5 percent year-over-year. This included 12 sales of more than $10 million. While the 1,264 total home sales wasn’t a stellar number, it was only a 2 percent drop year-over-year—in line with a prominent Bay Area trend of high sales prices and modest sales volume this quarter. The average 20 DOM was an extremely low figure for such an affluent area and was the second-fastest turnaround time among all seven counties we represent.

SAN MATEO COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$1,736,023

$841

change

14%

-28%

Q1 2016

$1,521,198

$802

Q2 2016

$1,736,023

$841

change

-14%

Q2 2015

$1,647,179

$797

Page 16 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

55+ 54+ 36+ 40+ 64+ 53+ 55+ 41+ 65+ 62+ 55+ 41+ 66+ 66+ 55+ 36+ 70+ 69+ 50+ 38+ 63+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

$1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

47+51 4645+ 5356+ 5258+ 6465+ 6272+ 7471+ 7077+ 8280+ 7876+ 87 Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change netted 106 percent of initial asking price. Sellers who tested the market often reached quite high, resulting in a 12 percent loss on initial listing.

Sales Q2 2016 Q2 2015

without price change

with price change

-12%

10%

-11%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Atherton properties only continued to see strong price gains, with the average sale of $7.991 million up 15 percent year-over-year. This included the Bay Area’s top Q2 sale of $19.75 million. Woodside also posted an impressive 26 percent year-over-year gain.

City

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Atherton

$7,991,309

$6,933,517

15%

Woodside

$5,256,545

$4,162,170

26%

Hillsborough

$4,082,483

$4,268,199

-4%

Portola Valley

$3,049,335

$3,243,120

-6%

Menlo Park

$2,400,896

$2,207,893

Burlingame

$2,165,241

$2,162,794

< $1000/sqft

San Carlos

$1,817,803

$1,564,111

16%

< $900/sqft

Redwood Shores

$1,797,500

$1,714,159

Foster City

$1,681,000

$1,588,940

Millbrae

$1,580,952

$1,465,079

San Mateo County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 17 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Marin County Single-Family Homes Marin County also absorbed some of the San Franciscoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s spillover effect in its high-priced sector, with the average home sale closing at $1.597 million. This was a record price for Marin County homes, and was up 6 percent from Q2 2015. Marin County also witnessed the most drastic change in average DOM, with homes selling in just 37 DOM, a pace that was 30 percent faster than a year prior. This can be attributed to both an onslaught of desirable properties hitting the market this spring as well as many older estates that had spent a long time on the market exiting last winter. The 675 total sales was down 4 percent from Q2 2015â&#x20AC;&#x201D;right in line with the modest-but-stable sales volume we saw in both San Francisco and Marin Counties.

MARIN COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$1,597,033

$662

change

15%

-43%

118%

Q1 2016

$1,390,373

$304

Q2 2016

$1,597,033

$662

change

-30%

-3%

Q2 2015

$1,501,369

$679

Page 18 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

5552+ 44+ 43+ 67+ 66+ 59+ 42+ 77+ 70+ 55+ 42+ 76+ 61+ 52+ 37+ 70+ 62+ 51+ 31+ 67+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

53+5048+4753+5052+5361+6260+7069+6869+7175+ 76+7080 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

$1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

With homes priced at top dollar, sellers netted just 3 percent on top of initial asking price. Those who tested the market were still able to recover 91 percent of their initial listing.

Sales Q2 2016 Q2 2015

without price change

with price change

-9%

-10%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Stinson Beach, Larkspur and Ross all posted strong yearover-year gains, improving by 51 percent, 33 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

City

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Ross

$4,404,778

$3,515,000

25%

Belvedere

$4,028,938

$7,614,000

-47%

Stinson Beach

$3,735,357

$2,478,349

51%

Tiburon

$2,885,144

$2,667,363

Kentfield

$2,667,476

$2,767,104

-4%

< $1000/sqft

Sausalito

$2,022,011

$1,934,276

< $900/sqft

Larkspur

$1,967,528

$1,478,574

33%

Greenbrae

$1,871,318

$1,794,594

Mill Valley

$1,806,013

$1,834,075

-2%

Corte Madera

$1,545,905

$1,476,227

Marin County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 19 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Napa County Single-Family Homes Napa County was the only county to see its average sales price drop from Q2 2015, but it also saw the

NAPA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$888,001

$334

change

-8%

-35%

49%

Q1 2016

$964,164

102

$224

Q2 2016

$888,001

$334

often at record prices. Napa County homes sold after

change

14%

-16%

-4%

66 DOM, on average, moving 16 percent faster than

Q2 2015

$780,842

$347

highest year-over-year gain among all seven counties, with its $888,001 average sale up 14 percent from Q2 2015. This rather anomalous behavior speaks to a comparatively delayed price surge that began in Q3 2015 as buyers largely flocked to the county, seeing it as an affordably priced alternative to areas like Marin, San Mateo and San Francisco Counties. That reputation held traction this quarter with homes selling briskly and

the previous year. Meanwhile, the 335 total sales was right in line with what we witnessed here in Q2 2015. * Data is sourced from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, the East Bay Region District Listing Service, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, and MLS Listings (MLS). MLS data is provided by individual listing brokerages. These are sources we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt their accuracy, but we do not guarantee them. Past performance does not guarantee future performance

Page 20 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

29+ 36+ 34+ 32+ 31+ 42+ 38+ 36+ 26+ 36+ 38+ 30+ 21+ 34+ 2725+ 34+ 35+ 27+ 22+ 33+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

500 400 300 200 100 0

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400

43+49 51+ 49+ 50+ 53+ 65+ 52+ 66+ 67+ 68+ 72+ 79+ 83+ 73+ 75+ 78+ 83+ 93+ 96+ 88+ Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

With aggressive pricing, homes typically did not move much above the initial asking price. Sellers who tested the market saw a 91 percent recovery of their initial asking price—a slight improvement in their favor from a year prior. Sales Q2 2016 Q2 2015

without price change

with price change

-9%

-11%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

St. Helena showed some of the strongest gains in Napa County this quarter, with its $2.255 million average home sale up 53 percent year-over-year. These figures came from a sizeable data pool of more than two dozen closings.

City

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Oakville

$2,950,000

N/A

St. Helena

$2,255,321

$1,469,447

53%

Angwin

$1,957,000

$766,250

155%

Yountville

$968,238

$2,051,889

-53%

Calistoga

$870,235

$904,247

-4%

< $1000/sqft

Napa

$788,334

$689,701

14%

< $900/sqft

American Canyon

$461,865

$439,085

Pope Valley

$157,500

$450,800

-65%

Napa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 21 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Sonoma County Single-Family Homes For the first time in market history, Sonoma Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s average home sale price exceeded $700,000. The $703,420 average sales in Sonoma County was up 7 percent year-over-year, and serves as another reminder of how the more affordably priced North Bay counties are continuing to experience upward appreciation, even as much of the surrounding market stabilizes. The average Sonoma County home sold in just 58 DOM this quarter. It should be noted that the 1,219 homes sold this quarter marked an 11 percent year-over-year dropâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the highest figure among all seven counties we serve this quarter. With limited inventory becoming more of an issue, the market here remains favorable for sellers.

SONOMA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$703,420

$1,206

change

-23%

47%

Q1 2016

$661,723

$819

Q2 2016

$703,420

$1,206

change

-10%

Q2 2015

$659,768

$1,341

Page 22 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

4958+ 63+ 61+ 58+ 74+ 71+ 63+ 48+ 70+ 69+ 55+ 44+ 62+ 68+ 56+ 38+ 68+ 63+ 42+ 61+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

42+40 4138+ 4045+ 4447+ 4654+ 55+ 59+ 5960+ 5866+ 6266+ 70 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

$650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes were generally priced in accordance with buyer expectations, as those who required no price change netted 102 percent of initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market were able to retain 91 percent. without price change

with price change

Q2 2016

Sales

-9%

Q2 2015

-9%

Average Sales Price by City The Top 10

Glen Ellen and Healdsburg both posted strong year-over-year gains, up 43 percent and 37 percent, respectively. Among Healdsburg’s sizable data pool of more than 50 sales was included a county-high closing of $15.25 million.

City

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Healdsburg

$1,549,181

$1,130,567

37%

Kenwood

$1,263,750

$1,260,083

Glen Ellen

$1,230,822

$858,172

43%

Sonoma

$946,196

$966,571

-2%

Sebastopol

$904,283

$824,034

10%

Penngrove

$808,538

$816,667

-1%

Graton

$792,000

$507,500

56%

< $700/sqft

Bodega Bay

$784,861

$758,571

< $500/sqft

Jenner

$755,000

$539,667

40%

The Sea Ranch

$694,342

$868,092

-20%

Sonoma County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 23 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Alameda County Single-Family Homes At $912,754, Alameda County’s average home sale hit a new record high. This figure was up 6 percent from the previous record achieved in Q2 2015 and continues in the trend of more affordably priced counties seeing steady valuation. This activity occurred with the average home selling in a brisk 18 DOM—the fastest turnaround time among all seven counties we serve. While the 2,763 homes sold was down 5 percent yearover-year, this number was in stark contrast to a first quarter in which inventory seemed all but non-existent. The more affluent counties might not see much price appreciation in 2016, but Alameda County—and most of the East Bay for that matter—continues to impress with its alluring affordability.

ALAMEDA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$912,754

$509

change

11%

-30%

Q1 2016

$821,108

$468

Q2 2016

$912,754

$509

change

-6%

Q2 2015

$862,077

$470

Page 24 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

7270+ 67+ 59+ 81+ 74+ 65+ 46+ 65+ 72+ 63+ 45+ 65+ 72+ 60+ 41+ 73+ 72+ 64+ 50+ 73+ Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

49+4845+4351+54 +5668+ 66+ 79+7574+7686+8280+8191 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

$900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

Homes that required no price change gained 9 percent on top of initial asking price, while sellers who tested the market recovered a strong 93 percent of asking price. This second figure tied with Contra Costa as the most seller-friendly amongst all seven Bay Area counties. Sales Q2 2016 Q2 2015

without price change

with price change

-7%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

The even-keeled strength of Alameda County could be seen in just how well-balanced average price gains were this quarter. Every city from Fremont to Berkeley performed nearly right in line with the average 6 percent gain seen for the county as a whole.

City

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Piedmont

$2,255,863

$2,318,963

-3%

Sunol

$1,365,000

$1,249,992

Pleasanton

$1,302,918

$1,209,671

Berkeley

$1,291,690

$1,182,316

Fremont

$1,079,158

$1,029,963

Dublin

$1,026,602

$982,384

Alameda

$1,015,898

$993,054

Albany

$931,605

$945,665

-1%

< $700/sqft

Emeryville

$875,000

$747,800

17%

< $500/sqft

Union City

$839,420

$746,672

12%

Alameda County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft < $1000/sqft < $900/sqft

Page 25 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

Contra Costa County Single-Family Homes Like neighboring Alameda County, Contra Costa County showed that the East Bay’s upward valuation hasn’t quite died down yet. The $767,472 average home sale here was also a record county high, up 4 percent from Q2 2015’s previous benchmark. Homes continued to move rapidly here as well, with an average of just 21 DOM across the county. This occurred as a Bay Area-high 2,985 homes sold, down just slightly from Q2 2015.

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Average Sales Price

Days on Market

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

Q2 2016

$767,472

$361

change

12%

-30%

10%

Q1 2016

$685,198

$328

Q2 2016

$767,472

$361

change

-3%

Q2 2015

$736,101

$342

Page 26 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

32+ 2826+ 3430+ 2520+ 2729+ 2318+ 2728+ 2318+ 30+ 2521+ 32 Quantity Sold — Five Years/Quarter

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300

41+36 37+ 46+ 47+ 4962+ 6361+ 5969+ 63+ 7471+ 6668+ 76 Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Average Sales Price Five Years/Quarter (in thousands)

Q2‘11 Q3‘11 Q4‘11 Q1‘12 Q2‘12 Q3’12 Q4‘12 Q1‘13 Q2‘13 Q3‘13 Q4‘13 Q1‘14 Q2‘14 Q3‘14 Q4‘14 Q1‘15 Q2‘15 Q3‘15 Q4‘15 Q1‘16 Q2‘16

Sales Price Change

Contra Costa County buyer and seller expectations were perhaps the most reasonable among all seven counties this quarter. Sellers who required no price change netted 103 percent of initial asking price, while those who tested the market received a reassuring 93 percent of their initial listing. Sales

without price change

with price change

Q2 2016

-7%

Q2 2015

-6%

Average Sales Price by City - The Top 10

Byron’s massive 82 percent year-over-year gain was more due to one outlying $5 million sale than a sizable-enough data pool to reflect such upward appreciation. The 11 percent gain in Walnut Creek and 8 percent gain in Alamo were more representative of the county’s resilient average sales price performance.

City

Q2 2016

Q2 2015

change

Alamo

$1,893,713

$1,757,647

Blackhawk

$1,805,616

$1,736,660

Diablo

$1,768,750

$2,202,000

-20%

Orinda

$1,584,174

$1,523,100

Lafayette

$1,551,437

$1,662,355

-7%

Byron

$1,536,238

$843,333

82%

< $1000/sqft

Danville

$1,332,451

$1,251,765

< $900/sqft

Moraga

$1,316,202

$1,368,425

-4%

Walnut Creek

$1,123,175

$1,014,668

11%

San Ramon

$1,103,931

$1,065,871

Contra Costa County Single-Family Home Sales Price by Square Foot > $1000/sqft

< $700/sqft < $500/sqft

Page 27 | McGuire Real Estate Quarterly Report - 2nd Quarter 2016

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